HYPERLIQUID · PERPETUAL FUTURES

S

S-USD perpetual · 24/7 trading on Hyperliquid

▸ Advanced metrics · M2M bundle

hyperliquid · perp-s · fresh · feed 0s old
24h sparkline · 60 pts▼ -2.84%
realized vol (ann.)
53.52%
max drawdown
1.26%
sharpe
-20.44
ulcer index
0.55%
RMS drawdown
pain index
0.46%
mean drawdown
mod. VaR 95%
0.03%
Cornish-Fisher
martin ratio
-2003.31
ret / ulcer
CDaR 95%
1.06%
cond. drawdown
gain/pain
0.96
Σgain / Σ|loss|
sterling
-1033.37
ret / CDaR
omega (θ=0)
0.96
upside/downside
roll spread
0.0 bps
implied (price-only)
bars used
2000
store
spread
—
24h Δ
-2.84%
flow lean
—
carry
shorts_pay
-19.16%
signalNEUTRALconfidence 34%
  • 24h change -2.84%
  • funding: shorts pay — perp longs get paid to wait
  • mark cheap vs HL oracle by 15.3bps — long bias
Same bundle via M2M API: /api/m2m/hl-S/bundle · venue execution: hyperliquid →
LIVEPOLL0SRCFRESH274ms⏱--:--:-- UTC8NEXT8.0sUP0s--:--HIST0/30
▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC FRESH·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC FRESH·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·
MARK · live
$0.030
24h Δ · live
-2.84%
24h vol · live
$0.1M
S · live 24h price
n=25 · μ=0.0305 · σ=0.0003 · range [0.0300, 0.0310] · R²=0.944▼ FALLING -2.97%σ NORMAL 1.02%LAST 0.03000.03100.03070.03050.03020.0300μ = 0.0305max 0.0310min 0.0300dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.94μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxminlive endpoint
25 closes · last $0.03
Funding direction · live
Long fee 48.9%Short fee 51.1%SHORT FEE51.1%
Σ = 0.0%
Σ-sides total = 0.00% (100.00pp arb gap)
H(p) entropy = 1.000 / 1.00 bits (100%) · max uncertainty (~50/50)
Long fee
48.9%▬ +0.00pp
Short fee
51.1%▬ +0.00pp
1h funding -0.002187% · shorts pay
Hourly contract volume · live
n=25 · Σ=3,950,780 · μ=158031.2 · σ=84410.5 · CV=0.53STEADY FLOWcumulative energy ↗ · 50% by h=12084,440168,881253,321337,761μ = 158031337,76150%h1h5h9h13h17h21h25#1 peak#2-3> μactivequietμ linecum energy
peak 337761 contracts
Live numerics · pulse on poll
LIVE NUMERICS9 metrics·POLL 0
⏱snapshot age
274ms
$mark $
$0.03
$mid $
$0.03
◉prev-day close
$0.0308
Δ24h Δ %
-2.837%
$24h vol $
$118.89k
◐open interest $
$670.27k
%funding (1h)
-0.002187%
%funding (yr)
-19.16%/yr

§1 · 24h time-series

Close price · hourly
n=25 · μ=0.0305 · σ=0.0003 · range [0.0300, 0.0310] · R²=0.944▼ FALLING -2.97%σ NORMAL 1.02%LAST 0.03000.03100.03070.03050.03020.0300μ = 0.0305max 0.0310min 0.0300dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.94μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
mark $0.0300 · 24h -2.84% · range $[0.0300, 0.0310]
OHLC candles · hourly
n=25 · up 10 · down 15 (40% up) · range [0.0298, 0.0311] · σ=0.0003 · CV=0.01 · bodyµ=39%BEARISH -3.10%CLOSE 0.0300 vs OPEN 0.0309 (-3.10%)&#9660; CLOSE 0.03000.03110.03080.03040.03010.0298μ close = 0.0305O0.031 H0.031 L0.031 C0.031 (-0.14%)O0.031 H0.031 L0.031 C0.031 (-0.14%)O0.031 H0.031 L0.031 C0.031 (+0.25%)O0.031 H0.031 L0.031 C0.031 (+0.25%)O0.031 H0.031 L0.031 C0.031 (-0.45%)O0.031 H0.031 L0.031 C0.031 (-0.45%)O0.031 H0.031 L0.031 C0.031 (+0.13%)O0.031 H0.031 L0.031 C0.031 (+0.13%)O0.031 H0.031 L0.031 C0.031 (-0.45%)O0.031 H0.031 L0.031 C0.031 (-0.45%)O0.031 H0.031 L0.031 C0.031 (+0.46%)O0.031 H0.031 L0.031 C0.031 (+0.46%)O0.031 H0.031 L0.031 C0.031 (-0.41%)O0.031 H0.031 L0.031 C0.031 (-0.41%)O0.031 H0.031 L0.031 C0.031 (+0.32%)O0.031 H0.031 L0.031 C0.031 (+0.32%)O0.031 H0.031 L0.031 C0.031 (-0.29%)O0.031 H0.031 L0.031 C0.031 (-0.29%)O0.031 H0.031 L0.031 C0.031 (-0.04%)O0.031 H0.031 L0.031 C0.031 (-0.04%)O0.031 H0.031 L0.031 C0.031 (-0.64%)O0.031 H0.031 L0.031 C0.031 (-0.64%)O0.031 H0.031 L0.031 C0.031 (+0.20%)O0.031 H0.031 L0.031 C0.031 (+0.20%)O0.031 H0.031 L0.031 C0.031 (-0.24%)O0.031 H0.031 L0.031 C0.031 (-0.24%)O0.031 H0.031 L0.030 C0.031 (+0.14%)O0.031 H0.031 L0.030 C0.031 (+0.14%)-0.8%O0.031 H0.031 L0.030 C0.030 (-0.75%)O0.031 H0.031 L0.030 C0.030 (-0.75%)O0.030 H0.030 L0.030 C0.030 (+0.07%)O0.030 H0.030 L0.030 C0.030 (+0.07%)O0.030 H0.031 L0.030 C0.030 (-0.45%)O0.030 H0.031 L0.030 C0.030 (-0.45%)O0.030 H0.030 L0.030 C0.030 (-0.14%)O0.030 H0.030 L0.030 C0.030 (-0.14%)O0.030 H0.030 L0.030 C0.030 (+0.30%)O0.030 H0.030 L0.030 C0.030 (+0.30%)O0.030 H0.030 L0.030 C0.030 (-0.10%)O0.030 H0.030 L0.030 C0.030 (-0.10%)O0.030 H0.030 L0.030 C0.030 (-0.48%)O0.030 H0.030 L0.030 C0.030 (-0.48%)O0.030 H0.030 L0.030 C0.030 (+0.17%)O0.030 H0.030 L0.030 C0.030 (+0.17%)O0.030 H0.030 L0.030 C0.030 (-0.28%)O0.030 H0.030 L0.030 C0.030 (-0.28%)O0.030 H0.030 L0.030 C0.030 (+0.05%)O0.030 H0.030 L0.030 C0.030 (+0.05%)O0.030 H0.030 L0.030 C0.030 (-0.34%)O0.030 H0.030 L0.030 C0.030 (-0.34%)#1#5#9#13#17#21#25up bar (C≥O)down bar (C<O)MA(5) closeμ closedoji (~no body)biggest body
25 bars
Hourly volume (base units)
n=25 · Σ=3,950,780 · μ=158031.2 · σ=84410.5 · CV=0.53STEADY FLOWcumulative energy &nearr; · 50% by h=12084,440168,881253,321337,761μ = 158031102,094 · 30.2% peak102,094 · 30.2% peak94,421 · 28.0% peak94,421 · 28.0% peak106,568 · 31.6% peak106,568 · 31.6% peak307,643 · 91.1% peak307,643 · 91.1% peak321,065 · 95.1% peak321,065 · 95.1% peak104,630 · 31.0% peak104,630 · 31.0% peak114,115 · 33.8% peak114,115 · 33.8% peak48,987 · 14.5% peak48,987 · 14.5% peak337,761337,761 · 100.0% peak337,761 · 100.0% peak168,989 · 50.0% peak168,989 · 50.0% peak212,478 · 62.9% peak212,478 · 62.9% peak103,190 · 30.6% peak103,190 · 30.6% peak130,806 · 38.7% peak130,806 · 38.7% peak40,188 · 11.9% peak40,188 · 11.9% peak110,459 · 32.7% peak110,459 · 32.7% peak136,316 · 40.4% peak136,316 · 40.4% peak243,428 · 72.1% peak243,428 · 72.1% peak170,064 · 50.4% peak170,064 · 50.4% peak95,553 · 28.3% peak95,553 · 28.3% peak215,587 · 63.8% peak215,587 · 63.8% peak142,272 · 42.1% peak142,272 · 42.1% peak139,419 · 41.3% peak139,419 · 41.3% peak280,004 · 82.9% peak280,004 · 82.9% peak164,772 · 48.8% peak164,772 · 48.8% peak59,971 · 17.8% peak59,971 · 17.8% peak50%#1#5#9#13#17#21#25#1 peak#2-3> μactivequietμ linecum energy
Σ vol 3950780 · peak 337761 · CV 0.53

§2 · Returns distribution (log-returns)

Histogram of rₜ = ln(pₜ/pₜ₋₁)
n=24 · 12 bins · μ=-0.0013 · σ=0.0032 · skew=-0.03 (symmetric) · kurt=-1.16 (platykurtic (thin tails))54310 2-65.14bpbin -65.14bp · n=2 · 40.0% peakbin -65.14bp · n=2 · 40.0% peak 2-55.57bpbin -55.57bp · n=2 · 40.0% peakbin -55.57bp · n=2 · 40.0% peak-46.01bp 5-36.45bpbin -36.45bp · n=5 · 100.0% peakbin -36.45bp · n=5 · 100.0% peak 1-26.89bpbin -26.89bp · n=1 · 20.0% peakbin -26.89bp · n=1 · 20.0% peak 2-17.33bpbin -17.33bp · n=2 · 40.0% peakbin -17.33bp · n=2 · 40.0% peak 2-7.77bpbin -7.77bp · n=2 · 40.0% peakbin -7.77bp · n=2 · 40.0% peak 21.80bpbin 1.80bp · n=2 · 40.0% peakbin 1.80bp · n=2 · 40.0% peak 311.36bpbin 11.36bp · n=3 · 60.0% peakbin 11.36bp · n=3 · 60.0% peak 120.92bpbin 20.92bp · n=1 · 20.0% peakbin 20.92bp · n=1 · 20.0% peak 330.48bpbin 30.48bp · n=3 · 60.0% peakbin 30.48bp · n=3 · 60.0% peak 140.04bpbin 40.04bp · n=1 · 20.0% peakbin 40.04bp · n=1 · 20.0% peakμΔ < 0 · loss barsΔ ≈ 0 · flatΔ > 0 · gain barsN(μ,σ²) referenceμ line · ±σ band shaded
n=24 · positive 10 · negative 14
Q-Q plot · standardised rₜ vs N(0,1)
n=24 · skew=-0.02 · kurt=-1.16 · near 24 / mid 0 / far 0 · OLS slope=1.01 intercept=-0.00APPROXIMATELY NORMALUPPER TAIL NORMALLOWER TAIL NORMAL-3σ-3σ-2σ-2σ-1σ-1σ+0σ+0σ+1σ+1σ+2σ+2σ+3σ+3σsample ↓marginal: sample bars + theoretical N(0,1) curve →theoretical Φ⁻¹(p) →↑ sample z-quantile|Δ| < 0.3σ · on the line|Δ| < 1σ · moderate|Δ| ≥ 1σ · outliery = x refOLS fit

§3 · Spot quote

Mark price
$0.03
Mid price
$0.03
24h change
-2.84%
Mark–mid spread
2.34 bps
Prev-day close
$0.0308

§4 · Sample moments (prices)

Descriptive statistics · 5-number summary · shape diagnostics
SAMPLE MOMENTS · N=25PLATYKURTIC · THIN TAILS (G₂=-1.51)
μ MEAN0.0305$95% CI: [0.0304$, 0.0306$]
σ STD DEV0.0003$σ² = 0.001×10⁻⁴ · CV = 1.02%
med MEDIAN0.0306$Q₁ 0.0303$ · Q₃ 0.0308$
FIVE-NUMBER SUMMARY · BOX PLOTrange 0.0010$ · IQR 0.0005$ (1.349σ→0.0004$)
min 0.0300$Q₁ 0.0303$med 0.0306$Q₃ 0.0308$max 0.0310$μ
SKEWNESS · G₁-0.181approximately symmetric
−3−10+1+3
EXCESS KURTOSIS · G₂-1.505platykurtic · thin tails
−30+2+4+6
μ ↔ medianμ < med · left-tailed|μ−med| / σ = 0.21
σ × 1.349 ↔ IQRconsistent with normalratio = 0.84
range ↔ σconcentrated (range < 4σ)range / σ = 3.15
μ = mean · σ = standard deviation · CV = coefficient of variation. Skew (G₁): >0 right-skewed. Kurt (G₂, excess): >0 leptokurtic. 95% CI = μ ± 1.96·SE.

§5 · Returns analytics (log-returns)

Risk-adjusted performance · log-returns
RETURNS · RISK-ADJUSTEDUNPROFITABLE · SR=-35.34
μᵣ MEAN / h-0.125683%drift is negative per h · |μ|/σ = 0.378
σᵣ STD / h0.332882%σ²ᵣ = 0.111×10⁻⁴ · CV = 2.65×
σ ANNUALISED31.16%/yrscaled by √8760 (hourly→yearly) · 0.333%/h base
RISK-ADJUSTED PERFORMANCEhigher = better edge per unit risk
SHARPE (annualised)-35.34negative edge
-2-10+1+2+3+4
SORTINO (annualised)-28.76downside drag
-2-10+1+2+3+4
CALMAR (return / max-DD)-100.00drawdown overwhelms returns
-20+2+4+6
RETURN-DISTRIBUTION SHAPE|skew| < 0.5 ≈ symmetric · |kurt| < 1 ≈ mesokurtic
SKEWNESS · G₁-0.02approximately symmetric
-3-10+1+3
EXCESS KURTOSIS · G₂-1.14platykurtic · thin tails
-30+2+4+6
SORTINO vs SHARPEdownside vol < total vol · favourableSoR / SR = 0.81
CALMAR · DD CONTROLdrawdown > returns · adverseCR = -100.00
EXPECTED EDGE-1100.98%/yr driftμ × 8760 = annualised expectation
rₜ = ln(pₜ/pₜ₋₁). σ × √8760 = annualised. Sharpe = μ/σ scaled; Sortino uses downside-only vol; Calmar = annual return / max drawdown.

§6 · Risk metrics

Tail risk + drawdown · downside diagnostics
TAIL & DRAWDOWN RISKELEVATED · 95% VaR 0.62%
VaR₉₅ (h)0.620%5% prob of larger adverse h move
VaR₉₉ (h)0.683%1% prob · extreme-tail threshold
ES₉₅ (CVaR)0.665%expected loss given 5% tail event
MAX DRAWDOWN3.17%23h from peak to trough
TAIL-RISK LADDER (h losses)larger negative = worse · markers show severity
0 · no lossVaR₉₅−0.620%VaR₉₉−0.683%ES₉₅−0.665%worst tail ←→ zero loss
MAX DRAWDOWN PROFILEmoderate drawdown · 23h duration
PEAK3.10$
−3.17% drawdown over 23h
3.00$TROUGH
ES / VaR · TAIL THICKNESSthin tails · ES ≈ VaR|ES₉₅| / |VaR₉₅| = 1.07× (normal ≈ 1.25)
VaR₉₉ / VaR₉₅ · CONCENTRATIONuniform tailratio = 1.10× (normal ≈ 1.41)
DRAWDOWN · CAPITAL DURATIONmoderate drawdownrecovery needed: +3.27% (compounding)
VaR = quantile loss · ES (CVaR) = expected loss conditional on tail · DD = peak-to-trough decline. Under normality ES₉₅/VaR₉₅ ≈ 1.25; ratio > 1.5 ⇒ fat-tail regime.

§7 · Technicals

RSI(14)
27.9 · oversold
Bollinger %B
0.113 · within band
Bollinger upper
$0.0310
Bollinger MA
$0.0304
Bollinger lower
$0.0298

§8 · Time-series structure

Regime & autocorrelation diagnostics
TIME-SERIES STRUCTUREREGIME: MEAN-REVERTING · ρ(1) -0.65 + ADF rejected
ρ(1) AUTOCORR-0.652negative · reversal
ρ(2) AUTOCORR+0.433lag-2 dependence detected
H · HURST EXPONENT0.924strongly persistent
OLS TREND · t-STAT-19.691significant @ α=0.05
HURST EXPONENT [0, 1]strongly persistent · H = 0.924
H = 0.924STRONGLY PERSISTENT
0
anti-persistent0.45
mean-reverting0.5
random walk0.55
persistent1
strongly trending
AUTOCORRELATION FUNCTION · ρ(k) for k=1..54 SIGNIFICANT LAGS · multi-lag dependence
k=1 ★-0.652k=2+0.433k=3-0.468k=4+0.409k=5-0.3820+1−1+0.41−0.41+ momentum (ρ > +0.41)− reversal (ρ < −0.41)noise (within band)±2/√n threshold
OLS TREND · t-STAT · [-5, +5]SIGNIFICANT @ 1% (|t|=19.69)
−5 reject−1.960 retain H₀+1.96+5 reject
REGIME CLASSIFICATIONMEAN-REVERTING · ρ(1) -0.65 + ADF rejectedfrom Hurst + ρ(1) joint diagnosis
PREDICTABILITY · score 1.00very high · strong structure|ρ(1)| + 2·|H − 0.5| heuristic
TREND SIGNIFICANCESIGNIFICANT @ 1% (|t|=19.69)α=0.05 critical |t|=1.96 · α=0.01 |t|=2.58
ρ(k) = lag-k sample autocorrelation · H = R/S Hurst exponent · t = OLS-trend t-statistic. Significance bands at ±2/√n approximate the 95% white-noise envelope. α=0.05 critical |t|=1.96; α=0.01 |t|=2.58.

§9 · Microstructure

24h volume (USD)
$118.89k
Open interest (USD)
$670.27k
Vol / OI (turnover)
0.18x
1h funding
-0.002187%
Funding (annualised)
-19.16%/yr

§10 · Position sizing

Continuous Kelly (μ/σ²)
-10.000× leverage · optimal log-utility leverage
Half-Kelly
-5.000× · industry-standard conservative
Quarter-Kelly
-2.500×

§11 · Hourly return heatmap

24-hour signed Δln-r grid · green = up · red = down
HOURLY RETURN HEATMAP · n=24 bars · best 0.45% · worst -0.70% · typical |Δ| 0.30%MILD BEARISH -3.02%BEST+0.45%19hWORST-0.70%04hTYPICAL |Δ|0.30%mean absoluteCUMULATIVE-3.02%Σ signed ΔSTREAK↘ 1down-runASIA · 00-08 UTCμ -0.22% · Σ -1.77%EUROPE · 08-16 UTCμ -0.07% · Σ -0.54%US · 16-24 UTCμ -0.09% · Σ -0.71%CUMULATIVE Δ PATH · final -3.02%+0.20%-3.02%0.20% · 15h0.20% · 15h0.20%15h-0.41% · 16h-0.41% · 16h-0.41%16h0.15% · 17h0.15% · 17h0.15%17h-0.52% · 18h-0.52% · 18h-0.52%18h0.45% · 19h0.45% · 19h0.45%19h★ BEST-0.40% · 20h-0.40% · 20h-0.40%20h0.31% · 21h0.31% · 21h0.31%21h-0.24% · 22h-0.24% · 22h-0.24%22h-0.04% · 23h-0.04% · 23h-0.04%23h-0.63% · 00h-0.63% · 00h-0.63%00h0.29% · 01h0.29% · 01h0.29%01h-0.21% · 02h-0.21% · 02h-0.21%02h0.01% · 03h0.01% · 03h0.01%03h-0.70% · 04h-0.70% · 04h-0.70%04h▼ WORST0.05% · 05h0.05% · 05h0.05%05h-0.40% · 06h-0.40% · 06h-0.40%06h-0.17% · 07h-0.17% · 07h-0.17%07h0.32% · 08h0.32% · 08h0.32%08h-0.09% · 09h-0.09% · 09h-0.09%09h-0.57% · 10h-0.57% · 10h-0.57%10h0.15% · 11h0.15% · 11h0.15%11h-0.36% · 12h-0.36% · 12h-0.36%12h0.13% · 13h0.13% · 13h0.13%13h-0.33% · 14h-0.33% · 14h-0.33%14hTIME PATTERNEurope-led (+-0.54%)RUNSup max 1 · down max 3BREADTH42% up · 58% down
10 up bars · 14 down · best 0.45% · worst -0.70% · typical |Δ| 0.297%

§12 · Equity curve & underwater drawdown

Cumulative compounded return + running peak-to-trough
EQUITY & DRAWDOWN ANALYSIS · n=25 barsLOSS WITH MODERATE DD (-2.99%)FINAL-2.99%MAX DD-3.18%RECOVERYONGOING · 23 barsMAX RUN-UP+0.20%UNDERWATER23/25 (92%)STREAK↘ 1EQUITY CURVE · end 0.9701 · peak 1.0020 · range [0.9701, 1.0020]1.00200.9701break-even = 1★ PEAK 1.0020UNDERWATER DRAWDOWN · max -3.18% · moderate0%-3.18%▼ TROUGH -3.18%TOP DRAWDOWN PERIODS · 1 total#1 -3.18%bar 3-25 · 23 bars · ONGOINGDD SEVERITYmoderate (max -3.18%)RECOVERYongoing · 23 barsTIME UNDER WATER92% of session · 23/25 bars
final equity 0.9701 (-2.99%) · max DD -3.18% · time-under-water 23/25 bars

§13 · Rolling-window statistics (w = 6 bars)

Rolling annualised Sharpe ratio · green positive · red negative
n=19 · +0 / −19 (0% positive) · μ=-35.41 · σ=17.22UNPROFITABLE STRATEGYLAST -57.45 (-1.28σ vs μ)80.1040.050.00-40.05-80.10μ = -35.41-20.37-20.37-15.79-15.79-10.09-10.09-17.96-17.96-21.03-21.03-29.87-29.87-23.49-23.49-42.44-42.44-52.35-52.35-47.41-47.41-42.75-42.75-80.10-80.10-38.43-38.43-43.14-43.14-41.77-41.77-35.26-35.26-34.12-34.12-18.92-18.92-57.45-57.45v > 0 · positivev < 0 · negativeμ mean lineμ ± σ bandlatest bar (outlined)
latest -57.447 · range [-80.10, -10.09] · μ -35.407 · positive Sharpe = excess-return-per-risk earned by buying-and-holding through this window
Rolling annualised volatility (%)
n=19 · μ=33.4271 · σ=3.8828 · range [26.0075, 39.2207] · R²=0.549▼ FALLING -28.15%σ HIGH 11.62%LAST 27.070039.220735.917432.614129.310826.0075μ = 33.4271max 39.2207min 26.0075dataMA(3)OLS R²=0.55μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
latest 27.07% · range [26.01%, 39.22%] · μ 33.43% · σ̂ scaled to annualised (×√8760)
Rolling lag-1 autocorrelation ρ(1)
n=19 · +0 / −19 (0% positive) · μ=-0.545 · σ=0.227MEAN-REVERSIONLAST -0.781 (-1.04σ vs μ)0.8740.4370.000-0.437-0.874μ = -0.545-0.821-0.821-0.789-0.789-0.874-0.874-0.793-0.793-0.443-0.443-0.606-0.606-0.544-0.544-0.658-0.658-0.522-0.522-0.574-0.574-0.458-0.458-0.767-0.767-0.381-0.381-0.203-0.203-0.106-0.106-0.234-0.234-0.393-0.393-0.398-0.398-0.781-0.781v > 0 · positivev < 0 · negativeμ mean lineμ ± σ bandlatest bar (outlined)
latest -0.781 · |ρ| > 0.3 ⇒ regime with persistence (ρ > 0) or reversal (ρ < 0) · |ρ| ≤ 0.1 = consistent with random walk

§14 · Hypothesis tests (α = 0.05)

Formal inference at 5% significance
3 of 6 REJECT · mixed evidence3 reject·3 pass·α = 0.05
𝒩

Jarque-Bera

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Δln-r ~ Normal(μ, σ²)

STATISTIC
1.3117
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.5190
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainednormality not rejected
ρ

Ljung-Box(h=5)

REJECT H₀***

H₀: No serial autocorrelation up to lag 5

STATISTIC
33.3802
p-VALUE (log scale)
< 0.0001
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p < α · rejection zoneserial dependence detected
Ψ

Dickey-Fuller (τ_μ)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: p has a unit root (non-stationary)

STATISTIC
-0.3652
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.9101
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedrandom-walk behaviour (crit ≈ -2.86)
±

Wald-Wolfowitz runs

REJECT H₀**

H₀: Sign sequence of Δ is random

STATISTIC
3.1527
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.0016
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p < α · rejection zonenon-random sign pattern (20 runs)
χ

KPSS (μ stationarity)

REJECT H₀**

H₀: p IS level-stationary

STATISTIC
0.9151
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.0038
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p < α · rejection zonenon-stationary (crit 0.463)
χ

Variance ratio q=3

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Δln-r is a random walk · VR = 1

STATISTIC
-1.8542
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.0637
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedVR 0.436 ≈ 1 (RW behaviour)
Each row states an explicit null H₀, the test statistic, an approximated p-value, and the decision. REJECT means evidence against H₀. KPSS complements ADF (rejecting both ⇒ ambiguous; rejecting one ⇒ clean verdict).

§15 · Spectral analysis (DFT periodogram)

Power spectrum of Δln-r · ‖X̂(k)‖²/n
n=12 bins · noise floor μ=1.66e-5 · top T=2.00h (72.0%) · top-3 cover 83.8%STRONG CYCLE @ T≈2.0cumulative energy ↗ (1 bin above 2× noise)1.4e-41.1e-47.2e-53.6e-50.0e+0μ noise floor2× noise (significance)period 24.0 · power 1.74e-6 · 0.9% energyperiod 24.0 · power 1.74e-6 · 0.9% energyperiod 12.0 · power 1.37e-6 · 0.7% energyperiod 12.0 · power 1.37e-6 · 0.7% energyperiod 8.0 · power 1.83e-7 · 0.1% energyperiod 8.0 · power 1.83e-7 · 0.1% energyperiod 6.0 · power 1.04e-5 · 5.2% energyperiod 6.0 · power 1.04e-5 · 5.2% energyperiod 4.8 · power 2.80e-6 · 1.4% energyperiod 4.8 · power 2.80e-6 · 1.4% energyperiod 4.0 · power 2.73e-7 · 0.1% energyperiod 4.0 · power 2.73e-7 · 0.1% energyperiod 3.4 · power 1.31e-5 · 6.6% energyperiod 3.4 · power 1.31e-5 · 6.6% energyperiod 3.0 · power 4.71e-6 · 2.4% energyperiod 3.0 · power 4.71e-6 · 2.4% energyperiod 2.7 · power 8.56e-6 · 4.3% energyperiod 2.7 · power 8.56e-6 · 4.3% energyperiod 2.4 · power 2.66e-6 · 1.3% energyperiod 2.4 · power 2.66e-6 · 1.3% energyperiod 2.2 · power 9.90e-6 · 5.0% energyperiod 2.2 · power 9.90e-6 · 5.0% energyperiod 2.0 · power 1.43e-4 · 72.0% energyperiod 2.0 · power 1.43e-4 · 72.0% energy50% by T=2.0h#1 dominantT=2.00h#2T=3.43h#3T=6.00hT=2hT=3hT=4hT=6hT=8hT=12hT=16hT=24h← shorter cycle (high freq · Nyquist=½) · period T (bars per cycle) · longer cycle (low freq · 1/n) →#1 dominant#2 peak#3 peak> 2× noisenoiseμ floor2μ sig.cum energy
dominant period ≈ 2.00h (freq 0.500) · concentrates 72.0% of total energy · Σ|X̂|²/n = 1.992e-4

▸ Depth section using sovereign-store price series (5000 bars · effective 5257847 bars/year) — annualisation reflects native polling cadence, not upstream timeframes.

§16 · NOSTRADAMUS continuous quant — perp leverage & bootstrap MC

Continuous-price extension of the prediction-market quant module. Kelly growth on observed returns (Merton μ/σ² parametric vs argmax empirical), Monte-Carlo equity fan bootstrapped from the historical return distribution at quarter-Kelly leverage, and an annualized return decomposition. Sweep parameters in the simulator.

§17 · Continuous Kelly

Continuous-Kelly growth · g(f) = E[ln(1 + f·r)]
NO LONG EDGE · μ -0.000% per barparametric μ/σ² short edge (μ<0) · μ -0.000% · σ 0.02%
μ per barmean
-0.000%
σ per barvol
0.02%
Empirical f★argmax g(f)
0.00×
from observed distribution
Parametric f★μ/σ²
-68.71×
Merton continuous-time
Half-Kelly½ f★
0.00×
~⅔ of full growth, half the variance
Quarter-Kelly¼ f★
0.00×
industry default — survives model error
-0.00%0.02%0.05%0.07%0.10%0.0×1.6×3.2×4.8×6.4×8.0×leverage fraction fexpected log-growth per bar
g(f) empiricalf★ argmaxparametric f★
Maximum expected log-growth from leveraging the historical return distribution. Empirical f★ argmaxes the sample expectation; parametric f★ = μ/σ² is Merton's continuous-time optimum.

§18 · MC equity fan

Bootstrapped equity fan at 0.10× leverage
Median CAGR/bar -0.000% · annualized Sharpe -32.68400 paths × 720 bars · leverage 0.10× · bootstrap from 4999 observed returns
Sharpe / barμ/σ
-0.014
annualized -32.68
μ per barafter L
-0.000%
σ per barafter L
0.00%
VaR 95%5%
0.00%
per-bar worst-case
CVaR 95%ES
0.01%
mean tail loss
Max DD (median)MDD
-0.0%
0.95×0.97×0.99×1.01×1.03×1.05×0120240360480600720startbar #equity multiple
median25/75 band5/95 band
Median path with 25/75 and 5/95 percentile bands across 400 simulated careers. Bars resample with replacement from the observed return distribution — preserves fat tails the parametric model misses.

§19 · Annualized breakdown

Annualized return components
APR -1000% · APY -100% · Sharpe -34.34σ ann 50% · Sortino -21.52 · n 4999 · ⚠ capped (n=4999 too small to support 8760-bar projection)
-4120%-3284%-2448%-1612%-776%60%-1000.0%APR (simple)-100.0%APY (compound)50.0%Ann. vol σ-3433.5%Sharpe (ann)-2152.2%Sortino (ann)
Simple APR vs compounded APY · annualized volatility · risk-adjusted Sharpe and Sortino. All scaled by √(periods/yr).

§20 · GARCH(1,1) volatility band

GARCH(1,1) · conditional vol envelope (±2σ)
GARCH persistence α+β = 0.980· σ̂ₜ = 1.000% · long-run σ = 2.236%
0.0290.0290.0300.0310.0310.032t-4999t-4166t-3333t-2500t-1666t-833t-0

Persistence near 1 ⇒ vol clusters strongly (slow mean reversion). Long-run σ is the unconditional target the conditional vol orbits. The ±2σ band reflects time-varying scale, unlike a flat-vol band.

Time-varying volatility band fitted to the price series. Persistence α+β > 0.98 means vol shocks decay slowly — recent moves stay relevant.

§∞ · Provenance & attestation

Upstream
api.hyperliquid.xyz
Snapshot fetched
2026-06-14 14:29:18 UTC
Snapshot age
274ms
History points
25 hourly closes
Page rendered
2026-06-14 14:29:19 UTC
Storage policy
no persistence — fetched on every request
SHA-256 attestation
dec571f08f5b167283ae04a7386c2de6493dcbc50c372a2c1bce9d1689f284ab · deterministic hash of the source snapshot — proves this page was rendered from this exact data
Open data licence
CC0 / public domain · free to mirror, syndicate, analyse

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Also see: /arb opportunities · RSS feed

Market depth

▸ live order book · Hyperliquid perp
Depth within 1bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Depth within 5bp
$1.48K
bid $832 · ask $647
Depth within 10bp
$16.33K
bid $11.42K · ask $4.91K
Depth within 50bp
$63.48K
bid $32.99K · ask $30.50K
Mid price
0.029962
(best bid + best ask) / 2
Spread
4.3bp
(bestAsk − bestBid) / mid
Imbalance (whole book)
+0.041
bid-heavy
Imbalance (top-5)
+0.062
bid-heavy top-of-book

Slippage scenarios

▸ live book walk · Hyperliquid perp

Simulating a market order at three notionals against the live book. Slippage = avg execution price vs. mid, in basis points. Worst fill = price of the deepest level touched. Live JSON: /api/asset/hl-S/slippage?size=10000&side=buy

SideNotionalAvg fillSlippageWorst fillLevelsStatus
BUY$1.00K0.0299723.24bp0.0299793FILLED
BUY$10.00K0.02999310.27bp0.03001112FILLED
BUY$100.00K0.03002320.25bp0.03006420PARTIAL
SELL$1.00K0.0299542.92bp0.0299464FILLED
SELL$10.00K0.0299397.78bp0.02993310FILLED
SELL$100.00K0.02991316.55bp0.02987020PARTIAL

Funding carry

▸ SHORTS PAY · longs receive
Hourly funding
-2.187e-5
-0.00219% / hr
Annualised APR
-19.174%
hourly · 24 · 365.25
Long: days to 1% carry
19.0d
longs receive
Short: days to 1% carry
19.0d
shorts pay
SideDirectionAnnualised carryDays → 1%Days → 10%
LONGRECEIVE19.174%19.0d190.5d
SHORTPAY-19.174%19.0d190.5d

/api/asset/hl-S/carry · same metrics, JSON

Volume profile

▸ real volume · Hyperliquid candlesstep $ 1 · 25 records
Price binBarsVolumeDistribution
$0.000000–$1.0000★25$3.95M

★ POC = Point of Control (highest-volume bin). Live JSON: /api/asset/hl-S/volprofile?priceStep=1

Order flow

▸ ASK-LEAN · -0.358 · Hyperliquid candles
Bars (buy / sell)
10 / 14
1 unclassified
Buy weight
$1.24M
real volume
Sell weight
$2.61M
real volume
Net delta
$1.38M
sellers net
Imbalance
-35.82%
(buy − sell) / (buy + sell)
Toxicity (VPIN)
35.8%
two-sided / balanced
Impact (|Δp|/vol)
—
needs real volume

Sparkline = cumulative delta over the 25-record window./api/asset/hl-S/flow?rollingWindow=30

Cascade clusters

▸ DOWN · 6 found · deepest 1.42% · Hyperliquid candles

Price-only proxy for forced-unwind clusters. No exchange liquidation feed is wired — read each row as a candidate event, not a confirmed liquidation.

#WindowDurationPeak → TroughDrawdownBars
#12026-06-14 04:00:00Z3.0h0.030634→0.0302001.417%4
#22026-06-14 00:00:00Z0ms0.030827→0.0305460.912%1
#32026-06-14 10:00:00Z2.0h0.030298→0.0300370.861%3

/api/asset/hl-S/cascades?windowMs=10800000&minDrawdownPct=0.005 · full list + parameters in JSON

Risk metrics

▸ sovereign store · 5,000 barsperiods/year ≈ 5.26M
Realized vol (annualised)
49.97%
σ per bar = 0.000218
Mean return (annualised)
-1715.68%
μ per bar = -0.000003
Sharpe (rf=0)
-34.34
annualised; risk-free assumed zero
Max drawdown
2.35%
peak 0.03 → trough 0.03 over 4442 bars

/api/asset/hl-S/risk · same metrics, JSON