HYPERLIQUID · PERPETUAL FUTURES

PURR

PURR-USD perpetual · 24/7 trading on Hyperliquid

▸ Advanced metrics · M2M bundle

hyperliquid · perp-purr · fresh · feed 2s old
24h sparkline · 60 pts▲ 1.26%
realized vol (ann.)
50.91%
max drawdown
1.44%
sharpe
-55.00
ulcer index
0.49%
RMS drawdown
pain index
0.41%
mean drawdown
mod. VaR 95%
0.00%
Cornish-Fisher
martin ratio
-5751.12
ret / ulcer
CDaR 95%
1.08%
cond. drawdown
gain/pain
0.84
Σgain / Σ|loss|
sterling
-2597.60
ret / CDaR
omega (θ=0)
0.84
upside/downside
roll spread
0.0 bps
implied (price-only)
bars used
2000
store
spread
—
24h Δ
1.26%
flow lean
—
carry
longs_pay
10.95%
signalNEUTRALconfidence 45%
  • 24h change +1.26%
  • funding: longs pay — perp shorts get paid to wait
  • mark rich vs HL oracle by 57.5bps — fade/short bias
Same bundle via M2M API: /api/m2m/hl-PURR/bundle · venue execution: hyperliquid →
LIVEPOLL0SRCFRESH1.9s⏱--:--:-- UTC8NEXT8.0sUP0s--:--HIST0/30
▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC FRESH·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC FRESH·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·
MARK · live
$0.092
24h Δ · live
1.26%
24h vol · live
$0.1M
PURR · live 24h price
n=25 · μ=0.0918 · σ=0.0006 · range [0.0904, 0.0926] · R²=0.175▲ RISING +0.42%σ LOW 0.71%LAST 0.09160.09260.09210.09150.09100.0904μ = 0.0918max 0.0926min 0.0904dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.18μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxminlive endpoint
25 closes · last $0.09
Funding direction · live
Long fee 48.1%Short fee 51.9%SHORT FEE51.9%
Σ = 0.0%
Σ-sides total = 0.00% (100.00pp arb gap)
H(p) entropy = 0.999 / 1.00 bits (100%) · max uncertainty (~50/50)
Long fee
48.1%▬ +0.00pp
Short fee
51.9%▬ +0.00pp
1h funding 0.001250% · longs pay
Hourly contract volume · live
n=25 · Σ=1,221,634 · μ=48865.4 · σ=47683.4 · CV=0.98BURSTYcumulative energy ↗ · 50% by h=6057,255114,511171,766229,021μ = 48865229,02150%h1h5h9h13h17h21h25#1 peak#2-3> μactivequietμ linecum energy
peak 229021 contracts
Live numerics · pulse on poll
LIVE NUMERICS9 metrics·POLL 0
⏱snapshot age
1.9s
$mark $
$0.0915
$mid $
$0.0915
◉prev-day close
$0.0904
Δ24h Δ %
+1.261%
$24h vol $
$111.44k
◐open interest $
$6.96M
%funding (1h)
0.001250%
%funding (yr)
+10.95%/yr

§1 · 24h time-series

Close price · hourly
n=25 · μ=0.0918 · σ=0.0006 · range [0.0904, 0.0926] · R²=0.175▲ RISING +0.42%σ LOW 0.71%LAST 0.09160.09260.09210.09150.09100.0904μ = 0.0918max 0.0926min 0.0904dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.18μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
mark $0.0915 · 24h 1.26% · range $[0.0904, 0.0926]
OHLC candles · hourly
n=25 · up 14 · down 11 (56% up) · range [0.0903, 0.0930] · σ=0.0006 · CV=0.01 · bodyµ=50%BULLISH +1.44%CLOSE 0.0916 vs OPEN 0.0903 (+1.44%)&#9650; CLOSE 0.09160.09300.09230.09160.09100.0903μ close = 0.0918O0.090 H0.091 L0.090 C0.091 (+1.01%)O0.090 H0.091 L0.090 C0.091 (+1.01%)O0.091 H0.092 L0.091 C0.092 (+0.59%)O0.091 H0.092 L0.091 C0.092 (+0.59%)O0.091 H0.092 L0.091 C0.092 (+0.47%)O0.091 H0.092 L0.091 C0.092 (+0.47%)O0.092 H0.092 L0.090 C0.090 (-1.45%)O0.092 H0.092 L0.090 C0.090 (-1.45%)O0.090 H0.091 L0.090 C0.090 (-0.01%)O0.090 H0.091 L0.090 C0.090 (-0.01%)O0.091 H0.091 L0.091 C0.091 (+0.82%)O0.091 H0.091 L0.091 C0.091 (+0.82%)O0.091 H0.091 L0.090 C0.091 (-0.86%)O0.091 H0.091 L0.090 C0.091 (-0.86%)1.5%O0.091 H0.092 L0.091 C0.092 (+1.51%)O0.091 H0.092 L0.091 C0.092 (+1.51%)O0.092 H0.092 L0.092 C0.092 (+0.38%)O0.092 H0.092 L0.092 C0.092 (+0.38%)O0.092 H0.092 L0.091 C0.092 (+0.22%)O0.092 H0.092 L0.091 C0.092 (+0.22%)O0.092 H0.092 L0.092 C0.092 (+0.59%)O0.092 H0.092 L0.092 C0.092 (+0.59%)O0.092 H0.092 L0.092 C0.092 (-0.01%)O0.092 H0.092 L0.092 C0.092 (-0.01%)O0.092 H0.093 L0.092 C0.093 (+0.38%)O0.092 H0.093 L0.092 C0.093 (+0.38%)O0.092 H0.093 L0.092 C0.093 (+0.25%)O0.092 H0.093 L0.092 C0.093 (+0.25%)O0.092 H0.093 L0.091 C0.092 (-0.57%)O0.092 H0.093 L0.091 C0.092 (-0.57%)O0.092 H0.092 L0.091 C0.091 (-0.37%)O0.092 H0.092 L0.091 C0.091 (-0.37%)O0.091 H0.092 L0.091 C0.091 (+0.05%)O0.091 H0.092 L0.091 C0.091 (+0.05%)O0.091 H0.092 L0.091 C0.091 (+0.10%)O0.091 H0.092 L0.091 C0.091 (+0.10%)O0.091 H0.091 L0.091 C0.091 (-0.01%)O0.091 H0.091 L0.091 C0.091 (-0.01%)O0.092 H0.092 L0.092 C0.092 (+0.16%)O0.092 H0.092 L0.092 C0.092 (+0.16%)O0.092 H0.093 L0.092 C0.093 (+1.12%)O0.092 H0.093 L0.092 C0.093 (+1.12%)O0.093 H0.093 L0.092 C0.092 (-0.14%)O0.093 H0.093 L0.092 C0.092 (-0.14%)O0.093 H0.093 L0.092 C0.092 (-0.40%)O0.093 H0.093 L0.092 C0.092 (-0.40%)O0.092 H0.093 L0.092 C0.092 (-0.13%)O0.092 H0.093 L0.092 C0.092 (-0.13%)O0.092 H0.092 L0.091 C0.092 (-0.88%)O0.092 H0.092 L0.091 C0.092 (-0.88%)#1#5#9#13#17#21#25up bar (C≥O)down bar (C<O)MA(5) closeμ closedoji (~no body)biggest body
25 bars
Hourly volume (base units)
n=25 · Σ=1,221,634 · μ=48865.4 · σ=47683.4 · CV=0.98BURSTYcumulative energy &nearr; · 50% by h=6057,255114,511171,766229,021μ = 4886543,730 · 19.1% peak43,730 · 19.1% peak90,204 · 39.4% peak90,204 · 39.4% peak80,712 · 35.2% peak80,712 · 35.2% peak91,089 · 39.8% peak91,089 · 39.8% peak83,083 · 36.3% peak83,083 · 36.3% peak229,021229,021 · 100.0% peak229,021 · 100.0% peak43,363 · 18.9% peak43,363 · 18.9% peak32,810 · 14.3% peak32,810 · 14.3% peak10,176 · 4.4% peak10,176 · 4.4% peak34,274 · 15.0% peak34,274 · 15.0% peak57,334 · 25.0% peak57,334 · 25.0% peak25,240 · 11.0% peak25,240 · 11.0% peak43,626 · 19.0% peak43,626 · 19.0% peak11,407 · 5.0% peak11,407 · 5.0% peak104,135 · 45.5% peak104,135 · 45.5% peak45,917 · 20.0% peak45,917 · 20.0% peak5,032 · 2.2% peak5,032 · 2.2% peak29,437 · 12.9% peak29,437 · 12.9% peak29,625 · 12.9% peak29,625 · 12.9% peak4,664 · 2.0% peak4,664 · 2.0% peak60,070 · 26.2% peak60,070 · 26.2% peak3,522 · 1.5% peak3,522 · 1.5% peak21,493 · 9.4% peak21,493 · 9.4% peak11,807 · 5.2% peak11,807 · 5.2% peak29,863 · 13.0% peak29,863 · 13.0% peak50%#1#5#9#13#17#21#25#1 peak#2-3> μactivequietμ linecum energy
Σ vol 1221634 · peak 229021 · CV 0.98

§2 · Returns distribution (log-returns)

Histogram of rₜ = ln(pₜ/pₜ₋₁)
n=24 · 12 bins · μ=0.0001 · σ=0.0062 · skew=0.32 (symmetric) · kurt=0.76 (mesokurtic)86420 1-132.85bpbin -132.85bp · n=1 · 12.5% peakbin -132.85bp · n=1 · 12.5% peak 1-106.07bpbin -106.07bp · n=1 · 12.5% peakbin -106.07bp · n=1 · 12.5% peak 1-79.28bpbin -79.28bp · n=1 · 12.5% peakbin -79.28bp · n=1 · 12.5% peak 1-52.49bpbin -52.49bp · n=1 · 12.5% peakbin -52.49bp · n=1 · 12.5% peak 5-25.71bpbin -25.71bp · n=5 · 62.5% peakbin -25.71bp · n=5 · 62.5% peak 81.08bpbin 1.08bp · n=8 · 100.0% peakbin 1.08bp · n=8 · 100.0% peak 227.86bpbin 27.86bp · n=2 · 25.0% peakbin 27.86bp · n=2 · 25.0% peak 254.65bpbin 54.65bp · n=2 · 25.0% peakbin 54.65bp · n=2 · 25.0% peak 181.44bpbin 81.44bp · n=1 · 12.5% peakbin 81.44bp · n=1 · 12.5% peak 1108.22bpbin 108.22bp · n=1 · 12.5% peakbin 108.22bp · n=1 · 12.5% peak135.01bp 1161.79bpbin 161.79bp · n=1 · 12.5% peakbin 161.79bp · n=1 · 12.5% peakμΔ < 0 · loss barsΔ ≈ 0 · flatΔ > 0 · gain barsN(μ,σ²) referenceμ line · ±σ band shaded
n=24 · positive 10 · negative 14
Q-Q plot · standardised rₜ vs N(0,1)
n=24 · skew=0.31 · kurt=1.01 · near 18 / mid 6 / far 0 · OLS slope=0.99 intercept=-0.00APPROXIMATELY NORMALMILDLY HEAVY UPPERLOWER TAIL NORMAL-3σ-3σ-2σ-2σ-1σ-1σ+0σ+0σ+1σ+1σ+2σ+2σ+3σ+3σsample ↓marginal: sample bars + theoretical N(0,1) curve →theoretical Φ⁻¹(p) →↑ sample z-quantile|Δ| < 0.3σ · on the line|Δ| < 1σ · moderate|Δ| ≥ 1σ · outliery = x refOLS fit

§3 · Spot quote

Mark price
$0.0915
Mid price
$0.0915
24h change
+1.26%
Mark–mid spread
0.87 bps
Prev-day close
$0.0904

§4 · Sample moments (prices)

Descriptive statistics · 5-number summary · shape diagnostics
SAMPLE MOMENTS · N=25LEFT-SKEWED (G₁=-0.59)
μ MEAN0.0918$95% CI: [0.0915$, 0.0920$]
σ STD DEV0.0006$σ² = 0.004×10⁻⁴ · CV = 0.71%
med MEDIAN0.0918$Q₁ 0.0915$ · Q₃ 0.0922$
FIVE-NUMBER SUMMARY · BOX PLOTrange 0.0022$ · IQR 0.0008$ (1.349σ→0.0009$)
min 0.0904$Q₁ 0.0915$med 0.0918$Q₃ 0.0922$max 0.0926$μ
SKEWNESS · G₁-0.588left-skewed
−3−10+1+3
EXCESS KURTOSIS · G₂-0.447mesokurtic · normal-like
−30+2+4+6
μ ↔ median≈ equal · symmetric|μ−med| / σ = 0.02
σ × 1.349 ↔ IQRconsistent with normalratio = 1.14
range ↔ σconcentrated (range < 4σ)range / σ = 3.48
μ = mean · σ = standard deviation · CV = coefficient of variation. Skew (G₁): >0 right-skewed. Kurt (G₂, excess): >0 leptokurtic. 95% CI = μ ± 1.96·SE.

§5 · Returns analytics (log-returns)

Risk-adjusted performance · log-returns
RETURNS · RISK-ADJUSTEDEXCELLENT · SR=2.42
μᵣ MEAN / h+0.017414%drift is positive per h · |μ|/σ = 0.026
σᵣ STD / h0.672914%σ²ᵣ = 0.453×10⁻⁴ · CV = 38.64×
σ ANNUALISED62.98%/yrscaled by √8760 (hourly→yearly) · 0.673%/h base
RISK-ADJUSTED PERFORMANCEhigher = better edge per unit risk
SHARPE (annualised)2.42excellent · top-decile
-2-10+1+2+3+4
SORTINO (annualised)2.86strong downside-adjusted
-2-10+1+2+3+4
CALMAR (return / max-DD)100.00exceptional DD control
-20+2+4+6
RETURN-DISTRIBUTION SHAPE|skew| < 0.5 ≈ symmetric · |kurt| < 1 ≈ mesokurtic
SKEWNESS · G₁0.33approximately symmetric
-3-10+1+3
EXCESS KURTOSIS · G₂1.56leptokurtic · fat tails
-30+2+4+6
SORTINO vs SHARPEdownside drag · negatively skewedSoR / SR = 1.18
CALMAR · DD CONTROLdrawdown control exceptionalCR = 100.00
EXPECTED EDGE+152.55%/yr driftμ × 8760 = annualised expectation
rₜ = ln(pₜ/pₜ₋₁). σ × √8760 = annualised. Sharpe = μ/σ scaled; Sortino uses downside-only vol; Calmar = annual return / max drawdown.

§6 · Risk metrics

Tail risk + drawdown · downside diagnostics
TAIL & DRAWDOWN RISKHIGH · 95% VaR 1.03%
VaR₉₅ (h)1.035%5% prob of larger adverse h move
VaR₉₉ (h)1.370%1% prob · extreme-tail threshold
ES₉₅ (CVaR)1.262%expected loss given 5% tail event
MAX DRAWDOWN1.47%3h from peak to trough
TAIL-RISK LADDER (h losses)larger negative = worse · markers show severity
0 · no lossVaR₉₅−1.035%VaR₉₉−1.370%ES₉₅−1.262%worst tail ←→ zero loss
MAX DRAWDOWN PROFILEmoderate drawdown · 3h duration
PEAK9.18$
−1.47% drawdown over 3h
9.04$TROUGH
ES / VaR · TAIL THICKNESSmild tail heaviness|ES₉₅| / |VaR₉₅| = 1.22× (normal ≈ 1.25)
VaR₉₉ / VaR₉₅ · CONCENTRATIONmoderate extreme-tail concentrationratio = 1.32× (normal ≈ 1.41)
DRAWDOWN · CAPITAL DURATIONmoderate drawdownrecovery needed: +1.49% (compounding)
VaR = quantile loss · ES (CVaR) = expected loss conditional on tail · DD = peak-to-trough decline. Under normality ES₉₅/VaR₉₅ ≈ 1.25; ratio > 1.5 ⇒ fat-tail regime.

§7 · Technicals

RSI(14)
50.0 · neutral
Bollinger %B
0.342 · within band
Bollinger upper
$0.0930
Bollinger MA
$0.0919
Bollinger lower
$0.0909

§8 · Time-series structure

Regime & autocorrelation diagnostics
TIME-SERIES STRUCTUREREGIME: MEAN-REVERTING · ρ(1) -0.21 + ADF rejected
ρ(1) AUTOCORR-0.208within white-noise band
ρ(2) AUTOCORR-0.127lag-2 not significant
H · HURST EXPONENT0.992strongly persistent
OLS TREND · t-STAT+2.211significant @ α=0.05
HURST EXPONENT [0, 1]strongly persistent · H = 0.992
H = 0.992STRONGLY PERSISTENT
0
anti-persistent0.45
mean-reverting0.5
random walk0.55
persistent1
strongly trending
AUTOCORRELATION FUNCTION · ρ(k) for k=1..5WHITE NOISE · no significant lags
k=1-0.208k=2-0.127k=3+0.198k=4-0.358k=5-0.0140+1−1+0.41−0.41+ momentum (ρ > +0.41)− reversal (ρ < −0.41)noise (within band)±2/√n threshold
OLS TREND · t-STAT · [-5, +5]SIGNIFICANT @ 5% (|t|=2.21)
−5 reject−1.960 retain H₀+1.96+5 reject
REGIME CLASSIFICATIONMEAN-REVERTING · ρ(1) -0.21 + ADF rejectedfrom Hurst + ρ(1) joint diagnosis
PREDICTABILITY · score 1.00very high · strong structure|ρ(1)| + 2·|H − 0.5| heuristic
TREND SIGNIFICANCESIGNIFICANT @ 5% (|t|=2.21)α=0.05 critical |t|=1.96 · α=0.01 |t|=2.58
ρ(k) = lag-k sample autocorrelation · H = R/S Hurst exponent · t = OLS-trend t-statistic. Significance bands at ±2/√n approximate the 95% white-noise envelope. α=0.05 critical |t|=1.96; α=0.01 |t|=2.58.

§9 · Microstructure

24h volume (USD)
$111.44k
Open interest (USD)
$6.96M
Vol / OI (turnover)
0.02x
1h funding
0.001250%
Funding (annualised)
+10.95%/yr

§10 · Position sizing

Continuous Kelly (μ/σ²)
3.846× leverage · optimal log-utility leverage
Half-Kelly
1.923× · industry-standard conservative
Quarter-Kelly
0.961×

§11 · Hourly return heatmap

24-hour signed Δln-r grid · green = up · red = down
HOURLY RETURN HEATMAP · n=24 bars · best 1.75% · worst -1.46% · typical |Δ| 0.44%MILD BULLISH +0.42%BEST+1.75%21hWORST-1.46%17hTYPICAL |Δ|0.44%mean absoluteCUMULATIVE+0.42%Σ signed ΔSTREAK↘ 4down-runASIA · 00-08 UTCμ -0.06% · Σ -0.48%EUROPE · 08-16 UTCμ +0.09% · Σ +0.70%US · 16-24 UTCμ +0.02% · Σ +0.20%CUMULATIVE Δ PATH · final +0.42%+1.57%-0.89%0.59% · 15h0.59% · 15h0.59%15h-0.00% · 16h-0.00% · 16h-0.00%16h-1.46% · 17h-1.46% · 17h-1.46%17h▼ WORST-0.02% · 18h-0.02% · 18h-0.02%18h1.09% · 19h1.09% · 19h1.09%19h-0.88% · 20h-0.88% · 20h-0.88%20h1.75% · 21h1.75% · 21h1.75%21h★ BEST-0.01% · 22h-0.01% · 22h-0.01%22h-0.27% · 23h-0.27% · 23h-0.27%23h0.49% · 00h0.49% · 00h0.49%00h0.03% · 01h0.03% · 01h0.03%01h0.23% · 02h0.23% · 02h0.23%02h0.03% · 03h0.03% · 03h0.03%03h-1.06% · 04h-1.06% · 04h-1.06%04h-0.23% · 05h-0.23% · 05h-0.23%05h0.05% · 06h0.05% · 06h0.05%06h-0.01% · 07h-0.01% · 07h-0.01%07h-0.00% · 08h-0.00% · 08h-0.00%08h0.31% · 09h0.31% · 09h0.31%09h0.93% · 10h0.93% · 10h0.93%10h-0.25% · 11h-0.25% · 11h-0.25%11h-0.16% · 12h-0.16% · 12h-0.16%12h-0.21% · 13h-0.21% · 13h-0.21%13h-0.51% · 14h-0.51% · 14h-0.51%14hTIME PATTERNEurope-led (+0.70%)RUNSup max 4 · down max 4BREADTH42% up · 58% down
10 up bars · 14 down · best 1.75% · worst -1.46% · typical |Δ| 0.441%

§12 · Equity curve & underwater drawdown

Cumulative compounded return + running peak-to-trough
EQUITY & DRAWDOWN ANALYSIS · n=25 barsPROFITABLE +0.37%FINAL+0.37%MAX DD-1.48%RECOVERYONGOING · 5 barsMAX RUN-UP+1.54%UNDERWATER18/25 (72%)STREAK↘ 4EQUITY CURVE · end 1.0037 · peak 1.0154 · range [0.9910, 1.0154]1.01540.9910break-even = 1★ PEAK 1.0154UNDERWATER DRAWDOWN · max -1.48% · moderate0%-1.48%▼ TROUGH -1.48%TOP DRAWDOWN PERIODS · 3 total#1 -1.48%bar 3-7 · 5 bars · recovered#2 -1.29%bar 15-25 · 11 bars · ONGOING#3 -0.28%bar 9-10 · 2 bars · recoveredDD SEVERITYmoderate (max -1.48%)RECOVERYongoing · 23 barsTIME UNDER WATER72% of session · 18/25 bars
final equity 1.0037 (0.37%) · max DD -1.48% · time-under-water 18/25 bars

§13 · Rolling-window statistics (w = 6 bars)

Rolling annualised Sharpe ratio · green positive · red negative
n=19 · +12 / −7 (63% positive) · μ=6.32 · σ=28.90MIXED EDGELAST 3.47 (-0.10σ vs μ)47.8023.900.00-23.90-47.80μ = 6.32-11.39-11.396.256.256.236.2326.9826.9835.5235.5219.5219.5247.8047.8030.1730.17-16.25-16.25-15.19-15.19-32.23-32.23-33.75-33.75-44.51-44.51-31.37-31.3739.5239.5238.7338.7329.2729.2721.2421.243.473.47v > 0 · positivev < 0 · negativeμ mean lineμ ± σ bandlatest bar (outlined)
latest 3.469 · range [-44.51, 47.80] · μ 6.317 · positive Sharpe = excess-return-per-risk earned by buying-and-holding through this window
Rolling annualised volatility (%)
n=19 · μ=60.3493 · σ=26.6958 · range [23.9813, 111.6966] · R²=0.641▼ FALLING -44.25%σ EXTREME 44.24%LAST 48.7369111.696689.767867.839045.910123.9813μ = 60.3493max 111.6966min 23.9813dataMA(3)OLS R²=0.64μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
latest 48.74% · range [23.98%, 111.70%] · μ 60.35% · σ̂ scaled to annualised (×√8760)
Rolling lag-1 autocorrelation ρ(1)
n=19 · +6 / −13 (32% positive) · μ=-0.164 · σ=0.275MEAN-REVERSIONLAST 0.169 (+1.21σ vs μ)0.6770.3390.000-0.339-0.677μ = -0.164-0.230-0.230-0.335-0.335-0.373-0.373-0.677-0.677-0.655-0.655-0.523-0.523-0.133-0.133-0.463-0.463-0.053-0.0530.1180.1180.0240.024-0.018-0.018-0.103-0.1030.1590.1590.2190.219-0.217-0.217-0.062-0.0620.0310.0310.1690.169v > 0 · positivev < 0 · negativeμ mean lineμ ± σ bandlatest bar (outlined)
latest 0.169 · |ρ| > 0.3 ⇒ regime with persistence (ρ > 0) or reversal (ρ < 0) · |ρ| ≤ 0.1 = consistent with random walk

§14 · Hypothesis tests (α = 0.05)

Formal inference at 5% significance
ALL TESTS PASS · data behaves as nominal0 reject·6 pass·α = 0.05
𝒩

Jarque-Bera

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Δln-r ~ Normal(μ, σ²)

STATISTIC
2.8531
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.2401
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainednormality not rejected
ρ

Ljung-Box(h=5)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: No serial autocorrelation up to lag 5

STATISTIC
6.7863
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.2360
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedconsistent with white noise
Ψ

Dickey-Fuller (τ_μ)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: p has a unit root (non-stationary)

STATISTIC
-2.5790
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.0985
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedrandom-walk behaviour (crit ≈ -2.86)
±

Wald-Wolfowitz runs

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Sign sequence of Δ is random

STATISTIC
-0.2866
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.7744
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedsigns appear random (12 runs)
χ

KPSS (μ stationarity)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: p IS level-stationary

STATISTIC
0.2947
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.1913
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedstationary not rejected (crit 0.463)
χ

Variance ratio q=3

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Δln-r is a random walk · VR = 1

STATISTIC
-1.1575
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.2471
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedVR 0.648 ≈ 1 (RW behaviour)
Each row states an explicit null H₀, the test statistic, an approximated p-value, and the decision. REJECT means evidence against H₀. KPSS complements ADF (rejecting both ⇒ ambiguous; rejecting one ⇒ clean verdict).

§15 · Spectral analysis (DFT periodogram)

Power spectrum of Δln-r · ‖X̂(k)‖²/n
n=12 bins · noise floor μ=4.43e-5 · top T=3.00h (24.9%) · top-3 cover 62.5%2 SIGNIFICANT CYCLEScumulative energy ↗ (2 bins above 2× noise)1.3e-49.9e-56.6e-53.3e-50.0e+0μ noise floor2× noise (significance)period 24.0 · power 4.64e-6 · 0.9% energyperiod 24.0 · power 4.64e-6 · 0.9% energyperiod 12.0 · power 7.18e-5 · 13.5% energyperiod 12.0 · power 7.18e-5 · 13.5% energyperiod 8.0 · power 1.24e-6 · 0.2% energyperiod 8.0 · power 1.24e-6 · 0.2% energyperiod 6.0 · power 3.64e-5 · 6.8% energyperiod 6.0 · power 3.64e-5 · 6.8% energyperiod 4.8 · power 4.18e-5 · 7.9% energyperiod 4.8 · power 4.18e-5 · 7.9% energyperiod 4.0 · power 2.62e-5 · 4.9% energyperiod 4.0 · power 2.62e-5 · 4.9% energyperiod 3.4 · power 1.54e-5 · 2.9% energyperiod 3.4 · power 1.54e-5 · 2.9% energyperiod 3.0 · power 1.32e-4 · 24.9% energyperiod 3.0 · power 1.32e-4 · 24.9% energyperiod 2.7 · power 1.28e-4 · 24.1% energyperiod 2.7 · power 1.28e-4 · 24.1% energyperiod 2.4 · power 2.02e-5 · 3.8% energyperiod 2.4 · power 2.02e-5 · 3.8% energyperiod 2.2 · power 3.16e-5 · 5.9% energyperiod 2.2 · power 3.16e-5 · 5.9% energyperiod 2.0 · power 2.19e-5 · 4.1% energyperiod 2.0 · power 2.19e-5 · 4.1% energy50% by T=3.0h#1 dominantT=3.00h#2T=2.67h#3T=12.00hT=2hT=3hT=4hT=6hT=8hT=12hT=16hT=24h← shorter cycle (high freq · Nyquist=½) · period T (bars per cycle) · longer cycle (low freq · 1/n) →#1 dominant#2 peak#3 peak> 2× noisenoiseμ floor2μ sig.cum energy
dominant period ≈ 3.00h (freq 0.333) · concentrates 24.9% of total energy · Σ|X̂|²/n = 5.317e-4

▸ Depth section using sovereign-store price series (5000 bars · effective 5257847 bars/year) — annualisation reflects native polling cadence, not upstream timeframes.

§16 · NOSTRADAMUS continuous quant — perp leverage & bootstrap MC

Continuous-price extension of the prediction-market quant module. Kelly growth on observed returns (Merton μ/σ² parametric vs argmax empirical), Monte-Carlo equity fan bootstrapped from the historical return distribution at quarter-Kelly leverage, and an annualized return decomposition. Sweep parameters in the simulator.

§17 · Continuous Kelly

Continuous-Kelly growth · g(f) = E[ln(1 + f·r)]
f★ empirical 3.77× · g(f★) 0.000%/barparametric μ/σ² 3.76× · μ 0.000% · σ 0.02%
μ per barmean
0.000%
σ per barvol
0.02%
Empirical f★argmax g(f)
3.77×
from observed distribution
Parametric f★μ/σ²
3.76×
Merton continuous-time
Half-Kelly½ f★
1.88×
~⅔ of full growth, half the variance
Quarter-Kelly¼ f★
0.94×
industry default — survives model error
-0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.0×1.6×3.2×4.8×6.4×8.0×f★ empμ/σ²leverage fraction fexpected log-growth per bar
g(f) empiricalf★ argmaxparametric f★
Maximum expected log-growth from leveraging the historical return distribution. Empirical f★ argmaxes the sample expectation; parametric f★ = μ/σ² is Merton's continuous-time optimum.

§18 · MC equity fan

Bootstrapped equity fan at 0.94× leverage
Median CAGR/bar 0.000% · annualized Sharpe 2.97400 paths × 720 bars · leverage 0.94× · bootstrap from 4999 observed returns
Sharpe / barμ/σ
0.001
annualized 2.97
μ per barafter L
0.000%
σ per barafter L
0.02%
VaR 95%5%
0.01%
per-bar worst-case
CVaR 95%ES
0.04%
mean tail loss
Max DD (median)MDD
-0.1%
0.94×0.97×0.99×1.01×1.04×1.06×0120240360480600720startbar #equity multiple
median25/75 band5/95 band
Median path with 25/75 and 5/95 percentile bands across 400 simulated careers. Bars resample with replacement from the observed return distribution — preserves fat tails the parametric model misses.

§19 · Annualized breakdown

Annualized return components
APR 99% · APY 136% · Sharpe 1.93σ ann 51% · Sortino 1.26 · n 4999
0%46%93%139%185%231%98.9%APR (simple)135.7%APY (compound)51.3%Ann. vol σ192.9%Sharpe (ann)125.8%Sortino (ann)
Simple APR vs compounded APY · annualized volatility · risk-adjusted Sharpe and Sortino. All scaled by √(periods/yr).

§20 · GARCH(1,1) volatility band

GARCH(1,1) · conditional vol envelope (±2σ)
GARCH persistence α+β = 0.980· σ̂ₜ = 1.001% · long-run σ = 2.236%
0.0870.0890.0910.0930.0950.097t-4999t-4166t-3333t-2500t-1666t-833t-0

Persistence near 1 ⇒ vol clusters strongly (slow mean reversion). Long-run σ is the unconditional target the conditional vol orbits. The ±2σ band reflects time-varying scale, unlike a flat-vol band.

Time-varying volatility band fitted to the price series. Persistence α+β > 0.98 means vol shocks decay slowly — recent moves stay relevant.

§∞ · Provenance & attestation

Upstream
api.hyperliquid.xyz
Snapshot fetched
2026-06-14 14:29:13 UTC
Snapshot age
1.9s
History points
25 hourly closes
Page rendered
2026-06-14 14:29:15 UTC
Storage policy
no persistence — fetched on every request
SHA-256 attestation
9569271bfd59853543ed5061fc0ac20bbc63f100bd273ebff2cedbd7563a0991 · deterministic hash of the source snapshot — proves this page was rendered from this exact data
Open data licence
CC0 / public domain · free to mirror, syndicate, analyse

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Also see: /arb opportunities · RSS feed

Market depth

▸ live order book · Hyperliquid perp
Depth within 1bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Depth within 5bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Depth within 10bp
$941
bid $20 · ask $921
Depth within 50bp
$2.11K
bid $159 · ask $1.95K
Mid price
0.091523
(best bid + best ask) / 2
Spread
15.0bp
(bestAsk − bestBid) / mid
Imbalance (whole book)
-0.728
ask-heavy
Imbalance (top-5)
-0.858
ask-heavy top-of-book

Slippage scenarios

▸ live book walk · Hyperliquid perp

Simulating a market order at three notionals against the live book. Slippage = avg execution price vs. mid, in basis points. Worst fill = price of the deepest level touched. Live JSON: /api/asset/hl-PURR/slippage?size=10000&side=buy

SideNotionalAvg fillSlippageWorst fillLevelsStatus
BUY$1.00K0.0916038.79bp0.0917474FILLED
BUY$10.00K0.09199651.74bp0.09237320PARTIAL
BUY$100.00K0.09199651.74bp0.09237320PARTIAL
SELL$1.00K0.09096461.03bp0.09076920PARTIAL
SELL$10.00K0.09096461.03bp0.09076920PARTIAL
SELL$100.00K0.09096461.03bp0.09076920PARTIAL

Funding carry

▸ LONGS PAY · shorts receive
Hourly funding
+1.250e-5
0.00125% / hr
Annualised APR
10.958%
hourly · 24 · 365.25
Long: days to 1% carry
33.3d
longs pay
Short: days to 1% carry
33.3d
shorts receive
SideDirectionAnnualised carryDays → 1%Days → 10%
LONGPAY-10.958%33.3d333.3d
SHORTRECEIVE10.958%33.3d333.3d

/api/asset/hl-PURR/carry · same metrics, JSON

Volume profile

▸ real volume · Hyperliquid candlesstep $ 1 · 25 records
Price binBarsVolumeDistribution
$0.000000–$1.0000★25$1.22M

★ POC = Point of Control (highest-volume bin). Live JSON: /api/asset/hl-PURR/volprofile?priceStep=1

Order flow

▸ ASK-LEAN · -0.050 · Hyperliquid candles
Bars (buy / sell)
10 / 14
1 unclassified
Buy weight
$559.41K
real volume
Sell weight
$618.50K
real volume
Net delta
$59.09K
sellers net
Imbalance
-5.02%
(buy − sell) / (buy + sell)
Toxicity (VPIN)
5.0%
two-sided / balanced
Impact (|Δp|/vol)
—
needs real volume

Sparkline = cumulative delta over the 25-record window./api/asset/hl-PURR/flow?rollingWindow=30

Cascade clusters

▸ DOWN · 4 found · deepest 1.47% · Hyperliquid candles

Price-only proxy for forced-unwind clusters. No exchange liquidation feed is wired — read each row as a candidate event, not a confirmed liquidation.

#WindowDurationPeak → TroughDrawdownBars
#12026-06-13 17:00:00Z1.0h0.091751→0.0904001.472%2
#22026-06-14 04:00:00Z2.0h0.092649→0.0914551.289%3
#32026-06-14 13:00:00Z1.0h0.092630→0.0915921.121%2

/api/asset/hl-PURR/cascades?windowMs=10800000&minDrawdownPct=0.005 · full list + parameters in JSON

Risk metrics

▸ sovereign store · 5,000 barsperiods/year ≈ 5.26M
Realized vol (annualised)
51.26%
σ per bar = 0.000224
Mean return (annualised)
98.86%
μ per bar = 0.000000
Sharpe (rf=0)
1.93
annualised; risk-free assumed zero
Max drawdown
1.52%
peak 0.09 → trough 0.09 over 2395 bars

/api/asset/hl-PURR/risk · same metrics, JSON