HYPERLIQUID · PERPETUAL FUTURES

APE

APE-USD perpetual · 24/7 trading on Hyperliquid

▸ Advanced metrics · M2M bundle

hyperliquid · perp-ape · fresh · feed 2s old
24h sparkline · 60 pts▼ -2.85%
realized vol (ann.)
42.84%
max drawdown
1.47%
sharpe
-48.49
ulcer index
0.80%
RMS drawdown
pain index
0.65%
mean drawdown
mod. VaR 95%
0.02%
Cornish-Fisher
martin ratio
-2594.98
ret / ulcer
CDaR 95%
1.32%
cond. drawdown
gain/pain
0.92
Σgain / Σ|loss|
sterling
-1568.39
ret / CDaR
omega (θ=0)
0.92
upside/downside
roll spread
0.3 bps
implied (price-only)
bars used
2000
store
spread
—
24h Δ
-2.85%
flow lean
—
carry
shorts_pay
-17.36%
signalNEUTRALconfidence 34%
  • 24h change -2.85%
  • funding: shorts pay — perp longs get paid to wait
  • mark cheap vs HL oracle by 15.0bps — long bias
Same bundle via M2M API: /api/m2m/hl-ape/bundle · venue execution: hyperliquid →
LIVEPOLL0SRCFRESH1.7s⏱--:--:-- UTC8NEXT8.0sUP0s--:--HIST0/30
▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC FRESH·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC FRESH·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·
MARK · live
$0.126
24h Δ · live
-2.85%
24h vol · live
$0.2M
APE · live 24h price
n=25 · μ=0.1281 · σ=0.0012 · range [0.1260, 0.1300] · R²=0.907▼ FALLING -2.91%σ LOW 0.97%LAST 0.12600.13000.12900.12800.12700.1260μ = 0.1281max 0.1300min 0.1260dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.91μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxminlive endpoint
25 closes · last $0.13
Funding direction · live
Long fee 48.8%Short fee 51.2%SHORT FEE51.2%
Σ = 0.0%
Σ-sides total = 0.00% (100.00pp arb gap)
H(p) entropy = 1.000 / 1.00 bits (100%) · max uncertainty (~50/50)
Long fee
48.8%▬ +0.00pp
Short fee
51.2%▬ +0.00pp
1h funding -0.001982% · shorts pay
Hourly contract volume · live
n=25 · Σ=1,585,655 · μ=63426.2 · σ=51550.8 · CV=0.81BURSTYcumulative energy ↗ · 50% by h=9049,45398,905148,358197,811μ = 63426197,810.550%h1h5h9h13h17h21h25#1 peak#2-3> μactivequietμ linecum energy
peak 197811 contracts
Live numerics · pulse on poll
LIVE NUMERICS9 metrics·POLL 0
⏱snapshot age
1.7s
$mark $
$0.1261
$mid $
$0.1261
◉prev-day close
$0.1298
Δ24h Δ %
-2.851%
$24h vol $
$194.16k
◐open interest $
$789.96k
%funding (1h)
-0.001982%
%funding (yr)
-17.36%/yr

§1 · 24h time-series

Close price · hourly
n=25 · μ=0.1281 · σ=0.0012 · range [0.1260, 0.1300] · R²=0.907▼ FALLING -2.91%σ LOW 0.97%LAST 0.12600.13000.12900.12800.12700.1260μ = 0.1281max 0.1300min 0.1260dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.91μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
mark $0.1261 · 24h -2.85% · range $[0.1260, 0.1300]
OHLC candles · hourly
n=25 · up 11 · down 14 (44% up) · range [0.1257, 0.1307] · σ=0.0012 · CV=0.01 · bodyµ=42%BEARISH -2.74%CLOSE 0.1260 vs OPEN 0.1295 (-2.74%)&#9660; CLOSE 0.12600.13070.12940.12820.12690.1257μ close = 0.1281O0.130 H0.130 L0.129 C0.130 (+0.17%)O0.130 H0.130 L0.129 C0.130 (+0.17%)O0.130 H0.130 L0.130 C0.130 (+0.12%)O0.130 H0.130 L0.130 C0.130 (+0.12%)O0.130 H0.130 L0.129 C0.130 (+0.05%)O0.130 H0.130 L0.129 C0.130 (+0.05%)O0.130 H0.131 L0.130 C0.130 (-0.01%)O0.130 H0.131 L0.130 C0.130 (-0.01%)O0.130 H0.130 L0.129 C0.129 (-0.60%)O0.130 H0.130 L0.129 C0.129 (-0.60%)O0.129 H0.130 L0.128 C0.129 (-0.67%)O0.129 H0.130 L0.128 C0.129 (-0.67%)O0.129 H0.129 L0.128 C0.128 (-0.26%)O0.129 H0.129 L0.128 C0.128 (-0.26%)O0.128 H0.130 L0.128 C0.129 (+0.62%)O0.128 H0.130 L0.128 C0.129 (+0.62%)O0.129 H0.129 L0.128 C0.128 (-0.53%)O0.129 H0.129 L0.128 C0.128 (-0.53%)O0.129 H0.130 L0.128 C0.129 (+0.54%)O0.129 H0.130 L0.128 C0.129 (+0.54%)O0.129 H0.129 L0.128 C0.129 (-0.56%)O0.129 H0.129 L0.128 C0.129 (-0.56%)O0.129 H0.129 L0.128 C0.128 (-0.19%)O0.129 H0.129 L0.128 C0.128 (-0.19%)O0.128 H0.129 L0.128 C0.128 (-0.48%)O0.128 H0.129 L0.128 C0.128 (-0.48%)O0.128 H0.128 L0.128 C0.128 (+0.02%)O0.128 H0.128 L0.128 C0.128 (+0.02%)O0.128 H0.128 L0.128 C0.128 (+0.07%)O0.128 H0.128 L0.128 C0.128 (+0.07%)O0.128 H0.128 L0.128 C0.128 (+0.21%)O0.128 H0.128 L0.128 C0.128 (+0.21%)O0.128 H0.128 L0.127 C0.128 (-0.49%)O0.128 H0.128 L0.127 C0.128 (-0.49%)O0.128 H0.128 L0.127 C0.127 (-0.17%)O0.128 H0.128 L0.127 C0.127 (-0.17%)O0.127 H0.128 L0.127 C0.127 (-0.35%)O0.127 H0.128 L0.127 C0.127 (-0.35%)O0.127 H0.127 L0.126 C0.126 (-0.48%)O0.127 H0.127 L0.126 C0.126 (-0.48%)O0.126 H0.128 L0.126 C0.127 (+0.63%)O0.126 H0.128 L0.126 C0.127 (+0.63%)O0.127 H0.128 L0.126 C0.127 (+0.18%)O0.127 H0.128 L0.126 C0.127 (+0.18%)-1.1%O0.127 H0.128 L0.126 C0.126 (-1.06%)O0.127 H0.128 L0.126 C0.126 (-1.06%)O0.126 H0.126 L0.126 C0.126 (+0.02%)O0.126 H0.126 L0.126 C0.126 (+0.02%)O0.126 H0.126 L0.126 C0.126 (-0.11%)O0.126 H0.126 L0.126 C0.126 (-0.11%)#1#5#9#13#17#21#25up bar (C≥O)down bar (C<O)MA(5) closeμ closedoji (~no body)biggest body
25 bars
Hourly volume (base units)
n=25 · Σ=1,585,655 · μ=63426.2 · σ=51550.8 · CV=0.81BURSTYcumulative energy &nearr; · 50% by h=9049,45398,905148,358197,811μ = 63426120,531.5 · 60.9% peak120,531.5 · 60.9% peak58,179.1 · 29.4% peak58,179.1 · 29.4% peak46,227.3 · 23.4% peak46,227.3 · 23.4% peak38,919.2 · 19.7% peak38,919.2 · 19.7% peak42,958 · 21.7% peak42,958 · 21.7% peak94,428.6 · 47.7% peak94,428.6 · 47.7% peak197,810.5197,810.5 · 100.0% peak197,810.5 · 100.0% peak143,331.1 · 72.5% peak143,331.1 · 72.5% peak72,428.1 · 36.6% peak72,428.1 · 36.6% peak38,160.4 · 19.3% peak38,160.4 · 19.3% peak31,477.9 · 15.9% peak31,477.9 · 15.9% peak20,285.9 · 10.3% peak20,285.9 · 10.3% peak86,466.9 · 43.7% peak86,466.9 · 43.7% peak81,030.3 · 41.0% peak81,030.3 · 41.0% peak33,680.1 · 17.0% peak33,680.1 · 17.0% peak36,477.7 · 18.4% peak36,477.7 · 18.4% peak33,414.5 · 16.9% peak33,414.5 · 16.9% peak60,402.6 · 30.5% peak60,402.6 · 30.5% peak19,600.6 · 9.9% peak19,600.6 · 9.9% peak43,290.2 · 21.9% peak43,290.2 · 21.9% peak194,003.1 · 98.1% peak194,003.1 · 98.1% peak18,877.3 · 9.5% peak18,877.3 · 9.5% peak47,431.8 · 24.0% peak47,431.8 · 24.0% peak21,177 · 10.7% peak21,177 · 10.7% peak5,065.1 · 2.6% peak5,065.1 · 2.6% peak50%#1#5#9#13#17#21#25#1 peak#2-3> μactivequietμ linecum energy
Σ vol 1585655 · peak 197811 · CV 0.81

§2 · Returns distribution (log-returns)

Histogram of rₜ = ln(pₜ/pₜ₋₁)
n=24 · 12 bins · μ=-0.0012 · σ=0.0040 · skew=0.09 (symmetric) · kurt=-0.39 (mesokurtic)54310 1-95.52bpbin -95.52bp · n=1 · 20.0% peakbin -95.52bp · n=1 · 20.0% peak-81.34bp 1-67.16bpbin -67.16bp · n=1 · 20.0% peakbin -67.16bp · n=1 · 20.0% peak 4-52.98bpbin -52.98bp · n=4 · 80.0% peakbin -52.98bp · n=4 · 80.0% peak 2-38.80bpbin -38.80bp · n=2 · 40.0% peakbin -38.80bp · n=2 · 40.0% peak 1-24.62bpbin -24.62bp · n=1 · 20.0% peakbin -24.62bp · n=1 · 20.0% peak 5-10.44bpbin -10.44bp · n=5 · 100.0% peakbin -10.44bp · n=5 · 100.0% peak 43.74bpbin 3.74bp · n=4 · 80.0% peakbin 3.74bp · n=4 · 80.0% peak 317.92bpbin 17.92bp · n=3 · 60.0% peakbin 17.92bp · n=3 · 60.0% peak32.10bp46.28bp 360.46bpbin 60.46bp · n=3 · 60.0% peakbin 60.46bp · n=3 · 60.0% peakμΔ < 0 · loss barsΔ ≈ 0 · flatΔ > 0 · gain barsN(μ,σ²) referenceμ line · ±σ band shaded
n=24 · positive 9 · negative 15
Q-Q plot · standardised rₜ vs N(0,1)
n=24 · skew=0.10 · kurt=-0.27 · near 22 / mid 2 / far 0 · OLS slope=1.01 intercept=-0.00MATCHES NORMAL · WELL-BEHAVEDUPPER TAIL NORMALLOWER TAIL NORMAL-3σ-3σ-2σ-2σ-1σ-1σ+0σ+0σ+1σ+1σ+2σ+2σ+3σ+3σsample ↓marginal: sample bars + theoretical N(0,1) curve →theoretical Φ⁻¹(p) →↑ sample z-quantile|Δ| < 0.3σ · on the line|Δ| < 1σ · moderate|Δ| ≥ 1σ · outliery = x refOLS fit

§3 · Spot quote

Mark price
$0.1261
Mid price
$0.1261
24h change
-2.85%
Mark–mid spread
2.38 bps
Prev-day close
$0.1298

§4 · Sample moments (prices)

Descriptive statistics · 5-number summary · shape diagnostics
SAMPLE MOMENTS · N=25PLATYKURTIC · THIN TAILS (G₂=-1.10)
μ MEAN0.1281$95% CI: [0.1276$, 0.1286$]
σ STD DEV0.0012$σ² = 0.015×10⁻⁴ · CV = 0.97%
med MEDIAN0.1280$Q₁ 0.1273$ · Q₃ 0.1292$
FIVE-NUMBER SUMMARY · BOX PLOTrange 0.0040$ · IQR 0.0019$ (1.349σ→0.0017$)
min 0.1260$Q₁ 0.1273$med 0.1280$Q₃ 0.1292$max 0.1300$μ
SKEWNESS · G₁-0.100approximately symmetric
−3−10+1+3
EXCESS KURTOSIS · G₂-1.105platykurtic · thin tails
−30+2+4+6
μ ↔ median≈ equal · symmetric|μ−med| / σ = 0.01
σ × 1.349 ↔ IQRconsistent with normalratio = 0.89
range ↔ σconcentrated (range < 4σ)range / σ = 3.20
μ = mean · σ = standard deviation · CV = coefficient of variation. Skew (G₁): >0 right-skewed. Kurt (G₂, excess): >0 leptokurtic. 95% CI = μ ± 1.96·SE.

§5 · Returns analytics (log-returns)

Risk-adjusted performance · log-returns
RETURNS · RISK-ADJUSTEDUNPROFITABLE · SR=-27.32
μᵣ MEAN / h-0.122869%drift is negative per h · |μ|/σ = 0.292
σᵣ STD / h0.420909%σ²ᵣ = 0.177×10⁻⁴ · CV = 3.43×
σ ANNUALISED39.39%/yrscaled by √8760 (hourly→yearly) · 0.421%/h base
RISK-ADJUSTED PERFORMANCEhigher = better edge per unit risk
SHARPE (annualised)-27.32negative edge
-2-10+1+2+3+4
SORTINO (annualised)-25.14downside drag
-2-10+1+2+3+4
CALMAR (return / max-DD)-100.00drawdown overwhelms returns
-20+2+4+6
RETURN-DISTRIBUTION SHAPE|skew| < 0.5 ≈ symmetric · |kurt| < 1 ≈ mesokurtic
SKEWNESS · G₁0.11approximately symmetric
-3-10+1+3
EXCESS KURTOSIS · G₂-0.04mesokurtic · normal-like tails
-30+2+4+6
SORTINO vs SHARPEdownside vol < total vol · favourableSoR / SR = 0.92
CALMAR · DD CONTROLdrawdown > returns · adverseCR = -100.00
EXPECTED EDGE-1076.34%/yr driftμ × 8760 = annualised expectation
rₜ = ln(pₜ/pₜ₋₁). σ × √8760 = annualised. Sharpe = μ/σ scaled; Sortino uses downside-only vol; Calmar = annual return / max drawdown.

§6 · Risk metrics

Tail risk + drawdown · downside diagnostics
TAIL & DRAWDOWN RISKELEVATED · 95% VaR 0.60%
VaR₉₅ (h)0.604%5% prob of larger adverse h move
VaR₉₉ (h)0.929%1% prob · extreme-tail threshold
ES₉₅ (CVaR)0.815%expected loss given 5% tail event
MAX DRAWDOWN3.06%21h from peak to trough
TAIL-RISK LADDER (h losses)larger negative = worse · markers show severity
0 · no lossVaR₉₅−0.604%VaR₉₉−0.929%ES₉₅−0.815%worst tail ←→ zero loss
MAX DRAWDOWN PROFILEmoderate drawdown · 21h duration
PEAK13.00$
−3.06% drawdown over 21h
12.60$TROUGH
ES / VaR · TAIL THICKNESSmild tail heaviness|ES₉₅| / |VaR₉₅| = 1.35× (normal ≈ 1.25)
VaR₉₉ / VaR₉₅ · CONCENTRATIONmoderate extreme-tail concentrationratio = 1.54× (normal ≈ 1.41)
DRAWDOWN · CAPITAL DURATIONmoderate drawdownrecovery needed: +3.16% (compounding)
VaR = quantile loss · ES (CVaR) = expected loss conditional on tail · DD = peak-to-trough decline. Under normality ES₉₅/VaR₉₅ ≈ 1.25; ratio > 1.5 ⇒ fat-tail regime.

§7 · Technicals

RSI(14)
30.8 · neutral
Bollinger %B
0.080 · within band
Bollinger upper
$0.1296
Bollinger MA
$0.1276
Bollinger lower
$0.1257

§8 · Time-series structure

Regime & autocorrelation diagnostics
TIME-SERIES STRUCTUREREGIME: MEAN-REVERTING · ρ(1) -0.35 + ADF rejected
ρ(1) AUTOCORR-0.353within white-noise band
ρ(2) AUTOCORR-0.106lag-2 not significant
H · HURST EXPONENT0.840strongly persistent
OLS TREND · t-STAT-14.997significant @ α=0.05
HURST EXPONENT [0, 1]strongly persistent · H = 0.840
H = 0.840STRONGLY PERSISTENT
0
anti-persistent0.45
mean-reverting0.5
random walk0.55
persistent1
strongly trending
AUTOCORRELATION FUNCTION · ρ(k) for k=1..5WHITE NOISE · no significant lags
k=1-0.353k=2-0.106k=3-0.095k=4-0.027k=5-0.1220+1−1+0.41−0.41+ momentum (ρ > +0.41)− reversal (ρ < −0.41)noise (within band)±2/√n threshold
OLS TREND · t-STAT · [-5, +5]SIGNIFICANT @ 1% (|t|=15.00)
−5 reject−1.960 retain H₀+1.96+5 reject
REGIME CLASSIFICATIONMEAN-REVERTING · ρ(1) -0.35 + ADF rejectedfrom Hurst + ρ(1) joint diagnosis
PREDICTABILITY · score 1.00very high · strong structure|ρ(1)| + 2·|H − 0.5| heuristic
TREND SIGNIFICANCESIGNIFICANT @ 1% (|t|=15.00)α=0.05 critical |t|=1.96 · α=0.01 |t|=2.58
ρ(k) = lag-k sample autocorrelation · H = R/S Hurst exponent · t = OLS-trend t-statistic. Significance bands at ±2/√n approximate the 95% white-noise envelope. α=0.05 critical |t|=1.96; α=0.01 |t|=2.58.

§9 · Microstructure

24h volume (USD)
$194.16k
Open interest (USD)
$789.96k
Vol / OI (turnover)
0.25x
1h funding
-0.001982%
Funding (annualised)
-17.36%/yr

§10 · Position sizing

Continuous Kelly (μ/σ²)
-10.000× leverage · optimal log-utility leverage
Half-Kelly
-5.000× · industry-standard conservative
Quarter-Kelly
-2.500×

§11 · Hourly return heatmap

24-hour signed Δln-r grid · green = up · red = down
HOURLY RETURN HEATMAP · n=24 bars · best 0.68% · worst -1.03% · typical |Δ| 0.33%BEARISH SESSION -2.95%BEST+0.68%19hWORST-1.03%10hTYPICAL |Δ|0.33%mean absoluteCUMULATIVE-2.95%Σ signed ΔSTREAK↘ 1down-runASIA · 00-08 UTCμ -0.19% · Σ -1.53%EUROPE · 08-16 UTCμ -0.02% · Σ -0.12%US · 16-24 UTCμ -0.16% · Σ -1.29%CUMULATIVE Δ PATH · final -2.95%+0.16%-2.95%0.14% · 13h0.14% · 13h0.14%13h-0.05% · 14h-0.05% · 14h-0.05%14h0.08% · 15h0.08% · 15h0.08%15h-0.46% · 16h-0.46% · 16h-0.46%16h-0.60% · 17h-0.60% · 17h-0.60%17h-0.17% · 18h-0.17% · 18h-0.17%18h0.68% · 19h0.68% · 19h0.68%19h★ BEST-0.60% · 20h-0.60% · 20h-0.60%20h0.61% · 21h0.61% · 21h0.61%21h-0.57% · 22h-0.57% · 22h-0.57%22h-0.17% · 23h-0.17% · 23h-0.17%23h-0.40% · 00h-0.40% · 00h-0.40%00h0.04% · 01h0.04% · 01h0.04%01h-0.01% · 02h-0.01% · 02h-0.01%02h0.19% · 03h0.19% · 03h0.19%03h-0.43% · 04h-0.43% · 04h-0.43%04h-0.05% · 05h-0.05% · 05h-0.05%05h-0.31% · 06h-0.31% · 06h-0.31%06h-0.55% · 07h-0.55% · 07h-0.55%07h0.61% · 08h0.61% · 08h0.61%08h0.19% · 09h0.19% · 09h0.19%09h-1.03% · 10h-1.03% · 10h-1.03%10h▼ WORST0.02% · 11h0.02% · 11h0.02%11h-0.07% · 12h-0.07% · 12h-0.07%12hTIME PATTERNEurope-led (+-0.12%)RUNSup max 2 · down max 4BREADTH38% up · 63% down
9 up bars · 15 down · best 0.68% · worst -1.03% · typical |Δ| 0.335%

§12 · Equity curve & underwater drawdown

Cumulative compounded return + running peak-to-trough
EQUITY & DRAWDOWN ANALYSIS · n=25 barsLOSS WITH MODERATE DD (-2.93%)FINAL-2.93%MAX DD-3.08%RECOVERYONGOING · 21 barsMAX RUN-UP+0.16%UNDERWATER22/25 (88%)STREAK↘ 1EQUITY CURVE · end 0.9707 · peak 1.0016 · range [0.9707, 1.0016]1.00160.9707break-even = 1★ PEAK 1.0016UNDERWATER DRAWDOWN · max -3.08% · moderate0%-3.08%▼ TROUGH -3.08%TOP DRAWDOWN PERIODS · 2 total#1 -3.08%bar 5-25 · 21 bars · ONGOING#2 -0.05%bar 3-3 · 1 bars · recoveredDD SEVERITYmoderate (max -3.08%)RECOVERYongoing · 21 barsTIME UNDER WATER88% of session · 22/25 bars
final equity 0.9707 (-2.93%) · max DD -3.08% · time-under-water 22/25 bars

§13 · Rolling-window statistics (w = 6 bars)

Rolling annualised Sharpe ratio · green positive · red negative
n=19 · +0 / −19 (0% positive) · μ=-30.68 · σ=16.26UNPROFITABLE STRATEGYLAST -22.74 (+0.49σ vs μ)64.7832.390.00-32.39-64.78μ = -30.68-56.39-56.39-18.61-18.61-34.05-34.05-14.45-14.45-16.94-16.94-6.29-6.29-12.21-12.21-37.00-37.00-18.86-18.86-50.27-50.27-49.07-49.07-41.64-41.64-39.16-39.16-64.78-64.78-19.99-19.99-19.94-19.94-31.33-31.33-29.20-29.20-22.74-22.74v > 0 · positivev < 0 · negativeμ mean lineμ ± σ bandlatest bar (outlined)
latest -22.744 · range [-64.78, -6.29] · μ -30.680 · positive Sharpe = excess-return-per-risk earned by buying-and-holding through this window
Rolling annualised volatility (%)
n=19 · μ=41.1355 · σ=12.6520 · range [21.6565, 56.8077] · R²=0.001▲ RISING +92.86%σ EXTREME 30.76%LAST 53.790056.807748.019939.232130.444321.6565μ = 41.1355max 56.8077min 21.6565dataMA(3)OLS R²=0.00μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
latest 53.79% · range [21.66%, 56.81%] · μ 41.14% · σ̂ scaled to annualised (×√8760)
Rolling lag-1 autocorrelation ρ(1)
n=19 · +3 / −16 (16% positive) · μ=-0.268 · σ=0.266MEAN-REVERSIONLAST -0.292 (-0.09σ vs μ)0.7240.3620.000-0.362-0.724μ = -0.2680.2620.2620.1120.112-0.248-0.248-0.329-0.329-0.591-0.591-0.724-0.724-0.608-0.608-0.661-0.661-0.352-0.3520.1030.103-0.228-0.228-0.355-0.355-0.301-0.301-0.064-0.064-0.356-0.356-0.047-0.047-0.167-0.167-0.258-0.258-0.292-0.292v > 0 · positivev < 0 · negativeμ mean lineμ ± σ bandlatest bar (outlined)
latest -0.292 · |ρ| > 0.3 ⇒ regime with persistence (ρ > 0) or reversal (ρ < 0) · |ρ| ≤ 0.1 = consistent with random walk

§14 · Hypothesis tests (α = 0.05)

Formal inference at 5% significance
1 of 6 REJECT · mixed evidence1 reject·5 pass·α = 0.05
𝒩

Jarque-Bera

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Δln-r ~ Normal(μ, σ²)

STATISTIC
0.0479
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.9763
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainednormality not rejected
ρ

Ljung-Box(h=5)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: No serial autocorrelation up to lag 5

STATISTIC
4.4749
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.4846
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedconsistent with white noise
Ψ

Dickey-Fuller (τ_μ)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: p has a unit root (non-stationary)

STATISTIC
-0.8094
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.8141
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedrandom-walk behaviour (crit ≈ -2.86)
±

Wald-Wolfowitz runs

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Sign sequence of Δ is random

STATISTIC
1.6748
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.0940
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedsigns appear random (16 runs)
χ

KPSS (μ stationarity)

REJECT H₀**

H₀: p IS level-stationary

STATISTIC
0.8986
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.0041
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p < α · rejection zonenon-stationary (crit 0.463)
χ

Variance ratio q=3

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Δln-r is a random walk · VR = 1

STATISTIC
-1.7067
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.0879
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedVR 0.481 ≈ 1 (RW behaviour)
Each row states an explicit null H₀, the test statistic, an approximated p-value, and the decision. REJECT means evidence against H₀. KPSS complements ADF (rejecting both ⇒ ambiguous; rejecting one ⇒ clean verdict).

§15 · Spectral analysis (DFT periodogram)

Power spectrum of Δln-r · ‖X̂(k)‖²/n
n=12 bins · noise floor μ=1.98e-5 · top T=2.00h (28.8%) · top-3 cover 63.3%2 SIGNIFICANT CYCLEScumulative energy ↗ (2 bins above 2× noise)6.8e-55.1e-53.4e-51.7e-50.0e+0μ noise floor2× noise (significance)period 24.0 · power 9.51e-8 · 0.0% energyperiod 24.0 · power 9.51e-8 · 0.0% energyperiod 12.0 · power 2.38e-7 · 0.1% energyperiod 12.0 · power 2.38e-7 · 0.1% energyperiod 8.0 · power 4.12e-6 · 1.7% energyperiod 8.0 · power 4.12e-6 · 1.7% energyperiod 6.0 · power 4.38e-5 · 18.4% energyperiod 6.0 · power 4.38e-5 · 18.4% energyperiod 4.8 · power 6.93e-6 · 2.9% energyperiod 4.8 · power 6.93e-6 · 2.9% energyperiod 4.0 · power 2.66e-6 · 1.1% energyperiod 4.0 · power 2.66e-6 · 1.1% energyperiod 3.4 · power 3.84e-5 · 16.1% energyperiod 3.4 · power 3.84e-5 · 16.1% energyperiod 3.0 · power 1.67e-5 · 7.0% energyperiod 3.0 · power 1.67e-5 · 7.0% energyperiod 2.7 · power 3.14e-5 · 13.2% energyperiod 2.7 · power 3.14e-5 · 13.2% energyperiod 2.4 · power 1.02e-5 · 4.3% energyperiod 2.4 · power 1.02e-5 · 4.3% energyperiod 2.2 · power 1.49e-5 · 6.3% energyperiod 2.2 · power 1.49e-5 · 6.3% energyperiod 2.0 · power 6.84e-5 · 28.8% energyperiod 2.0 · power 6.84e-5 · 28.8% energy50% by T=2.7h#1 dominantT=2.00h#2T=6.00h#3T=3.43hT=2hT=3hT=4hT=6hT=8hT=12hT=16hT=24h← shorter cycle (high freq · Nyquist=½) · period T (bars per cycle) · longer cycle (low freq · 1/n) →#1 dominant#2 peak#3 peak> 2× noisenoiseμ floor2μ sig.cum energy
dominant period ≈ 2.00h (freq 0.500) · concentrates 28.8% of total energy · Σ|X̂|²/n = 2.380e-4

▸ Depth section using sovereign-store price series (5000 bars · effective 5257847 bars/year) — annualisation reflects native polling cadence, not upstream timeframes.

§16 · NOSTRADAMUS continuous quant — perp leverage & bootstrap MC

Continuous-price extension of the prediction-market quant module. Kelly growth on observed returns (Merton μ/σ² parametric vs argmax empirical), Monte-Carlo equity fan bootstrapped from the historical return distribution at quarter-Kelly leverage, and an annualized return decomposition. Sweep parameters in the simulator.

§17 · Continuous Kelly

Continuous-Kelly growth · g(f) = E[ln(1 + f·r)]
NO LONG EDGE · μ -0.000% per barparametric μ/σ² short edge (μ<0) · μ -0.000% · σ 0.02%
μ per barmean
-0.000%
σ per barvol
0.02%
Empirical f★argmax g(f)
0.00×
from observed distribution
Parametric f★μ/σ²
-82.68×
Merton continuous-time
Half-Kelly½ f★
0.00×
~⅔ of full growth, half the variance
Quarter-Kelly¼ f★
0.00×
industry default — survives model error
-0.00%0.02%0.05%0.07%0.10%0.0×1.6×3.2×4.8×6.4×8.0×leverage fraction fexpected log-growth per bar
g(f) empiricalf★ argmaxparametric f★
Maximum expected log-growth from leveraging the historical return distribution. Empirical f★ argmaxes the sample expectation; parametric f★ = μ/σ² is Merton's continuous-time optimum.

§18 · MC equity fan

Bootstrapped equity fan at 0.10× leverage
Median CAGR/bar -0.000% · annualized Sharpe -32.03400 paths × 720 bars · leverage 0.10× · bootstrap from 4999 observed returns
Sharpe / barμ/σ
-0.014
annualized -32.03
μ per barafter L
-0.000%
σ per barafter L
0.00%
VaR 95%5%
0.00%
per-bar worst-case
CVaR 95%ES
0.00%
mean tail loss
Max DD (median)MDD
-0.0%
0.95×0.97×0.99×1.01×1.03×1.05×0120240360480600720startbar #equity multiple
median25/75 band5/95 band
Median path with 25/75 and 5/95 percentile bands across 400 simulated careers. Bars resample with replacement from the observed return distribution — preserves fat tails the parametric model misses.

§19 · Annualized breakdown

Annualized return components
APR -1000% · APY -100% · Sharpe -36.44σ ann 44% · Sortino -24.61 · n 4999 · ⚠ capped (n=4999 too small to support 8760-bar projection)
-4373%-3488%-2603%-1718%-832%53%-1000.0%APR (simple)-100.0%APY (compound)44.1%Ann. vol σ-3644.3%Sharpe (ann)-2460.8%Sortino (ann)
Simple APR vs compounded APY · annualized volatility · risk-adjusted Sharpe and Sortino. All scaled by √(periods/yr).

§20 · GARCH(1,1) volatility band

GARCH(1,1) · conditional vol envelope (±2σ)
GARCH persistence α+β = 0.980· σ̂ₜ = 1.000% · long-run σ = 2.236%
0.1210.1230.1260.1280.1310.133t-4999t-4166t-3333t-2500t-1666t-833t-0

Persistence near 1 ⇒ vol clusters strongly (slow mean reversion). Long-run σ is the unconditional target the conditional vol orbits. The ±2σ band reflects time-varying scale, unlike a flat-vol band.

Time-varying volatility band fitted to the price series. Persistence α+β > 0.98 means vol shocks decay slowly — recent moves stay relevant.

§∞ · Provenance & attestation

Upstream
api.hyperliquid.xyz
Snapshot fetched
2026-06-14 12:17:46 UTC
Snapshot age
1.7s
History points
25 hourly closes
Page rendered
2026-06-14 12:17:48 UTC
Storage policy
no persistence — fetched on every request
SHA-256 attestation
580b4eed348a86cfd3e3aa5438817601d1844ebf0be52749641292a71781ffeb · deterministic hash of the source snapshot — proves this page was rendered from this exact data
Open data licence
CC0 / public domain · free to mirror, syndicate, analyse

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Also see: /arb opportunities · RSS feed

Market depth

▸ live order book · Hyperliquid perp
Depth within 1bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Depth within 5bp
$2.65K
bid $972 · ask $1.68K
Depth within 10bp
$15.89K
bid $11.93K · ask $3.96K
Depth within 50bp
$66.04K
bid $27.14K · ask $38.90K
Mid price
0.126095
(best bid + best ask) / 2
Spread
5.6bp
(bestAsk − bestBid) / mid
Imbalance (whole book)
-0.176
ask-heavy
Imbalance (top-5)
+0.193
bid-heavy top-of-book

Slippage scenarios

▸ live book walk · Hyperliquid perp

Simulating a market order at three notionals against the live book. Slippage = avg execution price vs. mid, in basis points. Worst fill = price of the deepest level touched. Live JSON: /api/asset/hl-ape/slippage?size=10000&side=buy

SideNotionalAvg fillSlippageWorst fillLevelsStatus
BUY$1.00K0.1261383.38bp0.1261503FILLED
BUY$10.00K0.12623711.28bp0.12629011FILLED
BUY$100.00K0.12634820.03bp0.12644020PARTIAL
SELL$1.00K0.1260463.91bp0.1260304FILLED
SELL$10.00K0.1259888.45bp0.1259707FILLED
SELL$100.00K0.12588616.57bp0.12572020PARTIAL

Funding carry

▸ SHORTS PAY · longs receive
Hourly funding
-1.982e-5
-0.00198% / hr
Annualised APR
-17.370%
hourly · 24 · 365.25
Long: days to 1% carry
21.0d
longs receive
Short: days to 1% carry
21.0d
shorts pay
SideDirectionAnnualised carryDays → 1%Days → 10%
LONGRECEIVE17.370%21.0d210.3d
SHORTPAY-17.370%21.0d210.3d

/api/asset/hl-ape/carry · same metrics, JSON

Volume profile

▸ real volume · Hyperliquid candlesstep $ 1 · 25 records
Price binBarsVolumeDistribution
$0.000000–$1.0000★25$1.59M

★ POC = Point of Control (highest-volume bin). Live JSON: /api/asset/hl-ape/volprofile?priceStep=1

Order flow

▸ ASK-LEAN · -0.140 · Hyperliquid candles
Bars (buy / sell)
9 / 15
1 unclassified
Buy weight
$630.16K
real volume
Sell weight
$834.97K
real volume
Net delta
$204.81K
sellers net
Imbalance
-13.98%
(buy − sell) / (buy + sell)
Toxicity (VPIN)
14.0%
two-sided / balanced
Impact (|Δp|/vol)
—
needs real volume

Sparkline = cumulative delta over the 25-record window./api/asset/hl-ape/flow?rollingWindow=30

Cascade clusters

▸ DOWN · 5 found · deepest 1.34% · Hyperliquid candles

Price-only proxy for forced-unwind clusters. No exchange liquidation feed is wired — read each row as a candidate event, not a confirmed liquidation.

#WindowDurationPeak → TroughDrawdownBars
#12026-06-14 06:00:00Z1.0h0.128050→0.1263301.343%2
#22026-06-13 17:00:00Z1.0h0.129950→0.1283501.231%2
#32026-06-13 22:00:00Z3.0h0.129240→0.1277701.137%4

/api/asset/hl-ape/cascades?windowMs=10800000&minDrawdownPct=0.005 · full list + parameters in JSON

Risk metrics

▸ sovereign store · 5,000 barsperiods/year ≈ 5.26M
Realized vol (annualised)
44.08%
σ per bar = 0.000192
Mean return (annualised)
-1606.31%
μ per bar = -0.000003
Sharpe (rf=0)
-36.44
annualised; risk-free assumed zero
Max drawdown
1.87%
peak 0.13 → trough 0.13 over 4424 bars

/api/asset/hl-ape/risk · same metrics, JSON