HYPERLIQUID · PERPETUAL FUTURES

HYPE

HYPE-USD perpetual · 24/7 trading on Hyperliquid

▸ Advanced metrics · M2M bundle

hyperliquid · perp-hype · fresh · feed 1s old
24h sparkline · 60 pts▼ -0.02%
realized vol (ann.)
66.63%
max drawdown
2.01%
sharpe
-39.63
ulcer index
0.78%
RMS drawdown
pain index
0.61%
mean drawdown
mod. VaR 95%
0.05%
Cornish-Fisher
martin ratio
-3397.03
ret / ulcer
CDaR 95%
1.90%
cond. drawdown
gain/pain
0.95
Σgain / Σ|loss|
sterling
-1392.93
ret / CDaR
omega (θ=0)
0.95
upside/downside
roll spread
0.0 bps
implied (price-only)
bars used
2000
store
spread
—
24h Δ
-0.02%
flow lean
—
carry
longs_pay
10.95%
signalNEUTRALconfidence 35%
  • funding: longs pay — perp shorts get paid to wait
Same bundle via M2M API: /api/m2m/hl-HYPE/bundle · venue execution: hyperliquid →
LIVEPOLL0SRCFRESH1.3s⏱--:--:-- UTC8NEXT8.0sUP0s--:--HIST0/30
▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC FRESH·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC FRESH·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·
MARK · live
$60.124
24h Δ · live
-0.02%
24h vol · live
$293.4M
HYPE · live 24h price
n=25 · μ=60.3467 · σ=0.4996 · range [59.0000, 61.0600] · R²=0.279▼ FALLING -0.22%σ LOW 0.83%LAST 60.128061.060060.545060.030059.515059.0000μ = 60.3467max 61.0600min 59.0000dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.28μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxminlive endpoint
25 closes · last $60.13
Funding direction · live
Long fee 48.1%Short fee 51.9%SHORT FEE51.9%
Σ = 0.0%
Σ-sides total = 0.00% (100.00pp arb gap)
H(p) entropy = 0.999 / 1.00 bits (100%) · max uncertainty (~50/50)
Long fee
48.1%▬ +0.00pp
Short fee
51.9%▬ +0.00pp
1h funding 0.001250% · longs pay
Hourly contract volume · live
n=25 · Σ=5,117,596 · μ=204703.8 · σ=96713.4 · CV=0.47STEADY FLOWcumulative energy ↗ · 50% by h=130106,948213,897320,845427,793μ = 204704427,793.3250%h1h5h9h13h17h21h25#1 peak#2-3> μactivequietμ linecum energy
peak 427793 contracts
Live numerics · pulse on poll
LIVE NUMERICS9 metrics·POLL 0
⏱snapshot age
1.3s
$mark $
$60.124
$mid $
$60.1225
◉prev-day close
$60.139
Δ24h Δ %
-0.025%
$24h vol $
$293.41M
◐open interest $
$1.24B
%funding (1h)
0.001250%
%funding (yr)
+10.95%/yr

§1 · 24h time-series

Close price · hourly
n=25 · μ=60.3467 · σ=0.4996 · range [59.0000, 61.0600] · R²=0.279▼ FALLING -0.22%σ LOW 0.83%LAST 60.128061.060060.545060.030059.515059.0000μ = 60.3467max 61.0600min 59.0000dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.28μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
mark $60.1240 · 24h -0.02% · range $[59.0000, 61.0600]
OHLC candles · hourly
n=25 · up 15 · down 10 (60% up) · range [58.9240, 61.6100] · σ=0.4996 · CV=0.01 · bodyµ=46%BULLISH +1.88%CLOSE 60.1280 vs OPEN 59.0190 (+1.88%)&#9650; CLOSE 60.128061.610060.938560.267059.595558.9240μ close = 60.34672.1%O59.019 H60.273 L58.946 C60.260 (+2.10%)O59.019 H60.273 L58.946 C60.260 (+2.10%)O60.265 H60.465 L59.769 C59.926 (-0.56%)O60.265 H60.465 L59.769 C59.926 (-0.56%)O59.926 H60.295 L59.477 C60.191 (+0.44%)O59.926 H60.295 L59.477 C60.191 (+0.44%)O60.191 H60.246 L58.970 C59.000 (-1.98%)O60.191 H60.246 L58.970 C59.000 (-1.98%)O59.000 H59.872 L58.924 C59.864 (+1.46%)O59.000 H59.872 L58.924 C59.864 (+1.46%)O59.865 H60.003 L59.650 C59.900 (+0.06%)O59.865 H60.003 L59.650 C59.900 (+0.06%)O59.899 H60.015 L59.640 C59.924 (+0.04%)O59.899 H60.015 L59.640 C59.924 (+0.04%)O59.920 H60.697 L59.792 C60.509 (+0.98%)O59.920 H60.697 L59.792 C60.509 (+0.98%)O60.504 H60.545 L60.229 C60.237 (-0.44%)O60.504 H60.545 L60.229 C60.237 (-0.44%)O60.236 H60.881 L60.153 C60.700 (+0.77%)O60.236 H60.881 L60.153 C60.700 (+0.77%)O60.686 H60.947 L60.401 C60.896 (+0.35%)O60.686 H60.947 L60.401 C60.896 (+0.35%)O60.890 H61.096 L60.512 C60.600 (-0.48%)O60.890 H61.096 L60.512 C60.600 (-0.48%)O60.607 H61.238 L60.530 C60.839 (+0.38%)O60.607 H61.238 L60.530 C60.839 (+0.38%)O60.837 H60.930 L60.329 C60.573 (-0.43%)O60.837 H60.930 L60.329 C60.573 (-0.43%)O60.579 H60.634 L59.964 C60.102 (-0.79%)O60.579 H60.634 L59.964 C60.102 (-0.79%)O60.102 H60.211 L59.846 C59.947 (-0.26%)O60.102 H60.211 L59.846 C59.947 (-0.26%)O59.946 H60.310 L59.671 C59.891 (-0.09%)O59.946 H60.310 L59.671 C59.891 (-0.09%)O59.890 H60.540 L59.777 C60.081 (+0.32%)O59.890 H60.540 L59.777 C60.081 (+0.32%)O60.081 H60.339 L59.714 C60.247 (+0.28%)O60.081 H60.339 L59.714 C60.247 (+0.28%)O60.255 H60.917 L59.904 C60.862 (+1.01%)O60.255 H60.917 L59.904 C60.862 (+1.01%)O60.847 H61.610 L60.496 C61.013 (+0.27%)O60.847 H61.610 L60.496 C61.013 (+0.27%)O61.018 H61.277 L60.569 C61.033 (+0.02%)O61.018 H61.277 L60.569 C61.033 (+0.02%)O61.029 H61.323 L60.683 C60.885 (-0.24%)O61.029 H61.323 L60.683 C60.885 (-0.24%)O60.884 H61.311 L60.618 C61.060 (+0.29%)O60.884 H61.311 L60.618 C61.060 (+0.29%)O61.059 H61.086 L60.079 C60.128 (-1.52%)O61.059 H61.086 L60.079 C60.128 (-1.52%)#1#5#9#13#17#21#25up bar (C≥O)down bar (C<O)MA(5) closeμ closedoji (~no body)biggest body
25 bars
Hourly volume (base units)
n=25 · Σ=5,117,596 · μ=204703.8 · σ=96713.4 · CV=0.47STEADY FLOWcumulative energy &nearr; · 50% by h=130106,948213,897320,845427,793μ = 204704427,793.32427,793.32 · 100.0% peak427,793.32 · 100.0% peak231,934.42 · 54.2% peak231,934.42 · 54.2% peak285,410.48 · 66.7% peak285,410.48 · 66.7% peak354,455.69 · 82.9% peak354,455.69 · 82.9% peak154,496.55 · 36.1% peak154,496.55 · 36.1% peak99,458.27 · 23.2% peak99,458.27 · 23.2% peak77,600.07 · 18.1% peak77,600.07 · 18.1% peak227,139.53 · 53.1% peak227,139.53 · 53.1% peak175,241.66 · 41.0% peak175,241.66 · 41.0% peak157,314.39 · 36.8% peak157,314.39 · 36.8% peak105,444.4 · 24.6% peak105,444.4 · 24.6% peak134,774.52 · 31.5% peak134,774.52 · 31.5% peak294,308.49 · 68.8% peak294,308.49 · 68.8% peak191,549.42 · 44.8% peak191,549.42 · 44.8% peak239,001.17 · 55.9% peak239,001.17 · 55.9% peak133,586.08 · 31.2% peak133,586.08 · 31.2% peak139,316.68 · 32.6% peak139,316.68 · 32.6% peak295,175.92 · 69.0% peak295,175.92 · 69.0% peak87,124.56 · 20.4% peak87,124.56 · 20.4% peak176,416.65 · 41.2% peak176,416.65 · 41.2% peak413,529.05 · 96.7% peak413,529.05 · 96.7% peak185,982.44 · 43.5% peak185,982.44 · 43.5% peak109,999.26 · 25.7% peak109,999.26 · 25.7% peak175,554.77 · 41.0% peak175,554.77 · 41.0% peak244,987.97 · 57.3% peak244,987.97 · 57.3% peak50%#1#5#9#13#17#21#25#1 peak#2-3> μactivequietμ linecum energy
Σ vol 5117596 · peak 427793 · CV 0.47

§2 · Returns distribution (log-returns)

Histogram of rₜ = ln(pₜ/pₜ₋₁)
n=24 · 12 bins · μ=0.0003 · σ=0.0072 · skew=-0.75 (left-skewed) · kurt=0.82 (mesokurtic)65320 1-185.47bpbin -185.47bp · n=1 · 16.7% peakbin -185.47bp · n=1 · 16.7% peak 1-156.70bpbin -156.70bp · n=1 · 16.7% peakbin -156.70bp · n=1 · 16.7% peak-127.93bp-99.16bp 1-70.39bpbin -70.39bp · n=1 · 16.7% peakbin -70.39bp · n=1 · 16.7% peak 4-41.62bpbin -41.62bp · n=4 · 66.7% peakbin -41.62bp · n=4 · 66.7% peak 3-12.85bpbin -12.85bp · n=3 · 50.0% peakbin -12.85bp · n=3 · 50.0% peak 615.92bpbin 15.92bp · n=6 · 100.0% peakbin 15.92bp · n=6 · 100.0% peak 444.69bpbin 44.69bp · n=4 · 66.7% peakbin 44.69bp · n=4 · 66.7% peak 173.46bpbin 73.46bp · n=1 · 16.7% peakbin 73.46bp · n=1 · 16.7% peak 2102.22bpbin 102.22bp · n=2 · 33.3% peakbin 102.22bp · n=2 · 33.3% peak 1130.99bpbin 130.99bp · n=1 · 16.7% peakbin 130.99bp · n=1 · 16.7% peakμΔ < 0 · loss barsΔ ≈ 0 · flatΔ > 0 · gain barsN(μ,σ²) referenceμ line · ±σ band shaded
n=24 · positive 14 · negative 10
Q-Q plot · standardised rₜ vs N(0,1)
n=24 · skew=-0.64 · kurt=0.79 · near 21 / mid 3 / far 0 · OLS slope=1.00 intercept=-0.00APPROXIMATELY NORMALUPPER TAIL NORMALLOWER TAIL NORMAL-3σ-3σ-2σ-2σ-1σ-1σ+0σ+0σ+1σ+1σ+2σ+2σ+3σ+3σsample ↓marginal: sample bars + theoretical N(0,1) curve →theoretical Φ⁻¹(p) →↑ sample z-quantile|Δ| < 0.3σ · on the line|Δ| < 1σ · moderate|Δ| ≥ 1σ · outliery = x refOLS fit

§3 · Spot quote

Mark price
$60.124
Mid price
$60.1225
24h change
-0.02%
Mark–mid spread
0.25 bps
Prev-day close
$60.139

§4 · Sample moments (prices)

Descriptive statistics · 5-number summary · shape diagnostics
SAMPLE MOMENTS · N=25APPROXIMATELY NORMAL · WELL-BEHAVED
μ MEAN60.3467$95% CI: [60.1509$, 60.5426$]
σ STD DEV0.4996$σ² = 0.250 · CV = 0.83%
med MEDIAN60.2470$Q₁ 59.9470$ · Q₃ 60.8390$
FIVE-NUMBER SUMMARY · BOX PLOTrange 2.0600$ · IQR 0.8920$ (1.349σ→0.6740$)
min 59.0000$Q₁ 59.9470$med 60.2470$Q₃ 60.8390$max 61.0600$μ
SKEWNESS · G₁-0.439approximately symmetric
−3−10+1+3
EXCESS KURTOSIS · G₂-0.091mesokurtic · normal-like
−30+2+4+6
μ ↔ medianμ > med · right-tailed|μ−med| / σ = 0.20
σ × 1.349 ↔ IQRdiverges from normalratio = 0.76
range ↔ σwide tails (range > 4σ)range / σ = 4.12
μ = mean · σ = standard deviation · CV = coefficient of variation. Skew (G₁): >0 right-skewed. Kurt (G₂, excess): >0 leptokurtic. 95% CI = μ ± 1.96·SE.

§5 · Returns analytics (log-returns)

Risk-adjusted performance · log-returns
RETURNS · RISK-ADJUSTEDUNPROFITABLE · SR=-1.12
μᵣ MEAN / h-0.009137%drift is negative per h · |μ|/σ = 0.012
σᵣ STD / h0.766081%σ²ᵣ = 0.587×10⁻⁴ · CV = 83.84×
σ ANNUALISED71.70%/yrscaled by √8760 (hourly→yearly) · 0.766%/h base
RISK-ADJUSTED PERFORMANCEhigher = better edge per unit risk
SHARPE (annualised)-1.12negative edge
-2-10+1+2+3+4
SORTINO (annualised)-0.95downside drag
-2-10+1+2+3+4
CALMAR (return / max-DD)-38.28drawdown overwhelms returns
-20+2+4+6
RETURN-DISTRIBUTION SHAPE|skew| < 0.5 ≈ symmetric · |kurt| < 1 ≈ mesokurtic
SKEWNESS · G₁-0.68left-skewed · heavy negative tail
-3-10+1+3
EXCESS KURTOSIS · G₂1.28leptokurtic · fat tails
-30+2+4+6
SORTINO vs SHARPEdownside vol < total vol · favourableSoR / SR = 0.85
CALMAR · DD CONTROLdrawdown > returns · adverseCR = -38.28
EXPECTED EDGE-80.04%/yr driftμ × 8760 = annualised expectation
rₜ = ln(pₜ/pₜ₋₁). σ × √8760 = annualised. Sharpe = μ/σ scaled; Sortino uses downside-only vol; Calmar = annual return / max drawdown.

§6 · Risk metrics

Tail risk + drawdown · downside diagnostics
TAIL & DRAWDOWN RISKHIGH · 95% VaR 1.42%
VaR₉₅ (h)1.425%5% prob of larger adverse h move
VaR₉₉ (h)1.893%1% prob · extreme-tail threshold
ES₉₅ (CVaR)1.768%expected loss given 5% tail event
MAX DRAWDOWN2.09%3h from peak to trough
TAIL-RISK LADDER (h losses)larger negative = worse · markers show severity
0 · no lossVaR₉₅−1.425%VaR₉₉−1.893%ES₉₅−1.768%worst tail ←→ zero loss
MAX DRAWDOWN PROFILEmoderate drawdown · 3h duration
PEAK6026.00$
−2.09% drawdown over 3h
5900.00$TROUGH
ES / VaR · TAIL THICKNESSmild tail heaviness|ES₉₅| / |VaR₉₅| = 1.24× (normal ≈ 1.25)
VaR₉₉ / VaR₉₅ · CONCENTRATIONmoderate extreme-tail concentrationratio = 1.33× (normal ≈ 1.41)
DRAWDOWN · CAPITAL DURATIONmoderate drawdownrecovery needed: +2.14% (compounding)
VaR = quantile loss · ES (CVaR) = expected loss conditional on tail · DD = peak-to-trough decline. Under normality ES₉₅/VaR₉₅ ≈ 1.25; ratio > 1.5 ⇒ fat-tail regime.

§7 · Technicals

RSI(14)
46.7 · neutral
Bollinger %B
0.298 · within band
Bollinger upper
$61.3205
Bollinger MA
$60.4713
Bollinger lower
$59.6222

§8 · Time-series structure

Regime & autocorrelation diagnostics
TIME-SERIES STRUCTUREREGIME: MEAN-REVERTING · ρ(1) -0.32 + ADF rejected
ρ(1) AUTOCORR-0.318within white-noise band
ρ(2) AUTOCORR+0.209lag-2 not significant
H · HURST EXPONENT0.955strongly persistent
OLS TREND · t-STAT+2.981significant @ α=0.05
HURST EXPONENT [0, 1]strongly persistent · H = 0.955
H = 0.955STRONGLY PERSISTENT
0
anti-persistent0.45
mean-reverting0.5
random walk0.55
persistent1
strongly trending
AUTOCORRELATION FUNCTION · ρ(k) for k=1..5WHITE NOISE · no significant lags
k=1-0.318k=2+0.209k=3+0.077k=4-0.331k=5-0.0030+1−1+0.41−0.41+ momentum (ρ > +0.41)− reversal (ρ < −0.41)noise (within band)±2/√n threshold
OLS TREND · t-STAT · [-5, +5]SIGNIFICANT @ 1% (|t|=2.98)
−5 reject−1.960 retain H₀+1.96+5 reject
REGIME CLASSIFICATIONMEAN-REVERTING · ρ(1) -0.32 + ADF rejectedfrom Hurst + ρ(1) joint diagnosis
PREDICTABILITY · score 1.00very high · strong structure|ρ(1)| + 2·|H − 0.5| heuristic
TREND SIGNIFICANCESIGNIFICANT @ 1% (|t|=2.98)α=0.05 critical |t|=1.96 · α=0.01 |t|=2.58
ρ(k) = lag-k sample autocorrelation · H = R/S Hurst exponent · t = OLS-trend t-statistic. Significance bands at ±2/√n approximate the 95% white-noise envelope. α=0.05 critical |t|=1.96; α=0.01 |t|=2.58.

§9 · Microstructure

24h volume (USD)
$293.41M
Open interest (USD)
$1.24B
Vol / OI (turnover)
0.24x
1h funding
0.001250%
Funding (annualised)
+10.95%/yr

§10 · Position sizing

Continuous Kelly (μ/σ²)
-1.557× leverage · optimal log-utility leverage
Half-Kelly
-0.778× · industry-standard conservative
Quarter-Kelly
-0.389×

§11 · Hourly return heatmap

24-hour signed Δln-r grid · green = up · red = down
HOURLY RETURN HEATMAP · n=24 bars · best 1.45% · worst -2.00% · typical |Δ| 0.56%MILD BEARISH -0.22%BEST+1.45%18hWORST-2.00%17hTYPICAL |Δ|0.56%mean absoluteCUMULATIVE-0.22%Σ signed ΔSTREAK↘ 1down-runASIA · 00-08 UTCμ -0.13% · Σ -1.03%EUROPE · 08-16 UTCμ -0.06% · Σ -0.48%US · 16-24 UTCμ +0.16% · Σ +1.28%CUMULATIVE Δ PATH · final -0.22%+1.32%-2.11%-0.56% · 15h-0.56% · 15h-0.56%15h0.44% · 16h0.44% · 16h0.44%16h-2.00% · 17h-2.00% · 17h-2.00%17h▼ WORST1.45% · 18h1.45% · 18h1.45%18h★ BEST0.06% · 19h0.06% · 19h0.06%19h0.04% · 20h0.04% · 20h0.04%20h0.97% · 21h0.97% · 21h0.97%21h-0.45% · 22h-0.45% · 22h-0.45%22h0.77% · 23h0.77% · 23h0.77%23h0.32% · 00h0.32% · 00h0.32%00h-0.49% · 01h-0.49% · 01h-0.49%01h0.39% · 02h0.39% · 02h0.39%02h-0.44% · 03h-0.44% · 03h-0.44%03h-0.78% · 04h-0.78% · 04h-0.78%04h-0.26% · 05h-0.26% · 05h-0.26%05h-0.09% · 06h-0.09% · 06h-0.09%06h0.32% · 07h0.32% · 07h0.32%07h0.28% · 08h0.28% · 08h0.28%08h1.02% · 09h1.02% · 09h1.02%09h0.25% · 10h0.25% · 10h0.25%10h0.03% · 11h0.03% · 11h0.03%11h-0.24% · 12h-0.24% · 12h-0.24%12h0.29% · 13h0.29% · 13h0.29%13h-1.54% · 14h-1.54% · 14h-1.54%14hTIME PATTERNUS-led (+1.28%)RUNSup max 5 · down max 4BREADTH58% up · 42% down
14 up bars · 10 down · best 1.45% · worst -2.00% · typical |Δ| 0.561%

§12 · Equity curve & underwater drawdown

Cumulative compounded return + running peak-to-trough
EQUITY & DRAWDOWN ANALYSIS · n=25 barsLOSS WITH MODERATE DD (-0.29%)FINAL-0.29%MAX DD-2.11%RECOVERYONGOING · 6 barsMAX RUN-UP+1.27%UNDERWATER18/25 (72%)STREAK↘ 1EQUITY CURVE · end 0.9971 · peak 1.0127 · range [0.9789, 1.0127]1.01270.9789break-even = 1★ PEAK 1.0127UNDERWATER DRAWDOWN · max -2.11% · moderate0%-2.11%▼ TROUGH -2.11%TOP DRAWDOWN PERIODS · 5 total#1 -2.11%bar 2-7 · 6 bars · recovered#2 -1.66%bar 12-20 · 9 bars · recovered#3 -1.54%bar 25-25 · 1 bars · ONGOINGDD SEVERITYmoderate (max -2.11%)RECOVERYongoing · 24 barsTIME UNDER WATER72% of session · 18/25 bars
final equity 0.9971 (-0.29%) · max DD -2.11% · time-under-water 18/25 bars

§13 · Rolling-window statistics (w = 6 bars)

Rolling annualised Sharpe ratio · green positive · red negative
n=19 · +12 / −7 (63% positive) · μ=14.21 · σ=40.22MIXED EDGELAST -3.64 (-0.44σ vs μ)72.7136.350.00-36.35-72.71μ = 14.21-7.61-7.6112.6812.680.990.9962.5862.5851.2151.2129.7929.7938.9038.903.043.04-5.71-5.71-41.43-41.43-64.59-64.59-29.87-29.87-36.08-36.0812.1912.1953.3553.3572.7172.7161.2861.2860.2460.24-3.64-3.64v > 0 · positivev < 0 · negativeμ mean lineμ ± σ bandlatest bar (outlined)
latest -3.637 · range [-64.59, 72.71] · μ 14.211 · positive Sharpe = excess-return-per-risk earned by buying-and-holding through this window
Rolling annualised volatility (%)
n=19 · μ=59.1426 · σ=25.3913 · range [36.0533, 112.7708] · R²=0.413▼ FALLING -26.00%σ EXTREME 42.93%LAST 79.3587112.770893.591474.412055.232736.0533μ = 59.1426max 112.7708min 36.0533dataMA(3)OLS R²=0.41μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
latest 79.36% · range [36.05%, 112.77%] · μ 59.14% · σ̂ scaled to annualised (×√8760)
Rolling lag-1 autocorrelation ρ(1)
n=19 · +7 / −12 (37% positive) · μ=-0.182 · σ=0.352CLOSE TO MARTINGALELAST -0.069 (+0.32σ vs μ)0.7040.3520.000-0.352-0.704μ = -0.182-0.603-0.603-0.509-0.509-0.447-0.447-0.468-0.468-0.704-0.704-0.542-0.542-0.534-0.534-0.432-0.4320.0310.031-0.266-0.266-0.215-0.2150.1190.1190.5210.5210.2900.2900.1770.177-0.064-0.0640.1290.1290.1210.121-0.069-0.069v > 0 · positivev < 0 · negativeμ mean lineμ ± σ bandlatest bar (outlined)
latest -0.069 · |ρ| > 0.3 ⇒ regime with persistence (ρ > 0) or reversal (ρ < 0) · |ρ| ≤ 0.1 = consistent with random walk

§14 · Hypothesis tests (α = 0.05)

Formal inference at 5% significance
ALL TESTS PASS · data behaves as nominal0 reject·6 pass·α = 0.05
𝒩

Jarque-Bera

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Δln-r ~ Normal(μ, σ²)

STATISTIC
3.5071
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.1732
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainednormality not rejected
ρ

Ljung-Box(h=5)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: No serial autocorrelation up to lag 5

STATISTIC
7.5933
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.1789
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedconsistent with white noise
Ψ

Dickey-Fuller (τ_μ)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: p has a unit root (non-stationary)

STATISTIC
-2.3548
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.1633
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedrandom-walk behaviour (crit ≈ -2.86)
±

Wald-Wolfowitz runs

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Sign sequence of Δ is random

STATISTIC
0.1433
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.8861
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedsigns appear random (13 runs)
χ

KPSS (μ stationarity)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: p IS level-stationary

STATISTIC
0.3694
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.0903
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedstationary not rejected (crit 0.463)
χ

Variance ratio q=3

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Δln-r is a random walk · VR = 1

STATISTIC
-1.1300
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.2585
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedVR 0.656 ≈ 1 (RW behaviour)
Each row states an explicit null H₀, the test statistic, an approximated p-value, and the decision. REJECT means evidence against H₀. KPSS complements ADF (rejecting both ⇒ ambiguous; rejecting one ⇒ clean verdict).

§15 · Spectral analysis (DFT periodogram)

Power spectrum of Δln-r · ‖X̂(k)‖²/n
n=12 bins · noise floor μ=5.63e-5 · top T=2.67h (32.5%) · top-3 cover 73.6%BROADBAND · 3 CYCLEScumulative energy ↗ (3 bins above 2× noise)2.2e-41.6e-41.1e-45.5e-50.0e+0μ noise floor2× noise (significance)period 24.0 · power 8.39e-6 · 1.2% energyperiod 24.0 · power 8.39e-6 · 1.2% energyperiod 12.0 · power 1.59e-4 · 23.6% energyperiod 12.0 · power 1.59e-4 · 23.6% energyperiod 8.0 · power 1.70e-5 · 2.5% energyperiod 8.0 · power 1.70e-5 · 2.5% energyperiod 6.0 · power 6.69e-6 · 1.0% energyperiod 6.0 · power 6.69e-6 · 1.0% energyperiod 4.8 · power 8.56e-7 · 0.1% energyperiod 4.8 · power 8.56e-7 · 0.1% energyperiod 4.0 · power 1.77e-6 · 0.3% energyperiod 4.0 · power 1.77e-6 · 0.3% energyperiod 3.4 · power 3.99e-5 · 5.9% energyperiod 3.4 · power 3.99e-5 · 5.9% energyperiod 3.0 · power 7.04e-5 · 10.4% energyperiod 3.0 · power 7.04e-5 · 10.4% energyperiod 2.7 · power 2.20e-4 · 32.5% energyperiod 2.7 · power 2.20e-4 · 32.5% energyperiod 2.4 · power 1.18e-4 · 17.5% energyperiod 2.4 · power 1.18e-4 · 17.5% energyperiod 2.2 · power 3.23e-5 · 4.8% energyperiod 2.2 · power 3.23e-5 · 4.8% energyperiod 2.0 · power 5.33e-7 · 0.1% energyperiod 2.0 · power 5.33e-7 · 0.1% energy50% by T=2.7h#1 dominantT=2.67h#2T=12.00h#3T=2.40hT=2hT=3hT=4hT=6hT=8hT=12hT=16hT=24h← shorter cycle (high freq · Nyquist=½) · period T (bars per cycle) · longer cycle (low freq · 1/n) →#1 dominant#2 peak#3 peak> 2× noisenoiseμ floor2μ sig.cum energy
dominant period ≈ 2.67h (freq 0.375) · concentrates 32.5% of total energy · Σ|X̂|²/n = 6.752e-4

▸ Depth section using sovereign-store price series (5000 bars · effective 5257847 bars/year) — annualisation reflects native polling cadence, not upstream timeframes.

§16 · NOSTRADAMUS continuous quant — perp leverage & bootstrap MC

Continuous-price extension of the prediction-market quant module. Kelly growth on observed returns (Merton μ/σ² parametric vs argmax empirical), Monte-Carlo equity fan bootstrapped from the historical return distribution at quarter-Kelly leverage, and an annualized return decomposition. Sweep parameters in the simulator.

§17 · Continuous Kelly

Continuous-Kelly growth · g(f) = E[ln(1 + f·r)]
NO LONG EDGE · μ -0.000% per barparametric μ/σ² -0.25× · μ -0.000% · σ 0.03%
μ per barmean
-0.000%
σ per barvol
0.03%
Empirical f★argmax g(f)
0.00×
from observed distribution
Parametric f★μ/σ²
-0.25×
Merton continuous-time
Half-Kelly½ f★
0.00×
~⅔ of full growth, half the variance
Quarter-Kelly¼ f★
0.00×
industry default — survives model error
-0.00%0.02%0.05%0.07%0.10%0.0×0.3×0.7×1.0×1.3×1.6×leverage fraction fexpected log-growth per bar
g(f) empiricalf★ argmaxparametric f★
Maximum expected log-growth from leveraging the historical return distribution. Empirical f★ argmaxes the sample expectation; parametric f★ = μ/σ² is Merton's continuous-time optimum.

§18 · MC equity fan

Bootstrapped equity fan at 0.10× leverage
Median CAGR/bar -0.000% · annualized Sharpe -2.41400 paths × 720 bars · leverage 0.10× · bootstrap from 4999 observed returns
Sharpe / barμ/σ
-0.001
annualized -2.41
μ per barafter L
-0.000%
σ per barafter L
0.00%
VaR 95%5%
0.00%
per-bar worst-case
CVaR 95%ES
0.01%
mean tail loss
Max DD (median)MDD
-0.0%
0.95×0.97×0.99×1.01×1.03×1.05×0120240360480600720startbar #equity multiple
median25/75 band5/95 band
Median path with 25/75 and 5/95 percentile bands across 400 simulated careers. Bars resample with replacement from the observed return distribution — preserves fat tails the parametric model misses.

§19 · Annualized breakdown

Annualized return components
APR -10% · APY -27% · Sharpe -0.16σ ann 65% · Sortino -0.15 · n 4999
-32%-10%12%34%56%78%-10.5%APR (simple)-27.0%APY (compound)64.7%Ann. vol σ-16.2%Sharpe (ann)-15.4%Sortino (ann)
Simple APR vs compounded APY · annualized volatility · risk-adjusted Sharpe and Sortino. All scaled by √(periods/yr).

§20 · GARCH(1,1) volatility band

GARCH(1,1) · conditional vol envelope (±2σ)
GARCH persistence α+β = 0.980· σ̂ₜ = 1.000% · long-run σ = 2.236%
57.34058.68560.03061.37662.72164.067t-4999t-4166t-3333t-2500t-1666t-833t-0

Persistence near 1 ⇒ vol clusters strongly (slow mean reversion). Long-run σ is the unconditional target the conditional vol orbits. The ±2σ band reflects time-varying scale, unlike a flat-vol band.

Time-varying volatility band fitted to the price series. Persistence α+β > 0.98 means vol shocks decay slowly — recent moves stay relevant.

§∞ · Provenance & attestation

Upstream
api.hyperliquid.xyz
Snapshot fetched
2026-06-14 14:31:30 UTC
Snapshot age
1.3s
History points
25 hourly closes
Page rendered
2026-06-14 14:31:32 UTC
Storage policy
no persistence — fetched on every request
SHA-256 attestation
9fd494d3a42c21c769b3c00200b825200def5cf7e76a2e4dbbd24eadbcdd7784 · deterministic hash of the source snapshot — proves this page was rendered from this exact data
Open data licence
CC0 / public domain · free to mirror, syndicate, analyse

§∞-2 · Related markets · explore more

HL PREDGermany94.3¢HL PREDSpain90.0¢HL PREDUruguay66.7¢POLYMARKETWill Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?0¢POLYMARKETWill Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?0¢POLYMARKETWill Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?1¢HL PERPBTC-USD perpetual$64,098HL PERPETH-USD perpetual$1,664.3HL PERPHYPE-USD perpetual$60.12

Also see: /arb opportunities · RSS feed

Market depth

▸ live order book · Hyperliquid perp
Depth within 1bp
$31.88K
bid $26.35K · ask $5.53K
Depth within 5bp
$172.33K
bid $49.59K · ask $122.74K
Depth within 10bp
$180.43K
bid $57.69K · ask $122.74K
Depth within 50bp
$180.43K
bid $57.69K · ask $122.74K
Mid price
60.127500
(best bid + best ask) / 2
Spread
0.2bp
(bestAsk − bestBid) / mid
Imbalance (whole book)
-0.360
ask-heavy
Imbalance (top-5)
-0.261
ask-heavy top-of-book

Slippage scenarios

▸ live book walk · Hyperliquid perp

Simulating a market order at three notionals against the live book. Slippage = avg execution price vs. mid, in basis points. Worst fill = price of the deepest level touched. Live JSON: /api/asset/hl-HYPE/slippage?size=10000&side=buy

SideNotionalAvg fillSlippageWorst fillLevelsStatus
BUY$1.00K60.12800.08bp60.12801FILLED
BUY$10.00K60.13070.54bp60.13403FILLED
BUY$100.00K60.13931.96bp60.151018FILLED
SELL$1.00K60.12700.08bp60.12701FILLED
SELL$10.00K60.12700.08bp60.12701FILLED
SELL$100.00K60.11292.43bp60.093020PARTIAL

Funding carry

▸ LONGS PAY · shorts receive
Hourly funding
+1.250e-5
0.00125% / hr
Annualised APR
10.958%
hourly · 24 · 365.25
Long: days to 1% carry
33.3d
longs pay
Short: days to 1% carry
33.3d
shorts receive
SideDirectionAnnualised carryDays → 1%Days → 10%
LONGPAY-10.958%33.3d333.3d
SHORTRECEIVE10.958%33.3d333.3d

/api/asset/hl-HYPE/carry · same metrics, JSON

Volume profile

▸ real volume · Hyperliquid candlesstep $ 1 · 25 records
Price binBarsVolumeDistribution
$61.0000–$62.00003$775.07K
$60.0000–$61.0000★15$3.15M
$59.0000–$60.00007$1.19M

★ POC = Point of Control (highest-volume bin). Live JSON: /api/asset/hl-HYPE/volprofile?priceStep=1

Order flow

▸ BID-LEAN · +0.166 · Hyperliquid candles
Bars (buy / sell)
14 / 10
1 unclassified
Buy weight
$2.73M
real volume
Sell weight
$1.95M
real volume
Net delta
$780.11K
buyers net
Imbalance
16.63%
(buy − sell) / (buy + sell)
Toxicity (VPIN)
16.6%
two-sided / balanced
Impact (|Δp|/vol)
—
needs real volume

Sparkline = cumulative delta over the 25-record window./api/asset/hl-HYPE/flow?rollingWindow=30

Cascade clusters

▸ DOWN · 4 found · deepest 2.09% · Hyperliquid candles

Price-only proxy for forced-unwind clusters. No exchange liquidation feed is wired — read each row as a candidate event, not a confirmed liquidation.

#WindowDurationPeak → TroughDrawdownBars
#12026-06-13 17:00:00Z1.0h60.2600→59.00002.091%2
#22026-06-14 03:00:00Z3.0h60.8960→59.89101.650%4
#32026-06-14 14:00:00Z0ms61.0600→60.12801.526%1

/api/asset/hl-HYPE/cascades?windowMs=10800000&minDrawdownPct=0.005 · full list + parameters in JSON

Risk metrics

▸ sovereign store · 5,000 barsperiods/year ≈ 5.26M
Realized vol (annualised)
64.69%
σ per bar = 0.000282
Mean return (annualised)
-10.50%
μ per bar = -0.000000
Sharpe (rf=0)
-0.16
annualised; risk-free assumed zero
Max drawdown
2.41%
peak 61.57 → trough 60.09 over 2310 bars

/api/asset/hl-HYPE/risk · same metrics, JSON