HYPERLIQUID · PERPETUAL FUTURES

ACE

ACE-USD perpetual · 24/7 trading on Hyperliquid

▸ Advanced metrics · M2M bundle

hyperliquid · perp-ace · fresh · feed 2s old
24h sparkline · 60 pts▼ -1.17%
realized vol (ann.)
73.97%
max drawdown
0.71%
sharpe
16.84
ulcer index
0.34%
RMS drawdown
pain index
0.27%
mean drawdown
mod. VaR 95%
0.04%
Cornish-Fisher
martin ratio
3673.07
ret / ulcer
CDaR 95%
0.60%
cond. drawdown
gain/pain
1.06
Σgain / Σ|loss|
sterling
2072.91
ret / CDaR
omega (θ=0)
1.06
upside/downside
roll spread
2.8 bps
implied (price-only)
bars used
2000
store
spread
—
24h Δ
-1.17%
flow lean
—
carry
longs_pay
10.95%
signalSHORTconfidence 39%suggested side: SELL
  • 24h change -1.17%
  • funding: longs pay — perp shorts get paid to wait
Same bundle via M2M API: /api/m2m/hl-ace/bundle · venue execution: hyperliquid →
LIVEPOLL0SRCFRESH2.1s⏱--:--:-- UTC8NEXT8.0sUP0s--:--HIST0/30
▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC FRESH·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC FRESH·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·
MARK · live
$0.085
24h Δ · live
-1.17%
24h vol · live
$0.1M
ACE · live 24h price
n=25 · μ=0.0849 · σ=0.0004 · range [0.0839, 0.0857] · R²=0.659▼ FALLING -1.40%σ LOW 0.53%LAST 0.08450.08570.08520.08480.08440.0839μ = 0.0849max 0.0857min 0.0839dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.66μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxminlive endpoint
25 closes · last $0.08
Funding direction · live
Long fee 48.1%Short fee 51.9%SHORT FEE51.9%
Σ = 0.0%
Σ-sides total = 0.00% (100.00pp arb gap)
H(p) entropy = 0.999 / 1.00 bits (100%) · max uncertainty (~50/50)
Long fee
48.1%▬ +0.00pp
Short fee
51.9%▬ +0.00pp
1h funding 0.001250% · longs pay
Hourly contract volume · live
n=25 · Σ=1,284,168 · μ=51366.7 · σ=167912.4 · CV=3.27BURSTY · concentratedcumulative energy ↗ · 50% by h=190214,059428,118642,177856,237μ = 51367856,236.5950%h1h5h9h13h17h21h25#1 peak#2-3> μactivequietμ linecum energy
peak 856237 contracts
Live numerics · pulse on poll
LIVE NUMERICS9 metrics·POLL 0
⏱snapshot age
2.1s
$mark $
$0.0846
$mid $
$0.0846
◉prev-day close
$0.0856
Δ24h Δ %
-1.168%
$24h vol $
$108.61k
◐open interest $
$158.80k
%funding (1h)
0.001250%
%funding (yr)
+10.95%/yr

§1 · 24h time-series

Close price · hourly
n=25 · μ=0.0849 · σ=0.0004 · range [0.0839, 0.0857] · R²=0.659▼ FALLING -1.40%σ LOW 0.53%LAST 0.08450.08570.08520.08480.08440.0839μ = 0.0849max 0.0857min 0.0839dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.66μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
mark $0.0846 · 24h -1.17% · range $[0.0839, 0.0857]
OHLC candles · hourly
n=25 · up 12 · down 13 (48% up) · range [0.0835, 0.0865] · σ=0.0004 · CV=0.01 · bodyµ=47%BEARISH -0.94%CLOSE 0.0845 vs OPEN 0.0853 (-0.94%)&#9660; CLOSE 0.08450.08650.08570.08500.08430.0835μ close = 0.0849O0.085 H0.086 L0.085 C0.086 (+0.47%)O0.085 H0.086 L0.085 C0.086 (+0.47%)O0.086 H0.086 L0.085 C0.085 (-0.35%)O0.086 H0.086 L0.085 C0.085 (-0.35%)O0.085 H0.085 L0.085 C0.085 (-0.12%)O0.085 H0.085 L0.085 C0.085 (-0.12%)O0.085 H0.086 L0.085 C0.086 (+0.47%)O0.085 H0.086 L0.085 C0.086 (+0.47%)O0.085 H0.086 L0.085 C0.085 (-0.23%)O0.085 H0.086 L0.085 C0.085 (-0.23%)O0.085 H0.085 L0.085 C0.085 (-0.23%)O0.085 H0.085 L0.085 C0.085 (-0.23%)O0.085 H0.085 L0.085 C0.085 (-0.12%)O0.085 H0.085 L0.085 C0.085 (-0.12%)O0.085 H0.085 L0.085 C0.085 (+0.47%)O0.085 H0.085 L0.085 C0.085 (+0.47%)O0.085 H0.085 L0.085 C0.085 (-0.12%)O0.085 H0.085 L0.085 C0.085 (-0.12%)O0.085 H0.086 L0.085 C0.085 (+0.47%)O0.085 H0.086 L0.085 C0.085 (+0.47%)O0.085 H0.086 L0.085 C0.085 (-0.23%)O0.085 H0.086 L0.085 C0.085 (-0.23%)O0.085 H0.085 L0.085 C0.085 (-0.12%)O0.085 H0.085 L0.085 C0.085 (-0.12%)O0.085 H0.085 L0.085 C0.085 (-0.59%)O0.085 H0.085 L0.085 C0.085 (-0.59%)O0.085 H0.085 L0.085 C0.085 (+0.59%)O0.085 H0.085 L0.085 C0.085 (+0.59%)O0.085 H0.085 L0.085 C0.085 (+0.00%)O0.085 H0.085 L0.085 C0.085 (+0.00%)O0.085 H0.085 L0.085 C0.085 (+0.47%)O0.085 H0.085 L0.085 C0.085 (+0.47%)-1.2%O0.085 H0.085 L0.084 C0.084 (-1.17%)O0.085 H0.085 L0.084 C0.084 (-1.17%)O0.084 H0.085 L0.084 C0.085 (+0.36%)O0.084 H0.085 L0.084 C0.085 (+0.36%)O0.085 H0.086 L0.085 C0.085 (-0.12%)O0.085 H0.086 L0.085 C0.085 (-0.12%)O0.085 H0.085 L0.084 C0.084 (-0.71%)O0.085 H0.085 L0.084 C0.084 (-0.71%)O0.084 H0.084 L0.084 C0.084 (+0.36%)O0.084 H0.084 L0.084 C0.084 (+0.36%)O0.084 H0.085 L0.084 C0.085 (+0.59%)O0.084 H0.085 L0.084 C0.085 (+0.59%)O0.085 H0.085 L0.084 C0.084 (-0.35%)O0.085 H0.085 L0.084 C0.084 (-0.35%)O0.084 H0.085 L0.084 C0.085 (+0.24%)O0.084 H0.085 L0.084 C0.085 (+0.24%)O0.085 H0.085 L0.084 C0.085 (+0.00%)O0.085 H0.085 L0.084 C0.085 (+0.00%)#1#5#9#13#17#21#25up bar (C≥O)down bar (C<O)MA(5) closeμ closedoji (~no body)biggest body
25 bars
Hourly volume (base units)
n=25 · Σ=1,284,168 · μ=51366.7 · σ=167912.4 · CV=3.27BURSTY · concentratedcumulative energy &nearr; · 50% by h=190214,059428,118642,177856,237μ = 5136713,232.2 · 1.5% peak13,232.2 · 1.5% peak13,147.98 · 1.5% peak13,147.98 · 1.5% peak17,099.63 · 2.0% peak17,099.63 · 2.0% peak11,471.23 · 1.3% peak11,471.23 · 1.3% peak17,589.86 · 2.1% peak17,589.86 · 2.1% peak13,324.52 · 1.6% peak13,324.52 · 1.6% peak19,396.84 · 2.3% peak19,396.84 · 2.3% peak17,580.56 · 2.1% peak17,580.56 · 2.1% peak18,228.02 · 2.1% peak18,228.02 · 2.1% peak10,946.55 · 1.3% peak10,946.55 · 1.3% peak11,788.6 · 1.4% peak11,788.6 · 1.4% peak16,985.16 · 2.0% peak16,985.16 · 2.0% peak48,522.55 · 5.7% peak48,522.55 · 5.7% peak13,807.78 · 1.6% peak13,807.78 · 1.6% peak13,426.02 · 1.6% peak13,426.02 · 1.6% peak13,025.07 · 1.5% peak13,025.07 · 1.5% peak17,071.78 · 2.0% peak17,071.78 · 2.0% peak24,637.62 · 2.9% peak24,637.62 · 2.9% peak856,236.59856,236.59 · 100.0% peak856,236.59 · 100.0% peak23,679.53 · 2.8% peak23,679.53 · 2.8% peak27,312.43 · 3.2% peak27,312.43 · 3.2% peak34,238 · 4.0% peak34,238 · 4.0% peak15,145.67 · 1.8% peak15,145.67 · 1.8% peak12,281 · 1.4% peak12,281 · 1.4% peak3,992.97 · 0.5% peak3,992.97 · 0.5% peak50%#1#5#9#13#17#21#25#1 peak#2-3> μactivequietμ linecum energy
Σ vol 1284168 · peak 856237 · CV 3.27

§2 · Returns distribution (log-returns)

Histogram of rₜ = ln(pₜ/pₜ₋₁)
n=24 · 12 bins · μ=-0.0005 · σ=0.0042 · skew=-0.42 (symmetric) · kurt=-0.51 (mesokurtic)65320 1-99.44bpbin -99.44bp · n=1 · 16.7% peakbin -99.44bp · n=1 · 16.7% peak 1-85.67bpbin -85.67bp · n=1 · 16.7% peakbin -85.67bp · n=1 · 16.7% peak-71.89bp 1-58.12bpbin -58.12bp · n=1 · 16.7% peakbin -58.12bp · n=1 · 16.7% peak 1-44.35bpbin -44.35bp · n=1 · 16.7% peakbin -44.35bp · n=1 · 16.7% peak 3-30.58bpbin -30.58bp · n=3 · 50.0% peakbin -30.58bp · n=3 · 50.0% peak 6-16.81bpbin -16.81bp · n=6 · 100.0% peakbin -16.81bp · n=6 · 100.0% peak 1-3.04bpbin -3.04bp · n=1 · 16.7% peakbin -3.04bp · n=1 · 16.7% peak 110.73bpbin 10.73bp · n=1 · 16.7% peakbin 10.73bp · n=1 · 16.7% peak 224.50bpbin 24.50bp · n=2 · 33.3% peakbin 24.50bp · n=2 · 33.3% peak 438.27bpbin 38.27bp · n=4 · 66.7% peakbin 38.27bp · n=4 · 66.7% peak 352.04bpbin 52.04bp · n=3 · 50.0% peakbin 52.04bp · n=3 · 50.0% peakμΔ < 0 · loss barsΔ ≈ 0 · flatΔ > 0 · gain barsN(μ,σ²) referenceμ line · ±σ band shaded
n=24 · positive 10 · negative 13
Q-Q plot · standardised rₜ vs N(0,1)
n=24 · skew=-0.48 · kurt=-0.40 · near 20 / mid 4 / far 0 · OLS slope=1.00 intercept=-0.00MATCHES NORMAL · WELL-BEHAVEDUPPER TAIL NORMALLOWER TAIL NORMAL-3σ-3σ-2σ-2σ-1σ-1σ+0σ+0σ+1σ+1σ+2σ+2σ+3σ+3σsample ↓marginal: sample bars + theoretical N(0,1) curve →theoretical Φ⁻¹(p) →↑ sample z-quantile|Δ| < 0.3σ · on the line|Δ| < 1σ · moderate|Δ| ≥ 1σ · outliery = x refOLS fit

§3 · Spot quote

Mark price
$0.0846
Mid price
$0.0846
24h change
-1.17%
Mark–mid spread
0.00 bps
Prev-day close
$0.0856

§4 · Sample moments (prices)

Descriptive statistics · 5-number summary · shape diagnostics
SAMPLE MOMENTS · N=25APPROXIMATELY NORMAL · WELL-BEHAVED
μ MEAN0.0849$95% CI: [0.0847$, 0.0850$]
σ STD DEV0.0004$σ² = 0.002×10⁻⁴ · CV = 0.53%
med MEDIAN0.0850$Q₁ 0.0845$ · Q₃ 0.0851$
FIVE-NUMBER SUMMARY · BOX PLOTrange 0.0018$ · IQR 0.0006$ (1.349σ→0.0006$)
min 0.0839$Q₁ 0.0845$med 0.0850$Q₃ 0.0851$max 0.0857$μ
SKEWNESS · G₁-0.254approximately symmetric
−3−10+1+3
EXCESS KURTOSIS · G₂-0.793mesokurtic · normal-like
−30+2+4+6
μ ↔ medianμ < med · left-tailed|μ−med| / σ = 0.32
σ × 1.349 ↔ IQRconsistent with normalratio = 1.00
range ↔ σwide tails (range > 4σ)range / σ = 4.03
μ = mean · σ = standard deviation · CV = coefficient of variation. Skew (G₁): >0 right-skewed. Kurt (G₂, excess): >0 leptokurtic. 95% CI = μ ± 1.96·SE.

§5 · Returns analytics (log-returns)

Risk-adjusted performance · log-returns
RETURNS · RISK-ADJUSTEDUNPROFITABLE · SR=-12.78
μᵣ MEAN / h-0.058755%drift is negative per h · |μ|/σ = 0.136
σᵣ STD / h0.430452%σ²ᵣ = 0.185×10⁻⁴ · CV = 7.33×
σ ANNUALISED40.29%/yrscaled by √8760 (hourly→yearly) · 0.430%/h base
RISK-ADJUSTED PERFORMANCEhigher = better edge per unit risk
SHARPE (annualised)-12.78negative edge
-2-10+1+2+3+4
SORTINO (annualised)-11.59downside drag
-2-10+1+2+3+4
CALMAR (return / max-DD)-100.00drawdown overwhelms returns
-20+2+4+6
RETURN-DISTRIBUTION SHAPE|skew| < 0.5 ≈ symmetric · |kurt| < 1 ≈ mesokurtic
SKEWNESS · G₁-0.52left-skewed · heavy negative tail
-3-10+1+3
EXCESS KURTOSIS · G₂-0.19mesokurtic · normal-like tails
-30+2+4+6
SORTINO vs SHARPEdownside vol < total vol · favourableSoR / SR = 0.91
CALMAR · DD CONTROLdrawdown > returns · adverseCR = -100.00
EXPECTED EDGE-514.70%/yr driftμ × 8760 = annualised expectation
rₜ = ln(pₜ/pₜ₋₁). σ × √8760 = annualised. Sharpe = μ/σ scaled; Sortino uses downside-only vol; Calmar = annual return / max drawdown.

§6 · Risk metrics

Tail risk + drawdown · downside diagnostics
TAIL & DRAWDOWN RISKELEVATED · 95% VaR 0.79%
VaR₉₅ (h)0.794%5% prob of larger adverse h move
VaR₉₉ (h)1.010%1% prob · extreme-tail threshold
ES₉₅ (CVaR)0.947%expected loss given 5% tail event
MAX DRAWDOWN2.10%19h from peak to trough
TAIL-RISK LADDER (h losses)larger negative = worse · markers show severity
0 · no lossVaR₉₅−0.794%VaR₉₉−1.010%ES₉₅−0.947%worst tail ←→ zero loss
MAX DRAWDOWN PROFILEmoderate drawdown · 19h duration
PEAK8.57$
−2.10% drawdown over 19h
8.39$TROUGH
ES / VaR · TAIL THICKNESSmild tail heaviness|ES₉₅| / |VaR₉₅| = 1.19× (normal ≈ 1.25)
VaR₉₉ / VaR₉₅ · CONCENTRATIONuniform tailratio = 1.27× (normal ≈ 1.41)
DRAWDOWN · CAPITAL DURATIONmoderate drawdownrecovery needed: +2.15% (compounding)
VaR = quantile loss · ES (CVaR) = expected loss conditional on tail · DD = peak-to-trough decline. Under normality ES₉₅/VaR₉₅ ≈ 1.25; ratio > 1.5 ⇒ fat-tail regime.

§7 · Technicals

RSI(14)
43.4 · neutral
Bollinger %B
0.354 · within band
Bollinger upper
$0.0855
Bollinger MA
$0.0847
Bollinger lower
$0.0839

§8 · Time-series structure

Regime & autocorrelation diagnostics
TIME-SERIES STRUCTUREREGIME: MEAN-REVERTING · ρ(1) -0.42 + ADF rejected
ρ(1) AUTOCORR-0.418negative · reversal
ρ(2) AUTOCORR-0.098lag-2 not significant
H · HURST EXPONENT0.610persistent
OLS TREND · t-STAT-6.666significant @ α=0.05
HURST EXPONENT [0, 1]persistent · H = 0.610
H = 0.610PERSISTENT
0
anti-persistent0.45
mean-reverting0.5
random walk0.55
persistent1
strongly trending
AUTOCORRELATION FUNCTION · ρ(k) for k=1..51 SIGNIFICANT LAG · k=1
k=1 ★-0.418k=2-0.098k=3+0.039k=4+0.129k=5-0.1980+1−1+0.41−0.41+ momentum (ρ > +0.41)− reversal (ρ < −0.41)noise (within band)±2/√n threshold
OLS TREND · t-STAT · [-5, +5]SIGNIFICANT @ 1% (|t|=6.67)
−5 reject−1.960 retain H₀+1.96+5 reject
REGIME CLASSIFICATIONMEAN-REVERTING · ρ(1) -0.42 + ADF rejectedfrom Hurst + ρ(1) joint diagnosis
PREDICTABILITY · score 0.64very high · strong structure|ρ(1)| + 2·|H − 0.5| heuristic
TREND SIGNIFICANCESIGNIFICANT @ 1% (|t|=6.67)α=0.05 critical |t|=1.96 · α=0.01 |t|=2.58
ρ(k) = lag-k sample autocorrelation · H = R/S Hurst exponent · t = OLS-trend t-statistic. Significance bands at ±2/√n approximate the 95% white-noise envelope. α=0.05 critical |t|=1.96; α=0.01 |t|=2.58.

§9 · Microstructure

24h volume (USD)
$108.61k
Open interest (USD)
$158.80k
Vol / OI (turnover)
0.68x
1h funding
0.001250%
Funding (annualised)
+10.95%/yr

§10 · Position sizing

Continuous Kelly (μ/σ²)
-10.000× leverage · optimal log-utility leverage
Half-Kelly
-5.000× · industry-standard conservative
Quarter-Kelly
-2.500×

§11 · Hourly return heatmap

24-hour signed Δln-r grid · green = up · red = down
HOURLY RETURN HEATMAP · n=24 bars · best 0.59% · worst -1.06% · typical |Δ| 0.35%MILD BEARISH -1.41%BEST+0.59%01hWORST-1.06%04hTYPICAL |Δ|0.35%mean absoluteCUMULATIVE-1.41%Σ signed ΔSTREAK▬ 0flat-runASIA · 00-08 UTCμ -0.16% · Σ -1.30%EUROPE · 08-16 UTCμ +0.06% · Σ +0.48%US · 16-24 UTCμ -0.07% · Σ -0.59%CUMULATIVE Δ PATH · final -1.41%+0.00%-2.12%-0.59% · 13h-0.59% · 13h-0.59%13h-0.12% · 14h-0.12% · 14h-0.12%14h0.47% · 15h0.47% · 15h0.47%15h-0.35% · 16h-0.35% · 16h-0.35%16h-0.24% · 17h-0.24% · 17h-0.24%17h-0.12% · 18h-0.12% · 18h-0.12%18h0.35% · 19h0.35% · 19h0.35%19h-0.12% · 20h-0.12% · 20h-0.12%20h0.35% · 21h0.35% · 21h0.35%21h-0.35% · 22h-0.35% · 22h-0.35%22h-0.12% · 23h-0.12% · 23h-0.12%23h-0.47% · 00h-0.47% · 00h-0.47%00h0.59% · 01h0.59% · 01h0.59%01h★ BEST-0.24% · 02h-0.24% · 02h-0.24%02h0.24% · 03h0.24% · 03h0.24%03h-1.06% · 04h-1.06% · 04h-1.06%04h▼ WORST0.36% · 05h0.36% · 05h0.36%05h0.12% · 06h0.12% · 06h0.12%06h-0.83% · 07h-0.83% · 07h-0.83%07h0.36% · 08h0.36% · 08h0.36%08h0.47% · 09h0.47% · 09h0.47%09h-0.36% · 10h-0.36% · 10h-0.36%10h0.24% · 11h0.24% · 11h0.24%11h0.00% · 12h0.00% · 12h·12hTIME PATTERNEurope-led (+0.48%)RUNSup max 2 · down max 3BREADTH42% up · 54% down · 4% flat
10 up bars · 13 down · best 0.59% · worst -1.06% · typical |Δ| 0.354%

§12 · Equity curve & underwater drawdown

Cumulative compounded return + running peak-to-trough
EQUITY & DRAWDOWN ANALYSIS · n=25 barsLOSS WITH MODERATE DD (-1.42%)FINAL-1.42%MAX DD-2.12%RECOVERYONGOING · 24 barsMAX RUN-UP+0.00%UNDERWATER24/25 (96%)STREAK▬ 0EQUITY CURVE · end 0.9858 · peak 1.0000 · range [0.9788, 1.0000]1.00000.9788break-even = 1★ PEAK 1.0000UNDERWATER DRAWDOWN · max -2.12% · moderate0%-2.12%▼ TROUGH -2.12%TOP DRAWDOWN PERIODS · 1 total#1 -2.12%bar 2-25 · 24 bars · ONGOINGDD SEVERITYmoderate (max -2.12%)RECOVERYongoing · 24 barsTIME UNDER WATER96% of session · 24/25 bars
final equity 0.9858 (-1.42%) · max DD -2.12% · time-under-water 24/25 bars

§13 · Rolling-window statistics (w = 6 bars)

Rolling annualised Sharpe ratio · green positive · red negative
n=19 · +3 / −16 (16% positive) · μ=-11.17 · σ=13.06UNPROFITABLE STRATEGYLAST -3.73 (+0.57σ vs μ)41.4820.740.00-20.74-41.48μ = -11.17-41.48-41.48-0.00-0.00-0.00-0.00-6.07-6.07-6.09-6.090.000.00-15.92-15.92-4.46-4.46-8.76-8.76-13.75-13.75-28.99-28.99-15.01-15.010.000.00-37.60-37.60-20.27-20.27-13.69-13.693.623.62-0.00-0.00-3.73-3.73v > 0 · positivev < 0 · negativeμ mean lineμ ± σ bandlatest bar (outlined)
latest -3.731 · range [-41.48, 3.62] · μ -11.168 · positive Sharpe = excess-return-per-risk earned by buying-and-holding through this window
Rolling annualised volatility (%)
n=19 · μ=42.6397 · σ=11.9909 · range [26.9180, 62.8603] · R²=0.624▲ RISING +40.17%σ EXTREME 28.12%LAST 46.277362.860353.874844.889235.903626.9180μ = 42.6397max 62.8603min 26.9180dataMA(3)OLS R²=0.62μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
latest 46.28% · range [26.92%, 62.86%] · μ 42.64% · σ̂ scaled to annualised (×√8760)
Rolling lag-1 autocorrelation ρ(1)
n=19 · +0 / −19 (0% positive) · μ=-0.375 · σ=0.155MEAN-REVERSIONLAST -0.300 (+0.49σ vs μ)0.6150.3080.000-0.308-0.615μ = -0.375-0.164-0.164-0.274-0.274-0.250-0.250-0.037-0.037-0.468-0.468-0.500-0.500-0.211-0.211-0.425-0.425-0.523-0.523-0.492-0.492-0.414-0.414-0.615-0.615-0.451-0.451-0.507-0.507-0.589-0.589-0.253-0.253-0.271-0.271-0.386-0.386-0.300-0.300v > 0 · positivev < 0 · negativeμ mean lineμ ± σ bandlatest bar (outlined)
latest -0.300 · |ρ| > 0.3 ⇒ regime with persistence (ρ > 0) or reversal (ρ < 0) · |ρ| ≤ 0.1 = consistent with random walk

§14 · Hypothesis tests (α = 0.05)

Formal inference at 5% significance
2 of 6 REJECT · mixed evidence2 reject·4 pass·α = 0.05
𝒩

Jarque-Bera

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Δln-r ~ Normal(μ, σ²)

STATISTIC
1.1057
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.5753
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainednormality not rejected
ρ

Ljung-Box(h=5)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: No serial autocorrelation up to lag 5

STATISTIC
6.8596
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.2302
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedconsistent with white noise
Ψ

Dickey-Fuller (τ_μ)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: p has a unit root (non-stationary)

STATISTIC
-2.6117
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.0928
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedrandom-walk behaviour (crit ≈ -2.86)
±

Wald-Wolfowitz runs

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Sign sequence of Δ is random

STATISTIC
1.6061
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.1083
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedsigns appear random (16 runs)
χ

KPSS (μ stationarity)

REJECT H₀**

H₀: p IS level-stationary

STATISTIC
0.8134
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.0066
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p < α · rejection zonenon-stationary (crit 0.463)
χ

Variance ratio q=3

REJECT H₀*

H₀: Δln-r is a random walk · VR = 1

STATISTIC
-2.1435
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.0321
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p < α · rejection zoneVR 0.348 → mean-reverting
Each row states an explicit null H₀, the test statistic, an approximated p-value, and the decision. REJECT means evidence against H₀. KPSS complements ADF (rejecting both ⇒ ambiguous; rejecting one ⇒ clean verdict).

§15 · Spectral analysis (DFT periodogram)

Power spectrum of Δln-r · ‖X̂(k)‖²/n
n=12 bins · noise floor μ=2.05e-5 · top T=2.00h (27.1%) · top-3 cover 63.8%BROADBAND · 3 CYCLEScumulative energy ↗ (3 bins above 2× noise)6.7e-55.0e-53.3e-51.7e-50.0e+0μ noise floor2× noise (significance)period 24.0 · power 4.53e-7 · 0.2% energyperiod 24.0 · power 4.53e-7 · 0.2% energyperiod 12.0 · power 4.21e-6 · 1.7% energyperiod 12.0 · power 4.21e-6 · 1.7% energyperiod 8.0 · power 5.07e-6 · 2.1% energyperiod 8.0 · power 5.07e-6 · 2.1% energyperiod 6.0 · power 9.41e-6 · 3.8% energyperiod 6.0 · power 9.41e-6 · 3.8% energyperiod 4.8 · power 1.94e-5 · 7.9% energyperiod 4.8 · power 1.94e-5 · 7.9% energyperiod 4.0 · power 2.96e-6 · 1.2% energyperiod 4.0 · power 2.96e-6 · 1.2% energyperiod 3.4 · power 4.55e-5 · 18.5% energyperiod 3.4 · power 4.55e-5 · 18.5% energyperiod 3.0 · power 4.51e-5 · 18.3% energyperiod 3.0 · power 4.51e-5 · 18.3% energyperiod 2.7 · power 1.86e-5 · 7.5% energyperiod 2.7 · power 1.86e-5 · 7.5% energyperiod 2.4 · power 9.35e-6 · 3.8% energyperiod 2.4 · power 9.35e-6 · 3.8% energyperiod 2.2 · power 1.97e-5 · 8.0% energyperiod 2.2 · power 1.97e-5 · 8.0% energyperiod 2.0 · power 6.67e-5 · 27.1% energyperiod 2.0 · power 6.67e-5 · 27.1% energy50% by T=3.0h#1 dominantT=2.00h#2T=3.43h#3T=3.00hT=2hT=3hT=4hT=6hT=8hT=12hT=16hT=24h← shorter cycle (high freq · Nyquist=½) · period T (bars per cycle) · longer cycle (low freq · 1/n) →#1 dominant#2 peak#3 peak> 2× noisenoiseμ floor2μ sig.cum energy
dominant period ≈ 2.00h (freq 0.500) · concentrates 27.1% of total energy · Σ|X̂|²/n = 2.465e-4

▸ Depth section using sovereign-store price series (5000 bars · effective 5257847 bars/year) — annualisation reflects native polling cadence, not upstream timeframes.

§16 · NOSTRADAMUS continuous quant — perp leverage & bootstrap MC

Continuous-price extension of the prediction-market quant module. Kelly growth on observed returns (Merton μ/σ² parametric vs argmax empirical), Monte-Carlo equity fan bootstrapped from the historical return distribution at quarter-Kelly leverage, and an annualized return decomposition. Sweep parameters in the simulator.

§17 · Continuous Kelly

Continuous-Kelly growth · g(f) = E[ln(1 + f·r)]
NO LONG EDGE · μ -0.000% per barparametric μ/σ² -9.16× · μ -0.000% · σ 0.04%
μ per barmean
-0.000%
σ per barvol
0.04%
Empirical f★argmax g(f)
0.00×
from observed distribution
Parametric f★μ/σ²
-9.16×
Merton continuous-time
Half-Kelly½ f★
0.00×
~⅔ of full growth, half the variance
Quarter-Kelly¼ f★
0.00×
industry default — survives model error
-0.00%0.02%0.05%0.07%0.10%0.0×1.6×3.2×4.8×6.4×8.0×leverage fraction fexpected log-growth per bar
g(f) empiricalf★ argmaxparametric f★
Maximum expected log-growth from leveraging the historical return distribution. Empirical f★ argmaxes the sample expectation; parametric f★ = μ/σ² is Merton's continuous-time optimum.

§18 · MC equity fan

Bootstrapped equity fan at 0.10× leverage
Median CAGR/bar -0.000% · annualized Sharpe -9.97400 paths × 720 bars · leverage 0.10× · bootstrap from 4999 observed returns
Sharpe / barμ/σ
-0.004
annualized -9.97
μ per barafter L
-0.000%
σ per barafter L
0.00%
VaR 95%5%
0.00%
per-bar worst-case
CVaR 95%ES
0.00%
mean tail loss
Max DD (median)MDD
-0.0%
0.95×0.97×0.99×1.01×1.03×1.05×0120240360480600720startbar #equity multiple
median25/75 band5/95 band
Median path with 25/75 and 5/95 percentile bands across 400 simulated careers. Bars resample with replacement from the observed return distribution — preserves fat tails the parametric model misses.

§19 · Annualized breakdown

Annualized return components
APR -620% · APY -100% · Sharpe -7.53σ ann 82% · Sortino -2.22 · n 4999
-904%-704%-503%-302%-102%99%-619.8%APR (simple)-99.9%APY (compound)82.3%Ann. vol σ-753.4%Sharpe (ann)-222.2%Sortino (ann)
Simple APR vs compounded APY · annualized volatility · risk-adjusted Sharpe and Sortino. All scaled by √(periods/yr).

§20 · GARCH(1,1) volatility band

GARCH(1,1) · conditional vol envelope (±2σ)
GARCH persistence α+β = 0.980· σ̂ₜ = 1.001% · long-run σ = 2.236%
0.0800.0820.0840.0850.0870.089t-4999t-4166t-3333t-2500t-1666t-833t-0

Persistence near 1 ⇒ vol clusters strongly (slow mean reversion). Long-run σ is the unconditional target the conditional vol orbits. The ±2σ band reflects time-varying scale, unlike a flat-vol band.

Time-varying volatility band fitted to the price series. Persistence α+β > 0.98 means vol shocks decay slowly — recent moves stay relevant.

§∞ · Provenance & attestation

Upstream
api.hyperliquid.xyz
Snapshot fetched
2026-06-14 12:17:52 UTC
Snapshot age
2.1s
History points
25 hourly closes
Page rendered
2026-06-14 12:17:54 UTC
Storage policy
no persistence — fetched on every request
SHA-256 attestation
cd610a8655ba4cc33d0a78670cff826324f9330a7d4288877ec947261dbfa58a · deterministic hash of the source snapshot — proves this page was rendered from this exact data
Open data licence
CC0 / public domain · free to mirror, syndicate, analyse

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Also see: /arb opportunities · RSS feed

Market depth

▸ live order book · Hyperliquid perp
Depth within 1bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Depth within 5bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Depth within 10bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Depth within 50bp
$27.44K
bid $15.04K · ask $12.40K
Mid price
0.084600
(best bid + best ask) / 2
Spread
23.6bp
(bestAsk − bestBid) / mid
Imbalance (whole book)
-0.101
ask-heavy
Imbalance (top-5)
+0.085
bid-heavy top-of-book

Slippage scenarios

▸ live book walk · Hyperliquid perp

Simulating a market order at three notionals against the live book. Slippage = avg execution price vs. mid, in basis points. Worst fill = price of the deepest level touched. Live JSON: /api/asset/hl-ace/slippage?size=10000&side=buy

SideNotionalAvg fillSlippageWorst fillLevelsStatus
BUY$1.00K0.08470011.82bp0.0847001FILLED
BUY$10.00K0.08479122.52bp0.0849003FILLED
BUY$100.00K0.086523227.25bp0.08950020PARTIAL
SELL$1.00K0.08450011.82bp0.0845001FILLED
SELL$10.00K0.08445716.96bp0.0844002FILLED
SELL$100.00K0.083622115.64bp0.08190020PARTIAL

Funding carry

▸ LONGS PAY · shorts receive
Hourly funding
+1.250e-5
0.00125% / hr
Annualised APR
10.958%
hourly · 24 · 365.25
Long: days to 1% carry
33.3d
longs pay
Short: days to 1% carry
33.3d
shorts receive
SideDirectionAnnualised carryDays → 1%Days → 10%
LONGPAY-10.958%33.3d333.3d
SHORTRECEIVE10.958%33.3d333.3d

/api/asset/hl-ace/carry · same metrics, JSON

Volume profile

▸ real volume · Hyperliquid candlesstep $ 1 · 25 records
Price binBarsVolumeDistribution
$0.000000–$1.0000★25$1.28M

★ POC = Point of Control (highest-volume bin). Live JSON: /api/asset/hl-ace/volprofile?priceStep=1

Order flow

▸ BID-LEAN · +0.614 · Hyperliquid candles
Bars (buy / sell)
11 / 13
1 unclassified
Buy weight
$1.03M
real volume
Sell weight
$245.41K
real volume
Net delta
$780.12K
buyers net
Imbalance
61.38%
(buy − sell) / (buy + sell)
Toxicity (VPIN)
61.4%
one-sided / toxic
Impact (|Δp|/vol)
—
needs real volume

Sparkline = cumulative delta over the 25-record window./api/asset/hl-ace/flow?rollingWindow=30

Cascade clusters

▸ DOWN · 4 found · deepest 1.41% · Hyperliquid candles

Price-only proxy for forced-unwind clusters. No exchange liquidation feed is wired — read each row as a candidate event, not a confirmed liquidation.

#WindowDurationPeak → TroughDrawdownBars
#12026-06-14 04:00:00Z3.0h0.085100→0.0839001.410%4
#22026-06-14 00:00:00Z0ms0.085400→0.0846000.937%1
#32026-06-13 17:00:00Z1.0h0.085500→0.0849000.702%2

/api/asset/hl-ace/cascades?windowMs=10800000&minDrawdownPct=0.005 · full list + parameters in JSON

Risk metrics

▸ sovereign store · 5,000 barsperiods/year ≈ 5.26M
Realized vol (annualised)
82.27%
σ per bar = 0.000359
Mean return (annualised)
-619.79%
μ per bar = -0.000001
Sharpe (rf=0)
-7.53
annualised; risk-free assumed zero
Max drawdown
2.11%
peak 0.09 → trough 0.08 over 984 bars

/api/asset/hl-ace/risk · same metrics, JSON