HYPERLIQUID · PERPETUAL FUTURES

KAITO

KAITO-USD perpetual · 24/7 trading on Hyperliquid

▸ Advanced metrics · M2M bundle

hyperliquid · perp-kaito · fresh · feed 3s old
24h sparkline · 60 pts▲ 6.25%
realized vol (ann.)
131.78%
max drawdown
2.61%
sharpe
48.24
ulcer index
1.20%
RMS drawdown
pain index
0.97%
mean drawdown
mod. VaR 95%
0.00%
Cornish-Fisher
martin ratio
5315.26
ret / ulcer
CDaR 95%
2.42%
cond. drawdown
gain/pain
1.10
Σgain / Σ|loss|
sterling
2622.48
ret / CDaR
omega (θ=0)
1.10
upside/downside
roll spread
0.1 bps
implied (price-only)
bars used
2000
store
spread
—
24h Δ
6.25%
flow lean
—
carry
shorts_pay
-24.12%
signalLONGconfidence 45%suggested side: BUY
  • 24h change +6.25%
  • funding: shorts pay — perp longs get paid to wait
  • mark cheap vs HL oracle by 23.8bps — long bias
Same bundle via M2M API: /api/m2m/hl-KAITO/bundle · venue execution: hyperliquid →
LIVEPOLL0SRCFRESH3.4s⏱--:--:-- UTC8NEXT8.0sUP0s--:--HIST0/30
▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC FRESH·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC FRESH·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·
MARK · live
$0.466
24h Δ · live
6.25%
24h vol · live
$1.2M
KAITO · live 24h price
n=25 · μ=0.4614 · σ=0.0126 · range [0.4391, 0.4857] · R²=0.239▲ RISING +6.25%σ NORMAL 2.73%LAST 0.46650.48570.47400.46240.45070.4391μ = 0.4614max 0.4857min 0.4391dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.24μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxminlive endpoint
25 closes · last $0.47
Funding direction · live
Long fee 49.1%Short fee 50.9%SHORT FEE50.9%
Σ = 0.0%
Σ-sides total = 0.01% (99.99pp arb gap)
H(p) entropy = 1.000 / 1.00 bits (100%) · max uncertainty (~50/50)
Long fee
49.1%▬ +0.00pp
Short fee
50.9%▬ +0.00pp
1h funding -0.002754% · shorts pay
Hourly contract volume · live
n=25 · Σ=2,530,529 · μ=101221.2 · σ=114791.7 · CV=1.13BURSTY · concentratedcumulative energy ↗ · 50% by h=160123,782247,564371,346495,128μ = 101221495,12850%h1h5h9h13h17h21h25#1 peak#2-3> μactivequietμ linecum energy
peak 495128 contracts
Live numerics · pulse on poll
LIVE NUMERICS9 metrics·POLL 0
⏱snapshot age
3.4s
$mark $
$0.4659
$mid $
$0.4659
◉prev-day close
$0.4385
Δ24h Δ %
+6.246%
$24h vol $
$1.16M
◐open interest $
$943.47k
%funding (1h)
-0.002754%
%funding (yr)
-24.12%/yr

§1 · 24h time-series

Close price · hourly
n=25 · μ=0.4614 · σ=0.0126 · range [0.4391, 0.4857] · R²=0.239▲ RISING +6.25%σ NORMAL 2.73%LAST 0.46650.48570.47400.46240.45070.4391μ = 0.4614max 0.4857min 0.4391dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.24μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
mark $0.4659 · 24h 6.25% · range $[0.4391, 0.4857]
OHLC candles · hourly
n=25 · up 16 · down 9 (64% up) · range [0.4303, 0.4958] · σ=0.0126 · CV=0.03 · bodyµ=43%STRONG BULLISH +6.55%CLOSE 0.4665 vs OPEN 0.4378 (+6.55%)&#9650; CLOSE 0.46650.49580.47940.46310.44670.4303μ close = 0.4614O0.438 H0.440 L0.437 C0.439 (+0.28%)O0.438 H0.440 L0.437 C0.439 (+0.28%)O0.439 H0.441 L0.439 C0.441 (+0.44%)O0.439 H0.441 L0.439 C0.441 (+0.44%)O0.441 H0.442 L0.439 C0.442 (+0.27%)O0.441 H0.442 L0.439 C0.442 (+0.27%)O0.443 H0.445 L0.439 C0.441 (-0.40%)O0.443 H0.445 L0.439 C0.441 (-0.40%)O0.441 H0.444 L0.441 C0.444 (+0.57%)O0.441 H0.444 L0.441 C0.444 (+0.57%)O0.445 H0.448 L0.445 C0.448 (+0.71%)O0.445 H0.448 L0.445 C0.448 (+0.71%)O0.448 H0.463 L0.448 C0.462 (+3.14%)O0.448 H0.463 L0.448 C0.462 (+3.14%)O0.462 H0.478 L0.462 C0.475 (+2.74%)O0.462 H0.478 L0.462 C0.475 (+2.74%)O0.475 H0.496 L0.475 C0.486 (+2.33%)O0.475 H0.496 L0.475 C0.486 (+2.33%)O0.487 H0.496 L0.480 C0.480 (-1.44%)O0.487 H0.496 L0.480 C0.480 (-1.44%)-3.2%O0.482 H0.484 L0.466 C0.467 (-3.18%)O0.482 H0.484 L0.466 C0.467 (-3.18%)O0.468 H0.475 L0.466 C0.466 (-0.32%)O0.468 H0.475 L0.466 C0.466 (-0.32%)O0.468 H0.471 L0.466 C0.468 (+0.06%)O0.468 H0.471 L0.466 C0.468 (+0.06%)O0.468 H0.471 L0.461 C0.463 (-1.06%)O0.468 H0.471 L0.461 C0.463 (-1.06%)O0.464 H0.469 L0.463 C0.468 (+0.93%)O0.464 H0.469 L0.463 C0.468 (+0.93%)O0.468 H0.471 L0.461 C0.468 (-0.11%)O0.468 H0.471 L0.461 C0.468 (-0.11%)O0.466 H0.466 L0.455 C0.466 (+0.01%)O0.466 H0.466 L0.455 C0.466 (+0.01%)O0.466 H0.472 L0.465 C0.471 (+1.00%)O0.466 H0.472 L0.465 C0.471 (+1.00%)O0.471 H0.476 L0.430 C0.469 (-0.29%)O0.471 H0.476 L0.430 C0.469 (-0.29%)O0.469 H0.488 L0.442 C0.456 (-2.78%)O0.469 H0.488 L0.442 C0.456 (-2.78%)O0.455 H0.459 L0.448 C0.455 (+0.00%)O0.455 H0.459 L0.448 C0.455 (+0.00%)O0.455 H0.469 L0.454 C0.467 (+2.47%)O0.455 H0.469 L0.454 C0.467 (+2.47%)O0.465 H0.466 L0.456 C0.463 (-0.38%)O0.465 H0.466 L0.456 C0.463 (-0.38%)O0.464 H0.467 L0.461 C0.466 (+0.40%)O0.464 H0.467 L0.461 C0.466 (+0.40%)O0.466 H0.468 L0.466 C0.467 (+0.13%)O0.466 H0.468 L0.466 C0.467 (+0.13%)#1#5#9#13#17#21#25up bar (C≥O)down bar (C<O)MA(5) closeμ closedoji (~no body)biggest body
25 bars
Hourly volume (base units)
n=25 · Σ=2,530,529 · μ=101221.2 · σ=114791.7 · CV=1.13BURSTY · concentratedcumulative energy &nearr; · 50% by h=160123,782247,564371,346495,128μ = 10122177,259 · 15.6% peak77,259 · 15.6% peak10,068 · 2.0% peak10,068 · 2.0% peak20,936 · 4.2% peak20,936 · 4.2% peak29,439 · 5.9% peak29,439 · 5.9% peak3,062 · 0.6% peak3,062 · 0.6% peak56,668 · 11.4% peak56,668 · 11.4% peak73,422 · 14.8% peak73,422 · 14.8% peak52,821 · 10.7% peak52,821 · 10.7% peak348,841 · 70.5% peak348,841 · 70.5% peak151,218 · 30.5% peak151,218 · 30.5% peak141,826 · 28.6% peak141,826 · 28.6% peak69,171 · 14.0% peak69,171 · 14.0% peak37,971 · 7.7% peak37,971 · 7.7% peak61,699 · 12.5% peak61,699 · 12.5% peak35,090 · 7.1% peak35,090 · 7.1% peak107,665 · 21.7% peak107,665 · 21.7% peak25,822 · 5.2% peak25,822 · 5.2% peak63,990 · 12.9% peak63,990 · 12.9% peak495,128495,128 · 100.0% peak495,128 · 100.0% peak266,148 · 53.8% peak266,148 · 53.8% peak168,787 · 34.1% peak168,787 · 34.1% peak52,040 · 10.5% peak52,040 · 10.5% peak100,665 · 20.3% peak100,665 · 20.3% peak59,730 · 12.1% peak59,730 · 12.1% peak21,063 · 4.3% peak21,063 · 4.3% peak50%#1#5#9#13#17#21#25#1 peak#2-3> μactivequietμ linecum energy
Σ vol 2530529 · peak 495128 · CV 1.13

§2 · Returns distribution (log-returns)

Histogram of rₜ = ln(pₜ/pₜ₋₁)
n=24 · 12 bins · μ=0.0026 · σ=0.0141 · skew=-0.08 (symmetric) · kurt=0.05 (mesokurtic)65320 2-269.17bpbin -269.17bp · n=2 · 33.3% peakbin -269.17bp · n=2 · 33.3% peak-218.94bp-168.71bp 2-118.47bpbin -118.47bp · n=2 · 33.3% peakbin -118.47bp · n=2 · 33.3% peak 1-68.24bpbin -68.24bp · n=1 · 16.7% peakbin -68.24bp · n=1 · 16.7% peak 6-18.01bpbin -18.01bp · n=6 · 100.0% peakbin -18.01bp · n=6 · 100.0% peak 532.22bpbin 32.22bp · n=5 · 83.3% peakbin 32.22bp · n=5 · 83.3% peak 382.45bpbin 82.45bp · n=3 · 50.0% peakbin 82.45bp · n=3 · 50.0% peak 1132.69bpbin 132.69bp · n=1 · 16.7% peakbin 132.69bp · n=1 · 16.7% peak182.92bp 2233.15bpbin 233.15bp · n=2 · 33.3% peakbin 233.15bp · n=2 · 33.3% peak 2283.38bpbin 283.38bp · n=2 · 33.3% peakbin 283.38bp · n=2 · 33.3% peakμΔ < 0 · loss barsΔ ≈ 0 · flatΔ > 0 · gain barsN(μ,σ²) referenceμ line · ±σ band shaded
n=24 · positive 13 · negative 11
Q-Q plot · standardised rₜ vs N(0,1)
n=24 · skew=-0.13 · kurt=0.21 · near 19 / mid 5 / far 0 · OLS slope=1.00 intercept=-0.00MATCHES NORMAL · WELL-BEHAVEDMILDLY HEAVY UPPERLOWER TAIL NORMAL-3σ-3σ-2σ-2σ-1σ-1σ+0σ+0σ+1σ+1σ+2σ+2σ+3σ+3σsample ↓marginal: sample bars + theoretical N(0,1) curve →theoretical Φ⁻¹(p) →↑ sample z-quantile|Δ| < 0.3σ · on the line|Δ| < 1σ · moderate|Δ| ≥ 1σ · outliery = x refOLS fit

§3 · Spot quote

Mark price
$0.4659
Mid price
$0.4659
24h change
+6.25%
Mark–mid spread
0.00 bps
Prev-day close
$0.4385

§4 · Sample moments (prices)

Descriptive statistics · 5-number summary · shape diagnostics
SAMPLE MOMENTS · N=25APPROXIMATELY NORMAL · WELL-BEHAVED
μ MEAN0.4614$95% CI: [0.4565$, 0.4664$]
σ STD DEV0.0126$σ² = 1.587×10⁻⁴ · CV = 2.73%
med MEDIAN0.4663$Q₁ 0.4547$ · Q₃ 0.4678$
FIVE-NUMBER SUMMARY · BOX PLOTrange 0.0466$ · IQR 0.0131$ (1.349σ→0.0170$)
min 0.4391$Q₁ 0.4547$med 0.4663$Q₃ 0.4678$max 0.4857$μ
SKEWNESS · G₁-0.353approximately symmetric
−3−10+1+3
EXCESS KURTOSIS · G₂-0.792mesokurtic · normal-like
−30+2+4+6
μ ↔ medianμ < med · left-tailed|μ−med| / σ = 0.38
σ × 1.349 ↔ IQRdiverges from normalratio = 1.29
range ↔ σconcentrated (range < 4σ)range / σ = 3.70
μ = mean · σ = standard deviation · CV = coefficient of variation. Skew (G₁): >0 right-skewed. Kurt (G₂, excess): >0 leptokurtic. 95% CI = μ ± 1.96·SE.

§5 · Returns analytics (log-returns)

Risk-adjusted performance · log-returns
RETURNS · RISK-ADJUSTEDEXCEPTIONAL EDGE · SR=15.85
μᵣ MEAN / h+0.252681%drift is positive per h · |μ|/σ = 0.169
σᵣ STD / h1.492225%σ²ᵣ = 2.227×10⁻⁴ · CV = 5.91×
σ ANNUALISED139.66%/yrscaled by √8760 (hourly→yearly) · 1.492%/h base
RISK-ADJUSTED PERFORMANCEhigher = better edge per unit risk
SHARPE (annualised)15.85excellent · top-decile
-2-10+1+2+3+4
SORTINO (annualised)17.54strong downside-adjusted
-2-10+1+2+3+4
CALMAR (return / max-DD)100.00exceptional DD control
-20+2+4+6
RETURN-DISTRIBUTION SHAPE|skew| < 0.5 ≈ symmetric · |kurt| < 1 ≈ mesokurtic
SKEWNESS · G₁-0.14approximately symmetric
-3-10+1+3
EXCESS KURTOSIS · G₂0.56mesokurtic · normal-like tails
-30+2+4+6
SORTINO vs SHARPEdownside drag · negatively skewedSoR / SR = 1.11
CALMAR · DD CONTROLdrawdown control exceptionalCR = 100.00
EXPECTED EDGE+2213.48%/yr driftμ × 8760 = annualised expectation
rₜ = ln(pₜ/pₜ₋₁). σ × √8760 = annualised. Sharpe = μ/σ scaled; Sortino uses downside-only vol; Calmar = annual return / max drawdown.

§6 · Risk metrics

Tail risk + drawdown · downside diagnostics
TAIL & DRAWDOWN RISKHIGH · 95% VaR 2.59%
VaR₉₅ (h)2.591%5% prob of larger adverse h move
VaR₉₉ (h)2.922%1% prob · extreme-tail threshold
ES₉₅ (CVaR)2.898%expected loss given 5% tail event
MAX DRAWDOWN6.38%12h from peak to trough
TAIL-RISK LADDER (h losses)larger negative = worse · markers show severity
0 · no lossVaR₉₅−2.591%VaR₉₉−2.922%ES₉₅−2.898%worst tail ←→ zero loss
MAX DRAWDOWN PROFILEsignificant drawdown · 12h duration
PEAK48.57$
−6.38% drawdown over 12h
45.47$TROUGH
ES / VaR · TAIL THICKNESSmild tail heaviness|ES₉₅| / |VaR₉₅| = 1.12× (normal ≈ 1.25)
VaR₉₉ / VaR₉₅ · CONCENTRATIONuniform tailratio = 1.13× (normal ≈ 1.41)
DRAWDOWN · CAPITAL DURATIONsignificant drawdownrecovery needed: +6.82% (compounding)
VaR = quantile loss · ES (CVaR) = expected loss conditional on tail · DD = peak-to-trough decline. Under normality ES₉₅/VaR₉₅ ≈ 1.25; ratio > 1.5 ⇒ fat-tail regime.

§7 · Technicals

RSI(14)
60.4 · neutral
Bollinger %B
0.502 · within band
Bollinger upper
$0.4829
Bollinger MA
$0.4664
Bollinger lower
$0.4500

§8 · Time-series structure

Regime & autocorrelation diagnostics
TIME-SERIES STRUCTUREREGIME: TRENDING · variance ratio > 1
ρ(1) AUTOCORR+0.273within white-noise band
ρ(2) AUTOCORR-0.176lag-2 not significant
H · HURST EXPONENT0.906strongly persistent
OLS TREND · t-STAT+2.684significant @ α=0.05
HURST EXPONENT [0, 1]strongly persistent · H = 0.906
H = 0.906STRONGLY PERSISTENT
0
anti-persistent0.45
mean-reverting0.5
random walk0.55
persistent1
strongly trending
AUTOCORRELATION FUNCTION · ρ(k) for k=1..5WHITE NOISE · no significant lags
k=1+0.273k=2-0.176k=3-0.056k=4-0.200k=5-0.2080+1−1+0.41−0.41+ momentum (ρ > +0.41)− reversal (ρ < −0.41)noise (within band)±2/√n threshold
OLS TREND · t-STAT · [-5, +5]SIGNIFICANT @ 1% (|t|=2.68)
−5 reject−1.960 retain H₀+1.96+5 reject
REGIME CLASSIFICATIONTRENDING · variance ratio > 1from Hurst + ρ(1) joint diagnosis
PREDICTABILITY · score 1.00very high · strong structure|ρ(1)| + 2·|H − 0.5| heuristic
TREND SIGNIFICANCESIGNIFICANT @ 1% (|t|=2.68)α=0.05 critical |t|=1.96 · α=0.01 |t|=2.58
ρ(k) = lag-k sample autocorrelation · H = R/S Hurst exponent · t = OLS-trend t-statistic. Significance bands at ±2/√n approximate the 95% white-noise envelope. α=0.05 critical |t|=1.96; α=0.01 |t|=2.58.

§9 · Microstructure

24h volume (USD)
$1.16M
Open interest (USD)
$943.47k
Vol / OI (turnover)
1.23x
1h funding
-0.002754%
Funding (annualised)
-24.12%/yr

§10 · Position sizing

Continuous Kelly (μ/σ²)
10.000× leverage · optimal log-utility leverage
Half-Kelly
5.000× · industry-standard conservative
Quarter-Kelly
2.500×

§11 · Hourly return heatmap

24-hour signed Δln-r grid · green = up · red = down
HOURLY RETURN HEATMAP · n=24 bars · best 3.09% · worst -2.94% · typical |Δ| 1.08%MILD BULLISH +6.06%BEST+3.09%20hWORST-2.94%09hTYPICAL |Δ|1.08%mean absoluteCUMULATIVE+6.06%Σ signed ΔSTREAK↗ 2up-runASIA · 00-08 UTCμ -0.26% · Σ -2.04%EUROPE · 08-16 UTCμ -0.05% · Σ -0.37%US · 16-24 UTCμ +1.06% · Σ +8.48%CUMULATIVE Δ PATH · final +6.06%+10.10%0.00%0.51% · 15h0.51% · 15h0.51%15h0.19% · 16h0.19% · 16h0.19%16h-0.32% · 17h-0.32% · 17h-0.32%17h0.69% · 18h0.69% · 18h0.69%18h0.96% · 19h0.96% · 19h0.96%19h3.09% · 20h3.09% · 20h3.09%20h★ BEST2.64% · 21h2.64% · 21h2.64%21h2.33% · 22h2.33% · 22h2.33%22h-1.11% · 23h-1.11% · 23h-1.11%23h-2.85% · 00h-2.85% · 00h-2.85%00h-0.09% · 01h-0.09% · 01h-0.09%01h0.30% · 02h0.30% · 02h0.30%02h-1.09% · 03h-1.09% · 03h-1.09%03h1.14% · 04h1.14% · 04h1.14%04h-0.11% · 05h-0.11% · 05h-0.11%05h-0.27% · 06h-0.27% · 06h-0.27%06h0.93% · 07h0.93% · 07h0.93%07h-0.28% · 08h-0.28% · 08h-0.28%08h-2.94% · 09h-2.94% · 09h-2.94%09h▼ WORST-0.22% · 10h-0.22% · 10h-0.22%10h2.57% · 11h2.57% · 11h2.57%11h-0.67% · 12h-0.67% · 12h-0.67%12h0.45% · 13h0.45% · 13h0.45%13h0.21% · 14h0.21% · 14h0.21%14hTIME PATTERNUS-led (+8.48%)RUNSup max 5 · down max 3BREADTH54% up · 46% down
13 up bars · 11 down · best 3.09% · worst -2.94% · typical |Δ| 1.082%

§12 · Equity curve & underwater drawdown

Cumulative compounded return + running peak-to-trough
EQUITY & DRAWDOWN ANALYSIS · n=25 barsPROFITABLE +5.97%FINAL+5.97%MAX DD-6.49%RECOVERYONGOING · 16 barsMAX RUN-UP+10.50%UNDERWATER17/25 (68%)STREAK↗ 2EQUITY CURVE · end 1.0597 · peak 1.1050 · range [1.0000, 1.1050]1.10501.0000break-even = 1★ PEAK 1.1050UNDERWATER DRAWDOWN · max -6.49% · significant0%-6.49%▼ TROUGH -6.49%TOP DRAWDOWN PERIODS · 2 total#1 -6.49%bar 10-25 · 16 bars · ONGOING#2 -0.32%bar 4-4 · 1 bars · recoveredDD SEVERITYsignificant (max -6.49%)RECOVERYongoing · 16 barsTIME UNDER WATER68% of session · 17/25 bars
final equity 1.0597 (5.97%) · max DD -6.49% · time-under-water 17/25 bars

§13 · Rolling-window statistics (w = 6 bars)

Rolling annualised Sharpe ratio · green positive · red negative
n=19 · +9 / −10 (47% positive) · μ=14.15 · σ=43.72MIXED EDGELAST -5.22 (-0.44σ vs μ)110.9355.470.00-55.47-110.93μ = 14.1567.9067.9083.2183.21110.93110.9385.7885.7833.3333.3326.0826.089.159.15-22.66-22.66-41.55-41.55-30.55-30.55-2.60-2.6017.0617.065.885.88-16.42-16.42-34.90-34.90-1.81-1.81-5.16-5.16-9.56-9.56-5.22-5.22v > 0 · positivev < 0 · negativeμ mean lineμ ± σ bandlatest bar (outlined)
latest -5.224 · range [-41.55, 110.93] · μ 14.151 · positive Sharpe = excess-return-per-risk earned by buying-and-holding through this window
Rolling annualised volatility (%)
n=19 · μ=143.4078 · σ=44.0779 · range [68.4913, 223.9622] · R²=0.001▲ RISING +51.70%σ EXTREME 30.74%LAST 167.2516223.9622185.0945146.2268107.359068.4913μ = 143.4078max 223.9622min 68.4913dataMA(3)OLS R²=0.00μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
latest 167.25% · range [68.49%, 223.96%] · μ 143.41% · σ̂ scaled to annualised (×√8760)
Rolling lag-1 autocorrelation ρ(1)
n=19 · +9 / −10 (47% positive) · μ=0.002 · σ=0.340CLOSE TO MARTINGALELAST -0.102 (-0.31σ vs μ)0.6330.3160.000-0.316-0.633μ = 0.0020.2030.2030.5060.5060.4250.4250.0310.0310.4040.4040.4900.4900.3370.337-0.084-0.084-0.090-0.090-0.163-0.163-0.633-0.633-0.557-0.557-0.555-0.5550.0210.021-0.057-0.0570.0190.019-0.070-0.070-0.086-0.086-0.102-0.102v > 0 · positivev < 0 · negativeμ mean lineμ ± σ bandlatest bar (outlined)
latest -0.102 · |ρ| > 0.3 ⇒ regime with persistence (ρ > 0) or reversal (ρ < 0) · |ρ| ≤ 0.1 = consistent with random walk

§14 · Hypothesis tests (α = 0.05)

Formal inference at 5% significance
ALL TESTS PASS · data behaves as nominal0 reject·6 pass·α = 0.05
𝒩

Jarque-Bera

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Δln-r ~ Normal(μ, σ²)

STATISTIC
0.3903
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.8227
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainednormality not rejected
ρ

Ljung-Box(h=5)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: No serial autocorrelation up to lag 5

STATISTIC
5.6562
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.3410
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedconsistent with white noise
Ψ

Dickey-Fuller (τ_μ)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: p has a unit root (non-stationary)

STATISTIC
-1.9974
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.2969
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedrandom-walk behaviour (crit ≈ -2.86)
±

Wald-Wolfowitz runs

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Sign sequence of Δ is random

STATISTIC
0.0350
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.9720
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedsigns appear random (13 runs)
χ

KPSS (μ stationarity)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: p IS level-stationary

STATISTIC
0.3455
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.1026
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedstationary not rejected (crit 0.463)
χ

Variance ratio q=3

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Δln-r is a random walk · VR = 1

STATISTIC
1.1959
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.2318
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedVR 1.364 ≈ 1 (RW behaviour)
Each row states an explicit null H₀, the test statistic, an approximated p-value, and the decision. REJECT means evidence against H₀. KPSS complements ADF (rejecting both ⇒ ambiguous; rejecting one ⇒ clean verdict).

§15 · Spectral analysis (DFT periodogram)

Power spectrum of Δln-r · ‖X̂(k)‖²/n
n=12 bins · noise floor μ=2.14e-4 · top T=8.00h (28.5%) · top-3 cover 58.3%1 SIGNIFICANT CYCLEcumulative energy ↗ (1 bin above 2× noise)7.3e-45.5e-43.7e-41.8e-40.0e+0μ noise floor2× noise (significance)period 24.0 · power 2.98e-4 · 11.6% energyperiod 24.0 · power 2.98e-4 · 11.6% energyperiod 12.0 · power 1.71e-4 · 6.7% energyperiod 12.0 · power 1.71e-4 · 6.7% energyperiod 8.0 · power 7.31e-4 · 28.5% energyperiod 8.0 · power 7.31e-4 · 28.5% energyperiod 6.0 · power 6.87e-5 · 2.7% energyperiod 6.0 · power 6.87e-5 · 2.7% energyperiod 4.8 · power 4.22e-4 · 16.4% energyperiod 4.8 · power 4.22e-4 · 16.4% energyperiod 4.0 · power 6.58e-5 · 2.6% energyperiod 4.0 · power 6.58e-5 · 2.6% energyperiod 3.4 · power 2.92e-4 · 11.4% energyperiod 3.4 · power 2.92e-4 · 11.4% energyperiod 3.0 · power 3.43e-4 · 13.4% energyperiod 3.0 · power 3.43e-4 · 13.4% energyperiod 2.7 · power 1.06e-5 · 0.4% energyperiod 2.7 · power 1.06e-5 · 0.4% energyperiod 2.4 · power 1.06e-4 · 4.1% energyperiod 2.4 · power 1.06e-4 · 4.1% energyperiod 2.2 · power 5.00e-5 · 1.9% energyperiod 2.2 · power 5.00e-5 · 1.9% energyperiod 2.0 · power 6.56e-6 · 0.3% energyperiod 2.0 · power 6.56e-6 · 0.3% energy50% by T=4.8h#1 dominantT=8.00h#2T=4.80h#3T=3.00hT=2hT=3hT=4hT=6hT=8hT=12hT=16hT=24h← shorter cycle (high freq · Nyquist=½) · period T (bars per cycle) · longer cycle (low freq · 1/n) →#1 dominant#2 peak#3 peak> 2× noisenoiseμ floor2μ sig.cum energy
dominant period ≈ 8.00h (freq 0.125) · concentrates 28.5% of total energy · Σ|X̂|²/n = 2.564e-3

▸ Depth section using sovereign-store price series (5000 bars · effective 5257847 bars/year) — annualisation reflects native polling cadence, not upstream timeframes.

§16 · NOSTRADAMUS continuous quant — perp leverage & bootstrap MC

Continuous-price extension of the prediction-market quant module. Kelly growth on observed returns (Merton μ/σ² parametric vs argmax empirical), Monte-Carlo equity fan bootstrapped from the historical return distribution at quarter-Kelly leverage, and an annualized return decomposition. Sweep parameters in the simulator.

§17 · Continuous Kelly

Continuous-Kelly growth · g(f) = E[ln(1 + f·r)]
f★ empirical 0.87× · g(f★) 0.000%/barparametric μ/σ² 0.87× · μ 0.000% · σ 0.13%
μ per barmean
0.000%
σ per barvol
0.13%
Empirical f★argmax g(f)
0.87×
from observed distribution
Parametric f★μ/σ²
0.87×
Merton continuous-time
Half-Kelly½ f★
0.44×
~⅔ of full growth, half the variance
Quarter-Kelly¼ f★
0.22×
industry default — survives model error
-0.00%-0.00%-0.00%-0.00%0.00%0.0×0.6×1.3×1.9×2.5×3.2×f★ empμ/σ²leverage fraction fexpected log-growth per bar
g(f) empiricalf★ argmaxparametric f★
Maximum expected log-growth from leveraging the historical return distribution. Empirical f★ argmaxes the sample expectation; parametric f★ = μ/σ² is Merton's continuous-time optimum.

§18 · MC equity fan

Bootstrapped equity fan at 0.22× leverage
Median CAGR/bar -0.000% · annualized Sharpe -2.43400 paths × 720 bars · leverage 0.22× · bootstrap from 4999 observed returns
Sharpe / barμ/σ
-0.001
annualized -2.43
μ per barafter L
-0.000%
σ per barafter L
0.03%
VaR 95%5%
0.02%
per-bar worst-case
CVaR 95%ES
0.05%
mean tail loss
Max DD (median)MDD
-0.1%
0.94×0.96×0.99×1.01×1.04×1.06×0120240360480600720startbar #equity multiple
median25/75 band5/95 band
Median path with 25/75 and 5/95 percentile bands across 400 simulated careers. Bars resample with replacement from the observed return distribution — preserves fat tails the parametric model misses.

§19 · Annualized breakdown

Annualized return components
APR 790% · APY 1000% · Sharpe 2.62σ ann 301% · Sortino 2.56 · n 4999 · ⚠ capped (n=4999 too small to support 8760-bar projection)
0%240%480%720%960%1200%790.3%APR (simple)1000.0%APY (compound)301.4%Ann. vol σ262.2%Sharpe (ann)255.8%Sortino (ann)
Simple APR vs compounded APY · annualized volatility · risk-adjusted Sharpe and Sortino. All scaled by √(periods/yr).

§20 · GARCH(1,1) volatility band

GARCH(1,1) · conditional vol envelope (±2σ)
GARCH persistence α+β = 0.980· σ̂ₜ = 1.001% · long-run σ = 2.236%
0.4130.4320.4510.4700.4880.507t-4999t-4166t-3333t-2500t-1666t-833t-0

Persistence near 1 ⇒ vol clusters strongly (slow mean reversion). Long-run σ is the unconditional target the conditional vol orbits. The ±2σ band reflects time-varying scale, unlike a flat-vol band.

Time-varying volatility band fitted to the price series. Persistence α+β > 0.98 means vol shocks decay slowly — recent moves stay relevant.

§∞ · Provenance & attestation

Upstream
api.hyperliquid.xyz
Snapshot fetched
2026-06-14 14:31:13 UTC
Snapshot age
3.4s
History points
25 hourly closes
Page rendered
2026-06-14 14:31:17 UTC
Storage policy
no persistence — fetched on every request
SHA-256 attestation
9ee25929af3f5342fbf02611a577c32943d5af7fef6661b08fe74da857d413d2 · deterministic hash of the source snapshot — proves this page was rendered from this exact data
Open data licence
CC0 / public domain · free to mirror, syndicate, analyse

§∞-2 · Related markets · explore more

HL PREDGermany94.3¢HL PREDSpain90.0¢HL PREDUruguay66.7¢POLYMARKETWill Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?0¢POLYMARKETWill Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?0¢POLYMARKETWill Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?1¢HL PERPBTC-USD perpetual$64,116.5HL PERPETH-USD perpetual$1,664.05HL PERPHYPE-USD perpetual$60.12

Also see: /arb opportunities · RSS feed

Market depth

▸ live order book · Hyperliquid perp
Depth within 1bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Depth within 5bp
$5.46K
bid $583 · ask $4.87K
Depth within 10bp
$8.70K
bid $1.93K · ask $6.77K
Depth within 50bp
$59.77K
bid $41.05K · ask $18.71K
Mid price
0.465820
(best bid + best ask) / 2
Spread
3.0bp
(bestAsk − bestBid) / mid
Imbalance (whole book)
+0.376
bid-heavy
Imbalance (top-5)
+0.059
bid-heavy top-of-book

Slippage scenarios

▸ live book walk · Hyperliquid perp

Simulating a market order at three notionals against the live book. Slippage = avg execution price vs. mid, in basis points. Worst fill = price of the deepest level touched. Live JSON: /api/asset/hl-KAITO/slippage?size=10000&side=buy

SideNotionalAvg fillSlippageWorst fillLevelsStatus
BUY$1.00K0.4658901.50bp0.4658901FILLED
BUY$10.00K0.4661677.45bp0.46648012FILLED
BUY$100.00K0.46643813.27bp0.46687020PARTIAL
SELL$1.00K0.4656793.03bp0.4655802FILLED
SELL$10.00K0.46505216.48bp0.46442012FILLED
SELL$100.00K0.46438630.78bp0.46390020PARTIAL

Funding carry

▸ SHORTS PAY · longs receive
Hourly funding
-2.754e-5
-0.00275% / hr
Annualised APR
-24.141%
hourly · 24 · 365.25
Long: days to 1% carry
15.1d
longs receive
Short: days to 1% carry
15.1d
shorts pay
SideDirectionAnnualised carryDays → 1%Days → 10%
LONGRECEIVE24.141%15.1d151.3d
SHORTPAY-24.141%15.1d151.3d

/api/asset/hl-KAITO/carry · same metrics, JSON

Volume profile

▸ real volume · Hyperliquid candlesstep $ 1 · 25 records
Price binBarsVolumeDistribution
$0.000000–$1.0000★25$2.53M

★ POC = Point of Control (highest-volume bin). Live JSON: /api/asset/hl-KAITO/volprofile?priceStep=1

Order flow

▸ ASK-LEAN · -0.319 · Hyperliquid candles
Bars (buy / sell)
13 / 11
1 unclassified
Buy weight
$835.70K
real volume
Sell weight
$1.62M
real volume
Net delta
$781.87K
sellers net
Imbalance
-31.87%
(buy − sell) / (buy + sell)
Toxicity (VPIN)
31.9%
two-sided / balanced
Impact (|Δp|/vol)
—
needs real volume

Sparkline = cumulative delta over the 25-record window./api/asset/hl-KAITO/flow?rollingWindow=30

Cascade clusters

▸ DOWN · 2 found · deepest 4.73% · Hyperliquid candles

Price-only proxy for forced-unwind clusters. No exchange liquidation feed is wired — read each row as a candidate event, not a confirmed liquidation.

#WindowDurationPeak → TroughDrawdownBars
#12026-06-13 23:00:00Z4.0h0.485710→0.4627404.729%5
#22026-06-14 09:00:00Z3.0h0.470640→0.4547003.387%4

/api/asset/hl-KAITO/cascades?windowMs=10800000&minDrawdownPct=0.005 · full list + parameters in JSON

Risk metrics

▸ sovereign store · 5,000 barsperiods/year ≈ 5.26M
Realized vol (annualised)
301.35%
σ per bar = 0.001314
Mean return (annualised)
790.30%
μ per bar = 0.000002
Sharpe (rf=0)
2.62
annualised; risk-free assumed zero
Max drawdown
9.36%
peak 0.49 → trough 0.44 over 201 bars

/api/asset/hl-KAITO/risk · same metrics, JSON