HYPERLIQUID · PERPETUAL FUTURES

MEGA

MEGA-USD perpetual · 24/7 trading on Hyperliquid

▸ Advanced metrics · M2M bundle

hyperliquid · perp-mega · fresh · feed 3s old
24h sparkline · 60 pts▲ 14.17%
realized vol (ann.)
273.05%
max drawdown
6.81%
sharpe
-17.88
ulcer index
3.52%
RMS drawdown
pain index
3.07%
mean drawdown
mod. VaR 95%
0.00%
Cornish-Fisher
martin ratio
-1388.70
ret / ulcer
CDaR 95%
5.82%
cond. drawdown
gain/pain
0.97
Σgain / Σ|loss|
sterling
-838.32
ret / CDaR
omega (θ=0)
0.97
upside/downside
roll spread
0.0 bps
implied (price-only)
bars used
2000
store
spread
—
24h Δ
14.17%
flow lean
—
carry
longs_pay
10.95%
signalNEUTRALconfidence 30%
  • 24h change +14.17%
  • funding: longs pay — perp shorts get paid to wait
Same bundle via M2M API: /api/m2m/hl-MEGA/bundle · venue execution: hyperliquid →
LIVEPOLL0SRCFRESH3.3s⏱--:--:-- UTC8NEXT8.0sUP0s--:--HIST0/30
▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC FRESH·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC FRESH·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·
MARK · live
$0.060
24h Δ · live
14.17%
24h vol · live
$12.4M
MEGA · live 24h price
n=25 · μ=0.0612 · σ=0.0038 · range [0.0532, 0.0667] · R²=0.251▲ RISING +12.77%σ HIGH 6.27%LAST 0.06000.06670.06330.06000.05660.0532μ = 0.0612max 0.0667min 0.0532dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.25μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxminlive endpoint
25 closes · last $0.06
Funding direction · live
Long fee 48.1%Short fee 51.9%SHORT FEE51.9%
Σ = 0.0%
Σ-sides total = 0.00% (100.00pp arb gap)
H(p) entropy = 0.999 / 1.00 bits (100%) · max uncertainty (~50/50)
Long fee
48.1%▬ +0.00pp
Short fee
51.9%▬ +0.00pp
1h funding 0.001250% · longs pay
Hourly contract volume · live
n=25 · Σ=204,777,729 · μ=8191109.2 · σ=6533968.3 · CV=0.80FADING -62% h/hcumulative energy ↗ · 50% by h=906,922,90013,845,80020,768,69927,691,599μ = 819110927,691,59950%h1h5h9h13h17h21h25#1 peak#2-3> μactivequietμ linecum energy
peak 27691599 contracts
Live numerics · pulse on poll
LIVE NUMERICS9 metrics·POLL 0
⏱snapshot age
3.3s
$mark $
$0.06
$mid $
$0.06
◉prev-day close
$0.0526
Δ24h Δ %
+14.173%
$24h vol $
$12.38M
◐open interest $
$7.34M
%funding (1h)
0.001250%
%funding (yr)
+10.95%/yr

§1 · 24h time-series

Close price · hourly
n=25 · μ=0.0612 · σ=0.0038 · range [0.0532, 0.0667] · R²=0.251▲ RISING +12.77%σ HIGH 6.27%LAST 0.06000.06670.06330.06000.05660.0532μ = 0.0612max 0.0667min 0.0532dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.25μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
mark $0.0600 · 24h 14.17% · range $[0.0532, 0.0667]
OHLC candles · hourly
n=25 · up 14 · down 11 (56% up) · range [0.0520, 0.0681] · σ=0.0038 · CV=0.06 · bodyµ=44%BULLISH +14.24%CLOSE 0.0600 vs OPEN 0.0525 (+14.24%)&#9650; CLOSE 0.06000.06810.06410.06000.05600.0520μ close = 0.0612O0.053 H0.054 L0.052 C0.053 (+1.31%)O0.053 H0.054 L0.052 C0.053 (+1.31%)O0.053 H0.057 L0.053 C0.055 (+4.19%)O0.053 H0.057 L0.053 C0.055 (+4.19%)O0.056 H0.057 L0.054 C0.056 (+0.59%)O0.056 H0.057 L0.054 C0.056 (+0.59%)O0.056 H0.057 L0.055 C0.055 (-0.73%)O0.056 H0.057 L0.055 C0.055 (-0.73%)O0.055 H0.056 L0.055 C0.056 (+0.80%)O0.055 H0.056 L0.055 C0.056 (+0.80%)O0.056 H0.061 L0.056 C0.059 (+5.83%)O0.056 H0.061 L0.056 C0.059 (+5.83%)O0.059 H0.061 L0.058 C0.060 (+1.02%)O0.059 H0.061 L0.058 C0.060 (+1.02%)O0.060 H0.063 L0.059 C0.063 (+5.23%)O0.060 H0.063 L0.059 C0.063 (+5.23%)O0.063 H0.066 L0.062 C0.065 (+3.12%)O0.063 H0.066 L0.062 C0.065 (+3.12%)O0.065 H0.066 L0.062 C0.063 (-3.54%)O0.065 H0.066 L0.062 C0.063 (-3.54%)6.0%O0.063 H0.068 L0.062 C0.066 (+6.03%)O0.063 H0.068 L0.062 C0.066 (+6.03%)O0.066 H0.068 L0.063 C0.067 (+0.48%)O0.066 H0.068 L0.063 C0.067 (+0.48%)O0.067 H0.067 L0.064 C0.064 (-3.68%)O0.067 H0.067 L0.064 C0.064 (-3.68%)O0.064 H0.065 L0.059 C0.061 (-5.42%)O0.064 H0.065 L0.059 C0.061 (-5.42%)O0.061 H0.061 L0.060 C0.060 (-2.08%)O0.061 H0.061 L0.060 C0.060 (-2.08%)O0.060 H0.064 L0.058 C0.062 (+4.94%)O0.060 H0.064 L0.058 C0.062 (+4.94%)O0.063 H0.067 L0.063 C0.066 (+5.56%)O0.063 H0.067 L0.063 C0.066 (+5.56%)O0.066 H0.067 L0.064 C0.066 (+0.61%)O0.066 H0.067 L0.064 C0.066 (+0.61%)O0.066 H0.066 L0.064 C0.065 (-1.48%)O0.066 H0.066 L0.064 C0.065 (-1.48%)O0.065 H0.067 L0.062 C0.062 (-5.07%)O0.065 H0.067 L0.062 C0.062 (-5.07%)O0.062 H0.063 L0.060 C0.061 (-1.60%)O0.062 H0.063 L0.060 C0.061 (-1.60%)O0.061 H0.063 L0.060 C0.061 (-0.09%)O0.061 H0.063 L0.060 C0.061 (-0.09%)O0.061 H0.063 L0.060 C0.061 (+0.18%)O0.061 H0.063 L0.060 C0.061 (+0.18%)O0.061 H0.062 L0.059 C0.061 (-0.98%)O0.061 H0.062 L0.059 C0.061 (-0.98%)O0.061 H0.061 L0.060 C0.060 (-1.35%)O0.061 H0.061 L0.060 C0.060 (-1.35%)#1#5#9#13#17#21#25up bar (C≥O)down bar (C<O)MA(5) closeμ closedoji (~no body)biggest body
25 bars
Hourly volume (base units)
n=25 · Σ=204,777,729 · μ=8191109.2 · σ=6533968.3 · CV=0.80FADING -62% h/hcumulative energy &nearr; · 50% by h=906,922,90013,845,80020,768,69927,691,599μ = 81911094,353,777 · 15.7% peak4,353,777 · 15.7% peak12,332,564 · 44.5% peak12,332,564 · 44.5% peak14,090,503 · 50.9% peak14,090,503 · 50.9% peak9,652,033 · 34.9% peak9,652,033 · 34.9% peak2,928,402 · 10.6% peak2,928,402 · 10.6% peak27,691,59927,691,599 · 100.0% peak27,691,599 · 100.0% peak8,568,515 · 30.9% peak8,568,515 · 30.9% peak9,167,390 · 33.1% peak9,167,390 · 33.1% peak14,118,623 · 51.0% peak14,118,623 · 51.0% peak18,103,808 · 65.4% peak18,103,808 · 65.4% peak21,058,774 · 76.0% peak21,058,774 · 76.0% peak6,850,240 · 24.7% peak6,850,240 · 24.7% peak4,785,411 · 17.3% peak4,785,411 · 17.3% peak7,675,536 · 27.7% peak7,675,536 · 27.7% peak2,148,693 · 7.8% peak2,148,693 · 7.8% peak5,143,781 · 18.6% peak5,143,781 · 18.6% peak3,453,432 · 12.5% peak3,453,432 · 12.5% peak3,658,325 · 13.2% peak3,658,325 · 13.2% peak2,378,263 · 8.6% peak2,378,263 · 8.6% peak8,092,271 · 29.2% peak8,092,271 · 29.2% peak5,106,713 · 18.4% peak5,106,713 · 18.4% peak2,589,578 · 9.4% peak2,589,578 · 9.4% peak5,299,226 · 19.1% peak5,299,226 · 19.1% peak4,067,271 · 14.7% peak4,067,271 · 14.7% peak1,463,001 · 5.3% peak1,463,001 · 5.3% peak50%#1#5#9#13#17#21#25#1 peak#2-3> μactivequietμ linecum energy
Σ vol 204777729 · peak 27691599 · CV 0.80

§2 · Returns distribution (log-returns)

Histogram of rₜ = ln(pₜ/pₜ₋₁)
n=24 · 12 bins · μ=0.0049 · σ=0.0319 · skew=0.08 (symmetric) · kurt=-0.95 (mesokurtic)54310 2-515.21bpbin -515.21bp · n=2 · 40.0% peakbin -515.21bp · n=2 · 40.0% peak-420.51bp 2-325.81bpbin -325.81bp · n=2 · 40.0% peakbin -325.81bp · n=2 · 40.0% peak 1-231.11bpbin -231.11bp · n=1 · 20.0% peakbin -231.11bp · n=1 · 20.0% peak 4-136.41bpbin -136.41bp · n=4 · 80.0% peakbin -136.41bp · n=4 · 80.0% peak 2-41.71bpbin -41.71bp · n=2 · 40.0% peakbin -41.71bp · n=2 · 40.0% peak 552.98bpbin 52.98bp · n=5 · 100.0% peakbin 52.98bp · n=5 · 100.0% peak 1147.68bpbin 147.68bp · n=1 · 20.0% peakbin 147.68bp · n=1 · 20.0% peak242.38bp 1337.08bpbin 337.08bp · n=1 · 20.0% peakbin 337.08bp · n=1 · 20.0% peak 2431.78bpbin 431.78bp · n=2 · 40.0% peakbin 431.78bp · n=2 · 40.0% peak 4526.48bpbin 526.48bp · n=4 · 80.0% peakbin 526.48bp · n=4 · 80.0% peakμΔ < 0 · loss barsΔ ≈ 0 · flatΔ > 0 · gain barsN(μ,σ²) referenceμ line · ±σ band shaded
n=24 · positive 13 · negative 11
Q-Q plot · standardised rₜ vs N(0,1)
n=24 · skew=0.09 · kurt=-0.88 · near 18 / mid 6 / far 0 · OLS slope=1.00 intercept=-0.00MATCHES NORMAL · WELL-BEHAVEDUPPER TAIL NORMALLOWER TAIL NORMAL-3σ-3σ-2σ-2σ-1σ-1σ+0σ+0σ+1σ+1σ+2σ+2σ+3σ+3σsample ↓marginal: sample bars + theoretical N(0,1) curve →theoretical Φ⁻¹(p) →↑ sample z-quantile|Δ| < 0.3σ · on the line|Δ| < 1σ · moderate|Δ| ≥ 1σ · outliery = x refOLS fit

§3 · Spot quote

Mark price
$0.06
Mid price
$0.06
24h change
+14.17%
Mark–mid spread
1.83 bps
Prev-day close
$0.0526

§4 · Sample moments (prices)

Descriptive statistics · 5-number summary · shape diagnostics
SAMPLE MOMENTS · N=25APPROXIMATELY NORMAL · WELL-BEHAVED
μ MEAN0.0612$95% CI: [0.0597$, 0.0627$]
σ STD DEV0.0038$σ² = 0.147×10⁻⁴ · CV = 6.27%
med MEDIAN0.0611$Q₁ 0.0596$ · Q₃ 0.0644$
FIVE-NUMBER SUMMARY · BOX PLOTrange 0.0135$ · IQR 0.0048$ (1.349σ→0.0052$)
min 0.0532$Q₁ 0.0596$med 0.0611$Q₃ 0.0644$max 0.0667$μ
SKEWNESS · G₁-0.339approximately symmetric
−3−10+1+3
EXCESS KURTOSIS · G₂-0.906mesokurtic · normal-like
−30+2+4+6
μ ↔ median≈ equal · symmetric|μ−med| / σ = 0.03
σ × 1.349 ↔ IQRconsistent with normalratio = 1.08
range ↔ σconcentrated (range < 4σ)range / σ = 3.51
μ = mean · σ = standard deviation · CV = coefficient of variation. Skew (G₁): >0 right-skewed. Kurt (G₂, excess): >0 leptokurtic. 95% CI = μ ± 1.96·SE.

§5 · Returns analytics (log-returns)

Risk-adjusted performance · log-returns
RETURNS · RISK-ADJUSTEDEXCEPTIONAL EDGE · SR=13.81
μᵣ MEAN / h+0.500657%drift is positive per h · |μ|/σ = 0.148
σᵣ STD / h3.393335%σ²ᵣ = 11.515×10⁻⁴ · CV = 6.78×
σ ANNUALISED317.60%/yrscaled by √8760 (hourly→yearly) · 3.393%/h base
RISK-ADJUSTED PERFORMANCEhigher = better edge per unit risk
SHARPE (annualised)13.81excellent · top-decile
-2-10+1+2+3+4
SORTINO (annualised)15.94strong downside-adjusted
-2-10+1+2+3+4
CALMAR (return / max-DD)100.00exceptional DD control
-20+2+4+6
RETURN-DISTRIBUTION SHAPE|skew| < 0.5 ≈ symmetric · |kurt| < 1 ≈ mesokurtic
SKEWNESS · G₁0.10approximately symmetric
-3-10+1+3
EXCESS KURTOSIS · G₂-0.80mesokurtic · normal-like tails
-30+2+4+6
SORTINO vs SHARPEdownside drag · negatively skewedSoR / SR = 1.15
CALMAR · DD CONTROLdrawdown control exceptionalCR = 100.00
EXPECTED EDGE+4385.76%/yr driftμ × 8760 = annualised expectation
rₜ = ln(pₜ/pₜ₋₁). σ × √8760 = annualised. Sharpe = μ/σ scaled; Sortino uses downside-only vol; Calmar = annual return / max drawdown.

§6 · Risk metrics

Tail risk + drawdown · downside diagnostics
TAIL & DRAWDOWN RISKEXTREME · 95% VaR 4.84%
VaR₉₅ (h)4.838%5% prob of larger adverse h move
VaR₉₉ (h)5.495%1% prob · extreme-tail threshold
ES₉₅ (CVaR)5.341%expected loss given 5% tail event
MAX DRAWDOWN10.68%3h from peak to trough
TAIL-RISK LADDER (h losses)larger negative = worse · markers show severity
0 · no lossVaR₉₅−4.838%VaR₉₉−5.495%ES₉₅−5.341%worst tail ←→ zero loss
MAX DRAWDOWN PROFILEsignificant drawdown · 3h duration
PEAK6.67$
−10.68% drawdown over 3h
5.96$TROUGH
ES / VaR · TAIL THICKNESSmild tail heaviness|ES₉₅| / |VaR₉₅| = 1.10× (normal ≈ 1.25)
VaR₉₉ / VaR₉₅ · CONCENTRATIONuniform tailratio = 1.14× (normal ≈ 1.41)
DRAWDOWN · CAPITAL DURATIONsignificant drawdownrecovery needed: +11.96% (compounding)
VaR = quantile loss · ES (CVaR) = expected loss conditional on tail · DD = peak-to-trough decline. Under normality ES₉₅/VaR₉₅ ≈ 1.25; ratio > 1.5 ⇒ fat-tail regime.

§7 · Technicals

RSI(14)
54.7 · neutral
Bollinger %B
0.235 · within band
Bollinger upper
$0.0678
Bollinger MA
$0.0627
Bollinger lower
$0.0576

§8 · Time-series structure

Regime & autocorrelation diagnostics
TIME-SERIES STRUCTUREREGIME: TRENDING · variance ratio > 1
ρ(1) AUTOCORR+0.245within white-noise band
ρ(2) AUTOCORR-0.150lag-2 not significant
H · HURST EXPONENT1.086strongly persistent
OLS TREND · t-STAT+2.780significant @ α=0.05
HURST EXPONENT [0, 1]strongly persistent · H = 1.086
H = 1.086STRONGLY PERSISTENT
0
anti-persistent0.45
mean-reverting0.5
random walk0.55
persistent1
strongly trending
AUTOCORRELATION FUNCTION · ρ(k) for k=1..5WHITE NOISE · no significant lags
k=1+0.245k=2-0.150k=3-0.212k=4-0.159k=5+0.1950+1−1+0.41−0.41+ momentum (ρ > +0.41)− reversal (ρ < −0.41)noise (within band)±2/√n threshold
OLS TREND · t-STAT · [-5, +5]SIGNIFICANT @ 1% (|t|=2.78)
−5 reject−1.960 retain H₀+1.96+5 reject
REGIME CLASSIFICATIONTRENDING · variance ratio > 1from Hurst + ρ(1) joint diagnosis
PREDICTABILITY · score 1.00very high · strong structure|ρ(1)| + 2·|H − 0.5| heuristic
TREND SIGNIFICANCESIGNIFICANT @ 1% (|t|=2.78)α=0.05 critical |t|=1.96 · α=0.01 |t|=2.58
ρ(k) = lag-k sample autocorrelation · H = R/S Hurst exponent · t = OLS-trend t-statistic. Significance bands at ±2/√n approximate the 95% white-noise envelope. α=0.05 critical |t|=1.96; α=0.01 |t|=2.58.

§9 · Microstructure

24h volume (USD)
$12.38M
Open interest (USD)
$7.34M
Vol / OI (turnover)
1.69x
1h funding
0.001250%
Funding (annualised)
+10.95%/yr

§10 · Position sizing

Continuous Kelly (μ/σ²)
4.348× leverage · optimal log-utility leverage
Half-Kelly
2.174× · industry-standard conservative
Quarter-Kelly
1.087×

§11 · Hourly return heatmap

24-hour signed Δln-r grid · green = up · red = down
HOURLY RETURN HEATMAP · n=24 bars · best 5.74% · worst -5.63% · typical |Δ| 2.67%MILD BULLISH +12.02%BEST+5.74%19hWORST-5.63%03hTYPICAL |Δ|2.67%mean absoluteCUMULATIVE+12.02%Σ signed ΔSTREAK↘ 2down-runASIA · 00-08 UTCμ +0.69% · Σ +5.51%EUROPE · 08-16 UTCμ -0.73% · Σ -5.83%US · 16-24 UTCμ +1.54% · Σ +12.34%CUMULATIVE Δ PATH · final +12.02%+22.55%0.00%4.10% · 15h4.10% · 15h4.10%15h0.73% · 16h0.73% · 16h0.73%16h-0.70% · 17h-0.70% · 17h-0.70%17h0.69% · 18h0.69% · 18h0.69%18h5.74% · 19h5.74% · 19h5.74%19h★ BEST1.11% · 20h1.11% · 20h1.11%20h5.16% · 21h5.16% · 21h5.16%21h3.22% · 22h3.22% · 22h3.22%22h-3.60% · 23h-3.60% · 23h-3.60%23h5.71% · 00h5.71% · 00h5.71%00h0.39% · 01h0.39% · 01h0.39%01h-3.52% · 02h-3.52% · 02h-3.52%02h-5.63% · 03h-5.63% · 03h-5.63%03h▼ WORST-2.15% · 04h-2.15% · 04h-2.15%04h4.77% · 05h4.77% · 05h4.77%05h5.57% · 06h5.57% · 06h5.57%06h0.36% · 07h0.36% · 07h0.36%07h-1.49% · 08h-1.49% · 08h-1.49%08h-5.06% · 09h-5.06% · 09h-5.06%09h-1.66% · 10h-1.66% · 10h-1.66%10h-0.04% · 11h-0.04% · 11h-0.04%11h0.45% · 12h0.45% · 12h0.45%12h-0.91% · 13h-0.91% · 13h-0.91%13h-1.22% · 14h-1.22% · 14h-1.22%14hTIME PATTERNUS-led (+12.34%)RUNSup max 5 · down max 4BREADTH54% up · 46% down
13 up bars · 11 down · best 5.74% · worst -5.63% · typical |Δ| 2.666%

§12 · Equity curve & underwater drawdown

Cumulative compounded return + running peak-to-trough
EQUITY & DRAWDOWN ANALYSIS · n=25 barsPROFITABLE +11.27%FINAL+11.27%MAX DD-10.90%RECOVERYONGOING · 13 barsMAX RUN-UP+24.47%UNDERWATER16/25 (64%)STREAK↘ 2EQUITY CURVE · end 1.1127 · peak 1.2447 · range [1.0000, 1.2447]1.24471.0000break-even = 1★ PEAK 1.2447UNDERWATER DRAWDOWN · max -10.90% · significant0%-10.90%▼ TROUGH -10.90%TOP DRAWDOWN PERIODS · 3 total#1 -10.90%bar 13-25 · 13 bars · ONGOING#2 -3.60%bar 10-10 · 1 bars · recovered#3 -0.70%bar 4-5 · 2 bars · recoveredDD SEVERITYsignificant (max -10.90%)RECOVERYongoing · 13 barsTIME UNDER WATER64% of session · 16/25 bars
final equity 1.1127 (11.27%) · max DD -10.90% · time-under-water 16/25 bars

§13 · Rolling-window statistics (w = 6 bars)

Rolling annualised Sharpe ratio · green positive · red negative
n=19 · +10 / −9 (53% positive) · μ=11.56 · σ=49.13MIXED EDGELAST -67.56 (-1.61σ vs μ)91.7545.880.00-45.88-91.75μ = 11.5674.6074.6074.7674.7691.7591.7555.7755.7774.0674.0653.9753.9727.6527.65-12.05-12.05-33.96-33.96-1.42-1.42-1.95-1.95-2.06-2.065.195.197.537.539.499.49-10.43-10.43-55.81-55.81-69.80-69.80-67.56-67.56v > 0 · positivev < 0 · negativeμ mean lineμ ± σ bandlatest bar (outlined)
latest -67.563 · range [-69.80, 91.75] · μ 11.564 · positive Sharpe = excess-return-per-risk earned by buying-and-holding through this window
Rolling annualised volatility (%)
n=19 · μ=327.3997 · σ=87.5174 · range [182.1669, 427.3151] · R²=0.006▼ FALLING -20.16%σ EXTREME 26.73%LAST 182.3491427.3151366.0280304.7410243.4539182.1669μ = 327.3997max 427.3151min 182.1669dataMA(3)OLS R²=0.01μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
latest 182.35% · range [182.17%, 427.32%] · μ 327.40% · σ̂ scaled to annualised (×√8760)
Rolling lag-1 autocorrelation ρ(1)
n=19 · +11 / −8 (58% positive) · μ=0.058 · σ=0.311CLOSE TO MARTINGALELAST 0.218 (+0.51σ vs μ)0.5430.2710.000-0.271-0.543μ = 0.058-0.134-0.134-0.111-0.111-0.192-0.192-0.242-0.242-0.432-0.432-0.543-0.543-0.270-0.270-0.127-0.1270.0680.0680.2090.2090.4510.4510.4920.4920.3020.3020.2590.2590.5280.5280.2350.2350.1700.1700.2290.2290.2180.218v > 0 · positivev < 0 · negativeμ mean lineμ ± σ bandlatest bar (outlined)
latest 0.218 · |ρ| > 0.3 ⇒ regime with persistence (ρ > 0) or reversal (ρ < 0) · |ρ| ≤ 0.1 = consistent with random walk

§14 · Hypothesis tests (α = 0.05)

Formal inference at 5% significance
ALL TESTS PASS · data behaves as nominal0 reject·6 pass·α = 0.05
𝒩

Jarque-Bera

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Δln-r ~ Normal(μ, σ²)

STATISTIC
0.6787
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.7122
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainednormality not rejected
ρ

Ljung-Box(h=5)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: No serial autocorrelation up to lag 5

STATISTIC
5.6437
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.3423
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedconsistent with white noise
Ψ

Dickey-Fuller (τ_μ)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: p has a unit root (non-stationary)

STATISTIC
-2.2975
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.1802
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedrandom-walk behaviour (crit ≈ -2.86)
±

Wald-Wolfowitz runs

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Sign sequence of Δ is random

STATISTIC
-1.2264
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.2201
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedsigns appear random (10 runs)
χ

KPSS (μ stationarity)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: p IS level-stationary

STATISTIC
0.3981
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.0780
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedstationary not rejected (crit 0.463)
χ

Variance ratio q=3

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Δln-r is a random walk · VR = 1

STATISTIC
0.9441
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.3451
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedVR 1.287 ≈ 1 (RW behaviour)
Each row states an explicit null H₀, the test statistic, an approximated p-value, and the decision. REJECT means evidence against H₀. KPSS complements ADF (rejecting both ⇒ ambiguous; rejecting one ⇒ clean verdict).

§15 · Spectral analysis (DFT periodogram)

Power spectrum of Δln-r · ‖X̂(k)‖²/n
n=12 bins · noise floor μ=1.10e-3 · top T=4.80h (24.3%) · top-3 cover 52.9%2 SIGNIFICANT CYCLEScumulative energy ↗ (2 bins above 2× noise)3.2e-32.4e-31.6e-38.0e-40.0e+0μ noise floor2× noise (significance)period 24.0 · power 1.38e-3 · 10.4% energyperiod 24.0 · power 1.38e-3 · 10.4% energyperiod 12.0 · power 9.56e-4 · 7.2% energyperiod 12.0 · power 9.56e-4 · 7.2% energyperiod 8.0 · power 2.23e-3 · 16.8% energyperiod 8.0 · power 2.23e-3 · 16.8% energyperiod 6.0 · power 1.56e-3 · 11.8% energyperiod 6.0 · power 1.56e-3 · 11.8% energyperiod 4.8 · power 3.22e-3 · 24.3% energyperiod 4.8 · power 3.22e-3 · 24.3% energyperiod 4.0 · power 3.81e-5 · 0.3% energyperiod 4.0 · power 3.81e-5 · 0.3% energyperiod 3.4 · power 8.66e-4 · 6.5% energyperiod 3.4 · power 8.66e-4 · 6.5% energyperiod 3.0 · power 7.97e-4 · 6.0% energyperiod 3.0 · power 7.97e-4 · 6.0% energyperiod 2.7 · power 9.64e-4 · 7.3% energyperiod 2.7 · power 9.64e-4 · 7.3% energyperiod 2.4 · power 6.80e-4 · 5.1% energyperiod 2.4 · power 6.80e-4 · 5.1% energyperiod 2.2 · power 5.30e-4 · 4.0% energyperiod 2.2 · power 5.30e-4 · 4.0% energyperiod 2.0 · power 3.39e-5 · 0.3% energyperiod 2.0 · power 3.39e-5 · 0.3% energy50% by T=4.8h#1 dominantT=4.80h#2T=8.00h#3T=6.00hT=2hT=3hT=4hT=6hT=8hT=12hT=16hT=24h← shorter cycle (high freq · Nyquist=½) · period T (bars per cycle) · longer cycle (low freq · 1/n) →#1 dominant#2 peak#3 peak> 2× noisenoiseμ floor2μ sig.cum energy
dominant period ≈ 4.80h (freq 0.208) · concentrates 24.3% of total energy · Σ|X̂|²/n = 1.326e-2

▸ Depth section using sovereign-store price series (5000 bars · effective 5257847 bars/year) — annualisation reflects native polling cadence, not upstream timeframes.

§16 · NOSTRADAMUS continuous quant — perp leverage & bootstrap MC

Continuous-price extension of the prediction-market quant module. Kelly growth on observed returns (Merton μ/σ² parametric vs argmax empirical), Monte-Carlo equity fan bootstrapped from the historical return distribution at quarter-Kelly leverage, and an annualized return decomposition. Sweep parameters in the simulator.

§17 · Continuous Kelly

Continuous-Kelly growth · g(f) = E[ln(1 + f·r)]
NO LONG EDGE · μ -0.001% per barparametric μ/σ² -5.52× · μ -0.001% · σ 0.14%
μ per barmean
-0.001%
σ per barvol
0.14%
Empirical f★argmax g(f)
0.00×
from observed distribution
Parametric f★μ/σ²
-5.52×
Merton continuous-time
Half-Kelly½ f★
0.00×
~⅔ of full growth, half the variance
Quarter-Kelly¼ f★
0.00×
industry default — survives model error
-0.02%0.01%0.04%0.07%0.10%0.0×1.6×3.2×4.8×6.4×8.0×leverage fraction fexpected log-growth per bar
g(f) empiricalf★ argmaxparametric f★
Maximum expected log-growth from leveraging the historical return distribution. Empirical f★ argmaxes the sample expectation; parametric f★ = μ/σ² is Merton's continuous-time optimum.

§18 · MC equity fan

Bootstrapped equity fan at 0.10× leverage
Median CAGR/bar -0.000% · annualized Sharpe -19.55400 paths × 720 bars · leverage 0.10× · bootstrap from 4999 observed returns
Sharpe / barμ/σ
-0.009
annualized -19.55
μ per barafter L
-0.000%
σ per barafter L
0.01%
VaR 95%5%
0.02%
per-bar worst-case
CVaR 95%ES
0.03%
mean tail loss
Max DD (median)MDD
-0.1%
0.94×0.97×0.99×1.01×1.03×1.06×0120240360480600720startbar #equity multiple
median25/75 band5/95 band
Median path with 25/75 and 5/95 percentile bands across 400 simulated careers. Bars resample with replacement from the observed return distribution — preserves fat tails the parametric model misses.

§19 · Annualized breakdown

Annualized return components
APR -1000% · APY -100% · Sharpe -17.73σ ann 321% · Sortino -18.31 · n 4999 · ⚠ capped (n=4999 too small to support 8760-bar projection)
-2198%-1681%-1164%-648%-131%385%-1000.0%APR (simple)-100.0%APY (compound)321.0%Ann. vol σ-1772.8%Sharpe (ann)-1831.3%Sortino (ann)
Simple APR vs compounded APY · annualized volatility · risk-adjusted Sharpe and Sortino. All scaled by √(periods/yr).

§20 · GARCH(1,1) volatility band

GARCH(1,1) · conditional vol envelope (±2σ)
GARCH persistence α+β = 0.980· σ̂ₜ = 1.001% · long-run σ = 2.236%
0.0570.0590.0620.0640.0670.070t-4999t-4166t-3333t-2500t-1666t-833t-0

Persistence near 1 ⇒ vol clusters strongly (slow mean reversion). Long-run σ is the unconditional target the conditional vol orbits. The ±2σ band reflects time-varying scale, unlike a flat-vol band.

Time-varying volatility band fitted to the price series. Persistence α+β > 0.98 means vol shocks decay slowly — recent moves stay relevant.

§∞ · Provenance & attestation

Upstream
api.hyperliquid.xyz
Snapshot fetched
2026-06-14 14:29:48 UTC
Snapshot age
3.3s
History points
25 hourly closes
Page rendered
2026-06-14 14:29:52 UTC
Storage policy
no persistence — fetched on every request
SHA-256 attestation
55dadfb00614a913dde1944ebccabdedc0aaa7ea239bac1e0daae6750ddcab20 · deterministic hash of the source snapshot — proves this page was rendered from this exact data
Open data licence
CC0 / public domain · free to mirror, syndicate, analyse

§∞-2 · Related markets · explore more

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Also see: /arb opportunities · RSS feed

Market depth

▸ live order book · Hyperliquid perp
Depth within 1bp
$1.16K
bid $170 · ask $995
Depth within 5bp
$3.50K
bid $827 · ask $2.67K
Depth within 10bp
$7.56K
bid $2.85K · ask $4.71K
Depth within 50bp
$43.44K
bid $22.32K · ask $21.12K
Mid price
0.060023
(best bid + best ask) / 2
Spread
0.7bp
(bestAsk − bestBid) / mid
Imbalance (whole book)
+0.029
bid-heavy
Imbalance (top-5)
-0.244
ask-heavy top-of-book

Slippage scenarios

▸ live book walk · Hyperliquid perp

Simulating a market order at three notionals against the live book. Slippage = avg execution price vs. mid, in basis points. Worst fill = price of the deepest level touched. Live JSON: /api/asset/hl-MEGA/slippage?size=10000&side=buy

SideNotionalAvg fillSlippageWorst fillLevelsStatus
BUY$1.00K0.0600260.45bp0.0600504FILLED
BUY$10.00K0.0600738.39bp0.06010014FILLED
BUY$100.00K0.06010112.95bp0.06016420PARTIAL
SELL$1.00K0.0599974.35bp0.0599864FILLED
SELL$10.00K0.05994213.46bp0.05991115FILLED
SELL$100.00K0.05991817.54bp0.05986820PARTIAL

Funding carry

▸ LONGS PAY · shorts receive
Hourly funding
+1.250e-5
0.00125% / hr
Annualised APR
10.958%
hourly · 24 · 365.25
Long: days to 1% carry
33.3d
longs pay
Short: days to 1% carry
33.3d
shorts receive
SideDirectionAnnualised carryDays → 1%Days → 10%
LONGPAY-10.958%33.3d333.3d
SHORTRECEIVE10.958%33.3d333.3d

/api/asset/hl-MEGA/carry · same metrics, JSON

Volume profile

▸ real volume · Hyperliquid candlesstep $ 1 · 25 records
Price binBarsVolumeDistribution
$0.000000–$1.0000★25$204.78M

★ POC = Point of Control (highest-volume bin). Live JSON: /api/asset/hl-MEGA/volprofile?priceStep=1

Order flow

▸ BID-LEAN · +0.341 · Hyperliquid candles
Bars (buy / sell)
13 / 11
1 unclassified
Buy weight
$134.36M
real volume
Sell weight
$66.06M
real volume
Net delta
$68.30M
buyers net
Imbalance
34.08%
(buy − sell) / (buy + sell)
Toxicity (VPIN)
34.1%
two-sided / balanced
Impact (|Δp|/vol)
—
needs real volume

Sparkline = cumulative delta over the 25-record window./api/asset/hl-MEGA/flow?rollingWindow=30

Cascade clusters

▸ DOWN · 4 found · deepest 10.68% · Hyperliquid candles

Price-only proxy for forced-unwind clusters. No exchange liquidation feed is wired — read each row as a candidate event, not a confirmed liquidation.

#WindowDurationPeak → TroughDrawdownBars
#12026-06-14 02:00:00Z3.0h0.066691→0.05956810.681%4
#22026-06-14 08:00:00Z6.0h0.066293→0.0600259.455%7
#32026-06-13 23:00:00Z0ms0.065044→0.0627413.541%1

/api/asset/hl-MEGA/cascades?windowMs=10800000&minDrawdownPct=0.005 · full list + parameters in JSON

Risk metrics

▸ sovereign store · 5,000 barsperiods/year ≈ 5.26M
Realized vol (annualised)
321.04%
σ per bar = 0.001400
Mean return (annualised)
-5691.48%
μ per bar = -0.000011
Sharpe (rf=0)
-17.73
annualised; risk-free assumed zero
Max drawdown
11.61%
peak 0.07 → trough 0.06 over 3272 bars

/api/asset/hl-MEGA/risk · same metrics, JSON