HYPERLIQUID · PERPETUAL FUTURES

FET

FET-USD perpetual · 24/7 trading on Hyperliquid

▸ Advanced metrics · M2M bundle

hyperliquid · perp-fet · fresh · feed 1s old
24h sparkline · 60 pts▼ -4.13%
realized vol (ann.)
91.75%
max drawdown
4.12%
sharpe
-97.80
ulcer index
2.66%
RMS drawdown
pain index
2.45%
mean drawdown
mod. VaR 95%
0.07%
Cornish-Fisher
martin ratio
-3379.06
ret / ulcer
CDaR 95%
3.92%
cond. drawdown
gain/pain
0.87
Σgain / Σ|loss|
sterling
-2286.61
ret / CDaR
omega (θ=0)
0.87
upside/downside
roll spread
0.0 bps
implied (price-only)
bars used
2000
store
spread
—
24h Δ
-4.13%
flow lean
—
carry
longs_pay
10.95%
signalSHORTconfidence 39%suggested side: SELL
  • 24h change -4.13%
  • funding: longs pay — perp shorts get paid to wait
Same bundle via M2M API: /api/m2m/hl-FET/bundle · venue execution: hyperliquid →
LIVEPOLL0SRCFRESH1.4s⏱--:--:-- UTC8NEXT8.0sUP0s--:--HIST0/30
▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC FRESH·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC FRESH·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·
MARK · live
$0.199
24h Δ · live
-4.13%
24h vol · live
$3.7M
FET · live 24h price
n=24 · μ=0.2080 · σ=0.0038 · range [0.1994, 0.2148] · R²=0.044▼ FALLING -2.68%σ NORMAL 1.82%LAST 0.19940.21480.21090.20710.20320.1994μ = 0.2080max 0.2148min 0.1994dataMA(4)OLS R²=0.04μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxminlive endpoint
24 closes · last $0.20
Funding direction · live
Long fee 48.1%Short fee 51.9%SHORT FEE51.9%
Σ = 0.0%
Σ-sides total = 0.00% (100.00pp arb gap)
H(p) entropy = 0.999 / 1.00 bits (100%) · max uncertainty (~50/50)
Long fee
48.1%▬ +0.00pp
Short fee
51.9%▬ +0.00pp
1h funding 0.001250% · longs pay
Hourly contract volume · live
n=24 · Σ=17,899,266 · μ=745802.8 · σ=540032.9 · CV=0.72STEADY FLOWcumulative energy ↗ · 50% by h=120501,0861,002,1711,503,2572,004,342μ = 7458032,004,34250%h1h5h9h13h17h21#1 peak#2-3> μactivequietμ linecum energy
peak 2004342 contracts
Live numerics · pulse on poll
LIVE NUMERICS9 metrics·POLL 0
⏱snapshot age
1.4s
$mark $
$0.1993
$mid $
$0.1993
◉prev-day close
$0.2079
Δ24h Δ %
-4.132%
$24h vol $
$3.73M
◐open interest $
$6.07M
%funding (1h)
0.001250%
%funding (yr)
+10.95%/yr

§1 · 24h time-series

Close price · hourly
n=24 · μ=0.2080 · σ=0.0038 · range [0.1994, 0.2148] · R²=0.044▼ FALLING -2.68%σ NORMAL 1.82%LAST 0.19940.21480.21090.20710.20320.1994μ = 0.2080max 0.2148min 0.1994dataMA(4)OLS R²=0.04μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
mark $0.1993 · 24h -4.13% · range $[0.1994, 0.2148]
OHLC candles · hourly
n=24 · up 10 · down 14 (42% up) · range [0.1980, 0.2151] · σ=0.0038 · CV=0.02 · bodyµ=46%BEARISH -4.10%CLOSE 0.1994 vs OPEN 0.2079 (-4.10%)&#9660; CLOSE 0.19940.21510.21080.20660.20230.1980μ close = 0.2080O0.208 H0.209 L0.203 C0.205 (-1.46%)O0.208 H0.209 L0.203 C0.205 (-1.46%)O0.205 H0.212 L0.203 C0.209 (+2.01%)O0.205 H0.212 L0.203 C0.209 (+2.01%)O0.209 H0.211 L0.204 C0.206 (-1.33%)O0.209 H0.211 L0.204 C0.206 (-1.33%)O0.206 H0.208 L0.204 C0.207 (+0.28%)O0.206 H0.208 L0.204 C0.207 (+0.28%)O0.207 H0.207 L0.205 C0.207 (-0.00%)O0.207 H0.207 L0.205 C0.207 (-0.00%)O0.207 H0.212 L0.205 C0.209 (+1.23%)O0.207 H0.212 L0.205 C0.209 (+1.23%)O0.209 H0.210 L0.207 C0.207 (-0.68%)O0.209 H0.210 L0.207 C0.207 (-0.68%)O0.207 H0.209 L0.207 C0.208 (+0.28%)O0.207 H0.209 L0.207 C0.208 (+0.28%)O0.208 H0.210 L0.208 C0.209 (+0.53%)O0.208 H0.210 L0.208 C0.209 (+0.53%)O0.209 H0.212 L0.208 C0.209 (-0.21%)O0.209 H0.212 L0.208 C0.209 (-0.21%)O0.209 H0.210 L0.208 C0.210 (+0.67%)O0.209 H0.210 L0.208 C0.210 (+0.67%)O0.210 H0.215 L0.210 C0.215 (+2.25%)O0.210 H0.215 L0.210 C0.215 (+2.25%)-2.6%O0.215 H0.215 L0.208 C0.209 (-2.56%)O0.215 H0.215 L0.208 C0.209 (-2.56%)O0.209 H0.212 L0.207 C0.211 (+0.93%)O0.209 H0.212 L0.207 C0.211 (+0.93%)O0.212 H0.215 L0.209 C0.210 (-0.92%)O0.212 H0.215 L0.209 C0.210 (-0.92%)O0.210 H0.213 L0.209 C0.210 (-0.09%)O0.210 H0.213 L0.209 C0.210 (-0.09%)O0.210 H0.214 L0.209 C0.212 (+0.92%)O0.210 H0.214 L0.209 C0.212 (+0.92%)O0.212 H0.213 L0.210 C0.213 (+0.51%)O0.212 H0.213 L0.210 C0.213 (+0.51%)O0.212 H0.214 L0.210 C0.211 (-0.71%)O0.212 H0.214 L0.210 C0.211 (-0.71%)O0.211 H0.211 L0.210 C0.210 (-0.54%)O0.211 H0.211 L0.210 C0.210 (-0.54%)O0.210 H0.210 L0.204 C0.205 (-2.61%)O0.210 H0.210 L0.204 C0.205 (-2.61%)O0.205 H0.206 L0.201 C0.202 (-1.16%)O0.205 H0.206 L0.201 C0.202 (-1.16%)O0.202 H0.203 L0.198 C0.199 (-1.45%)O0.202 H0.203 L0.198 C0.199 (-1.45%)O0.200 H0.200 L0.199 C0.199 (-0.24%)O0.200 H0.200 L0.199 C0.199 (-0.24%)#1#5#9#13#17#21up bar (C≥O)down bar (C<O)MA(4) closeμ closedoji (~no body)biggest body
24 bars
Hourly volume (base units)
n=24 · Σ=17,899,266 · μ=745802.8 · σ=540032.9 · CV=0.72STEADY FLOWcumulative energy &nearr; · 50% by h=120501,0861,002,1711,503,2572,004,342μ = 745803878,909 · 43.9% peak878,909 · 43.9% peak1,088,921 · 54.3% peak1,088,921 · 54.3% peak1,045,068 · 52.1% peak1,045,068 · 52.1% peak1,847,879 · 92.2% peak1,847,879 · 92.2% peak253,531 · 12.6% peak253,531 · 12.6% peak607,340 · 30.3% peak607,340 · 30.3% peak354,848 · 17.7% peak354,848 · 17.7% peak195,207 · 9.7% peak195,207 · 9.7% peak192,304 · 9.6% peak192,304 · 9.6% peak1,511,302 · 75.4% peak1,511,302 · 75.4% peak789,667 · 39.4% peak789,667 · 39.4% peak1,076,217 · 53.7% peak1,076,217 · 53.7% peak2,004,3422,004,342 · 100.0% peak2,004,342 · 100.0% peak425,519 · 21.2% peak425,519 · 21.2% peak1,188,328 · 59.3% peak1,188,328 · 59.3% peak650,686 · 32.5% peak650,686 · 32.5% peak196,417 · 9.8% peak196,417 · 9.8% peak231,751 · 11.6% peak231,751 · 11.6% peak258,331 · 12.9% peak258,331 · 12.9% peak97,857 · 4.9% peak97,857 · 4.9% peak1,174,473 · 58.6% peak1,174,473 · 58.6% peak763,383 · 38.1% peak763,383 · 38.1% peak814,521 · 40.6% peak814,521 · 40.6% peak252,465 · 12.6% peak252,465 · 12.6% peak50%#1#5#9#13#17#21#1 peak#2-3> μactivequietμ linecum energy
Σ vol 17899266 · peak 2004342 · CV 0.72

§2 · Returns distribution (log-returns)

Histogram of rₜ = ln(pₜ/pₜ₋₁)
n=23 · 12 bins · μ=-0.0007 · σ=0.0115 · skew=-0.20 (symmetric) · kurt=-0.41 (mesokurtic)54310 2-234.43bpbin -234.43bp · n=2 · 40.0% peakbin -234.43bp · n=2 · 40.0% peak-194.84bp 1-155.26bpbin -155.26bp · n=1 · 20.0% peakbin -155.26bp · n=1 · 20.0% peak 2-115.68bpbin -115.68bp · n=2 · 40.0% peakbin -115.68bp · n=2 · 40.0% peak 3-76.10bpbin -76.10bp · n=3 · 60.0% peakbin -76.10bp · n=3 · 60.0% peak 1-36.52bpbin -36.52bp · n=1 · 20.0% peakbin -36.52bp · n=1 · 20.0% peak 53.06bpbin 3.06bp · n=5 · 100.0% peakbin 3.06bp · n=5 · 100.0% peak 242.64bpbin 42.64bp · n=2 · 40.0% peakbin 42.64bp · n=2 · 40.0% peak 482.23bpbin 82.23bp · n=4 · 80.0% peakbin 82.23bp · n=4 · 80.0% peak 1121.81bpbin 121.81bp · n=1 · 20.0% peakbin 121.81bp · n=1 · 20.0% peak161.39bp 2200.97bpbin 200.97bp · n=2 · 40.0% peakbin 200.97bp · n=2 · 40.0% peakμΔ < 0 · loss barsΔ ≈ 0 · flatΔ > 0 · gain barsN(μ,σ²) referenceμ line · ±σ band shaded
n=23 · positive 10 · negative 12
Q-Q plot · standardised rₜ vs N(0,1)
n=23 · skew=-0.20 · kurt=-0.24 · near 22 / mid 1 / far 0 · OLS slope=1.02 intercept=-0.00MATCHES NORMAL · WELL-BEHAVEDUPPER TAIL NORMALLOWER TAIL NORMAL-3σ-3σ-2σ-2σ-1σ-1σ+0σ+0σ+1σ+1σ+2σ+2σ+3σ+3σsample ↓marginal: sample bars + theoretical N(0,1) curve →theoretical Φ⁻¹(p) →↑ sample z-quantile|Δ| < 0.3σ · on the line|Δ| < 1σ · moderate|Δ| ≥ 1σ · outliery = x refOLS fit

§3 · Spot quote

Mark price
$0.1993
Mid price
$0.1993
24h change
-4.13%
Mark–mid spread
0.50 bps
Prev-day close
$0.2079

§4 · Sample moments (prices)

Descriptive statistics · 5-number summary · shape diagnostics
SAMPLE MOMENTS · N=24LEFT-SKEWED (G₁=-0.73)
μ MEAN0.2080$95% CI: [0.2065$, 0.2095$]
σ STD DEV0.0038$σ² = 0.144×10⁻⁴ · CV = 1.82%
med MEDIAN0.2090$Q₁ 0.2065$ · Q₃ 0.2100$
FIVE-NUMBER SUMMARY · BOX PLOTrange 0.0154$ · IQR 0.0035$ (1.349σ→0.0051$)
min 0.1994$Q₁ 0.2065$med 0.2090$Q₃ 0.2100$max 0.2148$μ
SKEWNESS · G₁-0.732left-skewed
−3−10+1+3
EXCESS KURTOSIS · G₂0.092mesokurtic · normal-like
−30+2+4+6
μ ↔ medianμ < med · left-tailed|μ−med| / σ = 0.26
σ × 1.349 ↔ IQRdiverges from normalratio = 1.46
range ↔ σwide tails (range > 4σ)range / σ = 4.07
μ = mean · σ = standard deviation · CV = coefficient of variation. Skew (G₁): >0 right-skewed. Kurt (G₂, excess): >0 leptokurtic. 95% CI = μ ± 1.96·SE.

§5 · Returns analytics (log-returns)

Risk-adjusted performance · log-returns
RETURNS · RISK-ADJUSTEDUNPROFITABLE · SR=-9.05
μᵣ MEAN / h-0.118106%drift is negative per h · |μ|/σ = 0.097
σᵣ STD / h1.221191%σ²ᵣ = 1.491×10⁻⁴ · CV = 10.34×
σ ANNUALISED114.30%/yrscaled by √8760 (hourly→yearly) · 1.221%/h base
RISK-ADJUSTED PERFORMANCEhigher = better edge per unit risk
SHARPE (annualised)-9.05negative edge
-2-10+1+2+3+4
SORTINO (annualised)-8.49downside drag
-2-10+1+2+3+4
CALMAR (return / max-DD)-100.00drawdown overwhelms returns
-20+2+4+6
RETURN-DISTRIBUTION SHAPE|skew| < 0.5 ≈ symmetric · |kurt| < 1 ≈ mesokurtic
SKEWNESS · G₁-0.22approximately symmetric
-3-10+1+3
EXCESS KURTOSIS · G₂0.01mesokurtic · normal-like tails
-30+2+4+6
SORTINO vs SHARPEdownside vol < total vol · favourableSoR / SR = 0.94
CALMAR · DD CONTROLdrawdown > returns · adverseCR = -100.00
EXPECTED EDGE-1034.61%/yr driftμ × 8760 = annualised expectation
rₜ = ln(pₜ/pₜ₋₁). σ × √8760 = annualised. Sharpe = μ/σ scaled; Sortino uses downside-only vol; Calmar = annual return / max drawdown.

§6 · Risk metrics

Tail risk + drawdown · downside diagnostics
TAIL & DRAWDOWN RISKHIGH · 95% VaR 2.42%
VaR₉₅ (h)2.424%5% prob of larger adverse h move
VaR₉₉ (h)2.540%1% prob · extreme-tail threshold
ES₉₅ (CVaR)2.537%expected loss given 5% tail event
MAX DRAWDOWN7.18%11h from peak to trough
TAIL-RISK LADDER (h losses)larger negative = worse · markers show severity
0 · no lossVaR₉₅−2.424%VaR₉₉−2.540%ES₉₅−2.537%worst tail ←→ zero loss
MAX DRAWDOWN PROFILEsignificant drawdown · 11h duration
PEAK21.48$
−7.18% drawdown over 11h
19.94$TROUGH
ES / VaR · TAIL THICKNESSthin tails · ES ≈ VaR|ES₉₅| / |VaR₉₅| = 1.05× (normal ≈ 1.25)
VaR₉₉ / VaR₉₅ · CONCENTRATIONuniform tailratio = 1.05× (normal ≈ 1.41)
DRAWDOWN · CAPITAL DURATIONsignificant drawdownrecovery needed: +7.74% (compounding)
VaR = quantile loss · ES (CVaR) = expected loss conditional on tail · DD = peak-to-trough decline. Under normality ES₉₅/VaR₉₅ ≈ 1.25; ratio > 1.5 ⇒ fat-tail regime.

§7 · Technicals

RSI(14)
37.9 · neutral
Bollinger %B
-0.046 · below lower band
Bollinger upper
$0.2164
Bollinger MA
$0.2082
Bollinger lower
$0.2001

§8 · Time-series structure

Regime & autocorrelation diagnostics
TIME-SERIES STRUCTUREREGIME: MARTINGALE · UNPREDICTABLE
ρ(1) AUTOCORR-0.159within white-noise band
ρ(2) AUTOCORR+0.222lag-2 not significant
H · HURST EXPONENT0.705strongly persistent
OLS TREND · t-STAT-1.006fails 5% test
HURST EXPONENT [0, 1]strongly persistent · H = 0.705
H = 0.705STRONGLY PERSISTENT
0
anti-persistent0.45
mean-reverting0.5
random walk0.55
persistent1
strongly trending
AUTOCORRELATION FUNCTION · ρ(k) for k=1..5WHITE NOISE · no significant lags
k=1-0.159k=2+0.222k=3-0.015k=4-0.044k=5-0.1390+1−1+0.42−0.42+ momentum (ρ > +0.42)− reversal (ρ < −0.42)noise (within band)±2/√n threshold
OLS TREND · t-STAT · [-5, +5]NOT SIGNIFICANT (|t|=1.01)
−5 reject−1.960 retain H₀+1.96+5 reject
REGIME CLASSIFICATIONMARTINGALE · UNPREDICTABLEfrom Hurst + ρ(1) joint diagnosis
PREDICTABILITY · score 0.57high · clear structure|ρ(1)| + 2·|H − 0.5| heuristic
TREND SIGNIFICANCENOT SIGNIFICANT (|t|=1.01)α=0.05 critical |t|=1.96 · α=0.01 |t|=2.58
ρ(k) = lag-k sample autocorrelation · H = R/S Hurst exponent · t = OLS-trend t-statistic. Significance bands at ±2/√n approximate the 95% white-noise envelope. α=0.05 critical |t|=1.96; α=0.01 |t|=2.58.

§9 · Microstructure

24h volume (USD)
$3.73M
Open interest (USD)
$6.07M
Vol / OI (turnover)
0.61x
1h funding
0.001250%
Funding (annualised)
+10.95%/yr

§10 · Position sizing

Continuous Kelly (μ/σ²)
-7.920× leverage · optimal log-utility leverage
Half-Kelly
-3.960× · industry-standard conservative
Quarter-Kelly
-1.980×

§11 · Hourly return heatmap

24-hour signed Δln-r grid · green = up · red = down
HOURLY RETURN HEATMAP · n=23 bars · best 2.21% · worst -2.54% · typical |Δ| 0.93%MILD BEARISH -2.72%BEST+2.21%03hWORST-2.54%12hTYPICAL |Δ|0.93%mean absoluteCUMULATIVE-2.72%Σ signed ΔSTREAK▬ 0flat-runASIA · 00-08 UTCμ +0.11% · Σ +0.88%EUROPE · 08-16 UTCμ -0.63% · Σ -5.04%US · 16-24 UTCμ +0.21% · Σ +1.45%CUMULATIVE Δ PATH · final -2.72%+4.74%-2.72%1.95% · 17h1.95% · 17h1.95%17h-1.35% · 18h-1.35% · 18h-1.35%18h0.30% · 19h0.30% · 19h0.30%19h-0.03% · 20h-0.03% · 20h-0.03%20h1.21% · 21h1.21% · 21h1.21%21h-0.81% · 22h-0.81% · 22h-0.81%22h0.20% · 23h0.20% · 23h0.20%23h0.58% · 00h0.58% · 00h0.58%00h-0.12% · 01h-0.12% · 01h-0.12%01h0.63% · 02h0.63% · 02h0.63%02h2.21% · 03h2.21% · 03h2.21%03h★ BEST-2.53% · 04h-2.53% · 04h-2.53%04h0.80% · 05h0.80% · 05h0.80%05h-0.67% · 06h-0.67% · 06h-0.67%06h-0.02% · 07h-0.02% · 07h-0.02%07h0.88% · 08h0.88% · 08h0.88%08h0.63% · 09h0.63% · 09h0.63%09h-0.88% · 10h-0.88% · 10h-0.88%10h-0.50% · 11h-0.50% · 11h-0.50%11h-2.54% · 12h-2.54% · 12h-2.54%12h▼ WORST-1.17% · 13h-1.17% · 13h-1.17%13h-1.45% · 14h-1.45% · 14h-1.45%14h0.00% · 15h0.00% · 15h·15hTIME PATTERNUS-led (+1.45%)RUNSup max 2 · down max 5BREADTH43% up · 52% down · 4% flat
10 up bars · 12 down · best 2.21% · worst -2.54% · typical |Δ| 0.933%

§12 · Equity curve & underwater drawdown

Cumulative compounded return + running peak-to-trough
EQUITY & DRAWDOWN ANALYSIS · n=24 barsLOSS WITH MODERATE DD (-2.84%)FINAL-2.84%MAX DD-7.28%RECOVERYONGOING · 12 barsMAX RUN-UP+4.78%UNDERWATER19/24 (79%)STREAK▬ 0EQUITY CURVE · end 0.9716 · peak 1.0478 · range [0.9716, 1.0478]1.04780.9716break-even = 1★ PEAK 1.0478UNDERWATER DRAWDOWN · max -7.28% · significant0%-7.28%▼ TROUGH -7.28%TOP DRAWDOWN PERIODS · 3 total#1 -7.28%bar 13-24 · 12 bars · ONGOING#2 -1.35%bar 3-5 · 3 bars · recovered#3 -0.81%bar 7-10 · 4 bars · recoveredDD SEVERITYsignificant (max -7.28%)RECOVERYongoing · 12 barsTIME UNDER WATER79% of session · 19/24 bars
final equity 0.9716 (-2.84%) · max DD -7.28% · time-under-water 19/24 bars

§13 · Rolling-window statistics (w = 5 bars)

Rolling annualised Sharpe ratio · green positive · red negative
n=19 · +11 / −8 (58% positive) · μ=-7.55 · σ=54.58MIXED EDGELAST -109.23 (-1.86σ vs μ)158.1579.070.00-79.07-158.15μ = -7.5530.7130.71-13.13-13.1322.1122.1128.4628.4625.8825.8814.8014.8072.6872.688.218.2110.5810.584.664.66-2.18-2.18-20.56-20.5646.3046.30-1.38-1.382.782.78-33.03-33.03-72.88-72.88-158.15-158.15-109.23-109.23v > 0 · positivev < 0 · negativeμ mean lineμ ± σ bandlatest bar (outlined)
latest -109.227 · range [-158.15, 72.68] · μ -7.546 · positive Sharpe = excess-return-per-risk earned by buying-and-holding through this window
Rolling annualised volatility (%)
n=19 · μ=102.4631 · σ=39.1223 · range [55.3261, 166.9678] · R²=0.001▼ FALLING -22.73%σ EXTREME 38.18%LAST 90.9401166.9678139.0574111.147083.236655.3261μ = 102.4631max 166.9678min 55.3261dataMA(3)OLS R²=0.00μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
latest 90.94% · range [55.33%, 166.97%] · μ 102.46% · σ̂ scaled to annualised (×√8760)
Rolling lag-1 autocorrelation ρ(1)
n=19 · +4 / −15 (21% positive) · μ=-0.289 · σ=0.264MEAN-REVERSIONLAST -0.314 (-0.10σ vs μ)0.6670.3330.000-0.333-0.667μ = -0.289-0.444-0.444-0.316-0.316-0.611-0.611-0.562-0.562-0.496-0.496-0.190-0.1900.0360.036-0.401-0.401-0.528-0.528-0.536-0.536-0.667-0.667-0.337-0.337-0.091-0.0910.0060.0060.1870.1870.1490.149-0.030-0.030-0.348-0.348-0.314-0.314v > 0 · positivev < 0 · negativeμ mean lineμ ± σ bandlatest bar (outlined)
latest -0.314 · |ρ| > 0.3 ⇒ regime with persistence (ρ > 0) or reversal (ρ < 0) · |ρ| ≤ 0.1 = consistent with random walk

§14 · Hypothesis tests (α = 0.05)

Formal inference at 5% significance
ALL TESTS PASS · data behaves as nominal0 reject·6 pass·α = 0.05
𝒩

Jarque-Bera

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Δln-r ~ Normal(μ, σ²)

STATISTIC
0.1822
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.9129
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainednormality not rejected
ρ

Ljung-Box(h=5)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: No serial autocorrelation up to lag 5

STATISTIC
2.6826
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.7512
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedconsistent with white noise
Ψ

Dickey-Fuller (τ_μ)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: p has a unit root (non-stationary)

STATISTIC
-0.9334
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.7765
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedrandom-walk behaviour (crit ≈ -2.86)
±

Wald-Wolfowitz runs

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Sign sequence of Δ is random

STATISTIC
0.9216
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.3567
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedsigns appear random (14 runs)
χ

KPSS (μ stationarity)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: p IS level-stationary

STATISTIC
0.2088
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.3414
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedstationary not rejected (crit 0.463)
χ

Variance ratio q=2

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Δln-r is a random walk · VR = 1

STATISTIC
-0.9128
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.3613
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedVR 0.810 ≈ 1 (RW behaviour)
Each row states an explicit null H₀, the test statistic, an approximated p-value, and the decision. REJECT means evidence against H₀. KPSS complements ADF (rejecting both ⇒ ambiguous; rejecting one ⇒ clean verdict).

§15 · Spectral analysis (DFT periodogram)

Power spectrum of Δln-r · ‖X̂(k)‖²/n
n=11 bins · noise floor μ=1.49e-4 · top T=2.56h (19.7%) · top-3 cover 51.9%1 SIGNIFICANT CYCLEcumulative energy ↗ (1 bin above 2× noise)3.2e-42.4e-41.6e-48.1e-50.0e+0μ noise floor2× noise (significance)period 23.0 · power 1.81e-4 · 11.0% energyperiod 23.0 · power 1.81e-4 · 11.0% energyperiod 11.5 · power 7.44e-5 · 4.5% energyperiod 11.5 · power 7.44e-5 · 4.5% energyperiod 7.7 · power 2.33e-4 · 14.2% energyperiod 7.7 · power 2.33e-4 · 14.2% energyperiod 5.8 · power 1.10e-4 · 6.7% energyperiod 5.8 · power 1.10e-4 · 6.7% energyperiod 4.6 · power 6.03e-5 · 3.7% energyperiod 4.6 · power 6.03e-5 · 3.7% energyperiod 3.8 · power 1.93e-5 · 1.2% energyperiod 3.8 · power 1.93e-5 · 1.2% energyperiod 3.3 · power 1.80e-4 · 11.0% energyperiod 3.3 · power 1.80e-4 · 11.0% energyperiod 2.9 · power 1.36e-4 · 8.3% energyperiod 2.9 · power 1.36e-4 · 8.3% energyperiod 2.6 · power 3.24e-4 · 19.7% energyperiod 2.6 · power 3.24e-4 · 19.7% energyperiod 2.3 · power 2.79e-5 · 1.7% energyperiod 2.3 · power 2.79e-5 · 1.7% energyperiod 2.1 · power 2.94e-4 · 17.9% energyperiod 2.1 · power 2.94e-4 · 17.9% energy50% by T=3.3h#1 dominantT=2.56h#2T=2.09h#3T=7.67hT=3hT=4hT=6hT=8hT=12hT=16h← shorter cycle (high freq · Nyquist=½) · period T (bars per cycle) · longer cycle (low freq · 1/n) →#1 dominant#2 peak#3 peak> 2× noisenoiseμ floor2μ sig.cum energy
dominant period ≈ 2.56h (freq 0.391) · concentrates 19.7% of total energy · Σ|X̂|²/n = 1.640e-3

▸ Depth section using sovereign-store price series (5000 bars · effective 5257847 bars/year) — annualisation reflects native polling cadence, not upstream timeframes.

§16 · NOSTRADAMUS continuous quant — perp leverage & bootstrap MC

Continuous-price extension of the prediction-market quant module. Kelly growth on observed returns (Merton μ/σ² parametric vs argmax empirical), Monte-Carlo equity fan bootstrapped from the historical return distribution at quarter-Kelly leverage, and an annualized return decomposition. Sweep parameters in the simulator.

§17 · Continuous Kelly

Continuous-Kelly growth · g(f) = E[ln(1 + f·r)]
NO LONG EDGE · μ -0.001% per barparametric μ/σ² short edge (μ<0) · μ -0.001% · σ 0.04%
μ per barmean
-0.001%
σ per barvol
0.04%
Empirical f★argmax g(f)
0.00×
from observed distribution
Parametric f★μ/σ²
-69.88×
Merton continuous-time
Half-Kelly½ f★
0.00×
~⅔ of full growth, half the variance
Quarter-Kelly¼ f★
0.00×
industry default — survives model error
-0.01%0.02%0.04%0.07%0.10%0.0×1.6×3.2×4.8×6.4×8.0×leverage fraction fexpected log-growth per bar
g(f) empiricalf★ argmaxparametric f★
Maximum expected log-growth from leveraging the historical return distribution. Empirical f★ argmaxes the sample expectation; parametric f★ = μ/σ² is Merton's continuous-time optimum.

§18 · MC equity fan

Bootstrapped equity fan at 0.10× leverage
Median CAGR/bar -0.000% · annualized Sharpe -64.90400 paths × 720 bars · leverage 0.10× · bootstrap from 4999 observed returns
Sharpe / barμ/σ
-0.028
annualized -64.90
μ per barafter L
-0.000%
σ per barafter L
0.00%
VaR 95%5%
0.01%
per-bar worst-case
CVaR 95%ES
0.01%
mean tail loss
Max DD (median)MDD
-0.1%
0.95×0.97×0.99×1.01×1.03×1.05×0120240360480600720startbar #equity multiple
median25/75 band5/95 band
Median path with 25/75 and 5/95 percentile bands across 400 simulated careers. Bars resample with replacement from the observed return distribution — preserves fat tails the parametric model misses.

§19 · Annualized breakdown

Annualized return components
APR -1000% · APY -100% · Sharpe -65.61σ ann 94% · Sortino -56.99 · n 4999 · ⚠ capped (n=4999 too small to support 8760-bar projection)
-7873%-6276%-4679%-3082%-1484%113%-1000.0%APR (simple)-100.0%APY (compound)93.9%Ann. vol σ-6560.7%Sharpe (ann)-5698.9%Sortino (ann)
Simple APR vs compounded APY · annualized volatility · risk-adjusted Sharpe and Sortino. All scaled by √(periods/yr).

§20 · GARCH(1,1) volatility band

GARCH(1,1) · conditional vol envelope (±2σ)
GARCH persistence α+β = 0.980· σ̂ₜ = 1.001% · long-run σ = 2.236%
0.1900.1970.2030.2100.2160.222t-4999t-4166t-3333t-2500t-1666t-833t-0

Persistence near 1 ⇒ vol clusters strongly (slow mean reversion). Long-run σ is the unconditional target the conditional vol orbits. The ±2σ band reflects time-varying scale, unlike a flat-vol band.

Time-varying volatility band fitted to the price series. Persistence α+β > 0.98 means vol shocks decay slowly — recent moves stay relevant.

§∞ · Provenance & attestation

Upstream
api.hyperliquid.xyz
Snapshot fetched
2026-06-14 16:00:07 UTC
Snapshot age
1.4s
History points
24 hourly closes
Page rendered
2026-06-14 16:00:09 UTC
Storage policy
no persistence — fetched on every request
SHA-256 attestation
f4125092eff96f0b9f4c6f0251a27dd2ece55db568d09018b0556ae1c4c5ee5c · deterministic hash of the source snapshot — proves this page was rendered from this exact data
Open data licence
CC0 / public domain · free to mirror, syndicate, analyse

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Also see: /arb opportunities · RSS feed

Market depth

▸ live order book · Hyperliquid perp
Depth within 1bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Depth within 5bp
$26.45K
bid $2.94K · ask $23.51K
Depth within 10bp
$63.04K
bid $10.55K · ask $52.49K
Depth within 50bp
$138.85K
bid $50.59K · ask $88.25K
Mid price
0.199265
(best bid + best ask) / 2
Spread
3.5bp
(bestAsk − bestBid) / mid
Imbalance (whole book)
-0.270
ask-heavy
Imbalance (top-5)
-0.771
ask-heavy top-of-book

Slippage scenarios

▸ live book walk · Hyperliquid perp

Simulating a market order at three notionals against the live book. Slippage = avg execution price vs. mid, in basis points. Worst fill = price of the deepest level touched. Live JSON: /api/asset/hl-FET/slippage?size=10000&side=buy

SideNotionalAvg fillSlippageWorst fillLevelsStatus
BUY$1.00K0.1993001.76bp0.1993001FILLED
BUY$10.00K0.1993001.76bp0.1993001FILLED
BUY$100.00K0.1994609.80bp0.19968020PARTIAL
SELL$1.00K0.1992003.27bp0.1991703FILLED
SELL$10.00K0.1991127.69bp0.1990707FILLED
SELL$100.00K0.19897914.33bp0.19886020PARTIAL

Funding carry

▸ LONGS PAY · shorts receive
Hourly funding
+1.250e-5
0.00125% / hr
Annualised APR
10.958%
hourly · 24 · 365.25
Long: days to 1% carry
33.3d
longs pay
Short: days to 1% carry
33.3d
shorts receive
SideDirectionAnnualised carryDays → 1%Days → 10%
LONGPAY-10.958%33.3d333.3d
SHORTRECEIVE10.958%33.3d333.3d

/api/asset/hl-FET/carry · same metrics, JSON

Volume profile

▸ real volume · Hyperliquid candlesstep $ 1 · 24 records
Price binBarsVolumeDistribution
$0.000000–$1.0000★24$17.90M

★ POC = Point of Control (highest-volume bin). Live JSON: /api/asset/hl-FET/volprofile?priceStep=1

Order flow

▸ ASK-LEAN · -0.218 · Hyperliquid candles
Bars (buy / sell)
10 / 13
1 unclassified
Buy weight
$6.65M
real volume
Sell weight
$10.37M
real volume
Net delta
$3.72M
sellers net
Imbalance
-21.84%
(buy − sell) / (buy + sell)
Toxicity (VPIN)
21.8%
two-sided / balanced
Impact (|Δp|/vol)
—
needs real volume

Sparkline = cumulative delta over the 24-record window./api/asset/hl-FET/flow?rollingWindow=30

Cascade clusters

▸ DOWN · 4 found · deepest 6.34% · Hyperliquid candles

Price-only proxy for forced-unwind clusters. No exchange liquidation feed is wired — read each row as a candidate event, not a confirmed liquidation.

#WindowDurationPeak → TroughDrawdownBars
#12026-06-14 10:00:00Z5.0h0.212860→0.1993706.337%6
#22026-06-14 04:00:00Z3.0h0.214800→0.2094302.500%4
#32026-06-13 18:00:00Z2.0h0.208890→0.2060801.345%3

/api/asset/hl-FET/cascades?windowMs=10800000&minDrawdownPct=0.005 · full list + parameters in JSON

Risk metrics

▸ sovereign store · 5,000 barsperiods/year ≈ 5.26M
Realized vol (annualised)
93.88%
σ per bar = 0.000409
Mean return (annualised)
-6159.17%
μ per bar = -0.000012
Sharpe (rf=0)
-65.61
annualised; risk-free assumed zero
Max drawdown
7.33%
peak 0.21 → trough 0.20 over 2770 bars

/api/asset/hl-FET/risk · same metrics, JSON