HYPERLIQUID · PERPETUAL FUTURES

STBL

STBL-USD perpetual · 24/7 trading on Hyperliquid

▸ Advanced metrics · M2M bundle

hyperliquid · perp-stbl · fresh · feed 0s old
24h sparkline · 60 pts▲ 4.65%
realized vol (ann.)
102.91%
max drawdown
1.22%
sharpe
3.27
ulcer index
0.63%
RMS drawdown
pain index
0.56%
mean drawdown
mod. VaR 95%
0.01%
Cornish-Fisher
martin ratio
530.84
ret / ulcer
CDaR 95%
1.07%
cond. drawdown
gain/pain
1.01
Σgain / Σ|loss|
sterling
314.99
ret / CDaR
omega (θ=0)
1.01
upside/downside
roll spread
0.0 bps
implied (price-only)
bars used
2000
store
spread
—
24h Δ
4.65%
flow lean
—
carry
longs_pay
10.95%
signalNEUTRALconfidence 33%
  • 24h change +4.65%
  • funding: longs pay — perp shorts get paid to wait
  • mark rich vs HL oracle by 11.7bps — fade/short bias
Same bundle via M2M API: /api/m2m/hl-STBL/bundle · venue execution: hyperliquid →
LIVEPOLL0SRCFRESH79ms⏱--:--:-- UTC8NEXT8.0sUP0s--:--HIST0/30
▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC FRESH·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC FRESH·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·
MARK · live
$0.027
24h Δ · live
4.65%
24h vol · live
$0.4M
STBL · live 24h price
n=25 · μ=0.0262 · σ=0.0005 · range [0.0253, 0.0272] · R²=0.099▲ RISING +2.09%σ NORMAL 1.96%LAST 0.02650.02720.02670.02620.02580.0253μ = 0.0262max 0.0272min 0.0253dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.10μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxminlive endpoint
25 closes · last $0.03
Funding direction · live
Long fee 48.1%Short fee 51.9%SHORT FEE51.9%
Σ = 0.0%
Σ-sides total = 0.00% (100.00pp arb gap)
H(p) entropy = 0.999 / 1.00 bits (100%) · max uncertainty (~50/50)
Long fee
48.1%▬ +0.00pp
Short fee
51.9%▬ +0.00pp
1h funding 0.001250% · longs pay
Hourly contract volume · live
n=25 · Σ=14,020,257 · μ=560810.3 · σ=695364.3 · CV=1.24BURSTY · concentratedcumulative energy ↗ · 50% by h=180853,2801,706,5602,559,8393,413,119μ = 5608103,413,11950%h1h5h9h13h17h21h25#1 peak#2-3> μactivequietμ linecum energy
peak 3413119 contracts
Live numerics · pulse on poll
LIVE NUMERICS9 metrics·POLL 0
⏱snapshot age
79ms
$mark $
$0.0266
$mid $
$0.0266
◉prev-day close
$0.0254
Δ24h Δ %
+4.645%
$24h vol $
$363.17k
◐open interest $
$2.45M
%funding (1h)
0.001250%
%funding (yr)
+10.95%/yr

§1 · 24h time-series

Close price · hourly
n=25 · μ=0.0262 · σ=0.0005 · range [0.0253, 0.0272] · R²=0.099▲ RISING +2.09%σ NORMAL 1.96%LAST 0.02650.02720.02670.02620.02580.0253μ = 0.0262max 0.0272min 0.0253dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.10μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
mark $0.0266 · 24h 4.65% · range $[0.0253, 0.0272]
OHLC candles · hourly
n=25 · up 12 · down 13 (48% up) · range [0.0252, 0.0280] · σ=0.0005 · CV=0.02 · bodyµ=41%BULLISH +4.20%CLOSE 0.0265 vs OPEN 0.0255 (+4.20%)&#9650; CLOSE 0.02650.02800.02730.02660.02590.0252μ close = 0.0262O0.025 H0.027 L0.025 C0.026 (+2.06%)O0.025 H0.027 L0.025 C0.026 (+2.06%)O0.026 H0.027 L0.026 C0.026 (+1.53%)O0.026 H0.027 L0.026 C0.026 (+1.53%)O0.026 H0.027 L0.026 C0.026 (-1.03%)O0.026 H0.027 L0.026 C0.026 (-1.03%)O0.026 H0.026 L0.026 C0.026 (-0.48%)O0.026 H0.026 L0.026 C0.026 (-0.48%)O0.026 H0.026 L0.026 C0.026 (+0.18%)O0.026 H0.026 L0.026 C0.026 (+0.18%)O0.026 H0.027 L0.026 C0.026 (+0.20%)O0.026 H0.027 L0.026 C0.026 (+0.20%)O0.026 H0.026 L0.026 C0.026 (-0.27%)O0.026 H0.026 L0.026 C0.026 (-0.27%)O0.026 H0.027 L0.026 C0.027 (+0.85%)O0.026 H0.027 L0.026 C0.027 (+0.85%)O0.027 H0.027 L0.026 C0.026 (-2.93%)O0.027 H0.027 L0.026 C0.026 (-2.93%)O0.026 H0.026 L0.026 C0.026 (-0.05%)O0.026 H0.026 L0.026 C0.026 (-0.05%)O0.026 H0.026 L0.026 C0.026 (+0.86%)O0.026 H0.026 L0.026 C0.026 (+0.86%)O0.026 H0.026 L0.026 C0.026 (+0.04%)O0.026 H0.026 L0.026 C0.026 (+0.04%)O0.026 H0.026 L0.025 C0.026 (-1.96%)O0.026 H0.026 L0.025 C0.026 (-1.96%)O0.025 H0.026 L0.025 C0.026 (+0.41%)O0.025 H0.026 L0.025 C0.026 (+0.41%)O0.026 H0.026 L0.025 C0.025 (-0.48%)O0.026 H0.026 L0.025 C0.025 (-0.48%)O0.025 H0.025 L0.025 C0.025 (+0.08%)O0.025 H0.025 L0.025 C0.025 (+0.08%)O0.025 H0.026 L0.025 C0.025 (-0.62%)O0.025 H0.026 L0.025 C0.025 (-0.62%)7.4%O0.025 H0.028 L0.025 C0.027 (+7.42%)O0.025 H0.028 L0.025 C0.027 (+7.42%)O0.027 H0.027 L0.026 C0.027 (-0.76%)O0.027 H0.027 L0.026 C0.027 (-0.76%)O0.027 H0.027 L0.027 C0.027 (-0.61%)O0.027 H0.027 L0.027 C0.027 (-0.61%)O0.027 H0.027 L0.027 C0.027 (-0.36%)O0.027 H0.027 L0.027 C0.027 (-0.36%)O0.027 H0.027 L0.026 C0.027 (+0.46%)O0.027 H0.027 L0.026 C0.027 (+0.46%)O0.027 H0.027 L0.026 C0.027 (-0.34%)O0.027 H0.027 L0.026 C0.027 (-0.34%)O0.027 H0.027 L0.026 C0.027 (+0.02%)O0.027 H0.027 L0.026 C0.027 (+0.02%)O0.027 H0.027 L0.027 C0.027 (-0.78%)O0.027 H0.027 L0.027 C0.027 (-0.78%)#1#5#9#13#17#21#25up bar (C≥O)down bar (C<O)MA(5) closeμ closedoji (~no body)biggest body
25 bars
Hourly volume (base units)
n=25 · Σ=14,020,257 · μ=560810.3 · σ=695364.3 · CV=1.24BURSTY · concentratedcumulative energy &nearr; · 50% by h=180853,2801,706,5602,559,8393,413,119μ = 5608101,037,381 · 30.4% peak1,037,381 · 30.4% peak782,367 · 22.9% peak782,367 · 22.9% peak603,727 · 17.7% peak603,727 · 17.7% peak338,815 · 9.9% peak338,815 · 9.9% peak208,578 · 6.1% peak208,578 · 6.1% peak642,589 · 18.8% peak642,589 · 18.8% peak510,613 · 15.0% peak510,613 · 15.0% peak219,990 · 6.4% peak219,990 · 6.4% peak197,425 · 5.8% peak197,425 · 5.8% peak231,081 · 6.8% peak231,081 · 6.8% peak349,140 · 10.2% peak349,140 · 10.2% peak342,744 · 10.0% peak342,744 · 10.0% peak651,138 · 19.1% peak651,138 · 19.1% peak166,802 · 4.9% peak166,802 · 4.9% peak84,468 · 2.5% peak84,468 · 2.5% peak194,251 · 5.7% peak194,251 · 5.7% peak321,691 · 9.4% peak321,691 · 9.4% peak3,413,1193,413,119 · 100.0% peak3,413,119 · 100.0% peak1,817,158 · 53.2% peak1,817,158 · 53.2% peak414,322 · 12.1% peak414,322 · 12.1% peak288,036 · 8.4% peak288,036 · 8.4% peak315,269 · 9.2% peak315,269 · 9.2% peak361,815 · 10.6% peak361,815 · 10.6% peak379,715 · 11.1% peak379,715 · 11.1% peak148,023 · 4.3% peak148,023 · 4.3% peak50%#1#5#9#13#17#21#25#1 peak#2-3> μactivequietμ linecum energy
Σ vol 14020257 · peak 3413119 · CV 1.24

§2 · Returns distribution (log-returns)

Histogram of rₜ = ln(pₜ/pₜ₋₁)
n=24 · 12 bins · μ=0.0002 · σ=0.0163 · skew=2.75 (right-skewed) · kurt=9.50 (leptokurtic (fat tails))118630 1-250.74bpbin -250.74bp · n=1 · 9.1% peakbin -250.74bp · n=1 · 9.1% peak 1-166.50bpbin -166.50bp · n=1 · 9.1% peakbin -166.50bp · n=1 · 9.1% peak 7-82.26bpbin -82.26bp · n=7 · 63.6% peakbin -82.26bp · n=7 · 63.6% peak 111.98bpbin 1.98bp · n=11 · 100.0% peakbin 1.98bp · n=11 · 100.0% peak 286.22bpbin 86.22bp · n=2 · 18.2% peakbin 86.22bp · n=2 · 18.2% peak 1170.46bpbin 170.46bp · n=1 · 9.1% peakbin 170.46bp · n=1 · 9.1% peak254.70bp338.95bp423.19bp507.43bp591.67bp 1675.91bpbin 675.91bp · n=1 · 9.1% peakbin 675.91bp · n=1 · 9.1% peakμΔ < 0 · loss barsΔ ≈ 0 · flatΔ > 0 · gain barsN(μ,σ²) referenceμ line · ±σ band shaded
n=24 · positive 9 · negative 15
Q-Q plot · standardised rₜ vs N(0,1)
n=24 · skew=2.57 · kurt=8.97 · near 8 / mid 15 / far 1 · OLS slope=0.85 intercept=-0.00LEPTOKURTIC — FAT TAILSUPPER TAIL NORMALLOWER TAIL NORMAL-3σ-3σ-2σ-2σ-1σ-1σ+0σ+0σ+1σ+1σ+2σ+2σ+3σ+3σΔ=+2.04σsample ↓marginal: sample bars + theoretical N(0,1) curve →theoretical Φ⁻¹(p) →↑ sample z-quantile|Δ| < 0.3σ · on the line|Δ| < 1σ · moderate|Δ| ≥ 1σ · outliery = x refOLS fit

§3 · Spot quote

Mark price
$0.0266
Mid price
$0.0266
24h change
+4.65%
Mark–mid spread
0.00 bps
Prev-day close
$0.0254

§4 · Sample moments (prices)

Descriptive statistics · 5-number summary · shape diagnostics
SAMPLE MOMENTS · N=25PLATYKURTIC · THIN TAILS (G₂=-1.13)
μ MEAN0.0262$95% CI: [0.0260$, 0.0264$]
σ STD DEV0.0005$σ² = 0.003×10⁻⁴ · CV = 1.96%
med MEDIAN0.0262$Q₁ 0.0258$ · Q₃ 0.0266$
FIVE-NUMBER SUMMARY · BOX PLOTrange 0.0019$ · IQR 0.0008$ (1.349σ→0.0007$)
min 0.0253$Q₁ 0.0258$med 0.0262$Q₃ 0.0266$max 0.0272$μ
SKEWNESS · G₁-0.080approximately symmetric
−3−10+1+3
EXCESS KURTOSIS · G₂-1.130platykurtic · thin tails
−30+2+4+6
μ ↔ median≈ equal · symmetric|μ−med| / σ = 0.03
σ × 1.349 ↔ IQRconsistent with normalratio = 0.85
range ↔ σconcentrated (range < 4σ)range / σ = 3.66
μ = mean · σ = standard deviation · CV = coefficient of variation. Skew (G₁): >0 right-skewed. Kurt (G₂, excess): >0 leptokurtic. 95% CI = μ ± 1.96·SE.

§5 · Returns analytics (log-returns)

Risk-adjusted performance · log-returns
RETURNS · RISK-ADJUSTEDEXCEPTIONAL EDGE · SR=4.53
μᵣ MEAN / h+0.086120%drift is positive per h · |μ|/σ = 0.048
σᵣ STD / h1.778838%σ²ᵣ = 3.164×10⁻⁴ · CV = 20.66×
σ ANNUALISED166.49%/yrscaled by √8760 (hourly→yearly) · 1.779%/h base
RISK-ADJUSTED PERFORMANCEhigher = better edge per unit risk
SHARPE (annualised)4.53excellent · top-decile
-2-10+1+2+3+4
SORTINO (annualised)7.89strong downside-adjusted
-2-10+1+2+3+4
CALMAR (return / max-DD)100.00exceptional DD control
-20+2+4+6
RETURN-DISTRIBUTION SHAPE|skew| < 0.5 ≈ symmetric · |kurt| < 1 ≈ mesokurtic
SKEWNESS · G₁2.74right-skewed · heavy positive tail
-3-10+1+3
EXCESS KURTOSIS · G₂11.46leptokurtic · fat tails
-30+2+4+6
SORTINO vs SHARPEdownside vol < total vol · favourableSoR / SR = 1.74
CALMAR · DD CONTROLdrawdown control exceptionalCR = 100.00
EXPECTED EDGE+754.41%/yr driftμ × 8760 = annualised expectation
rₜ = ln(pₜ/pₜ₋₁). σ × √8760 = annualised. Sharpe = μ/σ scaled; Sortino uses downside-only vol; Calmar = annual return / max drawdown.

§6 · Risk metrics

Tail risk + drawdown · downside diagnostics
TAIL & DRAWDOWN RISKHIGH · 95% VaR 1.71%
VaR₉₅ (h)1.706%5% prob of larger adverse h move
VaR₉₉ (h)2.672%1% prob · extreme-tail threshold
ES₉₅ (CVaR)2.371%expected loss given 5% tail event
MAX DRAWDOWN4.75%9h from peak to trough
TAIL-RISK LADDER (h losses)larger negative = worse · markers show severity
0 · no lossVaR₉₅−1.706%VaR₉₉−2.672%ES₉₅−2.371%worst tail ←→ zero loss
MAX DRAWDOWN PROFILEmoderate drawdown · 9h duration
PEAK2.65$
−4.75% drawdown over 9h
2.53$TROUGH
ES / VaR · TAIL THICKNESSmild tail heaviness|ES₉₅| / |VaR₉₅| = 1.39× (normal ≈ 1.25)
VaR₉₉ / VaR₉₅ · CONCENTRATIONmoderate extreme-tail concentrationratio = 1.57× (normal ≈ 1.41)
DRAWDOWN · CAPITAL DURATIONmoderate drawdownrecovery needed: +4.98% (compounding)
VaR = quantile loss · ES (CVaR) = expected loss conditional on tail · DD = peak-to-trough decline. Under normality ES₉₅/VaR₉₅ ≈ 1.25; ratio > 1.5 ⇒ fat-tail regime.

§7 · Technicals

RSI(14)
54.6 · neutral
Bollinger %B
0.655 · within band
Bollinger upper
$0.0273
Bollinger MA
$0.0262
Bollinger lower
$0.0250

§8 · Time-series structure

Regime & autocorrelation diagnostics
TIME-SERIES STRUCTUREREGIME: MEAN-REVERTING · ρ(1) -0.21 + ADF rejected
ρ(1) AUTOCORR-0.212within white-noise band
ρ(2) AUTOCORR-0.119lag-2 not significant
H · HURST EXPONENT0.576persistent
OLS TREND · t-STAT+1.590fails 5% test
HURST EXPONENT [0, 1]persistent · H = 0.576
H = 0.576PERSISTENT
0
anti-persistent0.45
mean-reverting0.5
random walk0.55
persistent1
strongly trending
AUTOCORRELATION FUNCTION · ρ(k) for k=1..5WHITE NOISE · no significant lags
k=1-0.212k=2-0.119k=3-0.082k=4+0.148k=5-0.2290+1−1+0.41−0.41+ momentum (ρ > +0.41)− reversal (ρ < −0.41)noise (within band)±2/√n threshold
OLS TREND · t-STAT · [-5, +5]NOT SIGNIFICANT (|t|=1.59)
−5 reject−1.960 retain H₀+1.96+5 reject
REGIME CLASSIFICATIONMEAN-REVERTING · ρ(1) -0.21 + ADF rejectedfrom Hurst + ρ(1) joint diagnosis
PREDICTABILITY · score 0.36high · clear structure|ρ(1)| + 2·|H − 0.5| heuristic
TREND SIGNIFICANCENOT SIGNIFICANT (|t|=1.59)α=0.05 critical |t|=1.96 · α=0.01 |t|=2.58
ρ(k) = lag-k sample autocorrelation · H = R/S Hurst exponent · t = OLS-trend t-statistic. Significance bands at ±2/√n approximate the 95% white-noise envelope. α=0.05 critical |t|=1.96; α=0.01 |t|=2.58.

§9 · Microstructure

24h volume (USD)
$363.17k
Open interest (USD)
$2.45M
Vol / OI (turnover)
0.15x
1h funding
0.001250%
Funding (annualised)
+10.95%/yr

§10 · Position sizing

Continuous Kelly (μ/σ²)
2.722× leverage · optimal log-utility leverage
Half-Kelly
1.361× · industry-standard conservative
Quarter-Kelly
0.680×

§11 · Hourly return heatmap

24-hour signed Δln-r grid · green = up · red = down
HOURLY RETURN HEATMAP · n=24 bars · best 7.18% · worst -2.93% · typical |Δ| 0.95%MILD BULLISH +2.07%BEST+7.18%07hWORST-2.93%22hTYPICAL |Δ|0.95%mean absoluteCUMULATIVE+2.07%Σ signed ΔSTREAK↘ 3down-runASIA · 00-08 UTCμ +0.68% · Σ +5.47%EUROPE · 08-16 UTCμ -0.07% · Σ -0.56%US · 16-24 UTCμ -0.36% · Σ -2.85%CUMULATIVE Δ PATH · final +2.07%+4.37%-2.81%1.75% · 15h1.75% · 15h1.75%15h-1.09% · 16h-1.09% · 16h-1.09%16h-0.27% · 17h-0.27% · 17h-0.27%17h0.40% · 18h0.40% · 18h0.40%18h0.34% · 19h0.34% · 19h0.34%19h-0.21% · 20h-0.21% · 20h-0.21%20h1.14% · 21h1.14% · 21h1.14%21h-2.93% · 22h-2.93% · 22h-2.93%22h▼ WORST-0.23% · 23h-0.23% · 23h-0.23%23h0.95% · 00h0.95% · 00h0.95%00h0.05% · 01h0.05% · 01h0.05%01h-1.81% · 02h-1.81% · 02h-1.81%02h0.22% · 03h0.22% · 03h0.22%03h-0.41% · 04h-0.41% · 04h-0.41%04h-0.04% · 05h-0.04% · 05h-0.04%05h-0.66% · 06h-0.66% · 06h-0.66%06h7.18% · 07h7.18% · 07h7.18%07h★ BEST-0.85% · 08h-0.85% · 08h-0.85%08h-0.71% · 09h-0.71% · 09h-0.71%09h-0.58% · 10h-0.58% · 10h-0.58%10h0.42% · 11h0.42% · 11h0.42%11h-0.06% · 12h-0.06% · 12h-0.06%12h-0.04% · 13h-0.04% · 13h-0.04%13h-0.48% · 14h-0.48% · 14h-0.48%14hTIME PATTERNAsia-led (+5.47%)RUNSup max 2 · down max 3BREADTH38% up · 63% down
9 up bars · 15 down · best 7.18% · worst -2.93% · typical |Δ| 0.952%

§12 · Equity curve & underwater drawdown

Cumulative compounded return + running peak-to-trough
EQUITY & DRAWDOWN ANALYSIS · n=25 barsPROFITABLE +1.73%FINAL+1.73%MAX DD-4.81%RECOVERYONGOING · 9 barsMAX RUN-UP+4.11%UNDERWATER21/25 (84%)STREAK↘ 3EQUITY CURVE · end 1.0173 · peak 1.0411 · range [0.9714, 1.0411]1.04110.9714break-even = 1★ PEAK 1.0411UNDERWATER DRAWDOWN · max -4.81% · moderate0%-4.81%▼ TROUGH -4.81%TOP DRAWDOWN PERIODS · 3 total#1 -4.81%bar 9-17 · 9 bars · recovered#2 -2.29%bar 19-25 · 7 bars · ONGOING#3 -1.36%bar 3-7 · 5 bars · recoveredDD SEVERITYmoderate (max -4.81%)RECOVERYongoing · 17 barsTIME UNDER WATER84% of session · 21/25 bars
final equity 1.0173 (1.73%) · max DD -4.81% · time-under-water 21/25 bars

§13 · Rolling-window statistics (w = 6 bars)

Rolling annualised Sharpe ratio · green positive · red negative
n=19 · +8 / −11 (42% positive) · μ=-8.73 · σ=29.42MIXED EDGELAST -53.34 (-1.52σ vs μ)58.2129.100.00-29.10-58.21μ = -8.7315.0915.096.306.30-17.01-17.01-16.54-16.54-9.99-9.99-13.19-13.19-27.65-27.65-40.32-40.32-20.91-20.91-17.70-17.70-55.58-55.5821.6021.6027.3727.3722.2222.2221.2721.2723.6823.6827.0727.07-58.21-58.21-53.34-53.34v > 0 · positivev < 0 · negativeμ mean lineμ ± σ bandlatest bar (outlined)
latest -53.345 · range [-58.21, 27.37] · μ -8.729 · positive Sharpe = excess-return-per-risk earned by buying-and-holding through this window
Rolling annualised volatility (%)
n=19 · μ=162.2224 · σ=98.0497 · range [39.8183, 302.3249] · R²=0.134▼ FALLING -55.20%σ EXTREME 60.44%LAST 39.8183302.3249236.6983171.0716105.444939.8183μ = 162.2224max 302.3249min 39.8183dataMA(3)OLS R²=0.13μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
latest 39.82% · range [39.82%, 302.32%] · μ 162.22% · σ̂ scaled to annualised (×√8760)
Rolling lag-1 autocorrelation ρ(1)
n=19 · +2 / −17 (11% positive) · μ=-0.219 · σ=0.197MEAN-REVERSIONLAST 0.053 (+1.37σ vs μ)0.5910.2950.000-0.295-0.591μ = -0.219-0.352-0.352-0.002-0.002-0.330-0.330-0.335-0.335-0.329-0.329-0.314-0.314-0.326-0.326-0.098-0.098-0.217-0.217-0.209-0.209-0.591-0.591-0.097-0.097-0.359-0.359-0.300-0.300-0.276-0.276-0.296-0.296-0.095-0.0950.3170.3170.0530.053v > 0 · positivev < 0 · negativeμ mean lineμ ± σ bandlatest bar (outlined)
latest 0.053 · |ρ| > 0.3 ⇒ regime with persistence (ρ > 0) or reversal (ρ < 0) · |ρ| ≤ 0.1 = consistent with random walk

§14 · Hypothesis tests (α = 0.05)

Formal inference at 5% significance
1 of 6 REJECT · mixed evidence1 reject·5 pass·α = 0.05
𝒩

Jarque-Bera

REJECT H₀***

H₀: Δln-r ~ Normal(μ, σ²)

STATISTIC
161.4239
p-VALUE (log scale)
< 0.0001
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p < α · rejection zonenon-normal · fat tails or skew present
ρ

Ljung-Box(h=5)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: No serial autocorrelation up to lag 5

STATISTIC
4.2222
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.5196
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedconsistent with white noise
Ψ

Dickey-Fuller (τ_μ)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: p has a unit root (non-stationary)

STATISTIC
-2.2986
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.1798
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedrandom-walk behaviour (crit ≈ -2.86)
±

Wald-Wolfowitz runs

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Sign sequence of Δ is random

STATISTIC
0.7816
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.4345
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedsigns appear random (14 runs)
χ

KPSS (μ stationarity)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: p IS level-stationary

STATISTIC
0.2525
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.2651
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedstationary not rejected (crit 0.463)
χ

Variance ratio q=3

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Δln-r is a random walk · VR = 1

STATISTIC
-1.0524
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.2926
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedVR 0.680 ≈ 1 (RW behaviour)
Each row states an explicit null H₀, the test statistic, an approximated p-value, and the decision. REJECT means evidence against H₀. KPSS complements ADF (rejecting both ⇒ ambiguous; rejecting one ⇒ clean verdict).

§15 · Spectral analysis (DFT periodogram)

Power spectrum of Δln-r · ‖X̂(k)‖²/n
n=12 bins · noise floor μ=3.57e-4 · top T=2.00h (29.9%) · top-3 cover 56.8%1 SIGNIFICANT CYCLEcumulative energy ↗ (1 bin above 2× noise)1.3e-39.6e-46.4e-43.2e-40.0e+0μ noise floor2× noise (significance)period 24.0 · power 1.23e-4 · 2.9% energyperiod 24.0 · power 1.23e-4 · 2.9% energyperiod 12.0 · power 1.91e-4 · 4.5% energyperiod 12.0 · power 1.91e-4 · 4.5% energyperiod 8.0 · power 1.54e-4 · 3.6% energyperiod 8.0 · power 1.54e-4 · 3.6% energyperiod 6.0 · power 4.27e-4 · 10.0% energyperiod 6.0 · power 4.27e-4 · 10.0% energyperiod 4.8 · power 9.37e-5 · 2.2% energyperiod 4.8 · power 9.37e-5 · 2.2% energyperiod 4.0 · power 4.62e-4 · 10.8% energyperiod 4.0 · power 4.62e-4 · 10.8% energyperiod 3.4 · power 6.89e-4 · 16.1% energyperiod 3.4 · power 6.89e-4 · 16.1% energyperiod 3.0 · power 1.64e-4 · 3.8% energyperiod 3.0 · power 1.64e-4 · 3.8% energyperiod 2.7 · power 4.12e-4 · 9.6% energyperiod 2.7 · power 4.12e-4 · 9.6% energyperiod 2.4 · power 1.72e-4 · 4.0% energyperiod 2.4 · power 1.72e-4 · 4.0% energyperiod 2.2 · power 1.11e-4 · 2.6% energyperiod 2.2 · power 1.11e-4 · 2.6% energyperiod 2.0 · power 1.28e-3 · 29.9% energyperiod 2.0 · power 1.28e-3 · 29.9% energy50% by T=3.0h#1 dominantT=2.00h#2T=3.43h#3T=4.00hT=2hT=3hT=4hT=6hT=8hT=12hT=16hT=24h← shorter cycle (high freq · Nyquist=½) · period T (bars per cycle) · longer cycle (low freq · 1/n) →#1 dominant#2 peak#3 peak> 2× noisenoiseμ floor2μ sig.cum energy
dominant period ≈ 2.00h (freq 0.500) · concentrates 29.9% of total energy · Σ|X̂|²/n = 4.280e-3

▸ Depth section using sovereign-store price series (5000 bars · effective 5257847 bars/year) — annualisation reflects native polling cadence, not upstream timeframes.

§16 · NOSTRADAMUS continuous quant — perp leverage & bootstrap MC

Continuous-price extension of the prediction-market quant module. Kelly growth on observed returns (Merton μ/σ² parametric vs argmax empirical), Monte-Carlo equity fan bootstrapped from the historical return distribution at quarter-Kelly leverage, and an annualized return decomposition. Sweep parameters in the simulator.

§17 · Continuous Kelly

Continuous-Kelly growth · g(f) = E[ln(1 + f·r)]
f★ empirical 8.00× · g(f★) 0.004%/barparametric μ/σ² 9.01× · μ 0.001% · σ 0.09%
μ per barmean
0.001%
σ per barvol
0.09%
Empirical f★argmax g(f)
8.00×
from observed distribution
Parametric f★μ/σ²
9.01×
Merton continuous-time
Half-Kelly½ f★
4.00×
~⅔ of full growth, half the variance
Quarter-Kelly¼ f★
2.00×
industry default — survives model error
0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.0×1.6×3.2×4.8×6.4×8.0×leverage fraction fexpected log-growth per bar
g(f) empiricalf★ argmaxparametric f★
Maximum expected log-growth from leveraging the historical return distribution. Empirical f★ argmaxes the sample expectation; parametric f★ = μ/σ² is Merton's continuous-time optimum.

§18 · MC equity fan

Bootstrapped equity fan at 2.25× leverage
Median CAGR/bar 0.001% · annualized Sharpe 21.43400 paths × 720 bars · leverage 2.25× · bootstrap from 4999 observed returns
Sharpe / barμ/σ
0.009
annualized 21.43
μ per barafter L
0.002%
σ per barafter L
0.21%
VaR 95%5%
0.17%
per-bar worst-case
CVaR 95%ES
0.33%
mean tail loss
Max DD (median)MDD
-0.4%
0.89×0.95×1.00×1.05×1.11×1.16×0120240360480600720startbar #equity multiple
median25/75 band5/95 band
Median path with 25/75 and 5/95 percentile bands across 400 simulated careers. Bars resample with replacement from the observed return distribution — preserves fat tails the parametric model misses.

§19 · Annualized breakdown

Annualized return components
APR 1000% · APY 1000% · Sharpe 19.13σ ann 212% · Sortino 22.47 · n 4999 · ⚠ capped (n=4999 too small to support 8760-bar projection)
0%539%1078%1618%2157%2696%1000.0%APR (simple)1000.0%APY (compound)212.3%Ann. vol σ1913.4%Sharpe (ann)2246.8%Sortino (ann)
Simple APR vs compounded APY · annualized volatility · risk-adjusted Sharpe and Sortino. All scaled by √(periods/yr).

§20 · GARCH(1,1) volatility band

GARCH(1,1) · conditional vol envelope (±2σ)
GARCH persistence α+β = 0.980· σ̂ₜ = 1.000% · long-run σ = 2.236%
0.0240.0250.0260.0270.0280.029t-4999t-4166t-3333t-2500t-1666t-833t-0

Persistence near 1 ⇒ vol clusters strongly (slow mean reversion). Long-run σ is the unconditional target the conditional vol orbits. The ±2σ band reflects time-varying scale, unlike a flat-vol band.

Time-varying volatility band fitted to the price series. Persistence α+β > 0.98 means vol shocks decay slowly — recent moves stay relevant.

§∞ · Provenance & attestation

Upstream
api.hyperliquid.xyz
Snapshot fetched
2026-06-14 14:29:37 UTC
Snapshot age
79ms
History points
25 hourly closes
Page rendered
2026-06-14 14:29:37 UTC
Storage policy
no persistence — fetched on every request
SHA-256 attestation
4fbc107a78822eb7a51b2b038150b1d72959413a8aad4b7a30bb62e979d2620e · deterministic hash of the source snapshot — proves this page was rendered from this exact data
Open data licence
CC0 / public domain · free to mirror, syndicate, analyse

§∞-2 · Related markets · explore more

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Also see: /arb opportunities · RSS feed

Market depth

▸ live order book · Hyperliquid perp
Depth within 1bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Depth within 5bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Depth within 10bp
$330
bid $172 · ask $157
Depth within 50bp
$16.65K
bid $8.55K · ask $8.09K
Mid price
0.026559
(best bid + best ask) / 2
Spread
11.3bp
(bestAsk − bestBid) / mid
Imbalance (whole book)
+0.101
bid-heavy
Imbalance (top-5)
+0.259
bid-heavy top-of-book

Slippage scenarios

▸ live book walk · Hyperliquid perp

Simulating a market order at three notionals against the live book. Slippage = avg execution price vs. mid, in basis points. Worst fill = price of the deepest level touched. Live JSON: /api/asset/hl-STBL/slippage?size=10000&side=buy

SideNotionalAvg fillSlippageWorst fillLevelsStatus
BUY$1.00K0.0265859.93bp0.0265935FILLED
BUY$10.00K0.02666138.22bp0.02674319FILLED
BUY$100.00K0.02667242.42bp0.02682020PARTIAL
SELL$1.00K0.02653210.18bp0.0265314FILLED
SELL$10.00K0.02645738.22bp0.02635116FILLED
SELL$100.00K0.02642650.06bp0.02629820PARTIAL

Funding carry

▸ LONGS PAY · shorts receive
Hourly funding
+1.250e-5
0.00125% / hr
Annualised APR
10.958%
hourly · 24 · 365.25
Long: days to 1% carry
33.3d
longs pay
Short: days to 1% carry
33.3d
shorts receive
SideDirectionAnnualised carryDays → 1%Days → 10%
LONGPAY-10.958%33.3d333.3d
SHORTRECEIVE10.958%33.3d333.3d

/api/asset/hl-STBL/carry · same metrics, JSON

Volume profile

▸ real volume · Hyperliquid candlesstep $ 1 · 25 records
Price binBarsVolumeDistribution
$0.000000–$1.0000★25$14.02M

★ POC = Point of Control (highest-volume bin). Live JSON: /api/asset/hl-STBL/volprofile?priceStep=1

Order flow

▸ BALANCED · -0.008 · Hyperliquid candles
Bars (buy / sell)
9 / 15
1 unclassified
Buy weight
$6.44M
real volume
Sell weight
$6.54M
real volume
Net delta
$101.68K
sellers net
Imbalance
-0.78%
(buy − sell) / (buy + sell)
Toxicity (VPIN)
0.8%
two-sided / balanced
Impact (|Δp|/vol)
—
needs real volume

Sparkline = cumulative delta over the 25-record window./api/asset/hl-STBL/flow?rollingWindow=30

Cascade clusters

▸ DOWN · 6 found · deepest 3.11% · Hyperliquid candles

Price-only proxy for forced-unwind clusters. No exchange liquidation feed is wired — read each row as a candidate event, not a confirmed liquidation.

#WindowDurationPeak → TroughDrawdownBars
#12026-06-13 22:00:00Z2.0h0.026541→0.0257163.108%3
#22026-06-14 08:00:00Z3.0h0.027163→0.0265872.121%4
#32026-06-14 02:00:00Z2.0h0.025975→0.0254601.983%3

/api/asset/hl-STBL/cascades?windowMs=10800000&minDrawdownPct=0.005 · full list + parameters in JSON

Risk metrics

▸ sovereign store · 5,000 barsperiods/year ≈ 5.26M
Realized vol (annualised)
212.35%
σ per bar = 0.000926
Mean return (annualised)
4063.11%
μ per bar = 0.000008
Sharpe (rf=0)
19.13
annualised; risk-free assumed zero
Max drawdown
4.95%
peak 0.03 → trough 0.03 over 2155 bars

/api/asset/hl-STBL/risk · same metrics, JSON