HYPERLIQUID · PERPETUAL FUTURES

XLM

XLM-USD perpetual · 24/7 trading on Hyperliquid

▸ Advanced metrics · M2M bundle

hyperliquid · perp-xlm · fresh · feed 2s old
24h sparkline · 60 pts▼ -3.48%
realized vol (ann.)
46.74%
max drawdown
1.27%
sharpe
-27.37
ulcer index
0.77%
RMS drawdown
pain index
0.66%
mean drawdown
mod. VaR 95%
0.03%
Cornish-Fisher
martin ratio
-1668.56
ret / ulcer
CDaR 95%
1.20%
cond. drawdown
gain/pain
0.96
Σgain / Σ|loss|
sterling
-1066.40
ret / CDaR
omega (θ=0)
0.96
upside/downside
roll spread
0.0 bps
implied (price-only)
bars used
2000
store
spread
—
24h Δ
-3.48%
flow lean
—
carry
shorts_pay
-51.95%
signalNEUTRALconfidence 32%
  • 24h change -3.48%
  • funding: shorts pay — perp longs get paid to wait
  • mark cheap vs HL oracle by 9.3bps — long bias
Same bundle via M2M API: /api/m2m/hl-XLM/bundle · venue execution: hyperliquid →
LIVEPOLL0SRCFRESH2.1s⏱--:--:-- UTC8NEXT8.0sUP0s--:--HIST0/30
▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC FRESH·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC FRESH·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·
MARK · live
$0.182
24h Δ · live
-3.48%
24h vol · live
$1.5M
XLM · live 24h price
n=25 · μ=0.1862 · σ=0.0020 · range [0.1823, 0.1910] · R²=0.742▼ FALLING -3.61%σ NORMAL 1.09%LAST 0.18230.19100.18880.18670.18450.1823μ = 0.1862max 0.1910min 0.1823dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.74μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxminlive endpoint
25 closes · last $0.18
Funding direction · live
Long fee 49.6%Short fee 50.4%SHORT FEE50.4%
Σ = 0.0%
Σ-sides total = 0.01% (99.99pp arb gap)
H(p) entropy = 1.000 / 1.00 bits (100%) · max uncertainty (~50/50)
Long fee
49.6%▬ +0.00pp
Short fee
50.4%▬ +0.00pp
1h funding -0.005931% · shorts pay
Hourly contract volume · live
n=25 · Σ=8,126,025 · μ=325041.0 · σ=189909.4 · CV=0.58STEADY FLOWcumulative energy ↗ · 50% by h=120193,877387,754581,631775,508μ = 325041775,50850%h1h5h9h13h17h21h25#1 peak#2-3> μactivequietμ linecum energy
peak 775508 contracts
Live numerics · pulse on poll
LIVE NUMERICS9 metrics·POLL 0
⏱snapshot age
2.1s
$mark $
$0.1825
$mid $
$0.1825
◉prev-day close
$0.1891
Δ24h Δ %
-3.480%
$24h vol $
$1.50M
◐open interest $
$9.50M
%funding (1h)
-0.005931%
%funding (yr)
-51.95%/yr

§1 · 24h time-series

Close price · hourly
n=25 · μ=0.1862 · σ=0.0020 · range [0.1823, 0.1910] · R²=0.742▼ FALLING -3.61%σ NORMAL 1.09%LAST 0.18230.19100.18880.18670.18450.1823μ = 0.1862max 0.1910min 0.1823dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.74μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
mark $0.1825 · 24h -3.48% · range $[0.1823, 0.1910]
OHLC candles · hourly
n=25 · up 12 · down 13 (48% up) · range [0.1820, 0.1914] · σ=0.0020 · CV=0.01 · bodyµ=44%BEARISH -3.24%CLOSE 0.1823 vs OPEN 0.1885 (-3.24%)&#9660; CLOSE 0.18230.19140.18910.18670.18440.1820μ close = 0.1862O0.188 H0.189 L0.188 C0.189 (+0.38%)O0.188 H0.189 L0.188 C0.189 (+0.38%)O0.189 H0.191 L0.189 C0.191 (+1.00%)O0.189 H0.191 L0.189 C0.191 (+1.00%)-1.4%O0.191 H0.191 L0.188 C0.189 (-1.45%)O0.191 H0.191 L0.188 C0.189 (-1.45%)O0.189 H0.189 L0.186 C0.186 (-1.21%)O0.189 H0.189 L0.186 C0.186 (-1.21%)O0.186 H0.187 L0.186 C0.187 (+0.19%)O0.186 H0.187 L0.186 C0.187 (+0.19%)O0.187 H0.187 L0.186 C0.187 (-0.12%)O0.187 H0.187 L0.186 C0.187 (-0.12%)O0.187 H0.187 L0.186 C0.187 (+0.13%)O0.187 H0.187 L0.186 C0.187 (+0.13%)O0.187 H0.189 L0.186 C0.188 (+0.65%)O0.187 H0.189 L0.186 C0.188 (+0.65%)O0.188 H0.188 L0.187 C0.187 (-0.73%)O0.188 H0.188 L0.187 C0.187 (-0.73%)O0.187 H0.187 L0.186 C0.187 (+0.04%)O0.187 H0.187 L0.186 C0.187 (+0.04%)O0.187 H0.187 L0.186 C0.187 (-0.06%)O0.187 H0.187 L0.186 C0.187 (-0.06%)O0.187 H0.189 L0.186 C0.188 (+0.65%)O0.187 H0.189 L0.186 C0.188 (+0.65%)O0.188 H0.189 L0.186 C0.186 (-0.66%)O0.188 H0.189 L0.186 C0.186 (-0.66%)O0.186 H0.187 L0.185 C0.186 (-0.42%)O0.186 H0.187 L0.185 C0.186 (-0.42%)O0.186 H0.186 L0.185 C0.185 (-0.08%)O0.186 H0.186 L0.185 C0.185 (-0.08%)O0.185 H0.186 L0.185 C0.186 (+0.26%)O0.185 H0.186 L0.185 C0.186 (+0.26%)O0.186 H0.187 L0.186 C0.186 (+0.31%)O0.186 H0.187 L0.186 C0.186 (+0.31%)O0.186 H0.187 L0.186 C0.186 (+0.03%)O0.186 H0.187 L0.186 C0.186 (+0.03%)O0.187 H0.187 L0.186 C0.186 (-0.10%)O0.187 H0.187 L0.186 C0.186 (-0.10%)O0.186 H0.187 L0.185 C0.185 (-0.49%)O0.186 H0.187 L0.185 C0.185 (-0.49%)O0.185 H0.185 L0.183 C0.184 (-0.87%)O0.185 H0.185 L0.183 C0.184 (-0.87%)O0.183 H0.184 L0.183 C0.184 (+0.13%)O0.183 H0.184 L0.183 C0.184 (+0.13%)O0.184 H0.184 L0.182 C0.183 (-0.58%)O0.184 H0.184 L0.182 C0.183 (-0.58%)O0.183 H0.183 L0.182 C0.183 (+0.09%)O0.183 H0.183 L0.182 C0.183 (+0.09%)O0.183 H0.183 L0.182 C0.182 (-0.36%)O0.183 H0.183 L0.182 C0.182 (-0.36%)#1#5#9#13#17#21#25up bar (C≥O)down bar (C<O)MA(5) closeμ closedoji (~no body)biggest body
25 bars
Hourly volume (base units)
n=25 · Σ=8,126,025 · μ=325041.0 · σ=189909.4 · CV=0.58STEADY FLOWcumulative energy &nearr; · 50% by h=120193,877387,754581,631775,508μ = 325041121,023 · 15.6% peak121,023 · 15.6% peak387,226 · 49.9% peak387,226 · 49.9% peak577,228 · 74.4% peak577,228 · 74.4% peak406,806 · 52.5% peak406,806 · 52.5% peak136,191 · 17.6% peak136,191 · 17.6% peak522,403 · 67.4% peak522,403 · 67.4% peak594,748 · 76.7% peak594,748 · 76.7% peak304,217 · 39.2% peak304,217 · 39.2% peak217,141 · 28.0% peak217,141 · 28.0% peak209,384 · 27.0% peak209,384 · 27.0% peak528,912 · 68.2% peak528,912 · 68.2% peak114,402 · 14.8% peak114,402 · 14.8% peak113,193 · 14.6% peak113,193 · 14.6% peak172,338 · 22.2% peak172,338 · 22.2% peak87,189 · 11.2% peak87,189 · 11.2% peak96,130 · 12.4% peak96,130 · 12.4% peak171,052 · 22.1% peak171,052 · 22.1% peak379,278 · 48.9% peak379,278 · 48.9% peak426,681 · 55.0% peak426,681 · 55.0% peak312,984 · 40.4% peak312,984 · 40.4% peak420,925 · 54.3% peak420,925 · 54.3% peak411,184 · 53.0% peak411,184 · 53.0% peak775,508775,508 · 100.0% peak775,508 · 100.0% peak489,009 · 63.1% peak489,009 · 63.1% peak150,873 · 19.5% peak150,873 · 19.5% peak50%#1#5#9#13#17#21#25#1 peak#2-3> μactivequietμ linecum energy
Σ vol 8126025 · peak 775508 · CV 0.58

§2 · Returns distribution (log-returns)

Histogram of rₜ = ln(pₜ/pₜ₋₁)
n=24 · 12 bins · μ=-0.0015 · σ=0.0054 · skew=-0.34 (symmetric) · kurt=-0.46 (mesokurtic)75420 2-120.17bpbin -120.17bp · n=2 · 28.6% peakbin -120.17bp · n=2 · 28.6% peak 1-101.26bpbin -101.26bp · n=1 · 14.3% peakbin -101.26bp · n=1 · 14.3% peak 1-82.34bpbin -82.34bp · n=1 · 14.3% peakbin -82.34bp · n=1 · 14.3% peak 2-63.43bpbin -63.43bp · n=2 · 28.6% peakbin -63.43bp · n=2 · 28.6% peak 2-44.52bpbin -44.52bp · n=2 · 28.6% peakbin -44.52bp · n=2 · 28.6% peak 1-25.61bpbin -25.61bp · n=1 · 14.3% peakbin -25.61bp · n=1 · 14.3% peak 4-6.69bpbin -6.69bp · n=4 · 57.1% peakbin -6.69bp · n=4 · 57.1% peak 712.22bpbin 12.22bp · n=7 · 100.0% peakbin 12.22bp · n=7 · 100.0% peak 131.13bpbin 31.13bp · n=1 · 14.3% peakbin 31.13bp · n=1 · 14.3% peak 150.04bpbin 50.04bp · n=1 · 14.3% peakbin 50.04bp · n=1 · 14.3% peak 168.96bpbin 68.96bp · n=1 · 14.3% peakbin 68.96bp · n=1 · 14.3% peak 187.87bpbin 87.87bp · n=1 · 14.3% peakbin 87.87bp · n=1 · 14.3% peakμΔ < 0 · loss barsΔ ≈ 0 · flatΔ > 0 · gain barsN(μ,σ²) referenceμ line · ±σ band shaded
n=24 · positive 13 · negative 11
Q-Q plot · standardised rₜ vs N(0,1)
n=24 · skew=-0.32 · kurt=-0.32 · near 19 / mid 5 / far 0 · OLS slope=1.01 intercept=-0.00MATCHES NORMAL · WELL-BEHAVEDUPPER TAIL NORMALMILDLY HEAVY LOWER-3σ-3σ-2σ-2σ-1σ-1σ+0σ+0σ+1σ+1σ+2σ+2σ+3σ+3σsample ↓marginal: sample bars + theoretical N(0,1) curve →theoretical Φ⁻¹(p) →↑ sample z-quantile|Δ| < 0.3σ · on the line|Δ| < 1σ · moderate|Δ| ≥ 1σ · outliery = x refOLS fit

§3 · Spot quote

Mark price
$0.1825
Mid price
$0.1825
24h change
-3.48%
Mark–mid spread
0.00 bps
Prev-day close
$0.1891

§4 · Sample moments (prices)

Descriptive statistics · 5-number summary · shape diagnostics
SAMPLE MOMENTS · N=25APPROXIMATELY NORMAL · WELL-BEHAVED
μ MEAN0.1862$95% CI: [0.1854$, 0.1870$]
σ STD DEV0.0020$σ² = 0.041×10⁻⁴ · CV = 1.09%
med MEDIAN0.1864$Q₁ 0.1855$ · Q₃ 0.1867$
FIVE-NUMBER SUMMARY · BOX PLOTrange 0.0087$ · IQR 0.0013$ (1.349σ→0.0027$)
min 0.1823$Q₁ 0.1855$med 0.1864$Q₃ 0.1867$max 0.1910$μ
SKEWNESS · G₁-0.018approximately symmetric
−3−10+1+3
EXCESS KURTOSIS · G₂-0.051mesokurtic · normal-like
−30+2+4+6
μ ↔ median≈ equal · symmetric|μ−med| / σ = 0.10
σ × 1.349 ↔ IQRdiverges from normalratio = 2.19
range ↔ σwide tails (range > 4σ)range / σ = 4.28
μ = mean · σ = standard deviation · CV = coefficient of variation. Skew (G₁): >0 right-skewed. Kurt (G₂, excess): >0 leptokurtic. 95% CI = μ ± 1.96·SE.

§5 · Returns analytics (log-returns)

Risk-adjusted performance · log-returns
RETURNS · RISK-ADJUSTEDUNPROFITABLE · SR=-25.49
μᵣ MEAN / h-0.153001%drift is negative per h · |μ|/σ = 0.272
σᵣ STD / h0.561806%σ²ᵣ = 0.316×10⁻⁴ · CV = 3.67×
σ ANNUALISED52.58%/yrscaled by √8760 (hourly→yearly) · 0.562%/h base
RISK-ADJUSTED PERFORMANCEhigher = better edge per unit risk
SHARPE (annualised)-25.49negative edge
-2-10+1+2+3+4
SORTINO (annualised)-19.35downside drag
-2-10+1+2+3+4
CALMAR (return / max-DD)-100.00drawdown overwhelms returns
-20+2+4+6
RETURN-DISTRIBUTION SHAPE|skew| < 0.5 ≈ symmetric · |kurt| < 1 ≈ mesokurtic
SKEWNESS · G₁-0.34approximately symmetric
-3-10+1+3
EXCESS KURTOSIS · G₂-0.10mesokurtic · normal-like tails
-30+2+4+6
SORTINO vs SHARPEdownside vol < total vol · favourableSoR / SR = 0.76
CALMAR · DD CONTROLdrawdown > returns · adverseCR = -100.00
EXPECTED EDGE-1340.29%/yr driftμ × 8760 = annualised expectation
rₜ = ln(pₜ/pₜ₋₁). σ × √8760 = annualised. Sharpe = μ/σ scaled; Sortino uses downside-only vol; Calmar = annual return / max drawdown.

§6 · Risk metrics

Tail risk + drawdown · downside diagnostics
TAIL & DRAWDOWN RISKHIGH · 95% VaR 1.15%
VaR₉₅ (h)1.151%5% prob of larger adverse h move
VaR₉₉ (h)1.271%1% prob · extreme-tail threshold
ES₉₅ (CVaR)1.240%expected loss given 5% tail event
MAX DRAWDOWN4.54%23h from peak to trough
TAIL-RISK LADDER (h losses)larger negative = worse · markers show severity
0 · no lossVaR₉₅−1.151%VaR₉₉−1.271%ES₉₅−1.240%worst tail ←→ zero loss
MAX DRAWDOWN PROFILEmoderate drawdown · 23h duration
PEAK19.10$
−4.54% drawdown over 23h
18.23$TROUGH
ES / VaR · TAIL THICKNESSthin tails · ES ≈ VaR|ES₉₅| / |VaR₉₅| = 1.08× (normal ≈ 1.25)
VaR₉₉ / VaR₉₅ · CONCENTRATIONuniform tailratio = 1.10× (normal ≈ 1.41)
DRAWDOWN · CAPITAL DURATIONmoderate drawdownrecovery needed: +4.75% (compounding)
VaR = quantile loss · ES (CVaR) = expected loss conditional on tail · DD = peak-to-trough decline. Under normality ES₉₅/VaR₉₅ ≈ 1.25; ratio > 1.5 ⇒ fat-tail regime.

§7 · Technicals

RSI(14)
29.0 · oversold
Bollinger %B
0.013 · within band
Bollinger upper
$0.1890
Bollinger MA
$0.1856
Bollinger lower
$0.1823

§8 · Time-series structure

Regime & autocorrelation diagnostics
TIME-SERIES STRUCTUREREGIME: MEAN-REVERTING · ADF rejects unit root
ρ(1) AUTOCORR-0.098within white-noise band
ρ(2) AUTOCORR-0.218lag-2 not significant
H · HURST EXPONENT1.007strongly persistent
OLS TREND · t-STAT-8.134significant @ α=0.05
HURST EXPONENT [0, 1]strongly persistent · H = 1.007
H = 1.007STRONGLY PERSISTENT
0
anti-persistent0.45
mean-reverting0.5
random walk0.55
persistent1
strongly trending
AUTOCORRELATION FUNCTION · ρ(k) for k=1..5WHITE NOISE · no significant lags
k=1-0.098k=2-0.218k=3-0.144k=4-0.067k=5+0.0010+1−1+0.41−0.41+ momentum (ρ > +0.41)− reversal (ρ < −0.41)noise (within band)±2/√n threshold
OLS TREND · t-STAT · [-5, +5]SIGNIFICANT @ 1% (|t|=8.13)
−5 reject−1.960 retain H₀+1.96+5 reject
REGIME CLASSIFICATIONMEAN-REVERTING · ADF rejects unit rootfrom Hurst + ρ(1) joint diagnosis
PREDICTABILITY · score 1.00very high · strong structure|ρ(1)| + 2·|H − 0.5| heuristic
TREND SIGNIFICANCESIGNIFICANT @ 1% (|t|=8.13)α=0.05 critical |t|=1.96 · α=0.01 |t|=2.58
ρ(k) = lag-k sample autocorrelation · H = R/S Hurst exponent · t = OLS-trend t-statistic. Significance bands at ±2/√n approximate the 95% white-noise envelope. α=0.05 critical |t|=1.96; α=0.01 |t|=2.58.

§9 · Microstructure

24h volume (USD)
$1.50M
Open interest (USD)
$9.50M
Vol / OI (turnover)
0.16x
1h funding
-0.005931%
Funding (annualised)
-51.95%/yr

§10 · Position sizing

Continuous Kelly (μ/σ²)
-10.000× leverage · optimal log-utility leverage
Half-Kelly
-5.000× · industry-standard conservative
Quarter-Kelly
-2.500×

§11 · Hourly return heatmap

24-hour signed Δln-r grid · green = up · red = down
HOURLY RETURN HEATMAP · n=24 bars · best 0.97% · worst -1.30% · typical |Δ| 0.42%MILD BEARISH -3.67%BEST+0.97%15hWORST-1.30%16hTYPICAL |Δ|0.42%mean absoluteCUMULATIVE-3.67%Σ signed ΔSTREAK↘ 1down-runASIA · 00-08 UTCμ -0.02% · Σ -0.17%EUROPE · 08-16 UTCμ -0.15% · Σ -1.24%US · 16-24 UTCμ -0.28% · Σ -2.26%CUMULATIVE Δ PATH · final -3.67%+0.97%-3.67%0.97% · 15h0.97% · 15h0.97%15h★ BEST-1.30% · 16h-1.30% · 16h-1.30%16h▼ WORST-1.18% · 17h-1.18% · 17h-1.18%17h0.17% · 18h0.17% · 18h0.17%18h0.05% · 19h0.05% · 19h0.05%19h0.13% · 20h0.13% · 20h0.13%20h0.55% · 21h0.55% · 21h0.55%21h-0.69% · 22h-0.69% · 22h-0.69%22h0.02% · 23h0.02% · 23h0.02%23h0.01% · 00h0.01% · 00h0.01%00h0.62% · 01h0.62% · 01h0.62%01h-0.82% · 02h-0.82% · 02h-0.82%02h-0.40% · 03h-0.40% · 03h-0.40%03h-0.07% · 04h-0.07% · 04h-0.07%04h0.20% · 05h0.20% · 05h0.20%05h0.23% · 06h0.23% · 06h0.23%06h0.06% · 07h0.06% · 07h0.06%07h-0.04% · 08h-0.04% · 08h-0.04%08h-0.53% · 09h-0.53% · 09h-0.53%09h-0.96% · 10h-0.96% · 10h-0.96%10h0.08% · 11h0.08% · 11h0.08%11h-0.57% · 12h-0.57% · 12h-0.57%12h0.11% · 13h0.11% · 13h0.11%13h-0.30% · 14h-0.30% · 14h-0.30%14hTIME PATTERNAsia-led (+-0.17%)RUNSup max 4 · down max 3BREADTH54% up · 46% down
13 up bars · 11 down · best 0.97% · worst -1.30% · typical |Δ| 0.419%

§12 · Equity curve & underwater drawdown

Cumulative compounded return + running peak-to-trough
EQUITY & DRAWDOWN ANALYSIS · n=25 barsLOSS WITH MODERATE DD (-3.64%)FINAL-3.64%MAX DD-4.57%RECOVERYONGOING · 23 barsMAX RUN-UP+0.97%UNDERWATER23/25 (92%)STREAK↘ 1EQUITY CURVE · end 0.9636 · peak 1.0097 · range [0.9636, 1.0097]1.00970.9636break-even = 1★ PEAK 1.0097UNDERWATER DRAWDOWN · max -4.57% · moderate0%-4.57%▼ TROUGH -4.57%TOP DRAWDOWN PERIODS · 1 total#1 -4.57%bar 3-25 · 23 bars · ONGOINGDD SEVERITYmoderate (max -4.57%)RECOVERYongoing · 23 barsTIME UNDER WATER92% of session · 23/25 bars
final equity 0.9636 (-3.64%) · max DD -4.57% · time-under-water 23/25 bars

§13 · Rolling-window statistics (w = 6 bars)

Rolling annualised Sharpe ratio · green positive · red negative
n=19 · +3 / −16 (16% positive) · μ=-24.73 · σ=27.21UNPROFITABLE STRATEGYLAST -81.81 (-2.10σ vs μ)81.8140.910.00-40.91-81.81μ = -24.73-20.59-20.59-31.80-31.80-23.75-23.758.458.452.092.0920.6020.60-8.31-8.31-37.22-37.22-21.16-21.16-14.73-14.73-7.37-7.37-30.53-30.53-1.45-1.45-8.25-8.25-34.17-34.17-39.39-39.39-71.71-71.71-68.68-68.68-81.81-81.81v > 0 · positivev < 0 · negativeμ mean lineμ ± σ bandlatest bar (outlined)
latest -81.813 · range [-81.81, 20.60] · μ -24.726 · positive Sharpe = excess-return-per-risk earned by buying-and-holding through this window
Rolling annualised volatility (%)
n=19 · μ=45.9074 · σ=14.3235 · range [21.6082, 82.1784] · R²=0.407▼ FALLING -52.88%σ EXTREME 31.20%LAST 38.724582.178467.035951.893336.750821.6082μ = 45.9074max 82.1784min 21.6082dataMA(3)OLS R²=0.41μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
latest 38.72% · range [21.61%, 82.18%] · μ 45.91% · σ̂ scaled to annualised (×√8760)
Rolling lag-1 autocorrelation ρ(1)
n=19 · +6 / −13 (32% positive) · μ=-0.084 · σ=0.307MEAN-REVERSIONLAST -0.383 (-0.97σ vs μ)0.4960.2480.000-0.248-0.496μ = -0.084-0.101-0.1010.3740.374-0.183-0.183-0.376-0.376-0.394-0.394-0.283-0.283-0.496-0.496-0.187-0.187-0.193-0.193-0.178-0.178-0.124-0.1240.4610.4610.2780.2780.2040.2040.4540.4540.1370.137-0.195-0.195-0.411-0.411-0.383-0.383v > 0 · positivev < 0 · negativeμ mean lineμ ± σ bandlatest bar (outlined)
latest -0.383 · |ρ| > 0.3 ⇒ regime with persistence (ρ > 0) or reversal (ρ < 0) · |ρ| ≤ 0.1 = consistent with random walk

§14 · Hypothesis tests (α = 0.05)

Formal inference at 5% significance
1 of 6 REJECT · mixed evidence1 reject·5 pass·α = 0.05
𝒩

Jarque-Bera

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Δln-r ~ Normal(μ, σ²)

STATISTIC
0.4704
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.7904
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainednormality not rejected
ρ

Ljung-Box(h=5)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: No serial autocorrelation up to lag 5

STATISTIC
2.3712
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.7977
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedconsistent with white noise
Ψ

Dickey-Fuller (τ_μ)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: p has a unit root (non-stationary)

STATISTIC
-1.0108
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.7479
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedrandom-walk behaviour (crit ≈ -2.86)
±

Wald-Wolfowitz runs

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Sign sequence of Δ is random

STATISTIC
-0.3854
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.6999
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedsigns appear random (12 runs)
χ

KPSS (μ stationarity)

REJECT H₀**

H₀: p IS level-stationary

STATISTIC
0.7753
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.0082
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p < α · rejection zonenon-stationary (crit 0.463)
χ

Variance ratio q=3

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Δln-r is a random walk · VR = 1

STATISTIC
-0.9077
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.3640
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedVR 0.724 ≈ 1 (RW behaviour)
Each row states an explicit null H₀, the test statistic, an approximated p-value, and the decision. REJECT means evidence against H₀. KPSS complements ADF (rejecting both ⇒ ambiguous; rejecting one ⇒ clean verdict).

§15 · Spectral analysis (DFT periodogram)

Power spectrum of Δln-r · ‖X̂(k)‖²/n
n=12 bins · noise floor μ=3.42e-5 · top T=2.00h (23.0%) · top-3 cover 50.7%1 SIGNIFICANT CYCLEcumulative energy ↗ (1 bin above 2× noise)9.5e-57.1e-54.7e-52.4e-50.0e+0μ noise floor2× noise (significance)period 24.0 · power 1.16e-5 · 2.8% energyperiod 24.0 · power 1.16e-5 · 2.8% energyperiod 12.0 · power 1.18e-6 · 0.3% energyperiod 12.0 · power 1.18e-6 · 0.3% energyperiod 8.0 · power 4.84e-5 · 11.8% energyperiod 8.0 · power 4.84e-5 · 11.8% energyperiod 6.0 · power 4.98e-5 · 12.1% energyperiod 6.0 · power 4.98e-5 · 12.1% energyperiod 4.8 · power 4.91e-5 · 12.0% energyperiod 4.8 · power 4.91e-5 · 12.0% energyperiod 4.0 · power 5.47e-6 · 1.3% energyperiod 4.0 · power 5.47e-6 · 1.3% energyperiod 3.4 · power 6.35e-5 · 15.5% energyperiod 3.4 · power 6.35e-5 · 15.5% energyperiod 3.0 · power 2.59e-5 · 6.3% energyperiod 3.0 · power 2.59e-5 · 6.3% energyperiod 2.7 · power 9.63e-6 · 2.3% energyperiod 2.7 · power 9.63e-6 · 2.3% energyperiod 2.4 · power 4.73e-5 · 11.5% energyperiod 2.4 · power 4.73e-5 · 11.5% energyperiod 2.2 · power 3.75e-6 · 0.9% energyperiod 2.2 · power 3.75e-6 · 0.9% energyperiod 2.0 · power 9.46e-5 · 23.0% energyperiod 2.0 · power 9.46e-5 · 23.0% energy50% by T=3.4h#1 dominantT=2.00h#2T=3.43h#3T=6.00hT=2hT=3hT=4hT=6hT=8hT=12hT=16hT=24h← shorter cycle (high freq · Nyquist=½) · period T (bars per cycle) · longer cycle (low freq · 1/n) →#1 dominant#2 peak#3 peak> 2× noisenoiseμ floor2μ sig.cum energy
dominant period ≈ 2.00h (freq 0.500) · concentrates 23.0% of total energy · Σ|X̂|²/n = 4.103e-4

▸ Depth section using sovereign-store price series (5000 bars · effective 5257847 bars/year) — annualisation reflects native polling cadence, not upstream timeframes.

§16 · NOSTRADAMUS continuous quant — perp leverage & bootstrap MC

Continuous-price extension of the prediction-market quant module. Kelly growth on observed returns (Merton μ/σ² parametric vs argmax empirical), Monte-Carlo equity fan bootstrapped from the historical return distribution at quarter-Kelly leverage, and an annualized return decomposition. Sweep parameters in the simulator.

§17 · Continuous Kelly

Continuous-Kelly growth · g(f) = E[ln(1 + f·r)]
NO LONG EDGE · μ -0.000% per barparametric μ/σ² short edge (μ<0) · μ -0.000% · σ 0.02%
μ per barmean
-0.000%
σ per barvol
0.02%
Empirical f★argmax g(f)
0.00×
from observed distribution
Parametric f★μ/σ²
-94.77×
Merton continuous-time
Half-Kelly½ f★
0.00×
~⅔ of full growth, half the variance
Quarter-Kelly¼ f★
0.00×
industry default — survives model error
-0.00%0.02%0.05%0.07%0.10%0.0×1.6×3.2×4.8×6.4×8.0×leverage fraction fexpected log-growth per bar
g(f) empiricalf★ argmaxparametric f★
Maximum expected log-growth from leveraging the historical return distribution. Empirical f★ argmaxes the sample expectation; parametric f★ = μ/σ² is Merton's continuous-time optimum.

§18 · MC equity fan

Bootstrapped equity fan at 0.10× leverage
Median CAGR/bar -0.000% · annualized Sharpe -38.03400 paths × 720 bars · leverage 0.10× · bootstrap from 4999 observed returns
Sharpe / barμ/σ
-0.017
annualized -38.03
μ per barafter L
-0.000%
σ per barafter L
0.00%
VaR 95%5%
0.00%
per-bar worst-case
CVaR 95%ES
0.01%
mean tail loss
Max DD (median)MDD
-0.0%
0.95×0.97×0.99×1.01×1.03×1.05×0120240360480600720startbar #equity multiple
median25/75 band5/95 band
Median path with 25/75 and 5/95 percentile bands across 400 simulated careers. Bars resample with replacement from the observed return distribution — preserves fat tails the parametric model misses.

§19 · Annualized breakdown

Annualized return components
APR -1000% · APY -100% · Sharpe -45.27σ ann 48% · Sortino -36.80 · n 4999 · ⚠ capped (n=4999 too small to support 8760-bar projection)
-5432%-4334%-3237%-2139%-1041%57%-1000.0%APR (simple)-100.0%APY (compound)47.8%Ann. vol σ-4527.0%Sharpe (ann)-3680.2%Sortino (ann)
Simple APR vs compounded APY · annualized volatility · risk-adjusted Sharpe and Sortino. All scaled by √(periods/yr).

§20 · GARCH(1,1) volatility band

GARCH(1,1) · conditional vol envelope (±2σ)
GARCH persistence α+β = 0.980· σ̂ₜ = 1.000% · long-run σ = 2.236%
0.1750.1790.1830.1870.1910.195t-4999t-4166t-3333t-2500t-1666t-833t-0

Persistence near 1 ⇒ vol clusters strongly (slow mean reversion). Long-run σ is the unconditional target the conditional vol orbits. The ±2σ band reflects time-varying scale, unlike a flat-vol band.

Time-varying volatility band fitted to the price series. Persistence α+β > 0.98 means vol shocks decay slowly — recent moves stay relevant.

§∞ · Provenance & attestation

Upstream
api.hyperliquid.xyz
Snapshot fetched
2026-06-14 14:30:33 UTC
Snapshot age
2.1s
History points
25 hourly closes
Page rendered
2026-06-14 14:30:35 UTC
Storage policy
no persistence — fetched on every request
SHA-256 attestation
148940233d4024d3f043adc29732e5b7a0d9baeddf69348f0a4d64de28d0bd6e · deterministic hash of the source snapshot — proves this page was rendered from this exact data
Open data licence
CC0 / public domain · free to mirror, syndicate, analyse

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Also see: /arb opportunities · RSS feed

Market depth

▸ live order book · Hyperliquid perp
Depth within 1bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Depth within 5bp
$16.90K
bid $3.17K · ask $13.73K
Depth within 10bp
$67.97K
bid $22.37K · ask $45.61K
Depth within 50bp
$138.58K
bid $48.42K · ask $90.16K
Mid price
0.182500
(best bid + best ask) / 2
Spread
3.3bp
(bestAsk − bestBid) / mid
Imbalance (whole book)
-0.300
ask-heavy
Imbalance (top-5)
-0.444
ask-heavy top-of-book

Slippage scenarios

▸ live book walk · Hyperliquid perp

Simulating a market order at three notionals against the live book. Slippage = avg execution price vs. mid, in basis points. Worst fill = price of the deepest level touched. Live JSON: /api/asset/hl-XLM/slippage?size=10000&side=buy

SideNotionalAvg fillSlippageWorst fillLevelsStatus
BUY$1.00K0.1825362.00bp0.1825602FILLED
BUY$10.00K0.1825754.10bp0.1825905FILLED
BUY$100.00K0.1826769.63bp0.18278020PARTIAL
SELL$1.00K0.1824701.64bp0.1824701FILLED
SELL$10.00K0.1824055.19bp0.1823806FILLED
SELL$100.00K0.18227212.49bp0.18213020PARTIAL

Funding carry

▸ SHORTS PAY · longs receive
Hourly funding
-5.931e-5
-0.00593% / hr
Annualised APR
-51.988%
hourly · 24 · 365.25
Long: days to 1% carry
7.0d
longs receive
Short: days to 1% carry
7.0d
shorts pay
SideDirectionAnnualised carryDays → 1%Days → 10%
LONGRECEIVE51.988%7.0d70.3d
SHORTPAY-51.988%7.0d70.3d

/api/asset/hl-XLM/carry · same metrics, JSON

Volume profile

▸ real volume · Hyperliquid candlesstep $ 1 · 25 records
Price binBarsVolumeDistribution
$0.000000–$1.0000★25$8.13M

★ POC = Point of Control (highest-volume bin). Live JSON: /api/asset/hl-XLM/volprofile?priceStep=1

Order flow

▸ BID-LEAN · +0.085 · Hyperliquid candles
Bars (buy / sell)
13 / 11
1 unclassified
Buy weight
$4.34M
real volume
Sell weight
$3.66M
real volume
Net delta
$683.27K
buyers net
Imbalance
8.54%
(buy − sell) / (buy + sell)
Toxicity (VPIN)
8.5%
two-sided / balanced
Impact (|Δp|/vol)
—
needs real volume

Sparkline = cumulative delta over the 25-record window./api/asset/hl-XLM/flow?rollingWindow=30

Cascade clusters

▸ DOWN · 5 found · deepest 2.45% · Hyperliquid candles

Price-only proxy for forced-unwind clusters. No exchange liquidation feed is wired — read each row as a candidate event, not a confirmed liquidation.

#WindowDurationPeak → TroughDrawdownBars
#12026-06-13 16:00:00Z3.0h0.191010→0.1863302.450%4
#22026-06-14 09:00:00Z3.0h0.186420→0.1826902.001%4
#32026-06-14 02:00:00Z2.0h0.187910→0.1855001.283%3

/api/asset/hl-XLM/cascades?windowMs=10800000&minDrawdownPct=0.005 · full list + parameters in JSON

Risk metrics

▸ sovereign store · 5,000 barsperiods/year ≈ 5.26M
Realized vol (annualised)
47.77%
σ per bar = 0.000208
Mean return (annualised)
-2162.46%
μ per bar = -0.000004
Sharpe (rf=0)
-45.27
annualised; risk-free assumed zero
Max drawdown
2.73%
peak 0.19 → trough 0.18 over 2553 bars

/api/asset/hl-XLM/risk · same metrics, JSON