HYPERLIQUID · PERPETUAL FUTURES

SOL

SOL-USD perpetual · 24/7 trading on Hyperliquid

▸ Advanced metrics · M2M bundle

hyperliquid · perp-sol · fresh · feed 3s old
24h sparkline · 60 pts▼ -0.84%
realized vol (ann.)
33.01%
max drawdown
1.20%
sharpe
-58.82
ulcer index
0.69%
RMS drawdown
pain index
0.59%
mean drawdown
mod. VaR 95%
0.02%
Cornish-Fisher
martin ratio
-2801.66
ret / ulcer
CDaR 95%
1.08%
cond. drawdown
gain/pain
0.91
Σgain / Σ|loss|
sterling
-1798.30
ret / CDaR
omega (θ=0)
0.91
upside/downside
roll spread
0.0 bps
implied (price-only)
bars used
2000
store
spread
—
24h Δ
-0.84%
flow lean
—
carry
longs_pay
6.63%
signalNEUTRALconfidence 35%
  • funding: longs pay — perp shorts get paid to wait
Same bundle via M2M API: /api/m2m/hl-SOL/bundle · venue execution: hyperliquid →
LIVEPOLL0SRCFRESH3.3s⏱--:--:-- UTC8NEXT8.0sUP0s--:--HIST0/30
▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC FRESH·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC FRESH·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·
MARK · live
$67.585
24h Δ · live
-0.84%
24h vol · live
$128.3M
SOL · live 24h price
n=25 · μ=68.3486 · σ=0.4234 · range [67.5700, 69.2360] · R²=0.143▼ FALLING -0.98%σ LOW 0.62%LAST 67.570069.236068.819568.403067.986567.5700μ = 68.3486max 69.2360min 67.5700dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.14μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxminlive endpoint
25 closes · last $67.57
Funding direction · live
Long fee 46.9%Short fee 53.1%SHORT FEE53.1%
Σ = 0.0%
Σ-sides total = 0.00% (100.00pp arb gap)
H(p) entropy = 0.997 / 1.00 bits (100%) · max uncertainty (~50/50)
Long fee
46.9%▬ +0.00pp
Short fee
53.1%▬ +0.00pp
1h funding 0.000757% · longs pay
Hourly contract volume · live
n=25 · Σ=1,911,035 · μ=76441.4 · σ=76565.9 · CV=1.00BURSTY · concentratedcumulative energy ↗ · 50% by h=8086,368172,737259,105345,473μ = 76441345,473.4550%h1h5h9h13h17h21h25#1 peak#2-3> μactivequietμ linecum energy
peak 345473 contracts
Live numerics · pulse on poll
LIVE NUMERICS9 metrics·POLL 0
⏱snapshot age
3.3s
$mark $
$67.585
$mid $
$67.5775
◉prev-day close
$68.155
Δ24h Δ %
-0.836%
$24h vol $
$128.31M
◐open interest $
$267.72M
%funding (1h)
0.000757%
%funding (yr)
+6.63%/yr

§1 · 24h time-series

Close price · hourly
n=25 · μ=68.3486 · σ=0.4234 · range [67.5700, 69.2360] · R²=0.143▼ FALLING -0.98%σ LOW 0.62%LAST 67.570069.236068.819568.403067.986567.5700μ = 68.3486max 69.2360min 67.5700dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.14μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
mark $67.5850 · 24h -0.84% · range $[67.5700, 69.2360]
OHLC candles · hourly
n=25 · up 11 · down 14 (44% up) · range [67.4900, 69.5320] · σ=0.4234 · CV=0.01 · bodyµ=41%BEARISH -0.61%CLOSE 67.5700 vs OPEN 67.9840 (-0.61%)&#9660; CLOSE 67.570069.532069.021568.511068.000567.4900μ close = 68.3486O67.984 H68.400 L67.960 C68.236 (+0.37%)O67.984 H68.400 L67.960 C68.236 (+0.37%)O68.242 H68.696 L68.154 C68.576 (+0.49%)O68.242 H68.696 L68.154 C68.576 (+0.49%)O68.576 H68.598 L67.795 C68.081 (-0.72%)O68.576 H68.598 L67.795 C68.081 (-0.72%)O68.072 H68.246 L67.826 C67.968 (-0.15%)O68.072 H68.246 L67.826 C67.968 (-0.15%)O67.963 H68.360 L67.946 C68.096 (+0.20%)O67.963 H68.360 L67.946 C68.096 (+0.20%)O68.089 H68.381 L68.000 C68.201 (+0.16%)O68.089 H68.381 L68.000 C68.201 (+0.16%)O68.208 H68.249 L68.026 C68.243 (+0.05%)O68.208 H68.249 L68.026 C68.243 (+0.05%)1.5%O68.244 H69.532 L68.228 C69.236 (+1.45%)O68.244 H69.532 L68.228 C69.236 (+1.45%)O69.236 H69.245 L68.861 C68.883 (-0.51%)O69.236 H69.245 L68.861 C68.883 (-0.51%)O68.882 H69.148 L68.749 C68.887 (+0.01%)O68.882 H69.148 L68.749 C68.887 (+0.01%)O68.899 H68.899 L68.621 C68.729 (-0.25%)O68.899 H68.899 L68.621 C68.729 (-0.25%)O68.729 H69.062 L68.605 C68.811 (+0.12%)O68.729 H69.062 L68.605 C68.811 (+0.12%)O68.794 H69.062 L68.694 C68.805 (+0.02%)O68.794 H69.062 L68.694 C68.805 (+0.02%)O68.805 H69.046 L68.734 C68.973 (+0.24%)O68.805 H69.046 L68.734 C68.973 (+0.24%)O68.943 H68.989 L68.416 C68.489 (-0.66%)O68.943 H68.989 L68.416 C68.489 (-0.66%)O68.502 H68.554 L68.001 C68.242 (-0.38%)O68.502 H68.554 L68.001 C68.242 (-0.38%)O68.238 H68.471 L68.096 C68.175 (-0.09%)O68.238 H68.471 L68.096 C68.175 (-0.09%)O68.187 H68.222 L68.016 C68.184 (-0.00%)O68.187 H68.222 L68.016 C68.184 (-0.00%)O68.200 H68.319 L68.089 C68.194 (-0.01%)O68.200 H68.319 L68.089 C68.194 (-0.01%)O68.194 H68.484 L67.883 C68.463 (+0.39%)O68.194 H68.484 L67.883 C68.463 (+0.39%)O68.462 H68.493 L68.121 C68.124 (-0.49%)O68.462 H68.493 L68.121 C68.124 (-0.49%)O68.124 H68.305 L68.010 C68.076 (-0.07%)O68.124 H68.305 L68.010 C68.076 (-0.07%)O68.077 H68.131 L67.676 C67.749 (-0.48%)O68.077 H68.131 L67.676 C67.749 (-0.48%)O67.743 H67.827 L67.490 C67.724 (-0.03%)O67.743 H67.827 L67.490 C67.724 (-0.03%)O67.735 H67.795 L67.569 C67.570 (-0.24%)O67.735 H67.795 L67.569 C67.570 (-0.24%)#1#5#9#13#17#21#25up bar (C≥O)down bar (C<O)MA(5) closeμ closedoji (~no body)biggest body
25 bars
Hourly volume (base units)
n=25 · Σ=1,911,035 · μ=76441.4 · σ=76565.9 · CV=1.00BURSTY · concentratedcumulative energy &nearr; · 50% by h=8086,368172,737259,105345,473μ = 7644146,875.5 · 13.6% peak46,875.5 · 13.6% peak103,358.1 · 29.9% peak103,358.1 · 29.9% peak269,474.91 · 78.0% peak269,474.91 · 78.0% peak41,906.55 · 12.1% peak41,906.55 · 12.1% peak96,827.96 · 28.0% peak96,827.96 · 28.0% peak39,796.76 · 11.5% peak39,796.76 · 11.5% peak30,542.79 · 8.8% peak30,542.79 · 8.8% peak345,473.45345,473.45 · 100.0% peak345,473.45 · 100.0% peak88,628.5 · 25.7% peak88,628.5 · 25.7% peak60,704.9 · 17.6% peak60,704.9 · 17.6% peak65,144.79 · 18.9% peak65,144.79 · 18.9% peak118,351.5 · 34.3% peak118,351.5 · 34.3% peak36,721.14 · 10.6% peak36,721.14 · 10.6% peak30,374.54 · 8.8% peak30,374.54 · 8.8% peak120,047.37 · 34.7% peak120,047.37 · 34.7% peak52,175.12 · 15.1% peak52,175.12 · 15.1% peak32,536.96 · 9.4% peak32,536.96 · 9.4% peak23,103.34 · 6.7% peak23,103.34 · 6.7% peak21,776.22 · 6.3% peak21,776.22 · 6.3% peak63,457 · 18.4% peak63,457 · 18.4% peak75,508.15 · 21.9% peak75,508.15 · 21.9% peak22,769.84 · 6.6% peak22,769.84 · 6.6% peak41,992.37 · 12.2% peak41,992.37 · 12.2% peak69,345.15 · 20.1% peak69,345.15 · 20.1% peak14,142.22 · 4.1% peak14,142.22 · 4.1% peak50%#1#5#9#13#17#21#25#1 peak#2-3> μactivequietμ linecum energy
Σ vol 1911035 · peak 345473 · CV 1.00

§2 · Returns distribution (log-returns)

Histogram of rₜ = ln(pₜ/pₜ₋₁)
n=24 · 12 bins · μ=-0.0002 · σ=0.0041 · skew=1.27 (right-skewed) · kurt=2.86 (leptokurtic (fat tails))65320 2-63.41bpbin -63.41bp · n=2 · 33.3% peakbin -63.41bp · n=2 · 33.3% peak 3-45.33bpbin -45.33bp · n=3 · 50.0% peakbin -45.33bp · n=3 · 50.0% peak 3-27.26bpbin -27.26bp · n=3 · 50.0% peakbin -27.26bp · n=3 · 50.0% peak 5-9.18bpbin -9.18bp · n=5 · 83.3% peakbin -9.18bp · n=5 · 83.3% peak 68.90bpbin 8.90bp · n=6 · 100.0% peakbin 8.90bp · n=6 · 100.0% peak 226.97bpbin 26.97bp · n=2 · 33.3% peakbin 26.97bp · n=2 · 33.3% peak 245.05bpbin 45.05bp · n=2 · 33.3% peakbin 45.05bp · n=2 · 33.3% peak63.12bp81.20bp99.27bp117.35bp 1135.42bpbin 135.42bp · n=1 · 16.7% peakbin 135.42bp · n=1 · 16.7% peakμΔ < 0 · loss barsΔ ≈ 0 · flatΔ > 0 · gain barsN(μ,σ²) referenceμ line · ±σ band shaded
n=24 · positive 11 · negative 13
Q-Q plot · standardised rₜ vs N(0,1)
n=24 · skew=1.29 · kurt=3.23 · near 19 / mid 4 / far 1 · OLS slope=0.96 intercept=-0.00LEPTOKURTIC — FAT TAILSUPPER TAIL NORMALLOWER TAIL NORMAL-3σ-3σ-2σ-2σ-1σ-1σ+0σ+0σ+1σ+1σ+2σ+2σ+3σ+3σsample ↓marginal: sample bars + theoretical N(0,1) curve →theoretical Φ⁻¹(p) →↑ sample z-quantile|Δ| < 0.3σ · on the line|Δ| < 1σ · moderate|Δ| ≥ 1σ · outliery = x refOLS fit

§3 · Spot quote

Mark price
$67.585
Mid price
$67.5775
24h change
-0.84%
Mark–mid spread
1.11 bps
Prev-day close
$68.155

§4 · Sample moments (prices)

Descriptive statistics · 5-number summary · shape diagnostics
SAMPLE MOMENTS · N=25APPROXIMATELY NORMAL · WELL-BEHAVED
μ MEAN68.3486$95% CI: [68.1826$, 68.5146$]
σ STD DEV0.4234$σ² = 0.179 · CV = 0.62%
med MEDIAN68.2360$Q₁ 68.0960$ · Q₃ 68.7290$
FIVE-NUMBER SUMMARY · BOX PLOTrange 1.6660$ · IQR 0.6330$ (1.349σ→0.5712$)
min 67.5700$Q₁ 68.0960$med 68.2360$Q₃ 68.7290$max 69.2360$μ
SKEWNESS · G₁0.233approximately symmetric
−3−10+1+3
EXCESS KURTOSIS · G₂-0.833mesokurtic · normal-like
−30+2+4+6
μ ↔ medianμ > med · right-tailed|μ−med| / σ = 0.27
σ × 1.349 ↔ IQRconsistent with normalratio = 0.90
range ↔ σconcentrated (range < 4σ)range / σ = 3.93
μ = mean · σ = standard deviation · CV = coefficient of variation. Skew (G₁): >0 right-skewed. Kurt (G₂, excess): >0 leptokurtic. 95% CI = μ ± 1.96·SE.

§5 · Returns analytics (log-returns)

Risk-adjusted performance · log-returns
RETURNS · RISK-ADJUSTEDUNPROFITABLE · SR=-8.53
μᵣ MEAN / h-0.040867%drift is negative per h · |μ|/σ = 0.091
σᵣ STD / h0.448421%σ²ᵣ = 0.201×10⁻⁴ · CV = 10.97×
σ ANNUALISED41.97%/yrscaled by √8760 (hourly→yearly) · 0.448%/h base
RISK-ADJUSTED PERFORMANCEhigher = better edge per unit risk
SHARPE (annualised)-8.53negative edge
-2-10+1+2+3+4
SORTINO (annualised)-9.66downside drag
-2-10+1+2+3+4
CALMAR (return / max-DD)-100.00drawdown overwhelms returns
-20+2+4+6
RETURN-DISTRIBUTION SHAPE|skew| < 0.5 ≈ symmetric · |kurt| < 1 ≈ mesokurtic
SKEWNESS · G₁1.38right-skewed · heavy positive tail
-3-10+1+3
EXCESS KURTOSIS · G₂4.32leptokurtic · fat tails
-30+2+4+6
SORTINO vs SHARPEdownside vol < total vol · favourableSoR / SR = 1.13
CALMAR · DD CONTROLdrawdown > returns · adverseCR = -100.00
EXPECTED EDGE-358.00%/yr driftμ × 8760 = annualised expectation
rₜ = ln(pₜ/pₜ₋₁). σ × √8760 = annualised. Sharpe = μ/σ scaled; Sortino uses downside-only vol; Calmar = annual return / max drawdown.

§6 · Risk metrics

Tail risk + drawdown · downside diagnostics
TAIL & DRAWDOWN RISKELEVATED · 95% VaR 0.68%
VaR₉₅ (h)0.675%5% prob of larger adverse h move
VaR₉₉ (h)0.720%1% prob · extreme-tail threshold
ES₉₅ (CVaR)0.714%expected loss given 5% tail event
MAX DRAWDOWN2.41%17h from peak to trough
TAIL-RISK LADDER (h losses)larger negative = worse · markers show severity
0 · no lossVaR₉₅−0.675%VaR₉₉−0.720%ES₉₅−0.714%worst tail ←→ zero loss
MAX DRAWDOWN PROFILEmoderate drawdown · 17h duration
PEAK6923.60$
−2.41% drawdown over 17h
6757.00$TROUGH
ES / VaR · TAIL THICKNESSthin tails · ES ≈ VaR|ES₉₅| / |VaR₉₅| = 1.06× (normal ≈ 1.25)
VaR₉₉ / VaR₉₅ · CONCENTRATIONuniform tailratio = 1.07× (normal ≈ 1.41)
DRAWDOWN · CAPITAL DURATIONmoderate drawdownrecovery needed: +2.47% (compounding)
VaR = quantile loss · ES (CVaR) = expected loss conditional on tail · DD = peak-to-trough decline. Under normality ES₉₅/VaR₉₅ ≈ 1.25; ratio > 1.5 ⇒ fat-tail regime.

§7 · Technicals

RSI(14)
39.2 · neutral
Bollinger %B
0.050 · within band
Bollinger upper
$69.2972
Bollinger MA
$68.3879
Bollinger lower
$67.4786

§8 · Time-series structure

Regime & autocorrelation diagnostics
TIME-SERIES STRUCTUREREGIME: MEAN-REVERTING · ρ(1) -0.20 + ADF rejected
ρ(1) AUTOCORR-0.205within white-noise band
ρ(2) AUTOCORR+0.085lag-2 not significant
H · HURST EXPONENT0.754strongly persistent
OLS TREND · t-STAT-1.960fails 5% test
HURST EXPONENT [0, 1]strongly persistent · H = 0.754
H = 0.754STRONGLY PERSISTENT
0
anti-persistent0.45
mean-reverting0.5
random walk0.55
persistent1
strongly trending
AUTOCORRELATION FUNCTION · ρ(k) for k=1..5WHITE NOISE · no significant lags
k=1-0.205k=2+0.085k=3-0.130k=4-0.008k=5-0.2600+1−1+0.41−0.41+ momentum (ρ > +0.41)− reversal (ρ < −0.41)noise (within band)±2/√n threshold
OLS TREND · t-STAT · [-5, +5]MARGINAL @ 10% (|t|=1.96)
−5 reject−1.960 retain H₀+1.96+5 reject
REGIME CLASSIFICATIONMEAN-REVERTING · ρ(1) -0.20 + ADF rejectedfrom Hurst + ρ(1) joint diagnosis
PREDICTABILITY · score 0.71very high · strong structure|ρ(1)| + 2·|H − 0.5| heuristic
TREND SIGNIFICANCEMARGINAL @ 10% (|t|=1.96)α=0.05 critical |t|=1.96 · α=0.01 |t|=2.58
ρ(k) = lag-k sample autocorrelation · H = R/S Hurst exponent · t = OLS-trend t-statistic. Significance bands at ±2/√n approximate the 95% white-noise envelope. α=0.05 critical |t|=1.96; α=0.01 |t|=2.58.

§9 · Microstructure

24h volume (USD)
$128.31M
Open interest (USD)
$267.72M
Vol / OI (turnover)
0.48x
1h funding
0.000757%
Funding (annualised)
+6.63%/yr

§10 · Position sizing

Continuous Kelly (μ/σ²)
-10.000× leverage · optimal log-utility leverage
Half-Kelly
-5.000× · industry-standard conservative
Quarter-Kelly
-2.500×

§11 · Hourly return heatmap

24-hour signed Δln-r grid · green = up · red = down
HOURLY RETURN HEATMAP · n=24 bars · best 1.44% · worst -0.72% · typical |Δ| 0.30%MILD BEARISH -0.98%BEST+1.44%21hWORST-0.72%16hTYPICAL |Δ|0.30%mean absoluteCUMULATIVE-0.98%Σ signed ΔSTREAK↘ 5down-runASIA · 00-08 UTCμ -0.13% · Σ -1.03%EUROPE · 08-16 UTCμ -0.05% · Σ -0.41%US · 16-24 UTCμ +0.06% · Σ +0.45%CUMULATIVE Δ PATH · final -0.98%+1.45%-0.98%0.50% · 15h0.50% · 15h0.50%15h-0.72% · 16h-0.72% · 16h-0.72%16h▼ WORST-0.17% · 17h-0.17% · 17h-0.17%17h0.19% · 18h0.19% · 18h0.19%18h0.15% · 19h0.15% · 19h0.15%19h0.06% · 20h0.06% · 20h0.06%20h1.44% · 21h1.44% · 21h1.44%21h★ BEST-0.51% · 22h-0.51% · 22h-0.51%22h0.01% · 23h0.01% · 23h0.01%23h-0.23% · 00h-0.23% · 00h-0.23%00h0.12% · 01h0.12% · 01h0.12%01h-0.01% · 02h-0.01% · 02h-0.01%02h0.24% · 03h0.24% · 03h0.24%03h-0.70% · 04h-0.70% · 04h-0.70%04h-0.36% · 05h-0.36% · 05h-0.36%05h-0.10% · 06h-0.10% · 06h-0.10%06h0.01% · 07h0.01% · 07h0.01%07h0.01% · 08h0.01% · 08h0.01%08h0.39% · 09h0.39% · 09h0.39%09h-0.50% · 10h-0.50% · 10h-0.50%10h-0.07% · 11h-0.07% · 11h-0.07%11h-0.48% · 12h-0.48% · 12h-0.48%12h-0.04% · 13h-0.04% · 13h-0.04%13h-0.23% · 14h-0.23% · 14h-0.23%14hTIME PATTERNUS-led (+0.45%)RUNSup max 4 · down max 5BREADTH46% up · 54% down
11 up bars · 13 down · best 1.44% · worst -0.72% · typical |Δ| 0.302%

§12 · Equity curve & underwater drawdown

Cumulative compounded return + running peak-to-trough
EQUITY & DRAWDOWN ANALYSIS · n=25 barsLOSS WITH MODERATE DD (-1.00%)FINAL-1.00%MAX DD-2.41%RECOVERYONGOING · 17 barsMAX RUN-UP+1.45%UNDERWATER22/25 (88%)STREAK↘ 5EQUITY CURVE · end 0.9900 · peak 1.0145 · range [0.9900, 1.0145]1.01450.9900break-even = 1★ PEAK 1.0145UNDERWATER DRAWDOWN · max -2.41% · moderate0%-2.41%▼ TROUGH -2.41%TOP DRAWDOWN PERIODS · 2 total#1 -2.41%bar 9-25 · 17 bars · ONGOING#2 -0.89%bar 3-7 · 5 bars · recoveredDD SEVERITYmoderate (max -2.41%)RECOVERYongoing · 17 barsTIME UNDER WATER88% of session · 22/25 bars
final equity 0.9900 (-1.00%) · max DD -2.41% · time-under-water 22/25 bars

§13 · Rolling-window statistics (w = 6 bars)

Rolling annualised Sharpe ratio · green positive · red negative
n=19 · +7 / −12 (37% positive) · μ=-12.84 · σ=27.60MIXED EDGELAST -43.21 (-1.10σ vs μ)43.2121.610.00-21.61-43.21μ = -12.840.390.3920.9220.9227.4827.4832.2532.2521.3521.3520.5420.5418.8518.85-22.01-22.01-26.56-26.56-42.17-42.17-36.42-36.42-42.81-42.81-41.45-41.45-30.95-30.95-26.51-26.51-13.32-13.32-28.88-28.88-31.46-31.46-43.21-43.21v > 0 · positivev < 0 · negativeμ mean lineμ ± σ bandlatest bar (outlined)
latest -43.213 · range [-43.21, 32.25] · μ -12.842 · positive Sharpe = excess-return-per-risk earned by buying-and-holding through this window
Rolling annualised volatility (%)
n=19 · μ=41.5023 · σ=15.5146 · range [25.2417, 66.8314] · R²=0.524▼ FALLING -20.10%σ EXTREME 37.38%LAST 31.057666.831456.433946.036535.639125.2417μ = 41.5023max 66.8314min 25.2417dataMA(3)OLS R²=0.52μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
latest 31.06% · range [25.24%, 66.83%] · μ 41.50% · σ̂ scaled to annualised (×√8760)
Rolling lag-1 autocorrelation ρ(1)
n=19 · +2 / −17 (11% positive) · μ=-0.230 · σ=0.210MEAN-REVERSIONLAST -0.527 (-1.42σ vs μ)0.5270.2630.000-0.263-0.527μ = -0.230-0.269-0.2690.0600.060-0.471-0.471-0.437-0.437-0.360-0.360-0.354-0.354-0.306-0.306-0.127-0.127-0.354-0.354-0.045-0.045-0.025-0.025-0.088-0.088-0.135-0.1350.3230.323-0.272-0.272-0.395-0.395-0.258-0.258-0.336-0.336-0.527-0.527v > 0 · positivev < 0 · negativeμ mean lineμ ± σ bandlatest bar (outlined)
latest -0.527 · |ρ| > 0.3 ⇒ regime with persistence (ρ > 0) or reversal (ρ < 0) · |ρ| ≤ 0.1 = consistent with random walk

§14 · Hypothesis tests (α = 0.05)

Formal inference at 5% significance
1 of 6 REJECT · mixed evidence1 reject·5 pass·α = 0.05
𝒩

Jarque-Bera

REJECT H₀***

H₀: Δln-r ~ Normal(μ, σ²)

STATISTIC
26.2829
p-VALUE (log scale)
< 0.0001
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p < α · rejection zonenon-normal · fat tails or skew present
ρ

Ljung-Box(h=5)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: No serial autocorrelation up to lag 5

STATISTIC
4.0800
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.5398
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedconsistent with white noise
Ψ

Dickey-Fuller (τ_μ)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: p has a unit root (non-stationary)

STATISTIC
-1.3442
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.6072
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedrandom-walk behaviour (crit ≈ -2.86)
±

Wald-Wolfowitz runs

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Sign sequence of Δ is random

STATISTIC
-0.3854
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.6999
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedsigns appear random (12 runs)
χ

KPSS (μ stationarity)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: p IS level-stationary

STATISTIC
0.3202
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.1469
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedstationary not rejected (crit 0.463)
χ

Variance ratio q=3

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Δln-r is a random walk · VR = 1

STATISTIC
-0.5632
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.5733
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedVR 0.829 ≈ 1 (RW behaviour)
Each row states an explicit null H₀, the test statistic, an approximated p-value, and the decision. REJECT means evidence against H₀. KPSS complements ADF (rejecting both ⇒ ambiguous; rejecting one ⇒ clean verdict).

§15 · Spectral analysis (DFT periodogram)

Power spectrum of Δln-r · ‖X̂(k)‖²/n
n=12 bins · noise floor μ=2.44e-5 · top T=2.00h (42.3%) · top-3 cover 77.6%STRONG CYCLE @ T≈2.0cumulative energy ↗ (2 bins above 2× noise)1.2e-49.3e-56.2e-53.1e-50.0e+0μ noise floor2× noise (significance)period 24.0 · power 1.48e-5 · 5.0% energyperiod 24.0 · power 1.48e-5 · 5.0% energyperiod 12.0 · power 1.75e-5 · 6.0% energyperiod 12.0 · power 1.75e-5 · 6.0% energyperiod 8.0 · power 1.79e-7 · 0.1% energyperiod 8.0 · power 1.79e-7 · 0.1% energyperiod 6.0 · power 4.83e-5 · 16.5% energyperiod 6.0 · power 4.83e-5 · 16.5% energyperiod 4.8 · power 3.28e-6 · 1.1% energyperiod 4.8 · power 3.28e-6 · 1.1% energyperiod 4.0 · power 4.71e-6 · 1.6% energyperiod 4.0 · power 4.71e-6 · 1.6% energyperiod 3.4 · power 6.51e-6 · 2.2% energyperiod 3.4 · power 6.51e-6 · 2.2% energyperiod 3.0 · power 5.54e-5 · 18.9% energyperiod 3.0 · power 5.54e-5 · 18.9% energyperiod 2.7 · power 6.73e-6 · 2.3% energyperiod 2.7 · power 6.73e-6 · 2.3% energyperiod 2.4 · power 7.06e-6 · 2.4% energyperiod 2.4 · power 7.06e-6 · 2.4% energyperiod 2.2 · power 4.86e-6 · 1.7% energyperiod 2.2 · power 4.86e-6 · 1.7% energyperiod 2.0 · power 1.24e-4 · 42.3% energyperiod 2.0 · power 1.24e-4 · 42.3% energy50% by T=3.0h#1 dominantT=2.00h#2T=3.00h#3T=6.00hT=2hT=3hT=4hT=6hT=8hT=12hT=16hT=24h← shorter cycle (high freq · Nyquist=½) · period T (bars per cycle) · longer cycle (low freq · 1/n) →#1 dominant#2 peak#3 peak> 2× noisenoiseμ floor2μ sig.cum energy
dominant period ≈ 2.00h (freq 0.500) · concentrates 42.3% of total energy · Σ|X̂|²/n = 2.932e-4

▸ Depth section using sovereign-store price series (5000 bars · effective 5257847 bars/year) — annualisation reflects native polling cadence, not upstream timeframes.

§16 · NOSTRADAMUS continuous quant — perp leverage & bootstrap MC

Continuous-price extension of the prediction-market quant module. Kelly growth on observed returns (Merton μ/σ² parametric vs argmax empirical), Monte-Carlo equity fan bootstrapped from the historical return distribution at quarter-Kelly leverage, and an annualized return decomposition. Sweep parameters in the simulator.

§17 · Continuous Kelly

Continuous-Kelly growth · g(f) = E[ln(1 + f·r)]
NO LONG EDGE · μ -0.000% per barparametric μ/σ² short edge (μ<0) · μ -0.000% · σ 0.01%
μ per barmean
-0.000%
σ per barvol
0.01%
Empirical f★argmax g(f)
0.00×
from observed distribution
Parametric f★μ/σ²
-129.56×
Merton continuous-time
Half-Kelly½ f★
0.00×
~⅔ of full growth, half the variance
Quarter-Kelly¼ f★
0.00×
industry default — survives model error
-0.00%0.02%0.05%0.07%0.10%0.0×1.6×3.2×4.8×6.4×8.0×leverage fraction fexpected log-growth per bar
g(f) empiricalf★ argmaxparametric f★
Maximum expected log-growth from leveraging the historical return distribution. Empirical f★ argmaxes the sample expectation; parametric f★ = μ/σ² is Merton's continuous-time optimum.

§18 · MC equity fan

Bootstrapped equity fan at 0.10× leverage
Median CAGR/bar -0.000% · annualized Sharpe -37.41400 paths × 720 bars · leverage 0.10× · bootstrap from 4999 observed returns
Sharpe / barμ/σ
-0.016
annualized -37.41
μ per barafter L
-0.000%
σ per barafter L
0.00%
VaR 95%5%
0.00%
per-bar worst-case
CVaR 95%ES
0.00%
mean tail loss
Max DD (median)MDD
-0.0%
0.95×0.97×0.99×1.01×1.03×1.05×0120240360480600720startbar #equity multiple
median25/75 band5/95 band
Median path with 25/75 and 5/95 percentile bands across 400 simulated careers. Bars resample with replacement from the observed return distribution — preserves fat tails the parametric model misses.

§19 · Annualized breakdown

Annualized return components
APR -1000% · APY -100% · Sharpe -38.94σ ann 30% · Sortino -30.41 · n 4999 · ⚠ capped (n=4999 too small to support 8760-bar projection)
-4672%-3731%-2789%-1847%-906%36%-1000.0%APR (simple)-100.0%APY (compound)30.1%Ann. vol σ-3893.5%Sharpe (ann)-3041.4%Sortino (ann)
Simple APR vs compounded APY · annualized volatility · risk-adjusted Sharpe and Sortino. All scaled by √(periods/yr).

§20 · GARCH(1,1) volatility band

GARCH(1,1) · conditional vol envelope (±2σ)
GARCH persistence α+β = 0.980· σ̂ₜ = 1.000% · long-run σ = 2.236%
64.82566.11367.40168.68969.97771.265t-4999t-4166t-3333t-2500t-1666t-833t-0

Persistence near 1 ⇒ vol clusters strongly (slow mean reversion). Long-run σ is the unconditional target the conditional vol orbits. The ±2σ band reflects time-varying scale, unlike a flat-vol band.

Time-varying volatility band fitted to the price series. Persistence α+β > 0.98 means vol shocks decay slowly — recent moves stay relevant.

§∞ · Provenance & attestation

Upstream
api.hyperliquid.xyz
Snapshot fetched
2026-06-14 14:29:48 UTC
Snapshot age
3.3s
History points
25 hourly closes
Page rendered
2026-06-14 14:29:52 UTC
Storage policy
no persistence — fetched on every request
SHA-256 attestation
76c6dfe2fd0e12930110af012a67272c3f0ac6b27845bb39d9d7215d7fad7e60 · deterministic hash of the source snapshot — proves this page was rendered from this exact data
Open data licence
CC0 / public domain · free to mirror, syndicate, analyse

§∞-2 · Related markets · explore more

HL PREDGermany94.3¢HL PREDSpain90.3¢HL PREDUruguay66.7¢POLYMARKETWill Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?0¢POLYMARKETWill Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?0¢POLYMARKETWill Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?1¢HL PERPBTC-USD perpetual$64,143HL PERPETH-USD perpetual$1,664.9HL PERPHYPE-USD perpetual$60.13

Also see: /arb opportunities · RSS feed

Market depth

▸ live order book · Hyperliquid perp
Depth within 1bp
$100.53K
bid $4.91K · ask $95.61K
Depth within 5bp
$1.30M
bid $907.24K · ask $396.01K
Depth within 10bp
$1.30M
bid $907.24K · ask $396.01K
Depth within 50bp
$1.30M
bid $907.24K · ask $396.01K
Mid price
67.570500
(best bid + best ask) / 2
Spread
0.1bp
(bestAsk − bestBid) / mid
Imbalance (whole book)
+0.392
bid-heavy
Imbalance (top-5)
-0.720
ask-heavy top-of-book

Slippage scenarios

▸ live book walk · Hyperliquid perp

Simulating a market order at three notionals against the live book. Slippage = avg execution price vs. mid, in basis points. Worst fill = price of the deepest level touched. Live JSON: /api/asset/hl-SOL/slippage?size=10000&side=buy

SideNotionalAvg fillSlippageWorst fillLevelsStatus
BUY$1.00K67.57100.07bp67.57101FILLED
BUY$10.00K67.57100.07bp67.57101FILLED
BUY$100.00K67.57430.57bp67.57807FILLED
SELL$1.00K67.57000.07bp67.57001FILLED
SELL$10.00K67.56440.90bp67.55806FILLED
SELL$100.00K67.55781.87bp67.55509FILLED

Funding carry

▸ LONGS PAY · shorts receive
Hourly funding
+7.565e-6
0.00076% / hr
Annualised APR
6.632%
hourly · 24 · 365.25
Long: days to 1% carry
55.1d
longs pay
Short: days to 1% carry
55.1d
shorts receive
SideDirectionAnnualised carryDays → 1%Days → 10%
LONGPAY-6.632%55.1d1.51y
SHORTRECEIVE6.632%55.1d1.51y

/api/asset/hl-SOL/carry · same metrics, JSON

Volume profile

▸ real volume · Hyperliquid candlesstep $ 1 · 25 records
Price binBarsVolumeDistribution
$69.0000–$70.00001$345.47K
$68.0000–$69.0000★20$1.40M
$67.0000–$68.00004$167.39K

★ POC = Point of Control (highest-volume bin). Live JSON: /api/asset/hl-SOL/volprofile?priceStep=1

Order flow

▸ BALANCED · +0.002 · Hyperliquid candles
Bars (buy / sell)
11 / 13
1 unclassified
Buy weight
$933.77K
real volume
Sell weight
$930.39K
real volume
Net delta
$3.37K
buyers net
Imbalance
0.18%
(buy − sell) / (buy + sell)
Toxicity (VPIN)
0.2%
two-sided / balanced
Impact (|Δp|/vol)
—
needs real volume

Sparkline = cumulative delta over the 25-record window./api/asset/hl-SOL/flow?rollingWindow=30

Cascade clusters

▸ DOWN · 4 found · deepest 1.30% · Hyperliquid candles

Price-only proxy for forced-unwind clusters. No exchange liquidation feed is wired — read each row as a candidate event, not a confirmed liquidation.

#WindowDurationPeak → TroughDrawdownBars
#12026-06-14 11:00:00Z3.0h68.4630→67.57001.304%4
#22026-06-14 04:00:00Z2.0h68.9730→68.17501.157%3
#32026-06-13 16:00:00Z2.0h68.5760→67.96800.887%3

/api/asset/hl-SOL/cascades?windowMs=10800000&minDrawdownPct=0.005 · full list + parameters in JSON

Risk metrics

▸ sovereign store · 5,000 barsperiods/year ≈ 5.26M
Realized vol (annualised)
30.05%
σ per bar = 0.000131
Mean return (annualised)
-1170.10%
μ per bar = -0.000002
Sharpe (rf=0)
-38.94
annualised; risk-free assumed zero
Max drawdown
1.46%
peak 68.48 → trough 67.48 over 1936 bars

/api/asset/hl-SOL/risk · same metrics, JSON