HYPERLIQUID · PERPETUAL FUTURES

USUAL

USUAL-USD perpetual · 24/7 trading on Hyperliquid

▸ Advanced metrics · M2M bundle

hyperliquid · perp-usual · fresh · feed 5s old
24h sparkline · 60 pts▼ -4.04%
realized vol (ann.)
102.79%
max drawdown
3.04%
sharpe
-45.76
ulcer index
1.67%
RMS drawdown
pain index
1.32%
mean drawdown
mod. VaR 95%
0.06%
Cornish-Fisher
martin ratio
-2819.26
ret / ulcer
CDaR 95%
2.89%
cond. drawdown
gain/pain
0.89
Σgain / Σ|loss|
sterling
-1625.52
ret / CDaR
omega (θ=0)
0.89
upside/downside
roll spread
1.9 bps
implied (price-only)
bars used
2000
store
spread
—
24h Δ
-4.04%
flow lean
—
carry
longs_pay
10.95%
signalSHORTconfidence 40%suggested side: SELL
  • 24h change -4.04%
  • funding: longs pay — perp shorts get paid to wait
  • mark cheap vs HL oracle by 10.0bps — long bias
Same bundle via M2M API: /api/m2m/hl-USUAL/bundle · venue execution: hyperliquid →
LIVEPOLL0SRCFRESH4.9s⏱--:--:-- UTC8NEXT8.0sUP0s--:--HIST0/30
▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC FRESH·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC FRESH·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·
MARK · live
$0.010
24h Δ · live
-4.04%
24h vol · live
$0.0M
USUAL · live 24h price
n=24 · μ=0.0103 · σ=0.0001 · range [0.0099, 0.0105] · R²=0.744▼ FALLING -4.31%σ NORMAL 1.43%LAST 0.01000.01050.01030.01020.01000.0099μ = 0.0103max 0.0105min 0.0099dataMA(4)OLS R²=0.74μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxminlive endpoint
24 closes · last $0.01
Funding direction · live
Long fee 48.1%Short fee 51.9%SHORT FEE51.9%
Σ = 0.0%
Σ-sides total = 0.00% (100.00pp arb gap)
H(p) entropy = 0.999 / 1.00 bits (100%) · max uncertainty (~50/50)
Long fee
48.1%▬ +0.00pp
Short fee
51.9%▬ +0.00pp
1h funding 0.001250% · longs pay
Hourly contract volume · live
n=24 · Σ=3,075,871 · μ=128161.3 · σ=182882.9 · CV=1.43BURSTY · concentratedcumulative energy ↗ · 50% by h=200216,694433,387650,081866,775μ = 128161866,774.550%h1h5h9h13h17h21#1 peak#2-3> μactivequietμ linecum energy
peak 866775 contracts
Live numerics · pulse on poll
LIVE NUMERICS9 metrics·POLL 0
⏱snapshot age
4.9s
$mark $
$0.01
$mid $
$0.01
◉prev-day close
$0.0104
Δ24h Δ %
-4.042%
$24h vol $
$31.41k
◐open interest $
$148.31k
%funding (1h)
0.001250%
%funding (yr)
+10.95%/yr

§1 · 24h time-series

Close price · hourly
n=24 · μ=0.0103 · σ=0.0001 · range [0.0099, 0.0105] · R²=0.744▼ FALLING -4.31%σ NORMAL 1.43%LAST 0.01000.01050.01030.01020.01000.0099μ = 0.0103max 0.0105min 0.0099dataMA(4)OLS R²=0.74μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
mark $0.0100 · 24h -4.04% · range $[0.0099, 0.0105]
OHLC candles · hourly
n=24 · up 12 · down 12 (50% up) · range [0.0099, 0.0105] · σ=0.0001 · CV=0.01 · bodyµ=62%BEARISH -3.95%CLOSE 0.0100 vs OPEN 0.0104 (-3.95%)&#9660; CLOSE 0.01000.01050.01030.01020.01000.0099μ close = 0.0103O0.010 H0.010 L0.010 C0.010 (+0.38%)O0.010 H0.010 L0.010 C0.010 (+0.38%)O0.010 H0.010 L0.010 C0.010 (+0.00%)O0.010 H0.010 L0.010 C0.010 (+0.00%)O0.010 H0.010 L0.010 C0.010 (+0.00%)O0.010 H0.010 L0.010 C0.010 (+0.00%)O0.010 H0.010 L0.010 C0.010 (+0.38%)O0.010 H0.010 L0.010 C0.010 (+0.38%)O0.010 H0.010 L0.010 C0.010 (+0.10%)O0.010 H0.010 L0.010 C0.010 (+0.10%)O0.010 H0.010 L0.010 C0.010 (+1.16%)O0.010 H0.010 L0.010 C0.010 (+1.16%)O0.010 H0.010 L0.010 C0.010 (-0.38%)O0.010 H0.010 L0.010 C0.010 (-0.38%)O0.010 H0.010 L0.010 C0.010 (-0.68%)O0.010 H0.010 L0.010 C0.010 (-0.68%)O0.010 H0.010 L0.010 C0.010 (-0.49%)O0.010 H0.010 L0.010 C0.010 (-0.49%)O0.010 H0.010 L0.010 C0.010 (-0.20%)O0.010 H0.010 L0.010 C0.010 (-0.20%)O0.010 H0.010 L0.010 C0.010 (-0.49%)O0.010 H0.010 L0.010 C0.010 (-0.49%)O0.010 H0.010 L0.010 C0.010 (-0.10%)O0.010 H0.010 L0.010 C0.010 (-0.10%)O0.010 H0.010 L0.010 C0.010 (-0.20%)O0.010 H0.010 L0.010 C0.010 (-0.20%)O0.010 H0.010 L0.010 C0.010 (+0.20%)O0.010 H0.010 L0.010 C0.010 (+0.20%)O0.010 H0.010 L0.010 C0.010 (-0.19%)O0.010 H0.010 L0.010 C0.010 (-0.19%)O0.010 H0.010 L0.010 C0.010 (+0.00%)O0.010 H0.010 L0.010 C0.010 (+0.00%)O0.010 H0.010 L0.010 C0.010 (+0.49%)O0.010 H0.010 L0.010 C0.010 (+0.49%)O0.010 H0.010 L0.010 C0.010 (+0.39%)O0.010 H0.010 L0.010 C0.010 (+0.39%)O0.010 H0.010 L0.010 C0.010 (-0.68%)O0.010 H0.010 L0.010 C0.010 (-0.68%)O0.010 H0.010 L0.010 C0.010 (+0.20%)O0.010 H0.010 L0.010 C0.010 (+0.20%)O0.010 H0.010 L0.010 C0.010 (-0.59%)O0.010 H0.010 L0.010 C0.010 (-0.59%)O0.010 H0.010 L0.010 C0.010 (-0.20%)O0.010 H0.010 L0.010 C0.010 (-0.20%)-2.7%O0.010 H0.010 L0.010 C0.010 (-2.66%)O0.010 H0.010 L0.010 C0.010 (-2.66%)O0.010 H0.010 L0.010 C0.010 (+0.30%)O0.010 H0.010 L0.010 C0.010 (+0.30%)#1#5#9#13#17#21up bar (C≥O)down bar (C<O)MA(4) closeμ closedoji (~no body)biggest body
24 bars
Hourly volume (base units)
n=24 · Σ=3,075,871 · μ=128161.3 · σ=182882.9 · CV=1.43BURSTY · concentratedcumulative energy &nearr; · 50% by h=200216,694433,387650,081866,775μ = 128161339,830.3 · 39.2% peak339,830.3 · 39.2% peak137,301.9 · 15.8% peak137,301.9 · 15.8% peak35,694.6 · 4.1% peak35,694.6 · 4.1% peak78,350.5 · 9.0% peak78,350.5 · 9.0% peak10,839.4 · 1.3% peak10,839.4 · 1.3% peak78,736.1 · 9.1% peak78,736.1 · 9.1% peak66,627 · 7.7% peak66,627 · 7.7% peak77,148.5 · 8.9% peak77,148.5 · 8.9% peak24,785.3 · 2.9% peak24,785.3 · 2.9% peak251,802.2 · 29.1% peak251,802.2 · 29.1% peak104,647.2 · 12.1% peak104,647.2 · 12.1% peak118,951.3 · 13.7% peak118,951.3 · 13.7% peak44,248.9 · 5.1% peak44,248.9 · 5.1% peak7,108.4 · 0.8% peak7,108.4 · 0.8% peak26,717 · 3.1% peak26,717 · 3.1% peak3,432.6 · 0.4% peak3,432.6 · 0.4% peak26,843.5 · 3.1% peak26,843.5 · 3.1% peak13,886 · 1.6% peak13,886 · 1.6% peak7,509.6 · 0.9% peak7,509.6 · 0.9% peak218,662.2 · 25.2% peak218,662.2 · 25.2% peak178,950.5 · 20.6% peak178,950.5 · 20.6% peak271,574.8 · 31.3% peak271,574.8 · 31.3% peak866,774.5866,774.5 · 100.0% peak866,774.5 · 100.0% peak85,449 · 9.9% peak85,449 · 9.9% peak50%#1#5#9#13#17#21#1 peak#2-3> μactivequietμ linecum energy
Σ vol 3075871 · peak 866775 · CV 1.43

§2 · Returns distribution (log-returns)

Histogram of rₜ = ln(pₜ/pₜ₋₁)
n=23 · 12 bins · μ=-0.0017 · σ=0.0064 · skew=-1.76 (left-skewed) · kurt=4.35 (leptokurtic (fat tails))65320 1-244.74bpbin -244.74bp · n=1 · 16.7% peakbin -244.74bp · n=1 · 16.7% peak-214.70bp-184.66bp-154.62bp-124.58bp 2-94.54bpbin -94.54bp · n=2 · 33.3% peakbin -94.54bp · n=2 · 33.3% peak 1-64.51bpbin -64.51bp · n=1 · 16.7% peakbin -64.51bp · n=1 · 16.7% peak 5-34.47bpbin -34.47bp · n=5 · 83.3% peakbin -34.47bp · n=5 · 83.3% peak 6-4.43bpbin -4.43bp · n=6 · 100.0% peakbin -4.43bp · n=6 · 100.0% peak 625.61bpbin 25.61bp · n=6 · 100.0% peakbin 25.61bp · n=6 · 100.0% peak 155.65bpbin 55.65bp · n=1 · 16.7% peakbin 55.65bp · n=1 · 16.7% peak 185.69bpbin 85.69bp · n=1 · 16.7% peakbin 85.69bp · n=1 · 16.7% peakμΔ < 0 · loss barsΔ ≈ 0 · flatΔ > 0 · gain barsN(μ,σ²) referenceμ line · ±σ band shaded
n=23 · positive 8 · negative 10
Q-Q plot · standardised rₜ vs N(0,1)
n=23 · skew=-1.62 · kurt=3.80 · near 12 / mid 10 / far 1 · OLS slope=0.94 intercept=-0.00LEPTOKURTIC — FAT TAILSUPPER TAIL NORMALMILDLY HEAVY LOWER-3σ-3σ-2σ-2σ-1σ-1σ+0σ+0σ+1σ+1σ+2σ+2σ+3σ+3σsample ↓marginal: sample bars + theoretical N(0,1) curve →theoretical Φ⁻¹(p) →↑ sample z-quantile|Δ| < 0.3σ · on the line|Δ| < 1σ · moderate|Δ| ≥ 1σ · outliery = x refOLS fit

§3 · Spot quote

Mark price
$0.01
Mid price
$0.01
24h change
-4.04%
Mark–mid spread
0.00 bps
Prev-day close
$0.0104

§4 · Sample moments (prices)

Descriptive statistics · 5-number summary · shape diagnostics
SAMPLE MOMENTS · N=24APPROXIMATELY NORMAL · WELL-BEHAVED
μ MEAN0.0103$95% CI: [0.0102$, 0.0103$]
σ STD DEV0.0001$σ² = 0.000×10⁻⁴ · CV = 1.43%
med MEDIAN0.0102$Q₁ 0.0102$ · Q₃ 0.0104$
FIVE-NUMBER SUMMARY · BOX PLOTrange 0.0006$ · IQR 0.0002$ (1.349σ→0.0002$)
min 0.0099$Q₁ 0.0102$med 0.0102$Q₃ 0.0104$max 0.0105$μ
SKEWNESS · G₁-0.392approximately symmetric
−3−10+1+3
EXCESS KURTOSIS · G₂0.001mesokurtic · normal-like
−30+2+4+6
μ ↔ medianμ > med · right-tailed|μ−med| / σ = 0.14
σ × 1.349 ↔ IQRconsistent with normalratio = 1.02
range ↔ σwide tails (range > 4σ)range / σ = 4.08
μ = mean · σ = standard deviation · CV = coefficient of variation. Skew (G₁): >0 right-skewed. Kurt (G₂, excess): >0 leptokurtic. 95% CI = μ ± 1.96·SE.

§5 · Returns analytics (log-returns)

Risk-adjusted performance · log-returns
RETURNS · RISK-ADJUSTEDUNPROFITABLE · SR=-25.09
μᵣ MEAN / h-0.191753%drift is negative per h · |μ|/σ = 0.268
σᵣ STD / h0.715281%σ²ᵣ = 0.512×10⁻⁴ · CV = 3.73×
σ ANNUALISED66.95%/yrscaled by √8760 (hourly→yearly) · 0.715%/h base
RISK-ADJUSTED PERFORMANCEhigher = better edge per unit risk
SHARPE (annualised)-25.09negative edge
-2-10+1+2+3+4
SORTINO (annualised)-17.63downside drag
-2-10+1+2+3+4
CALMAR (return / max-DD)-100.00drawdown overwhelms returns
-20+2+4+6
RETURN-DISTRIBUTION SHAPE|skew| < 0.5 ≈ symmetric · |kurt| < 1 ≈ mesokurtic
SKEWNESS · G₁-1.73left-skewed · heavy negative tail
-3-10+1+3
EXCESS KURTOSIS · G₂5.10leptokurtic · fat tails
-30+2+4+6
SORTINO vs SHARPEdownside vol < total vol · favourableSoR / SR = 0.70
CALMAR · DD CONTROLdrawdown > returns · adverseCR = -100.00
EXPECTED EDGE-1679.76%/yr driftμ × 8760 = annualised expectation
rₜ = ln(pₜ/pₜ₋₁). σ × √8760 = annualised. Sharpe = μ/σ scaled; Sortino uses downside-only vol; Calmar = annual return / max drawdown.

§6 · Risk metrics

Tail risk + drawdown · downside diagnostics
TAIL & DRAWDOWN RISKHIGH · 95% VaR 1.07%
VaR₉₅ (h)1.065%5% prob of larger adverse h move
VaR₉₉ (h)2.261%1% prob · extreme-tail threshold
ES₉₅ (CVaR)1.832%expected loss given 5% tail event
MAX DRAWDOWN5.73%17h from peak to trough
TAIL-RISK LADDER (h losses)larger negative = worse · markers show severity
0 · no lossVaR₉₅−1.065%VaR₉₉−2.261%ES₉₅−1.832%worst tail ←→ zero loss
MAX DRAWDOWN PROFILEsignificant drawdown · 17h duration
PEAK1.05$
−5.73% drawdown over 17h
0.99$TROUGH
ES / VaR · TAIL THICKNESSmoderate fat tail|ES₉₅| / |VaR₉₅| = 1.72× (normal ≈ 1.25)
VaR₉₉ / VaR₉₅ · CONCENTRATIONextreme-tail dominated · severe outliersratio = 2.12× (normal ≈ 1.41)
DRAWDOWN · CAPITAL DURATIONsignificant drawdownrecovery needed: +6.07% (compounding)
VaR = quantile loss · ES (CVaR) = expected loss conditional on tail · DD = peak-to-trough decline. Under normality ES₉₅/VaR₉₅ ≈ 1.25; ratio > 1.5 ⇒ fat-tail regime.

§7 · Technicals

RSI(14)
28.8 · oversold
Bollinger %B
0.058 · within band
Bollinger upper
$0.0105
Bollinger MA
$0.0102
Bollinger lower
$0.0099

§8 · Time-series structure

Regime & autocorrelation diagnostics
TIME-SERIES STRUCTUREREGIME: MEAN-REVERTING · ρ(1) -0.27 + ADF rejected
ρ(1) AUTOCORR-0.267within white-noise band
ρ(2) AUTOCORR+0.082lag-2 not significant
H · HURST EXPONENT0.829strongly persistent
OLS TREND · t-STAT-8.000significant @ α=0.05
HURST EXPONENT [0, 1]strongly persistent · H = 0.829
H = 0.829STRONGLY PERSISTENT
0
anti-persistent0.45
mean-reverting0.5
random walk0.55
persistent1
strongly trending
AUTOCORRELATION FUNCTION · ρ(k) for k=1..5WHITE NOISE · no significant lags
k=1-0.267k=2+0.082k=3-0.111k=4+0.152k=5-0.2440+1−1+0.42−0.42+ momentum (ρ > +0.42)− reversal (ρ < −0.42)noise (within band)±2/√n threshold
OLS TREND · t-STAT · [-5, +5]SIGNIFICANT @ 1% (|t|=8.00)
−5 reject−1.960 retain H₀+1.96+5 reject
REGIME CLASSIFICATIONMEAN-REVERTING · ρ(1) -0.27 + ADF rejectedfrom Hurst + ρ(1) joint diagnosis
PREDICTABILITY · score 0.92very high · strong structure|ρ(1)| + 2·|H − 0.5| heuristic
TREND SIGNIFICANCESIGNIFICANT @ 1% (|t|=8.00)α=0.05 critical |t|=1.96 · α=0.01 |t|=2.58
ρ(k) = lag-k sample autocorrelation · H = R/S Hurst exponent · t = OLS-trend t-statistic. Significance bands at ±2/√n approximate the 95% white-noise envelope. α=0.05 critical |t|=1.96; α=0.01 |t|=2.58.

§9 · Microstructure

24h volume (USD)
$31.41k
Open interest (USD)
$148.31k
Vol / OI (turnover)
0.21x
1h funding
0.001250%
Funding (annualised)
+10.95%/yr

§10 · Position sizing

Continuous Kelly (μ/σ²)
-10.000× leverage · optimal log-utility leverage
Half-Kelly
-5.000× · industry-standard conservative
Quarter-Kelly
-2.500×

§11 · Hourly return heatmap

24-hour signed Δln-r grid · green = up · red = down
HOURLY RETURN HEATMAP · n=23 bars · best 1.01% · worst -2.60% · typical |Δ| 0.46%BEARISH SESSION -4.41%BEST+1.01%15hWORST-2.60%14hTYPICAL |Δ|0.46%mean absoluteCUMULATIVE-4.41%Σ signed ΔSTREAK↗ 1up-runASIA · 00-08 UTCμ -0.05% · Σ -0.39%EUROPE · 08-16 UTCμ -0.30% · Σ -2.38%US · 16-24 UTCμ -0.23% · Σ -1.64%CUMULATIVE Δ PATH · final -4.41%+0.48%-5.42%0.00% · 17h0.00% · 17h·17h0.00% · 18h0.00% · 18h·18h0.19% · 19h0.19% · 19h0.19%19h-0.10% · 20h-0.10% · 20h-0.10%20h0.38% · 21h0.38% · 21h0.38%21h-1.06% · 22h-1.06% · 22h-1.06%22h-1.07% · 23h-1.07% · 23h-1.07%23h-0.49% · 00h-0.49% · 00h-0.49%00h0.20% · 01h0.20% · 01h0.20%01h-0.29% · 02h-0.29% · 02h-0.29%02h0.00% · 03h0.00% · 03h·03h-0.29% · 04h-0.29% · 04h-0.29%04h0.59% · 05h0.59% · 05h0.59%05h0.20% · 06h0.20% · 06h0.20%06h-0.29% · 07h-0.29% · 07h-0.29%07h0.20% · 08h0.20% · 08h0.20%08h0.29% · 09h0.29% · 09h0.29%09h-0.78% · 10h-0.78% · 10h-0.78%10h0.00% · 11h0.00% · 11h·11h-0.49% · 12h-0.49% · 12h-0.49%12h0.00% · 13h0.00% · 13h·13h-2.60% · 14h-2.60% · 14h-2.60%14h▼ WORST1.01% · 15h1.01% · 15h1.01%15h★ BESTTIME PATTERNAsia-led (+-0.39%)RUNSup max 2 · down max 3BREADTH35% up · 43% down · 22% flat
8 up bars · 10 down · best 1.01% · worst -2.60% · typical |Δ| 0.457%

§12 · Equity curve & underwater drawdown

Cumulative compounded return + running peak-to-trough
EQUITY & DRAWDOWN ANALYSIS · n=24 barsLOSS WITH MODERATE DD (-4.37%)FINAL-4.37%MAX DD-5.78%RECOVERYONGOING · 18 barsMAX RUN-UP+0.48%UNDERWATER19/24 (79%)STREAK↗ 1EQUITY CURVE · end 0.9563 · peak 1.0048 · range [0.9467, 1.0048]1.00480.9467break-even = 1★ PEAK 1.0048UNDERWATER DRAWDOWN · max -5.78% · significant0%-5.78%▼ TROUGH -5.78%TOP DRAWDOWN PERIODS · 2 total#1 -5.78%bar 7-24 · 18 bars · ONGOING#2 -0.10%bar 5-5 · 1 bars · recoveredDD SEVERITYsignificant (max -5.78%)RECOVERYongoing · 18 barsTIME UNDER WATER79% of session · 19/24 bars
final equity 0.9563 (-4.37%) · max DD -5.78% · time-under-water 19/24 bars

§13 · Rolling-window statistics (w = 5 bars)

Rolling annualised Sharpe ratio · green positive · red negative
n=19 · +6 / −13 (32% positive) · μ=-24.59 · σ=41.40UNPROFITABLE STRATEGYLAST -29.18 (-0.11σ vs μ)94.6647.330.00-47.33-94.66μ = -24.5946.8046.80-19.40-19.40-44.60-44.60-69.53-69.53-55.96-55.96-94.66-94.66-63.36-63.36-60.76-60.769.889.889.869.869.909.9019.5019.5057.7557.75-16.11-16.11-25.34-25.34-31.84-31.84-42.52-42.52-67.56-67.56-29.18-29.18v > 0 · positivev < 0 · negativeμ mean lineμ ± σ bandlatest bar (outlined)
latest -29.184 · range [-94.66, 57.75] · μ -24.587 · positive Sharpe = excess-return-per-risk earned by buying-and-holding through this window
Rolling annualised volatility (%)
n=19 · μ=49.4279 · σ=25.7185 · range [17.9033, 125.0124] · R²=0.124▲ RISING +598.26%σ EXTREME 52.03%LAST 125.0124125.012498.235171.457844.680617.9033μ = 49.4279max 125.0124min 17.9033dataMA(3)OLS R²=0.12μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
latest 125.01% · range [17.90%, 125.01%] · μ 49.43% · σ̂ scaled to annualised (×√8760)
Rolling lag-1 autocorrelation ρ(1)
n=19 · +5 / −14 (26% positive) · μ=-0.235 · σ=0.295MEAN-REVERSIONLAST -0.571 (-1.14σ vs μ)0.6930.3470.000-0.347-0.693μ = -0.235-0.501-0.501-0.336-0.3360.1610.1610.1160.116-0.043-0.0430.4040.4040.0680.068-0.683-0.683-0.381-0.381-0.130-0.130-0.248-0.248-0.385-0.3850.0000.000-0.334-0.334-0.368-0.368-0.320-0.320-0.693-0.693-0.213-0.213-0.571-0.571v > 0 · positivev < 0 · negativeμ mean lineμ ± σ bandlatest bar (outlined)
latest -0.571 · |ρ| > 0.3 ⇒ regime with persistence (ρ > 0) or reversal (ρ < 0) · |ρ| ≤ 0.1 = consistent with random walk

§14 · Hypothesis tests (α = 0.05)

Formal inference at 5% significance
2 of 6 REJECT · mixed evidence2 reject·4 pass·α = 0.05
𝒩

Jarque-Bera

REJECT H₀***

H₀: Δln-r ~ Normal(μ, σ²)

STATISTIC
36.3778
p-VALUE (log scale)
< 0.0001
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p < α · rejection zonenon-normal · fat tails or skew present
ρ

Ljung-Box(h=5)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: No serial autocorrelation up to lag 5

STATISTIC
4.9975
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.4168
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedconsistent with white noise
Ψ

Dickey-Fuller (τ_μ)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: p has a unit root (non-stationary)

STATISTIC
-0.7552
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.8267
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedrandom-walk behaviour (crit ≈ -2.86)
±

Wald-Wolfowitz runs

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Sign sequence of Δ is random

STATISTIC
0.5471
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.5843
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedsigns appear random (11 runs)
χ

KPSS (μ stationarity)

REJECT H₀*

H₀: p IS level-stationary

STATISTIC
0.7308
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.0107
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p < α · rejection zonenon-stationary (crit 0.463)
χ

Variance ratio q=2

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Δln-r is a random walk · VR = 1

STATISTIC
-1.4599
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.1443
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedVR 0.696 ≈ 1 (RW behaviour)
Each row states an explicit null H₀, the test statistic, an approximated p-value, and the decision. REJECT means evidence against H₀. KPSS complements ADF (rejecting both ⇒ ambiguous; rejecting one ⇒ clean verdict).

§15 · Spectral analysis (DFT periodogram)

Power spectrum of Δln-r · ‖X̂(k)‖²/n
n=11 bins · noise floor μ=5.12e-5 · top T=3.83h (18.5%) · top-3 cover 50.5%1 SIGNIFICANT CYCLEcumulative energy ↗ (1 bin above 2× noise)1.0e-47.8e-55.2e-52.6e-50.0e+0μ noise floor2× noise (significance)period 23.0 · power 9.92e-6 · 1.8% energyperiod 23.0 · power 9.92e-6 · 1.8% energyperiod 11.5 · power 7.84e-5 · 13.9% energyperiod 11.5 · power 7.84e-5 · 13.9% energyperiod 7.7 · power 3.93e-5 · 7.0% energyperiod 7.7 · power 3.93e-5 · 7.0% energyperiod 5.8 · power 5.85e-6 · 1.0% energyperiod 5.8 · power 5.85e-6 · 1.0% energyperiod 4.6 · power 2.61e-5 · 4.6% energyperiod 4.6 · power 2.61e-5 · 4.6% energyperiod 3.8 · power 1.04e-4 · 18.5% energyperiod 3.8 · power 1.04e-4 · 18.5% energyperiod 3.3 · power 3.90e-5 · 6.9% energyperiod 3.3 · power 3.90e-5 · 6.9% energyperiod 2.9 · power 2.04e-5 · 3.6% energyperiod 2.9 · power 2.04e-5 · 3.6% energyperiod 2.6 · power 5.97e-5 · 10.6% energyperiod 2.6 · power 5.97e-5 · 10.6% energyperiod 2.3 · power 9.03e-5 · 16.0% energyperiod 2.3 · power 9.03e-5 · 16.0% energyperiod 2.1 · power 8.97e-5 · 15.9% energyperiod 2.1 · power 8.97e-5 · 15.9% energy50% by T=3.3h#1 dominantT=3.83h#2T=2.30h#3T=2.09hT=3hT=4hT=6hT=8hT=12hT=16h← shorter cycle (high freq · Nyquist=½) · period T (bars per cycle) · longer cycle (low freq · 1/n) →#1 dominant#2 peak#3 peak> 2× noisenoiseμ floor2μ sig.cum energy
dominant period ≈ 3.83h (freq 0.261) · concentrates 18.5% of total energy · Σ|X̂|²/n = 5.628e-4

▸ Depth section using sovereign-store price series (5000 bars · effective 5257847 bars/year) — annualisation reflects native polling cadence, not upstream timeframes.

§16 · NOSTRADAMUS continuous quant — perp leverage & bootstrap MC

Continuous-price extension of the prediction-market quant module. Kelly growth on observed returns (Merton μ/σ² parametric vs argmax empirical), Monte-Carlo equity fan bootstrapped from the historical return distribution at quarter-Kelly leverage, and an annualized return decomposition. Sweep parameters in the simulator.

§17 · Continuous Kelly

Continuous-Kelly growth · g(f) = E[ln(1 + f·r)]
NO LONG EDGE · μ -0.000% per barparametric μ/σ² short edge (μ<0) · μ -0.000% · σ 0.04%
μ per barmean
-0.000%
σ per barvol
0.04%
Empirical f★argmax g(f)
0.00×
from observed distribution
Parametric f★μ/σ²
-30.60×
Merton continuous-time
Half-Kelly½ f★
0.00×
~⅔ of full growth, half the variance
Quarter-Kelly¼ f★
0.00×
industry default — survives model error
-0.00%0.02%0.05%0.07%0.10%0.0×1.6×3.2×4.8×6.4×8.0×leverage fraction fexpected log-growth per bar
g(f) empiricalf★ argmaxparametric f★
Maximum expected log-growth from leveraging the historical return distribution. Empirical f★ argmaxes the sample expectation; parametric f★ = μ/σ² is Merton's continuous-time optimum.

§18 · MC equity fan

Bootstrapped equity fan at 0.10× leverage
Median CAGR/bar -0.000% · annualized Sharpe -32.72400 paths × 720 bars · leverage 0.10× · bootstrap from 4999 observed returns
Sharpe / barμ/σ
-0.014
annualized -32.72
μ per barafter L
-0.000%
σ per barafter L
0.00%
VaR 95%5%
0.01%
per-bar worst-case
CVaR 95%ES
0.01%
mean tail loss
Max DD (median)MDD
-0.0%
0.95×0.97×0.99×1.01×1.03×1.05×0120240360480600720startbar #equity multiple
median25/75 band5/95 band
Median path with 25/75 and 5/95 percentile bands across 400 simulated careers. Bars resample with replacement from the observed return distribution — preserves fat tails the parametric model misses.

§19 · Annualized breakdown

Annualized return components
APR -1000% · APY -100% · Sharpe -26.50σ ann 87% · Sortino -8.81 · n 4999 · ⚠ capped (n=4999 too small to support 8760-bar projection)
-3180%-2524%-1867%-1210%-553%104%-1000.0%APR (simple)-100.0%APY (compound)86.6%Ann. vol σ-2650.4%Sharpe (ann)-881.5%Sortino (ann)
Simple APR vs compounded APY · annualized volatility · risk-adjusted Sharpe and Sortino. All scaled by √(periods/yr).

§20 · GARCH(1,1) volatility band

GARCH(1,1) · conditional vol envelope (±2σ)
GARCH persistence α+β = 0.980· σ̂ₜ = 1.000% · long-run σ = 2.236%
0.0090.0100.0100.0100.0100.011t-4999t-4166t-3333t-2500t-1666t-833t-0

Persistence near 1 ⇒ vol clusters strongly (slow mean reversion). Long-run σ is the unconditional target the conditional vol orbits. The ±2σ band reflects time-varying scale, unlike a flat-vol band.

Time-varying volatility band fitted to the price series. Persistence α+β > 0.98 means vol shocks decay slowly — recent moves stay relevant.

§∞ · Provenance & attestation

Upstream
api.hyperliquid.xyz
Snapshot fetched
2026-06-14 16:00:12 UTC
Snapshot age
4.9s
History points
24 hourly closes
Page rendered
2026-06-14 16:00:12 UTC
Storage policy
no persistence — fetched on every request
SHA-256 attestation
2d60d6151e2af767c05bb49219c9eb38a89e8058a5fdb43a7d4944fc9b94b520 · deterministic hash of the source snapshot — proves this page was rendered from this exact data
Open data licence
CC0 / public domain · free to mirror, syndicate, analyse

§∞-2 · Related markets · explore more

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Also see: /arb opportunities · RSS feed

Market depth

▸ live order book · Hyperliquid perp
Depth within 1bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Depth within 5bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Depth within 10bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Depth within 50bp
$21.41K
bid $12.11K · ask $9.30K
Mid price
0.009970
(best bid + best ask) / 2
Spread
20.1bp
(bestAsk − bestBid) / mid
Imbalance (whole book)
+0.070
bid-heavy
Imbalance (top-5)
+0.003
bid-heavy top-of-book

Slippage scenarios

▸ live book walk · Hyperliquid perp

Simulating a market order at three notionals against the live book. Slippage = avg execution price vs. mid, in basis points. Worst fill = price of the deepest level touched. Live JSON: /api/asset/hl-USUAL/slippage?size=10000&side=buy

SideNotionalAvg fillSlippageWorst fillLevelsStatus
BUY$1.00K0.00998716.78bp0.0099902FILLED
BUY$10.00K0.00999828.44bp0.0100205FILLED
BUY$100.00K0.010160190.81bp0.01076020PARTIAL
SELL$1.00K0.00996010.03bp0.0099601FILLED
SELL$10.00K0.00994822.12bp0.0099304FILLED
SELL$100.00K0.009766204.20bp0.00304020PARTIAL

Funding carry

▸ LONGS PAY · shorts receive
Hourly funding
+1.250e-5
0.00125% / hr
Annualised APR
10.958%
hourly · 24 · 365.25
Long: days to 1% carry
33.3d
longs pay
Short: days to 1% carry
33.3d
shorts receive
SideDirectionAnnualised carryDays → 1%Days → 10%
LONGPAY-10.958%33.3d333.3d
SHORTRECEIVE10.958%33.3d333.3d

/api/asset/hl-USUAL/carry · same metrics, JSON

Volume profile

▸ real volume · Hyperliquid candlesstep $ 1 · 24 records
Price binBarsVolumeDistribution
$0.000000–$1.0000★24$3.08M

★ POC = Point of Control (highest-volume bin). Live JSON: /api/asset/hl-USUAL/volprofile?priceStep=1

Order flow

▸ ASK-LEAN · -0.556 · Hyperliquid candles
Bars (buy / sell)
8 / 13
3 unclassified
Buy weight
$568.89K
real volume
Sell weight
$1.99M
real volume
Net delta
$1.43M
sellers net
Imbalance
-55.61%
(buy − sell) / (buy + sell)
Toxicity (VPIN)
55.6%
one-sided / toxic
Impact (|Δp|/vol)
—
needs real volume

Sparkline = cumulative delta over the 24-record window./api/asset/hl-USUAL/flow?rollingWindow=30

Cascade clusters

▸ DOWN · 4 found · deepest 3.04% · Hyperliquid candles

Price-only proxy for forced-unwind clusters. No exchange liquidation feed is wired — read each row as a candidate event, not a confirmed liquidation.

#WindowDurationPeak → TroughDrawdownBars
#12026-06-14 14:00:00Z1.0h0.010190→0.0098803.042%2
#22026-06-13 22:00:00Z4.0h0.010480→0.0102002.672%5
#32026-06-14 10:00:00Z2.0h0.010270→0.0101401.266%3

/api/asset/hl-USUAL/cascades?windowMs=10800000&minDrawdownPct=0.005 · full list + parameters in JSON

Risk metrics

▸ sovereign store · 5,000 barsperiods/year ≈ 5.26M
Realized vol (annualised)
86.62%
σ per bar = 0.000378
Mean return (annualised)
-2295.64%
μ per bar = -0.000004
Sharpe (rf=0)
-26.50
annualised; risk-free assumed zero
Max drawdown
3.98%
peak 0.01 → trough 0.01 over 2842 bars

/api/asset/hl-USUAL/risk · same metrics, JSON