HYPERLIQUID · PERPETUAL FUTURES

SKR

SKR-USD perpetual · 24/7 trading on Hyperliquid

▸ Advanced metrics · M2M bundle

hyperliquid · perp-skr · fresh · feed 4s old
24h sparkline · 60 pts▲ 9.51%
realized vol (ann.)
282.51%
max drawdown
10.10%
sharpe
-90.44
ulcer index
7.65%
RMS drawdown
pain index
7.16%
mean drawdown
mod. VaR 95%
0.07%
Cornish-Fisher
martin ratio
-3340.90
ret / ulcer
CDaR 95%
9.94%
cond. drawdown
gain/pain
0.86
Σgain / Σ|loss|
sterling
-2571.52
ret / CDaR
omega (θ=0)
0.86
upside/downside
roll spread
0.0 bps
implied (price-only)
bars used
2000
store
spread
—
24h Δ
9.51%
flow lean
—
carry
shorts_pay
-6.79%
signalLONGconfidence 45%suggested side: BUY
  • 24h change +9.51%
  • funding: shorts pay — perp longs get paid to wait
  • mark cheap vs HL oracle by 21.6bps — long bias
Same bundle via M2M API: /api/m2m/hl-SKR/bundle · venue execution: hyperliquid →
LIVEPOLL0SRCFRESH3.9s⏱--:--:-- UTC8NEXT8.0sUP0s--:--HIST0/30
▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC FRESH·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC FRESH·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·
MARK · live
$0.010
24h Δ · live
9.51%
24h vol · live
$0.6M
SKR · live 24h price
n=25 · μ=0.0094 · σ=0.0006 · range [0.0088, 0.0111] · R²=0.638▲ RISING +9.32%σ HIGH 6.27%LAST 0.00970.01110.01050.01000.00940.0088μ = 0.0094max 0.0111min 0.0088dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.64μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxminlive endpoint
25 closes · last $0.01
Funding direction · live
Long fee 47.0%Short fee 53.0%SHORT FEE53.0%
Σ = 0.0%
Σ-sides total = 0.00% (100.00pp arb gap)
H(p) entropy = 0.997 / 1.00 bits (100%) · max uncertainty (~50/50)
Long fee
47.0%▬ +0.00pp
Short fee
53.0%▬ +0.00pp
1h funding -0.000775% · shorts pay
Hourly contract volume · live
n=25 · Σ=61,599,320 · μ=2463972.8 · σ=4204651.7 · CV=1.71BURSTY · concentratedcumulative energy ↗ · 50% by h=2103,955,4667,910,93211,866,39715,821,863μ = 246397315,821,86350%h1h5h9h13h17h21h25#1 peak#2-3> μactivequietμ linecum energy
peak 15821863 contracts
Live numerics · pulse on poll
LIVE NUMERICS9 metrics·POLL 0
⏱snapshot age
3.9s
$mark $
$0.0097
$mid $
$0.0097
◉prev-day close
$0.0089
Δ24h Δ %
+9.509%
$24h vol $
$625.01k
◐open interest $
$358.91k
%funding (1h)
-0.000775%
%funding (yr)
-6.79%/yr

§1 · 24h time-series

Close price · hourly
n=25 · μ=0.0094 · σ=0.0006 · range [0.0088, 0.0111] · R²=0.638▲ RISING +9.32%σ HIGH 6.27%LAST 0.00970.01110.01050.01000.00940.0088μ = 0.0094max 0.0111min 0.0088dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.64μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
mark $0.0097 · 24h 9.51% · range $[0.0088, 0.0111]
OHLC candles · hourly
n=25 · up 13 · down 12 (52% up) · range [0.0088, 0.0113] · σ=0.0006 · CV=0.06 · bodyµ=48%BULLISH +9.29%CLOSE 0.0097 vs OPEN 0.0089 (+9.29%)&#9650; CLOSE 0.00970.01130.01070.01010.00940.0088μ close = 0.0094O0.009 H0.009 L0.009 C0.009 (-0.02%)O0.009 H0.009 L0.009 C0.009 (-0.02%)O0.009 H0.009 L0.009 C0.009 (+0.69%)O0.009 H0.009 L0.009 C0.009 (+0.69%)O0.009 H0.009 L0.009 C0.009 (-1.04%)O0.009 H0.009 L0.009 C0.009 (-1.04%)O0.009 H0.009 L0.009 C0.009 (+0.21%)O0.009 H0.009 L0.009 C0.009 (+0.21%)O0.009 H0.009 L0.009 C0.009 (-0.43%)O0.009 H0.009 L0.009 C0.009 (-0.43%)O0.009 H0.009 L0.009 C0.009 (+0.09%)O0.009 H0.009 L0.009 C0.009 (+0.09%)O0.009 H0.009 L0.009 C0.009 (-0.39%)O0.009 H0.009 L0.009 C0.009 (-0.39%)O0.009 H0.009 L0.009 C0.009 (+1.05%)O0.009 H0.009 L0.009 C0.009 (+1.05%)O0.009 H0.009 L0.009 C0.009 (-0.27%)O0.009 H0.009 L0.009 C0.009 (-0.27%)O0.009 H0.009 L0.009 C0.009 (-0.34%)O0.009 H0.009 L0.009 C0.009 (-0.34%)O0.009 H0.009 L0.009 C0.009 (+0.98%)O0.009 H0.009 L0.009 C0.009 (+0.98%)O0.009 H0.009 L0.009 C0.009 (+2.40%)O0.009 H0.009 L0.009 C0.009 (+2.40%)O0.009 H0.009 L0.009 C0.009 (-0.21%)O0.009 H0.009 L0.009 C0.009 (-0.21%)O0.009 H0.009 L0.009 C0.009 (+1.29%)O0.009 H0.009 L0.009 C0.009 (+1.29%)O0.009 H0.010 L0.009 C0.009 (+1.32%)O0.009 H0.010 L0.009 C0.009 (+1.32%)O0.009 H0.010 L0.009 C0.010 (+2.15%)O0.009 H0.010 L0.009 C0.010 (+2.15%)O0.010 H0.010 L0.010 C0.010 (-0.74%)O0.010 H0.010 L0.010 C0.010 (-0.74%)O0.010 H0.010 L0.009 C0.009 (-0.91%)O0.010 H0.010 L0.009 C0.009 (-0.91%)O0.009 H0.010 L0.009 C0.010 (+1.79%)O0.009 H0.010 L0.009 C0.010 (+1.79%)O0.010 H0.011 L0.010 C0.011 (+10.39%)O0.010 H0.011 L0.010 C0.011 (+10.39%)O0.011 H0.011 L0.011 C0.011 (+3.93%)O0.011 H0.011 L0.011 C0.011 (+3.93%)-9.1%O0.011 H0.011 L0.010 C0.010 (-9.10%)O0.011 H0.011 L0.010 C0.010 (-9.10%)O0.010 H0.010 L0.010 C0.010 (-1.53%)O0.010 H0.010 L0.010 C0.010 (-1.53%)O0.010 H0.010 L0.010 C0.010 (-2.06%)O0.010 H0.010 L0.010 C0.010 (-2.06%)O0.010 H0.010 L0.010 C0.010 (+0.06%)O0.010 H0.010 L0.010 C0.010 (+0.06%)#1#5#9#13#17#21#25up bar (C≥O)down bar (C<O)MA(5) closeμ closedoji (~no body)biggest body
25 bars
Hourly volume (base units)
n=25 · Σ=61,599,320 · μ=2463972.8 · σ=4204651.7 · CV=1.71BURSTY · concentratedcumulative energy &nearr; · 50% by h=2103,955,4667,910,93211,866,39715,821,863μ = 2463973463,645 · 2.9% peak463,645 · 2.9% peak2,589,941 · 16.4% peak2,589,941 · 16.4% peak326,625 · 2.1% peak326,625 · 2.1% peak363,987 · 2.3% peak363,987 · 2.3% peak245,902 · 1.6% peak245,902 · 1.6% peak577,373 · 3.6% peak577,373 · 3.6% peak359,086 · 2.3% peak359,086 · 2.3% peak439,850 · 2.8% peak439,850 · 2.8% peak316,656 · 2.0% peak316,656 · 2.0% peak272,156 · 1.7% peak272,156 · 1.7% peak638,352 · 4.0% peak638,352 · 4.0% peak895,535 · 5.7% peak895,535 · 5.7% peak763,020 · 4.8% peak763,020 · 4.8% peak1,482,506 · 9.4% peak1,482,506 · 9.4% peak1,514,518 · 9.6% peak1,514,518 · 9.6% peak2,015,911 · 12.7% peak2,015,911 · 12.7% peak476,913 · 3.0% peak476,913 · 3.0% peak507,718 · 3.2% peak507,718 · 3.2% peak685,873 · 4.3% peak685,873 · 4.3% peak9,009,837 · 56.9% peak9,009,837 · 56.9% peak14,094,774 · 89.1% peak14,094,774 · 89.1% peak15,821,86315,821,863 · 100.0% peak15,821,863 · 100.0% peak4,661,798 · 29.5% peak4,661,798 · 29.5% peak1,748,956 · 11.1% peak1,748,956 · 11.1% peak1,326,525 · 8.4% peak1,326,525 · 8.4% peak50%#1#5#9#13#17#21#25#1 peak#2-3> μactivequietμ linecum energy
Σ vol 61599320 · peak 15821863 · CV 1.71

§2 · Returns distribution (log-returns)

Histogram of rₜ = ln(pₜ/pₜ₋₁)
n=24 · 12 bins · μ=0.0014 · σ=0.0294 · skew=0.10 (symmetric) · kurt=4.09 (leptokurtic (fat tails))118630 1-872.28bpbin -872.28bp · n=1 · 9.1% peakbin -872.28bp · n=1 · 9.1% peak-711.19bp-550.10bp-389.01bp 2-227.91bpbin -227.91bp · n=2 · 18.2% peakbin -227.91bp · n=2 · 18.2% peak 11-66.82bpbin -66.82bp · n=11 · 100.0% peakbin -66.82bp · n=11 · 100.0% peak 694.27bpbin 94.27bp · n=6 · 54.5% peakbin 94.27bp · n=6 · 54.5% peak 2255.37bpbin 255.37bp · n=2 · 18.2% peakbin 255.37bp · n=2 · 18.2% peak 1416.46bpbin 416.46bp · n=1 · 9.1% peakbin 416.46bp · n=1 · 9.1% peak577.55bp738.65bp 1899.74bpbin 899.74bp · n=1 · 9.1% peakbin 899.74bp · n=1 · 9.1% peakμΔ < 0 · loss barsΔ ≈ 0 · flatΔ > 0 · gain barsN(μ,σ²) referenceμ line · ±σ band shaded
n=24 · positive 13 · negative 11
Q-Q plot · standardised rₜ vs N(0,1)
n=24 · skew=-0.12 · kurt=5.04 · near 11 / mid 11 / far 2 · OLS slope=0.90 intercept=-0.00LEPTOKURTIC — FAT TAILSUPPER TAIL NORMALLOWER TAIL NORMAL-3σ-3σ-2σ-2σ-1σ-1σ+0σ+0σ+1σ+1σ+2σ+2σ+3σ+3σsample ↓marginal: sample bars + theoretical N(0,1) curve →theoretical Φ⁻¹(p) →↑ sample z-quantile|Δ| < 0.3σ · on the line|Δ| < 1σ · moderate|Δ| ≥ 1σ · outliery = x refOLS fit

§3 · Spot quote

Mark price
$0.0097
Mid price
$0.0097
24h change
+9.51%
Mark–mid spread
0.00 bps
Prev-day close
$0.0089

§4 · Sample moments (prices)

Descriptive statistics · 5-number summary · shape diagnostics
SAMPLE MOMENTS · N=25STRONGLY RIGHT-SKEWED (G₁=1.22)
μ MEAN0.0094$95% CI: [0.0092$, 0.0096$]
σ STD DEV0.0006$σ² = 0.003×10⁻⁴ · CV = 6.27%
med MEDIAN0.0092$Q₁ 0.0089$ · Q₃ 0.0097$
FIVE-NUMBER SUMMARY · BOX PLOTrange 0.0023$ · IQR 0.0008$ (1.349σ→0.0008$)
min 0.0088$Q₁ 0.0089$med 0.0092$Q₃ 0.0097$max 0.0111$μ
SKEWNESS · G₁1.222right-skewed
−3−10+1+3
EXCESS KURTOSIS · G₂0.955mesokurtic · normal-like
−30+2+4+6
μ ↔ medianμ > med · right-tailed|μ−med| / σ = 0.30
σ × 1.349 ↔ IQRconsistent with normalratio = 1.05
range ↔ σconcentrated (range < 4σ)range / σ = 3.84
μ = mean · σ = standard deviation · CV = coefficient of variation. Skew (G₁): >0 right-skewed. Kurt (G₂, excess): >0 leptokurtic. 95% CI = μ ± 1.96·SE.

§5 · Returns analytics (log-returns)

Risk-adjusted performance · log-returns
RETURNS · RISK-ADJUSTEDEXCEPTIONAL EDGE · SR=10.97
μᵣ MEAN / h+0.371202%drift is positive per h · |μ|/σ = 0.117
σᵣ STD / h3.166845%σ²ᵣ = 10.029×10⁻⁴ · CV = 8.53×
σ ANNUALISED296.40%/yrscaled by √8760 (hourly→yearly) · 3.167%/h base
RISK-ADJUSTED PERFORMANCEhigher = better edge per unit risk
SHARPE (annualised)10.97excellent · top-decile
-2-10+1+2+3+4
SORTINO (annualised)11.50strong downside-adjusted
-2-10+1+2+3+4
CALMAR (return / max-DD)100.00exceptional DD control
-20+2+4+6
RETURN-DISTRIBUTION SHAPE|skew| < 0.5 ≈ symmetric · |kurt| < 1 ≈ mesokurtic
SKEWNESS · G₁-0.13approximately symmetric
-3-10+1+3
EXCESS KURTOSIS · G₂6.57leptokurtic · fat tails
-30+2+4+6
SORTINO vs SHARPEdownside ≈ total vol · symmetricSoR / SR = 1.05
CALMAR · DD CONTROLdrawdown control exceptionalCR = 100.00
EXPECTED EDGE+3251.73%/yr driftμ × 8760 = annualised expectation
rₜ = ln(pₜ/pₜ₋₁). σ × √8760 = annualised. Sharpe = μ/σ scaled; Sortino uses downside-only vol; Calmar = annual return / max drawdown.

§6 · Risk metrics

Tail risk + drawdown · downside diagnostics
TAIL & DRAWDOWN RISKHIGH · 95% VaR 1.96%
VaR₉₅ (h)1.960%5% prob of larger adverse h move
VaR₉₉ (h)7.800%1% prob · extreme-tail threshold
ES₉₅ (CVaR)5.771%expected loss given 5% tail event
MAX DRAWDOWN12.39%4h from peak to trough
TAIL-RISK LADDER (h losses)larger negative = worse · markers show severity
0 · no lossVaR₉₅−1.960%VaR₉₉−7.800%ES₉₅−5.771%worst tail ←→ zero loss
MAX DRAWDOWN PROFILEsignificant drawdown · 4h duration
PEAK1.11$
−12.39% drawdown over 4h
0.97$TROUGH
ES / VaR · TAIL THICKNESSextreme fat tail · ES ≫ VaR|ES₉₅| / |VaR₉₅| = 2.95× (normal ≈ 1.25)
VaR₉₉ / VaR₉₅ · CONCENTRATIONextreme-tail dominated · severe outliersratio = 3.98× (normal ≈ 1.41)
DRAWDOWN · CAPITAL DURATIONsignificant drawdownrecovery needed: +14.15% (compounding)
VaR = quantile loss · ES (CVaR) = expected loss conditional on tail · DD = peak-to-trough decline. Under normality ES₉₅/VaR₉₅ ≈ 1.25; ratio > 1.5 ⇒ fat-tail regime.

§7 · Technicals

RSI(14)
54.5 · neutral
Bollinger %B
0.587 · within band
Bollinger upper
$0.0107
Bollinger MA
$0.0095
Bollinger lower
$0.0083

§8 · Time-series structure

Regime & autocorrelation diagnostics
TIME-SERIES STRUCTUREREGIME: INDETERMINATE · weak signal at n=24
ρ(1) AUTOCORR+0.157within white-noise band
ρ(2) AUTOCORR-0.387lag-2 not significant
H · HURST EXPONENT0.950strongly persistent
OLS TREND · t-STAT+6.364significant @ α=0.05
HURST EXPONENT [0, 1]strongly persistent · H = 0.950
H = 0.950STRONGLY PERSISTENT
0
anti-persistent0.45
mean-reverting0.5
random walk0.55
persistent1
strongly trending
AUTOCORRELATION FUNCTION · ρ(k) for k=1..5WHITE NOISE · no significant lags
k=1+0.157k=2-0.387k=3-0.217k=4+0.041k=5+0.0760+1−1+0.41−0.41+ momentum (ρ > +0.41)− reversal (ρ < −0.41)noise (within band)±2/√n threshold
OLS TREND · t-STAT · [-5, +5]SIGNIFICANT @ 1% (|t|=6.36)
−5 reject−1.960 retain H₀+1.96+5 reject
REGIME CLASSIFICATIONINDETERMINATE · weak signal at n=24from Hurst + ρ(1) joint diagnosis
PREDICTABILITY · score 1.00very high · strong structure|ρ(1)| + 2·|H − 0.5| heuristic
TREND SIGNIFICANCESIGNIFICANT @ 1% (|t|=6.36)α=0.05 critical |t|=1.96 · α=0.01 |t|=2.58
ρ(k) = lag-k sample autocorrelation · H = R/S Hurst exponent · t = OLS-trend t-statistic. Significance bands at ±2/√n approximate the 95% white-noise envelope. α=0.05 critical |t|=1.96; α=0.01 |t|=2.58.

§9 · Microstructure

24h volume (USD)
$625.01k
Open interest (USD)
$358.91k
Vol / OI (turnover)
1.74x
1h funding
-0.000775%
Funding (annualised)
-6.79%/yr

§10 · Position sizing

Continuous Kelly (μ/σ²)
3.701× leverage · optimal log-utility leverage
Half-Kelly
1.851× · industry-standard conservative
Quarter-Kelly
0.925×

§11 · Hourly return heatmap

24-hour signed Δln-r grid · green = up · red = down
HOURLY RETURN HEATMAP · n=24 bars · best 9.80% · worst -9.53% · typical |Δ| 1.80%MILD BULLISH +8.91%BEST+9.80%09hWORST-9.53%11hTYPICAL |Δ|1.80%mean absoluteCUMULATIVE+8.91%Σ signed ΔSTREAK↘ 4down-runASIA · 00-08 UTCμ +0.82% · Σ +6.53%EUROPE · 08-16 UTCμ +0.39% · Σ +3.13%US · 16-24 UTCμ -0.09% · Σ -0.75%CUMULATIVE Δ PATH · final +8.91%+22.14%-0.67%0.68% · 15h0.68% · 15h0.68%15h-0.56% · 16h-0.56% · 16h-0.56%16h0.10% · 17h0.10% · 17h0.10%17h-0.43% · 18h-0.43% · 18h-0.43%18h0.06% · 19h0.06% · 19h0.06%19h-0.52% · 20h-0.52% · 20h-0.52%20h1.24% · 21h1.24% · 21h1.24%21h-0.46% · 22h-0.46% · 22h-0.46%22h-0.18% · 23h-0.18% · 23h-0.18%23h1.15% · 00h1.15% · 00h1.15%00h2.37% · 01h2.37% · 01h2.37%01h0.07% · 02h0.07% · 02h0.07%02h1.32% · 03h1.32% · 03h1.32%03h1.23% · 04h1.23% · 04h1.23%04h2.18% · 05h2.18% · 05h2.18%05h-0.52% · 06h-0.52% · 06h-0.52%06h-1.27% · 07h-1.27% · 07h-1.27%07h1.67% · 08h1.67% · 08h1.67%08h9.80% · 09h9.80% · 09h9.80%09h★ BEST4.20% · 10h4.20% · 10h4.20%10h-9.53% · 11h-9.53% · 11h-9.53%11h▼ WORST-1.65% · 12h-1.65% · 12h-1.65%12h-2.01% · 13h-2.01% · 13h-2.01%13h-0.04% · 14h-0.04% · 14h-0.04%14hTIME PATTERNAsia-led (+6.53%)RUNSup max 6 · down max 4BREADTH54% up · 46% down
13 up bars · 11 down · best 9.80% · worst -9.53% · typical |Δ| 1.801%

§12 · Equity curve & underwater drawdown

Cumulative compounded return + running peak-to-trough
EQUITY & DRAWDOWN ANALYSIS · n=25 barsPROFITABLE +8.05%FINAL+8.05%MAX DD-12.85%RECOVERYONGOING · 4 barsMAX RUN-UP+23.98%UNDERWATER15/25 (60%)STREAK↘ 4EQUITY CURVE · end 1.0805 · peak 1.2398 · range [0.9933, 1.2398]1.23980.9933break-even = 1★ PEAK 1.2398UNDERWATER DRAWDOWN · max -12.85% · significant0%-12.85%▼ TROUGH -12.85%TOP DRAWDOWN PERIODS · 3 total#1 -12.85%bar 22-25 · 4 bars · ONGOING#2 -1.78%bar 17-19 · 3 bars · recovered#3 -1.34%bar 3-10 · 8 bars · recoveredDD SEVERITYsignificant (max -12.85%)RECOVERYongoing · 4 barsTIME UNDER WATER60% of session · 15/25 bars
final equity 1.0805 (8.05%) · max DD -12.85% · time-under-water 15/25 bars

§13 · Rolling-window statistics (w = 6 bars)

Rolling annualised Sharpe ratio · green positive · red negative
n=19 · +15 / −4 (79% positive) · μ=39.03 · σ=44.51PROFITABLE STRATEGYLAST 1.86 (-0.84σ vs μ)156.7078.350.00-78.35-156.70μ = 39.03-21.44-21.44-2.57-2.57-0.26-0.26-6.85-6.8525.5125.5148.0748.0760.5960.5961.2561.2599.9299.92156.70156.7090.6790.6736.2536.2553.2953.2951.6051.6062.6162.6110.6010.607.797.795.945.941.861.86v > 0 · positivev < 0 · negativeμ mean lineμ ± σ bandlatest bar (outlined)
latest 1.858 · range [-21.44, 156.70] · μ 39.029 · positive Sharpe = excess-return-per-risk earned by buying-and-holding through this window
Rolling annualised volatility (%)
n=19 · μ=226.8439 · σ=221.0738 · range [45.3067, 611.0156] · R²=0.733▲ RISING +1242.72%σ EXTREME 97.46%LAST 608.3401611.0156469.5884328.1612186.733945.3067μ = 226.8439max 611.0156min 45.3067dataMA(3)OLS R²=0.73μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
latest 608.34% · range [45.31%, 611.02%] · μ 226.84% · σ̂ scaled to annualised (×√8760)
Rolling lag-1 autocorrelation ρ(1)
n=19 · +7 / −12 (37% positive) · μ=-0.150 · σ=0.294CLOSE TO MARTINGALELAST 0.101 (+0.85σ vs μ)0.5920.2960.000-0.296-0.592μ = -0.150-0.546-0.546-0.351-0.351-0.592-0.592-0.528-0.528-0.461-0.461-0.002-0.002-0.053-0.053-0.014-0.014-0.339-0.339-0.452-0.452-0.476-0.4760.1870.187-0.013-0.0130.0920.0920.2730.2730.0250.0250.1310.1310.1650.1650.1010.101v > 0 · positivev < 0 · negativeμ mean lineμ ± σ bandlatest bar (outlined)
latest 0.101 · |ρ| > 0.3 ⇒ regime with persistence (ρ > 0) or reversal (ρ < 0) · |ρ| ≤ 0.1 = consistent with random walk

§14 · Hypothesis tests (α = 0.05)

Formal inference at 5% significance
2 of 6 REJECT · mixed evidence2 reject·4 pass·α = 0.05
𝒩

Jarque-Bera

REJECT H₀***

H₀: Δln-r ~ Normal(μ, σ²)

STATISTIC
43.2497
p-VALUE (log scale)
< 0.0001
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p < α · rejection zonenon-normal · fat tails or skew present
ρ

Ljung-Box(h=5)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: No serial autocorrelation up to lag 5

STATISTIC
6.5595
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.2546
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedconsistent with white noise
Ψ

Dickey-Fuller (τ_μ)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: p has a unit root (non-stationary)

STATISTIC
-1.4162
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.5732
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedrandom-walk behaviour (crit ≈ -2.86)
±

Wald-Wolfowitz runs

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Sign sequence of Δ is random

STATISTIC
-0.3854
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.6999
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedsigns appear random (12 runs)
χ

KPSS (μ stationarity)

REJECT H₀*

H₀: p IS level-stationary

STATISTIC
0.7126
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.0124
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p < α · rejection zonenon-stationary (crit 0.463)
χ

Variance ratio q=3

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Δln-r is a random walk · VR = 1

STATISTIC
0.0924
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.9264
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedVR 1.028 ≈ 1 (RW behaviour)
Each row states an explicit null H₀, the test statistic, an approximated p-value, and the decision. REJECT means evidence against H₀. KPSS complements ADF (rejecting both ⇒ ambiguous; rejecting one ⇒ clean verdict).

§15 · Spectral analysis (DFT periodogram)

Power spectrum of Δln-r · ‖X̂(k)‖²/n
n=12 bins · noise floor μ=9.61e-4 · top T=4.00h (18.5%) · top-3 cover 53.9%BROADBAND · 3 CYCLEScumulative energy ↗ (3 bins above 2× noise)2.1e-31.6e-31.1e-35.3e-40.0e+0μ noise floor2× noise (significance)period 24.0 · power 7.85e-4 · 6.8% energyperiod 24.0 · power 7.85e-4 · 6.8% energyperiod 12.0 · power 3.86e-4 · 3.3% energyperiod 12.0 · power 3.86e-4 · 3.3% energyperiod 8.0 · power 1.31e-3 · 11.3% energyperiod 8.0 · power 1.31e-3 · 11.3% energyperiod 6.0 · power 1.95e-3 · 16.9% energyperiod 6.0 · power 1.95e-3 · 16.9% energyperiod 4.8 · power 2.13e-3 · 18.5% energyperiod 4.8 · power 2.13e-3 · 18.5% energyperiod 4.0 · power 2.14e-3 · 18.5% energyperiod 4.0 · power 2.14e-3 · 18.5% energyperiod 3.4 · power 5.57e-4 · 4.8% energyperiod 3.4 · power 5.57e-4 · 4.8% energyperiod 3.0 · power 9.99e-4 · 8.7% energyperiod 3.0 · power 9.99e-4 · 8.7% energyperiod 2.7 · power 4.18e-4 · 3.6% energyperiod 2.7 · power 4.18e-4 · 3.6% energyperiod 2.4 · power 4.62e-4 · 4.0% energyperiod 2.4 · power 4.62e-4 · 4.0% energyperiod 2.2 · power 4.07e-4 · 3.5% energyperiod 2.2 · power 4.07e-4 · 3.5% energyperiod 2.0 · power 1.51e-6 · 0.0% energyperiod 2.0 · power 1.51e-6 · 0.0% energy50% by T=4.8h#1 dominantT=4.00h#2T=4.80h#3T=6.00hT=2hT=3hT=4hT=6hT=8hT=12hT=16hT=24h← shorter cycle (high freq · Nyquist=½) · period T (bars per cycle) · longer cycle (low freq · 1/n) →#1 dominant#2 peak#3 peak> 2× noisenoiseμ floor2μ sig.cum energy
dominant period ≈ 4.00h (freq 0.250) · concentrates 18.5% of total energy · Σ|X̂|²/n = 1.153e-2

▸ Depth section using sovereign-store price series (5000 bars · effective 5257847 bars/year) — annualisation reflects native polling cadence, not upstream timeframes.

§16 · NOSTRADAMUS continuous quant — perp leverage & bootstrap MC

Continuous-price extension of the prediction-market quant module. Kelly growth on observed returns (Merton μ/σ² parametric vs argmax empirical), Monte-Carlo equity fan bootstrapped from the historical return distribution at quarter-Kelly leverage, and an annualized return decomposition. Sweep parameters in the simulator.

§17 · Continuous Kelly

Continuous-Kelly growth · g(f) = E[ln(1 + f·r)]
f★ empirical 1.12× · g(f★) 0.000%/barparametric μ/σ² 1.11× · μ 0.000% · σ 0.13%
μ per barmean
0.000%
σ per barvol
0.13%
Empirical f★argmax g(f)
1.12×
from observed distribution
Parametric f★μ/σ²
1.11×
Merton continuous-time
Half-Kelly½ f★
0.56×
~⅔ of full growth, half the variance
Quarter-Kelly¼ f★
0.28×
industry default — survives model error
-0.00%-0.00%-0.00%-0.00%0.00%0.0×0.8×1.5×2.3×3.0×3.8×f★ empμ/σ²leverage fraction fexpected log-growth per bar
g(f) empiricalf★ argmaxparametric f★
Maximum expected log-growth from leveraging the historical return distribution. Empirical f★ argmaxes the sample expectation; parametric f★ = μ/σ² is Merton's continuous-time optimum.

§18 · MC equity fan

Bootstrapped equity fan at 0.28× leverage
Median CAGR/bar 0.000% · annualized Sharpe 3.81400 paths × 720 bars · leverage 0.28× · bootstrap from 4999 observed returns
Sharpe / barμ/σ
0.002
annualized 3.81
μ per barafter L
0.000%
σ per barafter L
0.04%
VaR 95%5%
0.05%
per-bar worst-case
CVaR 95%ES
0.09%
mean tail loss
Max DD (median)MDD
-0.1%
0.93×0.96×0.99×1.01×1.04×1.07×0120240360480600720startbar #equity multiple
median25/75 band5/95 band
Median path with 25/75 and 5/95 percentile bands across 400 simulated careers. Bars resample with replacement from the observed return distribution — preserves fat tails the parametric model misses.

§19 · Annualized breakdown

Annualized return components
APR 1000% · APY 1000% · Sharpe 3.34σ ann 300% · Sortino 3.08 · n 4999 · ⚠ capped (n=4999 too small to support 8760-bar projection)
0%240%480%720%960%1200%1000.0%APR (simple)1000.0%APY (compound)299.7%Ann. vol σ333.7%Sharpe (ann)308.3%Sortino (ann)
Simple APR vs compounded APY · annualized volatility · risk-adjusted Sharpe and Sortino. All scaled by √(periods/yr).

§20 · GARCH(1,1) volatility band

GARCH(1,1) · conditional vol envelope (±2σ)
GARCH persistence α+β = 0.980· σ̂ₜ = 1.000% · long-run σ = 2.236%
0.0090.0100.0100.0110.0110.012t-4999t-4166t-3333t-2500t-1666t-833t-0

Persistence near 1 ⇒ vol clusters strongly (slow mean reversion). Long-run σ is the unconditional target the conditional vol orbits. The ±2σ band reflects time-varying scale, unlike a flat-vol band.

Time-varying volatility band fitted to the price series. Persistence α+β > 0.98 means vol shocks decay slowly — recent moves stay relevant.

§∞ · Provenance & attestation

Upstream
api.hyperliquid.xyz
Snapshot fetched
2026-06-14 14:31:23 UTC
Snapshot age
3.9s
History points
25 hourly closes
Page rendered
2026-06-14 14:31:23 UTC
Storage policy
no persistence — fetched on every request
SHA-256 attestation
7b540e46d78d9579b25fc7d446969aa05376847e9e1d95afd0851dd67e071144 · deterministic hash of the source snapshot — proves this page was rendered from this exact data
Open data licence
CC0 / public domain · free to mirror, syndicate, analyse

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Also see: /arb opportunities · RSS feed

Market depth

▸ live order book · Hyperliquid perp
Depth within 1bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Depth within 5bp
$1.11K
bid $356 · ask $756
Depth within 10bp
$3.99K
bid $1.93K · ask $2.05K
Depth within 50bp
$21.61K
bid $10.69K · ask $10.91K
Mid price
0.009720
(best bid + best ask) / 2
Spread
9.3bp
(bestAsk − bestBid) / mid
Imbalance (whole book)
-0.155
ask-heavy
Imbalance (top-5)
-0.261
ask-heavy top-of-book

Slippage scenarios

▸ live book walk · Hyperliquid perp

Simulating a market order at three notionals against the live book. Slippage = avg execution price vs. mid, in basis points. Worst fill = price of the deepest level touched. Live JSON: /api/asset/hl-SKR/slippage?size=10000&side=buy

SideNotionalAvg fillSlippageWorst fillLevelsStatus
BUY$1.00K0.0097254.88bp0.0097262FILLED
BUY$10.00K0.00974525.30bp0.00976011FILLED
BUY$100.00K0.00976545.40bp0.00979320PARTIAL
SELL$1.00K0.0097146.42bp0.0097133FILLED
SELL$10.00K0.00969625.12bp0.00967813FILLED
SELL$100.00K0.00968833.48bp0.00966120PARTIAL

Funding carry

▸ SHORTS PAY · longs receive
Hourly funding
-7.746e-6
-0.00077% / hr
Annualised APR
-6.790%
hourly · 24 · 365.25
Long: days to 1% carry
53.8d
longs receive
Short: days to 1% carry
53.8d
shorts pay
SideDirectionAnnualised carryDays → 1%Days → 10%
LONGRECEIVE6.790%53.8d1.47y
SHORTPAY-6.790%53.8d1.47y

/api/asset/hl-SKR/carry · same metrics, JSON

Volume profile

▸ real volume · Hyperliquid candlesstep $ 1 · 25 records
Price binBarsVolumeDistribution
$0.000000–$1.0000★25$61.60M

★ POC = Point of Control (highest-volume bin). Live JSON: /api/asset/hl-SKR/volprofile?priceStep=1

Order flow

▸ BID-LEAN · +0.147 · Hyperliquid candles
Bars (buy / sell)
13 / 11
1 unclassified
Buy weight
$35.07M
real volume
Sell weight
$26.06M
real volume
Net delta
$9.01M
buyers net
Imbalance
14.73%
(buy − sell) / (buy + sell)
Toxicity (VPIN)
14.7%
two-sided / balanced
Impact (|Δp|/vol)
—
needs real volume

Sparkline = cumulative delta over the 25-record window./api/asset/hl-SKR/flow?rollingWindow=30

Cascade clusters

▸ DOWN · 6 found · deepest 12.39% · Hyperliquid candles

Price-only proxy for forced-unwind clusters. No exchange liquidation feed is wired — read each row as a candidate event, not a confirmed liquidation.

#WindowDurationPeak → TroughDrawdownBars
#12026-06-14 11:00:00Z3.0h0.011102→0.00972612.394%4
#22026-06-14 06:00:00Z1.0h0.009662→0.0094911.770%2
#32026-06-13 20:00:00Z0ms0.008917→0.0088380.886%1

/api/asset/hl-SKR/cascades?windowMs=10800000&minDrawdownPct=0.005 · full list + parameters in JSON

Risk metrics

▸ sovereign store · 5,000 barsperiods/year ≈ 5.26M
Realized vol (annualised)
299.74%
σ per bar = 0.001307
Mean return (annualised)
1000.36%
μ per bar = 0.000002
Sharpe (rf=0)
3.34
annualised; risk-free assumed zero
Max drawdown
14.45%
peak 0.01 → trough 0.01 over 1914 bars

/api/asset/hl-SKR/risk · same metrics, JSON