HYPERLIQUID · PERPETUAL FUTURES

ALT

ALT-USD perpetual · 24/7 trading on Hyperliquid

▸ Advanced metrics · M2M bundle

hyperliquid · perp-alt · fresh · feed 3s old
24h sparkline · 60 pts▲ 1.06%
realized vol (ann.)
107.83%
max drawdown
2.99%
sharpe
-22.33
ulcer index
1.85%
RMS drawdown
pain index
1.55%
mean drawdown
mod. VaR 95%
0.05%
Cornish-Fisher
martin ratio
-1300.52
ret / ulcer
CDaR 95%
2.88%
cond. drawdown
gain/pain
0.94
Σgain / Σ|loss|
sterling
-835.99
ret / CDaR
omega (θ=0)
0.94
upside/downside
roll spread
0.0 bps
implied (price-only)
bars used
2000
store
spread
—
24h Δ
1.06%
flow lean
—
carry
shorts_pay
-0.97%
signalLONGconfidence 43%suggested side: BUY
  • 24h change +1.06%
  • funding: shorts pay — perp longs get paid to wait
  • mark cheap vs HL oracle by 14.0bps — long bias
Same bundle via M2M API: /api/m2m/hl-alt/bundle · venue execution: hyperliquid →
LIVEPOLL0SRCFRESH3.2s⏱--:--:-- UTC8NEXT8.0sUP0s--:--HIST0/30
▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC FRESH·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC FRESH·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·
MARK · live
$0.006
24h Δ · live
1.06%
24h vol · live
$0.6M
ALT · live 24h price
n=25 · μ=0.0064 · σ=0.0001 · range [0.0063, 0.0067] · R²=0.090▲ RISING +1.09%σ NORMAL 1.31%LAST 0.00640.00670.00660.00650.00640.0063μ = 0.0064max 0.0067min 0.0063dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.09μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxminlive endpoint
25 closes · last $0.01
Funding direction · live
Long fee 34.4%Short fee 65.6%SHORT FEE65.6%
Σ = 0.0%
Σ-sides total = 0.00% (100.00pp arb gap)
H(p) entropy = 0.929 / 1.00 bits (93%) · high uncertainty
Long fee
34.4%▬ +0.00pp
Short fee
65.6%▬ +0.00pp
1h funding -0.000110% · shorts pay
Hourly contract volume · live
n=25 · Σ=85,580,669 · μ=3423226.8 · σ=4914505.7 · CV=1.44BURSTY · concentratedcumulative energy ↗ · 50% by h=1204,151,5398,303,07812,454,61716,606,156μ = 342322716,606,15650%h1h5h9h13h17h21h25#1 peak#2-3> μactivequietμ linecum energy
peak 16606156 contracts
Live numerics · pulse on poll
LIVE NUMERICS9 metrics·POLL 0
⏱snapshot age
3.2s
$mark $
$0.0064
$mid $
$0.0064
◉prev-day close
$0.0063
Δ24h Δ %
+1.056%
$24h vol $
$553.45k
◐open interest $
$304.67k
%funding (1h)
-0.000110%
%funding (yr)
-0.97%/yr

§1 · 24h time-series

Close price · hourly
n=25 · μ=0.0064 · σ=0.0001 · range [0.0063, 0.0067] · R²=0.090▲ RISING +1.09%σ NORMAL 1.31%LAST 0.00640.00670.00660.00650.00640.0063μ = 0.0064max 0.0067min 0.0063dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.09μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
mark $0.0064 · 24h 1.06% · range $[0.0063, 0.0067]
OHLC candles · hourly
n=25 · up 12 · down 13 (48% up) · range [0.0063, 0.0068] · σ=0.0001 · CV=0.01 · bodyµ=44%BULLISH +1.30%CLOSE 0.0064 vs OPEN 0.0063 (+1.30%)&#9650; CLOSE 0.00640.00680.00660.00650.00640.0063μ close = 0.0064O0.006 H0.006 L0.006 C0.006 (+0.21%)O0.006 H0.006 L0.006 C0.006 (+0.21%)O0.006 H0.006 L0.006 C0.006 (-0.39%)O0.006 H0.006 L0.006 C0.006 (-0.39%)O0.006 H0.006 L0.006 C0.006 (-0.17%)O0.006 H0.006 L0.006 C0.006 (-0.17%)O0.006 H0.006 L0.006 C0.006 (+0.89%)O0.006 H0.006 L0.006 C0.006 (+0.89%)O0.006 H0.007 L0.006 C0.006 (+0.80%)O0.006 H0.007 L0.006 C0.006 (+0.80%)O0.006 H0.006 L0.006 C0.006 (-0.06%)O0.006 H0.006 L0.006 C0.006 (-0.06%)O0.006 H0.006 L0.006 C0.006 (-0.20%)O0.006 H0.006 L0.006 C0.006 (-0.20%)O0.006 H0.006 L0.006 C0.006 (+0.06%)O0.006 H0.006 L0.006 C0.006 (+0.06%)O0.006 H0.006 L0.006 C0.006 (-0.82%)O0.006 H0.006 L0.006 C0.006 (-0.82%)O0.006 H0.006 L0.006 C0.006 (+0.45%)O0.006 H0.006 L0.006 C0.006 (+0.45%)4.0%O0.006 H0.007 L0.006 C0.007 (+3.97%)O0.006 H0.007 L0.006 C0.007 (+3.97%)O0.007 H0.007 L0.007 C0.007 (-0.92%)O0.007 H0.007 L0.007 C0.007 (-0.92%)O0.007 H0.007 L0.007 C0.007 (-0.74%)O0.007 H0.007 L0.007 C0.007 (-0.74%)O0.007 H0.007 L0.007 C0.007 (-0.51%)O0.007 H0.007 L0.007 C0.007 (-0.51%)O0.006 H0.007 L0.006 C0.006 (-0.86%)O0.006 H0.007 L0.006 C0.006 (-0.86%)O0.006 H0.007 L0.006 C0.006 (+0.25%)O0.006 H0.007 L0.006 C0.006 (+0.25%)O0.006 H0.006 L0.006 C0.006 (-0.39%)O0.006 H0.006 L0.006 C0.006 (-0.39%)O0.006 H0.006 L0.006 C0.006 (+0.31%)O0.006 H0.006 L0.006 C0.006 (+0.31%)O0.006 H0.006 L0.006 C0.006 (-0.68%)O0.006 H0.006 L0.006 C0.006 (-0.68%)O0.006 H0.006 L0.006 C0.006 (+0.58%)O0.006 H0.006 L0.006 C0.006 (+0.58%)O0.006 H0.007 L0.006 C0.006 (+0.11%)O0.006 H0.007 L0.006 C0.006 (+0.11%)O0.006 H0.007 L0.006 C0.007 (+0.99%)O0.006 H0.007 L0.006 C0.007 (+0.99%)O0.007 H0.007 L0.006 C0.006 (-2.02%)O0.007 H0.007 L0.006 C0.006 (-2.02%)O0.006 H0.006 L0.006 C0.006 (-0.20%)O0.006 H0.006 L0.006 C0.006 (-0.20%)O0.006 H0.006 L0.006 C0.006 (+0.42%)O0.006 H0.006 L0.006 C0.006 (+0.42%)#1#5#9#13#17#21#25up bar (C≥O)down bar (C<O)MA(5) closeμ closedoji (~no body)biggest body
25 bars
Hourly volume (base units)
n=25 · Σ=85,580,669 · μ=3423226.8 · σ=4914505.7 · CV=1.44BURSTY · concentratedcumulative energy &nearr; · 50% by h=1204,151,5398,303,07812,454,61716,606,156μ = 3423227385,492 · 2.3% peak385,492 · 2.3% peak370,812 · 2.2% peak370,812 · 2.2% peak626,160 · 3.8% peak626,160 · 3.8% peak728,064 · 4.4% peak728,064 · 4.4% peak12,847,433 · 77.4% peak12,847,433 · 77.4% peak2,044,955 · 12.3% peak2,044,955 · 12.3% peak1,444,919 · 8.7% peak1,444,919 · 8.7% peak2,118,358 · 12.8% peak2,118,358 · 12.8% peak652,356 · 3.9% peak652,356 · 3.9% peak738,109 · 4.4% peak738,109 · 4.4% peak5,601,366 · 33.7% peak5,601,366 · 33.7% peak16,606,15616,606,156 · 100.0% peak16,606,156 · 100.0% peak11,426,703 · 68.8% peak11,426,703 · 68.8% peak3,577,491 · 21.5% peak3,577,491 · 21.5% peak922,203 · 5.6% peak922,203 · 5.6% peak14,838,405 · 89.4% peak14,838,405 · 89.4% peak670,187 · 4.0% peak670,187 · 4.0% peak494,897 · 3.0% peak494,897 · 3.0% peak701,781 · 4.2% peak701,781 · 4.2% peak1,747,508 · 10.5% peak1,747,508 · 10.5% peak911,478 · 5.5% peak911,478 · 5.5% peak4,003,641 · 24.1% peak4,003,641 · 24.1% peak1,190,101 · 7.2% peak1,190,101 · 7.2% peak202,291 · 1.2% peak202,291 · 1.2% peak729,803 · 4.4% peak729,803 · 4.4% peak50%#1#5#9#13#17#21#25#1 peak#2-3> μactivequietμ linecum energy
Σ vol 85580669 · peak 16606156 · CV 1.44

§2 · Returns distribution (log-returns)

Histogram of rₜ = ln(pₜ/pₜ₋₁)
n=24 · 12 bins · μ=0.0007 · σ=0.0102 · skew=1.82 (right-skewed) · kurt=5.50 (leptokurtic (fat tails))65320 1-169.88bpbin -169.88bp · n=1 · 16.7% peakbin -169.88bp · n=1 · 16.7% peak 1-119.35bpbin -119.35bp · n=1 · 16.7% peakbin -119.35bp · n=1 · 16.7% peak 5-68.82bpbin -68.82bp · n=5 · 83.3% peakbin -68.82bp · n=5 · 83.3% peak 6-18.29bpbin -18.29bp · n=6 · 100.0% peakbin -18.29bp · n=6 · 100.0% peak 632.24bpbin 32.24bp · n=6 · 100.0% peakbin 32.24bp · n=6 · 100.0% peak 482.77bpbin 82.77bp · n=4 · 66.7% peakbin 82.77bp · n=4 · 66.7% peak133.30bp183.83bp234.36bp284.89bp335.42bp 1385.95bpbin 385.95bp · n=1 · 16.7% peakbin 385.95bp · n=1 · 16.7% peakμΔ < 0 · loss barsΔ ≈ 0 · flatΔ > 0 · gain barsN(μ,σ²) referenceμ line · ±σ band shaded
n=24 · positive 11 · negative 13
Q-Q plot · standardised rₜ vs N(0,1)
n=24 · skew=1.82 · kurt=5.59 · near 17 / mid 6 / far 1 · OLS slope=0.93 intercept=-0.00LEPTOKURTIC — FAT TAILSUPPER TAIL NORMALLOWER TAIL NORMAL-3σ-3σ-2σ-2σ-1σ-1σ+0σ+0σ+1σ+1σ+2σ+2σ+3σ+3σΔ=+1.68σsample ↓marginal: sample bars + theoretical N(0,1) curve →theoretical Φ⁻¹(p) →↑ sample z-quantile|Δ| < 0.3σ · on the line|Δ| < 1σ · moderate|Δ| ≥ 1σ · outliery = x refOLS fit

§3 · Spot quote

Mark price
$0.0064
Mid price
$0.0064
24h change
+1.06%
Mark–mid spread
3.12 bps
Prev-day close
$0.0063

§4 · Sample moments (prices)

Descriptive statistics · 5-number summary · shape diagnostics
SAMPLE MOMENTS · N=25RIGHT-SKEWED (G₁=0.95)
μ MEAN0.0064$95% CI: [0.0064$, 0.0065$]
σ STD DEV0.0001$σ² = 0.000×10⁻⁴ · CV = 1.31%
med MEDIAN0.0064$Q₁ 0.0064$ · Q₃ 0.0065$
FIVE-NUMBER SUMMARY · BOX PLOTrange 0.0004$ · IQR 0.0001$ (1.349σ→0.0001$)
min 0.0063$Q₁ 0.0064$med 0.0064$Q₃ 0.0065$max 0.0067$μ
SKEWNESS · G₁0.948right-skewed
−3−10+1+3
EXCESS KURTOSIS · G₂0.893mesokurtic · normal-like
−30+2+4+6
μ ↔ medianμ > med · right-tailed|μ−med| / σ = 0.16
σ × 1.349 ↔ IQRdiverges from normalratio = 1.60
range ↔ σwide tails (range > 4σ)range / σ = 4.42
μ = mean · σ = standard deviation · CV = coefficient of variation. Skew (G₁): >0 right-skewed. Kurt (G₂, excess): >0 leptokurtic. 95% CI = μ ± 1.96·SE.

§5 · Returns analytics (log-returns)

Risk-adjusted performance · log-returns
RETURNS · RISK-ADJUSTEDEXCEPTIONAL EDGE · SR=3.78
μᵣ MEAN / h+0.045095%drift is positive per h · |μ|/σ = 0.040
σᵣ STD / h1.117609%σ²ᵣ = 1.249×10⁻⁴ · CV = 24.78×
σ ANNUALISED104.60%/yrscaled by √8760 (hourly→yearly) · 1.118%/h base
RISK-ADJUSTED PERFORMANCEhigher = better edge per unit risk
SHARPE (annualised)3.78excellent · top-decile
-2-10+1+2+3+4
SORTINO (annualised)5.25strong downside-adjusted
-2-10+1+2+3+4
CALMAR (return / max-DD)88.81exceptional DD control
-20+2+4+6
RETURN-DISTRIBUTION SHAPE|skew| < 0.5 ≈ symmetric · |kurt| < 1 ≈ mesokurtic
SKEWNESS · G₁1.94right-skewed · heavy positive tail
-3-10+1+3
EXCESS KURTOSIS · G₂7.26leptokurtic · fat tails
-30+2+4+6
SORTINO vs SHARPEdownside vol < total vol · favourableSoR / SR = 1.39
CALMAR · DD CONTROLdrawdown control exceptionalCR = 88.81
EXPECTED EDGE+395.03%/yr driftμ × 8760 = annualised expectation
rₜ = ln(pₜ/pₜ₋₁). σ × √8760 = annualised. Sharpe = μ/σ scaled; Sortino uses downside-only vol; Calmar = annual return / max drawdown.

§6 · Risk metrics

Tail risk + drawdown · downside diagnostics
TAIL & DRAWDOWN RISKHIGH · 95% VaR 1.07%
VaR₉₅ (h)1.069%5% prob of larger adverse h move
VaR₉₉ (h)1.755%1% prob · extreme-tail threshold
ES₉₅ (CVaR)1.525%expected loss given 5% tail event
MAX DRAWDOWN4.45%13h from peak to trough
TAIL-RISK LADDER (h losses)larger negative = worse · markers show severity
0 · no lossVaR₉₅−1.069%VaR₉₉−1.755%ES₉₅−1.525%worst tail ←→ zero loss
MAX DRAWDOWN PROFILEmoderate drawdown · 13h duration
PEAK0.67$
−4.45% drawdown over 13h
0.64$TROUGH
ES / VaR · TAIL THICKNESSmild tail heaviness|ES₉₅| / |VaR₉₅| = 1.43× (normal ≈ 1.25)
VaR₉₉ / VaR₉₅ · CONCENTRATIONextreme-tail dominated · severe outliersratio = 1.64× (normal ≈ 1.41)
DRAWDOWN · CAPITAL DURATIONmoderate drawdownrecovery needed: +4.66% (compounding)
VaR = quantile loss · ES (CVaR) = expected loss conditional on tail · DD = peak-to-trough decline. Under normality ES₉₅/VaR₉₅ ≈ 1.25; ratio > 1.5 ⇒ fat-tail regime.

§7 · Technicals

RSI(14)
51.3 · neutral
Bollinger %B
0.337 · within band
Bollinger upper
$0.0066
Bollinger MA
$0.0065
Bollinger lower
$0.0063

§8 · Time-series structure

Regime & autocorrelation diagnostics
TIME-SERIES STRUCTUREREGIME: MARTINGALE · UNPREDICTABLE
ρ(1) AUTOCORR-0.054within white-noise band
ρ(2) AUTOCORR-0.243lag-2 not significant
H · HURST EXPONENT0.974strongly persistent
OLS TREND · t-STAT+1.509fails 5% test
HURST EXPONENT [0, 1]strongly persistent · H = 0.974
H = 0.974STRONGLY PERSISTENT
0
anti-persistent0.45
mean-reverting0.5
random walk0.55
persistent1
strongly trending
AUTOCORRELATION FUNCTION · ρ(k) for k=1..5WHITE NOISE · no significant lags
k=1-0.054k=2-0.243k=3-0.101k=4-0.116k=5-0.0080+1−1+0.41−0.41+ momentum (ρ > +0.41)− reversal (ρ < −0.41)noise (within band)±2/√n threshold
OLS TREND · t-STAT · [-5, +5]NOT SIGNIFICANT (|t|=1.51)
−5 reject−1.960 retain H₀+1.96+5 reject
REGIME CLASSIFICATIONMARTINGALE · UNPREDICTABLEfrom Hurst + ρ(1) joint diagnosis
PREDICTABILITY · score 1.00very high · strong structure|ρ(1)| + 2·|H − 0.5| heuristic
TREND SIGNIFICANCENOT SIGNIFICANT (|t|=1.51)α=0.05 critical |t|=1.96 · α=0.01 |t|=2.58
ρ(k) = lag-k sample autocorrelation · H = R/S Hurst exponent · t = OLS-trend t-statistic. Significance bands at ±2/√n approximate the 95% white-noise envelope. α=0.05 critical |t|=1.96; α=0.01 |t|=2.58.

§9 · Microstructure

24h volume (USD)
$553.45k
Open interest (USD)
$304.67k
Vol / OI (turnover)
1.82x
1h funding
-0.000110%
Funding (annualised)
-0.97%/yr

§10 · Position sizing

Continuous Kelly (μ/σ²)
3.610× leverage · optimal log-utility leverage
Half-Kelly
1.805× · industry-standard conservative
Quarter-Kelly
0.903×

§11 · Hourly return heatmap

24-hour signed Δln-r grid · green = up · red = down
HOURLY RETURN HEATMAP · n=24 bars · best 4.11% · worst -1.95% · typical |Δ| 0.73%MILD BULLISH +1.08%BEST+4.11%22hWORST-1.95%10hTYPICAL |Δ|0.73%mean absoluteCUMULATIVE+1.08%Σ signed ΔSTREAK↗ 1up-runASIA · 00-08 UTCμ -0.27% · Σ -2.13%EUROPE · 08-16 UTCμ -0.05% · Σ -0.41%US · 16-24 UTCμ +0.45% · Σ +3.62%CUMULATIVE Δ PATH · final +1.08%+5.16%-0.57%-0.40% · 13h-0.40% · 13h-0.40%13h-0.17% · 14h-0.17% · 14h-0.17%14h1.01% · 15h1.01% · 15h1.01%15h0.88% · 16h0.88% · 16h0.88%16h-0.06% · 17h-0.06% · 17h-0.06%17h-0.17% · 18h-0.17% · 18h-0.17%18h0.25% · 19h0.25% · 19h0.25%19h-0.81% · 20h-0.81% · 20h-0.81%20h0.53% · 21h0.53% · 21h0.53%21h4.11% · 22h4.11% · 22h4.11%22h★ BEST-1.10% · 23h-1.10% · 23h-1.10%23h-0.87% · 00h-0.87% · 00h-0.87%00h-0.71% · 01h-0.71% · 01h-0.71%01h-0.90% · 02h-0.90% · 02h-0.90%02h0.19% · 03h0.19% · 03h0.19%03h-0.40% · 04h-0.40% · 04h-0.40%04h0.28% · 05h0.28% · 05h0.28%05h-0.48% · 06h-0.48% · 06h-0.48%06h0.76% · 07h0.76% · 07h0.76%07h0.23% · 08h0.23% · 08h0.23%08h0.62% · 09h0.62% · 09h0.62%09h-1.95% · 10h-1.95% · 10h-1.95%10h▼ WORST-0.22% · 11h-0.22% · 11h-0.22%11h0.47% · 12h0.47% · 12h0.47%12hTIME PATTERNUS-led (+3.62%)RUNSup max 3 · down max 4BREADTH46% up · 54% down
11 up bars · 13 down · best 4.11% · worst -1.95% · typical |Δ| 0.732%

§12 · Equity curve & underwater drawdown

Cumulative compounded return + running peak-to-trough
EQUITY & DRAWDOWN ANALYSIS · n=25 barsPROFITABLE +0.94%FINAL+0.94%MAX DD-4.49%RECOVERYONGOING · 14 barsMAX RUN-UP+5.20%UNDERWATER20/25 (80%)STREAK↗ 1EQUITY CURVE · end 1.0094 · peak 1.0520 · range [0.9943, 1.0520]1.05200.9943break-even = 1★ PEAK 1.0520UNDERWATER DRAWDOWN · max -4.49% · moderate0%-4.49%▼ TROUGH -4.49%TOP DRAWDOWN PERIODS · 4 total#1 -4.49%bar 12-25 · 14 bars · ONGOING#2 -0.81%bar 9-10 · 2 bars · recovered#3 -0.57%bar 2-3 · 2 bars · recoveredDD SEVERITYmoderate (max -4.49%)RECOVERYongoing · 14 barsTIME UNDER WATER80% of session · 20/25 bars
final equity 1.0094 (0.94%) · max DD -4.49% · time-under-water 20/25 bars

§13 · Rolling-window statistics (w = 6 bars)

Rolling annualised Sharpe ratio · green positive · red negative
n=19 · +12 / −7 (63% positive) · μ=-2.11 · σ=43.47MIXED EDGELAST -1.45 (+0.02σ vs μ)127.6363.810.00-63.81-127.63μ = -2.1128.0528.0550.6250.6224.7924.7916.1316.1334.1134.1123.2123.2116.8716.879.039.038.348.345.685.68-127.63-127.63-71.90-71.90-66.40-66.40-14.28-14.2819.1719.1730.4530.45-8.45-8.45-16.43-16.43-1.45-1.45v > 0 · positivev < 0 · negativeμ mean lineμ ± σ bandlatest bar (outlined)
latest -1.447 · range [-127.63, 50.62] · μ -2.109 · positive Sharpe = excess-return-per-risk earned by buying-and-holding through this window
Rolling annualised volatility (%)
n=19 · μ=98.9638 · σ=59.9277 · range [43.2989, 188.4020] · R²=0.031▲ RISING +67.59%σ EXTREME 60.56%LAST 94.3963188.4020152.1263115.850579.574743.2989μ = 98.9638max 188.4020min 43.2989dataMA(3)OLS R²=0.03μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
latest 94.40% · range [43.30%, 188.40%] · μ 98.96% · σ̂ scaled to annualised (×√8760)
Rolling lag-1 autocorrelation ρ(1)
n=19 · +5 / −14 (26% positive) · μ=-0.132 · σ=0.211MEAN-REVERSIONLAST -0.114 (+0.09σ vs μ)0.4950.2470.000-0.247-0.495μ = -0.1320.2230.2230.0450.0450.1710.171-0.373-0.3730.0800.080-0.288-0.288-0.162-0.162-0.087-0.087-0.021-0.021-0.103-0.1030.1090.109-0.001-0.001-0.224-0.224-0.491-0.491-0.495-0.495-0.346-0.346-0.254-0.254-0.185-0.185-0.114-0.114v > 0 · positivev < 0 · negativeμ mean lineμ ± σ bandlatest bar (outlined)
latest -0.114 · |ρ| > 0.3 ⇒ regime with persistence (ρ > 0) or reversal (ρ < 0) · |ρ| ≤ 0.1 = consistent with random walk

§14 · Hypothesis tests (α = 0.05)

Formal inference at 5% significance
1 of 6 REJECT · mixed evidence1 reject·5 pass·α = 0.05
𝒩

Jarque-Bera

REJECT H₀***

H₀: Δln-r ~ Normal(μ, σ²)

STATISTIC
67.7446
p-VALUE (log scale)
< 0.0001
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p < α · rejection zonenon-normal · fat tails or skew present
ρ

Ljung-Box(h=5)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: No serial autocorrelation up to lag 5

STATISTIC
2.4741
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.7825
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedconsistent with white noise
Ψ

Dickey-Fuller (τ_μ)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: p has a unit root (non-stationary)

STATISTIC
-2.4025
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.1493
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedrandom-walk behaviour (crit ≈ -2.86)
±

Wald-Wolfowitz runs

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Sign sequence of Δ is random

STATISTIC
0.4555
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.6487
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedsigns appear random (14 runs)
χ

KPSS (μ stationarity)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: p IS level-stationary

STATISTIC
0.2493
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.2707
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedstationary not rejected (crit 0.463)
χ

Variance ratio q=3

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Δln-r is a random walk · VR = 1

STATISTIC
-0.5622
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.5740
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedVR 0.829 ≈ 1 (RW behaviour)
Each row states an explicit null H₀, the test statistic, an approximated p-value, and the decision. REJECT means evidence against H₀. KPSS complements ADF (rejecting both ⇒ ambiguous; rejecting one ⇒ clean verdict).

§15 · Spectral analysis (DFT periodogram)

Power spectrum of Δln-r · ‖X̂(k)‖²/n
n=12 bins · noise floor μ=1.20e-4 · top T=3.43h (22.1%) · top-3 cover 52.7%1 SIGNIFICANT CYCLEcumulative energy ↗ (1 bin above 2× noise)3.2e-42.4e-41.6e-47.9e-50.0e+0μ noise floor2× noise (significance)period 24.0 · power 5.02e-5 · 3.5% energyperiod 24.0 · power 5.02e-5 · 3.5% energyperiod 12.0 · power 4.09e-5 · 2.8% energyperiod 12.0 · power 4.09e-5 · 2.8% energyperiod 8.0 · power 2.19e-4 · 15.2% energyperiod 8.0 · power 2.19e-4 · 15.2% energyperiod 6.0 · power 1.17e-4 · 8.1% energyperiod 6.0 · power 1.17e-4 · 8.1% energyperiod 4.8 · power 2.22e-4 · 15.4% energyperiod 4.8 · power 2.22e-4 · 15.4% energyperiod 4.0 · power 5.33e-6 · 0.4% energyperiod 4.0 · power 5.33e-6 · 0.4% energyperiod 3.4 · power 3.17e-4 · 22.1% energyperiod 3.4 · power 3.17e-4 · 22.1% energyperiod 3.0 · power 9.57e-5 · 6.7% energyperiod 3.0 · power 9.57e-5 · 6.7% energyperiod 2.7 · power 1.43e-4 · 9.9% energyperiod 2.7 · power 1.43e-4 · 9.9% energyperiod 2.4 · power 7.84e-5 · 5.4% energyperiod 2.4 · power 7.84e-5 · 5.4% energyperiod 2.2 · power 1.44e-4 · 10.0% energyperiod 2.2 · power 1.44e-4 · 10.0% energyperiod 2.0 · power 6.22e-6 · 0.4% energyperiod 2.0 · power 6.22e-6 · 0.4% energy50% by T=3.4h#1 dominantT=3.43h#2T=4.80h#3T=8.00hT=2hT=3hT=4hT=6hT=8hT=12hT=16hT=24h← shorter cycle (high freq · Nyquist=½) · period T (bars per cycle) · longer cycle (low freq · 1/n) →#1 dominant#2 peak#3 peak> 2× noisenoiseμ floor2μ sig.cum energy
dominant period ≈ 3.43h (freq 0.292) · concentrates 22.1% of total energy · Σ|X̂|²/n = 1.440e-3

▸ Depth section using sovereign-store price series (5000 bars · effective 5257847 bars/year) — annualisation reflects native polling cadence, not upstream timeframes.

§16 · NOSTRADAMUS continuous quant — perp leverage & bootstrap MC

Continuous-price extension of the prediction-market quant module. Kelly growth on observed returns (Merton μ/σ² parametric vs argmax empirical), Monte-Carlo equity fan bootstrapped from the historical return distribution at quarter-Kelly leverage, and an annualized return decomposition. Sweep parameters in the simulator.

§17 · Continuous Kelly

Continuous-Kelly growth · g(f) = E[ln(1 + f·r)]
NO LONG EDGE · μ -0.000% per barparametric μ/σ² short edge (μ<0) · μ -0.000% · σ 0.03%
μ per barmean
-0.000%
σ per barvol
0.03%
Empirical f★argmax g(f)
0.00×
from observed distribution
Parametric f★μ/σ²
-12.65×
Merton continuous-time
Half-Kelly½ f★
0.00×
~⅔ of full growth, half the variance
Quarter-Kelly¼ f★
0.00×
industry default — survives model error
-0.00%0.02%0.05%0.07%0.10%0.0×1.6×3.2×4.8×6.4×8.0×leverage fraction fexpected log-growth per bar
g(f) empiricalf★ argmaxparametric f★
Maximum expected log-growth from leveraging the historical return distribution. Empirical f★ argmaxes the sample expectation; parametric f★ = μ/σ² is Merton's continuous-time optimum.

§18 · MC equity fan

Bootstrapped equity fan at 0.10× leverage
Median CAGR/bar -0.000% · annualized Sharpe -8.39400 paths × 720 bars · leverage 0.10× · bootstrap from 4999 observed returns
Sharpe / barμ/σ
-0.004
annualized -8.39
μ per barafter L
-0.000%
σ per barafter L
0.00%
VaR 95%5%
0.00%
per-bar worst-case
CVaR 95%ES
0.01%
mean tail loss
Max DD (median)MDD
-0.0%
0.95×0.97×0.99×1.01×1.03×1.05×0120240360480600720startbar #equity multiple
median25/75 band5/95 band
Median path with 25/75 and 5/95 percentile bands across 400 simulated careers. Bars resample with replacement from the observed return distribution — preserves fat tails the parametric model misses.

§19 · Annualized breakdown

Annualized return components
APR -801% · APY -100% · Sharpe -10.06σ ann 80% · Sortino -8.85 · n 4999
-1208%-947%-686%-426%-165%95%-800.8%APR (simple)-100.0%APY (compound)79.6%Ann. vol σ-1006.5%Sharpe (ann)-885.3%Sortino (ann)
Simple APR vs compounded APY · annualized volatility · risk-adjusted Sharpe and Sortino. All scaled by √(periods/yr).

§20 · GARCH(1,1) volatility band

GARCH(1,1) · conditional vol envelope (±2σ)
GARCH persistence α+β = 0.980· σ̂ₜ = 1.000% · long-run σ = 2.236%
0.0060.0060.0060.0070.0070.007t-4999t-4166t-3333t-2500t-1666t-833t-0

Persistence near 1 ⇒ vol clusters strongly (slow mean reversion). Long-run σ is the unconditional target the conditional vol orbits. The ±2σ band reflects time-varying scale, unlike a flat-vol band.

Time-varying volatility band fitted to the price series. Persistence α+β > 0.98 means vol shocks decay slowly — recent moves stay relevant.

§∞ · Provenance & attestation

Upstream
api.hyperliquid.xyz
Snapshot fetched
2026-06-14 12:17:46 UTC
Snapshot age
3.2s
History points
25 hourly closes
Page rendered
2026-06-14 12:17:49 UTC
Storage policy
no persistence — fetched on every request
SHA-256 attestation
c6f470ea04db8deffb567567cf04af5de2371b9bcf9b364ee3afc0d959f67013 · deterministic hash of the source snapshot — proves this page was rendered from this exact data
Open data licence
CC0 / public domain · free to mirror, syndicate, analyse

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Also see: /arb opportunities · RSS feed

Market depth

▸ live order book · Hyperliquid perp
Depth within 1bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Depth within 5bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Depth within 10bp
$3.65K
bid $2.10K · ask $1.56K
Depth within 50bp
$52.48K
bid $36.26K · ask $16.21K
Mid price
0.006411
(best bid + best ask) / 2
Spread
10.9bp
(bestAsk − bestBid) / mid
Imbalance (whole book)
+0.252
bid-heavy
Imbalance (top-5)
-0.380
ask-heavy top-of-book

Slippage scenarios

▸ live book walk · Hyperliquid perp

Simulating a market order at three notionals against the live book. Slippage = avg execution price vs. mid, in basis points. Worst fill = price of the deepest level touched. Live JSON: /api/asset/hl-alt/slippage?size=10000&side=buy

SideNotionalAvg fillSlippageWorst fillLevelsStatus
BUY$1.00K0.0064145.46bp0.0064141FILLED
BUY$10.00K0.00642217.66bp0.0064286FILLED
BUY$100.00K0.00643943.87bp0.00649420PARTIAL
SELL$1.00K0.0064066.52bp0.0064062FILLED
SELL$10.00K0.00640115.17bp0.00639310FILLED
SELL$100.00K0.00638933.43bp0.00635820PARTIAL

Funding carry

▸ SHORTS PAY · longs receive
Hourly funding
-1.104e-6
-0.00011% / hr
Annualised APR
-0.968%
hourly · 24 · 365.25
Long: days to 1% carry
1.03y
longs receive
Short: days to 1% carry
1.03y
shorts pay
SideDirectionAnnualised carryDays → 1%Days → 10%
LONGRECEIVE0.968%1.03y10.34y
SHORTPAY-0.968%1.03y10.34y

/api/asset/hl-alt/carry · same metrics, JSON

Volume profile

▸ real volume · Hyperliquid candlesstep $ 1 · 25 records
Price binBarsVolumeDistribution
$0.000000–$1.0000★25$85.58M

★ POC = Point of Control (highest-volume bin). Live JSON: /api/asset/hl-alt/volprofile?priceStep=1

Order flow

▸ BID-LEAN · +0.051 · Hyperliquid candles
Bars (buy / sell)
11 / 13
1 unclassified
Buy weight
$44.76M
real volume
Sell weight
$40.44M
real volume
Net delta
$4.32M
buyers net
Imbalance
5.07%
(buy − sell) / (buy + sell)
Toxicity (VPIN)
5.1%
two-sided / balanced
Impact (|Δp|/vol)
—
needs real volume

Sparkline = cumulative delta over the 25-record window./api/asset/hl-alt/flow?rollingWindow=30

Cascade clusters

▸ DOWN · 5 found · deepest 3.71% · Hyperliquid candles

Price-only proxy for forced-unwind clusters. No exchange liquidation feed is wired — read each row as a candidate event, not a confirmed liquidation.

#WindowDurationPeak → TroughDrawdownBars
#12026-06-13 23:00:00Z5.0h0.006677→0.0064293.714%6
#22026-06-14 10:00:00Z2.0h0.006520→0.0063802.147%3
#32026-06-13 20:00:00Z0ms0.006426→0.0063740.809%1

/api/asset/hl-alt/cascades?windowMs=10800000&minDrawdownPct=0.005 · full list + parameters in JSON

Risk metrics

▸ sovereign store · 5,000 barsperiods/year ≈ 5.26M
Realized vol (annualised)
79.57%
σ per bar = 0.000347
Mean return (annualised)
-800.83%
μ per bar = -0.000002
Sharpe (rf=0)
-10.06
annualised; risk-free assumed zero
Max drawdown
2.99%
peak 0.01 → trough 0.01 over 1318 bars

/api/asset/hl-alt/risk · same metrics, JSON