HYPERLIQUID · PERPETUAL FUTURES

NIL

NIL-USD perpetual · 24/7 trading on Hyperliquid

▸ Advanced metrics · M2M bundle

hyperliquid · perp-nil · fresh · feed 5s old
24h sparkline · 60 pts▼ -3.53%
realized vol (ann.)
164.28%
max drawdown
5.96%
sharpe
-30.78
ulcer index
3.39%
RMS drawdown
pain index
2.71%
mean drawdown
mod. VaR 95%
0.09%
Cornish-Fisher
martin ratio
-1493.14
ret / ulcer
CDaR 95%
5.81%
cond. drawdown
gain/pain
0.95
Σgain / Σ|loss|
sterling
-871.08
ret / CDaR
omega (θ=0)
0.95
upside/downside
roll spread
0.0 bps
implied (price-only)
bars used
2000
store
spread
—
24h Δ
-3.53%
flow lean
—
carry
longs_pay
10.95%
signalSHORTconfidence 39%suggested side: SELL
  • 24h change -3.53%
  • funding: longs pay — perp shorts get paid to wait
Same bundle via M2M API: /api/m2m/hl-NIL/bundle · venue execution: hyperliquid →
LIVEPOLL0SRCFRESH5.0s⏱--:--:-- UTC8NEXT8.0sUP0s--:--HIST0/30
▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC FRESH·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC FRESH·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·
MARK · live
$0.040
24h Δ · live
-3.53%
24h vol · live
$1.0M
NIL · live 24h price
n=25 · μ=0.0395 · σ=0.0008 · range [0.0384, 0.0416] · R²=0.171▼ FALLING -2.12%σ NORMAL 2.13%LAST 0.03970.04160.04080.04000.03920.0384μ = 0.0395max 0.0416min 0.0384dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.17μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxminlive endpoint
25 closes · last $0.04
Funding direction · live
Long fee 48.1%Short fee 51.9%SHORT FEE51.9%
Σ = 0.0%
Σ-sides total = 0.00% (100.00pp arb gap)
H(p) entropy = 0.999 / 1.00 bits (100%) · max uncertainty (~50/50)
Long fee
48.1%▬ +0.00pp
Short fee
51.9%▬ +0.00pp
1h funding 0.001250% · longs pay
Hourly contract volume · live
n=25 · Σ=25,220,733 · μ=1008829.3 · σ=760719.7 · CV=0.75STEADY FLOWcumulative energy ↗ · 50% by h=100771,7141,543,4282,315,1423,086,856μ = 10088293,086,85650%h1h5h9h13h17h21h25#1 peak#2-3> μactivequietμ linecum energy
peak 3086856 contracts
Live numerics · pulse on poll
LIVE NUMERICS9 metrics·POLL 0
⏱snapshot age
5.0s
$mark $
$0.0397
$mid $
$0.0397
◉prev-day close
$0.0412
Δ24h Δ %
-3.531%
$24h vol $
$1.00M
◐open interest $
$795.08k
%funding (1h)
0.001250%
%funding (yr)
+10.95%/yr

§1 · 24h time-series

Close price · hourly
n=25 · μ=0.0395 · σ=0.0008 · range [0.0384, 0.0416] · R²=0.171▼ FALLING -2.12%σ NORMAL 2.13%LAST 0.03970.04160.04080.04000.03920.0384μ = 0.0395max 0.0416min 0.0384dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.17μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
mark $0.0397 · 24h -3.53% · range $[0.0384, 0.0416]
OHLC candles · hourly
n=25 · up 9 · down 16 (36% up) · range [0.0382, 0.0419] · σ=0.0008 · CV=0.02 · bodyµ=50%STRONG BEARISH -3.55%CLOSE 0.0397 vs OPEN 0.0412 (-3.55%)&#9660; CLOSE 0.03970.04190.04100.04010.03910.0382μ close = 0.0395O0.041 H0.041 L0.040 C0.041 (-1.46%)O0.041 H0.041 L0.040 C0.041 (-1.46%)O0.041 H0.041 L0.040 C0.040 (-1.33%)O0.041 H0.041 L0.040 C0.040 (-1.33%)O0.040 H0.040 L0.039 C0.039 (-2.08%)O0.040 H0.040 L0.039 C0.039 (-2.08%)O0.039 H0.039 L0.039 C0.039 (-0.36%)O0.039 H0.039 L0.039 C0.039 (-0.36%)O0.039 H0.039 L0.038 C0.039 (-0.71%)O0.039 H0.039 L0.038 C0.039 (-0.71%)O0.039 H0.039 L0.038 C0.039 (-0.13%)O0.039 H0.039 L0.038 C0.039 (-0.13%)O0.039 H0.039 L0.038 C0.039 (-0.86%)O0.039 H0.039 L0.038 C0.039 (-0.86%)O0.039 H0.039 L0.039 C0.039 (+0.62%)O0.039 H0.039 L0.039 C0.039 (+0.62%)O0.039 H0.039 L0.038 C0.039 (-0.46%)O0.039 H0.039 L0.038 C0.039 (-0.46%)O0.039 H0.039 L0.038 C0.039 (-0.46%)O0.039 H0.039 L0.038 C0.039 (-0.46%)O0.039 H0.039 L0.038 C0.038 (-0.24%)O0.039 H0.039 L0.038 C0.038 (-0.24%)O0.038 H0.039 L0.038 C0.039 (+1.48%)O0.038 H0.039 L0.038 C0.039 (+1.48%)O0.039 H0.039 L0.039 C0.039 (+0.97%)O0.039 H0.039 L0.039 C0.039 (+0.97%)O0.040 H0.040 L0.039 C0.040 (+0.82%)O0.040 H0.040 L0.039 C0.040 (+0.82%)O0.040 H0.040 L0.039 C0.039 (-2.36%)O0.040 H0.040 L0.039 C0.039 (-2.36%)O0.039 H0.040 L0.039 C0.040 (+2.17%)O0.039 H0.040 L0.039 C0.040 (+2.17%)O0.040 H0.040 L0.039 C0.039 (-1.83%)O0.040 H0.040 L0.039 C0.039 (-1.83%)O0.039 H0.039 L0.039 C0.039 (-0.38%)O0.039 H0.039 L0.039 C0.039 (-0.38%)3.7%O0.039 H0.041 L0.039 C0.040 (+3.73%)O0.039 H0.041 L0.039 C0.040 (+3.73%)O0.040 H0.042 L0.040 C0.042 (+2.89%)O0.040 H0.042 L0.040 C0.042 (+2.89%)O0.042 H0.042 L0.040 C0.041 (-2.29%)O0.042 H0.042 L0.040 C0.041 (-2.29%)O0.041 H0.042 L0.040 C0.041 (+0.59%)O0.041 H0.042 L0.040 C0.041 (+0.59%)O0.041 H0.041 L0.040 C0.040 (-3.41%)O0.041 H0.041 L0.040 C0.040 (-3.41%)O0.040 H0.040 L0.039 C0.040 (-0.22%)O0.040 H0.040 L0.039 C0.040 (-0.22%)O0.040 H0.040 L0.040 C0.040 (+0.00%)O0.040 H0.040 L0.040 C0.040 (+0.00%)#1#5#9#13#17#21#25up bar (C≥O)down bar (C<O)MA(5) closeμ closedoji (~no body)biggest body
25 bars
Hourly volume (base units)
n=25 · Σ=25,220,733 · μ=1008829.3 · σ=760719.7 · CV=0.75STEADY FLOWcumulative energy &nearr; · 50% by h=100771,7141,543,4282,315,1423,086,856μ = 10088291,020,119 · 33.0% peak1,020,119 · 33.0% peak2,878,328 · 93.2% peak2,878,328 · 93.2% peak3,086,8563,086,856 · 100.0% peak3,086,856 · 100.0% peak1,313,933 · 42.6% peak1,313,933 · 42.6% peak948,902 · 30.7% peak948,902 · 30.7% peak809,815 · 26.2% peak809,815 · 26.2% peak1,281,423 · 41.5% peak1,281,423 · 41.5% peak260,176 · 8.4% peak260,176 · 8.4% peak842,132 · 27.3% peak842,132 · 27.3% peak233,941 · 7.6% peak233,941 · 7.6% peak327,920 · 10.6% peak327,920 · 10.6% peak1,518,549 · 49.2% peak1,518,549 · 49.2% peak415,518 · 13.5% peak415,518 · 13.5% peak336,766 · 10.9% peak336,766 · 10.9% peak1,314,673 · 42.6% peak1,314,673 · 42.6% peak335,888 · 10.9% peak335,888 · 10.9% peak1,425,333 · 46.2% peak1,425,333 · 46.2% peak664,229 · 21.5% peak664,229 · 21.5% peak1,721,858 · 55.8% peak1,721,858 · 55.8% peak411,563 · 13.3% peak411,563 · 13.3% peak1,480,886 · 48.0% peak1,480,886 · 48.0% peak787,674 · 25.5% peak787,674 · 25.5% peak1,166,102 · 37.8% peak1,166,102 · 37.8% peak633,007 · 20.5% peak633,007 · 20.5% peak5,142 · 0.2% peak5,142 · 0.2% peak50%#1#5#9#13#17#21#25#1 peak#2-3> μactivequietμ linecum energy
Σ vol 25220733 · peak 3086856 · CV 0.75

§2 · Returns distribution (log-returns)

Histogram of rₜ = ln(pₜ/pₜ₋₁)
n=24 · 12 bins · μ=-0.0009 · σ=0.0161 · skew=0.24 (symmetric) · kurt=-0.43 (mesokurtic)65320 1-293.58bpbin -293.58bp · n=1 · 16.7% peakbin -293.58bp · n=1 · 16.7% peak 3-236.17bpbin -236.17bp · n=3 · 50.0% peakbin -236.17bp · n=3 · 50.0% peak 1-178.77bpbin -178.77bp · n=1 · 16.7% peakbin -178.77bp · n=1 · 16.7% peak 1-121.36bpbin -121.36bp · n=1 · 16.7% peakbin -121.36bp · n=1 · 16.7% peak 4-63.95bpbin -63.95bp · n=4 · 66.7% peakbin -63.95bp · n=4 · 66.7% peak 6-6.55bpbin -6.55bp · n=6 · 100.0% peakbin -6.55bp · n=6 · 100.0% peak 150.86bpbin 50.86bp · n=1 · 16.7% peakbin 50.86bp · n=1 · 16.7% peak 3108.27bpbin 108.27bp · n=3 · 50.0% peakbin 108.27bp · n=3 · 50.0% peak 1165.67bpbin 165.67bp · n=1 · 16.7% peakbin 165.67bp · n=1 · 16.7% peak 1223.08bpbin 223.08bp · n=1 · 16.7% peakbin 223.08bp · n=1 · 16.7% peak 1280.49bpbin 280.49bp · n=1 · 16.7% peakbin 280.49bp · n=1 · 16.7% peak 1337.89bpbin 337.89bp · n=1 · 16.7% peakbin 337.89bp · n=1 · 16.7% peakμΔ < 0 · loss barsΔ ≈ 0 · flatΔ > 0 · gain barsN(μ,σ²) referenceμ line · ±σ band shaded
n=24 · positive 10 · negative 14
Q-Q plot · standardised rₜ vs N(0,1)
n=24 · skew=0.32 · kurt=-0.09 · near 23 / mid 1 / far 0 · OLS slope=1.01 intercept=-0.00MATCHES NORMAL · WELL-BEHAVEDUPPER TAIL NORMALLOWER TAIL NORMAL-3σ-3σ-2σ-2σ-1σ-1σ+0σ+0σ+1σ+1σ+2σ+2σ+3σ+3σsample ↓marginal: sample bars + theoretical N(0,1) curve →theoretical Φ⁻¹(p) →↑ sample z-quantile|Δ| < 0.3σ · on the line|Δ| < 1σ · moderate|Δ| ≥ 1σ · outliery = x refOLS fit

§3 · Spot quote

Mark price
$0.0397
Mid price
$0.0397
24h change
-3.53%
Mark–mid spread
0.00 bps
Prev-day close
$0.0412

§4 · Sample moments (prices)

Descriptive statistics · 5-number summary · shape diagnostics
SAMPLE MOMENTS · N=25RIGHT-SKEWED (G₁=0.78)
μ MEAN0.0395$95% CI: [0.0392$, 0.0398$]
σ STD DEV0.0008$σ² = 0.007×10⁻⁴ · CV = 2.13%
med MEDIAN0.0392$Q₁ 0.0389$ · Q₃ 0.0398$
FIVE-NUMBER SUMMARY · BOX PLOTrange 0.0032$ · IQR 0.0010$ (1.349σ→0.0011$)
min 0.0384$Q₁ 0.0389$med 0.0392$Q₃ 0.0398$max 0.0416$μ
SKEWNESS · G₁0.778right-skewed
−3−10+1+3
EXCESS KURTOSIS · G₂-0.371mesokurtic · normal-like
−30+2+4+6
μ ↔ medianμ > med · right-tailed|μ−med| / σ = 0.36
σ × 1.349 ↔ IQRconsistent with normalratio = 1.15
range ↔ σconcentrated (range < 4σ)range / σ = 3.76
μ = mean · σ = standard deviation · CV = coefficient of variation. Skew (G₁): >0 right-skewed. Kurt (G₂, excess): >0 leptokurtic. 95% CI = μ ± 1.96·SE.

§5 · Returns analytics (log-returns)

Risk-adjusted performance · log-returns
RETURNS · RISK-ADJUSTEDUNPROFITABLE · SR=-5.01
μᵣ MEAN / h-0.089368%drift is negative per h · |μ|/σ = 0.054
σᵣ STD / h1.669385%σ²ᵣ = 2.787×10⁻⁴ · CV = 18.68×
σ ANNUALISED156.25%/yrscaled by √8760 (hourly→yearly) · 1.669%/h base
RISK-ADJUSTED PERFORMANCEhigher = better edge per unit risk
SHARPE (annualised)-5.01negative edge
-2-10+1+2+3+4
SORTINO (annualised)-5.55downside drag
-2-10+1+2+3+4
CALMAR (return / max-DD)-100.00drawdown overwhelms returns
-20+2+4+6
RETURN-DISTRIBUTION SHAPE|skew| < 0.5 ≈ symmetric · |kurt| < 1 ≈ mesokurtic
SKEWNESS · G₁0.35approximately symmetric
-3-10+1+3
EXCESS KURTOSIS · G₂0.19mesokurtic · normal-like tails
-30+2+4+6
SORTINO vs SHARPEdownside vol < total vol · favourableSoR / SR = 1.11
CALMAR · DD CONTROLdrawdown > returns · adverseCR = -100.00
EXPECTED EDGE-782.86%/yr driftμ × 8760 = annualised expectation
rₜ = ln(pₜ/pₜ₋₁). σ × √8760 = annualised. Sharpe = μ/σ scaled; Sortino uses downside-only vol; Calmar = annual return / max drawdown.

§6 · Risk metrics

Tail risk + drawdown · downside diagnostics
TAIL & DRAWDOWN RISKHIGH · 95% VaR 2.25%
VaR₉₅ (h)2.250%5% prob of larger adverse h move
VaR₉₉ (h)3.001%1% prob · extreme-tail threshold
ES₉₅ (CVaR)2.741%expected loss given 5% tail event
MAX DRAWDOWN5.27%10h from peak to trough
TAIL-RISK LADDER (h losses)larger negative = worse · markers show severity
0 · no lossVaR₉₅−2.250%VaR₉₉−3.001%ES₉₅−2.741%worst tail ←→ zero loss
MAX DRAWDOWN PROFILEsignificant drawdown · 10h duration
PEAK4.06$
−5.27% drawdown over 10h
3.84$TROUGH
ES / VaR · TAIL THICKNESSmild tail heaviness|ES₉₅| / |VaR₉₅| = 1.22× (normal ≈ 1.25)
VaR₉₉ / VaR₉₅ · CONCENTRATIONmoderate extreme-tail concentrationratio = 1.33× (normal ≈ 1.41)
DRAWDOWN · CAPITAL DURATIONsignificant drawdownrecovery needed: +5.57% (compounding)
VaR = quantile loss · ES (CVaR) = expected loss conditional on tail · DD = peak-to-trough decline. Under normality ES₉₅/VaR₉₅ ≈ 1.25; ratio > 1.5 ⇒ fat-tail regime.

§7 · Technicals

RSI(14)
46.0 · neutral
Bollinger %B
0.565 · within band
Bollinger upper
$0.0412
Bollinger MA
$0.0395
Bollinger lower
$0.0377

§8 · Time-series structure

Regime & autocorrelation diagnostics
TIME-SERIES STRUCTUREREGIME: MARTINGALE · UNPREDICTABLE
ρ(1) AUTOCORR-0.102within white-noise band
ρ(2) AUTOCORR+0.007lag-2 not significant
H · HURST EXPONENT0.935strongly persistent
OLS TREND · t-STAT+2.180significant @ α=0.05
HURST EXPONENT [0, 1]strongly persistent · H = 0.935
H = 0.935STRONGLY PERSISTENT
0
anti-persistent0.45
mean-reverting0.5
random walk0.55
persistent1
strongly trending
AUTOCORRELATION FUNCTION · ρ(k) for k=1..5WHITE NOISE · no significant lags
k=1-0.102k=2+0.007k=3-0.109k=4-0.099k=5-0.1730+1−1+0.41−0.41+ momentum (ρ > +0.41)− reversal (ρ < −0.41)noise (within band)±2/√n threshold
OLS TREND · t-STAT · [-5, +5]SIGNIFICANT @ 5% (|t|=2.18)
−5 reject−1.960 retain H₀+1.96+5 reject
REGIME CLASSIFICATIONMARTINGALE · UNPREDICTABLEfrom Hurst + ρ(1) joint diagnosis
PREDICTABILITY · score 0.97very high · strong structure|ρ(1)| + 2·|H − 0.5| heuristic
TREND SIGNIFICANCESIGNIFICANT @ 5% (|t|=2.18)α=0.05 critical |t|=1.96 · α=0.01 |t|=2.58
ρ(k) = lag-k sample autocorrelation · H = R/S Hurst exponent · t = OLS-trend t-statistic. Significance bands at ±2/√n approximate the 95% white-noise envelope. α=0.05 critical |t|=1.96; α=0.01 |t|=2.58.

§9 · Microstructure

24h volume (USD)
$1.00M
Open interest (USD)
$795.08k
Vol / OI (turnover)
1.26x
1h funding
0.001250%
Funding (annualised)
+10.95%/yr

§10 · Position sizing

Continuous Kelly (μ/σ²)
-3.207× leverage · optimal log-utility leverage
Half-Kelly
-1.603× · industry-standard conservative
Quarter-Kelly
-0.802×

§11 · Hourly return heatmap

24-hour signed Δln-r grid · green = up · red = down
HOURLY RETURN HEATMAP · n=24 bars · best 3.67% · worst -3.22% · typical |Δ| 1.26%MILD BEARISH -2.14%BEST+3.67%10hWORST-3.22%14hTYPICAL |Δ|1.26%mean absoluteCUMULATIVE-2.14%Σ signed ΔSTREAK↘ 1down-runASIA · 00-08 UTCμ +0.29% · Σ +2.35%EUROPE · 08-16 UTCμ +0.00% · Σ +0.04%US · 16-24 UTCμ -0.57% · Σ -4.53%CUMULATIVE Δ PATH · final -2.14%+2.47%-5.42%-1.27% · 17h-1.27% · 17h-1.27%17h-2.19% · 18h-2.19% · 18h-2.19%18h-0.33% · 19h-0.33% · 19h-0.33%19h-0.68% · 20h-0.68% · 20h-0.68%20h0.05% · 21h0.05% · 21h0.05%21h-0.50% · 22h-0.50% · 22h-0.50%22h0.59% · 23h0.59% · 23h0.59%23h-0.46% · 00h-0.46% · 00h-0.46%00h-0.39% · 01h-0.39% · 01h-0.39%01h-0.23% · 02h-0.23% · 02h-0.23%02h1.42% · 03h1.42% · 03h1.42%03h1.17% · 04h1.17% · 04h1.17%04h1.00% · 05h1.00% · 05h1.00%05h-2.20% · 06h-2.20% · 06h-2.20%06h2.04% · 07h2.04% · 07h2.04%07h-1.91% · 08h-1.91% · 08h-1.91%08h-0.35% · 09h-0.35% · 09h-0.35%09h3.67% · 10h3.67% · 10h3.67%10h★ BEST3.05% · 11h3.05% · 11h3.05%11h-2.26% · 12h-2.26% · 12h-2.26%12h0.89% · 13h0.89% · 13h0.89%13h-3.22% · 14h-3.22% · 14h-3.22%14h▼ WORST0.18% · 15h0.18% · 15h0.18%15h-0.19% · 16h-0.19% · 16h-0.19%16hTIME PATTERNAsia-led (+2.35%)RUNSup max 3 · down max 4BREADTH42% up · 58% down
10 up bars · 14 down · best 3.67% · worst -3.22% · typical |Δ| 1.261%

§12 · Equity curve & underwater drawdown

Cumulative compounded return + running peak-to-trough
EQUITY & DRAWDOWN ANALYSIS · n=25 barsLOSS WITH MODERATE DD (-2.44%)FINAL-2.44%MAX DD-5.31%RECOVERYONGOING · 18 barsMAX RUN-UP+2.26%UNDERWATER23/25 (92%)STREAK↘ 1EQUITY CURVE · end 0.9756 · peak 1.0226 · range [0.9469, 1.0226]1.02260.9469break-even = 1★ PEAK 1.0226UNDERWATER DRAWDOWN · max -5.31% · significant0%-5.31%▼ TROUGH -5.31%TOP DRAWDOWN PERIODS · 2 total#1 -5.31%bar 2-19 · 18 bars · recovered#2 -4.59%bar 21-25 · 5 bars · ONGOINGDD SEVERITYsignificant (max -5.31%)RECOVERYongoing · 24 barsTIME UNDER WATER92% of session · 23/25 bars
final equity 0.9756 (-2.44%) · max DD -5.31% · time-under-water 23/25 bars

§13 · Rolling-window statistics (w = 6 bars)

Rolling annualised Sharpe ratio · green positive · red negative
n=19 · +12 / −7 (63% positive) · μ=-1.48 · σ=36.80MIXED EDGELAST -10.82 (-0.25σ vs μ)96.0148.000.00-48.00-96.01μ = -1.48-96.01-96.01-50.80-50.80-44.40-44.40-45.89-45.89-35.00-35.008.558.5539.5139.5145.0345.038.808.8032.5832.5812.9812.98-2.23-2.2315.2415.2426.3026.3025.7825.7819.3519.359.959.9512.9912.99-10.82-10.82v > 0 · positivev < 0 · negativeμ mean lineμ ± σ bandlatest bar (outlined)
latest -10.818 · range [-96.01, 45.03] · μ -1.478 · positive Sharpe = excess-return-per-risk earned by buying-and-holding through this window
Rolling annualised volatility (%)
n=19 · μ=146.3795 · σ=80.1505 · range [39.2122, 260.1972] · R²=0.857▲ RISING +180.91%σ EXTREME 54.76%LAST 210.4004260.1972204.9510149.704794.458539.2122μ = 146.3795max 260.1972min 39.2122dataMA(3)OLS R²=0.86μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
latest 210.40% · range [39.21%, 260.20%] · μ 146.38% · σ̂ scaled to annualised (×√8760)
Rolling lag-1 autocorrelation ρ(1)
n=19 · +3 / −16 (16% positive) · μ=-0.194 · σ=0.312MEAN-REVERSIONLAST -0.537 (-1.10σ vs μ)0.5800.2900.000-0.290-0.580μ = -0.1940.1290.129-0.091-0.091-0.520-0.520-0.519-0.519-0.535-0.535-0.201-0.2010.3180.3180.4740.474-0.006-0.006-0.444-0.444-0.500-0.500-0.580-0.580-0.396-0.396-0.024-0.024-0.118-0.118-0.023-0.023-0.091-0.091-0.018-0.018-0.537-0.537v > 0 · positivev < 0 · negativeμ mean lineμ ± σ bandlatest bar (outlined)
latest -0.537 · |ρ| > 0.3 ⇒ regime with persistence (ρ > 0) or reversal (ρ < 0) · |ρ| ≤ 0.1 = consistent with random walk

§14 · Hypothesis tests (α = 0.05)

Formal inference at 5% significance
ALL TESTS PASS · data behaves as nominal0 reject·6 pass·α = 0.05
𝒩

Jarque-Bera

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Δln-r ~ Normal(μ, σ²)

STATISTIC
0.5132
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.7737
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainednormality not rejected
ρ

Ljung-Box(h=5)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: No serial autocorrelation up to lag 5

STATISTIC
1.9187
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.8612
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedconsistent with white noise
Ψ

Dickey-Fuller (τ_μ)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: p has a unit root (non-stationary)

STATISTIC
-2.2600
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.1912
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedrandom-walk behaviour (crit ≈ -2.86)
±

Wald-Wolfowitz runs

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Sign sequence of Δ is random

STATISTIC
1.0031
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.3158
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedsigns appear random (15 runs)
χ

KPSS (μ stationarity)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: p IS level-stationary

STATISTIC
0.3524
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.0977
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedstationary not rejected (crit 0.463)
χ

Variance ratio q=3

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Δln-r is a random walk · VR = 1

STATISTIC
-0.4059
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.6848
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedVR 0.876 ≈ 1 (RW behaviour)
Each row states an explicit null H₀, the test statistic, an approximated p-value, and the decision. REJECT means evidence against H₀. KPSS complements ADF (rejecting both ⇒ ambiguous; rejecting one ⇒ clean verdict).

§15 · Spectral analysis (DFT periodogram)

Power spectrum of Δln-r · ‖X̂(k)‖²/n
n=12 bins · noise floor μ=3.11e-4 · top T=2.00h (28.2%) · top-3 cover 54.9%1 SIGNIFICANT CYCLEcumulative energy ↗ (1 bin above 2× noise)1.1e-37.9e-45.3e-42.6e-40.0e+0μ noise floor2× noise (significance)period 24.0 · power 3.44e-4 · 9.2% energyperiod 24.0 · power 3.44e-4 · 9.2% energyperiod 12.0 · power 1.37e-4 · 3.7% energyperiod 12.0 · power 1.37e-4 · 3.7% energyperiod 8.0 · power 2.03e-4 · 5.4% energyperiod 8.0 · power 2.03e-4 · 5.4% energyperiod 6.0 · power 4.95e-4 · 13.3% energyperiod 6.0 · power 4.95e-4 · 13.3% energyperiod 4.8 · power 1.28e-4 · 3.4% energyperiod 4.8 · power 1.28e-4 · 3.4% energyperiod 4.0 · power 2.05e-4 · 5.5% energyperiod 4.0 · power 2.05e-4 · 5.5% energyperiod 3.4 · power 1.80e-4 · 4.8% energyperiod 3.4 · power 1.80e-4 · 4.8% energyperiod 3.0 · power 4.99e-4 · 13.4% energyperiod 3.0 · power 4.99e-4 · 13.4% energyperiod 2.7 · power 3.74e-4 · 10.0% energyperiod 2.7 · power 3.74e-4 · 10.0% energyperiod 2.4 · power 1.62e-5 · 0.4% energyperiod 2.4 · power 1.62e-5 · 0.4% energyperiod 2.2 · power 9.82e-5 · 2.6% energyperiod 2.2 · power 9.82e-5 · 2.6% energyperiod 2.0 · power 1.05e-3 · 28.2% energyperiod 2.0 · power 1.05e-3 · 28.2% energy50% by T=3.0h#1 dominantT=2.00h#2T=3.00h#3T=6.00hT=2hT=3hT=4hT=6hT=8hT=12hT=16hT=24h← shorter cycle (high freq · Nyquist=½) · period T (bars per cycle) · longer cycle (low freq · 1/n) →#1 dominant#2 peak#3 peak> 2× noisenoiseμ floor2μ sig.cum energy
dominant period ≈ 2.00h (freq 0.500) · concentrates 28.2% of total energy · Σ|X̂|²/n = 3.731e-3

▸ Depth section using sovereign-store price series (5000 bars · effective 5257847 bars/year) — annualisation reflects native polling cadence, not upstream timeframes.

§16 · NOSTRADAMUS continuous quant — perp leverage & bootstrap MC

Continuous-price extension of the prediction-market quant module. Kelly growth on observed returns (Merton μ/σ² parametric vs argmax empirical), Monte-Carlo equity fan bootstrapped from the historical return distribution at quarter-Kelly leverage, and an annualized return decomposition. Sweep parameters in the simulator.

§17 · Continuous Kelly

Continuous-Kelly growth · g(f) = E[ln(1 + f·r)]
NO LONG EDGE · μ -0.000% per barparametric μ/σ² -0.14× · μ -0.000% · σ 0.08%
μ per barmean
-0.000%
σ per barvol
0.08%
Empirical f★argmax g(f)
0.00×
from observed distribution
Parametric f★μ/σ²
-0.14×
Merton continuous-time
Half-Kelly½ f★
0.00×
~⅔ of full growth, half the variance
Quarter-Kelly¼ f★
0.00×
industry default — survives model error
-0.00%0.02%0.05%0.07%0.10%0.0×0.3×0.5×0.8×1.1×1.3×leverage fraction fexpected log-growth per bar
g(f) empiricalf★ argmaxparametric f★
Maximum expected log-growth from leveraging the historical return distribution. Empirical f★ argmaxes the sample expectation; parametric f★ = μ/σ² is Merton's continuous-time optimum.

§18 · MC equity fan

Bootstrapped equity fan at 0.10× leverage
Median CAGR/bar 0.000% · annualized Sharpe 2.34400 paths × 720 bars · leverage 0.10× · bootstrap from 4999 observed returns
Sharpe / barμ/σ
0.001
annualized 2.34
μ per barafter L
0.000%
σ per barafter L
0.01%
VaR 95%5%
0.01%
per-bar worst-case
CVaR 95%ES
0.02%
mean tail loss
Max DD (median)MDD
-0.0%
0.95×0.97×0.99×1.01×1.03×1.05×0120240360480600720startbar #equity multiple
median25/75 band5/95 band
Median path with 25/75 and 5/95 percentile bands across 400 simulated careers. Bars resample with replacement from the observed return distribution — preserves fat tails the parametric model misses.

§19 · Annualized breakdown

Annualized return components
APR -48% · APY -89% · Sharpe -0.26σ ann 186% · Sortino -0.22 · n 4999
-107%-41%25%91%157%223%-47.7%APR (simple)-89.0%APY (compound)186.1%Ann. vol σ-25.6%Sharpe (ann)-22.5%Sortino (ann)
Simple APR vs compounded APY · annualized volatility · risk-adjusted Sharpe and Sortino. All scaled by √(periods/yr).

§20 · GARCH(1,1) volatility band

GARCH(1,1) · conditional vol envelope (±2σ)
GARCH persistence α+β = 0.980· σ̂ₜ = 1.001% · long-run σ = 2.236%
0.0370.0380.0400.0410.0420.044t-4999t-4166t-3333t-2500t-1666t-833t-0

Persistence near 1 ⇒ vol clusters strongly (slow mean reversion). Long-run σ is the unconditional target the conditional vol orbits. The ±2σ band reflects time-varying scale, unlike a flat-vol band.

Time-varying volatility band fitted to the price series. Persistence α+β > 0.98 means vol shocks decay slowly — recent moves stay relevant.

§∞ · Provenance & attestation

Upstream
api.hyperliquid.xyz
Snapshot fetched
2026-06-14 16:00:12 UTC
Snapshot age
5.0s
History points
25 hourly closes
Page rendered
2026-06-14 16:00:13 UTC
Storage policy
no persistence — fetched on every request
SHA-256 attestation
c1108e0313581a032c0193075111e30cb27e298961d5c125b68e7769e25c31e9 · deterministic hash of the source snapshot — proves this page was rendered from this exact data
Open data licence
CC0 / public domain · free to mirror, syndicate, analyse

§∞-2 · Related markets · explore more

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Also see: /arb opportunities · RSS feed

Market depth

▸ live order book · Hyperliquid perp
Depth within 1bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Depth within 5bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Depth within 10bp
$1.98K
bid $1.78K · ask $199
Depth within 50bp
$38.40K
bid $21.71K · ask $16.69K
Mid price
0.039722
(best bid + best ask) / 2
Spread
17.6bp
(bestAsk − bestBid) / mid
Imbalance (whole book)
+0.100
bid-heavy
Imbalance (top-5)
+0.443
bid-heavy top-of-book

Slippage scenarios

▸ live book walk · Hyperliquid perp

Simulating a market order at three notionals against the live book. Slippage = avg execution price vs. mid, in basis points. Worst fill = price of the deepest level touched. Live JSON: /api/asset/hl-NIL/slippage?size=10000&side=buy

SideNotionalAvg fillSlippageWorst fillLevelsStatus
BUY$1.00K0.03978916.83bp0.0397973FILLED
BUY$10.00K0.03981623.58bp0.03985211FILLED
BUY$100.00K0.03987438.30bp0.03996920PARTIAL
SELL$1.00K0.0396878.81bp0.0396871FILLED
SELL$10.00K0.03966215.11bp0.0396377FILLED
SELL$100.00K0.03959033.31bp0.03948320PARTIAL

Funding carry

▸ LONGS PAY · shorts receive
Hourly funding
+1.250e-5
0.00125% / hr
Annualised APR
10.958%
hourly · 24 · 365.25
Long: days to 1% carry
33.3d
longs pay
Short: days to 1% carry
33.3d
shorts receive
SideDirectionAnnualised carryDays → 1%Days → 10%
LONGPAY-10.958%33.3d333.3d
SHORTRECEIVE10.958%33.3d333.3d

/api/asset/hl-NIL/carry · same metrics, JSON

Volume profile

▸ real volume · Hyperliquid candlesstep $ 1 · 25 records
Price binBarsVolumeDistribution
$0.000000–$1.0000★25$25.22M

★ POC = Point of Control (highest-volume bin). Live JSON: /api/asset/hl-NIL/volprofile?priceStep=1

Order flow

▸ ASK-LEAN · -0.402 · Hyperliquid candles
Bars (buy / sell)
10 / 14
1 unclassified
Buy weight
$7.23M
real volume
Sell weight
$16.97M
real volume
Net delta
$9.74M
sellers net
Imbalance
-40.24%
(buy − sell) / (buy + sell)
Toxicity (VPIN)
40.2%
two-sided / balanced
Impact (|Δp|/vol)
—
needs real volume

Sparkline = cumulative delta over the 25-record window./api/asset/hl-NIL/flow?rollingWindow=30

Cascade clusters

▸ DOWN · 5 found · deepest 4.81% · Hyperliquid candles

Price-only proxy for forced-unwind clusters. No exchange liquidation feed is wired — read each row as a candidate event, not a confirmed liquidation.

#WindowDurationPeak → TroughDrawdownBars
#12026-06-13 17:00:00Z5.0h0.040575→0.0386254.806%6
#22026-06-14 12:00:00Z4.0h0.041589→0.0397144.508%5
#32026-06-14 08:00:00Z1.0h0.039840→0.0388862.395%2

/api/asset/hl-NIL/cascades?windowMs=10800000&minDrawdownPct=0.005 · full list + parameters in JSON

Risk metrics

▸ sovereign store · 5,000 barsperiods/year ≈ 5.26M
Realized vol (annualised)
186.14%
σ per bar = 0.000812
Mean return (annualised)
-47.68%
μ per bar = -0.000000
Sharpe (rf=0)
-0.26
annualised; risk-free assumed zero
Max drawdown
6.41%
peak 0.04 → trough 0.04 over 2074 bars

/api/asset/hl-NIL/risk · same metrics, JSON