HYPERLIQUID · PERPETUAL FUTURES

TAO

TAO-USD perpetual · 24/7 trading on Hyperliquid

▸ Advanced metrics · M2M bundle

hyperliquid · perp-tao · fresh · feed 1s old
24h sparkline · 60 pts▼ -0.59%
realized vol (ann.)
148.69%
max drawdown
5.91%
sharpe
-94.43
ulcer index
3.01%
RMS drawdown
pain index
2.66%
mean drawdown
mod. VaR 95%
0.10%
Cornish-Fisher
martin ratio
-4665.01
ret / ulcer
CDaR 95%
5.33%
cond. drawdown
gain/pain
0.88
Σgain / Σ|loss|
sterling
-2635.54
ret / CDaR
omega (θ=0)
0.88
upside/downside
roll spread
0.0 bps
implied (price-only)
bars used
2000
store
spread
—
24h Δ
-0.59%
flow lean
—
carry
longs_pay
10.95%
signalNEUTRALconfidence 36%
  • funding: longs pay — perp shorts get paid to wait
  • mark rich vs HL oracle by 6.8bps — fade/short bias
Same bundle via M2M API: /api/m2m/hl-TAO/bundle · venue execution: hyperliquid →
LIVEPOLL0SRCFRESH1.4s⏱--:--:-- UTC8NEXT8.0sUP0s--:--HIST0/30
▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC FRESH·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC FRESH·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·
MARK · live
$258.825
24h Δ · live
-0.59%
24h vol · live
$77.7M
TAO · live 24h price
n=25 · μ=266.2488 · σ=6.7884 · range [251.4200, 276.1300] · R²=0.194▼ FALLING -2.59%σ NORMAL 2.55%LAST 258.8200276.1300269.9525263.7750257.5975251.4200μ = 266.2488max 276.1300min 251.4200dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.19μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxminlive endpoint
25 closes · last $258.82
Funding direction · live
Long fee 48.1%Short fee 51.9%SHORT FEE51.9%
Σ = 0.0%
Σ-sides total = 0.00% (100.00pp arb gap)
H(p) entropy = 0.999 / 1.00 bits (100%) · max uncertainty (~50/50)
Long fee
48.1%▬ +0.00pp
Short fee
51.9%▬ +0.00pp
1h funding 0.001250% · longs pay
Hourly contract volume · live
n=25 · Σ=302,440 · μ=12097.6 · σ=9126.8 · CV=0.75FADING -46% h/hcumulative energy ↗ · 50% by h=709,29918,59727,89637,194μ = 1209837,194.0250%h1h5h9h13h17h21h25#1 peak#2-3> μactivequietμ linecum energy
peak 37194 contracts
Live numerics · pulse on poll
LIVE NUMERICS9 metrics·POLL 0
⏱snapshot age
1.4s
$mark $
$258.825
$mid $
$258.825
◉prev-day close
$260.37
Δ24h Δ %
-0.593%
$24h vol $
$77.71M
◐open interest $
$51.45M
%funding (1h)
0.001250%
%funding (yr)
+10.95%/yr

§1 · 24h time-series

Close price · hourly
n=25 · μ=266.2488 · σ=6.7884 · range [251.4200, 276.1300] · R²=0.194▼ FALLING -2.59%σ NORMAL 2.55%LAST 258.8200276.1300269.9525263.7750257.5975251.4200μ = 266.2488max 276.1300min 251.4200dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.19μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
mark $258.8250 · 24h -0.59% · range $[251.4200, 276.1300]
OHLC candles · hourly
n=25 · up 12 · down 13 (48% up) · range [250.2500, 283.5600] · σ=6.7884 · CV=0.03 · bodyµ=43%BULLISH +1.00%CLOSE 258.8200 vs OPEN 256.2700 (+1.00%)&#9650; CLOSE 258.8200283.5600275.2325266.9050258.5775250.2500μ close = 266.2488O256.270 H266.620 L256.180 C265.710 (+3.68%)O256.270 H266.620 L256.180 C265.710 (+3.68%)O265.980 H269.790 L258.700 C263.060 (-1.10%)O265.980 H269.790 L258.700 C263.060 (-1.10%)O262.940 H265.560 L260.790 C265.000 (+0.78%)O262.940 H265.560 L260.790 C265.000 (+0.78%)O265.000 H277.320 L258.680 C262.430 (-0.97%)O265.000 H277.320 L258.680 C262.430 (-0.97%)O262.320 H262.700 L251.420 C256.840 (-2.09%)O262.320 H262.700 L251.420 C256.840 (-2.09%)O256.940 H257.080 L250.710 C251.420 (-2.15%)O256.940 H257.080 L250.710 C251.420 (-2.15%)O251.480 H256.570 L250.250 C256.110 (+1.84%)O251.480 H256.570 L250.250 C256.110 (+1.84%)O255.990 H264.380 L253.380 C260.460 (+1.75%)O255.990 H264.380 L253.380 C260.460 (+1.75%)O260.590 H264.530 L260.220 C262.480 (+0.73%)O260.590 H264.530 L260.220 C262.480 (+0.73%)O262.320 H266.920 L261.560 C262.990 (+0.26%)O262.320 H266.920 L261.560 C262.990 (+0.26%)O262.880 H267.520 L261.550 C264.770 (+0.72%)O262.880 H267.520 L261.550 C264.770 (+0.72%)O264.690 H269.920 L261.860 C265.330 (+0.24%)O264.690 H269.920 L261.860 C265.330 (+0.24%)4.1%O265.220 H276.450 L264.050 C276.130 (+4.11%)O265.220 H276.450 L264.050 C276.130 (+4.11%)O276.110 H277.170 L272.510 C275.810 (-0.11%)O276.110 H277.170 L272.510 C275.810 (-0.11%)O275.780 H283.560 L272.620 C274.930 (-0.31%)O275.780 H283.560 L272.620 C274.930 (-0.31%)O274.910 H278.200 L273.220 C275.750 (+0.31%)O274.910 H278.200 L273.220 C275.750 (+0.31%)O275.720 H278.010 L270.780 C273.910 (-0.66%)O275.720 H278.010 L270.780 C273.910 (-0.66%)O273.970 H275.770 L267.890 C269.820 (-1.51%)O273.970 H275.770 L267.890 C269.820 (-1.51%)O269.500 H275.430 L268.170 C269.200 (-0.11%)O269.500 H275.430 L268.170 C269.200 (-0.11%)O269.080 H269.720 L265.100 C268.350 (-0.27%)O269.080 H269.720 L265.100 C268.350 (-0.27%)O268.350 H277.000 L268.040 C275.860 (+2.80%)O268.350 H277.000 L268.040 C275.860 (+2.80%)O275.960 H276.310 L269.370 C270.480 (-1.99%)O275.960 H276.310 L269.370 C270.480 (-1.99%)O270.480 H270.750 L263.640 C264.970 (-2.04%)O270.480 H270.750 L263.640 C264.970 (-2.04%)O264.920 H266.550 L259.700 C265.590 (+0.25%)O264.920 H266.550 L259.700 C265.590 (+0.25%)O265.700 H265.750 L257.220 C258.820 (-2.59%)O265.700 H265.750 L257.220 C258.820 (-2.59%)#1#5#9#13#17#21#25up bar (C≥O)down bar (C<O)MA(5) closeμ closedoji (~no body)biggest body
25 bars
Hourly volume (base units)
n=25 · Σ=302,440 · μ=12097.6 · σ=9126.8 · CV=0.75FADING -46% h/hcumulative energy &nearr; · 50% by h=709,29918,59727,89637,194μ = 1209818,534.423 · 49.8% peak18,534.423 · 49.8% peak28,395.88 · 76.3% peak28,395.88 · 76.3% peak10,245.413 · 27.5% peak10,245.413 · 27.5% peak37,194.0237,194.02 · 100.0% peak37,194.02 · 100.0% peak32,428.29 · 87.2% peak32,428.29 · 87.2% peak17,552.718 · 47.2% peak17,552.718 · 47.2% peak11,578.479 · 31.1% peak11,578.479 · 31.1% peak12,377.367 · 33.3% peak12,377.367 · 33.3% peak4,473.384 · 12.0% peak4,473.384 · 12.0% peak7,701.557 · 20.7% peak7,701.557 · 20.7% peak5,767.157 · 15.5% peak5,767.157 · 15.5% peak10,062.688 · 27.1% peak10,062.688 · 27.1% peak13,237.533 · 35.6% peak13,237.533 · 35.6% peak7,162.138 · 19.3% peak7,162.138 · 19.3% peak18,543.104 · 49.9% peak18,543.104 · 49.9% peak5,215.654 · 14.0% peak5,215.654 · 14.0% peak8,609.55 · 23.1% peak8,609.55 · 23.1% peak6,071.576 · 16.3% peak6,071.576 · 16.3% peak3,421.93 · 9.2% peak3,421.93 · 9.2% peak4,732.184 · 12.7% peak4,732.184 · 12.7% peak4,104.079 · 11.0% peak4,104.079 · 11.0% peak3,254.314 · 8.7% peak3,254.314 · 8.7% peak14,781.665 · 39.7% peak14,781.665 · 39.7% peak12,098.807 · 32.5% peak12,098.807 · 32.5% peak4,895.877 · 13.2% peak4,895.877 · 13.2% peak50%#1#5#9#13#17#21#25#1 peak#2-3> μactivequietμ linecum energy
Σ vol 302440 · peak 37194 · CV 0.75

§2 · Returns distribution (log-returns)

Histogram of rₜ = ln(pₜ/pₜ₋₁)
n=24 · 12 bins · μ=-0.0009 · σ=0.0159 · skew=0.39 (symmetric) · kurt=-0.33 (mesokurtic)54310 4-230.83bpbin -230.83bp · n=4 · 80.0% peakbin -230.83bp · n=4 · 80.0% peak 2-176.06bpbin -176.06bp · n=2 · 40.0% peakbin -176.06bp · n=2 · 40.0% peak 2-121.30bpbin -121.30bp · n=2 · 40.0% peakbin -121.30bp · n=2 · 40.0% peak 1-66.53bpbin -66.53bp · n=1 · 20.0% peakbin -66.53bp · n=1 · 20.0% peak 4-11.77bpbin -11.77bp · n=4 · 80.0% peakbin -11.77bp · n=4 · 80.0% peak 543.00bpbin 43.00bp · n=5 · 100.0% peakbin 43.00bp · n=5 · 100.0% peak 297.77bpbin 97.77bp · n=2 · 40.0% peakbin 97.77bp · n=2 · 40.0% peak 1152.53bpbin 152.53bp · n=1 · 20.0% peakbin 152.53bp · n=1 · 20.0% peak 1207.30bpbin 207.30bp · n=1 · 20.0% peakbin 207.30bp · n=1 · 20.0% peak 1262.06bpbin 262.06bp · n=1 · 20.0% peakbin 262.06bp · n=1 · 20.0% peak316.83bp 1371.59bpbin 371.59bp · n=1 · 20.0% peakbin 371.59bp · n=1 · 20.0% peakμΔ < 0 · loss barsΔ ≈ 0 · flatΔ > 0 · gain barsN(μ,σ²) referenceμ line · ±σ band shaded
n=24 · positive 11 · negative 13
Q-Q plot · standardised rₜ vs N(0,1)
n=24 · skew=0.60 · kurt=0.18 · near 21 / mid 3 / far 0 · OLS slope=1.00 intercept=-0.00APPROXIMATELY NORMALMILDLY HEAVY UPPERLOWER TAIL NORMAL-3σ-3σ-2σ-2σ-1σ-1σ+0σ+0σ+1σ+1σ+2σ+2σ+3σ+3σsample ↓marginal: sample bars + theoretical N(0,1) curve →theoretical Φ⁻¹(p) →↑ sample z-quantile|Δ| < 0.3σ · on the line|Δ| < 1σ · moderate|Δ| ≥ 1σ · outliery = x refOLS fit

§3 · Spot quote

Mark price
$258.825
Mid price
$258.825
24h change
-0.59%
Mark–mid spread
0.00 bps
Prev-day close
$260.37

§4 · Sample moments (prices)

Descriptive statistics · 5-number summary · shape diagnostics
SAMPLE MOMENTS · N=25APPROXIMATELY NORMAL · WELL-BEHAVED
μ MEAN266.2488$95% CI: [263.5877$, 268.9099$]
σ STD DEV6.7884$σ² = 46.082 · CV = 2.55%
med MEDIAN265.3300$Q₁ 262.4800$ · Q₃ 270.4800$
FIVE-NUMBER SUMMARY · BOX PLOTrange 24.7100$ · IQR 8.0000$ (1.349σ→9.1576$)
min 251.4200$Q₁ 262.4800$med 265.3300$Q₃ 270.4800$max 276.1300$μ
SKEWNESS · G₁-0.138approximately symmetric
−3−10+1+3
EXCESS KURTOSIS · G₂-0.818mesokurtic · normal-like
−30+2+4+6
μ ↔ medianμ > med · right-tailed|μ−med| / σ = 0.14
σ × 1.349 ↔ IQRconsistent with normalratio = 1.14
range ↔ σconcentrated (range < 4σ)range / σ = 3.64
μ = mean · σ = standard deviation · CV = coefficient of variation. Skew (G₁): >0 right-skewed. Kurt (G₂, excess): >0 leptokurtic. 95% CI = μ ± 1.96·SE.

§5 · Returns analytics (log-returns)

Risk-adjusted performance · log-returns
RETURNS · RISK-ADJUSTEDUNPROFITABLE · SR=-6.33
μᵣ MEAN / h-0.109469%drift is negative per h · |μ|/σ = 0.068
σᵣ STD / h1.618110%σ²ᵣ = 2.618×10⁻⁴ · CV = 14.78×
σ ANNUALISED151.45%/yrscaled by √8760 (hourly→yearly) · 1.618%/h base
RISK-ADJUSTED PERFORMANCEhigher = better edge per unit risk
SHARPE (annualised)-6.33negative edge
-2-10+1+2+3+4
SORTINO (annualised)-6.87downside drag
-2-10+1+2+3+4
CALMAR (return / max-DD)-100.00drawdown overwhelms returns
-20+2+4+6
RETURN-DISTRIBUTION SHAPE|skew| < 0.5 ≈ symmetric · |kurt| < 1 ≈ mesokurtic
SKEWNESS · G₁0.65right-skewed · heavy positive tail
-3-10+1+3
EXCESS KURTOSIS · G₂0.52mesokurtic · normal-like tails
-30+2+4+6
SORTINO vs SHARPEdownside vol < total vol · favourableSoR / SR = 1.09
CALMAR · DD CONTROLdrawdown > returns · adverseCR = -100.00
EXPECTED EDGE-958.95%/yr driftμ × 8760 = annualised expectation
rₜ = ln(pₜ/pₜ₋₁). σ × √8760 = annualised. Sharpe = μ/σ scaled; Sortino uses downside-only vol; Calmar = annual return / max drawdown.

§6 · Risk metrics

Tail risk + drawdown · downside diagnostics
TAIL & DRAWDOWN RISKHIGH · 95% VaR 2.15%
VaR₉₅ (h)2.150%5% prob of larger adverse h move
VaR₉₉ (h)2.483%1% prob · extreme-tail threshold
ES₉₅ (CVaR)2.368%expected loss given 5% tail event
MAX DRAWDOWN6.27%12h from peak to trough
TAIL-RISK LADDER (h losses)larger negative = worse · markers show severity
0 · no lossVaR₉₅−2.150%VaR₉₉−2.483%ES₉₅−2.368%worst tail ←→ zero loss
MAX DRAWDOWN PROFILEsignificant drawdown · 12h duration
PEAK27613.00$
−6.27% drawdown over 12h
25882.00$TROUGH
ES / VaR · TAIL THICKNESSmild tail heaviness|ES₉₅| / |VaR₉₅| = 1.10× (normal ≈ 1.25)
VaR₉₉ / VaR₉₅ · CONCENTRATIONuniform tailratio = 1.16× (normal ≈ 1.41)
DRAWDOWN · CAPITAL DURATIONsignificant drawdownrecovery needed: +6.69% (compounding)
VaR = quantile loss · ES (CVaR) = expected loss conditional on tail · DD = peak-to-trough decline. Under normality ES₉₅/VaR₉₅ ≈ 1.25; ratio > 1.5 ⇒ fat-tail regime.

§7 · Technicals

RSI(14)
40.3 · neutral
Bollinger %B
0.209 · within band
Bollinger upper
$281.4807
Bollinger MA
$267.1590
Bollinger lower
$252.8373

§8 · Time-series structure

Regime & autocorrelation diagnostics
TIME-SERIES STRUCTUREREGIME: MARTINGALE · UNPREDICTABLE
ρ(1) AUTOCORR+0.074within white-noise band
ρ(2) AUTOCORR-0.048lag-2 not significant
H · HURST EXPONENT1.017strongly persistent
OLS TREND · t-STAT+2.353significant @ α=0.05
HURST EXPONENT [0, 1]strongly persistent · H = 1.017
H = 1.017STRONGLY PERSISTENT
0
anti-persistent0.45
mean-reverting0.5
random walk0.55
persistent1
strongly trending
AUTOCORRELATION FUNCTION · ρ(k) for k=1..5WHITE NOISE · no significant lags
k=1+0.074k=2-0.048k=3+0.011k=4-0.052k=5+0.0760+1−1+0.41−0.41+ momentum (ρ > +0.41)− reversal (ρ < −0.41)noise (within band)±2/√n threshold
OLS TREND · t-STAT · [-5, +5]SIGNIFICANT @ 5% (|t|=2.35)
−5 reject−1.960 retain H₀+1.96+5 reject
REGIME CLASSIFICATIONMARTINGALE · UNPREDICTABLEfrom Hurst + ρ(1) joint diagnosis
PREDICTABILITY · score 1.00very high · strong structure|ρ(1)| + 2·|H − 0.5| heuristic
TREND SIGNIFICANCESIGNIFICANT @ 5% (|t|=2.35)α=0.05 critical |t|=1.96 · α=0.01 |t|=2.58
ρ(k) = lag-k sample autocorrelation · H = R/S Hurst exponent · t = OLS-trend t-statistic. Significance bands at ±2/√n approximate the 95% white-noise envelope. α=0.05 critical |t|=1.96; α=0.01 |t|=2.58.

§9 · Microstructure

24h volume (USD)
$77.71M
Open interest (USD)
$51.45M
Vol / OI (turnover)
1.51x
1h funding
0.001250%
Funding (annualised)
+10.95%/yr

§10 · Position sizing

Continuous Kelly (μ/σ²)
-4.181× leverage · optimal log-utility leverage
Half-Kelly
-2.090× · industry-standard conservative
Quarter-Kelly
-1.045×

§11 · Hourly return heatmap

24-hour signed Δln-r grid · green = up · red = down
HOURLY RETURN HEATMAP · n=24 bars · best 3.99% · worst -2.58% · typical |Δ| 1.23%MILD BEARISH -2.63%BEST+3.99%02hWORST-2.58%14hTYPICAL |Δ|1.23%mean absoluteCUMULATIVE-2.63%Σ signed ΔSTREAK↘ 1down-runASIA · 00-08 UTCμ +0.32% · Σ +2.56%EUROPE · 08-16 UTCμ -0.65% · Σ -5.16%US · 16-24 UTCμ -0.00% · Σ -0.03%CUMULATIVE Δ PATH · final -2.63%+3.85%-5.53%-1.00% · 15h-1.00% · 15h-1.00%15h0.73% · 16h0.73% · 16h0.73%16h-0.97% · 17h-0.97% · 17h-0.97%17h-2.15% · 18h-2.15% · 18h-2.15%18h-2.13% · 19h-2.13% · 19h-2.13%19h1.85% · 20h1.85% · 20h1.85%20h1.68% · 21h1.68% · 21h1.68%21h0.77% · 22h0.77% · 22h0.77%22h0.19% · 23h0.19% · 23h0.19%23h0.67% · 00h0.67% · 00h0.67%00h0.21% · 01h0.21% · 01h0.21%01h3.99% · 02h3.99% · 02h3.99%02h★ BEST-0.12% · 03h-0.12% · 03h-0.12%03h-0.32% · 04h-0.32% · 04h-0.32%04h0.30% · 05h0.30% · 05h0.30%05h-0.67% · 06h-0.67% · 06h-0.67%06h-1.50% · 07h-1.50% · 07h-1.50%07h-0.23% · 08h-0.23% · 08h-0.23%08h-0.32% · 09h-0.32% · 09h-0.32%09h2.76% · 10h2.76% · 10h2.76%10h-1.97% · 11h-1.97% · 11h-1.97%11h-2.06% · 12h-2.06% · 12h-2.06%12h0.23% · 13h0.23% · 13h0.23%13h-2.58% · 14h-2.58% · 14h-2.58%14h▼ WORSTTIME PATTERNAsia-led (+2.56%)RUNSup max 7 · down max 4BREADTH46% up · 54% down
11 up bars · 13 down · best 3.99% · worst -2.58% · typical |Δ| 1.226%

§12 · Equity curve & underwater drawdown

Cumulative compounded return + running peak-to-trough
EQUITY & DRAWDOWN ANALYSIS · n=25 barsLOSS WITH MODERATE DD (-2.89%)FINAL-2.89%MAX DD-6.39%RECOVERYONGOING · 12 barsMAX RUN-UP+3.74%UNDERWATER23/25 (92%)STREAK↘ 1EQUITY CURVE · end 0.9711 · peak 1.0374 · range [0.9457, 1.0374]1.03740.9457break-even = 1★ PEAK 1.0374UNDERWATER DRAWDOWN · max -6.39% · significant0%-6.39%▼ TROUGH -6.39%TOP DRAWDOWN PERIODS · 2 total#1 -6.39%bar 14-25 · 12 bars · ONGOING#2 -5.43%bar 2-12 · 11 bars · recoveredDD SEVERITYsignificant (max -6.39%)RECOVERYongoing · 12 barsTIME UNDER WATER92% of session · 23/25 bars
final equity 0.9711 (-2.89%) · max DD -6.39% · time-under-water 23/25 bars

§13 · Rolling-window statistics (w = 6 bars)

Rolling annualised Sharpe ratio · green positive · red negative
n=19 · +10 / −9 (53% positive) · μ=7.98 · σ=48.28MIXED EDGELAST -30.69 (-0.80σ vs μ)117.5458.770.00-58.77-117.54μ = 7.98-35.82-35.82-8.46-8.46-8.12-8.121.861.8632.9732.97117.54117.5481.2281.2258.6458.6444.8544.8546.0546.0530.8830.8813.6613.66-64.45-64.45-71.24-71.243.633.63-18.16-18.16-28.66-28.66-13.99-13.99-30.69-30.69v > 0 · positivev < 0 · negativeμ mean lineμ ± σ bandlatest bar (outlined)
latest -30.686 · range [-71.24, 117.54] · μ 7.984 · positive Sharpe = excess-return-per-risk earned by buying-and-holding through this window
Rolling annualised volatility (%)
n=19 · μ=142.4810 · σ=39.5001 · range [56.1922, 187.0880] · R²=0.000▲ RISING +24.75%σ EXTREME 27.72%LAST 187.0880187.0880154.3641121.640188.916256.1922μ = 142.4810max 187.0880min 56.1922dataMA(3)OLS R²=0.00μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
latest 187.09% · range [56.19%, 187.09%] · μ 142.48% · σ̂ scaled to annualised (×√8760)
Rolling lag-1 autocorrelation ρ(1)
n=19 · +6 / −13 (32% positive) · μ=-0.052 · σ=0.248MEAN-REVERSIONLAST -0.223 (-0.69σ vs μ)0.4260.2130.000-0.213-0.426μ = -0.052-0.145-0.1450.2720.2720.4170.4170.3200.320-0.172-0.1720.4100.410-0.127-0.127-0.426-0.426-0.276-0.276-0.243-0.243-0.162-0.1620.0240.024-0.007-0.007-0.022-0.0220.0480.048-0.346-0.346-0.123-0.123-0.203-0.203-0.223-0.223v > 0 · positivev < 0 · negativeμ mean lineμ ± σ bandlatest bar (outlined)
latest -0.223 · |ρ| > 0.3 ⇒ regime with persistence (ρ > 0) or reversal (ρ < 0) · |ρ| ≤ 0.1 = consistent with random walk

§14 · Hypothesis tests (α = 0.05)

Formal inference at 5% significance
ALL TESTS PASS · data behaves as nominal0 reject·6 pass·α = 0.05
𝒩

Jarque-Bera

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Δln-r ~ Normal(μ, σ²)

STATISTIC
1.9355
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.3799
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainednormality not rejected
ρ

Ljung-Box(h=5)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: No serial autocorrelation up to lag 5

STATISTIC
0.4887
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.9906
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedconsistent with white noise
Ψ

Dickey-Fuller (τ_μ)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: p has a unit root (non-stationary)

STATISTIC
-1.3467
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.6060
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedrandom-walk behaviour (crit ≈ -2.86)
±

Wald-Wolfowitz runs

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Sign sequence of Δ is random

STATISTIC
-0.8059
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.4203
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedsigns appear random (11 runs)
χ

KPSS (μ stationarity)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: p IS level-stationary

STATISTIC
0.3603
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.0943
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedstationary not rejected (crit 0.463)
χ

Variance ratio q=3

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Δln-r is a random walk · VR = 1

STATISTIC
0.2953
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.7678
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedVR 1.090 ≈ 1 (RW behaviour)
Each row states an explicit null H₀, the test statistic, an approximated p-value, and the decision. REJECT means evidence against H₀. KPSS complements ADF (rejecting both ⇒ ambiguous; rejecting one ⇒ clean verdict).

§15 · Spectral analysis (DFT periodogram)

Power spectrum of Δln-r · ‖X̂(k)‖²/n
n=12 bins · noise floor μ=2.62e-4 · top T=24.00h (19.1%) · top-3 cover 51.0%1 SIGNIFICANT CYCLEcumulative energy ↗ (1 bin above 2× noise)6.0e-44.5e-43.0e-41.5e-40.0e+0μ noise floor2× noise (significance)period 24.0 · power 6.02e-4 · 19.1% energyperiod 24.0 · power 6.02e-4 · 19.1% energyperiod 12.0 · power 1.57e-4 · 5.0% energyperiod 12.0 · power 1.57e-4 · 5.0% energyperiod 8.0 · power 5.03e-5 · 1.6% energyperiod 8.0 · power 5.03e-5 · 1.6% energyperiod 6.0 · power 4.91e-4 · 15.6% energyperiod 6.0 · power 4.91e-4 · 15.6% energyperiod 4.8 · power 2.54e-4 · 8.1% energyperiod 4.8 · power 2.54e-4 · 8.1% energyperiod 4.0 · power 2.54e-4 · 8.1% energyperiod 4.0 · power 2.54e-4 · 8.1% energyperiod 3.4 · power 3.61e-4 · 11.5% energyperiod 3.4 · power 3.61e-4 · 11.5% energyperiod 3.0 · power 8.91e-5 · 2.8% energyperiod 3.0 · power 8.91e-5 · 2.8% energyperiod 2.7 · power 5.12e-4 · 16.3% energyperiod 2.7 · power 5.12e-4 · 16.3% energyperiod 2.4 · power 3.76e-5 · 1.2% energyperiod 2.4 · power 3.76e-5 · 1.2% energyperiod 2.2 · power 6.35e-5 · 2.0% energyperiod 2.2 · power 6.35e-5 · 2.0% energyperiod 2.0 · power 2.78e-4 · 8.8% energyperiod 2.0 · power 2.78e-4 · 8.8% energy50% by T=4.0h#1 dominantT=24.00h#2T=2.67h#3T=6.00hT=2hT=3hT=4hT=6hT=8hT=12hT=16hT=24h← shorter cycle (high freq · Nyquist=½) · period T (bars per cycle) · longer cycle (low freq · 1/n) →#1 dominant#2 peak#3 peak> 2× noisenoiseμ floor2μ sig.cum energy
dominant period ≈ 24.00h (freq 0.042) · concentrates 19.1% of total energy · Σ|X̂|²/n = 3.150e-3

▸ Depth section using sovereign-store price series (5000 bars · effective 5257847 bars/year) — annualisation reflects native polling cadence, not upstream timeframes.

§16 · NOSTRADAMUS continuous quant — perp leverage & bootstrap MC

Continuous-price extension of the prediction-market quant module. Kelly growth on observed returns (Merton μ/σ² parametric vs argmax empirical), Monte-Carlo equity fan bootstrapped from the historical return distribution at quarter-Kelly leverage, and an annualized return decomposition. Sweep parameters in the simulator.

§17 · Continuous Kelly

Continuous-Kelly growth · g(f) = E[ln(1 + f·r)]
NO LONG EDGE · μ -0.001% per barparametric μ/σ² short edge (μ<0) · μ -0.001% · σ 0.06%
μ per barmean
-0.001%
σ per barvol
0.06%
Empirical f★argmax g(f)
0.00×
from observed distribution
Parametric f★μ/σ²
-33.28×
Merton continuous-time
Half-Kelly½ f★
0.00×
~⅔ of full growth, half the variance
Quarter-Kelly¼ f★
0.00×
industry default — survives model error
-0.01%0.02%0.04%0.07%0.10%0.0×1.6×3.2×4.8×6.4×8.0×leverage fraction fexpected log-growth per bar
g(f) empiricalf★ argmaxparametric f★
Maximum expected log-growth from leveraging the historical return distribution. Empirical f★ argmaxes the sample expectation; parametric f★ = μ/σ² is Merton's continuous-time optimum.

§18 · MC equity fan

Bootstrapped equity fan at 0.10× leverage
Median CAGR/bar -0.000% · annualized Sharpe -52.96400 paths × 720 bars · leverage 0.10× · bootstrap from 4999 observed returns
Sharpe / barμ/σ
-0.023
annualized -52.96
μ per barafter L
-0.000%
σ per barafter L
0.01%
VaR 95%5%
0.01%
per-bar worst-case
CVaR 95%ES
0.02%
mean tail loss
Max DD (median)MDD
-0.1%
0.95×0.97×0.99×1.01×1.03×1.05×0120240360480600720startbar #equity multiple
median25/75 band5/95 band
Median path with 25/75 and 5/95 percentile bands across 400 simulated careers. Bars resample with replacement from the observed return distribution — preserves fat tails the parametric model misses.

§19 · Annualized breakdown

Annualized return components
APR -1000% · APY -100% · Sharpe -48.87σ ann 147% · Sortino -44.51 · n 4999 · ⚠ capped (n=4999 too small to support 8760-bar projection)
-5864%-4656%-3448%-2240%-1032%176%-1000.0%APR (simple)-100.0%APY (compound)146.8%Ann. vol σ-4886.6%Sharpe (ann)-4451.4%Sortino (ann)
Simple APR vs compounded APY · annualized volatility · risk-adjusted Sharpe and Sortino. All scaled by √(periods/yr).

§20 · GARCH(1,1) volatility band

GARCH(1,1) · conditional vol envelope (±2σ)
GARCH persistence α+β = 0.980· σ̂ₜ = 1.002% · long-run σ = 2.236%
247.202255.480263.757272.035280.313288.591t-4999t-4166t-3333t-2500t-1666t-833t-0

Persistence near 1 ⇒ vol clusters strongly (slow mean reversion). Long-run σ is the unconditional target the conditional vol orbits. The ±2σ band reflects time-varying scale, unlike a flat-vol band.

Time-varying volatility band fitted to the price series. Persistence α+β > 0.98 means vol shocks decay slowly — recent moves stay relevant.

§∞ · Provenance & attestation

Upstream
api.hyperliquid.xyz
Snapshot fetched
2026-06-14 14:31:13 UTC
Snapshot age
1.4s
History points
25 hourly closes
Page rendered
2026-06-14 14:31:15 UTC
Storage policy
no persistence — fetched on every request
SHA-256 attestation
3f7ce0ab05ef20184610918f030c6c97c57b55c9800b39de3797fdcd1dc78933 · deterministic hash of the source snapshot — proves this page was rendered from this exact data
Open data licence
CC0 / public domain · free to mirror, syndicate, analyse

§∞-2 · Related markets · explore more

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Also see: /arb opportunities · RSS feed

Market depth

▸ live order book · Hyperliquid perp
Depth within 1bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Depth within 5bp
$20.12K
bid $14.12K · ask $6.00K
Depth within 10bp
$121.43K
bid $91.48K · ask $29.95K
Depth within 50bp
$155.21K
bid $99.42K · ask $55.79K
Mid price
258.825000
(best bid + best ask) / 2
Spread
2.7bp
(bestAsk − bestBid) / mid
Imbalance (whole book)
+0.282
bid-heavy
Imbalance (top-5)
-0.021
ask-heavy top-of-book

Slippage scenarios

▸ live book walk · Hyperliquid perp

Simulating a market order at three notionals against the live book. Slippage = avg execution price vs. mid, in basis points. Worst fill = price of the deepest level touched. Live JSON: /api/asset/hl-TAO/slippage?size=10000&side=buy

SideNotionalAvg fillSlippageWorst fillLevelsStatus
BUY$1.00K258.913.14bp258.944FILLED
BUY$10.00K258.975.44bp259.018FILLED
BUY$100.00K259.079.35bp259.1620PARTIAL
SELL$1.00K258.791.35bp258.791FILLED
SELL$10.00K258.753.00bp258.716FILLED
SELL$100.00K258.627.80bp258.5420PARTIAL

Funding carry

▸ LONGS PAY · shorts receive
Hourly funding
+1.250e-5
0.00125% / hr
Annualised APR
10.958%
hourly · 24 · 365.25
Long: days to 1% carry
33.3d
longs pay
Short: days to 1% carry
33.3d
shorts receive
SideDirectionAnnualised carryDays → 1%Days → 10%
LONGPAY-10.958%33.3d333.3d
SHORTRECEIVE10.958%33.3d333.3d

/api/asset/hl-TAO/carry · same metrics, JSON

Volume profile

▸ real volume · Hyperliquid candlesstep $ 1 · 25 records
Price binBarsVolumeDistribution
$276.00–$277.001$13.24K
$275.00–$276.003$16.48K
$274.00–$275.001$18.54K
$273.00–$274.001$8.61K
$270.00–$271.001$3.25K
$269.00–$270.002$9.49K
$268.00–$269.001$4.73K
$265.00–$266.00★4$50.94K
$264.00–$265.002$20.55K
$263.00–$264.001$28.40K
$262.00–$263.003$49.37K
$260.00–$261.001$12.38K
$258.00–$259.001$4.90K
$256.00–$257.002$44.01K
$251.00–$252.001$17.55K

★ POC = Point of Control (highest-volume bin). Live JSON: /api/asset/hl-TAO/volprofile?priceStep=1

Order flow

▸ ASK-LEAN · -0.318 · Hyperliquid candles
Bars (buy / sell)
11 / 13
1 unclassified
Buy weight
$96.86K
real volume
Sell weight
$187.04K
real volume
Net delta
$90.18K
sellers net
Imbalance
-31.76%
(buy − sell) / (buy + sell)
Toxicity (VPIN)
31.8%
two-sided / balanced
Impact (|Δp|/vol)
—
needs real volume

Sparkline = cumulative delta over the 25-record window./api/asset/hl-TAO/flow?rollingWindow=30

Cascade clusters

▸ DOWN · 4 found · deepest 6.18% · Hyperliquid candles

Price-only proxy for forced-unwind clusters. No exchange liquidation feed is wired — read each row as a candidate event, not a confirmed liquidation.

#WindowDurationPeak → TroughDrawdownBars
#12026-06-14 11:00:00Z3.0h275.86→258.826.177%4
#22026-06-13 17:00:00Z3.0h265.71→251.425.378%4
#32026-06-14 06:00:00Z3.0h275.81→268.352.705%4

/api/asset/hl-TAO/cascades?windowMs=10800000&minDrawdownPct=0.005 · full list + parameters in JSON

Risk metrics

▸ sovereign store · 5,000 barsperiods/year ≈ 5.26M
Realized vol (annualised)
146.81%
σ per bar = 0.000640
Mean return (annualised)
-7174.14%
μ per bar = -0.000014
Sharpe (rf=0)
-48.87
annualised; risk-free assumed zero
Max drawdown
7.23%
peak 277.47 → trough 257.40 over 4920 bars

/api/asset/hl-TAO/risk · same metrics, JSON