HYPERLIQUID · PERPETUAL FUTURES

AIXBT

AIXBT-USD perpetual · 24/7 trading on Hyperliquid

▸ Advanced metrics · M2M bundle

hyperliquid · perp-aixbt · fresh · feed 4s old
24h sparkline · 60 pts▼ -1.27%
realized vol (ann.)
71.39%
max drawdown
1.42%
sharpe
-39.01
ulcer index
0.83%
RMS drawdown
pain index
0.72%
mean drawdown
mod. VaR 95%
0.00%
Cornish-Fisher
martin ratio
-3364.37
ret / ulcer
CDaR 95%
1.36%
cond. drawdown
gain/pain
0.92
Σgain / Σ|loss|
sterling
-2055.29
ret / CDaR
omega (θ=0)
0.92
upside/downside
roll spread
1.7 bps
implied (price-only)
bars used
2000
store
spread
—
24h Δ
-1.27%
flow lean
—
carry
longs_pay
6.96%
signalSHORTconfidence 40%suggested side: SELL
  • 24h change -1.27%
  • funding: longs pay — perp shorts get paid to wait
  • mark cheap vs HL oracle by 13.6bps — long bias
Same bundle via M2M API: /api/m2m/hl-aixbt/bundle · venue execution: hyperliquid →
LIVEPOLL0SRCFRESH3.6s⏱--:--:-- UTC8NEXT8.0sUP0s--:--HIST0/30
▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC FRESH·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC FRESH·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·
MARK · live
$0.023
24h Δ · live
-1.27%
24h vol · live
$0.3M
AIXBT · live 24h price
n=25 · μ=0.0239 · σ=0.0003 · range [0.0234, 0.0244] · R²=0.646▼ FALLING -2.04%σ NORMAL 1.34%LAST 0.02350.02440.02420.02390.02370.0234μ = 0.0239max 0.0244min 0.0234dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.65μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxminlive endpoint
25 closes · last $0.02
Funding direction · live
Long fee 47.0%Short fee 53.0%SHORT FEE53.0%
Σ = 0.0%
Σ-sides total = 0.00% (100.00pp arb gap)
H(p) entropy = 0.997 / 1.00 bits (100%) · max uncertainty (~50/50)
Long fee
47.0%▬ +0.00pp
Short fee
53.0%▬ +0.00pp
1h funding 0.000795% · longs pay
Hourly contract volume · live
n=25 · Σ=14,147,025 · μ=565881.0 · σ=931101.8 · CV=1.65BURSTY · concentratedcumulative energy ↗ · 50% by h=801,076,0752,152,1513,228,2264,304,301μ = 5658814,304,30150%h1h5h9h13h17h21h25#1 peak#2-3> μactivequietμ linecum energy
peak 4304301 contracts
Live numerics · pulse on poll
LIVE NUMERICS9 metrics·POLL 0
⏱snapshot age
3.6s
$mark $
$0.0235
$mid $
$0.0235
◉prev-day close
$0.0238
Δ24h Δ %
-1.271%
$24h vol $
$337.55k
◐open interest $
$387.71k
%funding (1h)
0.000795%
%funding (yr)
+6.96%/yr

§1 · 24h time-series

Close price · hourly
n=25 · μ=0.0239 · σ=0.0003 · range [0.0234, 0.0244] · R²=0.646▼ FALLING -2.04%σ NORMAL 1.34%LAST 0.02350.02440.02420.02390.02370.0234μ = 0.0239max 0.0244min 0.0234dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.65μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
mark $0.0235 · 24h -1.27% · range $[0.0234, 0.0244]
OHLC candles · hourly
n=25 · up 14 · down 11 (56% up) · range [0.0233, 0.0251] · σ=0.0003 · CV=0.01 · bodyµ=40%BEARISH -1.05%CLOSE 0.0235 vs OPEN 0.0237 (-1.05%)&#9660; CLOSE 0.02350.02510.02470.02420.02380.0233μ close = 0.0239O0.024 H0.024 L0.024 C0.024 (+1.01%)O0.024 H0.024 L0.024 C0.024 (+1.01%)O0.024 H0.024 L0.024 C0.024 (+0.17%)O0.024 H0.024 L0.024 C0.024 (+0.17%)O0.024 H0.024 L0.024 C0.024 (+0.96%)O0.024 H0.024 L0.024 C0.024 (+0.96%)O0.024 H0.024 L0.024 C0.024 (+0.25%)O0.024 H0.024 L0.024 C0.024 (+0.25%)O0.024 H0.025 L0.024 C0.024 (+0.61%)O0.024 H0.025 L0.024 C0.024 (+0.61%)O0.024 H0.025 L0.024 C0.024 (+0.06%)O0.024 H0.025 L0.024 C0.024 (+0.06%)O0.024 H0.025 L0.024 C0.024 (-1.45%)O0.024 H0.025 L0.024 C0.024 (-1.45%)O0.024 H0.024 L0.024 C0.024 (+0.40%)O0.024 H0.024 L0.024 C0.024 (+0.40%)O0.024 H0.024 L0.024 C0.024 (+0.06%)O0.024 H0.024 L0.024 C0.024 (+0.06%)O0.024 H0.024 L0.024 C0.024 (+1.12%)O0.024 H0.024 L0.024 C0.024 (+1.12%)O0.024 H0.025 L0.024 C0.024 (-1.18%)O0.024 H0.025 L0.024 C0.024 (-1.18%)O0.024 H0.024 L0.024 C0.024 (-0.99%)O0.024 H0.024 L0.024 C0.024 (-0.99%)O0.024 H0.024 L0.024 C0.024 (-0.38%)O0.024 H0.024 L0.024 C0.024 (-0.38%)O0.024 H0.024 L0.024 C0.024 (+0.07%)O0.024 H0.024 L0.024 C0.024 (+0.07%)O0.024 H0.024 L0.024 C0.024 (-0.20%)O0.024 H0.024 L0.024 C0.024 (-0.20%)O0.024 H0.024 L0.024 C0.024 (+0.13%)O0.024 H0.024 L0.024 C0.024 (+0.13%)-1.5%O0.024 H0.024 L0.023 C0.023 (-1.54%)O0.024 H0.024 L0.023 C0.023 (-1.54%)O0.023 H0.023 L0.023 C0.023 (+0.11%)O0.023 H0.023 L0.023 C0.023 (+0.11%)O0.023 H0.024 L0.023 C0.024 (+0.46%)O0.023 H0.024 L0.023 C0.024 (+0.46%)O0.024 H0.024 L0.023 C0.023 (-0.88%)O0.024 H0.024 L0.023 C0.023 (-0.88%)O0.023 H0.024 L0.023 C0.024 (+1.10%)O0.023 H0.024 L0.023 C0.024 (+1.10%)O0.024 H0.024 L0.023 C0.024 (-0.05%)O0.024 H0.024 L0.023 C0.024 (-0.05%)O0.024 H0.024 L0.024 C0.024 (-0.38%)O0.024 H0.024 L0.024 C0.024 (-0.38%)O0.024 H0.024 L0.023 C0.023 (-0.38%)O0.024 H0.024 L0.023 C0.023 (-0.38%)O0.023 H0.023 L0.023 C0.023 (-0.14%)O0.023 H0.023 L0.023 C0.023 (-0.14%)#1#5#9#13#17#21#25up bar (C≥O)down bar (C<O)MA(5) closeμ closedoji (~no body)biggest body
25 bars
Hourly volume (base units)
n=25 · Σ=14,147,025 · μ=565881.0 · σ=931101.8 · CV=1.65BURSTY · concentratedcumulative energy &nearr; · 50% by h=801,076,0752,152,1513,228,2264,304,301μ = 565881381,360 · 8.9% peak381,360 · 8.9% peak267,189 · 6.2% peak267,189 · 6.2% peak461,720 · 10.7% peak461,720 · 10.7% peak216,586 · 5.0% peak216,586 · 5.0% peak4,304,3014,304,301 · 100.0% peak4,304,301 · 100.0% peak572,279 · 13.3% peak572,279 · 13.3% peak533,460 · 12.4% peak533,460 · 12.4% peak521,534 · 12.1% peak521,534 · 12.1% peak322,636 · 7.5% peak322,636 · 7.5% peak168,849 · 3.9% peak168,849 · 3.9% peak163,413 · 3.8% peak163,413 · 3.8% peak331,274 · 7.7% peak331,274 · 7.7% peak571,251 · 13.3% peak571,251 · 13.3% peak268,368 · 6.2% peak268,368 · 6.2% peak173,078 · 4.0% peak173,078 · 4.0% peak201,902 · 4.7% peak201,902 · 4.7% peak237,492 · 5.5% peak237,492 · 5.5% peak337,607 · 7.8% peak337,607 · 7.8% peak2,756,008 · 64.0% peak2,756,008 · 64.0% peak119,307 · 2.8% peak119,307 · 2.8% peak297,598 · 6.9% peak297,598 · 6.9% peak189,995 · 4.4% peak189,995 · 4.4% peak499,907 · 11.6% peak499,907 · 11.6% peak135,616 · 3.2% peak135,616 · 3.2% peak114,295 · 2.7% peak114,295 · 2.7% peak50%#1#5#9#13#17#21#25#1 peak#2-3> μactivequietμ linecum energy
Σ vol 14147025 · peak 4304301 · CV 1.65

§2 · Returns distribution (log-returns)

Histogram of rₜ = ln(pₜ/pₜ₋₁)
n=24 · 12 bins · μ=-0.0008 · σ=0.0071 · skew=-0.01 (symmetric) · kurt=-0.37 (mesokurtic)54310 3-133.77bpbin -133.77bp · n=3 · 60.0% peakbin -133.77bp · n=3 · 60.0% peak-110.27bp 1-86.77bpbin -86.77bp · n=1 · 20.0% peakbin -86.77bp · n=1 · 20.0% peak 2-63.27bpbin -63.27bp · n=2 · 40.0% peakbin -63.27bp · n=2 · 40.0% peak 2-39.77bpbin -39.77bp · n=2 · 40.0% peakbin -39.77bp · n=2 · 40.0% peak 4-16.27bpbin -16.27bp · n=4 · 80.0% peakbin -16.27bp · n=4 · 80.0% peak 57.23bpbin 7.23bp · n=5 · 100.0% peakbin 7.23bp · n=5 · 100.0% peak 230.73bpbin 30.73bp · n=2 · 40.0% peakbin 30.73bp · n=2 · 40.0% peak 254.23bpbin 54.23bp · n=2 · 40.0% peakbin 54.23bp · n=2 · 40.0% peak77.73bp 1101.23bpbin 101.23bp · n=1 · 20.0% peakbin 101.23bp · n=1 · 20.0% peak 2124.73bpbin 124.73bp · n=2 · 40.0% peakbin 124.73bp · n=2 · 40.0% peakμΔ < 0 · loss barsΔ ≈ 0 · flatΔ > 0 · gain barsN(μ,σ²) referenceμ line · ±σ band shaded
n=24 · positive 10 · negative 13
Q-Q plot · standardised rₜ vs N(0,1)
n=24 · skew=0.02 · kurt=-0.28 · near 23 / mid 1 / far 0 · OLS slope=1.01 intercept=-0.00MATCHES NORMAL · WELL-BEHAVEDUPPER TAIL NORMALLOWER TAIL NORMAL-3σ-3σ-2σ-2σ-1σ-1σ+0σ+0σ+1σ+1σ+2σ+2σ+3σ+3σsample ↓marginal: sample bars + theoretical N(0,1) curve →theoretical Φ⁻¹(p) →↑ sample z-quantile|Δ| < 0.3σ · on the line|Δ| < 1σ · moderate|Δ| ≥ 1σ · outliery = x refOLS fit

§3 · Spot quote

Mark price
$0.0235
Mid price
$0.0235
24h change
-1.27%
Mark–mid spread
2.56 bps
Prev-day close
$0.0238

§4 · Sample moments (prices)

Descriptive statistics · 5-number summary · shape diagnostics
SAMPLE MOMENTS · N=25PLATYKURTIC · THIN TAILS (G₂=-1.21)
μ MEAN0.0239$95% CI: [0.0238$, 0.0240$]
σ STD DEV0.0003$σ² = 0.001×10⁻⁴ · CV = 1.34%
med MEDIAN0.0239$Q₁ 0.0236$ · Q₃ 0.0241$
FIVE-NUMBER SUMMARY · BOX PLOTrange 0.0010$ · IQR 0.0005$ (1.349σ→0.0004$)
min 0.0234$Q₁ 0.0236$med 0.0239$Q₃ 0.0241$max 0.0244$μ
SKEWNESS · G₁0.141approximately symmetric
−3−10+1+3
EXCESS KURTOSIS · G₂-1.207platykurtic · thin tails
−30+2+4+6
μ ↔ median≈ equal · symmetric|μ−med| / σ = 0.03
σ × 1.349 ↔ IQRconsistent with normalratio = 0.82
range ↔ σconcentrated (range < 4σ)range / σ = 3.13
μ = mean · σ = standard deviation · CV = coefficient of variation. Skew (G₁): >0 right-skewed. Kurt (G₂, excess): >0 leptokurtic. 95% CI = μ ± 1.96·SE.

§5 · Returns analytics (log-returns)

Risk-adjusted performance · log-returns
RETURNS · RISK-ADJUSTEDUNPROFITABLE · SR=-10.72
μᵣ MEAN / h-0.085812%drift is negative per h · |μ|/σ = 0.114
σᵣ STD / h0.749455%σ²ᵣ = 0.562×10⁻⁴ · CV = 8.73×
σ ANNUALISED70.15%/yrscaled by √8760 (hourly→yearly) · 0.749%/h base
RISK-ADJUSTED PERFORMANCEhigher = better edge per unit risk
SHARPE (annualised)-10.72negative edge
-2-10+1+2+3+4
SORTINO (annualised)-10.43downside drag
-2-10+1+2+3+4
CALMAR (return / max-DD)-100.00drawdown overwhelms returns
-20+2+4+6
RETURN-DISTRIBUTION SHAPE|skew| < 0.5 ≈ symmetric · |kurt| < 1 ≈ mesokurtic
SKEWNESS · G₁0.02approximately symmetric
-3-10+1+3
EXCESS KURTOSIS · G₂-0.05mesokurtic · normal-like tails
-30+2+4+6
SORTINO vs SHARPEdownside vol < total vol · favourableSoR / SR = 0.97
CALMAR · DD CONTROLdrawdown > returns · adverseCR = -100.00
EXPECTED EDGE-751.71%/yr driftμ × 8760 = annualised expectation
rₜ = ln(pₜ/pₜ₋₁). σ × √8760 = annualised. Sharpe = μ/σ scaled; Sortino uses downside-only vol; Calmar = annual return / max drawdown.

§6 · Risk metrics

Tail risk + drawdown · downside diagnostics
TAIL & DRAWDOWN RISKHIGH · 95% VaR 1.40%
VaR₉₅ (h)1.403%5% prob of larger adverse h move
VaR₉₉ (h)1.450%1% prob · extreme-tail threshold
ES₉₅ (CVaR)1.445%expected loss given 5% tail event
MAX DRAWDOWN4.12%14h from peak to trough
TAIL-RISK LADDER (h losses)larger negative = worse · markers show severity
0 · no lossVaR₉₅−1.403%VaR₉₉−1.450%ES₉₅−1.445%worst tail ←→ zero loss
MAX DRAWDOWN PROFILEmoderate drawdown · 14h duration
PEAK2.44$
−4.12% drawdown over 14h
2.34$TROUGH
ES / VaR · TAIL THICKNESSthin tails · ES ≈ VaR|ES₉₅| / |VaR₉₅| = 1.03× (normal ≈ 1.25)
VaR₉₉ / VaR₉₅ · CONCENTRATIONuniform tailratio = 1.03× (normal ≈ 1.41)
DRAWDOWN · CAPITAL DURATIONmoderate drawdownrecovery needed: +4.29% (compounding)
VaR = quantile loss · ES (CVaR) = expected loss conditional on tail · DD = peak-to-trough decline. Under normality ES₉₅/VaR₉₅ ≈ 1.25; ratio > 1.5 ⇒ fat-tail regime.

§7 · Technicals

RSI(14)
41.4 · neutral
Bollinger %B
0.200 · within band
Bollinger upper
$0.0245
Bollinger MA
$0.0238
Bollinger lower
$0.0232

§8 · Time-series structure

Regime & autocorrelation diagnostics
TIME-SERIES STRUCTUREREGIME: INDETERMINATE · weak signal at n=24
ρ(1) AUTOCORR-0.109within white-noise band
ρ(2) AUTOCORR-0.076lag-2 not significant
H · HURST EXPONENT0.941strongly persistent
OLS TREND · t-STAT-6.474significant @ α=0.05
HURST EXPONENT [0, 1]strongly persistent · H = 0.941
H = 0.941STRONGLY PERSISTENT
0
anti-persistent0.45
mean-reverting0.5
random walk0.55
persistent1
strongly trending
AUTOCORRELATION FUNCTION · ρ(k) for k=1..5WHITE NOISE · no significant lags
k=1-0.109k=2-0.076k=3-0.212k=4-0.074k=5+0.2320+1−1+0.41−0.41+ momentum (ρ > +0.41)− reversal (ρ < −0.41)noise (within band)±2/√n threshold
OLS TREND · t-STAT · [-5, +5]SIGNIFICANT @ 1% (|t|=6.47)
−5 reject−1.960 retain H₀+1.96+5 reject
REGIME CLASSIFICATIONINDETERMINATE · weak signal at n=24from Hurst + ρ(1) joint diagnosis
PREDICTABILITY · score 0.99very high · strong structure|ρ(1)| + 2·|H − 0.5| heuristic
TREND SIGNIFICANCESIGNIFICANT @ 1% (|t|=6.47)α=0.05 critical |t|=1.96 · α=0.01 |t|=2.58
ρ(k) = lag-k sample autocorrelation · H = R/S Hurst exponent · t = OLS-trend t-statistic. Significance bands at ±2/√n approximate the 95% white-noise envelope. α=0.05 critical |t|=1.96; α=0.01 |t|=2.58.

§9 · Microstructure

24h volume (USD)
$337.55k
Open interest (USD)
$387.71k
Vol / OI (turnover)
0.87x
1h funding
0.000795%
Funding (annualised)
+6.96%/yr

§10 · Position sizing

Continuous Kelly (μ/σ²)
-10.000× leverage · optimal log-utility leverage
Half-Kelly
-5.000× · industry-standard conservative
Quarter-Kelly
-2.500×

§11 · Hourly return heatmap

24-hour signed Δln-r grid · green = up · red = down
HOURLY RETURN HEATMAP · n=24 bars · best 1.36% · worst -1.46% · typical |Δ| 0.56%MILD BEARISH -2.06%BEST+1.36%08hWORST-1.46%04hTYPICAL |Δ|0.56%mean absoluteCUMULATIVE-2.06%Σ signed ΔSTREAK↘ 4down-runASIA · 00-08 UTCμ -0.25% · Σ -2.03%EUROPE · 08-16 UTCμ +0.18% · Σ +1.47%US · 16-24 UTCμ -0.19% · Σ -1.50%CUMULATIVE Δ PATH · final -2.06%+2.06%-2.14%0.00% · 13h0.00% · 13h·13h1.05% · 14h1.05% · 14h1.05%14h0.34% · 15h0.34% · 15h0.34%15h0.57% · 16h0.57% · 16h0.57%16h0.10% · 17h0.10% · 17h0.10%17h-1.43% · 18h-1.43% · 18h-1.43%18h0.17% · 19h0.17% · 19h0.17%19h-0.03% · 20h-0.03% · 20h-0.03%20h1.26% · 21h1.26% · 21h1.26%21h-1.22% · 22h-1.22% · 22h-1.22%22h-0.91% · 23h-0.91% · 23h-0.91%23h-0.34% · 00h-0.34% · 00h-0.34%00h0.22% · 01h0.22% · 01h0.22%01h-0.22% · 02h-0.22% · 02h-0.22%02h-0.08% · 03h-0.08% · 03h-0.08%03h-1.46% · 04h-1.46% · 04h-1.46%04h▼ WORST0.02% · 05h0.02% · 05h0.02%05h0.56% · 06h0.56% · 06h0.56%06h-0.73% · 07h-0.73% · 07h-0.73%07h1.36% · 08h1.36% · 08h1.36%08h★ BEST-0.20% · 09h-0.20% · 09h-0.20%09h-0.43% · 10h-0.43% · 10h-0.43%10h-0.52% · 11h-0.52% · 11h-0.52%11h-0.12% · 12h-0.12% · 12h-0.12%12hTIME PATTERNEurope-led (+1.47%)RUNSup max 4 · down max 4BREADTH42% up · 54% down · 4% flat
10 up bars · 13 down · best 1.36% · worst -1.46% · typical |Δ| 0.556%

§12 · Equity curve & underwater drawdown

Cumulative compounded return + running peak-to-trough
EQUITY & DRAWDOWN ANALYSIS · n=25 barsLOSS WITH MODERATE DD (-2.10%)FINAL-2.10%MAX DD-4.16%RECOVERYONGOING · 19 barsMAX RUN-UP+2.07%UNDERWATER19/25 (76%)STREAK↘ 4EQUITY CURVE · end 0.9790 · peak 1.0207 · range [0.9783, 1.0207]1.02070.9783break-even = 1★ PEAK 1.0207UNDERWATER DRAWDOWN · max -4.16% · moderate0%-4.16%▼ TROUGH -4.16%TOP DRAWDOWN PERIODS · 1 total#1 -4.16%bar 7-25 · 19 bars · ONGOINGDD SEVERITYmoderate (max -4.16%)RECOVERYongoing · 19 barsTIME UNDER WATER76% of session · 19/25 bars
final equity 0.9790 (-2.10%) · max DD -4.16% · time-under-water 19/25 bars

§13 · Rolling-window statistics (w = 6 bars)

Rolling annualised Sharpe ratio · green positive · red negative
n=19 · +5 / −14 (26% positive) · μ=-18.48 · σ=26.15UNPROFITABLE STRATEGYLAST -13.29 (+0.20σ vs μ)74.0937.050.00-37.05-74.09μ = -18.4811.5811.5814.7514.75-6.27-6.2711.0511.05-18.29-18.29-33.22-33.22-19.21-19.21-18.28-18.28-21.68-21.68-74.09-74.09-71.27-71.27-49.06-49.06-21.73-21.73-42.82-42.82-5.08-5.08-7.01-7.0111.9711.970.830.83-13.29-13.29v > 0 · positivev < 0 · negativeμ mean lineμ ± σ bandlatest bar (outlined)
latest -13.289 · range [-74.09, 14.75] · μ -18.480 · positive Sharpe = excess-return-per-risk earned by buying-and-holding through this window
Rolling annualised volatility (%)
n=19 · μ=75.5492 · σ=13.2990 · range [50.4096, 95.4448] · R²=0.043▼ FALLING -10.48%σ EXTREME 17.60%LAST 70.512595.444884.186072.927261.668450.4096μ = 75.5492max 95.4448min 50.4096dataMA(3)OLS R²=0.04μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
latest 70.51% · range [50.41%, 95.44%] · μ 75.55% · σ̂ scaled to annualised (×√8760)
Rolling lag-1 autocorrelation ρ(1)
n=19 · +3 / −16 (16% positive) · μ=-0.171 · σ=0.224MEAN-REVERSIONLAST -0.310 (-0.62σ vs μ)0.5860.2930.000-0.293-0.586μ = -0.1710.0690.0690.0750.075-0.067-0.067-0.066-0.066-0.407-0.407-0.151-0.151-0.093-0.093-0.121-0.121-0.191-0.1910.4130.413-0.050-0.050-0.335-0.335-0.098-0.098-0.288-0.288-0.288-0.288-0.333-0.333-0.586-0.586-0.425-0.425-0.310-0.310v > 0 · positivev < 0 · negativeμ mean lineμ ± σ bandlatest bar (outlined)
latest -0.310 · |ρ| > 0.3 ⇒ regime with persistence (ρ > 0) or reversal (ρ < 0) · |ρ| ≤ 0.1 = consistent with random walk

§14 · Hypothesis tests (α = 0.05)

Formal inference at 5% significance
1 of 6 REJECT · mixed evidence1 reject·5 pass·α = 0.05
𝒩

Jarque-Bera

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Δln-r ~ Normal(μ, σ²)

STATISTIC
0.0038
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.9981
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainednormality not rejected
ρ

Ljung-Box(h=5)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: No serial autocorrelation up to lag 5

STATISTIC
3.7614
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.5865
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedconsistent with white noise
Ψ

Dickey-Fuller (τ_μ)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: p has a unit root (non-stationary)

STATISTIC
-0.9998
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.7519
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedrandom-walk behaviour (crit ≈ -2.86)
±

Wald-Wolfowitz runs

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Sign sequence of Δ is random

STATISTIC
-0.1323
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.8948
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedsigns appear random (12 runs)
χ

KPSS (μ stationarity)

REJECT H₀*

H₀: p IS level-stationary

STATISTIC
0.7355
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.0103
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p < α · rejection zonenon-stationary (crit 0.463)
χ

Variance ratio q=3

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Δln-r is a random walk · VR = 1

STATISTIC
-0.5563
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.5780
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedVR 0.831 ≈ 1 (RW behaviour)
Each row states an explicit null H₀, the test statistic, an approximated p-value, and the decision. REJECT means evidence against H₀. KPSS complements ADF (rejecting both ⇒ ambiguous; rejecting one ⇒ clean verdict).

§15 · Spectral analysis (DFT periodogram)

Power spectrum of Δln-r · ‖X̂(k)‖²/n
n=12 bins · noise floor μ=5.42e-5 · top T=6.00h (22.4%) · top-3 cover 59.5%BROADBAND · 3 CYCLEScumulative energy ↗ (3 bins above 2× noise)1.5e-41.1e-47.3e-53.6e-50.0e+0μ noise floor2× noise (significance)period 24.0 · power 3.93e-5 · 6.0% energyperiod 24.0 · power 3.93e-5 · 6.0% energyperiod 12.0 · power 4.85e-6 · 0.7% energyperiod 12.0 · power 4.85e-6 · 0.7% energyperiod 8.0 · power 4.32e-5 · 6.6% energyperiod 8.0 · power 4.32e-5 · 6.6% energyperiod 6.0 · power 1.46e-4 · 22.4% energyperiod 6.0 · power 1.46e-4 · 22.4% energyperiod 4.8 · power 6.54e-5 · 10.1% energyperiod 4.8 · power 6.54e-5 · 10.1% energyperiod 4.0 · power 5.22e-5 · 8.0% energyperiod 4.0 · power 5.22e-5 · 8.0% energyperiod 3.4 · power 1.82e-6 · 0.3% energyperiod 3.4 · power 1.82e-6 · 0.3% energyperiod 3.0 · power 4.74e-5 · 7.3% energyperiod 3.0 · power 4.74e-5 · 7.3% energyperiod 2.7 · power 1.11e-4 · 17.0% energyperiod 2.7 · power 1.11e-4 · 17.0% energyperiod 2.4 · power 8.71e-7 · 0.1% energyperiod 2.4 · power 8.71e-7 · 0.1% energyperiod 2.2 · power 1.31e-4 · 20.1% energyperiod 2.2 · power 1.31e-4 · 20.1% energyperiod 2.0 · power 8.00e-6 · 1.2% energyperiod 2.0 · power 8.00e-6 · 1.2% energy50% by T=4.0h#1 dominantT=6.00h#2T=2.18h#3T=2.67hT=2hT=3hT=4hT=6hT=8hT=12hT=16hT=24h← shorter cycle (high freq · Nyquist=½) · period T (bars per cycle) · longer cycle (low freq · 1/n) →#1 dominant#2 peak#3 peak> 2× noisenoiseμ floor2μ sig.cum energy
dominant period ≈ 6.00h (freq 0.167) · concentrates 22.4% of total energy · Σ|X̂|²/n = 6.499e-4

▸ Depth section using sovereign-store price series (5000 bars · effective 5257847 bars/year) — annualisation reflects native polling cadence, not upstream timeframes.

§16 · NOSTRADAMUS continuous quant — perp leverage & bootstrap MC

Continuous-price extension of the prediction-market quant module. Kelly growth on observed returns (Merton μ/σ² parametric vs argmax empirical), Monte-Carlo equity fan bootstrapped from the historical return distribution at quarter-Kelly leverage, and an annualized return decomposition. Sweep parameters in the simulator.

§17 · Continuous Kelly

Continuous-Kelly growth · g(f) = E[ln(1 + f·r)]
NO LONG EDGE · μ -0.000% per barparametric μ/σ² short edge (μ<0) · μ -0.000% · σ 0.05%
μ per barmean
-0.000%
σ per barvol
0.05%
Empirical f★argmax g(f)
0.00×
from observed distribution
Parametric f★μ/σ²
-14.47×
Merton continuous-time
Half-Kelly½ f★
0.00×
~⅔ of full growth, half the variance
Quarter-Kelly¼ f★
0.00×
industry default — survives model error
-0.00%0.02%0.05%0.07%0.10%0.0×1.6×3.2×4.8×6.4×8.0×leverage fraction fexpected log-growth per bar
g(f) empiricalf★ argmaxparametric f★
Maximum expected log-growth from leveraging the historical return distribution. Empirical f★ argmaxes the sample expectation; parametric f★ = μ/σ² is Merton's continuous-time optimum.

§18 · MC equity fan

Bootstrapped equity fan at 0.10× leverage
Median CAGR/bar -0.000% · annualized Sharpe -10.04400 paths × 720 bars · leverage 0.10× · bootstrap from 4999 observed returns
Sharpe / barμ/σ
-0.004
annualized -10.04
μ per barafter L
-0.000%
σ per barafter L
0.00%
VaR 95%5%
0.00%
per-bar worst-case
CVaR 95%ES
0.01%
mean tail loss
Max DD (median)MDD
-0.0%
0.95×0.97×0.99×1.01×1.03×1.05×0120240360480600720startbar #equity multiple
median25/75 band5/95 band
Median path with 25/75 and 5/95 percentile bands across 400 simulated careers. Bars resample with replacement from the observed return distribution — preserves fat tails the parametric model misses.

§19 · Annualized breakdown

Annualized return components
APR -1000% · APY -100% · Sharpe -15.70σ ann 108% · Sortino -14.94 · n 4999 · ⚠ capped (n=4999 too small to support 8760-bar projection)
-1883%-1481%-1078%-675%-273%130%-1000.0%APR (simple)-100.0%APY (compound)108.5%Ann. vol σ-1569.5%Sharpe (ann)-1493.8%Sortino (ann)
Simple APR vs compounded APY · annualized volatility · risk-adjusted Sharpe and Sortino. All scaled by √(periods/yr).

§20 · GARCH(1,1) volatility band

GARCH(1,1) · conditional vol envelope (±2σ)
GARCH persistence α+β = 0.980· σ̂ₜ = 1.000% · long-run σ = 2.236%
0.0220.0230.0240.0240.0250.025t-4999t-4166t-3333t-2500t-1666t-833t-0

Persistence near 1 ⇒ vol clusters strongly (slow mean reversion). Long-run σ is the unconditional target the conditional vol orbits. The ±2σ band reflects time-varying scale, unlike a flat-vol band.

Time-varying volatility band fitted to the price series. Persistence α+β > 0.98 means vol shocks decay slowly — recent moves stay relevant.

§∞ · Provenance & attestation

Upstream
api.hyperliquid.xyz
Snapshot fetched
2026-06-14 12:19:40 UTC
Snapshot age
3.6s
History points
25 hourly closes
Page rendered
2026-06-14 12:19:44 UTC
Storage policy
no persistence — fetched on every request
SHA-256 attestation
6c569d7fa13f788b3276c505a026687016c06d81cdada9fa82371607833ffc52 · deterministic hash of the source snapshot — proves this page was rendered from this exact data
Open data licence
CC0 / public domain · free to mirror, syndicate, analyse

§∞-2 · Related markets · explore more

HL PREDGermany94.3¢HL PREDSpain90.3¢HL PREDUruguay66.6¢POLYMARKETWill Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?0¢POLYMARKETWill Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?0¢POLYMARKETUS x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?17¢HL PERPBTC-USD perpetual$64,473HL PERPETH-USD perpetual$1,673.3HL PERPHYPE-USD perpetual$61.06

Also see: /arb opportunities · RSS feed

Market depth

▸ live order book · Hyperliquid perp
Depth within 1bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Depth within 5bp
$1.53K
bid $665 · ask $864
Depth within 10bp
$12.18K
bid $5.41K · ask $6.77K
Depth within 50bp
$44.64K
bid $21.18K · ask $23.46K
Mid price
0.023464
(best bid + best ask) / 2
Spread
4.7bp
(bestAsk − bestBid) / mid
Imbalance (whole book)
-0.049
ask-heavy
Imbalance (top-5)
-0.112
ask-heavy top-of-book

Slippage scenarios

▸ live book walk · Hyperliquid perp

Simulating a market order at three notionals against the live book. Slippage = avg execution price vs. mid, in basis points. Worst fill = price of the deepest level touched. Live JSON: /api/asset/hl-aixbt/slippage?size=10000&side=buy

SideNotionalAvg fillSlippageWorst fillLevelsStatus
BUY$1.00K0.0234712.85bp0.0234773FILLED
BUY$10.00K0.0234858.89bp0.0235039FILLED
BUY$100.00K0.02351621.89bp0.02357020PARTIAL
SELL$1.00K0.0234573.34bp0.0234522FILLED
SELL$10.00K0.02343612.03bp0.02340512FILLED
SELL$100.00K0.02340624.79bp0.02335920PARTIAL

Funding carry

▸ LONGS PAY · shorts receive
Hourly funding
+7.949e-6
0.00079% / hr
Annualised APR
6.968%
hourly · 24 · 365.25
Long: days to 1% carry
52.4d
longs pay
Short: days to 1% carry
52.4d
shorts receive
SideDirectionAnnualised carryDays → 1%Days → 10%
LONGPAY-6.968%52.4d1.44y
SHORTRECEIVE6.968%52.4d1.44y

/api/asset/hl-aixbt/carry · same metrics, JSON

Volume profile

▸ real volume · Hyperliquid candlesstep $ 1 · 25 records
Price binBarsVolumeDistribution
$0.000000–$1.0000★25$14.15M

★ POC = Point of Control (highest-volume bin). Live JSON: /api/asset/hl-aixbt/volprofile?priceStep=1

Order flow

▸ BID-LEAN · +0.468 · Hyperliquid candles
Bars (buy / sell)
10 / 13
2 unclassified
Buy weight
$9.90M
real volume
Sell weight
$3.59M
real volume
Net delta
$6.31M
buyers net
Imbalance
46.76%
(buy − sell) / (buy + sell)
Toxicity (VPIN)
46.8%
two-sided / balanced
Impact (|Δp|/vol)
—
needs real volume

Sparkline = cumulative delta over the 25-record window./api/asset/hl-aixbt/flow?rollingWindow=30

Cascade clusters

▸ DOWN · 4 found · deepest 2.44% · Hyperliquid candles

Price-only proxy for forced-unwind clusters. No exchange liquidation feed is wired — read each row as a candidate event, not a confirmed liquidation.

#WindowDurationPeak → TroughDrawdownBars
#12026-06-13 22:00:00Z3.0h0.024428→0.0238312.444%4
#22026-06-14 04:00:00Z3.0h0.023883→0.0234321.888%4
#32026-06-13 18:00:00Z2.0h0.024438→0.0240901.424%3

/api/asset/hl-aixbt/cascades?windowMs=10800000&minDrawdownPct=0.005 · full list + parameters in JSON

Risk metrics

▸ sovereign store · 5,000 barsperiods/year ≈ 5.26M
Realized vol (annualised)
108.48%
σ per bar = 0.000473
Mean return (annualised)
-1702.66%
μ per bar = -0.000003
Sharpe (rf=0)
-15.70
annualised; risk-free assumed zero
Max drawdown
3.56%
peak 0.02 → trough 0.02 over 3618 bars

/api/asset/hl-aixbt/risk · same metrics, JSON