HYPERLIQUID · PERPETUAL FUTURES

IO

IO-USD perpetual · 24/7 trading on Hyperliquid

▸ Advanced metrics · M2M bundle

hyperliquid · perp-io · fresh · feed 2s old
24h sparkline · 60 pts▼ -10.02%
realized vol (ann.)
92.03%
max drawdown
5.19%
sharpe
-138.22
ulcer index
2.84%
RMS drawdown
pain index
2.33%
mean drawdown
mod. VaR 95%
0.06%
Cornish-Fisher
martin ratio
-4475.26
ret / ulcer
CDaR 95%
4.89%
cond. drawdown
gain/pain
0.80
Σgain / Σ|loss|
sterling
-2598.84
ret / CDaR
omega (θ=0)
0.80
upside/downside
roll spread
0.0 bps
implied (price-only)
bars used
2000
store
spread
—
24h Δ
-10.02%
flow lean
—
carry
shorts_pay
-79.08%
signalNEUTRALconfidence 35%
  • 24h change -10.02%
  • funding: shorts pay — perp longs get paid to wait
  • mark cheap vs HL oracle by 20.6bps — long bias
Same bundle via M2M API: /api/m2m/hl-IO/bundle · venue execution: hyperliquid →
LIVEPOLL0SRCFRESH2.3s⏱--:--:-- UTC8NEXT8.0sUP0s--:--HIST0/30
▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC FRESH·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC FRESH·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·
MARK · live
$0.170
24h Δ · live
-10.02%
24h vol · live
$0.7M
IO · live 24h price
n=25 · μ=0.1792 · σ=0.0044 · range [0.1695, 0.1868] · R²=0.827▼ FALLING -9.26%σ NORMAL 2.47%LAST 0.16950.18680.18250.17820.17380.1695μ = 0.1792max 0.1868min 0.1695dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.83μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxminlive endpoint
25 closes · last $0.17
Funding direction · live
Long fee 49.7%Short fee 50.3%SHORT FEE50.3%
Σ = 0.0%
Σ-sides total = 0.02% (99.98pp arb gap)
H(p) entropy = 1.000 / 1.00 bits (100%) · max uncertainty (~50/50)
Long fee
49.7%▬ +0.00pp
Short fee
50.3%▬ +0.00pp
1h funding -0.009027% · shorts pay
Hourly contract volume · live
n=25 · Σ=4,215,229 · μ=168609.1 · σ=137305.5 · CV=0.81BURSTYcumulative energy ↗ · 50% by h=160162,262324,524486,786649,048μ = 168609649,047.950%h1h5h9h13h17h21h25#1 peak#2-3> μactivequietμ linecum energy
peak 649048 contracts
Live numerics · pulse on poll
LIVE NUMERICS9 metrics·POLL 0
⏱snapshot age
2.3s
$mark $
$0.1697
$mid $
$0.1697
◉prev-day close
$0.1885
Δ24h Δ %
-10.019%
$24h vol $
$735.30k
◐open interest $
$661.56k
%funding (1h)
-0.009027%
%funding (yr)
-79.08%/yr

§1 · 24h time-series

Close price · hourly
n=25 · μ=0.1792 · σ=0.0044 · range [0.1695, 0.1868] · R²=0.827▼ FALLING -9.26%σ NORMAL 2.47%LAST 0.16950.18680.18250.17820.17380.1695μ = 0.1792max 0.1868min 0.1695dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.83μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
mark $0.1696 · 24h -10.02% · range $[0.1695, 0.1868]
OHLC candles · hourly
n=25 · up 10 · down 15 (40% up) · range [0.1691, 0.1903] · σ=0.0044 · CV=0.02 · bodyµ=50%BEARISH -10.08%CLOSE 0.1695 vs OPEN 0.1885 (-10.08%)&#9660; CLOSE 0.16950.19030.18500.17970.17440.1691μ close = 0.1792O0.189 H0.190 L0.187 C0.187 (-0.91%)O0.189 H0.190 L0.187 C0.187 (-0.91%)O0.187 H0.188 L0.186 C0.186 (-0.12%)O0.187 H0.188 L0.186 C0.186 (-0.12%)O0.186 H0.186 L0.181 C0.183 (-2.09%)O0.186 H0.186 L0.181 C0.183 (-2.09%)O0.183 H0.183 L0.181 C0.181 (-1.05%)O0.183 H0.183 L0.181 C0.181 (-1.05%)O0.180 H0.184 L0.180 C0.183 (+1.45%)O0.180 H0.184 L0.180 C0.183 (+1.45%)O0.183 H0.185 L0.181 C0.184 (+0.28%)O0.183 H0.185 L0.181 C0.184 (+0.28%)O0.184 H0.185 L0.182 C0.184 (+0.27%)O0.184 H0.185 L0.182 C0.184 (+0.27%)O0.185 H0.185 L0.182 C0.184 (-0.54%)O0.185 H0.185 L0.182 C0.184 (-0.54%)O0.184 H0.184 L0.181 C0.182 (-1.01%)O0.184 H0.184 L0.181 C0.182 (-1.01%)O0.182 H0.182 L0.180 C0.180 (-0.86%)O0.182 H0.182 L0.180 C0.180 (-0.86%)O0.180 H0.180 L0.177 C0.178 (-0.93%)O0.180 H0.180 L0.177 C0.178 (-0.93%)O0.178 H0.179 L0.177 C0.178 (+0.02%)O0.178 H0.179 L0.177 C0.178 (+0.02%)O0.179 H0.180 L0.178 C0.180 (+1.04%)O0.179 H0.180 L0.178 C0.180 (+1.04%)O0.180 H0.182 L0.179 C0.181 (+0.10%)O0.180 H0.182 L0.179 C0.181 (+0.10%)O0.181 H0.181 L0.177 C0.177 (-1.82%)O0.181 H0.181 L0.177 C0.177 (-1.82%)O0.177 H0.179 L0.177 C0.179 (+0.98%)O0.177 H0.179 L0.177 C0.179 (+0.98%)O0.179 H0.181 L0.177 C0.178 (-0.62%)O0.179 H0.181 L0.177 C0.178 (-0.62%)O0.178 H0.178 L0.174 C0.175 (-1.55%)O0.178 H0.178 L0.174 C0.175 (-1.55%)O0.175 H0.177 L0.173 C0.176 (+0.60%)O0.175 H0.177 L0.173 C0.176 (+0.60%)O0.176 H0.177 L0.174 C0.176 (+0.18%)O0.176 H0.177 L0.174 C0.176 (+0.18%)O0.176 H0.182 L0.176 C0.178 (+1.24%)O0.176 H0.182 L0.176 C0.178 (+1.24%)O0.178 H0.179 L0.177 C0.177 (-0.61%)O0.178 H0.179 L0.177 C0.177 (-0.61%)-2.5%O0.177 H0.177 L0.171 C0.173 (-2.51%)O0.177 H0.177 L0.171 C0.173 (-2.51%)O0.173 H0.174 L0.171 C0.171 (-0.95%)O0.173 H0.174 L0.171 C0.171 (-0.95%)O0.171 H0.171 L0.169 C0.170 (-0.92%)O0.171 H0.171 L0.169 C0.170 (-0.92%)#1#5#9#13#17#21#25up bar (C≥O)down bar (C<O)MA(5) closeμ closedoji (~no body)biggest body
25 bars
Hourly volume (base units)
n=25 · Σ=4,215,229 · μ=168609.1 · σ=137305.5 · CV=0.81BURSTYcumulative energy &nearr; · 50% by h=160162,262324,524486,786649,048μ = 168609169,758.7 · 26.2% peak169,758.7 · 26.2% peak85,845.1 · 13.2% peak85,845.1 · 13.2% peak205,920.6 · 31.7% peak205,920.6 · 31.7% peak291,022.8 · 44.8% peak291,022.8 · 44.8% peak105,107.9 · 16.2% peak105,107.9 · 16.2% peak102,903 · 15.9% peak102,903 · 15.9% peak106,993.3 · 16.5% peak106,993.3 · 16.5% peak61,063.2 · 9.4% peak61,063.2 · 9.4% peak78,800.9 · 12.1% peak78,800.9 · 12.1% peak74,188.1 · 11.4% peak74,188.1 · 11.4% peak132,301.7 · 20.4% peak132,301.7 · 20.4% peak115,312.3 · 17.8% peak115,312.3 · 17.8% peak68,481.6 · 10.6% peak68,481.6 · 10.6% peak372,697.9 · 57.4% peak372,697.9 · 57.4% peak49,840.3 · 7.7% peak49,840.3 · 7.7% peak114,424.7 · 17.6% peak114,424.7 · 17.6% peak204,500.8 · 31.5% peak204,500.8 · 31.5% peak220,286.4 · 33.9% peak220,286.4 · 33.9% peak649,047.9649,047.9 · 100.0% peak649,047.9 · 100.0% peak104,028 · 16.0% peak104,028 · 16.0% peak329,086.3 · 50.7% peak329,086.3 · 50.7% peak39,740.7 · 6.1% peak39,740.7 · 6.1% peak278,827.2 · 43.0% peak278,827.2 · 43.0% peak224,562.2 · 34.6% peak224,562.2 · 34.6% peak30,487 · 4.7% peak30,487 · 4.7% peak50%#1#5#9#13#17#21#25#1 peak#2-3> μactivequietμ linecum energy
Σ vol 4215229 · peak 649048 · CV 0.81

§2 · Returns distribution (log-returns)

Histogram of rₜ = ln(pₜ/pₜ₋₁)
n=24 · 12 bins · μ=-0.0040 · σ=0.0099 · skew=-0.17 (symmetric) · kurt=-0.89 (mesokurtic)65320 1-240.90bpbin -240.90bp · n=1 · 16.7% peakbin -240.90bp · n=1 · 16.7% peak 1-209.10bpbin -209.10bp · n=1 · 16.7% peakbin -209.10bp · n=1 · 16.7% peak 1-177.31bpbin -177.31bp · n=1 · 16.7% peakbin -177.31bp · n=1 · 16.7% peak 1-145.51bpbin -145.51bp · n=1 · 16.7% peakbin -145.51bp · n=1 · 16.7% peak 2-113.71bpbin -113.71bp · n=2 · 33.3% peakbin -113.71bp · n=2 · 33.3% peak 6-81.92bpbin -81.92bp · n=6 · 100.0% peakbin -81.92bp · n=6 · 100.0% peak 1-50.12bpbin -50.12bp · n=1 · 16.7% peakbin -50.12bp · n=1 · 16.7% peak 1-18.33bpbin -18.33bp · n=1 · 16.7% peakbin -18.33bp · n=1 · 16.7% peak 213.47bpbin 13.47bp · n=2 · 33.3% peakbin 13.47bp · n=2 · 33.3% peak 445.27bpbin 45.27bp · n=4 · 66.7% peakbin 45.27bp · n=4 · 66.7% peak 177.06bpbin 77.06bp · n=1 · 16.7% peakbin 77.06bp · n=1 · 16.7% peak 3108.86bpbin 108.86bp · n=3 · 50.0% peakbin 108.86bp · n=3 · 50.0% peakμΔ < 0 · loss barsΔ ≈ 0 · flatΔ > 0 · gain barsN(μ,σ²) referenceμ line · ±σ band shaded
n=24 · positive 10 · negative 14
Q-Q plot · standardised rₜ vs N(0,1)
n=24 · skew=-0.11 · kurt=-0.69 · near 22 / mid 2 / far 0 · OLS slope=1.01 intercept=-0.00MATCHES NORMAL · WELL-BEHAVEDUPPER TAIL NORMALLOWER TAIL NORMAL-3σ-3σ-2σ-2σ-1σ-1σ+0σ+0σ+1σ+1σ+2σ+2σ+3σ+3σsample ↓marginal: sample bars + theoretical N(0,1) curve →theoretical Φ⁻¹(p) →↑ sample z-quantile|Δ| < 0.3σ · on the line|Δ| < 1σ · moderate|Δ| ≥ 1σ · outliery = x refOLS fit

§3 · Spot quote

Mark price
$0.1697
Mid price
$0.1697
24h change
-10.02%
Mark–mid spread
0.00 bps
Prev-day close
$0.1885

§4 · Sample moments (prices)

Descriptive statistics · 5-number summary · shape diagnostics
SAMPLE MOMENTS · N=25APPROXIMATELY NORMAL · WELL-BEHAVED
μ MEAN0.1792$95% CI: [0.1775$, 0.1810$]
σ STD DEV0.0044$σ² = 0.196×10⁻⁴ · CV = 2.47%
med MEDIAN0.1789$Q₁ 0.1771$ · Q₃ 0.1825$
FIVE-NUMBER SUMMARY · BOX PLOTrange 0.0173$ · IQR 0.0054$ (1.349σ→0.0060$)
min 0.1695$Q₁ 0.1771$med 0.1789$Q₃ 0.1825$max 0.1868$μ
SKEWNESS · G₁-0.315approximately symmetric
−3−10+1+3
EXCESS KURTOSIS · G₂-0.534mesokurtic · normal-like
−30+2+4+6
μ ↔ median≈ equal · symmetric|μ−med| / σ = 0.08
σ × 1.349 ↔ IQRconsistent with normalratio = 1.10
range ↔ σconcentrated (range < 4σ)range / σ = 3.91
μ = mean · σ = standard deviation · CV = coefficient of variation. Skew (G₁): >0 right-skewed. Kurt (G₂, excess): >0 leptokurtic. 95% CI = μ ± 1.96·SE.

§5 · Returns analytics (log-returns)

Risk-adjusted performance · log-returns
RETURNS · RISK-ADJUSTEDUNPROFITABLE · SR=-36.28
μᵣ MEAN / h-0.404694%drift is negative per h · |μ|/σ = 0.388
σᵣ STD / h1.043926%σ²ᵣ = 1.090×10⁻⁴ · CV = 2.58×
σ ANNUALISED97.71%/yrscaled by √8760 (hourly→yearly) · 1.044%/h base
RISK-ADJUSTED PERFORMANCEhigher = better edge per unit risk
SHARPE (annualised)-36.28negative edge
-2-10+1+2+3+4
SORTINO (annualised)-29.43downside drag
-2-10+1+2+3+4
CALMAR (return / max-DD)-100.00drawdown overwhelms returns
-20+2+4+6
RETURN-DISTRIBUTION SHAPE|skew| < 0.5 ≈ symmetric · |kurt| < 1 ≈ mesokurtic
SKEWNESS · G₁-0.11approximately symmetric
-3-10+1+3
EXCESS KURTOSIS · G₂-0.56mesokurtic · normal-like tails
-30+2+4+6
SORTINO vs SHARPEdownside vol < total vol · favourableSoR / SR = 0.81
CALMAR · DD CONTROLdrawdown > returns · adverseCR = -100.00
EXPECTED EDGE-3545.12%/yr driftμ × 8760 = annualised expectation
rₜ = ln(pₜ/pₜ₋₁). σ × √8760 = annualised. Sharpe = μ/σ scaled; Sortino uses downside-only vol; Calmar = annual return / max drawdown.

§6 · Risk metrics

Tail risk + drawdown · downside diagnostics
TAIL & DRAWDOWN RISKHIGH · 95% VaR 2.03%
VaR₉₅ (h)2.029%5% prob of larger adverse h move
VaR₉₉ (h)2.454%1% prob · extreme-tail threshold
ES₉₅ (CVaR)2.320%expected loss given 5% tail event
MAX DRAWDOWN9.26%24h from peak to trough
TAIL-RISK LADDER (h losses)larger negative = worse · markers show severity
0 · no lossVaR₉₅−2.029%VaR₉₉−2.454%ES₉₅−2.320%worst tail ←→ zero loss
MAX DRAWDOWN PROFILEsignificant drawdown · 24h duration
PEAK18.68$
−9.26% drawdown over 24h
16.95$TROUGH
ES / VaR · TAIL THICKNESSmild tail heaviness|ES₉₅| / |VaR₉₅| = 1.14× (normal ≈ 1.25)
VaR₉₉ / VaR₉₅ · CONCENTRATIONuniform tailratio = 1.21× (normal ≈ 1.41)
DRAWDOWN · CAPITAL DURATIONsignificant drawdownrecovery needed: +10.20% (compounding)
VaR = quantile loss · ES (CVaR) = expected loss conditional on tail · DD = peak-to-trough decline. Under normality ES₉₅/VaR₉₅ ≈ 1.25; ratio > 1.5 ⇒ fat-tail regime.

§7 · Technicals

RSI(14)
25.7 · oversold
Bollinger %B
-0.033 · below lower band
Bollinger upper
$0.1861
Bollinger MA
$0.1781
Bollinger lower
$0.1700

§8 · Time-series structure

Regime & autocorrelation diagnostics
TIME-SERIES STRUCTUREREGIME: INDETERMINATE · weak signal at n=24
ρ(1) AUTOCORR+0.138within white-noise band
ρ(2) AUTOCORR-0.309lag-2 not significant
H · HURST EXPONENT0.608persistent
OLS TREND · t-STAT-10.500significant @ α=0.05
HURST EXPONENT [0, 1]persistent · H = 0.608
H = 0.608PERSISTENT
0
anti-persistent0.45
mean-reverting0.5
random walk0.55
persistent1
strongly trending
AUTOCORRELATION FUNCTION · ρ(k) for k=1..5WHITE NOISE · no significant lags
k=1+0.138k=2-0.309k=3-0.172k=4-0.307k=5+0.0100+1−1+0.41−0.41+ momentum (ρ > +0.41)− reversal (ρ < −0.41)noise (within band)±2/√n threshold
OLS TREND · t-STAT · [-5, +5]SIGNIFICANT @ 1% (|t|=10.50)
−5 reject−1.960 retain H₀+1.96+5 reject
REGIME CLASSIFICATIONINDETERMINATE · weak signal at n=24from Hurst + ρ(1) joint diagnosis
PREDICTABILITY · score 0.35high · clear structure|ρ(1)| + 2·|H − 0.5| heuristic
TREND SIGNIFICANCESIGNIFICANT @ 1% (|t|=10.50)α=0.05 critical |t|=1.96 · α=0.01 |t|=2.58
ρ(k) = lag-k sample autocorrelation · H = R/S Hurst exponent · t = OLS-trend t-statistic. Significance bands at ±2/√n approximate the 95% white-noise envelope. α=0.05 critical |t|=1.96; α=0.01 |t|=2.58.

§9 · Microstructure

24h volume (USD)
$735.30k
Open interest (USD)
$661.56k
Vol / OI (turnover)
1.11x
1h funding
-0.009027%
Funding (annualised)
-79.08%/yr

§10 · Position sizing

Continuous Kelly (μ/σ²)
-10.000× leverage · optimal log-utility leverage
Half-Kelly
-5.000× · industry-standard conservative
Quarter-Kelly
-2.500×

§11 · Hourly return heatmap

24-hour signed Δln-r grid · green = up · red = down
HOURLY RETURN HEATMAP · n=24 bars · best 1.25% · worst -2.57% · typical |Δ| 0.91%MILD BEARISH -9.71%BEST+1.25%18hWORST-2.57%12hTYPICAL |Δ|0.91%mean absoluteCUMULATIVE-9.71%Σ signed ΔSTREAK↘ 4down-runASIA · 00-08 UTCμ -0.35% · Σ -2.84%EUROPE · 08-16 UTCμ -0.43% · Σ -3.45%US · 16-24 UTCμ -0.43% · Σ -3.42%CUMULATIVE Δ PATH · final -9.71%+0.00%-9.71%-0.25% · 15h-0.25% · 15h-0.25%15h-2.07% · 16h-2.07% · 16h-2.07%16h-0.93% · 17h-0.93% · 17h-0.93%17h1.25% · 18h1.25% · 18h1.25%18h★ BEST0.34% · 19h0.34% · 19h0.34%19h0.39% · 20h0.39% · 20h0.39%20h-0.35% · 21h-0.35% · 21h-0.35%21h-1.08% · 22h-1.08% · 22h-1.08%22h-0.96% · 23h-0.96% · 23h-0.96%23h-1.02% · 00h-1.02% · 00h-1.02%00h0.02% · 01h0.02% · 01h0.02%01h1.24% · 02h1.24% · 02h1.24%02h0.06% · 03h0.06% · 03h0.06%03h-1.79% · 04h-1.79% · 04h-1.79%04h0.84% · 05h0.84% · 05h0.84%05h-0.73% · 06h-0.73% · 06h-0.73%06h-1.46% · 07h-1.46% · 07h-1.46%07h0.46% · 08h0.46% · 08h0.46%08h0.32% · 09h0.32% · 09h0.32%09h1.19% · 10h1.19% · 10h1.19%10h-0.79% · 11h-0.79% · 11h-0.79%11h-2.57% · 12h-2.57% · 12h-2.57%12h▼ WORST-0.89% · 13h-0.89% · 13h-0.89%13h-0.92% · 14h-0.92% · 14h-0.92%14hTIME PATTERNAsia-led (+-2.84%)RUNSup max 3 · down max 4BREADTH42% up · 58% down
10 up bars · 14 down · best 1.25% · worst -2.57% · typical |Δ| 0.913%

§12 · Equity curve & underwater drawdown

Cumulative compounded return + running peak-to-trough
EQUITY & DRAWDOWN ANALYSIS · n=25 barsSEVERE DRAWDOWN -9.39%FINAL-9.39%MAX DD-9.39%RECOVERYONGOING · 24 barsMAX RUN-UP+0.00%UNDERWATER24/25 (96%)STREAK↘ 4EQUITY CURVE · end 0.9061 · peak 1.0000 · range [0.9061, 1.0000]1.00000.9061break-even = 1★ PEAK 1.0000UNDERWATER DRAWDOWN · max -9.39% · significant0%-9.39%▼ TROUGH -9.39%TOP DRAWDOWN PERIODS · 1 total#1 -9.39%bar 2-25 · 24 bars · ONGOINGDD SEVERITYsignificant (max -9.39%)RECOVERYongoing · 24 barsTIME UNDER WATER96% of session · 24/25 bars
final equity 0.9061 (-9.39%) · max DD -9.39% · time-under-water 24/25 bars

§13 · Rolling-window statistics (w = 6 bars)

Rolling annualised Sharpe ratio · green positive · red negative
n=19 · +1 / −18 (5% positive) · μ=-26.85 · σ=20.51UNPROFITABLE STRATEGYLAST -44.63 (-0.87σ vs μ)76.3138.160.00-38.16-76.31μ = -26.85-17.20-17.20-18.53-18.53-6.93-6.93-7.34-7.34-61.66-61.66-76.31-76.31-37.37-37.37-29.63-29.63-35.63-35.63-8.91-8.91-5.14-5.14-23.35-23.35-38.62-38.62-33.91-33.919.519.51-16.00-16.00-31.85-31.85-26.65-26.65-44.63-44.63v > 0 · positivev < 0 · negativeμ mean lineμ ± σ bandlatest bar (outlined)
latest -44.630 · range [-76.31, 9.51] · μ -26.851 · positive Sharpe = excess-return-per-risk earned by buying-and-holding through this window
Rolling annualised volatility (%)
n=19 · μ=97.9454 · σ=19.0391 · range [57.5091, 130.6238] · R²=0.292▲ RISING +9.82%σ EXTREME 19.44%LAST 119.5635130.6238112.345194.066475.787857.5091μ = 97.9454max 130.6238min 57.5091dataMA(3)OLS R²=0.29μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
latest 119.56% · range [57.51%, 130.62%] · μ 97.95% · σ̂ scaled to annualised (×√8760)
Rolling lag-1 autocorrelation ρ(1)
n=19 · +13 / −6 (68% positive) · μ=0.078 · σ=0.312MOMENTUM / PERSISTENCELAST 0.287 (+0.67σ vs μ)0.6010.3000.000-0.300-0.601μ = 0.0780.2210.2210.2020.202-0.066-0.0660.4450.4450.5570.5570.1470.1470.2930.2930.4310.4310.1580.158-0.248-0.248-0.353-0.353-0.220-0.220-0.601-0.601-0.349-0.3490.0890.0890.0080.0080.1310.1310.3430.3430.2870.287v > 0 · positivev < 0 · negativeμ mean lineμ ± σ bandlatest bar (outlined)
latest 0.287 · |ρ| > 0.3 ⇒ regime with persistence (ρ > 0) or reversal (ρ < 0) · |ρ| ≤ 0.1 = consistent with random walk

§14 · Hypothesis tests (α = 0.05)

Formal inference at 5% significance
1 of 6 REJECT · mixed evidence1 reject·5 pass·α = 0.05
𝒩

Jarque-Bera

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Δln-r ~ Normal(μ, σ²)

STATISTIC
0.3598
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.8353
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainednormality not rejected
ρ

Ljung-Box(h=5)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: No serial autocorrelation up to lag 5

STATISTIC
7.0554
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.2154
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedconsistent with white noise
Ψ

Dickey-Fuller (τ_μ)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: p has a unit root (non-stationary)

STATISTIC
-0.5647
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.8710
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedrandom-walk behaviour (crit ≈ -2.86)
±

Wald-Wolfowitz runs

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Sign sequence of Δ is random

STATISTIC
-1.5763
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.1149
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedsigns appear random (9 runs)
χ

KPSS (μ stationarity)

REJECT H₀**

H₀: p IS level-stationary

STATISTIC
0.8759
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.0047
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p < α · rejection zonenon-stationary (crit 0.463)
χ

Variance ratio q=3

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Δln-r is a random walk · VR = 1

STATISTIC
0.0435
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.9653
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedVR 1.013 ≈ 1 (RW behaviour)
Each row states an explicit null H₀, the test statistic, an approximated p-value, and the decision. REJECT means evidence against H₀. KPSS complements ADF (rejecting both ⇒ ambiguous; rejecting one ⇒ clean verdict).

§15 · Spectral analysis (DFT periodogram)

Power spectrum of Δln-r · ‖X̂(k)‖²/n
n=12 bins · noise floor μ=1.05e-4 · top T=8.00h (20.7%) · top-3 cover 52.2%2 SIGNIFICANT CYCLEScumulative energy ↗ (2 bins above 2× noise)2.6e-42.0e-41.3e-46.5e-50.0e+0μ noise floor2× noise (significance)period 24.0 · power 4.54e-5 · 3.6% energyperiod 24.0 · power 4.54e-5 · 3.6% energyperiod 12.0 · power 9.35e-5 · 7.4% energyperiod 12.0 · power 9.35e-5 · 7.4% energyperiod 8.0 · power 2.61e-4 · 20.7% energyperiod 8.0 · power 2.61e-4 · 20.7% energyperiod 6.0 · power 1.21e-4 · 9.6% energyperiod 6.0 · power 1.21e-4 · 9.6% energyperiod 4.8 · power 1.33e-4 · 10.6% energyperiod 4.8 · power 1.33e-4 · 10.6% energyperiod 4.0 · power 2.55e-4 · 20.3% energyperiod 4.0 · power 2.55e-4 · 20.3% energyperiod 3.4 · power 1.96e-5 · 1.6% energyperiod 3.4 · power 1.96e-5 · 1.6% energyperiod 3.0 · power 8.04e-5 · 6.4% energyperiod 3.0 · power 8.04e-5 · 6.4% energyperiod 2.7 · power 1.41e-4 · 11.2% energyperiod 2.7 · power 1.41e-4 · 11.2% energyperiod 2.4 · power 9.71e-5 · 7.7% energyperiod 2.4 · power 9.71e-5 · 7.7% energyperiod 2.2 · power 7.63e-7 · 0.1% energyperiod 2.2 · power 7.63e-7 · 0.1% energyperiod 2.0 · power 1.05e-5 · 0.8% energyperiod 2.0 · power 1.05e-5 · 0.8% energy50% by T=4.8h#1 dominantT=8.00h#2T=4.00h#3T=2.67hT=2hT=3hT=4hT=6hT=8hT=12hT=16hT=24h← shorter cycle (high freq · Nyquist=½) · period T (bars per cycle) · longer cycle (low freq · 1/n) →#1 dominant#2 peak#3 peak> 2× noisenoiseμ floor2μ sig.cum energy
dominant period ≈ 8.00h (freq 0.125) · concentrates 20.7% of total energy · Σ|X̂|²/n = 1.259e-3

▸ Depth section using sovereign-store price series (5000 bars · effective 5257847 bars/year) — annualisation reflects native polling cadence, not upstream timeframes.

§16 · NOSTRADAMUS continuous quant — perp leverage & bootstrap MC

Continuous-price extension of the prediction-market quant module. Kelly growth on observed returns (Merton μ/σ² parametric vs argmax empirical), Monte-Carlo equity fan bootstrapped from the historical return distribution at quarter-Kelly leverage, and an annualized return decomposition. Sweep parameters in the simulator.

§17 · Continuous Kelly

Continuous-Kelly growth · g(f) = E[ln(1 + f·r)]
NO LONG EDGE · μ -0.001% per barparametric μ/σ² short edge (μ<0) · μ -0.001% · σ 0.05%
μ per barmean
-0.001%
σ per barvol
0.05%
Empirical f★argmax g(f)
0.00×
from observed distribution
Parametric f★μ/σ²
-45.07×
Merton continuous-time
Half-Kelly½ f★
0.00×
~⅔ of full growth, half the variance
Quarter-Kelly¼ f★
0.00×
industry default — survives model error
-0.01%0.02%0.04%0.07%0.10%0.0×1.6×3.2×4.8×6.4×8.0×leverage fraction fexpected log-growth per bar
g(f) empiricalf★ argmaxparametric f★
Maximum expected log-growth from leveraging the historical return distribution. Empirical f★ argmaxes the sample expectation; parametric f★ = μ/σ² is Merton's continuous-time optimum.

§18 · MC equity fan

Bootstrapped equity fan at 0.10× leverage
Median CAGR/bar -0.000% · annualized Sharpe -53.23400 paths × 720 bars · leverage 0.10× · bootstrap from 4999 observed returns
Sharpe / barμ/σ
-0.023
annualized -53.23
μ per barafter L
-0.000%
σ per barafter L
0.01%
VaR 95%5%
0.01%
per-bar worst-case
CVaR 95%ES
0.01%
mean tail loss
Max DD (median)MDD
-0.1%
0.95×0.97×0.99×1.01×1.03×1.05×0120240360480600720startbar #equity multiple
median25/75 band5/95 band
Median path with 25/75 and 5/95 percentile bands across 400 simulated careers. Bars resample with replacement from the observed return distribution — preserves fat tails the parametric model misses.

§19 · Annualized breakdown

Annualized return components
APR -1000% · APY -100% · Sharpe -54.06σ ann 120% · Sortino -54.66 · n 4999 · ⚠ capped (n=4999 too small to support 8760-bar projection)
-6559%-5219%-3878%-2537%-1197%144%-1000.0%APR (simple)-100.0%APY (compound)120.0%Ann. vol σ-5406.5%Sharpe (ann)-5466.0%Sortino (ann)
Simple APR vs compounded APY · annualized volatility · risk-adjusted Sharpe and Sortino. All scaled by √(periods/yr).

§20 · GARCH(1,1) volatility band

GARCH(1,1) · conditional vol envelope (±2σ)
GARCH persistence α+β = 0.980· σ̂ₜ = 1.000% · long-run σ = 2.236%
0.1620.1680.1730.1780.1830.188t-4999t-4166t-3333t-2500t-1666t-833t-0

Persistence near 1 ⇒ vol clusters strongly (slow mean reversion). Long-run σ is the unconditional target the conditional vol orbits. The ±2σ band reflects time-varying scale, unlike a flat-vol band.

Time-varying volatility band fitted to the price series. Persistence α+β > 0.98 means vol shocks decay slowly — recent moves stay relevant.

§∞ · Provenance & attestation

Upstream
api.hyperliquid.xyz
Snapshot fetched
2026-06-14 14:28:37 UTC
Snapshot age
2.3s
History points
25 hourly closes
Page rendered
2026-06-14 14:28:39 UTC
Storage policy
no persistence — fetched on every request
SHA-256 attestation
ea2065be4d0ecd9a586e350a66ba671af5ab3af8d3dfecedd479fa6e60649f30 · deterministic hash of the source snapshot — proves this page was rendered from this exact data
Open data licence
CC0 / public domain · free to mirror, syndicate, analyse

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Also see: /arb opportunities · RSS feed

Market depth

▸ live order book · Hyperliquid perp
Depth within 1bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Depth within 5bp
$406
bid $193 · ask $212
Depth within 10bp
$4.17K
bid $193 · ask $3.98K
Depth within 50bp
$24.75K
bid $10.23K · ask $14.53K
Mid price
0.169650
(best bid + best ask) / 2
Spread
7.1bp
(bestAsk − bestBid) / mid
Imbalance (whole book)
-0.060
ask-heavy
Imbalance (top-5)
-0.168
ask-heavy top-of-book

Slippage scenarios

▸ live book walk · Hyperliquid perp

Simulating a market order at three notionals against the live book. Slippage = avg execution price vs. mid, in basis points. Worst fill = price of the deepest level touched. Live JSON: /api/asset/hl-IO/slippage?size=10000&side=buy

SideNotionalAvg fillSlippageWorst fillLevelsStatus
BUY$1.00K0.1697405.29bp0.1697503FILLED
BUY$10.00K0.16987213.11bp0.17005013FILLED
BUY$100.00K0.16997719.27bp0.17040020PARTIAL
SELL$1.00K0.1694879.62bp0.1694603FILLED
SELL$10.00K0.16924224.07bp0.16890015FILLED
SELL$100.00K0.16912630.90bp0.16858020PARTIAL

Funding carry

▸ SHORTS PAY · longs receive
Hourly funding
-9.027e-5
-0.00903% / hr
Annualised APR
-79.131%
hourly · 24 · 365.25
Long: days to 1% carry
4.6d
longs receive
Short: days to 1% carry
4.6d
shorts pay
SideDirectionAnnualised carryDays → 1%Days → 10%
LONGRECEIVE79.131%4.6d46.2d
SHORTPAY-79.131%4.6d46.2d

/api/asset/hl-IO/carry · same metrics, JSON

Volume profile

▸ real volume · Hyperliquid candlesstep $ 1 · 25 records
Price binBarsVolumeDistribution
$0.000000–$1.0000★25$4.22M

★ POC = Point of Control (highest-volume bin). Live JSON: /api/asset/hl-IO/volprofile?priceStep=1

Order flow

▸ BID-LEAN · +0.022 · Hyperliquid candles
Bars (buy / sell)
10 / 14
1 unclassified
Buy weight
$2.07M
real volume
Sell weight
$1.98M
real volume
Net delta
$90.70K
buyers net
Imbalance
2.24%
(buy − sell) / (buy + sell)
Toxicity (VPIN)
2.2%
two-sided / balanced
Impact (|Δp|/vol)
—
needs real volume

Sparkline = cumulative delta over the 25-record window./api/asset/hl-IO/flow?rollingWindow=30

Cascade clusters

▸ DOWN · 4 found · deepest 5.04% · Hyperliquid candles

Price-only proxy for forced-unwind clusters. No exchange liquidation feed is wired — read each row as a candidate event, not a confirmed liquidation.

#WindowDurationPeak → TroughDrawdownBars
#12026-06-14 11:00:00Z3.0h0.178500→0.1695105.036%4
#22026-06-13 22:00:00Z3.0h0.184420→0.1782403.351%4
#32026-06-13 16:00:00Z2.0h0.186800→0.1808203.201%3

/api/asset/hl-IO/cascades?windowMs=10800000&minDrawdownPct=0.005 · full list + parameters in JSON

Risk metrics

▸ sovereign store · 5,000 barsperiods/year ≈ 5.26M
Realized vol (annualised)
119.97%
σ per bar = 0.000523
Mean return (annualised)
-6486.10%
μ per bar = -0.000012
Sharpe (rf=0)
-54.06
annualised; risk-free assumed zero
Max drawdown
6.46%
peak 0.18 → trough 0.17 over 4883 bars

/api/asset/hl-IO/risk · same metrics, JSON