HYPERLIQUID · PERPETUAL FUTURES

ANIME

ANIME-USD perpetual · 24/7 trading on Hyperliquid

▸ Advanced metrics · M2M bundle

hyperliquid · perp-anime · fresh · feed 3s old
24h sparkline · 60 pts▼ -1.27%
realized vol (ann.)
46.85%
max drawdown
0.88%
sharpe
22.85
ulcer index
0.40%
RMS drawdown
pain index
0.34%
mean drawdown
mod. VaR 95%
0.03%
Cornish-Fisher
martin ratio
2661.78
ret / ulcer
CDaR 95%
0.78%
cond. drawdown
gain/pain
1.05
Σgain / Σ|loss|
sterling
1369.30
ret / CDaR
omega (θ=0)
1.05
upside/downside
roll spread
0.0 bps
implied (price-only)
bars used
2000
store
spread
—
24h Δ
-1.27%
flow lean
—
carry
longs_pay
3.35%
signalSHORTconfidence 39%suggested side: SELL
  • 24h change -1.27%
  • funding: longs pay — perp shorts get paid to wait
  • mark cheap vs HL oracle by 6.8bps — long bias
Same bundle via M2M API: /api/m2m/hl-anime/bundle · venue execution: hyperliquid →
LIVEPOLL0SRCFRESH2.7s⏱--:--:-- UTC8NEXT8.0sUP0s--:--HIST0/30
▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC FRESH·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC FRESH·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·
MARK · live
$0.003
24h Δ · live
-1.27%
24h vol · live
$0.1M
ANIME · live 24h price
n=25 · μ=0.0030 · σ=0.0000 · range [0.0029, 0.0030] · R²=0.725▼ FALLING -1.20%σ LOW 0.87%LAST 0.00300.00300.00300.00300.00290.0029μ = 0.0030max 0.0030min 0.0029dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.72μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxminlive endpoint
25 closes · last $0.00
Funding direction · live
Long fee 44.2%Short fee 55.8%SHORT FEE55.8%
Σ = 0.0%
Σ-sides total = 0.00% (100.00pp arb gap)
H(p) entropy = 0.990 / 1.00 bits (99%) · max uncertainty (~50/50)
Long fee
44.2%▬ +0.00pp
Short fee
55.8%▬ +0.00pp
1h funding 0.000382% · longs pay
Hourly contract volume · live
n=25 · Σ=51,230,217 · μ=2049208.7 · σ=1326047.6 · CV=0.65STEADY FLOWcumulative energy ↗ · 50% by h=1301,656,5943,313,1884,969,7816,626,375μ = 20492096,626,37550%h1h5h9h13h17h21h25#1 peak#2-3> μactivequietμ linecum energy
peak 6626375 contracts
Live numerics · pulse on poll
LIVE NUMERICS9 metrics·POLL 0
⏱snapshot age
2.7s
$mark $
$0.003
$mid $
$0.003
◉prev-day close
$0.003
Δ24h Δ %
-1.271%
$24h vol $
$149.92k
◐open interest $
$129.94k
%funding (1h)
0.000382%
%funding (yr)
+3.35%/yr

§1 · 24h time-series

Close price · hourly
n=25 · μ=0.0030 · σ=0.0000 · range [0.0029, 0.0030] · R²=0.725▼ FALLING -1.20%σ LOW 0.87%LAST 0.00300.00300.00300.00300.00290.0029μ = 0.0030max 0.0030min 0.0029dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.72μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
mark $0.0030 · 24h -1.27% · range $[0.0029, 0.0030]
OHLC candles · hourly
n=25 · up 11 · down 14 (44% up) · range [0.0029, 0.0030] · σ=0.0000 · CV=0.01 · bodyµ=48%BEARISH -1.24%CLOSE 0.0030 vs OPEN 0.0030 (-1.24%)&#9660; CLOSE 0.00300.00300.00300.00300.00290.0029μ close = 0.0030O0.003 H0.003 L0.003 C0.003 (-0.03%)O0.003 H0.003 L0.003 C0.003 (-0.03%)O0.003 H0.003 L0.003 C0.003 (+0.03%)O0.003 H0.003 L0.003 C0.003 (+0.03%)O0.003 H0.003 L0.003 C0.003 (+0.17%)O0.003 H0.003 L0.003 C0.003 (+0.17%)O0.003 H0.003 L0.003 C0.003 (+0.70%)O0.003 H0.003 L0.003 C0.003 (+0.70%)O0.003 H0.003 L0.003 C0.003 (-0.30%)O0.003 H0.003 L0.003 C0.003 (-0.30%)O0.003 H0.003 L0.003 C0.003 (-0.37%)O0.003 H0.003 L0.003 C0.003 (-0.37%)O0.003 H0.003 L0.003 C0.003 (-0.27%)O0.003 H0.003 L0.003 C0.003 (-0.27%)O0.003 H0.003 L0.003 C0.003 (+0.47%)O0.003 H0.003 L0.003 C0.003 (+0.47%)O0.003 H0.003 L0.003 C0.003 (-0.30%)O0.003 H0.003 L0.003 C0.003 (-0.30%)O0.003 H0.003 L0.003 C0.003 (+0.77%)O0.003 H0.003 L0.003 C0.003 (+0.77%)O0.003 H0.003 L0.003 C0.003 (-0.66%)O0.003 H0.003 L0.003 C0.003 (-0.66%)O0.003 H0.003 L0.003 C0.003 (+0.20%)O0.003 H0.003 L0.003 C0.003 (+0.20%)-1.0%O0.003 H0.003 L0.003 C0.003 (-0.97%)O0.003 H0.003 L0.003 C0.003 (-0.97%)O0.003 H0.003 L0.003 C0.003 (+0.20%)O0.003 H0.003 L0.003 C0.003 (+0.20%)O0.003 H0.003 L0.003 C0.003 (-0.20%)O0.003 H0.003 L0.003 C0.003 (-0.20%)O0.003 H0.003 L0.003 C0.003 (+0.17%)O0.003 H0.003 L0.003 C0.003 (+0.17%)O0.003 H0.003 L0.003 C0.003 (-0.44%)O0.003 H0.003 L0.003 C0.003 (-0.44%)O0.003 H0.003 L0.003 C0.003 (-0.10%)O0.003 H0.003 L0.003 C0.003 (-0.10%)O0.003 H0.003 L0.003 C0.003 (-0.34%)O0.003 H0.003 L0.003 C0.003 (-0.34%)O0.003 H0.003 L0.003 C0.003 (-0.54%)O0.003 H0.003 L0.003 C0.003 (-0.54%)O0.003 H0.003 L0.003 C0.003 (+0.55%)O0.003 H0.003 L0.003 C0.003 (+0.55%)O0.003 H0.003 L0.003 C0.003 (-0.17%)O0.003 H0.003 L0.003 C0.003 (-0.17%)O0.003 H0.003 L0.003 C0.003 (-0.58%)O0.003 H0.003 L0.003 C0.003 (-0.58%)O0.003 H0.003 L0.003 C0.003 (+0.82%)O0.003 H0.003 L0.003 C0.003 (+0.82%)O0.003 H0.003 L0.003 C0.003 (+0.41%)O0.003 H0.003 L0.003 C0.003 (+0.41%)#1#5#9#13#17#21#25up bar (C≥O)down bar (C<O)MA(5) closeμ closedoji (~no body)biggest body
25 bars
Hourly volume (base units)
n=25 · Σ=51,230,217 · μ=2049208.7 · σ=1326047.6 · CV=0.65STEADY FLOWcumulative energy &nearr; · 50% by h=1301,656,5943,313,1884,969,7816,626,375μ = 20492091,554,689 · 23.5% peak1,554,689 · 23.5% peak1,227,259 · 18.5% peak1,227,259 · 18.5% peak1,241,744 · 18.7% peak1,241,744 · 18.7% peak835,382 · 12.6% peak835,382 · 12.6% peak6,626,3756,626,375 · 100.0% peak6,626,375 · 100.0% peak1,491,313 · 22.5% peak1,491,313 · 22.5% peak1,395,806 · 21.1% peak1,395,806 · 21.1% peak1,707,257 · 25.8% peak1,707,257 · 25.8% peak2,452,526 · 37.0% peak2,452,526 · 37.0% peak2,305,121 · 34.8% peak2,305,121 · 34.8% peak1,477,006 · 22.3% peak1,477,006 · 22.3% peak2,146,052 · 32.4% peak2,146,052 · 32.4% peak3,984,972 · 60.1% peak3,984,972 · 60.1% peak3,344,143 · 50.5% peak3,344,143 · 50.5% peak1,296,967 · 19.6% peak1,296,967 · 19.6% peak1,774,829 · 26.8% peak1,774,829 · 26.8% peak2,032,585 · 30.7% peak2,032,585 · 30.7% peak1,839,251 · 27.8% peak1,839,251 · 27.8% peak4,420,360 · 66.7% peak4,420,360 · 66.7% peak648,378 · 9.8% peak648,378 · 9.8% peak2,331,520 · 35.2% peak2,331,520 · 35.2% peak1,871,510 · 28.2% peak1,871,510 · 28.2% peak1,323,700 · 20.0% peak1,323,700 · 20.0% peak1,092,966 · 16.5% peak1,092,966 · 16.5% peak808,506 · 12.2% peak808,506 · 12.2% peak50%#1#5#9#13#17#21#25#1 peak#2-3> μactivequietμ linecum energy
Σ vol 51230217 · peak 6626375 · CV 0.65

§2 · Returns distribution (log-returns)

Histogram of rₜ = ln(pₜ/pₜ₋₁)
n=24 · 12 bins · μ=-0.0005 · σ=0.0045 · skew=0.23 (symmetric) · kurt=-1.28 (platykurtic (thin tails))54310 1-77.11bpbin -77.11bp · n=1 · 20.0% peakbin -77.11bp · n=1 · 20.0% peak 2-63.73bpbin -63.73bp · n=2 · 40.0% peakbin -63.73bp · n=2 · 40.0% peak 2-50.35bpbin -50.35bp · n=2 · 40.0% peakbin -50.35bp · n=2 · 40.0% peak 5-36.97bpbin -36.97bp · n=5 · 100.0% peakbin -36.97bp · n=5 · 100.0% peak 2-23.59bpbin -23.59bp · n=2 · 40.0% peakbin -23.59bp · n=2 · 40.0% peak 2-10.21bpbin -10.21bp · n=2 · 40.0% peakbin -10.21bp · n=2 · 40.0% peak3.17bp 116.55bpbin 16.55bp · n=1 · 20.0% peakbin 16.55bp · n=1 · 20.0% peak 429.93bpbin 29.93bp · n=4 · 80.0% peakbin 29.93bp · n=4 · 80.0% peak 143.31bpbin 43.31bp · n=1 · 20.0% peakbin 43.31bp · n=1 · 20.0% peak 256.69bpbin 56.69bp · n=2 · 40.0% peakbin 56.69bp · n=2 · 40.0% peak 270.07bpbin 70.07bp · n=2 · 40.0% peakbin 70.07bp · n=2 · 40.0% peakμΔ < 0 · loss barsΔ ≈ 0 · flatΔ > 0 · gain barsN(μ,σ²) referenceμ line · ±σ band shaded
n=24 · positive 10 · negative 14
Q-Q plot · standardised rₜ vs N(0,1)
n=24 · skew=0.28 · kurt=-1.07 · near 21 / mid 3 / far 0 · OLS slope=1.00 intercept=-0.00APPROXIMATELY NORMALUPPER TAIL NORMALLOWER TAIL NORMAL-3σ-3σ-2σ-2σ-1σ-1σ+0σ+0σ+1σ+1σ+2σ+2σ+3σ+3σsample ↓marginal: sample bars + theoretical N(0,1) curve →theoretical Φ⁻¹(p) →↑ sample z-quantile|Δ| < 0.3σ · on the line|Δ| < 1σ · moderate|Δ| ≥ 1σ · outliery = x refOLS fit

§3 · Spot quote

Mark price
$0.003
Mid price
$0.003
24h change
-1.27%
Mark–mid spread
0.00 bps
Prev-day close
$0.003

§4 · Sample moments (prices)

Descriptive statistics · 5-number summary · shape diagnostics
SAMPLE MOMENTS · N=25PLATYKURTIC · THIN TAILS (G₂=-1.19)
μ MEAN0.0030$95% CI: [0.0030$, 0.0030$]
σ STD DEV0.0000$σ² = 0.000×10⁻⁴ · CV = 0.87%
med MEDIAN0.0030$Q₁ 0.0029$ · Q₃ 0.0030$
FIVE-NUMBER SUMMARY · BOX PLOTrange 0.0001$ · IQR 0.0000$ (1.349σ→0.0000$)
min 0.0029$Q₁ 0.0029$med 0.0030$Q₃ 0.0030$max 0.0030$μ
SKEWNESS · G₁-0.360approximately symmetric
−3−10+1+3
EXCESS KURTOSIS · G₂-1.190platykurtic · thin tails
−30+2+4+6
μ ↔ medianμ < med · left-tailed|μ−med| / σ = 0.29
σ × 1.349 ↔ IQRconsistent with normalratio = 0.89
range ↔ σconcentrated (range < 4σ)range / σ = 3.42
μ = mean · σ = standard deviation · CV = coefficient of variation. Skew (G₁): >0 right-skewed. Kurt (G₂, excess): >0 leptokurtic. 95% CI = μ ± 1.96·SE.

§5 · Returns analytics (log-returns)

Risk-adjusted performance · log-returns
RETURNS · RISK-ADJUSTEDUNPROFITABLE · SR=-10.13
μᵣ MEAN / h-0.050506%drift is negative per h · |μ|/σ = 0.108
σᵣ STD / h0.466595%σ²ᵣ = 0.218×10⁻⁴ · CV = 9.24×
σ ANNUALISED43.67%/yrscaled by √8760 (hourly→yearly) · 0.467%/h base
RISK-ADJUSTED PERFORMANCEhigher = better edge per unit risk
SHARPE (annualised)-10.13negative edge
-2-10+1+2+3+4
SORTINO (annualised)-10.70downside drag
-2-10+1+2+3+4
CALMAR (return / max-DD)-100.00drawdown overwhelms returns
-20+2+4+6
RETURN-DISTRIBUTION SHAPE|skew| < 0.5 ≈ symmetric · |kurt| < 1 ≈ mesokurtic
SKEWNESS · G₁0.29approximately symmetric
-3-10+1+3
EXCESS KURTOSIS · G₂-1.04platykurtic · thin tails
-30+2+4+6
SORTINO vs SHARPEdownside vol < total vol · favourableSoR / SR = 1.06
CALMAR · DD CONTROLdrawdown > returns · adverseCR = -100.00
EXPECTED EDGE-442.43%/yr driftμ × 8760 = annualised expectation
rₜ = ln(pₜ/pₜ₋₁). σ × √8760 = annualised. Sharpe = μ/σ scaled; Sortino uses downside-only vol; Calmar = annual return / max drawdown.

§6 · Risk metrics

Tail risk + drawdown · downside diagnostics
TAIL & DRAWDOWN RISKELEVATED · 95% VaR 0.63%
VaR₉₅ (h)0.630%5% prob of larger adverse h move
VaR₉₉ (h)0.791%1% prob · extreme-tail threshold
ES₉₅ (CVaR)0.736%expected loss given 5% tail event
MAX DRAWDOWN2.93%19h from peak to trough
TAIL-RISK LADDER (h losses)larger negative = worse · markers show severity
0 · no lossVaR₉₅−0.630%VaR₉₉−0.791%ES₉₅−0.736%worst tail ←→ zero loss
MAX DRAWDOWN PROFILEmoderate drawdown · 19h duration
PEAK0.30$
−2.93% drawdown over 19h
0.29$TROUGH
ES / VaR · TAIL THICKNESSmild tail heaviness|ES₉₅| / |VaR₉₅| = 1.17× (normal ≈ 1.25)
VaR₉₉ / VaR₉₅ · CONCENTRATIONuniform tailratio = 1.26× (normal ≈ 1.41)
DRAWDOWN · CAPITAL DURATIONmoderate drawdownrecovery needed: +3.01% (compounding)
VaR = quantile loss · ES (CVaR) = expected loss conditional on tail · DD = peak-to-trough decline. Under normality ES₉₅/VaR₉₅ ≈ 1.25; ratio > 1.5 ⇒ fat-tail regime.

§7 · Technicals

RSI(14)
46.5 · neutral
Bollinger %B
0.373 · within band
Bollinger upper
$0.0030
Bollinger MA
$0.0030
Bollinger lower
$0.0029

§8 · Time-series structure

Regime & autocorrelation diagnostics
TIME-SERIES STRUCTUREREGIME: MEAN-REVERTING · ρ(1) -0.39 + ADF rejected
ρ(1) AUTOCORR-0.393within white-noise band
ρ(2) AUTOCORR+0.185lag-2 not significant
H · HURST EXPONENT0.866strongly persistent
OLS TREND · t-STAT-7.782significant @ α=0.05
HURST EXPONENT [0, 1]strongly persistent · H = 0.866
H = 0.866STRONGLY PERSISTENT
0
anti-persistent0.45
mean-reverting0.5
random walk0.55
persistent1
strongly trending
AUTOCORRELATION FUNCTION · ρ(k) for k=1..5WHITE NOISE · no significant lags
k=1-0.393k=2+0.185k=3-0.226k=4+0.251k=5-0.2320+1−1+0.41−0.41+ momentum (ρ > +0.41)− reversal (ρ < −0.41)noise (within band)±2/√n threshold
OLS TREND · t-STAT · [-5, +5]SIGNIFICANT @ 1% (|t|=7.78)
−5 reject−1.960 retain H₀+1.96+5 reject
REGIME CLASSIFICATIONMEAN-REVERTING · ρ(1) -0.39 + ADF rejectedfrom Hurst + ρ(1) joint diagnosis
PREDICTABILITY · score 1.00very high · strong structure|ρ(1)| + 2·|H − 0.5| heuristic
TREND SIGNIFICANCESIGNIFICANT @ 1% (|t|=7.78)α=0.05 critical |t|=1.96 · α=0.01 |t|=2.58
ρ(k) = lag-k sample autocorrelation · H = R/S Hurst exponent · t = OLS-trend t-statistic. Significance bands at ±2/√n approximate the 95% white-noise envelope. α=0.05 critical |t|=1.96; α=0.01 |t|=2.58.

§9 · Microstructure

24h volume (USD)
$149.92k
Open interest (USD)
$129.94k
Vol / OI (turnover)
1.15x
1h funding
0.000382%
Funding (annualised)
+3.35%/yr

§10 · Position sizing

Continuous Kelly (μ/σ²)
-10.000× leverage · optimal log-utility leverage
Half-Kelly
-5.000× · industry-standard conservative
Quarter-Kelly
-2.500×

§11 · Hourly return heatmap

24-hour signed Δln-r grid · green = up · red = down
HOURLY RETURN HEATMAP · n=24 bars · best 0.77% · worst -0.84% · typical |Δ| 0.41%MILD BEARISH -1.21%BEST+0.77%21hWORST-0.84%00hTYPICAL |Δ|0.41%mean absoluteCUMULATIVE-1.21%Σ signed ΔSTREAK↗ 2up-runASIA · 00-08 UTCμ -0.29% · Σ -2.33%EUROPE · 08-16 UTCμ +0.19% · Σ +1.52%US · 16-24 UTCμ -0.05% · Σ -0.40%CUMULATIVE Δ PATH · final -1.21%+0.67%-2.30%-0.17% · 13h-0.17% · 13h-0.17%13h0.23% · 14h0.23% · 14h0.23%14h0.60% · 15h0.60% · 15h0.60%15h-0.33% · 16h-0.33% · 16h-0.33%16h-0.33% · 17h-0.33% · 17h-0.33%17h-0.20% · 18h-0.20% · 18h-0.20%18h0.47% · 19h0.47% · 19h0.47%19h-0.37% · 20h-0.37% · 20h-0.37%20h0.77% · 21h0.77% · 21h0.77%21h★ BEST-0.63% · 22h-0.63% · 22h-0.63%22h0.23% · 23h0.23% · 23h0.23%23h-0.84% · 00h-0.84% · 00h-0.84%00h▼ WORST0.24% · 01h0.24% · 01h0.24%01h-0.37% · 02h-0.37% · 02h-0.37%02h0.17% · 03h0.17% · 03h0.17%03h-0.61% · 04h-0.61% · 04h-0.61%04h-0.14% · 05h-0.14% · 05h-0.14%05h-0.31% · 06h-0.31% · 06h-0.31%06h-0.48% · 07h-0.48% · 07h-0.48%07h0.55% · 08h0.55% · 08h0.55%08h-0.24% · 09h-0.24% · 09h-0.24%09h-0.55% · 10h-0.55% · 10h-0.55%10h0.75% · 11h0.75% · 11h0.75%11h0.34% · 12h0.34% · 12h0.34%12hTIME PATTERNEurope-led (+1.52%)RUNSup max 2 · down max 4BREADTH42% up · 58% down
10 up bars · 14 down · best 0.77% · worst -0.84% · typical |Δ| 0.412%

§12 · Equity curve & underwater drawdown

Cumulative compounded return + running peak-to-trough
EQUITY & DRAWDOWN ANALYSIS · n=25 barsLOSS WITH MODERATE DD (-1.23%)FINAL-1.23%MAX DD-2.94%RECOVERYONGOING · 21 barsMAX RUN-UP+0.67%UNDERWATER22/25 (88%)STREAK↗ 2EQUITY CURVE · end 0.9877 · peak 1.0067 · range [0.9770, 1.0067]1.00670.9770break-even = 1★ PEAK 1.0067UNDERWATER DRAWDOWN · max -2.94% · moderate0%-2.94%▼ TROUGH -2.94%TOP DRAWDOWN PERIODS · 2 total#1 -2.94%bar 5-25 · 21 bars · ONGOING#2 -0.17%bar 2-2 · 1 bars · recoveredDD SEVERITYmoderate (max -2.94%)RECOVERYongoing · 21 barsTIME UNDER WATER88% of session · 22/25 bars
final equity 0.9877 (-1.23%) · max DD -2.94% · time-under-water 22/25 bars

§13 · Rolling-window statistics (w = 6 bars)

Rolling annualised Sharpe ratio · green positive · red negative
n=19 · +3 / −16 (16% positive) · μ=-23.15 · σ=28.40UNPROFITABLE STRATEGYLAST 10.51 (+1.19σ vs μ)98.2049.100.00-49.10-98.20μ = -23.15-8.38-8.3816.3016.30-5.92-5.92-0.00-0.00-8.61-8.617.807.80-8.94-8.94-15.34-15.34-15.39-15.39-39.38-39.38-38.90-38.90-56.54-56.54-48.64-48.64-98.20-98.20-29.47-29.47-47.09-47.09-46.06-46.06-7.67-7.6710.5110.51v > 0 · positivev < 0 · negativeμ mean lineμ ± σ bandlatest bar (outlined)
latest 10.509 · range [-98.20, 16.30] · μ -23.154 · positive Sharpe = excess-return-per-risk earned by buying-and-holding through this window
Rolling annualised volatility (%)
n=19 · μ=44.2380 · σ=9.3955 · range [25.6811, 60.3592] · R²=0.015▲ RISING +48.17%σ EXTREME 21.24%LAST 51.867260.359251.689643.020134.350625.6811μ = 44.2380max 60.3592min 25.6811dataMA(3)OLS R²=0.01μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
latest 51.87% · range [25.68%, 60.36%] · μ 44.24% · σ̂ scaled to annualised (×√8760)
Rolling lag-1 autocorrelation ρ(1)
n=19 · +2 / −17 (11% positive) · μ=-0.466 · σ=0.271MEAN-REVERSIONLAST -0.294 (+0.64σ vs μ)0.8370.4190.000-0.419-0.837μ = -0.4660.1210.1210.0450.045-0.308-0.308-0.307-0.307-0.632-0.632-0.837-0.837-0.620-0.620-0.728-0.728-0.653-0.653-0.773-0.773-0.754-0.754-0.638-0.638-0.597-0.597-0.615-0.615-0.344-0.344-0.291-0.291-0.262-0.262-0.366-0.366-0.294-0.294v > 0 · positivev < 0 · negativeμ mean lineμ ± σ bandlatest bar (outlined)
latest -0.294 · |ρ| > 0.3 ⇒ regime with persistence (ρ > 0) or reversal (ρ < 0) · |ρ| ≤ 0.1 = consistent with random walk

§14 · Hypothesis tests (α = 0.05)

Formal inference at 5% significance
1 of 6 REJECT · mixed evidence1 reject·5 pass·α = 0.05
𝒩

Jarque-Bera

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Δln-r ~ Normal(μ, σ²)

STATISTIC
1.4229
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.4909
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainednormality not rejected
ρ

Ljung-Box(h=5)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: No serial autocorrelation up to lag 5

STATISTIC
10.3926
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.0641
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedconsistent with white noise
Ψ

Dickey-Fuller (τ_μ)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: p has a unit root (non-stationary)

STATISTIC
-1.2850
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.6341
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedrandom-walk behaviour (crit ≈ -2.86)
±

Wald-Wolfowitz runs

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Sign sequence of Δ is random

STATISTIC
1.4330
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.1518
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedsigns appear random (16 runs)
χ

KPSS (μ stationarity)

REJECT H₀**

H₀: p IS level-stationary

STATISTIC
0.7677
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.0085
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p < α · rejection zonenon-stationary (crit 0.463)
χ

Variance ratio q=3

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Δln-r is a random walk · VR = 1

STATISTIC
-1.5434
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.1227
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedVR 0.530 ≈ 1 (RW behaviour)
Each row states an explicit null H₀, the test statistic, an approximated p-value, and the decision. REJECT means evidence against H₀. KPSS complements ADF (rejecting both ⇒ ambiguous; rejecting one ⇒ clean verdict).

§15 · Spectral analysis (DFT periodogram)

Power spectrum of Δln-r · ‖X̂(k)‖²/n
n=12 bins · noise floor μ=2.51e-5 · top T=2.00h (33.9%) · top-3 cover 64.2%1 SIGNIFICANT CYCLEcumulative energy ↗ (1 bin above 2× noise)1.0e-47.7e-55.1e-52.6e-50.0e+0μ noise floor2× noise (significance)period 24.0 · power 2.03e-5 · 6.7% energyperiod 24.0 · power 2.03e-5 · 6.7% energyperiod 12.0 · power 5.76e-6 · 1.9% energyperiod 12.0 · power 5.76e-6 · 1.9% energyperiod 8.0 · power 7.14e-6 · 2.4% energyperiod 8.0 · power 7.14e-6 · 2.4% energyperiod 6.0 · power 1.31e-5 · 4.3% energyperiod 6.0 · power 1.31e-5 · 4.3% energyperiod 4.8 · power 3.69e-6 · 1.2% energyperiod 4.8 · power 3.69e-6 · 1.2% energyperiod 4.0 · power 1.22e-5 · 4.0% energyperiod 4.0 · power 1.22e-5 · 4.0% energyperiod 3.4 · power 4.29e-5 · 14.2% energyperiod 3.4 · power 4.29e-5 · 14.2% energyperiod 3.0 · power 2.60e-5 · 8.6% energyperiod 3.0 · power 2.60e-5 · 8.6% energyperiod 2.7 · power 8.48e-6 · 2.8% energyperiod 2.7 · power 8.48e-6 · 2.8% energyperiod 2.4 · power 1.12e-5 · 3.7% energyperiod 2.4 · power 1.12e-5 · 3.7% energyperiod 2.2 · power 4.85e-5 · 16.1% energyperiod 2.2 · power 4.85e-5 · 16.1% energyperiod 2.0 · power 1.02e-4 · 33.9% energyperiod 2.0 · power 1.02e-4 · 33.9% energy50% by T=2.2h#1 dominantT=2.00h#2T=2.18h#3T=3.43hT=2hT=3hT=4hT=6hT=8hT=12hT=16hT=24h← shorter cycle (high freq · Nyquist=½) · period T (bars per cycle) · longer cycle (low freq · 1/n) →#1 dominant#2 peak#3 peak> 2× noisenoiseμ floor2μ sig.cum energy
dominant period ≈ 2.00h (freq 0.500) · concentrates 33.9% of total energy · Σ|X̂|²/n = 3.015e-4

▸ Depth section using sovereign-store price series (5000 bars · effective 5257847 bars/year) — annualisation reflects native polling cadence, not upstream timeframes.

§16 · NOSTRADAMUS continuous quant — perp leverage & bootstrap MC

Continuous-price extension of the prediction-market quant module. Kelly growth on observed returns (Merton μ/σ² parametric vs argmax empirical), Monte-Carlo equity fan bootstrapped from the historical return distribution at quarter-Kelly leverage, and an annualized return decomposition. Sweep parameters in the simulator.

§17 · Continuous Kelly

Continuous-Kelly growth · g(f) = E[ln(1 + f·r)]
NO LONG EDGE · μ -0.000% per barparametric μ/σ² short edge (μ<0) · μ -0.000% · σ 0.02%
μ per barmean
-0.000%
σ per barvol
0.02%
Empirical f★argmax g(f)
0.00×
from observed distribution
Parametric f★μ/σ²
-28.55×
Merton continuous-time
Half-Kelly½ f★
0.00×
~⅔ of full growth, half the variance
Quarter-Kelly¼ f★
0.00×
industry default — survives model error
-0.00%0.02%0.05%0.07%0.10%0.0×1.6×3.2×4.8×6.4×8.0×leverage fraction fexpected log-growth per bar
g(f) empiricalf★ argmaxparametric f★
Maximum expected log-growth from leveraging the historical return distribution. Empirical f★ argmaxes the sample expectation; parametric f★ = μ/σ² is Merton's continuous-time optimum.

§18 · MC equity fan

Bootstrapped equity fan at 0.10× leverage
Median CAGR/bar -0.000% · annualized Sharpe -19.23400 paths × 720 bars · leverage 0.10× · bootstrap from 4999 observed returns
Sharpe / barμ/σ
-0.008
annualized -19.23
μ per barafter L
-0.000%
σ per barafter L
0.00%
VaR 95%5%
0.00%
per-bar worst-case
CVaR 95%ES
0.00%
mean tail loss
Max DD (median)MDD
-0.0%
0.95×0.97×0.99×1.01×1.03×1.05×0120240360480600720startbar #equity multiple
median25/75 band5/95 band
Median path with 25/75 and 5/95 percentile bands across 400 simulated careers. Bars resample with replacement from the observed return distribution — preserves fat tails the parametric model misses.

§19 · Annualized breakdown

Annualized return components
APR -852% · APY -100% · Sharpe -15.59σ ann 55% · Sortino -8.09 · n 4999
-1871%-1484%-1096%-709%-322%66%-851.6%APR (simple)-100.0%APY (compound)54.6%Ann. vol σ-1559.3%Sharpe (ann)-809.2%Sortino (ann)
Simple APR vs compounded APY · annualized volatility · risk-adjusted Sharpe and Sortino. All scaled by √(periods/yr).

§20 · GARCH(1,1) volatility band

GARCH(1,1) · conditional vol envelope (±2σ)
GARCH persistence α+β = 0.980· σ̂ₜ = 1.000% · long-run σ = 2.236%
0.0030.0030.0030.0030.0030.003t-4999t-4166t-3333t-2500t-1666t-833t-0

Persistence near 1 ⇒ vol clusters strongly (slow mean reversion). Long-run σ is the unconditional target the conditional vol orbits. The ±2σ band reflects time-varying scale, unlike a flat-vol band.

Time-varying volatility band fitted to the price series. Persistence α+β > 0.98 means vol shocks decay slowly — recent moves stay relevant.

§∞ · Provenance & attestation

Upstream
api.hyperliquid.xyz
Snapshot fetched
2026-06-14 12:18:58 UTC
Snapshot age
2.7s
History points
25 hourly closes
Page rendered
2026-06-14 12:19:02 UTC
Storage policy
no persistence — fetched on every request
SHA-256 attestation
c27adddb6bf84cb669e2462459d99fe6f27765837201e811d41b23602c1c0832 · deterministic hash of the source snapshot — proves this page was rendered from this exact data
Open data licence
CC0 / public domain · free to mirror, syndicate, analyse

§∞-2 · Related markets · explore more

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Also see: /arb opportunities · RSS feed

Market depth

▸ live order book · Hyperliquid perp
Depth within 1bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Depth within 5bp
$4.94K
bid $2.89K · ask $2.05K
Depth within 10bp
$4.94K
bid $2.89K · ask $2.05K
Depth within 50bp
$65.05K
bid $35.68K · ask $29.37K
Mid price
0.002952
(best bid + best ask) / 2
Spread
6.8bp
(bestAsk − bestBid) / mid
Imbalance (whole book)
+0.048
bid-heavy
Imbalance (top-5)
+0.012
bid-heavy top-of-book

Slippage scenarios

▸ live book walk · Hyperliquid perp

Simulating a market order at three notionals against the live book. Slippage = avg execution price vs. mid, in basis points. Worst fill = price of the deepest level touched. Live JSON: /api/asset/hl-anime/slippage?size=10000&side=buy

SideNotionalAvg fillSlippageWorst fillLevelsStatus
BUY$1.00K0.0029533.39bp0.0029531FILLED
BUY$10.00K0.00295510.48bp0.0029574FILLED
BUY$100.00K0.00296439.62bp0.00297520PARTIAL
SELL$1.00K0.0029513.39bp0.0029511FILLED
SELL$10.00K0.0029498.64bp0.0029483FILLED
SELL$100.00K0.00294234.87bp0.00293120PARTIAL

Funding carry

▸ LONGS PAY · shorts receive
Hourly funding
+3.823e-6
0.00038% / hr
Annualised APR
3.351%
hourly · 24 · 365.25
Long: days to 1% carry
109.0d
longs pay
Short: days to 1% carry
109.0d
shorts receive
SideDirectionAnnualised carryDays → 1%Days → 10%
LONGPAY-3.351%109.0d2.99y
SHORTRECEIVE3.351%109.0d2.99y

/api/asset/hl-anime/carry · same metrics, JSON

Volume profile

▸ real volume · Hyperliquid candlesstep $ 1 · 25 records
Price binBarsVolumeDistribution
$0.000000–$1.0000★25$51.23M

★ POC = Point of Control (highest-volume bin). Live JSON: /api/asset/hl-anime/volprofile?priceStep=1

Order flow

▸ ASK-LEAN · -0.292 · Hyperliquid candles
Bars (buy / sell)
10 / 14
1 unclassified
Buy weight
$17.59M
real volume
Sell weight
$32.09M
real volume
Net delta
$14.50M
sellers net
Imbalance
-29.19%
(buy − sell) / (buy + sell)
Toxicity (VPIN)
29.2%
two-sided / balanced
Impact (|Δp|/vol)
—
needs real volume

Sparkline = cumulative delta over the 25-record window./api/asset/hl-anime/flow?rollingWindow=30

Cascade clusters

▸ DOWN · 5 found · deepest 1.71% · Hyperliquid candles

Price-only proxy for forced-unwind clusters. No exchange liquidation feed is wired — read each row as a candidate event, not a confirmed liquidation.

#WindowDurationPeak → TroughDrawdownBars
#12026-06-14 04:00:00Z3.0h0.002978→0.0029271.713%4
#22026-06-14 00:00:00Z2.0h0.003008→0.0029671.363%3
#32026-06-13 17:00:00Z1.0h0.003008→0.0029820.864%2

/api/asset/hl-anime/cascades?windowMs=10800000&minDrawdownPct=0.005 · full list + parameters in JSON

Risk metrics

▸ sovereign store · 5,000 barsperiods/year ≈ 5.26M
Realized vol (annualised)
54.62%
σ per bar = 0.000238
Mean return (annualised)
-851.65%
μ per bar = -0.000002
Sharpe (rf=0)
-15.59
annualised; risk-free assumed zero
Max drawdown
1.98%
peak 0.00 → trough 0.00 over 2833 bars

/api/asset/hl-anime/risk · same metrics, JSON