HYPERLIQUID · PERPETUAL FUTURES

ENA

ENA-USD perpetual · 24/7 trading on Hyperliquid

▸ Advanced metrics · M2M bundle

hyperliquid · perp-ena · fresh · feed 3s old
24h sparkline · 60 pts▼ -4.71%
realized vol (ann.)
67.69%
max drawdown
2.24%
sharpe
-53.41
ulcer index
1.42%
RMS drawdown
pain index
1.18%
mean drawdown
mod. VaR 95%
0.05%
Cornish-Fisher
martin ratio
-2544.85
ret / ulcer
CDaR 95%
2.11%
cond. drawdown
gain/pain
0.93
Σgain / Σ|loss|
sterling
-1717.11
ret / CDaR
omega (θ=0)
0.93
upside/downside
roll spread
0.0 bps
implied (price-only)
bars used
2000
store
spread
—
24h Δ
-4.71%
flow lean
—
carry
shorts_pay
-6.41%
signalNEUTRALconfidence 32%
  • 24h change -4.71%
  • funding: shorts pay — perp longs get paid to wait
  • mark cheap vs HL oracle by 8.2bps — long bias
Same bundle via M2M API: /api/m2m/hl-ENA/bundle · venue execution: hyperliquid →
LIVEPOLL0SRCFRESH2.9s⏱--:--:-- UTC8NEXT8.0sUP0s--:--HIST0/30
▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC FRESH·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC FRESH·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·
MARK · live
$0.081
24h Δ · live
-4.71%
24h vol · live
$6.8M
ENA · live 24h price
n=25 · μ=0.0839 · σ=0.0014 · range [0.0813, 0.0866] · R²=0.872▼ FALLING -6.12%σ NORMAL 1.63%LAST 0.08130.08660.08530.08400.08260.0813μ = 0.0839max 0.0866min 0.0813dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.87μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxminlive endpoint
25 closes · last $0.08
Funding direction · live
Long fee 46.8%Short fee 53.2%SHORT FEE53.2%
Σ = 0.0%
Σ-sides total = 0.00% (100.00pp arb gap)
H(p) entropy = 0.997 / 1.00 bits (100%) · max uncertainty (~50/50)
Long fee
46.8%▬ +0.00pp
Short fee
53.2%▬ +0.00pp
1h funding -0.000732% · shorts pay
Hourly contract volume · live
n=25 · Σ=84,094,786 · μ=3363791.4 · σ=6424260.5 · CV=1.91BURSTY · concentratedcumulative energy ↗ · 50% by h=1908,357,23416,714,46725,071,70133,428,934μ = 336379133,428,93450%h1h5h9h13h17h21h25#1 peak#2-3> μactivequietμ linecum energy
peak 33428934 contracts
Live numerics · pulse on poll
LIVE NUMERICS9 metrics·POLL 0
⏱snapshot age
2.9s
$mark $
$0.0812
$mid $
$0.0812
◉prev-day close
$0.0852
Δ24h Δ %
-4.708%
$24h vol $
$6.76M
◐open interest $
$19.37M
%funding (1h)
-0.000732%
%funding (yr)
-6.41%/yr

§1 · 24h time-series

Close price · hourly
n=25 · μ=0.0839 · σ=0.0014 · range [0.0813, 0.0866] · R²=0.872▼ FALLING -6.12%σ NORMAL 1.63%LAST 0.08130.08660.08530.08400.08260.0813μ = 0.0839max 0.0866min 0.0813dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.87μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
mark $0.0812 · 24h -4.71% · range $[0.0813, 0.0866]
OHLC candles · hourly
n=25 · up 10 · down 15 (40% up) · range [0.0811, 0.0869] · σ=0.0014 · CV=0.02 · bodyµ=41%BEARISH -4.89%CLOSE 0.0813 vs OPEN 0.0855 (-4.89%)&#9660; CLOSE 0.08130.08690.08540.08400.08260.0811μ close = 0.0839O0.085 H0.087 L0.085 C0.087 (+1.31%)O0.085 H0.087 L0.085 C0.087 (+1.31%)O0.087 H0.087 L0.085 C0.085 (-1.56%)O0.087 H0.087 L0.085 C0.085 (-1.56%)O0.085 H0.086 L0.084 C0.086 (+0.88%)O0.085 H0.086 L0.084 C0.086 (+0.88%)O0.086 H0.086 L0.085 C0.085 (-0.93%)O0.086 H0.086 L0.085 C0.085 (-0.93%)O0.085 H0.086 L0.085 C0.085 (-0.35%)O0.085 H0.086 L0.085 C0.085 (-0.35%)O0.085 H0.085 L0.084 C0.085 (-0.12%)O0.085 H0.085 L0.084 C0.085 (-0.12%)O0.085 H0.085 L0.084 C0.085 (+0.13%)O0.085 H0.085 L0.084 C0.085 (+0.13%)O0.085 H0.086 L0.084 C0.085 (+0.83%)O0.085 H0.086 L0.084 C0.085 (+0.83%)-1.8%O0.085 H0.086 L0.084 C0.084 (-1.77%)O0.085 H0.086 L0.084 C0.084 (-1.77%)O0.084 H0.084 L0.083 C0.084 (-0.04%)O0.084 H0.084 L0.083 C0.084 (-0.04%)O0.084 H0.085 L0.084 C0.084 (+0.49%)O0.084 H0.085 L0.084 C0.084 (+0.49%)O0.084 H0.086 L0.084 C0.084 (-0.07%)O0.084 H0.086 L0.084 C0.084 (-0.07%)O0.084 H0.085 L0.084 C0.085 (+0.51%)O0.084 H0.085 L0.084 C0.085 (+0.51%)O0.084 H0.084 L0.084 C0.084 (-0.01%)O0.084 H0.084 L0.084 C0.084 (-0.01%)O0.084 H0.084 L0.083 C0.084 (-0.71%)O0.084 H0.084 L0.083 C0.084 (-0.71%)O0.084 H0.084 L0.083 C0.084 (+0.22%)O0.084 H0.084 L0.083 C0.084 (+0.22%)O0.084 H0.085 L0.083 C0.083 (-0.98%)O0.084 H0.085 L0.083 C0.083 (-0.98%)O0.083 H0.083 L0.082 C0.083 (-0.13%)O0.083 H0.083 L0.082 C0.083 (-0.13%)O0.083 H0.084 L0.083 C0.083 (-0.01%)O0.083 H0.084 L0.083 C0.083 (-0.01%)O0.083 H0.084 L0.082 C0.084 (+0.61%)O0.083 H0.084 L0.082 C0.084 (+0.61%)O0.084 H0.084 L0.082 C0.082 (-1.59%)O0.084 H0.084 L0.082 C0.082 (-1.59%)O0.082 H0.083 L0.082 C0.083 (+0.44%)O0.082 H0.083 L0.082 C0.083 (+0.44%)O0.083 H0.083 L0.081 C0.081 (-1.66%)O0.083 H0.083 L0.081 C0.081 (-1.66%)O0.081 H0.082 L0.081 C0.082 (+0.55%)O0.081 H0.082 L0.081 C0.082 (+0.55%)O0.082 H0.082 L0.081 C0.081 (-0.60%)O0.082 H0.082 L0.081 C0.081 (-0.60%)#1#5#9#13#17#21#25up bar (C≥O)down bar (C<O)MA(5) closeμ closedoji (~no body)biggest body
25 bars
Hourly volume (base units)
n=25 · Σ=84,094,786 · μ=3363791.4 · σ=6424260.5 · CV=1.91BURSTY · concentratedcumulative energy &nearr; · 50% by h=1908,357,23416,714,46725,071,70133,428,934μ = 33637914,904,941 · 14.7% peak4,904,941 · 14.7% peak7,023,868 · 21.0% peak7,023,868 · 21.0% peak2,590,992 · 7.8% peak2,590,992 · 7.8% peak2,951,476 · 8.8% peak2,951,476 · 8.8% peak639,272 · 1.9% peak639,272 · 1.9% peak1,459,042 · 4.4% peak1,459,042 · 4.4% peak1,376,598 · 4.1% peak1,376,598 · 4.1% peak2,600,157 · 7.8% peak2,600,157 · 7.8% peak1,599,097 · 4.8% peak1,599,097 · 4.8% peak1,032,073 · 3.1% peak1,032,073 · 3.1% peak1,244,802 · 3.7% peak1,244,802 · 3.7% peak1,083,674 · 3.2% peak1,083,674 · 3.2% peak3,031,884 · 9.1% peak3,031,884 · 9.1% peak2,487,321 · 7.4% peak2,487,321 · 7.4% peak433,674 · 1.3% peak433,674 · 1.3% peak2,155,119 · 6.4% peak2,155,119 · 6.4% peak2,546,759 · 7.6% peak2,546,759 · 7.6% peak2,727,507 · 8.2% peak2,727,507 · 8.2% peak1,345,934 · 4.0% peak1,345,934 · 4.0% peak1,595,782 · 4.8% peak1,595,782 · 4.8% peak1,229,937 · 3.7% peak1,229,937 · 3.7% peak988,475 · 3.0% peak988,475 · 3.0% peak33,428,93433,428,934 · 100.0% peak33,428,934 · 100.0% peak2,810,143 · 8.4% peak2,810,143 · 8.4% peak807,325 · 2.4% peak807,325 · 2.4% peak50%#1#5#9#13#17#21#25#1 peak#2-3> μactivequietμ linecum energy
Σ vol 84094786 · peak 33428934 · CV 1.91

§2 · Returns distribution (log-returns)

Histogram of rₜ = ln(pₜ/pₜ₋₁)
n=24 · 12 bins · μ=-0.0026 · σ=0.0079 · skew=-0.46 (symmetric) · kurt=-0.93 (mesokurtic)43210 3-164.42bpbin -164.42bp · n=3 · 75.0% peakbin -164.42bp · n=3 · 75.0% peak 1-141.79bpbin -141.79bp · n=1 · 25.0% peakbin -141.79bp · n=1 · 25.0% peak 1-119.16bpbin -119.16bp · n=1 · 25.0% peakbin -119.16bp · n=1 · 25.0% peak 1-96.52bpbin -96.52bp · n=1 · 25.0% peakbin -96.52bp · n=1 · 25.0% peak 1-73.89bpbin -73.89bp · n=1 · 25.0% peakbin -73.89bp · n=1 · 25.0% peak 1-51.26bpbin -51.26bp · n=1 · 25.0% peakbin -51.26bp · n=1 · 25.0% peak 3-28.63bpbin -28.63bp · n=3 · 75.0% peakbin -28.63bp · n=3 · 75.0% peak 4-6.00bpbin -6.00bp · n=4 · 100.0% peakbin -6.00bp · n=4 · 100.0% peak 216.64bpbin 16.64bp · n=2 · 50.0% peakbin 16.64bp · n=2 · 50.0% peak 239.27bpbin 39.27bp · n=2 · 50.0% peakbin 39.27bp · n=2 · 50.0% peak 361.90bpbin 61.90bp · n=3 · 75.0% peakbin 61.90bp · n=3 · 75.0% peak 284.53bpbin 84.53bp · n=2 · 50.0% peakbin 84.53bp · n=2 · 50.0% peakμΔ < 0 · loss barsΔ ≈ 0 · flatΔ > 0 · gain barsN(μ,σ²) referenceμ line · ±σ band shaded
n=24 · positive 11 · negative 13
Q-Q plot · standardised rₜ vs N(0,1)
n=24 · skew=-0.46 · kurt=-0.93 · near 20 / mid 4 / far 0 · OLS slope=1.00 intercept=-0.00MATCHES NORMAL · WELL-BEHAVEDUPPER TAIL NORMALMILDLY HEAVY LOWER-3σ-3σ-2σ-2σ-1σ-1σ+0σ+0σ+1σ+1σ+2σ+2σ+3σ+3σsample ↓marginal: sample bars + theoretical N(0,1) curve →theoretical Φ⁻¹(p) →↑ sample z-quantile|Δ| < 0.3σ · on the line|Δ| < 1σ · moderate|Δ| ≥ 1σ · outliery = x refOLS fit

§3 · Spot quote

Mark price
$0.0812
Mid price
$0.0812
24h change
-4.71%
Mark–mid spread
0.00 bps
Prev-day close
$0.0852

§4 · Sample moments (prices)

Descriptive statistics · 5-number summary · shape diagnostics
SAMPLE MOMENTS · N=25APPROXIMATELY NORMAL · WELL-BEHAVED
μ MEAN0.0839$95% CI: [0.0834$, 0.0844$]
σ STD DEV0.0014$σ² = 0.019×10⁻⁴ · CV = 1.63%
med MEDIAN0.0839$Q₁ 0.0830$ · Q₃ 0.0847$
FIVE-NUMBER SUMMARY · BOX PLOTrange 0.0053$ · IQR 0.0017$ (1.349σ→0.0018$)
min 0.0813$Q₁ 0.0830$med 0.0839$Q₃ 0.0847$max 0.0866$μ
SKEWNESS · G₁-0.164approximately symmetric
−3−10+1+3
EXCESS KURTOSIS · G₂-0.668mesokurtic · normal-like
−30+2+4+6
μ ↔ median≈ equal · symmetric|μ−med| / σ = 0.03
σ × 1.349 ↔ IQRconsistent with normalratio = 1.07
range ↔ σconcentrated (range < 4σ)range / σ = 3.87
μ = mean · σ = standard deviation · CV = coefficient of variation. Skew (G₁): >0 right-skewed. Kurt (G₂, excess): >0 leptokurtic. 95% CI = μ ± 1.96·SE.

§5 · Returns analytics (log-returns)

Risk-adjusted performance · log-returns
RETURNS · RISK-ADJUSTEDUNPROFITABLE · SR=-30.33
μᵣ MEAN / h-0.263187%drift is negative per h · |μ|/σ = 0.324
σᵣ STD / h0.812161%σ²ᵣ = 0.660×10⁻⁴ · CV = 3.09×
σ ANNUALISED76.01%/yrscaled by √8760 (hourly→yearly) · 0.812%/h base
RISK-ADJUSTED PERFORMANCEhigher = better edge per unit risk
SHARPE (annualised)-30.33negative edge
-2-10+1+2+3+4
SORTINO (annualised)-23.79downside drag
-2-10+1+2+3+4
CALMAR (return / max-DD)-100.00drawdown overwhelms returns
-20+2+4+6
RETURN-DISTRIBUTION SHAPE|skew| < 0.5 ≈ symmetric · |kurt| < 1 ≈ mesokurtic
SKEWNESS · G₁-0.49approximately symmetric
-3-10+1+3
EXCESS KURTOSIS · G₂-0.86mesokurtic · normal-like tails
-30+2+4+6
SORTINO vs SHARPEdownside vol < total vol · favourableSoR / SR = 0.78
CALMAR · DD CONTROLdrawdown > returns · adverseCR = -100.00
EXPECTED EDGE-2305.52%/yr driftμ × 8760 = annualised expectation
rₜ = ln(pₜ/pₜ₋₁). σ × √8760 = annualised. Sharpe = μ/σ scaled; Sortino uses downside-only vol; Calmar = annual return / max drawdown.

§6 · Risk metrics

Tail risk + drawdown · downside diagnostics
TAIL & DRAWDOWN RISKHIGH · 95% VaR 1.59%
VaR₉₅ (h)1.590%5% prob of larger adverse h move
VaR₉₉ (h)1.721%1% prob · extreme-tail threshold
ES₉₅ (CVaR)1.678%expected loss given 5% tail event
MAX DRAWDOWN6.12%24h from peak to trough
TAIL-RISK LADDER (h losses)larger negative = worse · markers show severity
0 · no lossVaR₉₅−1.590%VaR₉₉−1.721%ES₉₅−1.678%worst tail ←→ zero loss
MAX DRAWDOWN PROFILEsignificant drawdown · 24h duration
PEAK8.66$
−6.12% drawdown over 24h
8.13$TROUGH
ES / VaR · TAIL THICKNESSthin tails · ES ≈ VaR|ES₉₅| / |VaR₉₅| = 1.06× (normal ≈ 1.25)
VaR₉₉ / VaR₉₅ · CONCENTRATIONuniform tailratio = 1.08× (normal ≈ 1.41)
DRAWDOWN · CAPITAL DURATIONsignificant drawdownrecovery needed: +6.52% (compounding)
VaR = quantile loss · ES (CVaR) = expected loss conditional on tail · DD = peak-to-trough decline. Under normality ES₉₅/VaR₉₅ ≈ 1.25; ratio > 1.5 ⇒ fat-tail regime.

§7 · Technicals

RSI(14)
29.2 · oversold
Bollinger %B
0.032 · within band
Bollinger upper
$0.0858
Bollinger MA
$0.0835
Bollinger lower
$0.0812

§8 · Time-series structure

Regime & autocorrelation diagnostics
TIME-SERIES STRUCTUREREGIME: MEAN-REVERTING · ρ(1) -0.54 + ADF rejected
ρ(1) AUTOCORR-0.545negative · reversal
ρ(2) AUTOCORR+0.207lag-2 not significant
H · HURST EXPONENT0.954strongly persistent
OLS TREND · t-STAT-12.527significant @ α=0.05
HURST EXPONENT [0, 1]strongly persistent · H = 0.954
H = 0.954STRONGLY PERSISTENT
0
anti-persistent0.45
mean-reverting0.5
random walk0.55
persistent1
strongly trending
AUTOCORRELATION FUNCTION · ρ(k) for k=1..51 SIGNIFICANT LAG · k=1
k=1 ★-0.545k=2+0.207k=3-0.179k=4+0.043k=5+0.0620+1−1+0.41−0.41+ momentum (ρ > +0.41)− reversal (ρ < −0.41)noise (within band)±2/√n threshold
OLS TREND · t-STAT · [-5, +5]SIGNIFICANT @ 1% (|t|=12.53)
−5 reject−1.960 retain H₀+1.96+5 reject
REGIME CLASSIFICATIONMEAN-REVERTING · ρ(1) -0.54 + ADF rejectedfrom Hurst + ρ(1) joint diagnosis
PREDICTABILITY · score 1.00very high · strong structure|ρ(1)| + 2·|H − 0.5| heuristic
TREND SIGNIFICANCESIGNIFICANT @ 1% (|t|=12.53)α=0.05 critical |t|=1.96 · α=0.01 |t|=2.58
ρ(k) = lag-k sample autocorrelation · H = R/S Hurst exponent · t = OLS-trend t-statistic. Significance bands at ±2/√n approximate the 95% white-noise envelope. α=0.05 critical |t|=1.96; α=0.01 |t|=2.58.

§9 · Microstructure

24h volume (USD)
$6.76M
Open interest (USD)
$19.37M
Vol / OI (turnover)
0.35x
1h funding
-0.000732%
Funding (annualised)
-6.41%/yr

§10 · Position sizing

Continuous Kelly (μ/σ²)
-10.000× leverage · optimal log-utility leverage
Half-Kelly
-5.000× · industry-standard conservative
Quarter-Kelly
-2.500×

§11 · Hourly return heatmap

24-hour signed Δln-r grid · green = up · red = down
HOURLY RETURN HEATMAP · n=24 bars · best 0.96% · worst -1.76% · typical |Δ| 0.65%MILD BEARISH -6.32%BEST+0.96%16hWORST-1.76%22hTYPICAL |Δ|0.65%mean absoluteCUMULATIVE-6.32%Σ signed ΔSTREAK↘ 1down-runASIA · 00-08 UTCμ -0.14% · Σ -1.09%EUROPE · 08-16 UTCμ -0.45% · Σ -3.64%US · 16-24 UTCμ -0.20% · Σ -1.59%CUMULATIVE Δ PATH · final -6.32%+0.00%-6.32%-1.60% · 15h-1.60% · 15h-1.60%15h0.96% · 16h0.96% · 16h0.96%16h★ BEST-1.14% · 17h-1.14% · 17h-1.14%17h-0.33% · 18h-0.33% · 18h-0.33%18h-0.27% · 19h-0.27% · 19h-0.27%19h0.17% · 20h0.17% · 20h0.17%20h0.81% · 21h0.81% · 21h0.81%21h-1.76% · 22h-1.76% · 22h-1.76%22h▼ WORST-0.03% · 23h-0.03% · 23h-0.03%23h0.52% · 00h0.52% · 00h0.52%00h-0.07% · 01h-0.07% · 01h-0.07%01h0.35% · 02h0.35% · 02h0.35%02h-0.24% · 03h-0.24% · 03h-0.24%03h-0.83% · 04h-0.83% · 04h-0.83%04h0.15% · 05h0.15% · 05h0.15%05h-1.02% · 06h-1.02% · 06h-1.02%06h0.03% · 07h0.03% · 07h0.03%07h0.01% · 08h0.01% · 08h0.01%08h0.65% · 09h0.65% · 09h0.65%09h-1.52% · 10h-1.52% · 10h-1.52%10h0.44% · 11h0.44% · 11h0.44%11h-1.55% · 12h-1.55% · 12h-1.55%12h0.51% · 13h0.51% · 13h0.51%13h-0.58% · 14h-0.58% · 14h-0.58%14hTIME PATTERNAsia-led (+-1.09%)RUNSup max 3 · down max 3BREADTH46% up · 54% down
11 up bars · 13 down · best 0.96% · worst -1.76% · typical |Δ| 0.647%

§12 · Equity curve & underwater drawdown

Cumulative compounded return + running peak-to-trough
EQUITY & DRAWDOWN ANALYSIS · n=25 barsSEVERE DRAWDOWN -6.20%FINAL-6.20%MAX DD-6.20%RECOVERYONGOING · 24 barsMAX RUN-UP+0.00%UNDERWATER24/25 (96%)STREAK↘ 1EQUITY CURVE · end 0.9380 · peak 1.0000 · range [0.9380, 1.0000]1.00000.9380break-even = 1★ PEAK 1.0000UNDERWATER DRAWDOWN · max -6.20% · significant0%-6.20%▼ TROUGH -6.20%TOP DRAWDOWN PERIODS · 1 total#1 -6.20%bar 2-25 · 24 bars · ONGOINGDD SEVERITYsignificant (max -6.20%)RECOVERYongoing · 24 barsTIME UNDER WATER96% of session · 24/25 bars
final equity 0.9380 (-6.20%) · max DD -6.20% · time-under-water 24/25 bars

§13 · Rolling-window statistics (w = 6 bars)

Rolling annualised Sharpe ratio · green positive · red negative
n=19 · +1 / −18 (5% positive) · μ=-25.02 · σ=17.10UNPROFITABLE STRATEGYLAST -31.36 (-0.37σ vs μ)59.7229.860.00-29.86-59.72μ = -25.02-37.73-37.734.034.03-42.74-42.74-25.79-25.79-9.67-9.67-6.15-6.15-2.96-2.96-23.50-23.50-9.68-9.68-3.43-3.43-46.98-46.98-43.39-43.39-59.72-59.72-24.70-24.70-32.41-32.41-25.75-25.75-31.16-31.16-22.35-22.35-31.36-31.36v > 0 · positivev < 0 · negativeμ mean lineμ ± σ bandlatest bar (outlined)
latest -31.360 · range [-59.72, 4.03] · μ -25.024 · positive Sharpe = excess-return-per-risk earned by buying-and-holding through this window
Rolling annualised volatility (%)
n=19 · μ=73.1283 · σ=17.6189 · range [44.4522, 95.5252] · R²=0.000▲ RISING +11.68%σ EXTREME 24.09%LAST 95.431095.525282.756969.988757.220444.4522μ = 73.1283max 95.5252min 44.4522dataMA(3)OLS R²=0.00μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
latest 95.43% · range [44.45%, 95.53%] · μ 73.13% · σ̂ scaled to annualised (×√8760)
Rolling lag-1 autocorrelation ρ(1)
n=19 · +2 / −17 (11% positive) · μ=-0.372 · σ=0.238MEAN-REVERSIONLAST -0.817 (-1.86σ vs μ)0.8170.4080.000-0.408-0.817μ = -0.372-0.629-0.629-0.154-0.154-0.210-0.210-0.409-0.409-0.338-0.338-0.325-0.325-0.358-0.3580.0050.0050.0560.056-0.074-0.074-0.285-0.285-0.501-0.501-0.613-0.613-0.239-0.239-0.405-0.405-0.531-0.531-0.547-0.547-0.700-0.700-0.817-0.817v > 0 · positivev < 0 · negativeμ mean lineμ ± σ bandlatest bar (outlined)
latest -0.817 · |ρ| > 0.3 ⇒ regime with persistence (ρ > 0) or reversal (ρ < 0) · |ρ| ≤ 0.1 = consistent with random walk

§14 · Hypothesis tests (α = 0.05)

Formal inference at 5% significance
2 of 6 REJECT · mixed evidence2 reject·4 pass·α = 0.05
𝒩

Jarque-Bera

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Δln-r ~ Normal(μ, σ²)

STATISTIC
1.7112
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.4250
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainednormality not rejected
ρ

Ljung-Box(h=5)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: No serial autocorrelation up to lag 5

STATISTIC
10.4037
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.0639
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedconsistent with white noise
Ψ

Dickey-Fuller (τ_μ)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: p has a unit root (non-stationary)

STATISTIC
-1.3962
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.5828
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedrandom-walk behaviour (crit ≈ -2.86)
±

Wald-Wolfowitz runs

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Sign sequence of Δ is random

STATISTIC
1.7169
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.0860
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedsigns appear random (17 runs)
χ

KPSS (μ stationarity)

REJECT H₀**

H₀: p IS level-stationary

STATISTIC
0.8917
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.0043
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p < α · rejection zonenon-stationary (crit 0.463)
χ

Variance ratio q=3

REJECT H₀*

H₀: Δln-r is a random walk · VR = 1

STATISTIC
-1.9774
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.0480
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p < α · rejection zoneVR 0.398 → mean-reverting
Each row states an explicit null H₀, the test statistic, an approximated p-value, and the decision. REJECT means evidence against H₀. KPSS complements ADF (rejecting both ⇒ ambiguous; rejecting one ⇒ clean verdict).

§15 · Spectral analysis (DFT periodogram)

Power spectrum of Δln-r · ‖X̂(k)‖²/n
n=12 bins · noise floor μ=6.72e-5 · top T=2.40h (26.0%) · top-3 cover 60.7%2 SIGNIFICANT CYCLEScumulative energy ↗ (2 bins above 2× noise)2.1e-41.6e-41.1e-45.3e-50.0e+0μ noise floor2× noise (significance)period 24.0 · power 2.11e-5 · 2.6% energyperiod 24.0 · power 2.11e-5 · 2.6% energyperiod 12.0 · power 4.80e-6 · 0.6% energyperiod 12.0 · power 4.80e-6 · 0.6% energyperiod 8.0 · power 1.51e-5 · 1.9% energyperiod 8.0 · power 1.51e-5 · 1.9% energyperiod 6.0 · power 4.88e-5 · 6.0% energyperiod 6.0 · power 4.88e-5 · 6.0% energyperiod 4.8 · power 4.98e-6 · 0.6% energyperiod 4.8 · power 4.98e-6 · 0.6% energyperiod 4.0 · power 9.90e-5 · 12.3% energyperiod 4.0 · power 9.90e-5 · 12.3% energyperiod 3.4 · power 2.32e-5 · 2.9% energyperiod 3.4 · power 2.32e-5 · 2.9% energyperiod 3.0 · power 2.08e-5 · 2.6% energyperiod 3.0 · power 2.08e-5 · 2.6% energyperiod 2.7 · power 1.81e-4 · 22.4% energyperiod 2.7 · power 1.81e-4 · 22.4% energyperiod 2.4 · power 2.10e-4 · 26.0% energyperiod 2.4 · power 2.10e-4 · 26.0% energyperiod 2.2 · power 8.15e-5 · 10.1% energyperiod 2.2 · power 8.15e-5 · 10.1% energyperiod 2.0 · power 9.68e-5 · 12.0% energyperiod 2.0 · power 9.68e-5 · 12.0% energy50% by T=2.7h#1 dominantT=2.40h#2T=2.67h#3T=4.00hT=2hT=3hT=4hT=6hT=8hT=12hT=16hT=24h← shorter cycle (high freq · Nyquist=½) · period T (bars per cycle) · longer cycle (low freq · 1/n) →#1 dominant#2 peak#3 peak> 2× noisenoiseμ floor2μ sig.cum energy
dominant period ≈ 2.40h (freq 0.417) · concentrates 26.0% of total energy · Σ|X̂|²/n = 8.070e-4

▸ Depth section using sovereign-store price series (5000 bars · effective 5257847 bars/year) — annualisation reflects native polling cadence, not upstream timeframes.

§16 · NOSTRADAMUS continuous quant — perp leverage & bootstrap MC

Continuous-price extension of the prediction-market quant module. Kelly growth on observed returns (Merton μ/σ² parametric vs argmax empirical), Monte-Carlo equity fan bootstrapped from the historical return distribution at quarter-Kelly leverage, and an annualized return decomposition. Sweep parameters in the simulator.

§17 · Continuous Kelly

Continuous-Kelly growth · g(f) = E[ln(1 + f·r)]
NO LONG EDGE · μ -0.001% per barparametric μ/σ² short edge (μ<0) · μ -0.001% · σ 0.03%
μ per barmean
-0.001%
σ per barvol
0.03%
Empirical f★argmax g(f)
0.00×
from observed distribution
Parametric f★μ/σ²
-84.97×
Merton continuous-time
Half-Kelly½ f★
0.00×
~⅔ of full growth, half the variance
Quarter-Kelly¼ f★
0.00×
industry default — survives model error
-0.01%0.02%0.05%0.07%0.10%0.0×1.6×3.2×4.8×6.4×8.0×leverage fraction fexpected log-growth per bar
g(f) empiricalf★ argmaxparametric f★
Maximum expected log-growth from leveraging the historical return distribution. Empirical f★ argmaxes the sample expectation; parametric f★ = μ/σ² is Merton's continuous-time optimum.

§18 · MC equity fan

Bootstrapped equity fan at 0.10× leverage
Median CAGR/bar -0.000% · annualized Sharpe -55.84400 paths × 720 bars · leverage 0.10× · bootstrap from 4999 observed returns
Sharpe / barμ/σ
-0.024
annualized -55.84
μ per barafter L
-0.000%
σ per barafter L
0.00%
VaR 95%5%
0.00%
per-bar worst-case
CVaR 95%ES
0.01%
mean tail loss
Max DD (median)MDD
-0.1%
0.95×0.97×0.99×1.01×1.03×1.05×0120240360480600720startbar #equity multiple
median25/75 band5/95 band
Median path with 25/75 and 5/95 percentile bands across 400 simulated careers. Bars resample with replacement from the observed return distribution — preserves fat tails the parametric model misses.

§19 · Annualized breakdown

Annualized return components
APR -1000% · APY -100% · Sharpe -60.24σ ann 71% · Sortino -52.28 · n 4999 · ⚠ capped (n=4999 too small to support 8760-bar projection)
-7229%-5766%-4303%-2840%-1378%85%-1000.0%APR (simple)-100.0%APY (compound)70.9%Ann. vol σ-6023.8%Sharpe (ann)-5227.7%Sortino (ann)
Simple APR vs compounded APY · annualized volatility · risk-adjusted Sharpe and Sortino. All scaled by √(periods/yr).

§20 · GARCH(1,1) volatility band

GARCH(1,1) · conditional vol envelope (±2σ)
GARCH persistence α+β = 0.980· σ̂ₜ = 1.000% · long-run σ = 2.236%
0.0780.0800.0820.0840.0860.088t-4999t-4166t-3333t-2500t-1666t-833t-0

Persistence near 1 ⇒ vol clusters strongly (slow mean reversion). Long-run σ is the unconditional target the conditional vol orbits. The ±2σ band reflects time-varying scale, unlike a flat-vol band.

Time-varying volatility band fitted to the price series. Persistence α+β > 0.98 means vol shocks decay slowly — recent moves stay relevant.

§∞ · Provenance & attestation

Upstream
api.hyperliquid.xyz
Snapshot fetched
2026-06-14 14:29:32 UTC
Snapshot age
2.9s
History points
25 hourly closes
Page rendered
2026-06-14 14:29:35 UTC
Storage policy
no persistence — fetched on every request
SHA-256 attestation
5ece8bbfb5679e803d577e380a124531f666dd4f05d27dd0daee561f1dc1ce79 · deterministic hash of the source snapshot — proves this page was rendered from this exact data
Open data licence
CC0 / public domain · free to mirror, syndicate, analyse

§∞-2 · Related markets · explore more

HL PREDGermany94.3¢HL PREDSpain90.3¢HL PREDUruguay66.7¢POLYMARKETWill Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?0¢POLYMARKETWill Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?0¢POLYMARKETWill Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?1¢HL PERPBTC-USD perpetual$64,158HL PERPETH-USD perpetual$1,665.15HL PERPHYPE-USD perpetual$60.13

Also see: /arb opportunities · RSS feed

Market depth

▸ live order book · Hyperliquid perp
Depth within 1bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Depth within 5bp
$27.31K
bid $13.08K · ask $14.22K
Depth within 10bp
$80.00K
bid $40.63K · ask $39.37K
Depth within 50bp
$87.83K
bid $46.41K · ask $41.42K
Mid price
0.081201
(best bid + best ask) / 2
Spread
2.8bp
(bestAsk − bestBid) / mid
Imbalance (whole book)
+0.058
bid-heavy
Imbalance (top-5)
-0.270
ask-heavy top-of-book

Slippage scenarios

▸ live book walk · Hyperliquid perp

Simulating a market order at three notionals against the live book. Slippage = avg execution price vs. mid, in basis points. Worst fill = price of the deepest level touched. Live JSON: /api/asset/hl-ENA/slippage?size=10000&side=buy

SideNotionalAvg fillSlippageWorst fillLevelsStatus
BUY$1.00K0.0812141.55bp0.0812282FILLED
BUY$10.00K0.0812323.71bp0.0812396FILLED
BUY$100.00K0.0812576.87bp0.08128420PARTIAL
SELL$1.00K0.0811901.45bp0.0811892FILLED
SELL$10.00K0.0811753.28bp0.0811638FILLED
SELL$100.00K0.0811407.59bp0.08111620PARTIAL

Funding carry

▸ SHORTS PAY · longs receive
Hourly funding
-7.322e-6
-0.00073% / hr
Annualised APR
-6.419%
hourly · 24 · 365.25
Long: days to 1% carry
56.9d
longs receive
Short: days to 1% carry
56.9d
shorts pay
SideDirectionAnnualised carryDays → 1%Days → 10%
LONGRECEIVE6.419%56.9d1.56y
SHORTPAY-6.419%56.9d1.56y

/api/asset/hl-ENA/carry · same metrics, JSON

Volume profile

▸ real volume · Hyperliquid candlesstep $ 1 · 25 records
Price binBarsVolumeDistribution
$0.000000–$1.0000★25$84.09M

★ POC = Point of Control (highest-volume bin). Live JSON: /api/asset/hl-ENA/volprofile?priceStep=1

Order flow

▸ ASK-LEAN · -0.433 · Hyperliquid candles
Bars (buy / sell)
11 / 13
1 unclassified
Buy weight
$22.47M
real volume
Sell weight
$56.72M
real volume
Net delta
$34.26M
sellers net
Imbalance
-43.26%
(buy − sell) / (buy + sell)
Toxicity (VPIN)
43.3%
two-sided / balanced
Impact (|Δp|/vol)
—
needs real volume

Sparkline = cumulative delta over the 25-record window./api/asset/hl-ENA/flow?rollingWindow=30

Cascade clusters

▸ DOWN · 4 found · deepest 2.66% · Hyperliquid candles

Price-only proxy for forced-unwind clusters. No exchange liquidation feed is wired — read each row as a candidate event, not a confirmed liquidation.

#WindowDurationPeak → TroughDrawdownBars
#12026-06-14 10:00:00Z4.0h0.083539→0.0813162.661%5
#22026-06-13 15:00:00Z4.0h0.086618→0.0845802.353%5
#32026-06-14 04:00:00Z4.0h0.084580→0.0829631.912%5

/api/asset/hl-ENA/cascades?windowMs=10800000&minDrawdownPct=0.005 · full list + parameters in JSON

Risk metrics

▸ sovereign store · 5,000 barsperiods/year ≈ 5.26M
Realized vol (annualised)
70.89%
σ per bar = 0.000309
Mean return (annualised)
-4270.27%
μ per bar = -0.000008
Sharpe (rf=0)
-60.24
annualised; risk-free assumed zero
Max drawdown
4.44%
peak 0.08 → trough 0.08 over 4351 bars

/api/asset/hl-ENA/risk · same metrics, JSON