HYPERLIQUID · PERPETUAL FUTURES

RUNE

RUNE-USD perpetual · 24/7 trading on Hyperliquid

▸ Advanced metrics · M2M bundle

hyperliquid · perp-rune · fresh · feed 3s old
24h sparkline · 60 pts▼ -4.61%
realized vol (ann.)
51.02%
max drawdown
1.57%
sharpe
-54.08
ulcer index
0.81%
RMS drawdown
pain index
0.67%
mean drawdown
mod. VaR 95%
0.03%
Cornish-Fisher
martin ratio
-3399.98
ret / ulcer
CDaR 95%
1.45%
cond. drawdown
gain/pain
0.91
Σgain / Σ|loss|
sterling
-1906.90
ret / CDaR
omega (θ=0)
0.91
upside/downside
roll spread
0.0 bps
implied (price-only)
bars used
2000
store
spread
—
24h Δ
-4.61%
flow lean
—
carry
longs_pay
10.95%
signalSHORTconfidence 40%suggested side: SELL
  • 24h change -4.61%
  • funding: longs pay — perp shorts get paid to wait
  • mark cheap vs HL oracle by 10.4bps — long bias
Same bundle via M2M API: /api/m2m/hl-RUNE/bundle · venue execution: hyperliquid →
LIVEPOLL0SRCFRESH3.5s⏱--:--:-- UTC8NEXT8.0sUP0s--:--HIST0/30
▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC FRESH·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC FRESH·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·
MARK · live
$0.374
24h Δ · live
-4.61%
24h vol · live
$0.4M
RUNE · live 24h price
n=25 · μ=0.3823 · σ=0.0071 · range [0.3733, 0.3947] · R²=0.817▼ FALLING -4.69%σ NORMAL 1.87%LAST 0.37330.39470.38930.38400.37860.3733μ = 0.3823max 0.3947min 0.3733dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.82μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxminlive endpoint
25 closes · last $0.37
Funding direction · live
Long fee 48.1%Short fee 51.9%SHORT FEE51.9%
Σ = 0.0%
Σ-sides total = 0.00% (100.00pp arb gap)
H(p) entropy = 0.999 / 1.00 bits (100%) · max uncertainty (~50/50)
Long fee
48.1%▬ +0.00pp
Short fee
51.9%▬ +0.00pp
1h funding 0.001250% · longs pay
Hourly contract volume · live
n=25 · Σ=962,000 · μ=38480.0 · σ=88535.9 · CV=2.30BURSTY · concentratedcumulative energy ↗ · 50% by h=120113,235226,471339,706452,941μ = 38480452,941.350%h1h5h9h13h17h21h25#1 peak#2-3> μactivequietμ linecum energy
peak 452941 contracts
Live numerics · pulse on poll
LIVE NUMERICS9 metrics·POLL 0
⏱snapshot age
3.5s
$mark $
$0.3735
$mid $
$0.3735
◉prev-day close
$0.3916
Δ24h Δ %
-4.615%
$24h vol $
$360.82k
◐open interest $
$1.21M
%funding (1h)
0.001250%
%funding (yr)
+10.95%/yr

§1 · 24h time-series

Close price · hourly
n=25 · μ=0.3823 · σ=0.0071 · range [0.3733, 0.3947] · R²=0.817▼ FALLING -4.69%σ NORMAL 1.87%LAST 0.37330.39470.38930.38400.37860.3733μ = 0.3823max 0.3947min 0.3733dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.82μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
mark $0.3735 · 24h -4.61% · range $[0.3733, 0.3947]
OHLC candles · hourly
n=25 · up 8 · down 17 (32% up) · range [0.3718, 0.3948] · σ=0.0071 · CV=0.02 · bodyµ=51%STRONG BEARISH -4.74%CLOSE 0.3733 vs OPEN 0.3919 (-4.74%)&#9660; CLOSE 0.37330.39480.38910.38330.37760.3718μ close = 0.3823O0.392 H0.393 L0.391 C0.392 (-0.06%)O0.392 H0.393 L0.391 C0.392 (-0.06%)O0.391 H0.395 L0.391 C0.395 (+0.84%)O0.391 H0.395 L0.391 C0.395 (+0.84%)O0.394 H0.395 L0.389 C0.392 (-0.58%)O0.394 H0.395 L0.389 C0.392 (-0.58%)O0.392 H0.393 L0.389 C0.389 (-0.85%)O0.392 H0.393 L0.389 C0.389 (-0.85%)O0.389 H0.392 L0.388 C0.389 (+0.05%)O0.389 H0.392 L0.388 C0.389 (+0.05%)O0.389 H0.393 L0.388 C0.392 (+0.69%)O0.389 H0.393 L0.388 C0.392 (+0.69%)O0.391 H0.392 L0.389 C0.390 (-0.40%)O0.391 H0.392 L0.389 C0.390 (-0.40%)O0.390 H0.393 L0.387 C0.390 (-0.05%)O0.390 H0.393 L0.387 C0.390 (-0.05%)O0.390 H0.391 L0.388 C0.388 (-0.48%)O0.390 H0.391 L0.388 C0.388 (-0.48%)O0.388 H0.389 L0.387 C0.387 (-0.21%)O0.388 H0.389 L0.387 C0.387 (-0.21%)O0.387 H0.388 L0.381 C0.382 (-1.42%)O0.387 H0.388 L0.381 C0.382 (-1.42%)O0.381 H0.385 L0.378 C0.382 (+0.21%)O0.381 H0.385 L0.378 C0.382 (+0.21%)O0.382 H0.382 L0.378 C0.378 (-1.06%)O0.382 H0.382 L0.378 C0.378 (-1.06%)O0.378 H0.378 L0.375 C0.376 (-0.55%)O0.378 H0.378 L0.375 C0.376 (-0.55%)O0.376 H0.376 L0.373 C0.374 (-0.44%)O0.376 H0.376 L0.373 C0.374 (-0.44%)O0.374 H0.376 L0.373 C0.375 (+0.30%)O0.374 H0.376 L0.373 C0.375 (+0.30%)O0.375 H0.377 L0.375 C0.376 (+0.22%)O0.375 H0.377 L0.375 C0.376 (+0.22%)O0.377 H0.380 L0.377 C0.380 (+0.76%)O0.377 H0.380 L0.377 C0.380 (+0.76%)O0.380 H0.381 L0.377 C0.377 (-0.77%)O0.380 H0.381 L0.377 C0.377 (-0.77%)O0.377 H0.383 L0.376 C0.383 (+1.46%)O0.377 H0.383 L0.376 C0.383 (+1.46%)-1.6%O0.382 H0.383 L0.376 C0.376 (-1.59%)O0.382 H0.383 L0.376 C0.376 (-1.59%)O0.376 H0.378 L0.376 C0.376 (-0.09%)O0.376 H0.378 L0.376 C0.376 (-0.09%)O0.376 H0.377 L0.374 C0.374 (-0.56%)O0.376 H0.377 L0.374 C0.374 (-0.56%)O0.374 H0.374 L0.372 C0.373 (-0.22%)O0.374 H0.374 L0.372 C0.373 (-0.22%)O0.373 H0.374 L0.373 C0.373 (-0.05%)O0.373 H0.374 L0.373 C0.373 (-0.05%)#1#5#9#13#17#21#25up bar (C≥O)down bar (C<O)MA(5) closeμ closedoji (~no body)biggest body
25 bars
Hourly volume (base units)
n=25 · Σ=962,000 · μ=38480.0 · σ=88535.9 · CV=2.30BURSTY · concentratedcumulative energy &nearr; · 50% by h=120113,235226,471339,706452,941μ = 3848022,076.2 · 4.9% peak22,076.2 · 4.9% peak14,503.3 · 3.2% peak14,503.3 · 3.2% peak33,962.3 · 7.5% peak33,962.3 · 7.5% peak11,907.7 · 2.6% peak11,907.7 · 2.6% peak6,152.6 · 1.4% peak6,152.6 · 1.4% peak9,368 · 2.1% peak9,368 · 2.1% peak9,551.9 · 2.1% peak9,551.9 · 2.1% peak15,445.7 · 3.4% peak15,445.7 · 3.4% peak6,240.2 · 1.4% peak6,240.2 · 1.4% peak9,651.1 · 2.1% peak9,651.1 · 2.1% peak93,295.5 · 20.6% peak93,295.5 · 20.6% peak452,941.3452,941.3 · 100.0% peak452,941.3 · 100.0% peak15,273.1 · 3.4% peak15,273.1 · 3.4% peak60,199.8 · 13.3% peak60,199.8 · 13.3% peak17,700.1 · 3.9% peak17,700.1 · 3.9% peak5,698.8 · 1.3% peak5,698.8 · 1.3% peak13,452.2 · 3.0% peak13,452.2 · 3.0% peak23,132.1 · 5.1% peak23,132.1 · 5.1% peak20,323.7 · 4.5% peak20,323.7 · 4.5% peak19,274.6 · 4.3% peak19,274.6 · 4.3% peak13,953.7 · 3.1% peak13,953.7 · 3.1% peak41,532.1 · 9.2% peak41,532.1 · 9.2% peak13,657.2 · 3.0% peak13,657.2 · 3.0% peak29,753.5 · 6.6% peak29,753.5 · 6.6% peak2,953.1 · 0.7% peak2,953.1 · 0.7% peak50%#1#5#9#13#17#21#25#1 peak#2-3> μactivequietμ linecum energy
Σ vol 962000 · peak 452941 · CV 2.30

§2 · Returns distribution (log-returns)

Histogram of rₜ = ln(pₜ/pₜ₋₁)
n=24 · 12 bins · μ=-0.0021 · σ=0.0068 · skew=0.24 (symmetric) · kurt=-0.26 (mesokurtic)54310 1-154.69bpbin -154.69bp · n=1 · 20.0% peakbin -154.69bp · n=1 · 20.0% peak 1-128.33bpbin -128.33bp · n=1 · 20.0% peakbin -128.33bp · n=1 · 20.0% peak 1-101.97bpbin -101.97bp · n=1 · 20.0% peakbin -101.97bp · n=1 · 20.0% peak 4-75.60bpbin -75.60bp · n=4 · 80.0% peakbin -75.60bp · n=4 · 80.0% peak 4-49.24bpbin -49.24bp · n=4 · 80.0% peakbin -49.24bp · n=4 · 80.0% peak 2-22.87bpbin -22.87bp · n=2 · 40.0% peakbin -22.87bp · n=2 · 40.0% peak 53.49bpbin 3.49bp · n=5 · 100.0% peakbin 3.49bp · n=5 · 100.0% peak 229.86bpbin 29.86bp · n=2 · 40.0% peakbin 29.86bp · n=2 · 40.0% peak 156.22bpbin 56.22bp · n=1 · 20.0% peakbin 56.22bp · n=1 · 20.0% peak 282.58bpbin 82.58bp · n=2 · 40.0% peakbin 82.58bp · n=2 · 40.0% peak108.95bp 1135.31bpbin 135.31bp · n=1 · 20.0% peakbin 135.31bp · n=1 · 20.0% peakμΔ < 0 · loss barsΔ ≈ 0 · flatΔ > 0 · gain barsN(μ,σ²) referenceμ line · ±σ band shaded
n=24 · positive 9 · negative 15
Q-Q plot · standardised rₜ vs N(0,1)
n=24 · skew=0.21 · kurt=-0.02 · near 23 / mid 1 / far 0 · OLS slope=1.02 intercept=-0.00MATCHES NORMAL · WELL-BEHAVEDMILDLY HEAVY UPPERLOWER TAIL NORMAL-3σ-3σ-2σ-2σ-1σ-1σ+0σ+0σ+1σ+1σ+2σ+2σ+3σ+3σsample ↓marginal: sample bars + theoretical N(0,1) curve →theoretical Φ⁻¹(p) →↑ sample z-quantile|Δ| < 0.3σ · on the line|Δ| < 1σ · moderate|Δ| ≥ 1σ · outliery = x refOLS fit

§3 · Spot quote

Mark price
$0.3735
Mid price
$0.3735
24h change
-4.61%
Mark–mid spread
0.00 bps
Prev-day close
$0.3916

§4 · Sample moments (prices)

Descriptive statistics · 5-number summary · shape diagnostics
SAMPLE MOMENTS · N=25PLATYKURTIC · THIN TAILS (G₂=-1.62)
μ MEAN0.3823$95% CI: [0.3795$, 0.3851$]
σ STD DEV0.0071$σ² = 0.511×10⁻⁴ · CV = 1.87%
med MEDIAN0.3818$Q₁ 0.3759$ · Q₃ 0.3889$
FIVE-NUMBER SUMMARY · BOX PLOTrange 0.0214$ · IQR 0.0130$ (1.349σ→0.0096$)
min 0.3733$Q₁ 0.3759$med 0.3818$Q₃ 0.3889$max 0.3947$μ
SKEWNESS · G₁0.210approximately symmetric
−3−10+1+3
EXCESS KURTOSIS · G₂-1.620platykurtic · thin tails
−30+2+4+6
μ ↔ median≈ equal · symmetric|μ−med| / σ = 0.07
σ × 1.349 ↔ IQRdiverges from normalratio = 0.74
range ↔ σconcentrated (range < 4σ)range / σ = 2.99
μ = mean · σ = standard deviation · CV = coefficient of variation. Skew (G₁): >0 right-skewed. Kurt (G₂, excess): >0 leptokurtic. 95% CI = μ ± 1.96·SE.

§5 · Returns analytics (log-returns)

Risk-adjusted performance · log-returns
RETURNS · RISK-ADJUSTEDUNPROFITABLE · SR=-25.52
μᵣ MEAN / h-0.199942%drift is negative per h · |μ|/σ = 0.273
σᵣ STD / h0.733190%σ²ᵣ = 0.538×10⁻⁴ · CV = 3.67×
σ ANNUALISED68.62%/yrscaled by √8760 (hourly→yearly) · 0.733%/h base
RISK-ADJUSTED PERFORMANCEhigher = better edge per unit risk
SHARPE (annualised)-25.52negative edge
-2-10+1+2+3+4
SORTINO (annualised)-24.13downside drag
-2-10+1+2+3+4
CALMAR (return / max-DD)-100.00drawdown overwhelms returns
-20+2+4+6
RETURN-DISTRIBUTION SHAPE|skew| < 0.5 ≈ symmetric · |kurt| < 1 ≈ mesokurtic
SKEWNESS · G₁0.22approximately symmetric
-3-10+1+3
EXCESS KURTOSIS · G₂0.28mesokurtic · normal-like tails
-30+2+4+6
SORTINO vs SHARPEdownside vol < total vol · favourableSoR / SR = 0.95
CALMAR · DD CONTROLdrawdown > returns · adverseCR = -100.00
EXPECTED EDGE-1751.50%/yr driftμ × 8760 = annualised expectation
rₜ = ln(pₜ/pₜ₋₁). σ × √8760 = annualised. Sharpe = μ/σ scaled; Sortino uses downside-only vol; Calmar = annual return / max drawdown.

§6 · Risk metrics

Tail risk + drawdown · downside diagnostics
TAIL & DRAWDOWN RISKHIGH · 95% VaR 1.35%
VaR₉₅ (h)1.350%5% prob of larger adverse h move
VaR₉₉ (h)1.617%1% prob · extreme-tail threshold
ES₉₅ (CVaR)1.545%expected loss given 5% tail event
MAX DRAWDOWN5.41%23h from peak to trough
TAIL-RISK LADDER (h losses)larger negative = worse · markers show severity
0 · no lossVaR₉₅−1.350%VaR₉₉−1.617%ES₉₅−1.545%worst tail ←→ zero loss
MAX DRAWDOWN PROFILEsignificant drawdown · 23h duration
PEAK39.47$
−5.41% drawdown over 23h
37.33$TROUGH
ES / VaR · TAIL THICKNESSmild tail heaviness|ES₉₅| / |VaR₉₅| = 1.15× (normal ≈ 1.25)
VaR₉₉ / VaR₉₅ · CONCENTRATIONuniform tailratio = 1.20× (normal ≈ 1.41)
DRAWDOWN · CAPITAL DURATIONsignificant drawdownrecovery needed: +5.72% (compounding)
VaR = quantile loss · ES (CVaR) = expected loss conditional on tail · DD = peak-to-trough decline. Under normality ES₉₅/VaR₉₅ ≈ 1.25; ratio > 1.5 ⇒ fat-tail regime.

§7 · Technicals

RSI(14)
33.3 · neutral
Bollinger %B
0.222 · within band
Bollinger upper
$0.3924
Bollinger MA
$0.3801
Bollinger lower
$0.3678

§8 · Time-series structure

Regime & autocorrelation diagnostics
TIME-SERIES STRUCTUREREGIME: MEAN-REVERTING · ρ(1) -0.32 + ADF rejected
ρ(1) AUTOCORR-0.322within white-noise band
ρ(2) AUTOCORR+0.277lag-2 not significant
H · HURST EXPONENT0.944strongly persistent
OLS TREND · t-STAT-10.127significant @ α=0.05
HURST EXPONENT [0, 1]strongly persistent · H = 0.944
H = 0.944STRONGLY PERSISTENT
0
anti-persistent0.45
mean-reverting0.5
random walk0.55
persistent1
strongly trending
AUTOCORRELATION FUNCTION · ρ(k) for k=1..5WHITE NOISE · no significant lags
k=1-0.322k=2+0.277k=3-0.208k=4+0.098k=5-0.3060+1−1+0.41−0.41+ momentum (ρ > +0.41)− reversal (ρ < −0.41)noise (within band)±2/√n threshold
OLS TREND · t-STAT · [-5, +5]SIGNIFICANT @ 1% (|t|=10.13)
−5 reject−1.960 retain H₀+1.96+5 reject
REGIME CLASSIFICATIONMEAN-REVERTING · ρ(1) -0.32 + ADF rejectedfrom Hurst + ρ(1) joint diagnosis
PREDICTABILITY · score 1.00very high · strong structure|ρ(1)| + 2·|H − 0.5| heuristic
TREND SIGNIFICANCESIGNIFICANT @ 1% (|t|=10.13)α=0.05 critical |t|=1.96 · α=0.01 |t|=2.58
ρ(k) = lag-k sample autocorrelation · H = R/S Hurst exponent · t = OLS-trend t-statistic. Significance bands at ±2/√n approximate the 95% white-noise envelope. α=0.05 critical |t|=1.96; α=0.01 |t|=2.58.

§9 · Microstructure

24h volume (USD)
$360.82k
Open interest (USD)
$1.21M
Vol / OI (turnover)
0.30x
1h funding
0.001250%
Funding (annualised)
+10.95%/yr

§10 · Position sizing

Continuous Kelly (μ/σ²)
-10.000× leverage · optimal log-utility leverage
Half-Kelly
-5.000× · industry-standard conservative
Quarter-Kelly
-2.500×

§11 · Hourly return heatmap

24-hour signed Δln-r grid · green = up · red = down
HOURLY RETURN HEATMAP · n=24 bars · best 1.48% · worst -1.68% · typical |Δ| 0.59%BEARISH SESSION -4.80%BEST+1.48%09hWORST-1.68%10hTYPICAL |Δ|0.59%mean absoluteCUMULATIVE-4.80%Σ signed ΔSTREAK↘ 5down-runASIA · 00-08 UTCμ -0.24% · Σ -1.95%EUROPE · 08-16 UTCμ -0.12% · Σ -0.94%US · 16-24 UTCμ -0.24% · Σ -1.91%CUMULATIVE Δ PATH · final -4.80%+0.77%-4.80%0.77% · 15h0.77% · 15h0.77%15h-0.71% · 16h-0.71% · 16h-0.71%16h-0.86% · 17h-0.86% · 17h-0.86%17h0.09% · 18h0.09% · 18h0.09%18h0.68% · 19h0.68% · 19h0.68%19h-0.49% · 20h-0.49% · 20h-0.49%20h0.09% · 21h0.09% · 21h0.09%21h-0.48% · 22h-0.48% · 22h-0.48%22h-0.24% · 23h-0.24% · 23h-0.24%23h-1.41% · 00h-1.41% · 00h-1.41%00h0.06% · 01h0.06% · 01h0.06%01h-0.99% · 02h-0.99% · 02h-0.99%02h-0.69% · 03h-0.69% · 03h-0.69%03h-0.43% · 04h-0.43% · 04h-0.43%04h0.32% · 05h0.32% · 05h0.32%05h0.27% · 06h0.27% · 06h0.27%06h0.92% · 07h0.92% · 07h0.92%07h-0.72% · 08h-0.72% · 08h-0.72%08h1.48% · 09h1.48% · 09h1.48%09h★ BEST-1.68% · 10h-1.68% · 10h-1.68%10h▼ WORST-0.09% · 11h-0.09% · 11h-0.09%11h-0.49% · 12h-0.49% · 12h-0.49%12h-0.18% · 13h-0.18% · 13h-0.18%13h-0.03% · 14h-0.03% · 14h-0.03%14hTIME PATTERNEurope-led (+-0.94%)RUNSup max 3 · down max 5BREADTH38% up · 63% down
9 up bars · 15 down · best 1.48% · worst -1.68% · typical |Δ| 0.591%

§12 · Equity curve & underwater drawdown

Cumulative compounded return + running peak-to-trough
EQUITY & DRAWDOWN ANALYSIS · n=25 barsLOSS WITH MODERATE DD (-4.75%)FINAL-4.75%MAX DD-5.48%RECOVERYONGOING · 23 barsMAX RUN-UP+0.77%UNDERWATER23/25 (92%)STREAK↘ 5EQUITY CURVE · end 0.9525 · peak 1.0077 · range [0.9525, 1.0077]1.00770.9525break-even = 1★ PEAK 1.0077UNDERWATER DRAWDOWN · max -5.48% · significant0%-5.48%▼ TROUGH -5.48%TOP DRAWDOWN PERIODS · 1 total#1 -5.48%bar 3-25 · 23 bars · ONGOINGDD SEVERITYsignificant (max -5.48%)RECOVERYongoing · 23 barsTIME UNDER WATER92% of session · 23/25 bars
final equity 0.9525 (-4.75%) · max DD -5.48% · time-under-water 23/25 bars

§13 · Rolling-window statistics (w = 6 bars)

Rolling annualised Sharpe ratio · green positive · red negative
n=19 · +3 / −16 (16% positive) · μ=-33.12 · σ=39.08UNPROFITABLE STRATEGYLAST -15.17 (+0.46σ vs μ)110.4755.240.00-55.24-110.47μ = -33.12-11.25-11.25-31.58-31.58-27.09-27.09-12.01-12.01-41.29-41.29-69.81-69.81-77.04-77.04-110.47-110.47-108.20-108.20-75.41-75.41-41.89-41.89-13.04-13.04-7.81-7.8135.1435.148.138.132.522.52-7.76-7.76-25.22-25.22-15.17-15.17v > 0 · positivev < 0 · negativeμ mean lineμ ± σ bandlatest bar (outlined)
latest -15.175 · range [-110.47, 35.14] · μ -33.119 · positive Sharpe = excess-return-per-risk earned by buying-and-holding through this window
Rolling annualised volatility (%)
n=19 · μ=69.3288 · σ=22.0013 · range [41.6707, 107.3336] · R²=0.605▲ RISING +43.54%σ EXTREME 31.73%LAST 94.8931107.333690.917974.502158.086441.6707μ = 69.3288max 107.3336min 41.6707dataMA(3)OLS R²=0.60μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
latest 94.89% · range [41.67%, 107.33%] · μ 69.33% · σ̂ scaled to annualised (×√8760)
Rolling lag-1 autocorrelation ρ(1)
n=19 · +3 / −16 (16% positive) · μ=-0.348 · σ=0.338MEAN-REVERSIONLAST -0.513 (-0.49σ vs μ)0.7620.3810.000-0.381-0.762μ = -0.348-0.145-0.1450.0340.034-0.263-0.263-0.263-0.263-0.169-0.169-0.484-0.484-0.560-0.560-0.726-0.726-0.762-0.762-0.309-0.3090.2550.2550.4280.428-0.052-0.052-0.558-0.558-0.630-0.630-0.593-0.593-0.630-0.630-0.668-0.668-0.513-0.513v > 0 · positivev < 0 · negativeμ mean lineμ ± σ bandlatest bar (outlined)
latest -0.513 · |ρ| > 0.3 ⇒ regime with persistence (ρ > 0) or reversal (ρ < 0) · |ρ| ≤ 0.1 = consistent with random walk

§14 · Hypothesis tests (α = 0.05)

Formal inference at 5% significance
1 of 6 REJECT · mixed evidence1 reject·5 pass·α = 0.05
𝒩

Jarque-Bera

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Δln-r ~ Normal(μ, σ²)

STATISTIC
0.2700
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.8737
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainednormality not rejected
ρ

Ljung-Box(h=5)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: No serial autocorrelation up to lag 5

STATISTIC
9.6419
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.0851
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedconsistent with white noise
Ψ

Dickey-Fuller (τ_μ)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: p has a unit root (non-stationary)

STATISTIC
-0.9853
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.7573
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedrandom-walk behaviour (crit ≈ -2.86)
±

Wald-Wolfowitz runs

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Sign sequence of Δ is random

STATISTIC
-0.1117
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.9111
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedsigns appear random (12 runs)
χ

KPSS (μ stationarity)

REJECT H₀**

H₀: p IS level-stationary

STATISTIC
0.8179
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.0065
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p < α · rejection zonenon-stationary (crit 0.463)
χ

Variance ratio q=3

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Δln-r is a random walk · VR = 1

STATISTIC
-0.7006
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.4835
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedVR 0.787 ≈ 1 (RW behaviour)
Each row states an explicit null H₀, the test statistic, an approximated p-value, and the decision. REJECT means evidence against H₀. KPSS complements ADF (rejecting both ⇒ ambiguous; rejecting one ⇒ clean verdict).

§15 · Spectral analysis (DFT periodogram)

Power spectrum of Δln-r · ‖X̂(k)‖²/n
n=12 bins · noise floor μ=6.67e-5 · top T=2.00h (45.5%) · top-3 cover 64.0%STRONG CYCLE @ T≈2.0cumulative energy ↗ (1 bin above 2× noise)3.6e-42.7e-41.8e-49.1e-50.0e+0μ noise floor2× noise (significance)period 24.0 · power 2.05e-5 · 2.6% energyperiod 24.0 · power 2.05e-5 · 2.6% energyperiod 12.0 · power 7.48e-5 · 9.3% energyperiod 12.0 · power 7.48e-5 · 9.3% energyperiod 8.0 · power 4.01e-5 · 5.0% energyperiod 8.0 · power 4.01e-5 · 5.0% energyperiod 6.0 · power 3.60e-5 · 4.5% energyperiod 6.0 · power 3.60e-5 · 4.5% energyperiod 4.8 · power 1.81e-5 · 2.3% energyperiod 4.8 · power 1.81e-5 · 2.3% energyperiod 4.0 · power 9.09e-6 · 1.1% energyperiod 4.0 · power 9.09e-6 · 1.1% energyperiod 3.4 · power 7.38e-5 · 9.2% energyperiod 3.4 · power 7.38e-5 · 9.2% energyperiod 3.0 · power 3.26e-5 · 4.1% energyperiod 3.0 · power 3.26e-5 · 4.1% energyperiod 2.7 · power 4.44e-5 · 5.5% energyperiod 2.7 · power 4.44e-5 · 5.5% energyperiod 2.4 · power 5.91e-5 · 7.4% energyperiod 2.4 · power 5.91e-5 · 7.4% energyperiod 2.2 · power 2.78e-5 · 3.5% energyperiod 2.2 · power 2.78e-5 · 3.5% energyperiod 2.0 · power 3.64e-4 · 45.5% energyperiod 2.0 · power 3.64e-4 · 45.5% energy50% by T=2.4h#1 dominantT=2.00h#2T=12.00h#3T=3.43hT=2hT=3hT=4hT=6hT=8hT=12hT=16hT=24h← shorter cycle (high freq · Nyquist=½) · period T (bars per cycle) · longer cycle (low freq · 1/n) →#1 dominant#2 peak#3 peak> 2× noisenoiseμ floor2μ sig.cum energy
dominant period ≈ 2.00h (freq 0.500) · concentrates 45.5% of total energy · Σ|X̂|²/n = 8.001e-4

▸ Depth section using sovereign-store price series (5000 bars · effective 5257847 bars/year) — annualisation reflects native polling cadence, not upstream timeframes.

§16 · NOSTRADAMUS continuous quant — perp leverage & bootstrap MC

Continuous-price extension of the prediction-market quant module. Kelly growth on observed returns (Merton μ/σ² parametric vs argmax empirical), Monte-Carlo equity fan bootstrapped from the historical return distribution at quarter-Kelly leverage, and an annualized return decomposition. Sweep parameters in the simulator.

§17 · Continuous Kelly

Continuous-Kelly growth · g(f) = E[ln(1 + f·r)]
NO LONG EDGE · μ -0.000% per barparametric μ/σ² short edge (μ<0) · μ -0.000% · σ 0.02%
μ per barmean
-0.000%
σ per barvol
0.02%
Empirical f★argmax g(f)
0.00×
from observed distribution
Parametric f★μ/σ²
-25.57×
Merton continuous-time
Half-Kelly½ f★
0.00×
~⅔ of full growth, half the variance
Quarter-Kelly¼ f★
0.00×
industry default — survives model error
-0.00%0.02%0.05%0.07%0.10%0.0×1.6×3.2×4.8×6.4×8.0×leverage fraction fexpected log-growth per bar
g(f) empiricalf★ argmaxparametric f★
Maximum expected log-growth from leveraging the historical return distribution. Empirical f★ argmaxes the sample expectation; parametric f★ = μ/σ² is Merton's continuous-time optimum.

§18 · MC equity fan

Bootstrapped equity fan at 0.10× leverage
Median CAGR/bar -0.000% · annualized Sharpe -16.56400 paths × 720 bars · leverage 0.10× · bootstrap from 4999 observed returns
Sharpe / barμ/σ
-0.007
annualized -16.56
μ per barafter L
-0.000%
σ per barafter L
0.00%
VaR 95%5%
0.00%
per-bar worst-case
CVaR 95%ES
0.01%
mean tail loss
Max DD (median)MDD
-0.0%
0.95×0.97×0.99×1.01×1.03×1.05×0120240360480600720startbar #equity multiple
median25/75 band5/95 band
Median path with 25/75 and 5/95 percentile bands across 400 simulated careers. Bars resample with replacement from the observed return distribution — preserves fat tails the parametric model misses.

§19 · Annualized breakdown

Annualized return components
APR -819% · APY -100% · Sharpe -14.47σ ann 57% · Sortino -10.32 · n 4999
-1737%-1376%-1015%-654%-293%68%-819.4%APR (simple)-100.0%APY (compound)56.6%Ann. vol σ-1447.4%Sharpe (ann)-1031.9%Sortino (ann)
Simple APR vs compounded APY · annualized volatility · risk-adjusted Sharpe and Sortino. All scaled by √(periods/yr).

§20 · GARCH(1,1) volatility band

GARCH(1,1) · conditional vol envelope (±2σ)
GARCH persistence α+β = 0.980· σ̂ₜ = 1.000% · long-run σ = 2.236%
0.3570.3650.3730.3820.3900.398t-4999t-4166t-3333t-2500t-1666t-833t-0

Persistence near 1 ⇒ vol clusters strongly (slow mean reversion). Long-run σ is the unconditional target the conditional vol orbits. The ±2σ band reflects time-varying scale, unlike a flat-vol band.

Time-varying volatility band fitted to the price series. Persistence α+β > 0.98 means vol shocks decay slowly — recent moves stay relevant.

§∞ · Provenance & attestation

Upstream
api.hyperliquid.xyz
Snapshot fetched
2026-06-14 14:28:02 UTC
Snapshot age
3.5s
History points
25 hourly closes
Page rendered
2026-06-14 14:28:05 UTC
Storage policy
no persistence — fetched on every request
SHA-256 attestation
b5bcc032f1abb7853ee0173743406cbc480953e17548f685f203d2571764943a · deterministic hash of the source snapshot — proves this page was rendered from this exact data
Open data licence
CC0 / public domain · free to mirror, syndicate, analyse

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Also see: /arb opportunities · RSS feed

Market depth

▸ live order book · Hyperliquid perp
Depth within 1bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Depth within 5bp
$5.72K
bid $3.48K · ask $2.23K
Depth within 10bp
$8.61K
bid $4.91K · ask $3.70K
Depth within 50bp
$70.62K
bid $15.06K · ask $55.56K
Mid price
0.373425
(best bid + best ask) / 2
Spread
3.5bp
(bestAsk − bestBid) / mid
Imbalance (whole book)
-0.562
ask-heavy
Imbalance (top-5)
-0.167
ask-heavy top-of-book

Slippage scenarios

▸ live book walk · Hyperliquid perp

Simulating a market order at three notionals against the live book. Slippage = avg execution price vs. mid, in basis points. Worst fill = price of the deepest level touched. Live JSON: /api/asset/hl-RUNE/slippage?size=10000&side=buy

SideNotionalAvg fillSlippageWorst fillLevelsStatus
BUY$1.00K0.3735222.61bp0.3735904FILLED
BUY$10.00K0.37392513.40bp0.37419010FILLED
BUY$100.00K0.37473034.95bp0.37726020PARTIAL
SELL$1.00K0.3733302.55bp0.3732604FILLED
SELL$10.00K0.37304510.18bp0.37253013FILLED
SELL$100.00K0.37239227.67bp0.37090020PARTIAL

Funding carry

▸ LONGS PAY · shorts receive
Hourly funding
+1.250e-5
0.00125% / hr
Annualised APR
10.958%
hourly · 24 · 365.25
Long: days to 1% carry
33.3d
longs pay
Short: days to 1% carry
33.3d
shorts receive
SideDirectionAnnualised carryDays → 1%Days → 10%
LONGPAY-10.958%33.3d333.3d
SHORTRECEIVE10.958%33.3d333.3d

/api/asset/hl-RUNE/carry · same metrics, JSON

Volume profile

▸ real volume · Hyperliquid candlesstep $ 1 · 25 records
Price binBarsVolumeDistribution
$0.000000–$1.0000★25$962.00K

★ POC = Point of Control (highest-volume bin). Live JSON: /api/asset/hl-RUNE/volprofile?priceStep=1

Order flow

▸ BID-LEAN · +0.192 · Hyperliquid candles
Bars (buy / sell)
9 / 15
1 unclassified
Buy weight
$559.97K
real volume
Sell weight
$379.95K
real volume
Net delta
$180.01K
buyers net
Imbalance
19.15%
(buy − sell) / (buy + sell)
Toxicity (VPIN)
19.2%
two-sided / balanced
Impact (|Δp|/vol)
—
needs real volume

Sparkline = cumulative delta over the 25-record window./api/asset/hl-RUNE/flow?rollingWindow=30

Cascade clusters

▸ DOWN · 4 found · deepest 4.48% · Hyperliquid candles

Price-only proxy for forced-unwind clusters. No exchange liquidation feed is wired — read each row as a candidate event, not a confirmed liquidation.

#WindowDurationPeak → TroughDrawdownBars
#12026-06-13 22:00:00Z7.0h0.391570→0.3740404.477%8
#22026-06-14 10:00:00Z4.0h0.382640→0.3733002.441%5
#32026-06-13 16:00:00Z2.0h0.394670→0.3885501.551%3

/api/asset/hl-RUNE/cascades?windowMs=10800000&minDrawdownPct=0.005 · full list + parameters in JSON

Risk metrics

▸ sovereign store · 5,000 barsperiods/year ≈ 5.26M
Realized vol (annualised)
56.61%
σ per bar = 0.000247
Mean return (annualised)
-819.43%
μ per bar = -0.000002
Sharpe (rf=0)
-14.47
annualised; risk-free assumed zero
Max drawdown
2.91%
peak 0.38 → trough 0.37 over 2153 bars

/api/asset/hl-RUNE/risk · same metrics, JSON