HYPERLIQUID · PERPETUAL FUTURES

WCT

WCT-USD perpetual · 24/7 trading on Hyperliquid

▸ Advanced metrics · M2M bundle

hyperliquid · perp-wct · fresh · feed 1s old
24h sparkline · 60 pts▲ 1.31%
realized vol (ann.)
155.32%
max drawdown
4.82%
sharpe
6.30
ulcer index
2.98%
RMS drawdown
pain index
2.33%
mean drawdown
mod. VaR 95%
0.00%
Cornish-Fisher
martin ratio
328.59
ret / ulcer
CDaR 95%
4.74%
cond. drawdown
gain/pain
1.01
Σgain / Σ|loss|
sterling
206.07
ret / CDaR
omega (θ=0)
1.01
upside/downside
roll spread
0.0 bps
implied (price-only)
bars used
2000
store
spread
—
24h Δ
1.31%
flow lean
—
carry
longs_pay
10.95%
signalNEUTRALconfidence 33%
  • 24h change +1.31%
  • funding: longs pay — perp shorts get paid to wait
  • mark cheap vs HL oracle by 11.4bps — long bias
Same bundle via M2M API: /api/m2m/hl-WCT/bundle · venue execution: hyperliquid →
LIVEPOLL0SRCFRESH1.5s⏱--:--:-- UTC8NEXT8.0sUP0s--:--HIST0/30
▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC FRESH·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC FRESH·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·
MARK · live
$0.047
24h Δ · live
1.31%
24h vol · live
$0.2M
WCT · live 24h price
n=25 · μ=0.0470 · σ=0.0003 · range [0.0465, 0.0477] · R²=0.017▲ RISING +1.25%σ LOW 0.59%LAST 0.04710.04770.04740.04710.04680.0465μ = 0.0470max 0.0477min 0.0465dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.02μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxminlive endpoint
25 closes · last $0.05
Funding direction · live
Long fee 48.1%Short fee 51.9%SHORT FEE51.9%
Σ = 0.0%
Σ-sides total = 0.00% (100.00pp arb gap)
H(p) entropy = 0.999 / 1.00 bits (100%) · max uncertainty (~50/50)
Long fee
48.1%▬ +0.00pp
Short fee
51.9%▬ +0.00pp
1h funding 0.001250% · longs pay
Hourly contract volume · live
n=25 · Σ=3,395,615 · μ=135824.6 · σ=245309.3 · CV=1.81BURSTY · concentratedcumulative energy ↗ · 50% by h=130256,997513,995770,9921,027,989μ = 1358251,027,98950%h1h5h9h13h17h21h25#1 peak#2-3> μactivequietμ linecum energy
peak 1027989 contracts
Live numerics · pulse on poll
LIVE NUMERICS9 metrics·POLL 0
⏱snapshot age
1.5s
$mark $
$0.0471
$mid $
$0.0471
◉prev-day close
$0.0465
Δ24h Δ %
+1.307%
$24h vol $
$160.28k
◐open interest $
$144.31k
%funding (1h)
0.001250%
%funding (yr)
+10.95%/yr

§1 · 24h time-series

Close price · hourly
n=25 · μ=0.0470 · σ=0.0003 · range [0.0465, 0.0477] · R²=0.017▲ RISING +1.25%σ LOW 0.59%LAST 0.04710.04770.04740.04710.04680.0465μ = 0.0470max 0.0477min 0.0465dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.02μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
mark $0.0471 · 24h 1.31% · range $[0.0465, 0.0477]
OHLC candles · hourly
n=25 · up 11 · down 14 (44% up) · range [0.0465, 0.0495] · σ=0.0003 · CV=0.01 · bodyµ=50%BULLISH +0.94%CLOSE 0.0471 vs OPEN 0.0467 (+0.94%)&#9650; CLOSE 0.04710.04950.04870.04800.04720.0465μ close = 0.0470O0.047 H0.047 L0.046 C0.047 (-0.30%)O0.047 H0.047 L0.046 C0.047 (-0.30%)2.2%O0.047 H0.048 L0.047 C0.048 (+2.20%)O0.047 H0.048 L0.047 C0.048 (+2.20%)O0.048 H0.048 L0.047 C0.047 (-1.30%)O0.048 H0.048 L0.047 C0.047 (-1.30%)O0.047 H0.047 L0.047 C0.047 (-0.52%)O0.047 H0.047 L0.047 C0.047 (-0.52%)O0.047 H0.047 L0.047 C0.047 (-0.47%)O0.047 H0.047 L0.047 C0.047 (-0.47%)O0.047 H0.047 L0.047 C0.047 (+0.49%)O0.047 H0.047 L0.047 C0.047 (+0.49%)O0.047 H0.047 L0.047 C0.047 (-0.13%)O0.047 H0.047 L0.047 C0.047 (-0.13%)O0.047 H0.047 L0.047 C0.047 (-0.25%)O0.047 H0.047 L0.047 C0.047 (-0.25%)O0.047 H0.048 L0.047 C0.047 (+0.26%)O0.047 H0.048 L0.047 C0.047 (+0.26%)O0.047 H0.047 L0.047 C0.047 (+0.05%)O0.047 H0.047 L0.047 C0.047 (+0.05%)O0.047 H0.047 L0.047 C0.047 (-0.28%)O0.047 H0.047 L0.047 C0.047 (-0.28%)O0.047 H0.047 L0.047 C0.047 (+0.49%)O0.047 H0.047 L0.047 C0.047 (+0.49%)O0.047 H0.047 L0.047 C0.047 (-0.34%)O0.047 H0.047 L0.047 C0.047 (-0.34%)O0.047 H0.047 L0.047 C0.047 (+0.44%)O0.047 H0.047 L0.047 C0.047 (+0.44%)O0.047 H0.047 L0.047 C0.047 (-0.46%)O0.047 H0.047 L0.047 C0.047 (-0.46%)O0.047 H0.047 L0.047 C0.047 (+0.13%)O0.047 H0.047 L0.047 C0.047 (+0.13%)O0.047 H0.047 L0.047 C0.047 (-0.27%)O0.047 H0.047 L0.047 C0.047 (-0.27%)O0.047 H0.047 L0.047 C0.047 (-0.13%)O0.047 H0.047 L0.047 C0.047 (-0.13%)O0.047 H0.047 L0.047 C0.047 (+0.88%)O0.047 H0.047 L0.047 C0.047 (+0.88%)O0.047 H0.047 L0.047 C0.047 (-0.41%)O0.047 H0.047 L0.047 C0.047 (-0.41%)O0.047 H0.047 L0.047 C0.047 (-0.15%)O0.047 H0.047 L0.047 C0.047 (-0.15%)O0.047 H0.047 L0.047 C0.047 (+1.17%)O0.047 H0.047 L0.047 C0.047 (+1.17%)O0.047 H0.049 L0.047 C0.048 (+0.74%)O0.047 H0.049 L0.047 C0.048 (+0.74%)O0.048 H0.048 L0.047 C0.047 (-1.31%)O0.048 H0.048 L0.047 C0.047 (-1.31%)O0.047 H0.047 L0.047 C0.047 (+0.02%)O0.047 H0.047 L0.047 C0.047 (+0.02%)#1#5#9#13#17#21#25up bar (C≥O)down bar (C<O)MA(5) closeμ closedoji (~no body)biggest body
25 bars
Hourly volume (base units)
n=25 · Σ=3,395,615 · μ=135824.6 · σ=245309.3 · CV=1.81BURSTY · concentratedcumulative energy &nearr; · 50% by h=130256,997513,995770,9921,027,989μ = 1358259,570 · 0.9% peak9,570 · 0.9% peak592,306 · 57.6% peak592,306 · 57.6% peak116,698 · 11.4% peak116,698 · 11.4% peak47,175 · 4.6% peak47,175 · 4.6% peak68,144 · 6.6% peak68,144 · 6.6% peak13,916 · 1.4% peak13,916 · 1.4% peak15,772 · 1.5% peak15,772 · 1.5% peak4,744 · 0.5% peak4,744 · 0.5% peak619,463 · 60.3% peak619,463 · 60.3% peak70,692 · 6.9% peak70,692 · 6.9% peak24,131 · 2.3% peak24,131 · 2.3% peak18,328 · 1.8% peak18,328 · 1.8% peak212,669 · 20.7% peak212,669 · 20.7% peak30,368 · 3.0% peak30,368 · 3.0% peak63,291 · 6.2% peak63,291 · 6.2% peak123,924 · 12.1% peak123,924 · 12.1% peak43,261 · 4.2% peak43,261 · 4.2% peak28,216 · 2.7% peak28,216 · 2.7% peak14,368 · 1.4% peak14,368 · 1.4% peak39,016 · 3.8% peak39,016 · 3.8% peak24,442 · 2.4% peak24,442 · 2.4% peak40,990 · 4.0% peak40,990 · 4.0% peak1,027,9891,027,989 · 100.0% peak1,027,989 · 100.0% peak119,440 · 11.6% peak119,440 · 11.6% peak26,702 · 2.6% peak26,702 · 2.6% peak50%#1#5#9#13#17#21#25#1 peak#2-3> μactivequietμ linecum energy
Σ vol 3395615 · peak 1027989 · CV 1.81

§2 · Returns distribution (log-returns)

Histogram of rₜ = ln(pₜ/pₜ₋₁)
n=24 · 12 bins · μ=0.0004 · σ=0.0072 · skew=0.74 (right-skewed) · kurt=1.50 (leptokurtic (fat tails))97520 2-126.87bpbin -126.87bp · n=2 · 22.2% peakbin -126.87bp · n=2 · 22.2% peak-95.66bp 2-64.45bpbin -64.45bp · n=2 · 22.2% peakbin -64.45bp · n=2 · 22.2% peak 4-33.23bpbin -33.23bp · n=4 · 44.4% peakbin -33.23bp · n=4 · 44.4% peak 9-2.02bpbin -2.02bp · n=9 · 100.0% peakbin -2.02bp · n=9 · 100.0% peak29.20bp 560.41bpbin 60.41bp · n=5 · 55.6% peakbin 60.41bp · n=5 · 55.6% peak91.63bp 1122.84bpbin 122.84bp · n=1 · 11.1% peakbin 122.84bp · n=1 · 11.1% peak154.06bp185.27bp 1216.48bpbin 216.48bp · n=1 · 11.1% peakbin 216.48bp · n=1 · 11.1% peakμΔ < 0 · loss barsΔ ≈ 0 · flatΔ > 0 · gain barsN(μ,σ²) referenceμ line · ±σ band shaded
n=24 · positive 11 · negative 13
Q-Q plot · standardised rₜ vs N(0,1)
n=24 · skew=0.78 · kurt=1.68 · near 20 / mid 4 / far 0 · OLS slope=0.99 intercept=-0.00APPROXIMATELY NORMALUPPER TAIL NORMALLOWER TAIL NORMAL-3σ-3σ-2σ-2σ-1σ-1σ+0σ+0σ+1σ+1σ+2σ+2σ+3σ+3σsample ↓marginal: sample bars + theoretical N(0,1) curve →theoretical Φ⁻¹(p) →↑ sample z-quantile|Δ| < 0.3σ · on the line|Δ| < 1σ · moderate|Δ| ≥ 1σ · outliery = x refOLS fit

§3 · Spot quote

Mark price
$0.0471
Mid price
$0.0471
24h change
+1.31%
Mark–mid spread
2.55 bps
Prev-day close
$0.0465

§4 · Sample moments (prices)

Descriptive statistics · 5-number summary · shape diagnostics
SAMPLE MOMENTS · N=25RIGHT-SKEWED (G₁=0.76)
μ MEAN0.0470$95% CI: [0.0469$, 0.0471$]
σ STD DEV0.0003$σ² = 0.001×10⁻⁴ · CV = 0.59%
med MEDIAN0.0470$Q₁ 0.0468$ · Q₃ 0.0471$
FIVE-NUMBER SUMMARY · BOX PLOTrange 0.0011$ · IQR 0.0003$ (1.349σ→0.0004$)
min 0.0465$Q₁ 0.0468$med 0.0470$Q₃ 0.0471$max 0.0477$μ
SKEWNESS · G₁0.758right-skewed
−3−10+1+3
EXCESS KURTOSIS · G₂0.073mesokurtic · normal-like
−30+2+4+6
μ ↔ medianμ > med · right-tailed|μ−med| / σ = 0.16
σ × 1.349 ↔ IQRdiverges from normalratio = 1.21
range ↔ σwide tails (range > 4σ)range / σ = 4.14
μ = mean · σ = standard deviation · CV = coefficient of variation. Skew (G₁): >0 right-skewed. Kurt (G₂, excess): >0 leptokurtic. 95% CI = μ ± 1.96·SE.

§5 · Returns analytics (log-returns)

Risk-adjusted performance · log-returns
RETURNS · RISK-ADJUSTEDEXCEPTIONAL EDGE · SR=6.27
μᵣ MEAN / h+0.051684%drift is positive per h · |μ|/σ = 0.067
σᵣ STD / h0.771935%σ²ᵣ = 0.596×10⁻⁴ · CV = 14.94×
σ ANNUALISED72.25%/yrscaled by √8760 (hourly→yearly) · 0.772%/h base
RISK-ADJUSTED PERFORMANCEhigher = better edge per unit risk
SHARPE (annualised)6.27excellent · top-decile
-2-10+1+2+3+4
SORTINO (annualised)7.88strong downside-adjusted
-2-10+1+2+3+4
CALMAR (return / max-DD)100.00exceptional DD control
-20+2+4+6
RETURN-DISTRIBUTION SHAPE|skew| < 0.5 ≈ symmetric · |kurt| < 1 ≈ mesokurtic
SKEWNESS · G₁0.83right-skewed · heavy positive tail
-3-10+1+3
EXCESS KURTOSIS · G₂2.39leptokurtic · fat tails
-30+2+4+6
SORTINO vs SHARPEdownside vol < total vol · favourableSoR / SR = 1.26
CALMAR · DD CONTROLdrawdown control exceptionalCR = 100.00
EXPECTED EDGE+452.75%/yr driftμ × 8760 = annualised expectation
rₜ = ln(pₜ/pₜ₋₁). σ × √8760 = annualised. Sharpe = μ/σ scaled; Sortino uses downside-only vol; Calmar = annual return / max drawdown.

§6 · Risk metrics

Tail risk + drawdown · downside diagnostics
TAIL & DRAWDOWN RISKHIGH · 95% VaR 1.11%
VaR₉₅ (h)1.115%5% prob of larger adverse h move
VaR₉₉ (h)1.368%1% prob · extreme-tail threshold
ES₉₅ (CVaR)1.301%expected loss given 5% tail event
MAX DRAWDOWN2.01%16h from peak to trough
TAIL-RISK LADDER (h losses)larger negative = worse · markers show severity
0 · no lossVaR₉₅−1.115%VaR₉₉−1.368%ES₉₅−1.301%worst tail ←→ zero loss
MAX DRAWDOWN PROFILEmoderate drawdown · 16h duration
PEAK4.76$
−2.01% drawdown over 16h
4.67$TROUGH
ES / VaR · TAIL THICKNESSmild tail heaviness|ES₉₅| / |VaR₉₅| = 1.17× (normal ≈ 1.25)
VaR₉₉ / VaR₉₅ · CONCENTRATIONuniform tailratio = 1.23× (normal ≈ 1.41)
DRAWDOWN · CAPITAL DURATIONmoderate drawdownrecovery needed: +2.05% (compounding)
VaR = quantile loss · ES (CVaR) = expected loss conditional on tail · DD = peak-to-trough decline. Under normality ES₉₅/VaR₉₅ ≈ 1.25; ratio > 1.5 ⇒ fat-tail regime.

§7 · Technicals

RSI(14)
54.5 · neutral
Bollinger %B
0.592 · within band
Bollinger upper
$0.0475
Bollinger MA
$0.0470
Bollinger lower
$0.0466

§8 · Time-series structure

Regime & autocorrelation diagnostics
TIME-SERIES STRUCTUREREGIME: MEAN-REVERTING · ρ(1) -0.31 + ADF rejected
ρ(1) AUTOCORR-0.313within white-noise band
ρ(2) AUTOCORR-0.134lag-2 not significant
H · HURST EXPONENT0.736strongly persistent
OLS TREND · t-STAT+0.630fails 5% test
HURST EXPONENT [0, 1]strongly persistent · H = 0.736
H = 0.736STRONGLY PERSISTENT
0
anti-persistent0.45
mean-reverting0.5
random walk0.55
persistent1
strongly trending
AUTOCORRELATION FUNCTION · ρ(k) for k=1..5WHITE NOISE · no significant lags
k=1-0.313k=2-0.134k=3-0.085k=4+0.130k=5-0.1320+1−1+0.41−0.41+ momentum (ρ > +0.41)− reversal (ρ < −0.41)noise (within band)±2/√n threshold
OLS TREND · t-STAT · [-5, +5]NOT SIGNIFICANT (|t|=0.63)
−5 reject−1.960 retain H₀+1.96+5 reject
REGIME CLASSIFICATIONMEAN-REVERTING · ρ(1) -0.31 + ADF rejectedfrom Hurst + ρ(1) joint diagnosis
PREDICTABILITY · score 0.78very high · strong structure|ρ(1)| + 2·|H − 0.5| heuristic
TREND SIGNIFICANCENOT SIGNIFICANT (|t|=0.63)α=0.05 critical |t|=1.96 · α=0.01 |t|=2.58
ρ(k) = lag-k sample autocorrelation · H = R/S Hurst exponent · t = OLS-trend t-statistic. Significance bands at ±2/√n approximate the 95% white-noise envelope. α=0.05 critical |t|=1.96; α=0.01 |t|=2.58.

§9 · Microstructure

24h volume (USD)
$160.28k
Open interest (USD)
$144.31k
Vol / OI (turnover)
1.11x
1h funding
0.001250%
Funding (annualised)
+10.95%/yr

§10 · Position sizing

Continuous Kelly (μ/σ²)
8.674× leverage · optimal log-utility leverage
Half-Kelly
4.337× · industry-standard conservative
Quarter-Kelly
2.168×

§11 · Hourly return heatmap

24-hour signed Δln-r grid · green = up · red = down
HOURLY RETURN HEATMAP · n=24 bars · best 2.32% · worst -1.42% · typical |Δ| 0.53%MILD BULLISH +1.24%BEST+2.32%15hWORST-1.42%16hTYPICAL |Δ|0.53%mean absoluteCUMULATIVE+1.24%Σ signed ΔSTREAK↘ 2down-runASIA · 00-08 UTCμ -0.17% · Σ -1.34%EUROPE · 08-16 UTCμ +0.41% · Σ +3.27%US · 16-24 UTCμ -0.09% · Σ -0.69%CUMULATIVE Δ PATH · final +1.24%+2.43%0.00%2.32% · 15h2.32% · 15h2.32%15h★ BEST-1.42% · 16h-1.42% · 16h-1.42%16h▼ WORST-0.29% · 17h-0.29% · 17h-0.29%17h-0.12% · 18h-0.12% · 18h-0.12%18h0.49% · 19h0.49% · 19h0.49%19h-0.02% · 20h-0.02% · 20h-0.02%20h0.49% · 21h0.49% · 21h0.49%21h0.05% · 22h0.05% · 22h0.05%22h0.13% · 23h0.13% · 23h0.13%23h-0.76% · 00h-0.76% · 00h-0.76%00h0.05% · 01h0.05% · 01h0.05%01h-0.39% · 02h-0.39% · 02h-0.39%02h0.66% · 03h0.66% · 03h0.66%03h-0.59% · 04h-0.59% · 04h-0.59%04h0.08% · 05h0.08% · 05h0.08%05h-0.11% · 06h-0.11% · 06h-0.11%06h-0.29% · 07h-0.29% · 07h-0.29%07h0.75% · 08h0.75% · 08h0.75%08h-0.45% · 09h-0.45% · 09h-0.45%09h-0.10% · 10h-0.10% · 10h-0.10%10h1.19% · 11h1.19% · 11h1.19%11h0.74% · 12h0.74% · 12h0.74%12h-1.18% · 13h-1.18% · 13h-1.18%13h-0.01% · 14h-0.01% · 14h-0.01%14hTIME PATTERNEurope-led (+3.27%)RUNSup max 3 · down max 3BREADTH46% up · 54% down
11 up bars · 13 down · best 2.32% · worst -1.42% · typical |Δ| 0.529%

§12 · Equity curve & underwater drawdown

Cumulative compounded return + running peak-to-trough
EQUITY & DRAWDOWN ANALYSIS · n=25 barsPROFITABLE +1.18%FINAL+1.18%MAX DD-2.03%RECOVERYONGOING · 20 barsMAX RUN-UP+2.40%UNDERWATER22/25 (88%)STREAK↘ 2EQUITY CURVE · end 1.0118 · peak 1.0240 · range [1.0000, 1.0240]1.02401.0000break-even = 1★ PEAK 1.0240UNDERWATER DRAWDOWN · max -2.03% · moderate0%-2.03%▼ TROUGH -2.03%TOP DRAWDOWN PERIODS · 2 total#1 -2.03%bar 3-22 · 20 bars · recovered#2 -1.19%bar 24-25 · 2 bars · ONGOINGDD SEVERITYmoderate (max -2.03%)RECOVERYongoing · 23 barsTIME UNDER WATER88% of session · 22/25 bars
final equity 1.0118 (1.18%) · max DD -2.03% · time-under-water 22/25 bars

§13 · Rolling-window statistics (w = 6 bars)

Rolling annualised Sharpe ratio · green positive · red negative
n=19 · +9 / −10 (47% positive) · μ=3.30 · σ=24.46MIXED EDGELAST 3.62 (+0.01σ vs μ)61.2030.600.00-30.60-61.20μ = 3.3012.1412.14-19.26-19.2629.0729.0761.2061.2012.8512.85-2.26-2.26-15.06-15.06-8.01-8.01-26.14-26.14-27.94-27.94-10.31-10.31-22.17-22.1714.9514.95-19.61-19.61-4.06-4.0623.9323.9343.0043.0016.7916.793.623.62v > 0 · positivev < 0 · negativeμ mean lineμ ± σ bandlatest bar (outlined)
latest 3.616 · range [-27.94, 61.20] · μ 3.301 · positive Sharpe = excess-return-per-risk earned by buying-and-holding through this window
Rolling annualised volatility (%)
n=19 · μ=52.9227 · σ=21.3788 · range [24.4778, 115.4235] · R²=0.016▼ FALLING -31.65%σ EXTREME 40.40%LAST 78.8973115.423592.687169.950747.214224.4778μ = 52.9227max 115.4235min 24.4778dataMA(3)OLS R²=0.02μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
latest 78.90% · range [24.48%, 115.42%] · μ 52.92% · σ̂ scaled to annualised (×√8760)
Rolling lag-1 autocorrelation ρ(1)
n=19 · +1 / −18 (5% positive) · μ=-0.355 · σ=0.262MEAN-REVERSIONLAST -0.020 (+1.28σ vs μ)0.7810.3900.000-0.390-0.781μ = -0.355-0.360-0.3600.1440.144-0.221-0.221-0.732-0.732-0.129-0.129-0.146-0.146-0.181-0.181-0.383-0.383-0.636-0.636-0.595-0.595-0.781-0.781-0.699-0.699-0.399-0.399-0.471-0.471-0.560-0.560-0.287-0.287-0.118-0.118-0.163-0.163-0.020-0.020v > 0 · positivev < 0 · negativeμ mean lineμ ± σ bandlatest bar (outlined)
latest -0.020 · |ρ| > 0.3 ⇒ regime with persistence (ρ > 0) or reversal (ρ < 0) · |ρ| ≤ 0.1 = consistent with random walk

§14 · Hypothesis tests (α = 0.05)

Formal inference at 5% significance
3 of 6 REJECT · mixed evidence3 reject·3 pass·α = 0.05
𝒩

Jarque-Bera

REJECT H₀*

H₀: Δln-r ~ Normal(μ, σ²)

STATISTIC
8.4694
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.0145
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p < α · rejection zonenon-normal · fat tails or skew present
ρ

Ljung-Box(h=5)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: No serial autocorrelation up to lag 5

STATISTIC
4.4861
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.4831
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedconsistent with white noise
Ψ

Dickey-Fuller (τ_μ)

REJECT H₀***

H₀: p has a unit root (non-stationary)

STATISTIC
-4.5033
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.0004
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p < α · rejection zonestationary · mean-reverting (crit ≈ -2.86)
±

Wald-Wolfowitz runs

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Sign sequence of Δ is random

STATISTIC
1.2965
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.1948
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedsigns appear random (16 runs)
χ

KPSS (μ stationarity)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: p IS level-stationary

STATISTIC
0.1079
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.5000
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedstationary not rejected (crit 0.463)
χ

Variance ratio q=3

REJECT H₀*

H₀: Δln-r is a random walk · VR = 1

STATISTIC
-2.1769
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.0295
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p < α · rejection zoneVR 0.338 → mean-reverting
Each row states an explicit null H₀, the test statistic, an approximated p-value, and the decision. REJECT means evidence against H₀. KPSS complements ADF (rejecting both ⇒ ambiguous; rejecting one ⇒ clean verdict).

§15 · Spectral analysis (DFT periodogram)

Power spectrum of Δln-r · ‖X̂(k)‖²/n
n=12 bins · noise floor μ=6.18e-5 · top T=3.43h (22.3%) · top-3 cover 56.8%2 SIGNIFICANT CYCLEScumulative energy ↗ (2 bins above 2× noise)1.7e-41.2e-48.3e-54.1e-50.0e+0μ noise floor2× noise (significance)period 24.0 · power 1.33e-5 · 1.8% energyperiod 24.0 · power 1.33e-5 · 1.8% energyperiod 12.0 · power 8.35e-6 · 1.1% energyperiod 12.0 · power 8.35e-6 · 1.1% energyperiod 8.0 · power 1.36e-5 · 1.8% energyperiod 8.0 · power 1.36e-5 · 1.8% energyperiod 6.0 · power 2.26e-5 · 3.1% energyperiod 6.0 · power 2.26e-5 · 3.1% energyperiod 4.8 · power 2.26e-5 · 3.0% energyperiod 4.8 · power 2.26e-5 · 3.0% energyperiod 4.0 · power 1.42e-4 · 19.2% energyperiod 4.0 · power 1.42e-4 · 19.2% energyperiod 3.4 · power 1.66e-4 · 22.3% energyperiod 3.4 · power 1.66e-4 · 22.3% energyperiod 3.0 · power 1.14e-4 · 15.3% energyperiod 3.0 · power 1.14e-4 · 15.3% energyperiod 2.7 · power 9.46e-6 · 1.3% energyperiod 2.7 · power 9.46e-6 · 1.3% energyperiod 2.4 · power 7.43e-5 · 10.0% energyperiod 2.4 · power 7.43e-5 · 10.0% energyperiod 2.2 · power 4.33e-5 · 5.8% energyperiod 2.2 · power 4.33e-5 · 5.8% energyperiod 2.0 · power 1.13e-4 · 15.2% energyperiod 2.0 · power 1.13e-4 · 15.2% energy50% by T=3.4h#1 dominantT=3.43h#2T=4.00h#3T=3.00hT=2hT=3hT=4hT=6hT=8hT=12hT=16hT=24h← shorter cycle (high freq · Nyquist=½) · period T (bars per cycle) · longer cycle (low freq · 1/n) →#1 dominant#2 peak#3 peak> 2× noisenoiseμ floor2μ sig.cum energy
dominant period ≈ 3.43h (freq 0.292) · concentrates 22.3% of total energy · Σ|X̂|²/n = 7.416e-4

▸ Depth section using sovereign-store price series (5000 bars · effective 5257847 bars/year) — annualisation reflects native polling cadence, not upstream timeframes.

§16 · NOSTRADAMUS continuous quant — perp leverage & bootstrap MC

Continuous-price extension of the prediction-market quant module. Kelly growth on observed returns (Merton μ/σ² parametric vs argmax empirical), Monte-Carlo equity fan bootstrapped from the historical return distribution at quarter-Kelly leverage, and an annualized return decomposition. Sweep parameters in the simulator.

§17 · Continuous Kelly

Continuous-Kelly growth · g(f) = E[ln(1 + f·r)]
f★ empirical 1.18× · g(f★) 0.000%/barparametric μ/σ² 1.17× · μ 0.000% · σ 0.05%
μ per barmean
0.000%
σ per barvol
0.05%
Empirical f★argmax g(f)
1.18×
from observed distribution
Parametric f★μ/σ²
1.17×
Merton continuous-time
Half-Kelly½ f★
0.59×
~⅔ of full growth, half the variance
Quarter-Kelly¼ f★
0.29×
industry default — survives model error
-0.00%-0.00%-0.00%-0.00%0.00%0.0×0.8×1.6×2.4×3.1×3.9×f★ empμ/σ²leverage fraction fexpected log-growth per bar
g(f) empiricalf★ argmaxparametric f★
Maximum expected log-growth from leveraging the historical return distribution. Empirical f★ argmaxes the sample expectation; parametric f★ = μ/σ² is Merton's continuous-time optimum.

§18 · MC equity fan

Bootstrapped equity fan at 0.29× leverage
Median CAGR/bar 0.000% · annualized Sharpe 11.91400 paths × 720 bars · leverage 0.29× · bootstrap from 4999 observed returns
Sharpe / barμ/σ
0.005
annualized 11.91
μ per barafter L
0.000%
σ per barafter L
0.01%
VaR 95%5%
0.01%
per-bar worst-case
CVaR 95%ES
0.03%
mean tail loss
Max DD (median)MDD
-0.0%
0.95×0.97×0.99×1.01×1.03×1.06×0120240360480600720startbar #equity multiple
median25/75 band5/95 band
Median path with 25/75 and 5/95 percentile bands across 400 simulated careers. Bars resample with replacement from the observed return distribution — preserves fat tails the parametric model misses.

§19 · Annualized breakdown

Annualized return components
APR 134% · APY 116% · Sharpe 1.25σ ann 107% · Sortino 1.23 · n 4999
0%32%64%96%129%161%134.0%APR (simple)115.8%APY (compound)107.0%Ann. vol σ125.2%Sharpe (ann)123.1%Sortino (ann)
Simple APR vs compounded APY · annualized volatility · risk-adjusted Sharpe and Sortino. All scaled by √(periods/yr).

§20 · GARCH(1,1) volatility band

GARCH(1,1) · conditional vol envelope (±2σ)
GARCH persistence α+β = 0.980· σ̂ₜ = 1.000% · long-run σ = 2.236%
0.0450.0460.0470.0490.0500.051t-4999t-4166t-3333t-2500t-1666t-833t-0

Persistence near 1 ⇒ vol clusters strongly (slow mean reversion). Long-run σ is the unconditional target the conditional vol orbits. The ±2σ band reflects time-varying scale, unlike a flat-vol band.

Time-varying volatility band fitted to the price series. Persistence α+β > 0.98 means vol shocks decay slowly — recent moves stay relevant.

§∞ · Provenance & attestation

Upstream
api.hyperliquid.xyz
Snapshot fetched
2026-06-14 14:29:54 UTC
Snapshot age
1.5s
History points
25 hourly closes
Page rendered
2026-06-14 14:29:56 UTC
Storage policy
no persistence — fetched on every request
SHA-256 attestation
c9ee8379555e2a6d8eecbfa15fe5b4c05170766ddafea8af476644bb4a6ac3f0 · deterministic hash of the source snapshot — proves this page was rendered from this exact data
Open data licence
CC0 / public domain · free to mirror, syndicate, analyse

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Also see: /arb opportunities · RSS feed

Market depth

▸ live order book · Hyperliquid perp
Depth within 1bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Depth within 5bp
$4.61K
bid $2.03K · ask $2.58K
Depth within 10bp
$12.11K
bid $6.46K · ask $5.65K
Depth within 50bp
$23.49K
bid $10.82K · ask $12.67K
Mid price
0.047138
(best bid + best ask) / 2
Spread
3.2bp
(bestAsk − bestBid) / mid
Imbalance (whole book)
+0.190
bid-heavy
Imbalance (top-5)
-0.048
ask-heavy top-of-book

Slippage scenarios

▸ live book walk · Hyperliquid perp

Simulating a market order at three notionals against the live book. Slippage = avg execution price vs. mid, in basis points. Worst fill = price of the deepest level touched. Live JSON: /api/asset/hl-WCT/slippage?size=10000&side=buy

SideNotionalAvg fillSlippageWorst fillLevelsStatus
BUY$1.00K0.0471492.25bp0.0471552FILLED
BUY$10.00K0.04719111.15bp0.04727510FILLED
BUY$100.00K0.04729733.69bp0.04770620PARTIAL
SELL$1.00K0.0471252.78bp0.0471172FILLED
SELL$10.00K0.04707912.68bp0.04697211FILLED
SELL$100.00K0.04672986.78bp0.04632820PARTIAL

Funding carry

▸ LONGS PAY · shorts receive
Hourly funding
+1.250e-5
0.00125% / hr
Annualised APR
10.958%
hourly · 24 · 365.25
Long: days to 1% carry
33.3d
longs pay
Short: days to 1% carry
33.3d
shorts receive
SideDirectionAnnualised carryDays → 1%Days → 10%
LONGPAY-10.958%33.3d333.3d
SHORTRECEIVE10.958%33.3d333.3d

/api/asset/hl-WCT/carry · same metrics, JSON

Volume profile

▸ real volume · Hyperliquid candlesstep $ 1 · 25 records
Price binBarsVolumeDistribution
$0.000000–$1.0000★25$3.40M

★ POC = Point of Control (highest-volume bin). Live JSON: /api/asset/hl-WCT/volprofile?priceStep=1

Order flow

▸ BID-LEAN · +0.510 · Hyperliquid candles
Bars (buy / sell)
11 / 13
1 unclassified
Buy weight
$2.56M
real volume
Sell weight
$828.96K
real volume
Net delta
$1.73M
buyers net
Imbalance
51.04%
(buy − sell) / (buy + sell)
Toxicity (VPIN)
51.0%
one-sided / toxic
Impact (|Δp|/vol)
—
needs real volume

Sparkline = cumulative delta over the 25-record window./api/asset/hl-WCT/flow?rollingWindow=30

Cascade clusters

▸ DOWN · 5 found · deepest 1.82% · Hyperliquid candles

Price-only proxy for forced-unwind clusters. No exchange liquidation feed is wired — read each row as a candidate event, not a confirmed liquidation.

#WindowDurationPeak → TroughDrawdownBars
#12026-06-13 16:00:00Z2.0h0.047642→0.0467771.816%3
#22026-06-14 13:00:00Z1.0h0.047694→0.0471301.183%2
#32026-06-14 00:00:00Z2.0h0.047315→0.0467991.091%3

/api/asset/hl-WCT/cascades?windowMs=10800000&minDrawdownPct=0.005 · full list + parameters in JSON

Risk metrics

▸ sovereign store · 5,000 barsperiods/year ≈ 5.26M
Realized vol (annualised)
106.98%
σ per bar = 0.000467
Mean return (annualised)
133.96%
μ per bar = 0.000000
Sharpe (rf=0)
1.25
annualised; risk-free assumed zero
Max drawdown
4.82%
peak 0.05 → trough 0.05 over 1139 bars

/api/asset/hl-WCT/risk · same metrics, JSON