HYPERLIQUID · PERPETUAL FUTURES

XPL

XPL-USD perpetual · 24/7 trading on Hyperliquid

▸ Advanced metrics · M2M bundle

hyperliquid · perp-xpl · fresh · feed 5s old
24h sparkline · 60 pts▼ -5.11%
realized vol (ann.)
153.21%
max drawdown
4.98%
sharpe
-13.92
ulcer index
1.86%
RMS drawdown
pain index
1.45%
mean drawdown
mod. VaR 95%
0.06%
Cornish-Fisher
martin ratio
-1145.03
ret / ulcer
CDaR 95%
4.73%
cond. drawdown
gain/pain
0.98
Σgain / Σ|loss|
sterling
-451.43
ret / CDaR
omega (θ=0)
0.98
upside/downside
roll spread
0.0 bps
implied (price-only)
bars used
2000
store
spread
—
24h Δ
-5.11%
flow lean
—
carry
longs_pay
10.95%
signalSHORTconfidence 40%suggested side: SELL
  • 24h change -5.11%
  • funding: longs pay — perp shorts get paid to wait
  • mark cheap vs HL oracle by 10.7bps — long bias
Same bundle via M2M API: /api/m2m/hl-XPL/bundle · venue execution: hyperliquid →
LIVEPOLL0SRCFRESH5.2s⏱--:--:-- UTC8NEXT8.0sUP0s--:--HIST0/30
▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC FRESH·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC FRESH·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·
MARK · live
$0.087
24h Δ · live
-5.11%
24h vol · live
$13.3M
XPL · live 24h price
n=25 · μ=0.0885 · σ=0.0012 · range [0.0869, 0.0904] · R²=0.046▼ FALLING -2.18%σ NORMAL 1.35%LAST 0.08720.09040.08950.08870.08780.0869μ = 0.0885max 0.0904min 0.0869dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.05μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxminlive endpoint
25 closes · last $0.09
Funding direction · live
Long fee 48.1%Short fee 51.9%SHORT FEE51.9%
Σ = 0.0%
Σ-sides total = 0.00% (100.00pp arb gap)
H(p) entropy = 0.999 / 1.00 bits (100%) · max uncertainty (~50/50)
Long fee
48.1%▬ +0.00pp
Short fee
51.9%▬ +0.00pp
1h funding 0.001250% · longs pay
Hourly contract volume · live
n=25 · Σ=150,806,914 · μ=6032276.6 · σ=5199281.9 · CV=0.86BURSTYcumulative energy ↗ · 50% by h=1406,344,83412,689,66819,034,50225,379,336μ = 603227725,379,33650%h1h5h9h13h17h21h25#1 peak#2-3> μactivequietμ linecum energy
peak 25379336 contracts
Live numerics · pulse on poll
LIVE NUMERICS9 metrics·POLL 0
⏱snapshot age
5.2s
$mark $
$0.0872
$mid $
$0.0872
◉prev-day close
$0.0919
Δ24h Δ %
-5.110%
$24h vol $
$13.33M
◐open interest $
$20.38M
%funding (1h)
0.001250%
%funding (yr)
+10.95%/yr

§1 · 24h time-series

Close price · hourly
n=25 · μ=0.0885 · σ=0.0012 · range [0.0869, 0.0904] · R²=0.046▼ FALLING -2.18%σ NORMAL 1.35%LAST 0.08720.09040.08950.08870.08780.0869μ = 0.0885max 0.0904min 0.0869dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.05μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
mark $0.0872 · 24h -5.11% · range $[0.0869, 0.0904]
OHLC candles · hourly
n=25 · up 12 · down 13 (48% up) · range [0.0840, 0.0922] · σ=0.0012 · CV=0.01 · bodyµ=40%BEARISH -5.08%CLOSE 0.0872 vs OPEN 0.0919 (-5.08%)&#9660; CLOSE 0.08720.09220.09020.08810.08610.0840μ close = 0.0885O0.092 H0.092 L0.088 C0.089 (-2.96%)O0.092 H0.092 L0.088 C0.089 (-2.96%)O0.089 H0.089 L0.088 C0.088 (-1.01%)O0.089 H0.089 L0.088 C0.088 (-1.01%)O0.088 H0.091 L0.088 C0.090 (+1.97%)O0.088 H0.091 L0.088 C0.090 (+1.97%)O0.090 H0.092 L0.090 C0.090 (+0.63%)O0.090 H0.092 L0.090 C0.090 (+0.63%)O0.090 H0.091 L0.088 C0.089 (-1.82%)O0.090 H0.091 L0.088 C0.089 (-1.82%)O0.089 H0.090 L0.088 C0.089 (+0.54%)O0.089 H0.090 L0.088 C0.089 (+0.54%)O0.089 H0.089 L0.087 C0.087 (-2.48%)O0.089 H0.089 L0.087 C0.087 (-2.48%)O0.087 H0.088 L0.086 C0.087 (-0.04%)O0.087 H0.088 L0.086 C0.087 (-0.04%)O0.087 H0.088 L0.087 C0.088 (+0.82%)O0.087 H0.088 L0.087 C0.088 (+0.82%)O0.088 H0.088 L0.087 C0.088 (-0.28%)O0.088 H0.088 L0.087 C0.088 (-0.28%)O0.087 H0.088 L0.087 C0.087 (+0.13%)O0.087 H0.088 L0.087 C0.087 (+0.13%)O0.087 H0.090 L0.087 C0.089 (+2.18%)O0.087 H0.090 L0.087 C0.089 (+2.18%)O0.089 H0.090 L0.088 C0.089 (-0.79%)O0.089 H0.090 L0.088 C0.089 (-0.79%)O0.088 H0.090 L0.088 C0.089 (+0.77%)O0.088 H0.090 L0.088 C0.089 (+0.77%)O0.089 H0.090 L0.087 C0.087 (-2.33%)O0.089 H0.090 L0.087 C0.087 (-2.33%)O0.087 H0.087 L0.086 C0.087 (-0.07%)O0.087 H0.087 L0.086 C0.087 (-0.07%)3.7%O0.087 H0.091 L0.086 C0.090 (+3.72%)O0.087 H0.091 L0.086 C0.090 (+3.72%)O0.090 H0.091 L0.089 C0.090 (+0.08%)O0.090 H0.091 L0.089 C0.090 (+0.08%)O0.090 H0.092 L0.090 C0.090 (-0.67%)O0.090 H0.092 L0.090 C0.090 (-0.67%)O0.090 H0.091 L0.089 C0.090 (+0.36%)O0.090 H0.091 L0.089 C0.090 (+0.36%)O0.090 H0.091 L0.088 C0.088 (-2.51%)O0.090 H0.091 L0.088 C0.088 (-2.51%)O0.088 H0.089 L0.086 C0.088 (+0.26%)O0.088 H0.089 L0.086 C0.088 (+0.26%)O0.088 H0.088 L0.084 C0.087 (-1.60%)O0.088 H0.088 L0.084 C0.087 (-1.60%)O0.087 H0.088 L0.086 C0.087 (+0.36%)O0.087 H0.088 L0.086 C0.087 (+0.36%)O0.087 H0.087 L0.087 C0.087 (-0.02%)O0.087 H0.087 L0.087 C0.087 (-0.02%)#1#5#9#13#17#21#25up bar (C≥O)down bar (C<O)MA(5) closeμ closedoji (~no body)biggest body
25 bars
Hourly volume (base units)
n=25 · Σ=150,806,914 · μ=6032276.6 · σ=5199281.9 · CV=0.86BURSTYcumulative energy &nearr; · 50% by h=1406,344,83412,689,66819,034,50225,379,336μ = 603227714,995,705 · 59.1% peak14,995,705 · 59.1% peak4,192,261 · 16.5% peak4,192,261 · 16.5% peak5,994,418 · 23.6% peak5,994,418 · 23.6% peak6,806,887 · 26.8% peak6,806,887 · 26.8% peak8,353,427 · 32.9% peak8,353,427 · 32.9% peak8,138,766 · 32.1% peak8,138,766 · 32.1% peak6,297,186 · 24.8% peak6,297,186 · 24.8% peak5,958,082 · 23.5% peak5,958,082 · 23.5% peak3,360,983 · 13.2% peak3,360,983 · 13.2% peak1,699,514 · 6.7% peak1,699,514 · 6.7% peak1,284,577 · 5.1% peak1,284,577 · 5.1% peak4,441,565 · 17.5% peak4,441,565 · 17.5% peak3,217,944 · 12.7% peak3,217,944 · 12.7% peak4,867,781 · 19.2% peak4,867,781 · 19.2% peak2,886,967 · 11.4% peak2,886,967 · 11.4% peak2,206,842 · 8.7% peak2,206,842 · 8.7% peak12,280,107 · 48.4% peak12,280,107 · 48.4% peak3,578,093 · 14.1% peak3,578,093 · 14.1% peak3,599,877 · 14.2% peak3,599,877 · 14.2% peak5,327,933 · 21.0% peak5,327,933 · 21.0% peak6,234,215 · 24.6% peak6,234,215 · 24.6% peak3,281,871 · 12.9% peak3,281,871 · 12.9% peak25,379,33625,379,336 · 100.0% peak25,379,336 · 100.0% peak6,410,161 · 25.3% peak6,410,161 · 25.3% peak12,416 · 0.0% peak12,416 · 0.0% peak50%#1#5#9#13#17#21#25#1 peak#2-3> μactivequietμ linecum energy
Σ vol 150806914 · peak 25379336 · CV 0.86

§2 · Returns distribution (log-returns)

Histogram of rₜ = ln(pₜ/pₜ₋₁)
n=24 · 12 bins · μ=-0.0008 · σ=0.0131 · skew=0.35 (symmetric) · kurt=0.16 (mesokurtic)54310 3-214.52bpbin -214.52bp · n=3 · 60.0% peakbin -214.52bp · n=3 · 60.0% peak 2-165.03bpbin -165.03bp · n=2 · 40.0% peakbin -165.03bp · n=2 · 40.0% peak 1-115.53bpbin -115.53bp · n=1 · 20.0% peakbin -115.53bp · n=1 · 20.0% peak 2-66.03bpbin -66.03bp · n=2 · 40.0% peakbin -66.03bp · n=2 · 40.0% peak 5-16.53bpbin -16.53bp · n=5 · 100.0% peakbin -16.53bp · n=5 · 100.0% peak 532.97bpbin 32.97bp · n=5 · 100.0% peakbin 32.97bp · n=5 · 100.0% peak 382.47bpbin 82.47bp · n=3 · 60.0% peakbin 82.47bp · n=3 · 60.0% peak131.97bp 2181.47bpbin 181.47bp · n=2 · 40.0% peakbin 181.47bp · n=2 · 40.0% peak230.97bp280.47bp 1329.97bpbin 329.97bp · n=1 · 20.0% peakbin 329.97bp · n=1 · 20.0% peakμΔ < 0 · loss barsΔ ≈ 0 · flatΔ > 0 · gain barsN(μ,σ²) referenceμ line · ±σ band shaded
n=24 · positive 11 · negative 13
Q-Q plot · standardised rₜ vs N(0,1)
n=24 · skew=0.37 · kurt=0.29 · near 20 / mid 4 / far 0 · OLS slope=1.00 intercept=-0.00MATCHES NORMAL · WELL-BEHAVEDUPPER TAIL NORMALLOWER TAIL NORMAL-3σ-3σ-2σ-2σ-1σ-1σ+0σ+0σ+1σ+1σ+2σ+2σ+3σ+3σsample ↓marginal: sample bars + theoretical N(0,1) curve →theoretical Φ⁻¹(p) →↑ sample z-quantile|Δ| < 0.3σ · on the line|Δ| < 1σ · moderate|Δ| ≥ 1σ · outliery = x refOLS fit

§3 · Spot quote

Mark price
$0.0872
Mid price
$0.0872
24h change
-5.11%
Mark–mid spread
0.00 bps
Prev-day close
$0.0919

§4 · Sample moments (prices)

Descriptive statistics · 5-number summary · shape diagnostics
SAMPLE MOMENTS · N=25PLATYKURTIC · THIN TAILS (G₂=-1.50)
μ MEAN0.0885$95% CI: [0.0880$, 0.0889$]
σ STD DEV0.0012$σ² = 0.014×10⁻⁴ · CV = 1.35%
med MEDIAN0.0882$Q₁ 0.0872$ · Q₃ 0.0893$
FIVE-NUMBER SUMMARY · BOX PLOTrange 0.0035$ · IQR 0.0021$ (1.349σ→0.0016$)
min 0.0869$Q₁ 0.0872$med 0.0882$Q₃ 0.0893$max 0.0904$μ
SKEWNESS · G₁0.228approximately symmetric
−3−10+1+3
EXCESS KURTOSIS · G₂-1.503platykurtic · thin tails
−30+2+4+6
μ ↔ medianμ > med · right-tailed|μ−med| / σ = 0.23
σ × 1.349 ↔ IQRdiverges from normalratio = 0.78
range ↔ σconcentrated (range < 4σ)range / σ = 2.96
μ = mean · σ = standard deviation · CV = coefficient of variation. Skew (G₁): >0 right-skewed. Kurt (G₂, excess): >0 leptokurtic. 95% CI = μ ± 1.96·SE.

§5 · Returns analytics (log-returns)

Risk-adjusted performance · log-returns
RETURNS · RISK-ADJUSTEDUNPROFITABLE · SR=-6.01
μᵣ MEAN / h-0.091929%drift is negative per h · |μ|/σ = 0.064
σᵣ STD / h1.430905%σ²ᵣ = 2.047×10⁻⁴ · CV = 15.57×
σ ANNUALISED133.93%/yrscaled by √8760 (hourly→yearly) · 1.431%/h base
RISK-ADJUSTED PERFORMANCEhigher = better edge per unit risk
SHARPE (annualised)-6.01negative edge
-2-10+1+2+3+4
SORTINO (annualised)-6.25downside drag
-2-10+1+2+3+4
CALMAR (return / max-DD)-100.00drawdown overwhelms returns
-20+2+4+6
RETURN-DISTRIBUTION SHAPE|skew| < 0.5 ≈ symmetric · |kurt| < 1 ≈ mesokurtic
SKEWNESS · G₁0.40approximately symmetric
-3-10+1+3
EXCESS KURTOSIS · G₂0.66mesokurtic · normal-like tails
-30+2+4+6
SORTINO vs SHARPEdownside vol < total vol · favourableSoR / SR = 1.04
CALMAR · DD CONTROLdrawdown > returns · adverseCR = -100.00
EXPECTED EDGE-805.30%/yr driftμ × 8760 = annualised expectation
rₜ = ln(pₜ/pₜ₋₁). σ × √8760 = annualised. Sharpe = μ/σ scaled; Sortino uses downside-only vol; Calmar = annual return / max drawdown.

§6 · Risk metrics

Tail risk + drawdown · downside diagnostics
TAIL & DRAWDOWN RISKHIGH · 95% VaR 2.35%
VaR₉₅ (h)2.350%5% prob of larger adverse h move
VaR₉₉ (h)2.388%1% prob · extreme-tail threshold
ES₉₅ (CVaR)2.382%expected loss given 5% tail event
MAX DRAWDOWN3.90%19h from peak to trough
TAIL-RISK LADDER (h losses)larger negative = worse · markers show severity
0 · no lossVaR₉₅−2.350%VaR₉₉−2.388%ES₉₅−2.382%worst tail ←→ zero loss
MAX DRAWDOWN PROFILEmoderate drawdown · 19h duration
PEAK9.04$
−3.90% drawdown over 19h
8.69$TROUGH
ES / VaR · TAIL THICKNESSthin tails · ES ≈ VaR|ES₉₅| / |VaR₉₅| = 1.01× (normal ≈ 1.25)
VaR₉₉ / VaR₉₅ · CONCENTRATIONuniform tailratio = 1.02× (normal ≈ 1.41)
DRAWDOWN · CAPITAL DURATIONmoderate drawdownrecovery needed: +4.05% (compounding)
VaR = quantile loss · ES (CVaR) = expected loss conditional on tail · DD = peak-to-trough decline. Under normality ES₉₅/VaR₉₅ ≈ 1.25; ratio > 1.5 ⇒ fat-tail regime.

§7 · Technicals

RSI(14)
43.8 · neutral
Bollinger %B
0.282 · within band
Bollinger upper
$0.0906
Bollinger MA
$0.0883
Bollinger lower
$0.0859

§8 · Time-series structure

Regime & autocorrelation diagnostics
TIME-SERIES STRUCTUREREGIME: MEAN-REVERTING · ρ(1) -0.24 + ADF rejected
ρ(1) AUTOCORR-0.237within white-noise band
ρ(2) AUTOCORR-0.101lag-2 not significant
H · HURST EXPONENT0.934strongly persistent
OLS TREND · t-STAT-1.051fails 5% test
HURST EXPONENT [0, 1]strongly persistent · H = 0.934
H = 0.934STRONGLY PERSISTENT
0
anti-persistent0.45
mean-reverting0.5
random walk0.55
persistent1
strongly trending
AUTOCORRELATION FUNCTION · ρ(k) for k=1..5WHITE NOISE · no significant lags
k=1-0.237k=2-0.101k=3+0.037k=4-0.342k=5+0.1420+1−1+0.41−0.41+ momentum (ρ > +0.41)− reversal (ρ < −0.41)noise (within band)±2/√n threshold
OLS TREND · t-STAT · [-5, +5]NOT SIGNIFICANT (|t|=1.05)
−5 reject−1.960 retain H₀+1.96+5 reject
REGIME CLASSIFICATIONMEAN-REVERTING · ρ(1) -0.24 + ADF rejectedfrom Hurst + ρ(1) joint diagnosis
PREDICTABILITY · score 1.00very high · strong structure|ρ(1)| + 2·|H − 0.5| heuristic
TREND SIGNIFICANCENOT SIGNIFICANT (|t|=1.05)α=0.05 critical |t|=1.96 · α=0.01 |t|=2.58
ρ(k) = lag-k sample autocorrelation · H = R/S Hurst exponent · t = OLS-trend t-statistic. Significance bands at ±2/√n approximate the 95% white-noise envelope. α=0.05 critical |t|=1.96; α=0.01 |t|=2.58.

§9 · Microstructure

24h volume (USD)
$13.33M
Open interest (USD)
$20.38M
Vol / OI (turnover)
0.65x
1h funding
0.001250%
Funding (annualised)
+10.95%/yr

§10 · Position sizing

Continuous Kelly (μ/σ²)
-4.490× leverage · optimal log-utility leverage
Half-Kelly
-2.245× · industry-standard conservative
Quarter-Kelly
-1.122×

§11 · Hourly return heatmap

24-hour signed Δln-r grid · green = up · red = down
HOURLY RETURN HEATMAP · n=24 bars · best 3.55% · worst -2.39% · typical |Δ| 1.04%MILD BEARISH -2.21%BEST+3.55%08hWORST-2.39%12hTYPICAL |Δ|1.04%mean absoluteCUMULATIVE-2.21%Σ signed ΔSTREAK↘ 1down-runASIA · 00-08 UTCμ +0.00% · Σ +0.04%EUROPE · 08-16 UTCμ +0.02% · Σ +0.17%US · 16-24 UTCμ -0.30% · Σ -2.41%CUMULATIVE Δ PATH · final -2.21%+1.37%-2.60%-1.19% · 17h-1.19% · 17h-1.19%17h1.92% · 18h1.92% · 18h1.92%18h0.65% · 19h0.65% · 19h0.65%19h-1.81% · 20h-1.81% · 20h-1.81%20h0.51% · 21h0.51% · 21h0.51%21h-2.37% · 22h-2.37% · 22h-2.37%22h-0.10% · 23h-0.10% · 23h-0.10%23h0.85% · 00h0.85% · 00h0.85%00h-0.34% · 01h-0.34% · 01h-0.34%01h-0.02% · 02h-0.02% · 02h-0.02%02h2.04% · 03h2.04% · 03h2.04%03h-0.76% · 04h-0.76% · 04h-0.76%04h0.60% · 05h0.60% · 05h0.60%05h-2.23% · 06h-2.23% · 06h-2.23%06h-0.10% · 07h-0.10% · 07h-0.10%07h3.55% · 08h3.55% · 08h3.55%08h★ BEST0.11% · 09h0.11% · 09h0.11%09h-0.82% · 10h-0.82% · 10h-0.82%10h0.49% · 11h0.49% · 11h0.49%11h-2.39% · 12h-2.39% · 12h-2.39%12h▼ WORST0.31% · 13h0.31% · 13h0.31%13h-1.49% · 14h-1.49% · 14h-1.49%14h0.40% · 15h0.40% · 15h0.40%15h-0.01% · 16h-0.01% · 16h-0.01%16hTIME PATTERNEurope-led (+0.17%)RUNSup max 2 · down max 2BREADTH46% up · 54% down
11 up bars · 13 down · best 3.55% · worst -2.39% · typical |Δ| 1.044%

§12 · Equity curve & underwater drawdown

Cumulative compounded return + running peak-to-trough
EQUITY & DRAWDOWN ANALYSIS · n=25 barsLOSS WITH MODERATE DD (-2.41%)FINAL-2.41%MAX DD-4.10%RECOVERYONGOING · 21 barsMAX RUN-UP+1.36%UNDERWATER22/25 (88%)STREAK↘ 1EQUITY CURVE · end 0.9759 · peak 1.0136 · range [0.9720, 1.0136]1.01360.9720break-even = 1★ PEAK 1.0136UNDERWATER DRAWDOWN · max -4.10% · moderate0%-4.10%▼ TROUGH -4.10%TOP DRAWDOWN PERIODS · 2 total#1 -4.10%bar 5-25 · 21 bars · ONGOING#2 -1.19%bar 2-2 · 1 bars · recoveredDD SEVERITYmoderate (max -4.10%)RECOVERYongoing · 21 barsTIME UNDER WATER88% of session · 22/25 bars
final equity 0.9759 (-2.41%) · max DD -4.10% · time-under-water 22/25 bars

§13 · Rolling-window statistics (w = 6 bars)

Rolling annualised Sharpe ratio · green positive · red negative
n=19 · +9 / −10 (47% positive) · μ=-7.07 · σ=25.08MIXED EDGELAST -34.78 (-1.10σ vs μ)51.5225.760.00-25.76-51.52μ = -7.07-21.57-21.57-11.69-11.69-25.86-25.86-39.67-39.67-20.36-20.360.640.6425.6825.6836.9736.97-7.79-7.79-5.23-5.2323.4923.499.509.508.988.988.138.136.666.669.959.95-51.52-51.52-45.83-45.83-34.78-34.78v > 0 · positivev < 0 · negativeμ mean lineμ ± σ bandlatest bar (outlined)
latest -34.779 · range [-51.52, 36.97] · μ -7.070 · positive Sharpe = excess-return-per-risk earned by buying-and-holding through this window
Rolling annualised volatility (%)
n=19 · μ=140.9532 · σ=33.3777 · range [93.5964, 192.1499] · R²=0.028▼ FALLING -27.55%σ EXTREME 23.68%LAST 112.5776192.1499167.5115142.8731118.234793.5964μ = 140.9532max 192.1499min 93.5964dataMA(3)OLS R²=0.03μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
latest 112.58% · range [93.60%, 192.15%] · μ 140.95% · σ̂ scaled to annualised (×√8760)
Rolling lag-1 autocorrelation ρ(1)
n=19 · +0 / −19 (0% positive) · μ=-0.320 · σ=0.243MEAN-REVERSIONLAST -0.636 (-1.30σ vs μ)0.7800.3900.000-0.390-0.780μ = -0.320-0.290-0.290-0.188-0.188-0.499-0.499-0.383-0.383-0.293-0.293-0.015-0.015-0.536-0.536-0.570-0.570-0.314-0.314-0.318-0.318-0.117-0.117-0.105-0.105-0.078-0.078-0.039-0.039-0.111-0.111-0.080-0.080-0.730-0.730-0.780-0.780-0.636-0.636v > 0 · positivev < 0 · negativeμ mean lineμ ± σ bandlatest bar (outlined)
latest -0.636 · |ρ| > 0.3 ⇒ regime with persistence (ρ > 0) or reversal (ρ < 0) · |ρ| ≤ 0.1 = consistent with random walk

§14 · Hypothesis tests (α = 0.05)

Formal inference at 5% significance
1 of 6 REJECT · mixed evidence1 reject·5 pass·α = 0.05
𝒩

Jarque-Bera

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Δln-r ~ Normal(μ, σ²)

STATISTIC
1.0738
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.5846
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainednormality not rejected
ρ

Ljung-Box(h=5)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: No serial autocorrelation up to lag 5

STATISTIC
6.1615
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.2902
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedconsistent with white noise
Ψ

Dickey-Fuller (τ_μ)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: p has a unit root (non-stationary)

STATISTIC
-2.8457
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.0525
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedrandom-walk behaviour (crit ≈ -2.86)
±

Wald-Wolfowitz runs

REJECT H₀*

H₀: Sign sequence of Δ is random

STATISTIC
2.5579
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.0105
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p < α · rejection zonenon-random sign pattern (19 runs)
χ

KPSS (μ stationarity)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: p IS level-stationary

STATISTIC
0.1142
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.5000
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedstationary not rejected (crit 0.463)
χ

Variance ratio q=3

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Δln-r is a random walk · VR = 1

STATISTIC
-1.1280
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.2593
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedVR 0.657 ≈ 1 (RW behaviour)
Each row states an explicit null H₀, the test statistic, an approximated p-value, and the decision. REJECT means evidence against H₀. KPSS complements ADF (rejecting both ⇒ ambiguous; rejecting one ⇒ clean verdict).

§15 · Spectral analysis (DFT periodogram)

Power spectrum of Δln-r · ‖X̂(k)‖²/n
n=12 bins · noise floor μ=2.10e-4 · top T=2.67h (38.1%) · top-3 cover 64.7%1 SIGNIFICANT CYCLEcumulative energy ↗ (1 bin above 2× noise)9.6e-47.2e-44.8e-42.4e-40.0e+0μ noise floor2× noise (significance)period 24.0 · power 4.73e-5 · 1.9% energyperiod 24.0 · power 4.73e-5 · 1.9% energyperiod 12.0 · power 5.78e-5 · 2.3% energyperiod 12.0 · power 5.78e-5 · 2.3% energyperiod 8.0 · power 3.34e-4 · 13.3% energyperiod 8.0 · power 3.34e-4 · 13.3% energyperiod 6.0 · power 1.11e-4 · 4.4% energyperiod 6.0 · power 1.11e-4 · 4.4% energyperiod 4.8 · power 2.25e-4 · 8.9% energyperiod 4.8 · power 2.25e-4 · 8.9% energyperiod 4.0 · power 1.29e-4 · 5.1% energyperiod 4.0 · power 1.29e-4 · 5.1% energyperiod 3.4 · power 1.49e-4 · 5.9% energyperiod 3.4 · power 1.49e-4 · 5.9% energyperiod 3.0 · power 7.32e-5 · 2.9% energyperiod 3.0 · power 7.32e-5 · 2.9% energyperiod 2.7 · power 9.62e-4 · 38.1% energyperiod 2.7 · power 9.62e-4 · 38.1% energyperiod 2.4 · power 9.42e-5 · 3.7% energyperiod 2.4 · power 9.42e-5 · 3.7% energyperiod 2.2 · power 3.65e-6 · 0.1% energyperiod 2.2 · power 3.65e-6 · 0.1% energyperiod 2.0 · power 3.35e-4 · 13.3% energyperiod 2.0 · power 3.35e-4 · 13.3% energy50% by T=2.7h#1 dominantT=2.67h#2T=2.00h#3T=8.00hT=2hT=3hT=4hT=6hT=8hT=12hT=16hT=24h← shorter cycle (high freq · Nyquist=½) · period T (bars per cycle) · longer cycle (low freq · 1/n) →#1 dominant#2 peak#3 peak> 2× noisenoiseμ floor2μ sig.cum energy
dominant period ≈ 2.67h (freq 0.375) · concentrates 38.1% of total energy · Σ|X̂|²/n = 2.522e-3

▸ Depth section using sovereign-store price series (5000 bars · effective 5257847 bars/year) — annualisation reflects native polling cadence, not upstream timeframes.

§16 · NOSTRADAMUS continuous quant — perp leverage & bootstrap MC

Continuous-price extension of the prediction-market quant module. Kelly growth on observed returns (Merton μ/σ² parametric vs argmax empirical), Monte-Carlo equity fan bootstrapped from the historical return distribution at quarter-Kelly leverage, and an annualized return decomposition. Sweep parameters in the simulator.

§17 · Continuous Kelly

Continuous-Kelly growth · g(f) = E[ln(1 + f·r)]
f★ empirical 4.57× · g(f★) 0.001%/barparametric μ/σ² 4.49× · μ 0.000% · σ 0.07%
μ per barmean
0.000%
σ per barvol
0.07%
Empirical f★argmax g(f)
4.57×
from observed distribution
Parametric f★μ/σ²
4.49×
Merton continuous-time
Half-Kelly½ f★
2.28×
~⅔ of full growth, half the variance
Quarter-Kelly¼ f★
1.14×
industry default — survives model error
0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.0×1.6×3.2×4.8×6.4×8.0×f★ empμ/σ²leverage fraction fexpected log-growth per bar
g(f) empiricalf★ argmaxparametric f★
Maximum expected log-growth from leveraging the historical return distribution. Empirical f★ argmaxes the sample expectation; parametric f★ = μ/σ² is Merton's continuous-time optimum.

§18 · MC equity fan

Bootstrapped equity fan at 1.12× leverage
Median CAGR/bar 0.000% · annualized Sharpe 8.52400 paths × 720 bars · leverage 1.12× · bootstrap from 4999 observed returns
Sharpe / barμ/σ
0.004
annualized 8.52
μ per barafter L
0.000%
σ per barafter L
0.08%
VaR 95%5%
0.10%
per-bar worst-case
CVaR 95%ES
0.16%
mean tail loss
Max DD (median)MDD
-0.2%
0.92×0.95×0.99×1.02×1.06×1.09×0120240360480600720startbar #equity multiple
median25/75 band5/95 band
Median path with 25/75 and 5/95 percentile bands across 400 simulated careers. Bars resample with replacement from the observed return distribution — preserves fat tails the parametric model misses.

§19 · Annualized breakdown

Annualized return components
APR 1000% · APY 1000% · Sharpe 7.31σ ann 163% · Sortino 7.95 · n 4999 · ⚠ capped (n=4999 too small to support 8760-bar projection)
0%240%480%720%960%1200%1000.0%APR (simple)1000.0%APY (compound)163.1%Ann. vol σ731.5%Sharpe (ann)794.9%Sortino (ann)
Simple APR vs compounded APY · annualized volatility · risk-adjusted Sharpe and Sortino. All scaled by √(periods/yr).

§20 · GARCH(1,1) volatility band

GARCH(1,1) · conditional vol envelope (±2σ)
GARCH persistence α+β = 0.980· σ̂ₜ = 1.000% · long-run σ = 2.236%
0.0810.0840.0870.0900.0930.096t-4999t-4166t-3333t-2500t-1666t-833t-0

Persistence near 1 ⇒ vol clusters strongly (slow mean reversion). Long-run σ is the unconditional target the conditional vol orbits. The ±2σ band reflects time-varying scale, unlike a flat-vol band.

Time-varying volatility band fitted to the price series. Persistence α+β > 0.98 means vol shocks decay slowly — recent moves stay relevant.

§∞ · Provenance & attestation

Upstream
api.hyperliquid.xyz
Snapshot fetched
2026-06-14 16:00:12 UTC
Snapshot age
5.2s
History points
25 hourly closes
Page rendered
2026-06-14 16:00:13 UTC
Storage policy
no persistence — fetched on every request
SHA-256 attestation
afa6cff1efc3ac228803a58a17cd76ddbd373d383c53aca905a9b6601cd5209f · deterministic hash of the source snapshot — proves this page was rendered from this exact data
Open data licence
CC0 / public domain · free to mirror, syndicate, analyse

§∞-2 · Related markets · explore more

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Also see: /arb opportunities · RSS feed

Market depth

▸ live order book · Hyperliquid perp
Depth within 1bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Depth within 5bp
$4.11K
bid $606 · ask $3.51K
Depth within 10bp
$22.76K
bid $8.17K · ask $14.60K
Depth within 50bp
$56.00K
bid $31.76K · ask $24.24K
Mid price
0.087207
(best bid + best ask) / 2
Spread
3.9bp
(bestAsk − bestBid) / mid
Imbalance (whole book)
+0.135
bid-heavy
Imbalance (top-5)
-0.245
ask-heavy top-of-book

Slippage scenarios

▸ live book walk · Hyperliquid perp

Simulating a market order at three notionals against the live book. Slippage = avg execution price vs. mid, in basis points. Worst fill = price of the deepest level touched. Live JSON: /api/asset/hl-XPL/slippage?size=10000&side=buy

SideNotionalAvg fillSlippageWorst fillLevelsStatus
BUY$1.00K0.0872302.64bp0.0872344FILLED
BUY$10.00K0.0872535.30bp0.08727810FILLED
BUY$100.00K0.0872818.53bp0.08731720PARTIAL
SELL$1.00K0.0871783.38bp0.0871633FILLED
SELL$10.00K0.0871387.88bp0.08710612FILLED
SELL$100.00K0.08710511.70bp0.08706620PARTIAL

Funding carry

▸ LONGS PAY · shorts receive
Hourly funding
+1.250e-5
0.00125% / hr
Annualised APR
10.958%
hourly · 24 · 365.25
Long: days to 1% carry
33.3d
longs pay
Short: days to 1% carry
33.3d
shorts receive
SideDirectionAnnualised carryDays → 1%Days → 10%
LONGPAY-10.958%33.3d333.3d
SHORTRECEIVE10.958%33.3d333.3d

/api/asset/hl-XPL/carry · same metrics, JSON

Volume profile

▸ real volume · Hyperliquid candlesstep $ 1 · 25 records
Price binBarsVolumeDistribution
$0.000000–$1.0000★25$150.81M

★ POC = Point of Control (highest-volume bin). Live JSON: /api/asset/hl-XPL/volprofile?priceStep=1

Order flow

▸ ASK-LEAN · -0.050 · Hyperliquid candles
Bars (buy / sell)
11 / 13
1 unclassified
Buy weight
$64.49M
real volume
Sell weight
$71.32M
real volume
Net delta
$6.83M
sellers net
Imbalance
-5.03%
(buy − sell) / (buy + sell)
Toxicity (VPIN)
5.0%
two-sided / balanced
Impact (|Δp|/vol)
—
needs real volume

Sparkline = cumulative delta over the 25-record window./api/asset/hl-XPL/flow?rollingWindow=30

Cascade clusters

▸ DOWN · 6 found · deepest 3.82% · Hyperliquid candles

Price-only proxy for forced-unwind clusters. No exchange liquidation feed is wired — read each row as a candidate event, not a confirmed liquidation.

#WindowDurationPeak → TroughDrawdownBars
#12026-06-14 12:00:00Z4.0h0.090345→0.0868903.824%5
#22026-06-13 20:00:00Z4.0h0.090413→0.0870643.704%5
#32026-06-14 06:00:00Z1.0h0.089299→0.0870982.465%2

/api/asset/hl-XPL/cascades?windowMs=10800000&minDrawdownPct=0.005 · full list + parameters in JSON

Risk metrics

▸ sovereign store · 5,000 barsperiods/year ≈ 5.26M
Realized vol (annualised)
163.06%
σ per bar = 0.000711
Mean return (annualised)
1192.81%
μ per bar = 0.000002
Sharpe (rf=0)
7.31
annualised; risk-free assumed zero
Max drawdown
8.50%
peak 0.09 → trough 0.08 over 2450 bars

/api/asset/hl-XPL/risk · same metrics, JSON