HYPERLIQUID · PERPETUAL FUTURES

ONDO

ONDO-USD perpetual · 24/7 trading on Hyperliquid

▸ Advanced metrics · M2M bundle

hyperliquid · perp-ondo · fresh · feed 2s old
24h sparkline · 60 pts▼ -7.18%
realized vol (ann.)
69.58%
max drawdown
3.93%
sharpe
-127.71
ulcer index
1.98%
RMS drawdown
pain index
1.63%
mean drawdown
mod. VaR 95%
0.06%
Cornish-Fisher
martin ratio
-4487.60
ret / ulcer
CDaR 95%
3.44%
cond. drawdown
gain/pain
0.83
Σgain / Σ|loss|
sterling
-2586.32
ret / CDaR
omega (θ=0)
0.83
upside/downside
roll spread
0.0 bps
implied (price-only)
bars used
2000
store
spread
—
24h Δ
-7.18%
flow lean
—
carry
shorts_pay
-3.79%
signalNEUTRALconfidence 33%
  • 24h change -7.18%
  • funding: shorts pay — perp longs get paid to wait
  • mark cheap vs HL oracle by 10.1bps — long bias
Same bundle via M2M API: /api/m2m/hl-ONDO/bundle · venue execution: hyperliquid →
LIVEPOLL0SRCFRESH1.7s⏱--:--:-- UTC8NEXT8.0sUP0s--:--HIST0/30
▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC FRESH·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC FRESH·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·
MARK · live
$0.345
24h Δ · live
-7.18%
24h vol · live
$5.9M
ONDO · live 24h price
n=25 · μ=0.3618 · σ=0.0065 · range [0.3453, 0.3747] · R²=0.845▼ FALLING -7.85%σ NORMAL 1.81%LAST 0.34530.37470.36740.36000.35270.3453μ = 0.3618max 0.3747min 0.3453dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.84μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxminlive endpoint
25 closes · last $0.35
Funding direction · live
Long fee 44.8%Short fee 55.2%SHORT FEE55.2%
Σ = 0.0%
Σ-sides total = 0.00% (100.00pp arb gap)
H(p) entropy = 0.992 / 1.00 bits (99%) · max uncertainty (~50/50)
Long fee
44.8%▬ +0.00pp
Short fee
55.2%▬ +0.00pp
1h funding -0.000433% · shorts pay
Hourly contract volume · live
n=25 · Σ=16,362,288 · μ=654491.5 · σ=473395.3 · CV=0.72STEADY FLOWcumulative energy ↗ · 50% by h=120494,741989,4811,484,2221,978,962μ = 6544921,978,96250%h1h5h9h13h17h21h25#1 peak#2-3> μactivequietμ linecum energy
peak 1978962 contracts
Live numerics · pulse on poll
LIVE NUMERICS9 metrics·POLL 0
⏱snapshot age
1.7s
$mark $
$0.3453
$mid $
$0.3452
◉prev-day close
$0.3719
Δ24h Δ %
-7.176%
$24h vol $
$5.89M
◐open interest $
$8.74M
%funding (1h)
-0.000433%
%funding (yr)
-3.79%/yr

§1 · 24h time-series

Close price · hourly
n=25 · μ=0.3618 · σ=0.0065 · range [0.3453, 0.3747] · R²=0.845▼ FALLING -7.85%σ NORMAL 1.81%LAST 0.34530.37470.36740.36000.35270.3453μ = 0.3618max 0.3747min 0.3453dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.84μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
mark $0.3453 · 24h -7.18% · range $[0.3453, 0.3747]
OHLC candles · hourly
n=25 · up 8 · down 17 (32% up) · range [0.3445, 0.3752] · σ=0.0065 · CV=0.02 · bodyµ=44%STRONG BEARISH -7.00%CLOSE 0.3453 vs OPEN 0.3713 (-7.00%)&#9660; CLOSE 0.34530.37520.36750.35990.35220.3445μ close = 0.3618O0.371 H0.375 L0.370 C0.375 (+0.93%)O0.371 H0.375 L0.370 C0.375 (+0.93%)O0.375 H0.375 L0.371 C0.372 (-0.88%)O0.375 H0.375 L0.371 C0.372 (-0.88%)O0.372 H0.372 L0.365 C0.368 (-1.19%)O0.372 H0.372 L0.365 C0.368 (-1.19%)O0.367 H0.371 L0.365 C0.366 (-0.36%)O0.367 H0.371 L0.365 C0.366 (-0.36%)O0.366 H0.368 L0.365 C0.366 (-0.06%)O0.366 H0.368 L0.365 C0.366 (-0.06%)O0.366 H0.369 L0.365 C0.366 (-0.10%)O0.366 H0.369 L0.365 C0.366 (-0.10%)O0.366 H0.366 L0.363 C0.364 (-0.53%)O0.366 H0.366 L0.363 C0.364 (-0.53%)1.2%O0.364 H0.371 L0.362 C0.368 (+1.24%)O0.364 H0.371 L0.362 C0.368 (+1.24%)O0.369 H0.370 L0.365 C0.366 (-0.93%)O0.369 H0.370 L0.365 C0.366 (-0.93%)O0.365 H0.367 L0.363 C0.365 (-0.15%)O0.365 H0.367 L0.363 C0.365 (-0.15%)O0.364 H0.365 L0.362 C0.363 (-0.40%)O0.364 H0.365 L0.362 C0.363 (-0.40%)O0.363 H0.366 L0.361 C0.364 (+0.27%)O0.363 H0.366 L0.361 C0.364 (+0.27%)O0.363 H0.366 L0.363 C0.364 (+0.01%)O0.363 H0.366 L0.363 C0.364 (+0.01%)O0.363 H0.364 L0.360 C0.362 (-0.38%)O0.363 H0.364 L0.360 C0.362 (-0.38%)O0.362 H0.362 L0.357 C0.358 (-1.06%)O0.362 H0.362 L0.357 C0.358 (-1.06%)O0.358 H0.361 L0.357 C0.360 (+0.45%)O0.358 H0.361 L0.357 C0.360 (+0.45%)O0.360 H0.363 L0.358 C0.359 (-0.26%)O0.360 H0.363 L0.358 C0.359 (-0.26%)O0.359 H0.361 L0.357 C0.359 (+0.09%)O0.359 H0.361 L0.357 C0.359 (+0.09%)O0.358 H0.361 L0.358 C0.359 (+0.18%)O0.358 H0.361 L0.358 C0.359 (+0.18%)O0.359 H0.362 L0.357 C0.361 (+0.44%)O0.359 H0.362 L0.357 C0.361 (+0.44%)O0.361 H0.362 L0.358 C0.358 (-0.83%)O0.361 H0.362 L0.358 C0.358 (-0.83%)O0.357 H0.359 L0.356 C0.356 (-0.25%)O0.357 H0.359 L0.356 C0.356 (-0.25%)O0.356 H0.357 L0.352 C0.353 (-0.89%)O0.356 H0.357 L0.352 C0.353 (-0.89%)O0.353 H0.354 L0.348 C0.349 (-1.24%)O0.353 H0.354 L0.348 C0.349 (-1.24%)O0.349 H0.349 L0.345 C0.345 (-1.10%)O0.349 H0.349 L0.345 C0.345 (-1.10%)#1#5#9#13#17#21#25up bar (C≥O)down bar (C<O)MA(5) closeμ closedoji (~no body)biggest body
25 bars
Hourly volume (base units)
n=25 · Σ=16,362,288 · μ=654491.5 · σ=473395.3 · CV=0.72STEADY FLOWcumulative energy &nearr; · 50% by h=120494,741989,4811,484,2221,978,962μ = 654492555,674 · 28.1% peak555,674 · 28.1% peak653,758 · 33.0% peak653,758 · 33.0% peak1,335,968 · 67.5% peak1,335,968 · 67.5% peak1,031,098 · 52.1% peak1,031,098 · 52.1% peak50,423 · 2.5% peak50,423 · 2.5% peak878,802 · 44.4% peak878,802 · 44.4% peak926,505 · 46.8% peak926,505 · 46.8% peak1,066,901 · 53.9% peak1,066,901 · 53.9% peak169,511 · 8.6% peak169,511 · 8.6% peak379,512 · 19.2% peak379,512 · 19.2% peak766,489 · 38.7% peak766,489 · 38.7% peak1,385,071 · 70.0% peak1,385,071 · 70.0% peak160,400 · 8.1% peak160,400 · 8.1% peak888,974 · 44.9% peak888,974 · 44.9% peak215,998 · 10.9% peak215,998 · 10.9% peak94,787 · 4.8% peak94,787 · 4.8% peak286,039 · 14.5% peak286,039 · 14.5% peak394,600 · 19.9% peak394,600 · 19.9% peak281,303 · 14.2% peak281,303 · 14.2% peak813,835 · 41.1% peak813,835 · 41.1% peak122,352 · 6.2% peak122,352 · 6.2% peak595,603 · 30.1% peak595,603 · 30.1% peak537,628 · 27.2% peak537,628 · 27.2% peak792,095 · 40.0% peak792,095 · 40.0% peak1,978,9621,978,962 · 100.0% peak1,978,962 · 100.0% peak50%#1#5#9#13#17#21#25#1 peak#2-3> μactivequietμ linecum energy
Σ vol 16362288 · peak 1978962 · CV 0.72

§2 · Returns distribution (log-returns)

Histogram of rₜ = ln(pₜ/pₜ₋₁)
n=24 · 12 bins · μ=-0.0033 · σ=0.0059 · skew=0.60 (right-skewed) · kurt=-0.03 (mesokurtic)43210 4-112.23bpbin -112.23bp · n=4 · 100.0% peakbin -112.23bp · n=4 · 100.0% peak 2-91.21bpbin -91.21bp · n=2 · 50.0% peakbin -91.21bp · n=2 · 50.0% peak 2-70.19bpbin -70.19bp · n=2 · 50.0% peakbin -70.19bp · n=2 · 50.0% peak 4-49.17bpbin -49.17bp · n=4 · 100.0% peakbin -49.17bp · n=4 · 100.0% peak 3-28.15bpbin -28.15bp · n=3 · 75.0% peakbin -28.15bp · n=3 · 75.0% peak 4-7.13bpbin -7.13bp · n=4 · 100.0% peakbin -7.13bp · n=4 · 100.0% peak 113.88bpbin 13.88bp · n=1 · 25.0% peakbin 13.88bp · n=1 · 25.0% peak 134.90bpbin 34.90bp · n=1 · 25.0% peakbin 34.90bp · n=1 · 25.0% peak 255.92bpbin 55.92bp · n=2 · 50.0% peakbin 55.92bp · n=2 · 50.0% peak76.94bp97.96bp 1118.98bpbin 118.98bp · n=1 · 25.0% peakbin 118.98bp · n=1 · 25.0% peakμΔ < 0 · loss barsΔ ≈ 0 · flatΔ > 0 · gain barsN(μ,σ²) referenceμ line · ±σ band shaded
n=24 · positive 6 · negative 18
Q-Q plot · standardised rₜ vs N(0,1)
n=24 · skew=0.68 · kurt=0.41 · near 22 / mid 2 / far 0 · OLS slope=1.00 intercept=-0.00APPROXIMATELY NORMALMILDLY HEAVY UPPERLOWER TAIL NORMAL-3σ-3σ-2σ-2σ-1σ-1σ+0σ+0σ+1σ+1σ+2σ+2σ+3σ+3σsample ↓marginal: sample bars + theoretical N(0,1) curve →theoretical Φ⁻¹(p) →↑ sample z-quantile|Δ| < 0.3σ · on the line|Δ| < 1σ · moderate|Δ| ≥ 1σ · outliery = x refOLS fit

§3 · Spot quote

Mark price
$0.3453
Mid price
$0.3452
24h change
-7.18%
Mark–mid spread
1.16 bps
Prev-day close
$0.3719

§4 · Sample moments (prices)

Descriptive statistics · 5-number summary · shape diagnostics
SAMPLE MOMENTS · N=25APPROXIMATELY NORMAL · WELL-BEHAVED
μ MEAN0.3618$95% CI: [0.3592$, 0.3643$]
σ STD DEV0.0065$σ² = 0.428×10⁻⁴ · CV = 1.81%
med MEDIAN0.3630$Q₁ 0.3588$ · Q₃ 0.3657$
FIVE-NUMBER SUMMARY · BOX PLOTrange 0.0294$ · IQR 0.0069$ (1.349σ→0.0088$)
min 0.3453$Q₁ 0.3588$med 0.3630$Q₃ 0.3657$max 0.3747$μ
SKEWNESS · G₁-0.500approximately symmetric
−3−10+1+3
EXCESS KURTOSIS · G₂0.268mesokurtic · normal-like
−30+2+4+6
μ ↔ medianμ < med · left-tailed|μ−med| / σ = 0.19
σ × 1.349 ↔ IQRdiverges from normalratio = 1.29
range ↔ σwide tails (range > 4σ)range / σ = 4.50
μ = mean · σ = standard deviation · CV = coefficient of variation. Skew (G₁): >0 right-skewed. Kurt (G₂, excess): >0 leptokurtic. 95% CI = μ ± 1.96·SE.

§5 · Returns analytics (log-returns)

Risk-adjusted performance · log-returns
RETURNS · RISK-ADJUSTEDUNPROFITABLE · SR=-52.79
μᵣ MEAN / h-0.340689%drift is negative per h · |μ|/σ = 0.564
σᵣ STD / h0.604067%σ²ᵣ = 0.365×10⁻⁴ · CV = 1.77×
σ ANNUALISED56.54%/yrscaled by √8760 (hourly→yearly) · 0.604%/h base
RISK-ADJUSTED PERFORMANCEhigher = better edge per unit risk
SHARPE (annualised)-52.79negative edge
-2-10+1+2+3+4
SORTINO (annualised)-45.14downside drag
-2-10+1+2+3+4
CALMAR (return / max-DD)-100.00drawdown overwhelms returns
-20+2+4+6
RETURN-DISTRIBUTION SHAPE|skew| < 0.5 ≈ symmetric · |kurt| < 1 ≈ mesokurtic
SKEWNESS · G₁0.73right-skewed · heavy positive tail
-3-10+1+3
EXCESS KURTOSIS · G₂0.81mesokurtic · normal-like tails
-30+2+4+6
SORTINO vs SHARPEdownside vol < total vol · favourableSoR / SR = 0.86
CALMAR · DD CONTROLdrawdown > returns · adverseCR = -100.00
EXPECTED EDGE-2984.44%/yr driftμ × 8760 = annualised expectation
rₜ = ln(pₜ/pₜ₋₁). σ × √8760 = annualised. Sharpe = μ/σ scaled; Sortino uses downside-only vol; Calmar = annual return / max drawdown.

§6 · Risk metrics

Tail risk + drawdown · downside diagnostics
TAIL & DRAWDOWN RISKHIGH · 95% VaR 1.13%
VaR₉₅ (h)1.125%5% prob of larger adverse h move
VaR₉₉ (h)1.206%1% prob · extreme-tail threshold
ES₉₅ (CVaR)1.182%expected loss given 5% tail event
MAX DRAWDOWN7.85%24h from peak to trough
TAIL-RISK LADDER (h losses)larger negative = worse · markers show severity
0 · no lossVaR₉₅−1.125%VaR₉₉−1.206%ES₉₅−1.182%worst tail ←→ zero loss
MAX DRAWDOWN PROFILEsignificant drawdown · 24h duration
PEAK37.47$
−7.85% drawdown over 24h
34.53$TROUGH
ES / VaR · TAIL THICKNESSthin tails · ES ≈ VaR|ES₉₅| / |VaR₉₅| = 1.05× (normal ≈ 1.25)
VaR₉₉ / VaR₉₅ · CONCENTRATIONuniform tailratio = 1.07× (normal ≈ 1.41)
DRAWDOWN · CAPITAL DURATIONsignificant drawdownrecovery needed: +8.52% (compounding)
VaR = quantile loss · ES (CVaR) = expected loss conditional on tail · DD = peak-to-trough decline. Under normality ES₉₅/VaR₉₅ ≈ 1.25; ratio > 1.5 ⇒ fat-tail regime.

§7 · Technicals

RSI(14)
16.5 · oversold
Bollinger %B
-0.140 · below lower band
Bollinger upper
$0.3713
Bollinger MA
$0.3599
Bollinger lower
$0.3485

§8 · Time-series structure

Regime & autocorrelation diagnostics
TIME-SERIES STRUCTUREREGIME: INDETERMINATE · weak signal at n=24
ρ(1) AUTOCORR-0.009within white-noise band
ρ(2) AUTOCORR+0.185lag-2 not significant
H · HURST EXPONENT0.897strongly persistent
OLS TREND · t-STAT-11.176significant @ α=0.05
HURST EXPONENT [0, 1]strongly persistent · H = 0.897
H = 0.897STRONGLY PERSISTENT
0
anti-persistent0.45
mean-reverting0.5
random walk0.55
persistent1
strongly trending
AUTOCORRELATION FUNCTION · ρ(k) for k=1..5WHITE NOISE · no significant lags
k=1-0.009k=2+0.185k=3-0.114k=4+0.142k=5-0.3890+1−1+0.41−0.41+ momentum (ρ > +0.41)− reversal (ρ < −0.41)noise (within band)±2/√n threshold
OLS TREND · t-STAT · [-5, +5]SIGNIFICANT @ 1% (|t|=11.18)
−5 reject−1.960 retain H₀+1.96+5 reject
REGIME CLASSIFICATIONINDETERMINATE · weak signal at n=24from Hurst + ρ(1) joint diagnosis
PREDICTABILITY · score 0.80very high · strong structure|ρ(1)| + 2·|H − 0.5| heuristic
TREND SIGNIFICANCESIGNIFICANT @ 1% (|t|=11.18)α=0.05 critical |t|=1.96 · α=0.01 |t|=2.58
ρ(k) = lag-k sample autocorrelation · H = R/S Hurst exponent · t = OLS-trend t-statistic. Significance bands at ±2/√n approximate the 95% white-noise envelope. α=0.05 critical |t|=1.96; α=0.01 |t|=2.58.

§9 · Microstructure

24h volume (USD)
$5.89M
Open interest (USD)
$8.74M
Vol / OI (turnover)
0.67x
1h funding
-0.000433%
Funding (annualised)
-3.79%/yr

§10 · Position sizing

Continuous Kelly (μ/σ²)
-10.000× leverage · optimal log-utility leverage
Half-Kelly
-5.000× · industry-standard conservative
Quarter-Kelly
-2.500×

§11 · Hourly return heatmap

24-hour signed Δln-r grid · green = up · red = down
HOURLY RETURN HEATMAP · n=24 bars · best 1.29% · worst -1.23% · typical |Δ| 0.56%BEARISH SESSION -8.18%BEST+1.29%21hWORST-1.23%13hTYPICAL |Δ|0.56%mean absoluteCUMULATIVE-8.18%Σ signed ΔSTREAK↘ 5down-runASIA · 00-08 UTCμ -0.21% · Σ -1.65%EUROPE · 08-16 UTCμ -0.58% · Σ -4.64%US · 16-24 UTCμ -0.24% · Σ -1.89%CUMULATIVE Δ PATH · final -8.18%+0.00%-8.18%-0.78% · 15h-0.78% · 15h-0.78%15h-1.14% · 16h-1.14% · 16h-1.14%16h-0.42% · 17h-0.42% · 17h-0.42%17h-0.09% · 18h-0.09% · 18h-0.09%18h-0.02% · 19h-0.02% · 19h-0.02%19h-0.54% · 20h-0.54% · 20h-0.54%20h1.29% · 21h1.29% · 21h1.29%21h★ BEST-0.78% · 22h-0.78% · 22h-0.78%22h-0.19% · 23h-0.19% · 23h-0.19%23h-0.51% · 00h-0.51% · 00h-0.51%00h0.27% · 01h0.27% · 01h0.27%01h-0.13% · 02h-0.13% · 02h-0.13%02h-0.42% · 03h-0.42% · 03h-0.42%03h-1.05% · 04h-1.05% · 04h-1.05%04h0.48% · 05h0.48% · 05h0.48%05h-0.31% · 06h-0.31% · 06h-0.31%06h0.02% · 07h0.02% · 07h0.02%07h0.06% · 08h0.06% · 08h0.06%08h0.46% · 09h0.46% · 09h0.46%09h-0.87% · 10h-0.87% · 10h-0.87%10h-0.31% · 11h-0.31% · 11h-0.31%11h-0.90% · 12h-0.90% · 12h-0.90%12h-1.23% · 13h-1.23% · 13h-1.23%13h▼ WORST-1.07% · 14h-1.07% · 14h-1.07%14hTIME PATTERNAsia-led (+-1.65%)RUNSup max 3 · down max 6BREADTH25% up · 75% down
6 up bars · 18 down · best 1.29% · worst -1.23% · typical |Δ| 0.556%

§12 · Equity curve & underwater drawdown

Cumulative compounded return + running peak-to-trough
EQUITY & DRAWDOWN ANALYSIS · n=25 barsSEVERE DRAWDOWN -7.90%FINAL-7.90%MAX DD-7.90%RECOVERYONGOING · 24 barsMAX RUN-UP+0.00%UNDERWATER24/25 (96%)STREAK↘ 5EQUITY CURVE · end 0.9210 · peak 1.0000 · range [0.9210, 1.0000]1.00000.9210break-even = 1★ PEAK 1.0000UNDERWATER DRAWDOWN · max -7.90% · significant0%-7.90%▼ TROUGH -7.90%TOP DRAWDOWN PERIODS · 1 total#1 -7.90%bar 2-25 · 24 bars · ONGOINGDD SEVERITYsignificant (max -7.90%)RECOVERYongoing · 24 barsTIME UNDER WATER96% of session · 24/25 bars
final equity 0.9210 (-7.90%) · max DD -7.90% · time-under-water 24/25 bars

§13 · Rolling-window statistics (w = 6 bars)

Rolling annualised Sharpe ratio · green positive · red negative
n=19 · +0 / −19 (0% positive) · μ=-38.38 · σ=32.47UNPROFITABLE STRATEGYLAST -97.48 (-1.82σ vs μ)110.8355.410.00-55.41-110.83μ = -38.38-110.83-110.83-17.57-17.57-11.85-11.85-7.21-7.21-15.77-15.77-9.46-9.46-1.00-1.00-75.76-75.76-71.51-71.51-38.04-38.04-33.34-33.34-43.26-43.26-36.62-36.62-9.46-9.46-5.21-5.21-33.21-33.21-44.25-44.25-67.39-67.39-97.48-97.48v > 0 · positivev < 0 · negativeμ mean lineμ ± σ bandlatest bar (outlined)
latest -97.478 · range [-110.83, -1.00] · μ -38.380 · positive Sharpe = excess-return-per-risk earned by buying-and-holding through this window
Rolling annualised volatility (%)
n=19 · μ=55.2597 · σ=12.3361 · range [33.8749, 76.0975] · R²=0.119▲ RISING +49.12%σ EXTREME 22.32%LAST 58.693976.097565.541954.986244.430633.8749μ = 55.2597max 76.0975min 33.8749dataMA(3)OLS R²=0.12μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
latest 58.69% · range [33.87%, 76.10%] · μ 55.26% · σ̂ scaled to annualised (×√8760)
Rolling lag-1 autocorrelation ρ(1)
n=19 · +3 / −16 (16% positive) · μ=-0.252 · σ=0.265MEAN-REVERSIONLAST -0.014 (+0.90σ vs μ)0.5970.2980.000-0.298-0.597μ = -0.2520.3740.374-0.110-0.110-0.594-0.594-0.597-0.597-0.537-0.537-0.557-0.557-0.353-0.353-0.187-0.1870.0360.036-0.346-0.346-0.307-0.307-0.412-0.412-0.324-0.324-0.382-0.382-0.403-0.403-0.182-0.182-0.039-0.0390.1480.148-0.014-0.014v > 0 · positivev < 0 · negativeμ mean lineμ ± σ bandlatest bar (outlined)
latest -0.014 · |ρ| > 0.3 ⇒ regime with persistence (ρ > 0) or reversal (ρ < 0) · |ρ| ≤ 0.1 = consistent with random walk

§14 · Hypothesis tests (α = 0.05)

Formal inference at 5% significance
1 of 6 REJECT · mixed evidence1 reject·5 pass·α = 0.05
𝒩

Jarque-Bera

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Δln-r ~ Normal(μ, σ²)

STATISTIC
2.7975
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.2469
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainednormality not rejected
ρ

Ljung-Box(h=5)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: No serial autocorrelation up to lag 5

STATISTIC
6.9468
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.2235
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedconsistent with white noise
Ψ

Dickey-Fuller (τ_μ)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: p has a unit root (non-stationary)

STATISTIC
-0.0127
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.9548
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedrandom-walk behaviour (crit ≈ -2.86)
±

Wald-Wolfowitz runs

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Sign sequence of Δ is random

STATISTIC
-0.5652
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.5719
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedsigns appear random (9 runs)
χ

KPSS (μ stationarity)

REJECT H₀**

H₀: p IS level-stationary

STATISTIC
0.8805
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.0046
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p < α · rejection zonenon-stationary (crit 0.463)
χ

Variance ratio q=3

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Δln-r is a random walk · VR = 1

STATISTIC
-0.0844
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.9328
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedVR 0.974 ≈ 1 (RW behaviour)
Each row states an explicit null H₀, the test statistic, an approximated p-value, and the decision. REJECT means evidence against H₀. KPSS complements ADF (rejecting both ⇒ ambiguous; rejecting one ⇒ clean verdict).

§15 · Spectral analysis (DFT periodogram)

Power spectrum of Δln-r · ‖X̂(k)‖²/n
n=12 bins · noise floor μ=4.23e-5 · top T=2.00h (34.6%) · top-3 cover 67.4%2 SIGNIFICANT CYCLEScumulative energy ↗ (2 bins above 2× noise)1.8e-41.3e-48.8e-54.4e-50.0e+0μ noise floor2× noise (significance)period 24.0 · power 6.80e-5 · 13.4% energyperiod 24.0 · power 6.80e-5 · 13.4% energyperiod 12.0 · power 9.83e-5 · 19.4% energyperiod 12.0 · power 9.83e-5 · 19.4% energyperiod 8.0 · power 5.99e-6 · 1.2% energyperiod 8.0 · power 5.99e-6 · 1.2% energyperiod 6.0 · power 8.91e-6 · 1.8% energyperiod 6.0 · power 8.91e-6 · 1.8% energyperiod 4.8 · power 1.01e-5 · 2.0% energyperiod 4.8 · power 1.01e-5 · 2.0% energyperiod 4.0 · power 3.02e-5 · 6.0% energyperiod 4.0 · power 3.02e-5 · 6.0% energyperiod 3.4 · power 2.77e-5 · 5.5% energyperiod 3.4 · power 2.77e-5 · 5.5% energyperiod 3.0 · power 4.26e-5 · 8.4% energyperiod 3.0 · power 4.26e-5 · 8.4% energyperiod 2.7 · power 1.10e-5 · 2.2% energyperiod 2.7 · power 1.10e-5 · 2.2% energyperiod 2.4 · power 1.81e-5 · 3.6% energyperiod 2.4 · power 1.81e-5 · 3.6% energyperiod 2.2 · power 1.08e-5 · 2.1% energyperiod 2.2 · power 1.08e-5 · 2.1% energyperiod 2.0 · power 1.76e-4 · 34.6% energyperiod 2.0 · power 1.76e-4 · 34.6% energy50% by T=3.0h#1 dominantT=2.00h#2T=12.00h#3T=24.00hT=2hT=3hT=4hT=6hT=8hT=12hT=16hT=24h← shorter cycle (high freq · Nyquist=½) · period T (bars per cycle) · longer cycle (low freq · 1/n) →#1 dominant#2 peak#3 peak> 2× noisenoiseμ floor2μ sig.cum energy
dominant period ≈ 2.00h (freq 0.500) · concentrates 34.6% of total energy · Σ|X̂|²/n = 5.075e-4

▸ Depth section using sovereign-store price series (5000 bars · effective 5257847 bars/year) — annualisation reflects native polling cadence, not upstream timeframes.

§16 · NOSTRADAMUS continuous quant — perp leverage & bootstrap MC

Continuous-price extension of the prediction-market quant module. Kelly growth on observed returns (Merton μ/σ² parametric vs argmax empirical), Monte-Carlo equity fan bootstrapped from the historical return distribution at quarter-Kelly leverage, and an annualized return decomposition. Sweep parameters in the simulator.

§17 · Continuous Kelly

Continuous-Kelly growth · g(f) = E[ln(1 + f·r)]
NO LONG EDGE · μ -0.001% per barparametric μ/σ² short edge (μ<0) · μ -0.001% · σ 0.03%
μ per barmean
-0.001%
σ per barvol
0.03%
Empirical f★argmax g(f)
0.00×
from observed distribution
Parametric f★μ/σ²
-120.76×
Merton continuous-time
Half-Kelly½ f★
0.00×
~⅔ of full growth, half the variance
Quarter-Kelly¼ f★
0.00×
industry default — survives model error
-0.01%0.02%0.05%0.07%0.10%0.0×1.6×3.2×4.8×6.4×8.0×leverage fraction fexpected log-growth per bar
g(f) empiricalf★ argmaxparametric f★
Maximum expected log-growth from leveraging the historical return distribution. Empirical f★ argmaxes the sample expectation; parametric f★ = μ/σ² is Merton's continuous-time optimum.

§18 · MC equity fan

Bootstrapped equity fan at 0.10× leverage
Median CAGR/bar -0.000% · annualized Sharpe -80.54400 paths × 720 bars · leverage 0.10× · bootstrap from 4999 observed returns
Sharpe / barμ/σ
-0.035
annualized -80.54
μ per barafter L
-0.000%
σ per barafter L
0.00%
VaR 95%5%
0.00%
per-bar worst-case
CVaR 95%ES
0.01%
mean tail loss
Max DD (median)MDD
-0.1%
0.95×0.97×0.99×1.01×1.03×1.05×0120240360480600720startbar #equity multiple
median25/75 band5/95 band
Median path with 25/75 and 5/95 percentile bands across 400 simulated careers. Bars resample with replacement from the observed return distribution — preserves fat tails the parametric model misses.

§19 · Annualized breakdown

Annualized return components
APR -1000% · APY -100% · Sharpe -76.62σ ann 63% · Sortino -62.20 · n 4999 · ⚠ capped (n=4999 too small to support 8760-bar projection)
-9194%-7340%-5486%-3632%-1778%76%-1000.0%APR (simple)-100.0%APY (compound)63.4%Ann. vol σ-7661.6%Sharpe (ann)-6219.8%Sortino (ann)
Simple APR vs compounded APY · annualized volatility · risk-adjusted Sharpe and Sortino. All scaled by √(periods/yr).

§20 · GARCH(1,1) volatility band

GARCH(1,1) · conditional vol envelope (±2σ)
GARCH persistence α+β = 0.980· σ̂ₜ = 1.001% · long-run σ = 2.236%
0.3310.3410.3500.3590.3680.378t-4999t-4166t-3333t-2500t-1666t-833t-0

Persistence near 1 ⇒ vol clusters strongly (slow mean reversion). Long-run σ is the unconditional target the conditional vol orbits. The ±2σ band reflects time-varying scale, unlike a flat-vol band.

Time-varying volatility band fitted to the price series. Persistence α+β > 0.98 means vol shocks decay slowly — recent moves stay relevant.

§∞ · Provenance & attestation

Upstream
api.hyperliquid.xyz
Snapshot fetched
2026-06-14 14:30:30 UTC
Snapshot age
1.7s
History points
25 hourly closes
Page rendered
2026-06-14 14:30:32 UTC
Storage policy
no persistence — fetched on every request
SHA-256 attestation
8a254a3039ea050d7aef28461cc96b4d4723bdf4d0a1086b9823cef927f18dee · deterministic hash of the source snapshot — proves this page was rendered from this exact data
Open data licence
CC0 / public domain · free to mirror, syndicate, analyse

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Also see: /arb opportunities · RSS feed

Market depth

▸ live order book · Hyperliquid perp
Depth within 1bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Depth within 5bp
$9.63K
bid $5.26K · ask $4.36K
Depth within 10bp
$40.77K
bid $26.36K · ask $14.41K
Depth within 50bp
$97.58K
bid $60.91K · ask $36.67K
Mid price
0.345205
(best bid + best ask) / 2
Spread
3.8bp
(bestAsk − bestBid) / mid
Imbalance (whole book)
+0.249
bid-heavy
Imbalance (top-5)
-0.014
ask-heavy top-of-book

Slippage scenarios

▸ live book walk · Hyperliquid perp

Simulating a market order at three notionals against the live book. Slippage = avg execution price vs. mid, in basis points. Worst fill = price of the deepest level touched. Live JSON: /api/asset/hl-ONDO/slippage?size=10000&side=buy

SideNotionalAvg fillSlippageWorst fillLevelsStatus
BUY$1.00K0.3453072.97bp0.3453603FILLED
BUY$10.00K0.3454075.86bp0.3454808FILLED
BUY$100.00K0.34555410.10bp0.34567020PARTIAL
SELL$1.00K0.3451401.88bp0.3451401FILLED
SELL$10.00K0.3450524.42bp0.3450206FILLED
SELL$100.00K0.34485610.10bp0.34470020PARTIAL

Funding carry

▸ SHORTS PAY · longs receive
Hourly funding
-4.331e-6
-0.00043% / hr
Annualised APR
-3.797%
hourly · 24 · 365.25
Long: days to 1% carry
96.2d
longs receive
Short: days to 1% carry
96.2d
shorts pay
SideDirectionAnnualised carryDays → 1%Days → 10%
LONGRECEIVE3.797%96.2d2.64y
SHORTPAY-3.797%96.2d2.64y

/api/asset/hl-ONDO/carry · same metrics, JSON

Volume profile

▸ real volume · Hyperliquid candlesstep $ 1 · 25 records
Price binBarsVolumeDistribution
$0.000000–$1.0000★25$16.36M

★ POC = Point of Control (highest-volume bin). Live JSON: /api/asset/hl-ONDO/volprofile?priceStep=1

Order flow

▸ ASK-LEAN · -0.489 · Hyperliquid candles
Bars (buy / sell)
6 / 18
1 unclassified
Buy weight
$4.04M
real volume
Sell weight
$11.77M
real volume
Net delta
$7.73M
sellers net
Imbalance
-48.93%
(buy − sell) / (buy + sell)
Toxicity (VPIN)
48.9%
two-sided / balanced
Impact (|Δp|/vol)
—
needs real volume

Sparkline = cumulative delta over the 25-record window./api/asset/hl-ONDO/flow?rollingWindow=30

Cascade clusters

▸ DOWN · 4 found · deepest 4.29% · Hyperliquid candles

Price-only proxy for forced-unwind clusters. No exchange liquidation feed is wired — read each row as a candidate event, not a confirmed liquidation.

#WindowDurationPeak → TroughDrawdownBars
#12026-06-14 10:00:00Z4.0h0.360760→0.3453004.285%5
#22026-06-13 15:00:00Z5.0h0.374720→0.3636902.944%6
#32026-06-14 03:00:00Z3.0h0.363980→0.3582301.580%4

/api/asset/hl-ONDO/cascades?windowMs=10800000&minDrawdownPct=0.005 · full list + parameters in JSON

Risk metrics

▸ sovereign store · 5,000 barsperiods/year ≈ 5.26M
Realized vol (annualised)
63.44%
σ per bar = 0.000277
Mean return (annualised)
-4860.75%
μ per bar = -0.000009
Sharpe (rf=0)
-76.62
annualised; risk-free assumed zero
Max drawdown
4.97%
peak 0.36 → trough 0.34 over 4858 bars

/api/asset/hl-ONDO/risk · same metrics, JSON