HYPERLIQUID · PERPETUAL FUTURES

MOVE

MOVE-USD perpetual · 24/7 trading on Hyperliquid

▸ Advanced metrics · M2M bundle

hyperliquid · perp-move · fresh · feed 2s old
24h sparkline · 60 pts▼ -4.34%
realized vol (ann.)
63.79%
max drawdown
1.66%
sharpe
-31.53
ulcer index
0.91%
RMS drawdown
pain index
0.73%
mean drawdown
mod. VaR 95%
0.02%
Cornish-Fisher
martin ratio
-2221.41
ret / ulcer
CDaR 95%
1.53%
cond. drawdown
gain/pain
0.94
Σgain / Σ|loss|
sterling
-1317.64
ret / CDaR
omega (θ=0)
0.94
upside/downside
roll spread
0.0 bps
implied (price-only)
bars used
2000
store
spread
—
24h Δ
-4.34%
flow lean
—
carry
shorts_pay
-134.03%
signalNEUTRALconfidence 39%
  • 24h change -4.34%
  • funding: shorts pay — perp longs get paid to wait
  • mark cheap vs HL oracle by 33.2bps — long bias
Same bundle via M2M API: /api/m2m/hl-MOVE/bundle · venue execution: hyperliquid →
LIVEPOLL0SRCFRESH1.8s⏱--:--:-- UTC8NEXT8.0sUP0s--:--HIST0/30
▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC FRESH·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC FRESH·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·
MARK · live
$0.012
24h Δ · live
-4.34%
24h vol · live
$0.1M
MOVE · live 24h price
n=25 · μ=0.0120 · σ=0.0002 · range [0.0117, 0.0123] · R²=0.955▼ FALLING -4.32%σ NORMAL 1.46%LAST 0.01170.01230.01220.01200.01190.0117μ = 0.0120max 0.0123min 0.0117dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.95μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxminlive endpoint
25 closes · last $0.01
Funding direction · live
Long fee 49.8%Short fee 50.2%SHORT FEE50.2%
Σ = 0.0%
Σ-sides total = 0.03% (99.97pp arb gap)
H(p) entropy = 1.000 / 1.00 bits (100%) · max uncertainty (~50/50)
Long fee
49.8%▬ +0.00pp
Short fee
50.2%▬ +0.00pp
1h funding -0.015301% · shorts pay
Hourly contract volume · live
n=25 · Σ=11,915,898 · μ=476635.9 · σ=351238.4 · CV=0.74RISING +33% h/hcumulative energy ↗ · 50% by h=140333,824667,6471,001,4711,335,294μ = 4766361,335,29450%h1h5h9h13h17h21h25#1 peak#2-3> μactivequietμ linecum energy
peak 1335294 contracts
Live numerics · pulse on poll
LIVE NUMERICS9 metrics·POLL 0
⏱snapshot age
1.8s
$mark $
$0.0117
$mid $
$0.0117
◉prev-day close
$0.0122
Δ24h Δ %
-4.344%
$24h vol $
$141.86k
◐open interest $
$397.05k
%funding (1h)
-0.015301%
%funding (yr)
-134.03%/yr

§1 · 24h time-series

Close price · hourly
n=25 · μ=0.0120 · σ=0.0002 · range [0.0117, 0.0123] · R²=0.955▼ FALLING -4.32%σ NORMAL 1.46%LAST 0.01170.01230.01220.01200.01190.0117μ = 0.0120max 0.0123min 0.0117dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.95μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
mark $0.0117 · 24h -4.34% · range $[0.0117, 0.0123]
OHLC candles · hourly
n=25 · up 8 · down 17 (32% up) · range [0.0117, 0.0124] · σ=0.0002 · CV=0.01 · bodyµ=45%STRONG BEARISH -5.00%CLOSE 0.0117 vs OPEN 0.0123 (-5.00%)&#9660; CLOSE 0.01170.01240.01220.01200.01190.0117μ close = 0.0120O0.012 H0.012 L0.012 C0.012 (-0.71%)O0.012 H0.012 L0.012 C0.012 (-0.71%)O0.012 H0.012 L0.012 C0.012 (+0.38%)O0.012 H0.012 L0.012 C0.012 (+0.38%)O0.012 H0.012 L0.012 C0.012 (-0.87%)O0.012 H0.012 L0.012 C0.012 (-0.87%)O0.012 H0.012 L0.012 C0.012 (+0.24%)O0.012 H0.012 L0.012 C0.012 (+0.24%)O0.012 H0.012 L0.012 C0.012 (-0.40%)O0.012 H0.012 L0.012 C0.012 (-0.40%)O0.012 H0.012 L0.012 C0.012 (-0.16%)O0.012 H0.012 L0.012 C0.012 (-0.16%)O0.012 H0.012 L0.012 C0.012 (-0.09%)O0.012 H0.012 L0.012 C0.012 (-0.09%)O0.012 H0.012 L0.012 C0.012 (-0.07%)O0.012 H0.012 L0.012 C0.012 (-0.07%)O0.012 H0.012 L0.012 C0.012 (-0.13%)O0.012 H0.012 L0.012 C0.012 (-0.13%)O0.012 H0.012 L0.012 C0.012 (+0.34%)O0.012 H0.012 L0.012 C0.012 (+0.34%)-1.3%O0.012 H0.012 L0.012 C0.012 (-1.26%)O0.012 H0.012 L0.012 C0.012 (-1.26%)O0.012 H0.012 L0.012 C0.012 (+0.05%)O0.012 H0.012 L0.012 C0.012 (+0.05%)O0.012 H0.012 L0.012 C0.012 (-0.39%)O0.012 H0.012 L0.012 C0.012 (-0.39%)O0.012 H0.012 L0.012 C0.012 (-0.18%)O0.012 H0.012 L0.012 C0.012 (-0.18%)O0.012 H0.012 L0.012 C0.012 (-0.57%)O0.012 H0.012 L0.012 C0.012 (-0.57%)O0.012 H0.012 L0.012 C0.012 (+0.45%)O0.012 H0.012 L0.012 C0.012 (+0.45%)O0.012 H0.012 L0.012 C0.012 (-0.08%)O0.012 H0.012 L0.012 C0.012 (-0.08%)O0.012 H0.012 L0.012 C0.012 (-0.41%)O0.012 H0.012 L0.012 C0.012 (-0.41%)O0.012 H0.012 L0.012 C0.012 (+0.34%)O0.012 H0.012 L0.012 C0.012 (+0.34%)O0.012 H0.012 L0.012 C0.012 (+0.13%)O0.012 H0.012 L0.012 C0.012 (+0.13%)O0.012 H0.012 L0.012 C0.012 (-0.53%)O0.012 H0.012 L0.012 C0.012 (-0.53%)O0.012 H0.012 L0.012 C0.012 (+0.23%)O0.012 H0.012 L0.012 C0.012 (+0.23%)O0.012 H0.012 L0.012 C0.012 (-0.67%)O0.012 H0.012 L0.012 C0.012 (-0.67%)O0.012 H0.012 L0.012 C0.012 (-0.42%)O0.012 H0.012 L0.012 C0.012 (-0.42%)O0.012 H0.012 L0.012 C0.012 (-0.23%)O0.012 H0.012 L0.012 C0.012 (-0.23%)#1#5#9#13#17#21#25up bar (C≥O)down bar (C<O)MA(5) closeμ closedoji (~no body)biggest body
25 bars
Hourly volume (base units)
n=25 · Σ=11,915,898 · μ=476635.9 · σ=351238.4 · CV=0.74RISING +33% h/hcumulative energy &nearr; · 50% by h=140333,824667,6471,001,4711,335,294μ = 476636193,163 · 14.5% peak193,163 · 14.5% peak276,663 · 20.7% peak276,663 · 20.7% peak395,996 · 29.7% peak395,996 · 29.7% peak311,626 · 23.3% peak311,626 · 23.3% peak242,604 · 18.2% peak242,604 · 18.2% peak181,428 · 13.6% peak181,428 · 13.6% peak261,560 · 19.6% peak261,560 · 19.6% peak453,333 · 34.0% peak453,333 · 34.0% peak1,287,095 · 96.4% peak1,287,095 · 96.4% peak236,463 · 17.7% peak236,463 · 17.7% peak1,011,906 · 75.8% peak1,011,906 · 75.8% peak271,273 · 20.3% peak271,273 · 20.3% peak177,171 · 13.3% peak177,171 · 13.3% peak733,040 · 54.9% peak733,040 · 54.9% peak433,069 · 32.4% peak433,069 · 32.4% peak418,470 · 31.3% peak418,470 · 31.3% peak254,899 · 19.1% peak254,899 · 19.1% peak739,125 · 55.4% peak739,125 · 55.4% peak232,598 · 17.4% peak232,598 · 17.4% peak230,578 · 17.3% peak230,578 · 17.3% peak190,297 · 14.3% peak190,297 · 14.3% peak343,136 · 25.7% peak343,136 · 25.7% peak1,020,220 · 76.4% peak1,020,220 · 76.4% peak1,335,2941,335,294 · 100.0% peak1,335,294 · 100.0% peak684,891 · 51.3% peak684,891 · 51.3% peak50%#1#5#9#13#17#21#25#1 peak#2-3> μactivequietμ linecum energy
Σ vol 11915898 · peak 1335294 · CV 0.74

§2 · Returns distribution (log-returns)

Histogram of rₜ = ln(pₜ/pₜ₋₁)
n=24 · 12 bins · μ=-0.0018 · σ=0.0040 · skew=-0.54 (left-skewed) · kurt=-0.16 (mesokurtic)75420 1-119.18bpbin -119.18bp · n=1 · 14.3% peakbin -119.18bp · n=1 · 14.3% peak-104.85bp-90.52bp 2-76.19bpbin -76.19bp · n=2 · 28.6% peakbin -76.19bp · n=2 · 28.6% peak 2-61.86bpbin -61.86bp · n=2 · 28.6% peakbin -61.86bp · n=2 · 28.6% peak 1-47.53bpbin -47.53bp · n=1 · 14.3% peakbin -47.53bp · n=1 · 14.3% peak 2-33.19bpbin -33.19bp · n=2 · 28.6% peakbin -33.19bp · n=2 · 28.6% peak 7-18.86bpbin -18.86bp · n=7 · 100.0% peakbin -18.86bp · n=7 · 100.0% peak-4.53bp 49.80bpbin 9.80bp · n=4 · 57.1% peakbin 9.80bp · n=4 · 57.1% peak 224.13bpbin 24.13bp · n=2 · 28.6% peakbin 24.13bp · n=2 · 28.6% peak 338.46bpbin 38.46bp · n=3 · 42.9% peakbin 38.46bp · n=3 · 42.9% peakμΔ < 0 · loss barsΔ ≈ 0 · flatΔ > 0 · gain barsN(μ,σ²) referenceμ line · ±σ band shaded
n=24 · positive 9 · negative 15
Q-Q plot · standardised rₜ vs N(0,1)
n=24 · skew=-0.56 · kurt=0.04 · near 22 / mid 2 / far 0 · OLS slope=1.01 intercept=-0.00APPROXIMATELY NORMALUPPER TAIL NORMALLOWER TAIL NORMAL-3σ-3σ-2σ-2σ-1σ-1σ+0σ+0σ+1σ+1σ+2σ+2σ+3σ+3σsample ↓marginal: sample bars + theoretical N(0,1) curve →theoretical Φ⁻¹(p) →↑ sample z-quantile|Δ| < 0.3σ · on the line|Δ| < 1σ · moderate|Δ| ≥ 1σ · outliery = x refOLS fit

§3 · Spot quote

Mark price
$0.0117
Mid price
$0.0117
24h change
-4.34%
Mark–mid spread
3.41 bps
Prev-day close
$0.0122

§4 · Sample moments (prices)

Descriptive statistics · 5-number summary · shape diagnostics
SAMPLE MOMENTS · N=25PLATYKURTIC · THIN TAILS (G₂=-1.42)
μ MEAN0.0120$95% CI: [0.0119$, 0.0121$]
σ STD DEV0.0002$σ² = 0.000×10⁻⁴ · CV = 1.46%
med MEDIAN0.0120$Q₁ 0.0119$ · Q₃ 0.0122$
FIVE-NUMBER SUMMARY · BOX PLOTrange 0.0006$ · IQR 0.0003$ (1.349σ→0.0002$)
min 0.0117$Q₁ 0.0119$med 0.0120$Q₃ 0.0122$max 0.0123$μ
SKEWNESS · G₁-0.031approximately symmetric
−3−10+1+3
EXCESS KURTOSIS · G₂-1.421platykurtic · thin tails
−30+2+4+6
μ ↔ medianμ > med · right-tailed|μ−med| / σ = 0.13
σ × 1.349 ↔ IQRconsistent with normalratio = 0.82
range ↔ σconcentrated (range < 4σ)range / σ = 3.34
μ = mean · σ = standard deviation · CV = coefficient of variation. Skew (G₁): >0 right-skewed. Kurt (G₂, excess): >0 leptokurtic. 95% CI = μ ± 1.96·SE.

§5 · Returns analytics (log-returns)

Risk-adjusted performance · log-returns
RETURNS · RISK-ADJUSTEDUNPROFITABLE · SR=-40.92
μᵣ MEAN / h-0.184009%drift is negative per h · |μ|/σ = 0.437
σᵣ STD / h0.420833%σ²ᵣ = 0.177×10⁻⁴ · CV = 2.29×
σ ANNUALISED39.39%/yrscaled by √8760 (hourly→yearly) · 0.421%/h base
RISK-ADJUSTED PERFORMANCEhigher = better edge per unit risk
SHARPE (annualised)-40.92negative edge
-2-10+1+2+3+4
SORTINO (annualised)-32.42downside drag
-2-10+1+2+3+4
CALMAR (return / max-DD)-100.00drawdown overwhelms returns
-20+2+4+6
RETURN-DISTRIBUTION SHAPE|skew| < 0.5 ≈ symmetric · |kurt| < 1 ≈ mesokurtic
SKEWNESS · G₁-0.60left-skewed · heavy negative tail
-3-10+1+3
EXCESS KURTOSIS · G₂0.34mesokurtic · normal-like tails
-30+2+4+6
SORTINO vs SHARPEdownside vol < total vol · favourableSoR / SR = 0.79
CALMAR · DD CONTROLdrawdown > returns · adverseCR = -100.00
EXPECTED EDGE-1611.92%/yr driftμ × 8760 = annualised expectation
rₜ = ln(pₜ/pₜ₋₁). σ × √8760 = annualised. Sharpe = μ/σ scaled; Sortino uses downside-only vol; Calmar = annual return / max drawdown.

§6 · Risk metrics

Tail risk + drawdown · downside diagnostics
TAIL & DRAWDOWN RISKELEVATED · 95% VaR 0.75%
VaR₉₅ (h)0.754%5% prob of larger adverse h move
VaR₉₉ (h)1.147%1% prob · extreme-tail threshold
ES₉₅ (CVaR)1.011%expected loss given 5% tail event
MAX DRAWDOWN4.76%23h from peak to trough
TAIL-RISK LADDER (h losses)larger negative = worse · markers show severity
0 · no lossVaR₉₅−0.754%VaR₉₉−1.147%ES₉₅−1.011%worst tail ←→ zero loss
MAX DRAWDOWN PROFILEmoderate drawdown · 23h duration
PEAK1.23$
−4.76% drawdown over 23h
1.17$TROUGH
ES / VaR · TAIL THICKNESSmild tail heaviness|ES₉₅| / |VaR₉₅| = 1.34× (normal ≈ 1.25)
VaR₉₉ / VaR₉₅ · CONCENTRATIONmoderate extreme-tail concentrationratio = 1.52× (normal ≈ 1.41)
DRAWDOWN · CAPITAL DURATIONmoderate drawdownrecovery needed: +4.99% (compounding)
VaR = quantile loss · ES (CVaR) = expected loss conditional on tail · DD = peak-to-trough decline. Under normality ES₉₅/VaR₉₅ ≈ 1.25; ratio > 1.5 ⇒ fat-tail regime.

§7 · Technicals

RSI(14)
22.8 · oversold
Bollinger %B
0.092 · within band
Bollinger upper
$0.0123
Bollinger MA
$0.0120
Bollinger lower
$0.0117

§8 · Time-series structure

Regime & autocorrelation diagnostics
TIME-SERIES STRUCTUREREGIME: MEAN-REVERTING · ρ(1) -0.57 + ADF rejected
ρ(1) AUTOCORR-0.570negative · reversal
ρ(2) AUTOCORR+0.227lag-2 not significant
H · HURST EXPONENT0.945strongly persistent
OLS TREND · t-STAT-21.966significant @ α=0.05
HURST EXPONENT [0, 1]strongly persistent · H = 0.945
H = 0.945STRONGLY PERSISTENT
0
anti-persistent0.45
mean-reverting0.5
random walk0.55
persistent1
strongly trending
AUTOCORRELATION FUNCTION · ρ(k) for k=1..51 SIGNIFICANT LAG · k=1
k=1 ★-0.570k=2+0.227k=3-0.003k=4+0.003k=5-0.2440+1−1+0.41−0.41+ momentum (ρ > +0.41)− reversal (ρ < −0.41)noise (within band)±2/√n threshold
OLS TREND · t-STAT · [-5, +5]SIGNIFICANT @ 1% (|t|=21.97)
−5 reject−1.960 retain H₀+1.96+5 reject
REGIME CLASSIFICATIONMEAN-REVERTING · ρ(1) -0.57 + ADF rejectedfrom Hurst + ρ(1) joint diagnosis
PREDICTABILITY · score 1.00very high · strong structure|ρ(1)| + 2·|H − 0.5| heuristic
TREND SIGNIFICANCESIGNIFICANT @ 1% (|t|=21.97)α=0.05 critical |t|=1.96 · α=0.01 |t|=2.58
ρ(k) = lag-k sample autocorrelation · H = R/S Hurst exponent · t = OLS-trend t-statistic. Significance bands at ±2/√n approximate the 95% white-noise envelope. α=0.05 critical |t|=1.96; α=0.01 |t|=2.58.

§9 · Microstructure

24h volume (USD)
$141.86k
Open interest (USD)
$397.05k
Vol / OI (turnover)
0.36x
1h funding
-0.015301%
Funding (annualised)
-134.03%/yr

§10 · Position sizing

Continuous Kelly (μ/σ²)
-10.000× leverage · optimal log-utility leverage
Half-Kelly
-5.000× · industry-standard conservative
Quarter-Kelly
-2.500×

§11 · Hourly return heatmap

24-hour signed Δln-r grid · green = up · red = down
HOURLY RETURN HEATMAP · n=24 bars · best 0.46% · worst -1.26% · typical |Δ| 0.36%BEARISH SESSION -4.42%BEST+0.46%15hWORST-1.26%00hTYPICAL |Δ|0.36%mean absoluteCUMULATIVE-4.42%Σ signed ΔSTREAK↘ 3down-runASIA · 00-08 UTCμ -0.33% · Σ -2.64%EUROPE · 08-16 UTCμ -0.11% · Σ -0.84%US · 16-24 UTCμ -0.12% · Σ -0.94%CUMULATIVE Δ PATH · final -4.42%+0.46%-4.42%0.46% · 15h0.46% · 15h0.46%15h★ BEST-0.76% · 16h-0.76% · 16h-0.76%16h0.25% · 17h0.25% · 17h0.25%17h-0.40% · 18h-0.40% · 18h-0.40%18h-0.17% · 19h-0.17% · 19h-0.17%19h0.05% · 20h0.05% · 20h0.05%20h-0.15% · 21h-0.15% · 21h-0.15%21h-0.13% · 22h-0.13% · 22h-0.13%22h0.37% · 23h0.37% · 23h0.37%23h-1.26% · 00h-1.26% · 00h-1.26%00h▼ WORST0.13% · 01h0.13% · 01h0.13%01h-0.47% · 02h-0.47% · 02h-0.47%02h-0.23% · 03h-0.23% · 03h-0.23%03h-0.65% · 04h-0.65% · 04h-0.65%04h0.39% · 05h0.39% · 05h0.39%05h-0.15% · 06h-0.15% · 06h-0.15%06h-0.40% · 07h-0.40% · 07h-0.40%07h0.19% · 08h0.19% · 08h0.19%08h0.09% · 09h0.09% · 09h0.09%09h-0.56% · 10h-0.56% · 10h-0.56%10h0.16% · 11h0.16% · 11h0.16%11h-0.73% · 12h-0.73% · 12h-0.73%12h-0.20% · 13h-0.20% · 13h-0.20%13h-0.24% · 14h-0.24% · 14h-0.24%14hTIME PATTERNEurope-led (+-0.84%)RUNSup max 2 · down max 3BREADTH38% up · 63% down
9 up bars · 15 down · best 0.46% · worst -1.26% · typical |Δ| 0.359%

§12 · Equity curve & underwater drawdown

Cumulative compounded return + running peak-to-trough
EQUITY & DRAWDOWN ANALYSIS · n=25 barsLOSS WITH MODERATE DD (-4.34%)FINAL-4.34%MAX DD-4.78%RECOVERYONGOING · 23 barsMAX RUN-UP+0.46%UNDERWATER23/25 (92%)STREAK↘ 3EQUITY CURVE · end 0.9566 · peak 1.0046 · range [0.9566, 1.0046]1.00460.9566break-even = 1★ PEAK 1.0046UNDERWATER DRAWDOWN · max -4.78% · moderate0%-4.78%▼ TROUGH -4.78%TOP DRAWDOWN PERIODS · 1 total#1 -4.78%bar 3-25 · 23 bars · ONGOINGDD SEVERITYmoderate (max -4.78%)RECOVERYongoing · 23 barsTIME UNDER WATER92% of session · 23/25 bars
final equity 0.9566 (-4.34%) · max DD -4.78% · time-under-water 23/25 bars

§13 · Rolling-window statistics (w = 6 bars)

Rolling annualised Sharpe ratio · green positive · red negative
n=19 · +0 / −19 (0% positive) · μ=-40.29 · σ=14.25UNPROFITABLE STRATEGYLAST -65.92 (-1.80σ vs μ)65.9232.960.00-32.96-65.92μ = -40.29-20.13-20.13-51.99-51.99-38.69-38.69-26.05-26.05-36.62-36.62-27.08-27.08-41.34-41.34-43.61-43.61-56.41-56.41-55.17-55.17-39.61-39.61-64.60-64.60-34.57-34.57-21.14-21.14-18.76-18.76-33.49-33.49-48.34-48.34-42.02-42.02-65.92-65.92v > 0 · positivev < 0 · negativeμ mean lineμ ± σ bandlatest bar (outlined)
latest -65.922 · range [-65.92, -18.76] · μ -40.291 · positive Sharpe = excess-return-per-risk earned by buying-and-holding through this window
Rolling annualised volatility (%)
n=19 · μ=39.7200 · σ=10.7719 · range [20.7673, 55.2993] · R²=0.023▼ FALLING -21.03%σ EXTREME 27.12%LAST 32.836755.299346.666338.033329.400320.7673μ = 39.7200max 55.2993min 20.7673dataMA(3)OLS R²=0.02μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
latest 32.84% · range [20.77%, 55.30%] · μ 39.72% · σ̂ scaled to annualised (×√8760)
Rolling lag-1 autocorrelation ρ(1)
n=19 · +0 / −19 (0% positive) · μ=-0.467 · σ=0.176MEAN-REVERSIONLAST -0.737 (-1.53σ vs μ)0.7370.3680.000-0.368-0.737μ = -0.467-0.701-0.701-0.533-0.533-0.402-0.402-0.030-0.030-0.347-0.347-0.548-0.548-0.623-0.623-0.640-0.640-0.710-0.710-0.448-0.448-0.417-0.417-0.342-0.342-0.436-0.436-0.420-0.420-0.200-0.200-0.465-0.465-0.474-0.474-0.399-0.399-0.737-0.737v > 0 · positivev < 0 · negativeμ mean lineμ ± σ bandlatest bar (outlined)
latest -0.737 · |ρ| > 0.3 ⇒ regime with persistence (ρ > 0) or reversal (ρ < 0) · |ρ| ≤ 0.1 = consistent with random walk

§14 · Hypothesis tests (α = 0.05)

Formal inference at 5% significance
3 of 6 REJECT · mixed evidence3 reject·3 pass·α = 0.05
𝒩

Jarque-Bera

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Δln-r ~ Normal(μ, σ²)

STATISTIC
1.5647
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.4573
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainednormality not rejected
ρ

Ljung-Box(h=5)

REJECT H₀*

H₀: No serial autocorrelation up to lag 5

STATISTIC
12.2452
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.0314
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p < α · rejection zoneserial dependence detected
Ψ

Dickey-Fuller (τ_μ)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: p has a unit root (non-stationary)

STATISTIC
-0.2602
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.9243
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedrandom-walk behaviour (crit ≈ -2.86)
±

Wald-Wolfowitz runs

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Sign sequence of Δ is random

STATISTIC
1.6748
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.0940
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedsigns appear random (16 runs)
χ

KPSS (μ stationarity)

REJECT H₀**

H₀: p IS level-stationary

STATISTIC
0.9193
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.0037
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p < α · rejection zonenon-stationary (crit 0.463)
χ

Variance ratio q=3

REJECT H₀*

H₀: Δln-r is a random walk · VR = 1

STATISTIC
-2.0085
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.0446
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p < α · rejection zoneVR 0.389 → mean-reverting
Each row states an explicit null H₀, the test statistic, an approximated p-value, and the decision. REJECT means evidence against H₀. KPSS complements ADF (rejecting both ⇒ ambiguous; rejecting one ⇒ clean verdict).

§15 · Spectral analysis (DFT periodogram)

Power spectrum of Δln-r · ‖X̂(k)‖²/n
n=12 bins · noise floor μ=2.29e-5 · top T=2.00h (51.8%) · top-3 cover 79.7%STRONG CYCLE @ T≈2.0cumulative energy ↗ (1 bin above 2× noise)1.4e-41.1e-47.1e-53.6e-50.0e+0μ noise floor2× noise (significance)period 24.0 · power 9.27e-7 · 0.3% energyperiod 24.0 · power 9.27e-7 · 0.3% energyperiod 12.0 · power 9.27e-6 · 3.4% energyperiod 12.0 · power 9.27e-6 · 3.4% energyperiod 8.0 · power 5.20e-6 · 1.9% energyperiod 8.0 · power 5.20e-6 · 1.9% energyperiod 6.0 · power 5.67e-6 · 2.1% energyperiod 6.0 · power 5.67e-6 · 2.1% energyperiod 4.8 · power 8.08e-7 · 0.3% energyperiod 4.8 · power 8.08e-7 · 0.3% energyperiod 4.0 · power 6.54e-6 · 2.4% energyperiod 4.0 · power 6.54e-6 · 2.4% energyperiod 3.4 · power 1.66e-5 · 6.0% energyperiod 3.4 · power 1.66e-5 · 6.0% energyperiod 3.0 · power 4.47e-5 · 16.3% energyperiod 3.0 · power 4.47e-5 · 16.3% energyperiod 2.7 · power 9.26e-6 · 3.4% energyperiod 2.7 · power 9.26e-6 · 3.4% energyperiod 2.4 · power 3.20e-5 · 11.6% energyperiod 2.4 · power 3.20e-5 · 11.6% energyperiod 2.2 · power 1.48e-6 · 0.5% energyperiod 2.2 · power 1.48e-6 · 0.5% energyperiod 2.0 · power 1.42e-4 · 51.8% energyperiod 2.0 · power 1.42e-4 · 51.8% energy50% by T=2.0h#1 dominantT=2.00h#2T=3.00h#3T=2.40hT=2hT=3hT=4hT=6hT=8hT=12hT=16hT=24h← shorter cycle (high freq · Nyquist=½) · period T (bars per cycle) · longer cycle (low freq · 1/n) →#1 dominant#2 peak#3 peak> 2× noisenoiseμ floor2μ sig.cum energy
dominant period ≈ 2.00h (freq 0.500) · concentrates 51.8% of total energy · Σ|X̂|²/n = 2.749e-4

▸ Depth section using sovereign-store price series (5000 bars · effective 5257847 bars/year) — annualisation reflects native polling cadence, not upstream timeframes.

§16 · NOSTRADAMUS continuous quant — perp leverage & bootstrap MC

Continuous-price extension of the prediction-market quant module. Kelly growth on observed returns (Merton μ/σ² parametric vs argmax empirical), Monte-Carlo equity fan bootstrapped from the historical return distribution at quarter-Kelly leverage, and an annualized return decomposition. Sweep parameters in the simulator.

§17 · Continuous Kelly

Continuous-Kelly growth · g(f) = E[ln(1 + f·r)]
NO LONG EDGE · μ -0.000% per barparametric μ/σ² short edge (μ<0) · μ -0.000% · σ 0.02%
μ per barmean
-0.000%
σ per barvol
0.02%
Empirical f★argmax g(f)
0.00×
from observed distribution
Parametric f★μ/σ²
-61.09×
Merton continuous-time
Half-Kelly½ f★
0.00×
~⅔ of full growth, half the variance
Quarter-Kelly¼ f★
0.00×
industry default — survives model error
-0.00%0.02%0.05%0.07%0.10%0.0×1.6×3.2×4.8×6.4×8.0×leverage fraction fexpected log-growth per bar
g(f) empiricalf★ argmaxparametric f★
Maximum expected log-growth from leveraging the historical return distribution. Empirical f★ argmaxes the sample expectation; parametric f★ = μ/σ² is Merton's continuous-time optimum.

§18 · MC equity fan

Bootstrapped equity fan at 0.10× leverage
Median CAGR/bar -0.000% · annualized Sharpe -38.08400 paths × 720 bars · leverage 0.10× · bootstrap from 4999 observed returns
Sharpe / barμ/σ
-0.017
annualized -38.08
μ per barafter L
-0.000%
σ per barafter L
0.00%
VaR 95%5%
0.00%
per-bar worst-case
CVaR 95%ES
0.01%
mean tail loss
Max DD (median)MDD
-0.0%
0.95×0.97×0.99×1.01×1.03×1.05×0120240360480600720startbar #equity multiple
median25/75 band5/95 band
Median path with 25/75 and 5/95 percentile bands across 400 simulated careers. Bars resample with replacement from the observed return distribution — preserves fat tails the parametric model misses.

§19 · Annualized breakdown

Annualized return components
APR -1000% · APY -100% · Sharpe -34.65σ ann 57% · Sortino -22.74 · n 4999 · ⚠ capped (n=4999 too small to support 8760-bar projection)
-4158%-3313%-2468%-1622%-777%68%-1000.0%APR (simple)-100.0%APY (compound)56.7%Ann. vol σ-3465.2%Sharpe (ann)-2274.2%Sortino (ann)
Simple APR vs compounded APY · annualized volatility · risk-adjusted Sharpe and Sortino. All scaled by √(periods/yr).

§20 · GARCH(1,1) volatility band

GARCH(1,1) · conditional vol envelope (±2σ)
GARCH persistence α+β = 0.980· σ̂ₜ = 1.000% · long-run σ = 2.236%
0.0110.0110.0120.0120.0120.012t-4999t-4166t-3333t-2500t-1666t-833t-0

Persistence near 1 ⇒ vol clusters strongly (slow mean reversion). Long-run σ is the unconditional target the conditional vol orbits. The ±2σ band reflects time-varying scale, unlike a flat-vol band.

Time-varying volatility band fitted to the price series. Persistence α+β > 0.98 means vol shocks decay slowly — recent moves stay relevant.

§∞ · Provenance & attestation

Upstream
api.hyperliquid.xyz
Snapshot fetched
2026-06-14 14:32:00 UTC
Snapshot age
1.8s
History points
25 hourly closes
Page rendered
2026-06-14 14:32:02 UTC
Storage policy
no persistence — fetched on every request
SHA-256 attestation
2e51fca0c5e285df8221d78d2249a3bb9c9fbcef81f7c717aad9362923b1bfd9 · deterministic hash of the source snapshot — proves this page was rendered from this exact data
Open data licence
CC0 / public domain · free to mirror, syndicate, analyse

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Also see: /arb opportunities · RSS feed

Market depth

▸ live order book · Hyperliquid perp
Depth within 1bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Depth within 5bp
$235
bid $118 · ask $118
Depth within 10bp
$2.17K
bid $1.32K · ask $855
Depth within 50bp
$33.17K
bid $16.02K · ask $17.15K
Mid price
0.011712
(best bid + best ask) / 2
Spread
8.5bp
(bestAsk − bestBid) / mid
Imbalance (whole book)
+0.130
bid-heavy
Imbalance (top-5)
+0.009
bid-heavy top-of-book

Slippage scenarios

▸ live book walk · Hyperliquid perp

Simulating a market order at three notionals against the live book. Slippage = avg execution price vs. mid, in basis points. Worst fill = price of the deepest level touched. Live JSON: /api/asset/hl-MOVE/slippage?size=10000&side=buy

SideNotionalAvg fillSlippageWorst fillLevelsStatus
BUY$1.00K0.0117196.27bp0.0117244FILLED
BUY$10.00K0.01173418.58bp0.01175812FILLED
BUY$100.00K0.01176747.37bp0.01183520PARTIAL
SELL$1.00K0.0117065.18bp0.0117023FILLED
SELL$10.00K0.01169018.56bp0.01166811FILLED
SELL$100.00K0.01164953.91bp0.01159620PARTIAL

Funding carry

▸ SHORTS PAY · longs receive
Hourly funding
-1.530e-4
-0.01530% / hr
Annualised APR
-134.126%
hourly · 24 · 365.25
Long: days to 1% carry
2.7d
longs receive
Short: days to 1% carry
2.7d
shorts pay
SideDirectionAnnualised carryDays → 1%Days → 10%
LONGRECEIVE134.126%2.7d27.2d
SHORTPAY-134.126%2.7d27.2d

/api/asset/hl-MOVE/carry · same metrics, JSON

Volume profile

▸ real volume · Hyperliquid candlesstep $ 1 · 25 records
Price binBarsVolumeDistribution
$0.000000–$1.0000★25$11.92M

★ POC = Point of Control (highest-volume bin). Live JSON: /api/asset/hl-MOVE/volprofile?priceStep=1

Order flow

▸ ASK-LEAN · -0.559 · Hyperliquid candles
Bars (buy / sell)
9 / 15
1 unclassified
Buy weight
$2.58M
real volume
Sell weight
$9.14M
real volume
Net delta
$6.56M
sellers net
Imbalance
-55.94%
(buy − sell) / (buy + sell)
Toxicity (VPIN)
55.9%
one-sided / toxic
Impact (|Δp|/vol)
—
needs real volume

Sparkline = cumulative delta over the 25-record window./api/asset/hl-MOVE/flow?rollingWindow=30

Cascade clusters

▸ DOWN · 5 found · deepest 2.45% · Hyperliquid candles

Price-only proxy for forced-unwind clusters. No exchange liquidation feed is wired — read each row as a candidate event, not a confirmed liquidation.

#WindowDurationPeak → TroughDrawdownBars
#12026-06-14 00:00:00Z4.0h0.012186→0.0118872.454%5
#22026-06-14 12:00:00Z2.0h0.011902→0.0117161.563%3
#32026-06-13 16:00:00Z4.0h0.012301→0.0121691.073%5

/api/asset/hl-MOVE/cascades?windowMs=10800000&minDrawdownPct=0.005 · full list + parameters in JSON

Risk metrics

▸ sovereign store · 5,000 barsperiods/year ≈ 5.26M
Realized vol (annualised)
56.72%
σ per bar = 0.000247
Mean return (annualised)
-1965.50%
μ per bar = -0.000004
Sharpe (rf=0)
-34.65
annualised; risk-free assumed zero
Max drawdown
2.06%
peak 0.01 → trough 0.01 over 4834 bars

/api/asset/hl-MOVE/risk · same metrics, JSON