HYPERLIQUID · PERPETUAL FUTURES

PROVE

PROVE-USD perpetual · 24/7 trading on Hyperliquid

▸ Advanced metrics · M2M bundle

hyperliquid · perp-prove · fresh · feed 3s old
24h sparkline · 60 pts▲ 2.23%
realized vol (ann.)
82.59%
max drawdown
1.62%
sharpe
3.66
ulcer index
0.92%
RMS drawdown
pain index
0.83%
mean drawdown
mod. VaR 95%
0.00%
Cornish-Fisher
martin ratio
327.22
ret / ulcer
CDaR 95%
1.48%
cond. drawdown
gain/pain
1.01
Σgain / Σ|loss|
sterling
204.03
ret / CDaR
omega (θ=0)
1.01
upside/downside
roll spread
0.0 bps
implied (price-only)
bars used
2000
store
spread
—
24h Δ
2.23%
flow lean
—
carry
longs_pay
10.95%
signalNEUTRALconfidence 34%
  • 24h change +2.23%
  • funding: longs pay — perp shorts get paid to wait
  • mark cheap vs HL oracle by 16.7bps — long bias
Same bundle via M2M API: /api/m2m/hl-PROVE/bundle · venue execution: hyperliquid →
LIVEPOLL0SRCFRESH2.9s⏱--:--:-- UTC8NEXT8.0sUP0s--:--HIST0/30
▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC FRESH·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC FRESH·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·
MARK · live
$0.200
24h Δ · live
2.23%
24h vol · live
$0.3M
PROVE · live 24h price
n=25 · μ=0.1979 · σ=0.0020 · range [0.1946, 0.2020] · R²=0.596▲ RISING +2.07%σ NORMAL 1.03%LAST 0.20030.20200.20010.19830.19650.1946μ = 0.1979max 0.2020min 0.1946dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.60μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxminlive endpoint
25 closes · last $0.20
Funding direction · live
Long fee 48.1%Short fee 51.9%SHORT FEE51.9%
Σ = 0.0%
Σ-sides total = 0.00% (100.00pp arb gap)
H(p) entropy = 0.999 / 1.00 bits (100%) · max uncertainty (~50/50)
Long fee
48.1%▬ +0.00pp
Short fee
51.9%▬ +0.00pp
1h funding 0.001250% · longs pay
Hourly contract volume · live
n=25 · Σ=1,428,370 · μ=57134.8 · σ=38129.3 · CV=0.67RISING +62% h/hcumulative energy ↗ · 50% by h=15042,00984,018126,027168,036μ = 57135168,03650%h1h5h9h13h17h21h25#1 peak#2-3> μactivequietμ linecum energy
peak 168036 contracts
Live numerics · pulse on poll
LIVE NUMERICS9 metrics·POLL 0
⏱snapshot age
2.9s
$mark $
$0.1999
$mid $
$0.1999
◉prev-day close
$0.1956
Δ24h Δ %
+2.232%
$24h vol $
$280.11k
◐open interest $
$278.73k
%funding (1h)
0.001250%
%funding (yr)
+10.95%/yr

§1 · 24h time-series

Close price · hourly
n=25 · μ=0.1979 · σ=0.0020 · range [0.1946, 0.2020] · R²=0.596▲ RISING +2.07%σ NORMAL 1.03%LAST 0.20030.20200.20010.19830.19650.1946μ = 0.1979max 0.2020min 0.1946dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.60μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
mark $0.1999 · 24h 2.23% · range $[0.1946, 0.2020]
OHLC candles · hourly
n=25 · up 12 · down 13 (48% up) · range [0.1940, 0.2033] · σ=0.0020 · CV=0.01 · bodyµ=51%BULLISH +1.94%CLOSE 0.2003 vs OPEN 0.1964 (+1.94%)&#9650; CLOSE 0.20030.20330.20100.19870.19630.1940μ close = 0.1979O0.196 H0.196 L0.194 C0.196 (-0.12%)O0.196 H0.196 L0.194 C0.196 (-0.12%)O0.196 H0.196 L0.194 C0.195 (-0.80%)O0.196 H0.196 L0.194 C0.195 (-0.80%)O0.195 H0.196 L0.194 C0.196 (+0.60%)O0.195 H0.196 L0.194 C0.196 (+0.60%)O0.196 H0.197 L0.195 C0.195 (-0.35%)O0.196 H0.197 L0.195 C0.195 (-0.35%)O0.195 H0.196 L0.194 C0.196 (+0.50%)O0.195 H0.196 L0.194 C0.196 (+0.50%)O0.196 H0.196 L0.195 C0.195 (-0.36%)O0.196 H0.196 L0.195 C0.195 (-0.36%)O0.195 H0.197 L0.195 C0.197 (+0.67%)O0.195 H0.197 L0.195 C0.197 (+0.67%)O0.197 H0.197 L0.195 C0.196 (-0.32%)O0.197 H0.197 L0.195 C0.196 (-0.32%)O0.197 H0.197 L0.196 C0.196 (-0.21%)O0.197 H0.197 L0.196 C0.196 (-0.21%)O0.196 H0.199 L0.196 C0.199 (+1.65%)O0.196 H0.199 L0.196 C0.199 (+1.65%)O0.198 H0.198 L0.196 C0.197 (-0.75%)O0.198 H0.198 L0.196 C0.197 (-0.75%)2.6%O0.197 H0.202 L0.196 C0.202 (+2.58%)O0.197 H0.202 L0.196 C0.202 (+2.58%)O0.202 H0.203 L0.198 C0.198 (-1.84%)O0.202 H0.203 L0.198 C0.198 (-1.84%)O0.198 H0.199 L0.197 C0.198 (+0.18%)O0.198 H0.199 L0.197 C0.198 (+0.18%)O0.198 H0.199 L0.196 C0.197 (-0.89%)O0.198 H0.199 L0.196 C0.197 (-0.89%)O0.197 H0.200 L0.196 C0.199 (+1.27%)O0.197 H0.200 L0.196 C0.199 (+1.27%)O0.199 H0.202 L0.198 C0.198 (-0.48%)O0.199 H0.202 L0.198 C0.198 (-0.48%)O0.198 H0.199 L0.197 C0.198 (-0.15%)O0.198 H0.199 L0.197 C0.198 (-0.15%)O0.198 H0.199 L0.197 C0.198 (+0.13%)O0.198 H0.199 L0.197 C0.198 (+0.13%)O0.198 H0.202 L0.198 C0.201 (+1.41%)O0.198 H0.202 L0.198 C0.201 (+1.41%)O0.201 H0.202 L0.199 C0.199 (-0.84%)O0.201 H0.202 L0.199 C0.199 (-0.84%)O0.200 H0.200 L0.198 C0.200 (+0.20%)O0.200 H0.200 L0.198 C0.200 (+0.20%)O0.200 H0.202 L0.199 C0.199 (-0.71%)O0.200 H0.202 L0.199 C0.199 (-0.71%)O0.199 H0.200 L0.199 C0.199 (+0.42%)O0.199 H0.200 L0.199 C0.199 (+0.42%)O0.200 H0.200 L0.200 C0.200 (+0.19%)O0.200 H0.200 L0.200 C0.200 (+0.19%)#1#5#9#13#17#21#25up bar (C≥O)down bar (C<O)MA(5) closeμ closedoji (~no body)biggest body
25 bars
Hourly volume (base units)
n=25 · Σ=1,428,370 · μ=57134.8 · σ=38129.3 · CV=0.67RISING +62% h/hcumulative energy &nearr; · 50% by h=15042,00984,018126,027168,036μ = 5713535,682 · 21.2% peak35,682 · 21.2% peak27,419 · 16.3% peak27,419 · 16.3% peak43,007 · 25.6% peak43,007 · 25.6% peak80,816 · 48.1% peak80,816 · 48.1% peak49,343 · 29.4% peak49,343 · 29.4% peak14,150 · 8.4% peak14,150 · 8.4% peak34,029 · 20.3% peak34,029 · 20.3% peak12,765 · 7.6% peak12,765 · 7.6% peak31,074 · 18.5% peak31,074 · 18.5% peak83,021 · 49.4% peak83,021 · 49.4% peak68,659 · 40.9% peak68,659 · 40.9% peak65,080 · 38.7% peak65,080 · 38.7% peak104,151 · 62.0% peak104,151 · 62.0% peak36,100 · 21.5% peak36,100 · 21.5% peak39,983 · 23.8% peak39,983 · 23.8% peak123,313 · 73.4% peak123,313 · 73.4% peak168,036168,036 · 100.0% peak168,036 · 100.0% peak21,285 · 12.7% peak21,285 · 12.7% peak26,217 · 15.6% peak26,217 · 15.6% peak71,232 · 42.4% peak71,232 · 42.4% peak70,324 · 41.9% peak70,324 · 41.9% peak46,866 · 27.9% peak46,866 · 27.9% peak68,386 · 40.7% peak68,386 · 40.7% peak100,285 · 59.7% peak100,285 · 59.7% peak7,147 · 4.3% peak7,147 · 4.3% peak50%#1#5#9#13#17#21#25#1 peak#2-3> μactivequietμ linecum energy
Σ vol 1428370 · peak 168036 · CV 0.67

§2 · Returns distribution (log-returns)

Histogram of rₜ = ln(pₜ/pₜ₋₁)
n=24 · 12 bins · μ=0.0007 · σ=0.0098 · skew=0.61 (right-skewed) · kurt=0.16 (mesokurtic)54310 2-156.22bpbin -156.22bp · n=2 · 40.0% peakbin -156.22bp · n=2 · 40.0% peak-119.03bp 4-81.83bpbin -81.83bp · n=4 · 80.0% peakbin -81.83bp · n=4 · 80.0% peak 3-44.64bpbin -44.64bp · n=3 · 60.0% peakbin -44.64bp · n=3 · 60.0% peak 5-7.44bpbin -7.44bp · n=5 · 100.0% peakbin -7.44bp · n=5 · 100.0% peak 429.76bpbin 29.76bp · n=4 · 80.0% peakbin 29.76bp · n=4 · 80.0% peak 266.95bpbin 66.95bp · n=2 · 40.0% peakbin 66.95bp · n=2 · 40.0% peak104.15bp 2141.34bpbin 141.34bp · n=2 · 40.0% peakbin 141.34bp · n=2 · 40.0% peak 1178.54bpbin 178.54bp · n=1 · 20.0% peakbin 178.54bp · n=1 · 20.0% peak215.73bp 1252.93bpbin 252.93bp · n=1 · 20.0% peakbin 252.93bp · n=1 · 20.0% peakμΔ < 0 · loss barsΔ ≈ 0 · flatΔ > 0 · gain barsN(μ,σ²) referenceμ line · ±σ band shaded
n=24 · positive 11 · negative 13
Q-Q plot · standardised rₜ vs N(0,1)
n=24 · skew=0.57 · kurt=0.40 · near 23 / mid 1 / far 0 · OLS slope=1.01 intercept=-0.00APPROXIMATELY NORMALMILDLY HEAVY UPPERLOWER TAIL NORMAL-3σ-3σ-2σ-2σ-1σ-1σ+0σ+0σ+1σ+1σ+2σ+2σ+3σ+3σsample ↓marginal: sample bars + theoretical N(0,1) curve →theoretical Φ⁻¹(p) →↑ sample z-quantile|Δ| < 0.3σ · on the line|Δ| < 1σ · moderate|Δ| ≥ 1σ · outliery = x refOLS fit

§3 · Spot quote

Mark price
$0.1999
Mid price
$0.1999
24h change
+2.23%
Mark–mid spread
0.00 bps
Prev-day close
$0.1956

§4 · Sample moments (prices)

Descriptive statistics · 5-number summary · shape diagnostics
SAMPLE MOMENTS · N=25PLATYKURTIC · THIN TAILS (G₂=-1.11)
μ MEAN0.1979$95% CI: [0.1971$, 0.1987$]
σ STD DEV0.0020$σ² = 0.042×10⁻⁴ · CV = 1.03%
med MEDIAN0.1984$Q₁ 0.1962$ · Q₃ 0.1994$
FIVE-NUMBER SUMMARY · BOX PLOTrange 0.0073$ · IQR 0.0032$ (1.349σ→0.0027$)
min 0.1946$Q₁ 0.1962$med 0.1984$Q₃ 0.1994$max 0.2020$μ
SKEWNESS · G₁0.132approximately symmetric
−3−10+1+3
EXCESS KURTOSIS · G₂-1.113platykurtic · thin tails
−30+2+4+6
μ ↔ medianμ < med · left-tailed|μ−med| / σ = 0.25
σ × 1.349 ↔ IQRconsistent with normalratio = 0.86
range ↔ σconcentrated (range < 4σ)range / σ = 3.60
μ = mean · σ = standard deviation · CV = coefficient of variation. Skew (G₁): >0 right-skewed. Kurt (G₂, excess): >0 leptokurtic. 95% CI = μ ± 1.96·SE.

§5 · Returns analytics (log-returns)

Risk-adjusted performance · log-returns
RETURNS · RISK-ADJUSTEDEXCEPTIONAL EDGE · SR=7.86
μᵣ MEAN / h+0.085346%drift is positive per h · |μ|/σ = 0.084
σᵣ STD / h1.016569%σ²ᵣ = 1.033×10⁻⁴ · CV = 11.91×
σ ANNUALISED95.15%/yrscaled by √8760 (hourly→yearly) · 1.017%/h base
RISK-ADJUSTED PERFORMANCEhigher = better edge per unit risk
SHARPE (annualised)7.86excellent · top-decile
-2-10+1+2+3+4
SORTINO (annualised)9.89strong downside-adjusted
-2-10+1+2+3+4
CALMAR (return / max-DD)100.00exceptional DD control
-20+2+4+6
RETURN-DISTRIBUTION SHAPE|skew| < 0.5 ≈ symmetric · |kurt| < 1 ≈ mesokurtic
SKEWNESS · G₁0.61right-skewed · heavy positive tail
-3-10+1+3
EXCESS KURTOSIS · G₂0.79mesokurtic · normal-like tails
-30+2+4+6
SORTINO vs SHARPEdownside vol < total vol · favourableSoR / SR = 1.26
CALMAR · DD CONTROLdrawdown control exceptionalCR = 100.00
EXPECTED EDGE+747.63%/yr driftμ × 8760 = annualised expectation
rₜ = ln(pₜ/pₜ₋₁). σ × √8760 = annualised. Sharpe = μ/σ scaled; Sortino uses downside-only vol; Calmar = annual return / max drawdown.

§6 · Risk metrics

Tail risk + drawdown · downside diagnostics
TAIL & DRAWDOWN RISKHIGH · 95% VaR 1.39%
VaR₉₅ (h)1.388%5% prob of larger adverse h move
VaR₉₉ (h)1.685%1% prob · extreme-tail threshold
ES₉₅ (CVaR)1.611%expected loss given 5% tail event
MAX DRAWDOWN2.62%3h from peak to trough
TAIL-RISK LADDER (h losses)larger negative = worse · markers show severity
0 · no lossVaR₉₅−1.388%VaR₉₉−1.685%ES₉₅−1.611%worst tail ←→ zero loss
MAX DRAWDOWN PROFILEmoderate drawdown · 3h duration
PEAK20.20$
−2.62% drawdown over 3h
19.67$TROUGH
ES / VaR · TAIL THICKNESSmild tail heaviness|ES₉₅| / |VaR₉₅| = 1.16× (normal ≈ 1.25)
VaR₉₉ / VaR₉₅ · CONCENTRATIONuniform tailratio = 1.21× (normal ≈ 1.41)
DRAWDOWN · CAPITAL DURATIONmoderate drawdownrecovery needed: +2.70% (compounding)
VaR = quantile loss · ES (CVaR) = expected loss conditional on tail · DD = peak-to-trough decline. Under normality ES₉₅/VaR₉₅ ≈ 1.25; ratio > 1.5 ⇒ fat-tail regime.

§7 · Technicals

RSI(14)
56.3 · neutral
Bollinger %B
0.748 · within band
Bollinger upper
$0.2021
Bollinger MA
$0.1985
Bollinger lower
$0.1949

§8 · Time-series structure

Regime & autocorrelation diagnostics
TIME-SERIES STRUCTUREREGIME: MEAN-REVERTING · ρ(1) -0.70 + ADF rejected
ρ(1) AUTOCORR-0.696negative · reversal
ρ(2) AUTOCORR+0.438lag-2 dependence detected
H · HURST EXPONENT0.808strongly persistent
OLS TREND · t-STAT+5.829significant @ α=0.05
HURST EXPONENT [0, 1]strongly persistent · H = 0.808
H = 0.808STRONGLY PERSISTENT
0
anti-persistent0.45
mean-reverting0.5
random walk0.55
persistent1
strongly trending
AUTOCORRELATION FUNCTION · ρ(k) for k=1..52 SIGNIFICANT LAGS · k=1,2
k=1 ★-0.696k=2+0.438k=3-0.368k=4+0.262k=5-0.1470+1−1+0.41−0.41+ momentum (ρ > +0.41)− reversal (ρ < −0.41)noise (within band)±2/√n threshold
OLS TREND · t-STAT · [-5, +5]SIGNIFICANT @ 1% (|t|=5.83)
−5 reject−1.960 retain H₀+1.96+5 reject
REGIME CLASSIFICATIONMEAN-REVERTING · ρ(1) -0.70 + ADF rejectedfrom Hurst + ρ(1) joint diagnosis
PREDICTABILITY · score 1.00very high · strong structure|ρ(1)| + 2·|H − 0.5| heuristic
TREND SIGNIFICANCESIGNIFICANT @ 1% (|t|=5.83)α=0.05 critical |t|=1.96 · α=0.01 |t|=2.58
ρ(k) = lag-k sample autocorrelation · H = R/S Hurst exponent · t = OLS-trend t-statistic. Significance bands at ±2/√n approximate the 95% white-noise envelope. α=0.05 critical |t|=1.96; α=0.01 |t|=2.58.

§9 · Microstructure

24h volume (USD)
$280.11k
Open interest (USD)
$278.73k
Vol / OI (turnover)
1.00x
1h funding
0.001250%
Funding (annualised)
+10.95%/yr

§10 · Position sizing

Continuous Kelly (μ/σ²)
8.259× leverage · optimal log-utility leverage
Half-Kelly
4.129× · industry-standard conservative
Quarter-Kelly
2.065×

§11 · Hourly return heatmap

24-hour signed Δln-r grid · green = up · red = down
HOURLY RETURN HEATMAP · n=24 bars · best 2.72% · worst -1.75% · typical |Δ| 0.76%MILD BULLISH +2.05%BEST+2.72%01hWORST-1.75%02hTYPICAL |Δ|0.76%mean absoluteCUMULATIVE+2.05%Σ signed ΔSTREAK↗ 2up-runASIA · 00-08 UTCμ -0.08% · Σ -0.66%EUROPE · 08-16 UTCμ +0.03% · Σ +0.26%US · 16-24 UTCμ +0.31% · Σ +2.46%CUMULATIVE Δ PATH · final +2.05%+2.90%-0.80%-0.80% · 15h-0.80% · 15h-0.80%15h0.56% · 16h0.56% · 16h0.56%16h-0.46% · 17h-0.46% · 17h-0.46%17h0.48% · 18h0.48% · 18h0.48%18h-0.34% · 19h-0.34% · 19h-0.34%19h0.82% · 20h0.82% · 20h0.82%20h-0.15% · 21h-0.15% · 21h-0.15%21h-0.11% · 22h-0.11% · 22h-0.11%22h1.66% · 23h1.66% · 23h1.66%23h-1.47% · 00h-1.47% · 00h-1.47%00h2.72% · 01h2.72% · 01h2.72%01h★ BEST-1.75% · 02h-1.75% · 02h-1.75%02h▼ WORST-0.02% · 03h-0.02% · 03h-0.02%03h-0.90% · 04h-0.90% · 04h-0.90%04h1.31% · 05h1.31% · 05h1.31%05h-0.42% · 06h-0.42% · 06h-0.42%06h-0.13% · 07h-0.13% · 07h-0.13%07h0.11% · 08h0.11% · 08h0.11%08h1.42% · 09h1.42% · 09h1.42%09h-0.90% · 10h-0.90% · 10h-0.90%10h0.42% · 11h0.42% · 11h0.42%11h-0.66% · 12h-0.66% · 12h-0.66%12h0.28% · 13h0.28% · 13h0.28%13h0.39% · 14h0.39% · 14h0.39%14hTIME PATTERNUS-led (+2.46%)RUNSup max 2 · down max 3BREADTH46% up · 54% down
11 up bars · 13 down · best 2.72% · worst -1.75% · typical |Δ| 0.761%

§12 · Equity curve & underwater drawdown

Cumulative compounded return + running peak-to-trough
EQUITY & DRAWDOWN ANALYSIS · n=25 barsPROFITABLE +1.95%FINAL+1.95%MAX DD-2.64%RECOVERYONGOING · 13 barsMAX RUN-UP+2.87%UNDERWATER21/25 (84%)STREAK↗ 2EQUITY CURVE · end 1.0195 · peak 1.0287 · range [0.9920, 1.0287]1.02870.9920break-even = 1★ PEAK 1.0287UNDERWATER DRAWDOWN · max -2.64% · moderate0%-2.64%▼ TROUGH -2.64%TOP DRAWDOWN PERIODS · 4 total#1 -2.64%bar 13-25 · 13 bars · ONGOING#2 -1.47%bar 11-11 · 1 bars · recovered#3 -0.80%bar 2-6 · 5 bars · recoveredDD SEVERITYmoderate (max -2.64%)RECOVERYongoing · 13 barsTIME UNDER WATER84% of session · 21/25 bars
final equity 1.0195 (1.95%) · max DD -2.64% · time-under-water 21/25 bars

§13 · Rolling-window statistics (w = 6 bars)

Rolling annualised Sharpe ratio · green positive · red negative
n=19 · +16 / −3 (84% positive) · μ=11.48 · σ=16.20PROFITABLE STRATEGYLAST 17.57 (+0.38σ vs μ)48.4624.230.00-24.23-48.46μ = 11.486.036.0326.4426.447.337.3348.4648.465.885.8836.4036.408.008.009.209.202.082.08-0.99-0.999.129.12-29.24-29.24-0.96-0.9623.0323.0322.9722.979.649.644.734.7312.4812.4817.5717.57v > 0 · positivev < 0 · negativeμ mean lineμ ± σ bandlatest bar (outlined)
latest 17.568 · range [-29.24, 48.46] · μ 11.482 · positive Sharpe = excess-return-per-risk earned by buying-and-holding through this window
Rolling annualised volatility (%)
n=19 · μ=101.2918 · σ=41.9670 · range [46.7580, 168.1912] · R²=0.000▲ RISING +27.19%σ EXTREME 41.43%LAST 78.3885168.1912137.8329107.474677.116346.7580μ = 101.2918max 168.1912min 46.7580dataMA(3)OLS R²=0.00μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
latest 78.39% · range [46.76%, 168.19%] · μ 101.29% · σ̂ scaled to annualised (×√8760)
Rolling lag-1 autocorrelation ρ(1)
n=19 · +0 / −19 (0% positive) · μ=-0.572 · σ=0.138MEAN-REVERSIONLAST -0.538 (+0.25σ vs μ)0.7990.3990.000-0.399-0.799μ = -0.572-0.638-0.638-0.799-0.799-0.641-0.641-0.336-0.336-0.553-0.553-0.638-0.638-0.773-0.773-0.762-0.762-0.690-0.690-0.654-0.654-0.481-0.481-0.337-0.337-0.614-0.614-0.404-0.404-0.432-0.432-0.474-0.474-0.530-0.530-0.579-0.579-0.538-0.538v > 0 · positivev < 0 · negativeμ mean lineμ ± σ bandlatest bar (outlined)
latest -0.538 · |ρ| > 0.3 ⇒ regime with persistence (ρ > 0) or reversal (ρ < 0) · |ρ| ≤ 0.1 = consistent with random walk

§14 · Hypothesis tests (α = 0.05)

Formal inference at 5% significance
4 of 6 REJECT · mixed evidence4 reject·2 pass·α = 0.05
𝒩

Jarque-Bera

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Δln-r ~ Normal(μ, σ²)

STATISTIC
2.1184
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.3467
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainednormality not rejected
ρ

Ljung-Box(h=5)

REJECT H₀***

H₀: No serial autocorrelation up to lag 5

STATISTIC
25.4691
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.0001
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p < α · rejection zoneserial dependence detected
Ψ

Dickey-Fuller (τ_μ)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: p has a unit root (non-stationary)

STATISTIC
-2.5962
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.0955
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedrandom-walk behaviour (crit ≈ -2.86)
±

Wald-Wolfowitz runs

REJECT H₀*

H₀: Sign sequence of Δ is random

STATISTIC
2.1374
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.0326
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p < α · rejection zonenon-random sign pattern (18 runs)
χ

KPSS (μ stationarity)

REJECT H₀**

H₀: p IS level-stationary

STATISTIC
0.7561
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.0091
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p < α · rejection zonenon-stationary (crit 0.463)
χ

Variance ratio q=3

REJECT H₀*

H₀: Δln-r is a random walk · VR = 1

STATISTIC
-2.0438
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.0410
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p < α · rejection zoneVR 0.378 → mean-reverting
Each row states an explicit null H₀, the test statistic, an approximated p-value, and the decision. REJECT means evidence against H₀. KPSS complements ADF (rejecting both ⇒ ambiguous; rejecting one ⇒ clean verdict).

§15 · Spectral analysis (DFT periodogram)

Power spectrum of Δln-r · ‖X̂(k)‖²/n
n=12 bins · noise floor μ=1.16e-4 · top T=2.18h (29.8%) · top-3 cover 76.4%BROADBAND · 3 CYCLEScumulative energy ↗ (3 bins above 2× noise)4.1e-43.1e-42.1e-41.0e-40.0e+0μ noise floor2× noise (significance)period 24.0 · power 5.09e-6 · 0.4% energyperiod 24.0 · power 5.09e-6 · 0.4% energyperiod 12.0 · power 2.38e-5 · 1.7% energyperiod 12.0 · power 2.38e-5 · 1.7% energyperiod 8.0 · power 2.01e-5 · 1.5% energyperiod 8.0 · power 2.01e-5 · 1.5% energyperiod 6.0 · power 5.56e-6 · 0.4% energyperiod 6.0 · power 5.56e-6 · 0.4% energyperiod 4.8 · power 3.81e-5 · 2.7% energyperiod 4.8 · power 3.81e-5 · 2.7% energyperiod 4.0 · power 8.05e-5 · 5.8% energyperiod 4.0 · power 8.05e-5 · 5.8% energyperiod 3.4 · power 3.93e-5 · 2.8% energyperiod 3.4 · power 3.93e-5 · 2.8% energyperiod 3.0 · power 5.53e-5 · 4.0% energyperiod 3.0 · power 5.53e-5 · 4.0% energyperiod 2.7 · power 5.95e-5 · 4.3% energyperiod 2.7 · power 5.95e-5 · 4.3% energyperiod 2.4 · power 2.50e-4 · 18.0% energyperiod 2.4 · power 2.50e-4 · 18.0% energyperiod 2.2 · power 4.13e-4 · 29.8% energyperiod 2.2 · power 4.13e-4 · 29.8% energyperiod 2.0 · power 3.96e-4 · 28.6% energyperiod 2.0 · power 3.96e-4 · 28.6% energy50% by T=2.2h#1 dominantT=2.18h#2T=2.00h#3T=2.40hT=2hT=3hT=4hT=6hT=8hT=12hT=16hT=24h← shorter cycle (high freq · Nyquist=½) · period T (bars per cycle) · longer cycle (low freq · 1/n) →#1 dominant#2 peak#3 peak> 2× noisenoiseμ floor2μ sig.cum energy
dominant period ≈ 2.18h (freq 0.458) · concentrates 29.8% of total energy · Σ|X̂|²/n = 1.386e-3

▸ Depth section using sovereign-store price series (5000 bars · effective 5257847 bars/year) — annualisation reflects native polling cadence, not upstream timeframes.

§16 · NOSTRADAMUS continuous quant — perp leverage & bootstrap MC

Continuous-price extension of the prediction-market quant module. Kelly growth on observed returns (Merton μ/σ² parametric vs argmax empirical), Monte-Carlo equity fan bootstrapped from the historical return distribution at quarter-Kelly leverage, and an annualized return decomposition. Sweep parameters in the simulator.

§17 · Continuous Kelly

Continuous-Kelly growth · g(f) = E[ln(1 + f·r)]
NO LONG EDGE · μ -0.000% per barparametric μ/σ² short edge (μ<0) · μ -0.000% · σ 0.03%
μ per barmean
-0.000%
σ per barvol
0.03%
Empirical f★argmax g(f)
0.00×
from observed distribution
Parametric f★μ/σ²
-12.58×
Merton continuous-time
Half-Kelly½ f★
0.00×
~⅔ of full growth, half the variance
Quarter-Kelly¼ f★
0.00×
industry default — survives model error
-0.00%0.02%0.05%0.07%0.10%0.0×1.6×3.2×4.8×6.4×8.0×leverage fraction fexpected log-growth per bar
g(f) empiricalf★ argmaxparametric f★
Maximum expected log-growth from leveraging the historical return distribution. Empirical f★ argmaxes the sample expectation; parametric f★ = μ/σ² is Merton's continuous-time optimum.

§18 · MC equity fan

Bootstrapped equity fan at 0.10× leverage
Median CAGR/bar -0.000% · annualized Sharpe -17.71400 paths × 720 bars · leverage 0.10× · bootstrap from 4999 observed returns
Sharpe / barμ/σ
-0.008
annualized -17.71
μ per barafter L
-0.000%
σ per barafter L
0.00%
VaR 95%5%
0.00%
per-bar worst-case
CVaR 95%ES
0.01%
mean tail loss
Max DD (median)MDD
-0.0%
0.95×0.97×0.99×1.01×1.03×1.05×0120240360480600720startbar #equity multiple
median25/75 band5/95 band
Median path with 25/75 and 5/95 percentile bands across 400 simulated careers. Bars resample with replacement from the observed return distribution — preserves fat tails the parametric model misses.

§19 · Annualized breakdown

Annualized return components
APR -755% · APY -100% · Sharpe -9.74σ ann 77% · Sortino -6.83 · n 4999
-1169%-917%-664%-412%-159%93%-754.8%APR (simple)-100.0%APY (compound)77.5%Ann. vol σ-974.3%Sharpe (ann)-683.0%Sortino (ann)
Simple APR vs compounded APY · annualized volatility · risk-adjusted Sharpe and Sortino. All scaled by √(periods/yr).

§20 · GARCH(1,1) volatility band

GARCH(1,1) · conditional vol envelope (±2σ)
GARCH persistence α+β = 0.980· σ̂ₜ = 1.000% · long-run σ = 2.236%
0.1890.1940.1980.2020.2060.210t-4999t-4166t-3333t-2500t-1666t-833t-0

Persistence near 1 ⇒ vol clusters strongly (slow mean reversion). Long-run σ is the unconditional target the conditional vol orbits. The ±2σ band reflects time-varying scale, unlike a flat-vol band.

Time-varying volatility band fitted to the price series. Persistence α+β > 0.98 means vol shocks decay slowly — recent moves stay relevant.

§∞ · Provenance & attestation

Upstream
api.hyperliquid.xyz
Snapshot fetched
2026-06-14 14:29:32 UTC
Snapshot age
2.9s
History points
25 hourly closes
Page rendered
2026-06-14 14:29:35 UTC
Storage policy
no persistence — fetched on every request
SHA-256 attestation
d8c8e5921b976709d2299a06e967c9524f5f1142d7ac66055b1911d42bf7c788 · deterministic hash of the source snapshot — proves this page was rendered from this exact data
Open data licence
CC0 / public domain · free to mirror, syndicate, analyse

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Also see: /arb opportunities · RSS feed

Market depth

▸ live order book · Hyperliquid perp
Depth within 1bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Depth within 5bp
$1.35K
bid $653 · ask $695
Depth within 10bp
$5.95K
bid $3.76K · ask $2.19K
Depth within 50bp
$37.10K
bid $18.43K · ask $18.67K
Mid price
0.199915
(best bid + best ask) / 2
Spread
5.5bp
(bestAsk − bestBid) / mid
Imbalance (whole book)
-0.059
ask-heavy
Imbalance (top-5)
+0.011
bid-heavy top-of-book

Slippage scenarios

▸ live book walk · Hyperliquid perp

Simulating a market order at three notionals against the live book. Slippage = avg execution price vs. mid, in basis points. Worst fill = price of the deepest level touched. Live JSON: /api/asset/hl-PROVE/slippage?size=10000&side=buy

SideNotionalAvg fillSlippageWorst fillLevelsStatus
BUY$1.00K0.2000064.53bp0.2000704FILLED
BUY$10.00K0.20020814.66bp0.2004209FILLED
BUY$100.00K0.20048028.24bp0.20118020PARTIAL
SELL$1.00K0.1998304.27bp0.1997903FILLED
SELL$10.00K0.19966212.64bp0.19951011FILLED
SELL$100.00K0.19952019.77bp0.19913020PARTIAL

Funding carry

▸ LONGS PAY · shorts receive
Hourly funding
+1.250e-5
0.00125% / hr
Annualised APR
10.958%
hourly · 24 · 365.25
Long: days to 1% carry
33.3d
longs pay
Short: days to 1% carry
33.3d
shorts receive
SideDirectionAnnualised carryDays → 1%Days → 10%
LONGPAY-10.958%33.3d333.3d
SHORTRECEIVE10.958%33.3d333.3d

/api/asset/hl-PROVE/carry · same metrics, JSON

Volume profile

▸ real volume · Hyperliquid candlesstep $ 1 · 25 records
Price binBarsVolumeDistribution
$0.000000–$1.0000★25$1.43M

★ POC = Point of Control (highest-volume bin). Live JSON: /api/asset/hl-PROVE/volprofile?priceStep=1

Order flow

▸ ASK-LEAN · -0.067 · Hyperliquid candles
Bars (buy / sell)
11 / 13
1 unclassified
Buy weight
$649.54K
real volume
Sell weight
$743.15K
real volume
Net delta
$93.61K
sellers net
Imbalance
-6.72%
(buy − sell) / (buy + sell)
Toxicity (VPIN)
6.7%
two-sided / balanced
Impact (|Δp|/vol)
—
needs real volume

Sparkline = cumulative delta over the 25-record window./api/asset/hl-PROVE/flow?rollingWindow=30

Cascade clusters

▸ DOWN · 7 found · deepest 2.62% · Hyperliquid candles

Price-only proxy for forced-unwind clusters. No exchange liquidation feed is wired — read each row as a candidate event, not a confirmed liquidation.

#WindowDurationPeak → TroughDrawdownBars
#12026-06-14 02:00:00Z2.0h0.201960→0.1966602.624%3
#22026-06-14 00:00:00Z0ms0.199470→0.1965501.464%1
#32026-06-14 12:00:00Z0ms0.201200→0.1989101.138%1

/api/asset/hl-PROVE/cascades?windowMs=10800000&minDrawdownPct=0.005 · full list + parameters in JSON

Risk metrics

▸ sovereign store · 5,000 barsperiods/year ≈ 5.26M
Realized vol (annualised)
77.47%
σ per bar = 0.000338
Mean return (annualised)
-754.79%
μ per bar = -0.000001
Sharpe (rf=0)
-9.74
annualised; risk-free assumed zero
Max drawdown
2.30%
peak 0.20 → trough 0.20 over 943 bars

/api/asset/hl-PROVE/risk · same metrics, JSON