HYPERLIQUID · PERPETUAL FUTURES

BTC

BTC-USD perpetual · 24/7 trading on Hyperliquid

▸ Advanced metrics · M2M bundle

hyperliquid · perp-btc · fresh · feed 4s old
24h sparkline · 60 pts▲ 0.06%
realized vol (ann.)
16.57%
max drawdown
0.64%
sharpe
-63.61
ulcer index
0.39%
RMS drawdown
pain index
0.33%
mean drawdown
mod. VaR 95%
0.01%
Cornish-Fisher
martin ratio
-2673.52
ret / ulcer
CDaR 95%
0.60%
cond. drawdown
gain/pain
0.89
Σgain / Σ|loss|
sterling
-1744.31
ret / CDaR
omega (θ=0)
0.89
upside/downside
roll spread
0.0 bps
implied (price-only)
bars used
2000
store
spread
—
24h Δ
0.06%
flow lean
—
carry
longs_pay
8.11%
signalNEUTRALconfidence 35%
  • funding: longs pay — perp shorts get paid to wait
  • mark cheap vs HL oracle by 12.7bps — long bias
Same bundle via M2M API: /api/m2m/hl-BTC/bundle · venue execution: hyperliquid →
LIVEPOLL0SRCFRESH3.9s⏱--:--:-- UTC8NEXT8.0sUP0s--:--HIST0/30
▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC FRESH·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC FRESH·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·
MARK · live
$64158.5
24h Δ · live
0.06%
24h vol · live
$1289.7M
BTC · live 24h price
n=25 · μ=64344.8000 · σ=168.3469 · range [63957.0000, 64600.0000] · R²=0.159▬ FLATσ LOW 0.26%LAST 64158.000064600.000064439.250064278.500064117.750063957.0000μ = 64344.8000max 64600.0000min 63957.0000dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.16μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxminlive endpoint
25 closes · last $64158.00
Funding direction · live
Long fee 47.4%Short fee 52.6%SHORT FEE52.6%
Σ = 0.0%
Σ-sides total = 0.00% (100.00pp arb gap)
H(p) entropy = 0.998 / 1.00 bits (100%) · max uncertainty (~50/50)
Long fee
47.4%▬ +0.00pp
Short fee
52.6%▬ +0.00pp
1h funding 0.000926% · longs pay
Hourly contract volume · live
n=25 · Σ=20,234 · μ=809.4 · σ=668.8 · CV=0.83BURSTYcumulative energy ↗ · 50% by h=1308641,7282,5923,456μ = 8093,455.60850%h1h5h9h13h17h21h25#1 peak#2-3> μactivequietμ linecum energy
peak 3456 contracts
Live numerics · pulse on poll
LIVE NUMERICS9 metrics·POLL 0
⏱snapshot age
3.9s
$mark $
$64,158.5
$mid $
$64,158.5
◉prev-day close
$64,118
Δ24h Δ %
+0.063%
$24h vol $
$1.29B
◐open interest $
$2.07B
%funding (1h)
0.000926%
%funding (yr)
+8.11%/yr

§1 · 24h time-series

Close price · hourly
n=25 · μ=64344.8000 · σ=168.3469 · range [63957.0000, 64600.0000] · R²=0.159▬ FLATσ LOW 0.26%LAST 64158.000064600.000064439.250064278.500064117.750063957.0000μ = 64344.8000max 64600.0000min 63957.0000dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.16μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
mark $64158.5000 · 24h 0.06% · range $[63957.0000, 64600.0000]
OHLC candles · hourly
n=25 · up 13 · down 12 (52% up) · range [63899.0000, 64750.0000] · σ=168.3469 · CV=0.00 · bodyµ=43%CONSOLIDATINGCLOSE 64158.0000 vs OPEN 64084.0000 (+0.12%)&#9650; CLOSE 64158.000064750.000064537.250064324.500064111.750063899.0000μ close = 64344.8000O64084.000 H64221.000 L64063.000 C64207.000 (+0.19%)O64084.000 H64221.000 L64063.000 C64207.000 (+0.19%)O64207.000 H64332.000 L64174.000 C64288.000 (+0.13%)O64207.000 H64332.000 L64174.000 C64288.000 (+0.13%)-0.4%O64289.000 H64298.000 L63899.000 C64010.000 (-0.43%)O64289.000 H64298.000 L63899.000 C64010.000 (-0.43%)O64011.000 H64106.000 L63917.000 C63957.000 (-0.08%)O64011.000 H64106.000 L63917.000 C63957.000 (-0.08%)O63958.000 H64271.000 L63953.000 C64130.000 (+0.27%)O63958.000 H64271.000 L63953.000 C64130.000 (+0.27%)O64130.000 H64315.000 L64120.000 C64271.000 (+0.22%)O64130.000 H64315.000 L64120.000 C64271.000 (+0.22%)O64272.000 H64280.000 L64204.000 C64263.000 (-0.01%)O64272.000 H64280.000 L64204.000 C64263.000 (-0.01%)O64264.000 H64750.000 L64201.000 C64450.000 (+0.29%)O64264.000 H64750.000 L64201.000 C64450.000 (+0.29%)O64449.000 H64545.000 L64350.000 C64431.000 (-0.03%)O64449.000 H64545.000 L64350.000 C64431.000 (-0.03%)O64430.000 H64574.000 L64363.000 C64427.000 (-0.00%)O64430.000 H64574.000 L64363.000 C64427.000 (-0.00%)O64427.000 H64568.000 L64351.000 C64544.000 (+0.18%)O64427.000 H64568.000 L64351.000 C64544.000 (+0.18%)O64544.000 H64697.000 L64481.000 C64555.000 (+0.02%)O64544.000 H64697.000 L64481.000 C64555.000 (+0.02%)O64555.000 H64617.000 L64445.000 C64471.000 (-0.13%)O64555.000 H64617.000 L64445.000 C64471.000 (-0.13%)O64471.000 H64529.000 L64447.000 C64525.000 (+0.08%)O64471.000 H64529.000 L64447.000 C64525.000 (+0.08%)O64526.000 H64540.000 L64298.000 C64313.000 (-0.33%)O64526.000 H64540.000 L64298.000 C64313.000 (-0.33%)O64312.000 H64383.000 L64275.000 C64320.000 (+0.01%)O64312.000 H64383.000 L64275.000 C64320.000 (+0.01%)O64321.000 H64461.000 L64213.000 C64261.000 (-0.09%)O64321.000 H64461.000 L64213.000 C64261.000 (-0.09%)O64261.000 H64435.000 L64207.000 C64408.000 (+0.23%)O64261.000 H64435.000 L64207.000 C64408.000 (+0.23%)O64409.000 H64488.000 L64377.000 C64438.000 (+0.05%)O64409.000 H64488.000 L64377.000 C64438.000 (+0.05%)O64438.000 H64600.000 L64283.000 C64600.000 (+0.25%)O64438.000 H64600.000 L64283.000 C64600.000 (+0.25%)O64600.000 H64655.000 L64454.000 C64494.000 (-0.16%)O64600.000 H64655.000 L64454.000 C64494.000 (-0.16%)O64494.000 H64618.000 L64431.000 C64518.000 (+0.04%)O64494.000 H64618.000 L64431.000 C64518.000 (+0.04%)O64518.000 H64540.000 L64274.000 C64300.000 (-0.34%)O64518.000 H64540.000 L64274.000 C64300.000 (-0.34%)O64300.000 H64374.000 L64221.000 C64281.000 (-0.03%)O64300.000 H64374.000 L64221.000 C64281.000 (-0.03%)O64282.000 H64317.000 L64156.000 C64158.000 (-0.19%)O64282.000 H64317.000 L64156.000 C64158.000 (-0.19%)#1#5#9#13#17#21#25up bar (C≥O)down bar (C<O)MA(5) closeμ closedoji (~no body)biggest body
25 bars
Hourly volume (base units)
n=25 · Σ=20,234 · μ=809.4 · σ=668.8 · CV=0.83BURSTYcumulative energy &nearr; · 50% by h=1308641,7282,5923,456μ = 809296.358 · 8.6% peak296.358 · 8.6% peak680.924 · 19.7% peak680.924 · 19.7% peak1,612.673 · 46.7% peak1,612.673 · 46.7% peak533.748 · 15.4% peak533.748 · 15.4% peak697.99 · 20.2% peak697.99 · 20.2% peak774.566 · 22.4% peak774.566 · 22.4% peak209.284 · 6.1% peak209.284 · 6.1% peak1,643.93 · 47.6% peak1,643.93 · 47.6% peak880.695 · 25.5% peak880.695 · 25.5% peak377.629 · 10.9% peak377.629 · 10.9% peak1,125.001 · 32.6% peak1,125.001 · 32.6% peak865.233 · 25.0% peak865.233 · 25.0% peak524.629 · 15.2% peak524.629 · 15.2% peak446.197 · 12.9% peak446.197 · 12.9% peak668.029 · 19.3% peak668.029 · 19.3% peak247.813 · 7.2% peak247.813 · 7.2% peak3,455.6083,455.608 · 100.0% peak3,455.608 · 100.0% peak888.191 · 25.7% peak888.191 · 25.7% peak323.713 · 9.4% peak323.713 · 9.4% peak988.662 · 28.6% peak988.662 · 28.6% peak914.424 · 26.5% peak914.424 · 26.5% peak394.425 · 11.4% peak394.425 · 11.4% peak644.295 · 18.6% peak644.295 · 18.6% peak809.397 · 23.4% peak809.397 · 23.4% peak230.379 · 6.7% peak230.379 · 6.7% peak50%#1#5#9#13#17#21#25#1 peak#2-3> μactivequietμ linecum energy
Σ vol 20234 · peak 3456 · CV 0.83

§2 · Returns distribution (log-returns)

Histogram of rₜ = ln(pₜ/pₜ₋₁)
n=24 · 12 bins · μ=-0.0001 · σ=0.0019 · skew=-0.40 (symmetric) · kurt=-0.49 (mesokurtic)54310 1-40.32bpbin -40.32bp · n=1 · 20.0% peakbin -40.32bp · n=1 · 20.0% peak 2-34.29bpbin -34.29bp · n=2 · 40.0% peakbin -34.29bp · n=2 · 40.0% peak-28.25bp-22.22bp 2-16.19bpbin -16.19bp · n=2 · 40.0% peakbin -16.19bp · n=2 · 40.0% peak 3-10.16bpbin -10.16bp · n=3 · 60.0% peakbin -10.16bp · n=3 · 60.0% peak 3-4.12bpbin -4.12bp · n=3 · 60.0% peakbin -4.12bp · n=3 · 60.0% peak 51.91bpbin 1.91bp · n=5 · 100.0% peakbin 1.91bp · n=5 · 100.0% peak 17.94bpbin 7.94bp · n=1 · 20.0% peakbin 7.94bp · n=1 · 20.0% peak 113.97bpbin 13.97bp · n=1 · 20.0% peakbin 13.97bp · n=1 · 20.0% peak 320.01bpbin 20.01bp · n=3 · 60.0% peakbin 20.01bp · n=3 · 60.0% peak 326.04bpbin 26.04bp · n=3 · 60.0% peakbin 26.04bp · n=3 · 60.0% peakμΔ < 0 · loss barsΔ ≈ 0 · flatΔ > 0 · gain barsN(μ,σ²) referenceμ line · ±σ band shaded
n=24 · positive 12 · negative 12
Q-Q plot · standardised rₜ vs N(0,1)
n=24 · skew=-0.42 · kurt=-0.43 · near 22 / mid 2 / far 0 · OLS slope=1.01 intercept=-0.00MATCHES NORMAL · WELL-BEHAVEDUPPER TAIL NORMALMILDLY HEAVY LOWER-3σ-3σ-2σ-2σ-1σ-1σ+0σ+0σ+1σ+1σ+2σ+2σ+3σ+3σsample ↓marginal: sample bars + theoretical N(0,1) curve →theoretical Φ⁻¹(p) →↑ sample z-quantile|Δ| < 0.3σ · on the line|Δ| < 1σ · moderate|Δ| ≥ 1σ · outliery = x refOLS fit

§3 · Spot quote

Mark price
$64,158.5
Mid price
$64,158.5
24h change
+0.06%
Mark–mid spread
0.00 bps
Prev-day close
$64,118

§4 · Sample moments (prices)

Descriptive statistics · 5-number summary · shape diagnostics
SAMPLE MOMENTS · N=25LEFT-SKEWED (G₁=-0.53)
μ MEAN64344.8000$95% CI: [64278.8080$, 64410.7920$]
σ STD DEV168.3469$σ² = 2.83e+4 · CV = 0.26%
med MEDIAN64320.0000$Q₁ 64263.0000$ · Q₃ 64471.0000$
FIVE-NUMBER SUMMARY · BOX PLOTrange 643.0000$ · IQR 208.0000$ (1.349σ→227.0999$)
min 63957.0000$Q₁ 64263.0000$med 64320.0000$Q₃ 64471.0000$max 64600.0000$μ
SKEWNESS · G₁-0.532left-skewed
−3−10+1+3
EXCESS KURTOSIS · G₂-0.518mesokurtic · normal-like
−30+2+4+6
μ ↔ medianμ > med · right-tailed|μ−med| / σ = 0.15
σ × 1.349 ↔ IQRconsistent with normalratio = 1.09
range ↔ σconcentrated (range < 4σ)range / σ = 3.82
μ = mean · σ = standard deviation · CV = coefficient of variation. Skew (G₁): >0 right-skewed. Kurt (G₂, excess): >0 leptokurtic. 95% CI = μ ± 1.96·SE.

§5 · Returns analytics (log-returns)

Risk-adjusted performance · log-returns
RETURNS · RISK-ADJUSTEDUNPROFITABLE · SR=-1.51
μᵣ MEAN / h-0.003181%drift is negative per h · |μ|/σ = 0.016
σᵣ STD / h0.196593%σ²ᵣ = 0.039×10⁻⁴ · CV = 61.80×
σ ANNUALISED18.40%/yrscaled by √8760 (hourly→yearly) · 0.197%/h base
RISK-ADJUSTED PERFORMANCEhigher = better edge per unit risk
SHARPE (annualised)-1.51negative edge
-2-10+1+2+3+4
SORTINO (annualised)-1.45downside drag
-2-10+1+2+3+4
CALMAR (return / max-DD)-40.73drawdown overwhelms returns
-20+2+4+6
RETURN-DISTRIBUTION SHAPE|skew| < 0.5 ≈ symmetric · |kurt| < 1 ≈ mesokurtic
SKEWNESS · G₁-0.44approximately symmetric
-3-10+1+3
EXCESS KURTOSIS · G₂-0.24mesokurtic · normal-like tails
-30+2+4+6
SORTINO vs SHARPEdownside vol < total vol · favourableSoR / SR = 0.96
CALMAR · DD CONTROLdrawdown > returns · adverseCR = -40.73
EXPECTED EDGE-27.87%/yr driftμ × 8760 = annualised expectation
rₜ = ln(pₜ/pₜ₋₁). σ × √8760 = annualised. Sharpe = μ/σ scaled; Sortino uses downside-only vol; Calmar = annual return / max drawdown.

§6 · Risk metrics

Tail risk + drawdown · downside diagnostics
TAIL & DRAWDOWN RISKMODERATE · 95% VaR 0.34%
VaR₉₅ (h)0.337%5% prob of larger adverse h move
VaR₉₉ (h)0.412%1% prob · extreme-tail threshold
ES₉₅ (CVaR)0.386%expected loss given 5% tail event
MAX DRAWDOWN0.68%5h from peak to trough
TAIL-RISK LADDER (h losses)larger negative = worse · markers show severity
0 · no lossVaR₉₅−0.337%VaR₉₉−0.412%ES₉₅−0.386%worst tail ←→ zero loss
MAX DRAWDOWN PROFILEshallow drawdown · 5h duration
PEAK6460000.00$
−0.68% drawdown over 5h
6415800.00$TROUGH
ES / VaR · TAIL THICKNESSmild tail heaviness|ES₉₅| / |VaR₉₅| = 1.14× (normal ≈ 1.25)
VaR₉₉ / VaR₉₅ · CONCENTRATIONuniform tailratio = 1.22× (normal ≈ 1.41)
DRAWDOWN · CAPITAL DURATIONshallow drawdownrecovery needed: +0.69% (compounding)
VaR = quantile loss · ES (CVaR) = expected loss conditional on tail · DD = peak-to-trough decline. Under normality ES₉₅/VaR₉₅ ≈ 1.25; ratio > 1.5 ⇒ fat-tail regime.

§7 · Technicals

RSI(14)
44.6 · neutral
Bollinger %B
0.003 · within band
Bollinger upper
$64646.4653
Bollinger MA
$64401.4000
Bollinger lower
$64156.3347

§8 · Time-series structure

Regime & autocorrelation diagnostics
TIME-SERIES STRUCTUREREGIME: MARTINGALE · UNPREDICTABLE
ρ(1) AUTOCORR-0.093within white-noise band
ρ(2) AUTOCORR+0.155lag-2 not significant
H · HURST EXPONENT0.910strongly persistent
OLS TREND · t-STAT+2.083significant @ α=0.05
HURST EXPONENT [0, 1]strongly persistent · H = 0.910
H = 0.910STRONGLY PERSISTENT
0
anti-persistent0.45
mean-reverting0.5
random walk0.55
persistent1
strongly trending
AUTOCORRELATION FUNCTION · ρ(k) for k=1..51 SIGNIFICANT LAG · k=5
k=1-0.093k=2+0.155k=3-0.172k=4-0.002k=5 ★-0.4090+1−1+0.41−0.41+ momentum (ρ > +0.41)− reversal (ρ < −0.41)noise (within band)±2/√n threshold
OLS TREND · t-STAT · [-5, +5]SIGNIFICANT @ 5% (|t|=2.08)
−5 reject−1.960 retain H₀+1.96+5 reject
REGIME CLASSIFICATIONMARTINGALE · UNPREDICTABLEfrom Hurst + ρ(1) joint diagnosis
PREDICTABILITY · score 0.91very high · strong structure|ρ(1)| + 2·|H − 0.5| heuristic
TREND SIGNIFICANCESIGNIFICANT @ 5% (|t|=2.08)α=0.05 critical |t|=1.96 · α=0.01 |t|=2.58
ρ(k) = lag-k sample autocorrelation · H = R/S Hurst exponent · t = OLS-trend t-statistic. Significance bands at ±2/√n approximate the 95% white-noise envelope. α=0.05 critical |t|=1.96; α=0.01 |t|=2.58.

§9 · Microstructure

24h volume (USD)
$1.29B
Open interest (USD)
$2.07B
Vol / OI (turnover)
0.62x
1h funding
0.000926%
Funding (annualised)
+8.11%/yr

§10 · Position sizing

Continuous Kelly (μ/σ²)
-8.231× leverage · optimal log-utility leverage
Half-Kelly
-4.115× · industry-standard conservative
Quarter-Kelly
-2.058×

§11 · Hourly return heatmap

24-hour signed Δln-r grid · green = up · red = down
HOURLY RETURN HEATMAP · n=24 bars · best 0.29% · worst -0.43% · typical |Δ| 0.15%MIXED · 12 UP / 12 DN · neutralBEST+0.29%21hWORST-0.43%16hTYPICAL |Δ|0.15%mean absoluteCUMULATIVE-0.08%Σ signed ΔSTREAK↘ 3down-runASIA · 00-08 UTCμ -0.00% · Σ -0.03%EUROPE · 08-16 UTCμ -0.03% · Σ -0.26%US · 16-24 UTCμ +0.03% · Σ +0.22%CUMULATIVE Δ PATH · final -0.08%+0.61%-0.39%0.13% · 15h0.13% · 15h0.13%15h-0.43% · 16h-0.43% · 16h-0.43%16h▼ WORST-0.08% · 17h-0.08% · 17h-0.08%17h0.27% · 18h0.27% · 18h0.27%18h0.22% · 19h0.22% · 19h0.22%19h-0.01% · 20h-0.01% · 20h-0.01%20h0.29% · 21h0.29% · 21h0.29%21h★ BEST-0.03% · 22h-0.03% · 22h-0.03%22h-0.01% · 23h-0.01% · 23h-0.01%23h0.18% · 00h0.18% · 00h0.18%00h0.02% · 01h0.02% · 01h0.02%01h-0.13% · 02h-0.13% · 02h-0.13%02h0.08% · 03h0.08% · 03h0.08%03h-0.33% · 04h-0.33% · 04h-0.33%04h0.01% · 05h0.01% · 05h0.01%05h-0.09% · 06h-0.09% · 06h-0.09%06h0.23% · 07h0.23% · 07h0.23%07h0.05% · 08h0.05% · 08h0.05%08h0.25% · 09h0.25% · 09h0.25%09h-0.16% · 10h-0.16% · 10h-0.16%10h0.04% · 11h0.04% · 11h0.04%11h-0.34% · 12h-0.34% · 12h-0.34%12h-0.03% · 13h-0.03% · 13h-0.03%13h-0.19% · 14h-0.19% · 14h-0.19%14hTIME PATTERNUS-led (+0.22%)RUNSup max 3 · down max 3BREADTH50% up · 50% down
12 up bars · 12 down · best 0.29% · worst -0.43% · typical |Δ| 0.150%

§12 · Equity curve & underwater drawdown

Cumulative compounded return + running peak-to-trough
EQUITY & DRAWDOWN ANALYSIS · n=25 barsFLAT · NO MATERIAL MOVEMENTFINAL-0.08%MAX DD-0.69%RECOVERYONGOING · 5 barsMAX RUN-UP+0.61%UNDERWATER19/25 (76%)STREAK↘ 3EQUITY CURVE · end 0.9992 · peak 1.0061 · range [0.9961, 1.0061]1.00610.9961break-even = 1★ PEAK 1.0061UNDERWATER DRAWDOWN · max -0.69% · shallow0%-0.69%▼ TROUGH -0.69%TOP DRAWDOWN PERIODS · 4 total#1 -0.69%bar 21-25 · 5 bars · ONGOING#2 -0.52%bar 3-7 · 5 bars · recovered#3 -0.46%bar 13-19 · 7 bars · recoveredDD SEVERITYshallow (max -0.69%)RECOVERYongoing · 5 barsTIME UNDER WATER76% of session · 19/25 bars
final equity 0.9992 (-0.08%) · max DD -0.69% · time-under-water 19/25 bars

§13 · Rolling-window statistics (w = 6 bars)

Rolling annualised Sharpe ratio · green positive · red negative
n=19 · +12 / −7 (63% positive) · μ=13.07 · σ=34.48MIXED EDGELAST -33.00 (-1.34σ vs μ)74.5537.280.00-37.28-74.55μ = 13.075.295.2914.0614.0660.7060.7074.5574.5571.8371.8352.3552.3532.8032.8017.1717.17-15.99-15.99-14.45-14.45-46.44-46.44-18.52-18.52-4.24-4.248.418.4126.2226.2228.8128.814.154.15-15.30-15.30-33.00-33.00v > 0 · positivev < 0 · negativeμ mean lineμ ± σ bandlatest bar (outlined)
latest -32.997 · range [-46.44, 74.55] · μ 13.075 · positive Sharpe = excess-return-per-risk earned by buying-and-holding through this window
Rolling annualised volatility (%)
n=19 · μ=17.0394 · σ=4.0116 · range [9.8898, 26.1363] · R²=0.001▼ FALLING -19.95%σ EXTREME 23.54%LAST 19.268126.136322.074718.013113.95149.8898μ = 17.0394max 26.1363min 9.8898dataMA(3)OLS R²=0.00μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
latest 19.27% · range [9.89%, 26.14%] · μ 17.04% · σ̂ scaled to annualised (×√8760)
Rolling lag-1 autocorrelation ρ(1)
n=19 · +2 / −17 (11% positive) · μ=-0.303 · σ=0.218MEAN-REVERSIONLAST -0.403 (-0.46σ vs μ)0.7100.3550.000-0.355-0.710μ = -0.3030.0470.0470.1240.124-0.520-0.520-0.234-0.234-0.547-0.547-0.550-0.550-0.172-0.172-0.225-0.225-0.219-0.219-0.322-0.322-0.710-0.710-0.422-0.422-0.248-0.248-0.032-0.032-0.454-0.454-0.485-0.485-0.152-0.152-0.229-0.229-0.403-0.403v > 0 · positivev < 0 · negativeμ mean lineμ ± σ bandlatest bar (outlined)
latest -0.403 · |ρ| > 0.3 ⇒ regime with persistence (ρ > 0) or reversal (ρ < 0) · |ρ| ≤ 0.1 = consistent with random walk

§14 · Hypothesis tests (α = 0.05)

Formal inference at 5% significance
ALL TESTS PASS · data behaves as nominal0 reject·6 pass·α = 0.05
𝒩

Jarque-Bera

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Δln-r ~ Normal(μ, σ²)

STATISTIC
0.8447
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.6555
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainednormality not rejected
ρ

Ljung-Box(h=5)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: No serial autocorrelation up to lag 5

STATISTIC
7.2926
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.1986
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedconsistent with white noise
Ψ

Dickey-Fuller (τ_μ)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: p has a unit root (non-stationary)

STATISTIC
-1.8144
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.3836
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedrandom-walk behaviour (crit ≈ -2.86)
±

Wald-Wolfowitz runs

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Sign sequence of Δ is random

STATISTIC
1.2523
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.2105
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedsigns appear random (16 runs)
χ

KPSS (μ stationarity)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: p IS level-stationary

STATISTIC
0.2991
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.1838
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedstationary not rejected (crit 0.463)
χ

Variance ratio q=3

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Δln-r is a random walk · VR = 1

STATISTIC
-0.0375
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.9701
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedVR 0.989 ≈ 1 (RW behaviour)
Each row states an explicit null H₀, the test statistic, an approximated p-value, and the decision. REJECT means evidence against H₀. KPSS complements ADF (rejecting both ⇒ ambiguous; rejecting one ⇒ clean verdict).

§15 · Spectral analysis (DFT periodogram)

Power spectrum of Δln-r · ‖X̂(k)‖²/n
n=12 bins · noise floor μ=4.68e-6 · top T=2.00h (41.6%) · top-3 cover 69.5%STRONG CYCLE @ T≈2.0cumulative energy ↗ (2 bins above 2× noise)2.3e-51.8e-51.2e-55.8e-60.0e+0μ noise floor2× noise (significance)period 24.0 · power 2.41e-6 · 4.3% energyperiod 24.0 · power 2.41e-6 · 4.3% energyperiod 12.0 · power 9.54e-6 · 17.0% energyperiod 12.0 · power 9.54e-6 · 17.0% energyperiod 8.0 · power 9.36e-7 · 1.7% energyperiod 8.0 · power 9.36e-7 · 1.7% energyperiod 6.0 · power 4.13e-6 · 7.4% energyperiod 6.0 · power 4.13e-6 · 7.4% energyperiod 4.8 · power 1.44e-6 · 2.6% energyperiod 4.8 · power 1.44e-6 · 2.6% energyperiod 4.0 · power 1.48e-6 · 2.6% energyperiod 4.0 · power 1.48e-6 · 2.6% energyperiod 3.4 · power 2.45e-6 · 4.4% energyperiod 3.4 · power 2.45e-6 · 4.4% energyperiod 3.0 · power 6.09e-6 · 10.8% energyperiod 3.0 · power 6.09e-6 · 10.8% energyperiod 2.7 · power 1.70e-6 · 3.0% energyperiod 2.7 · power 1.70e-6 · 3.0% energyperiod 2.4 · power 1.73e-7 · 0.3% energyperiod 2.4 · power 1.73e-7 · 0.3% energyperiod 2.2 · power 2.41e-6 · 4.3% energyperiod 2.2 · power 2.41e-6 · 4.3% energyperiod 2.0 · power 2.34e-5 · 41.6% energyperiod 2.0 · power 2.34e-5 · 41.6% energy50% by T=3.0h#1 dominantT=2.00h#2T=12.00h#3T=3.00hT=2hT=3hT=4hT=6hT=8hT=12hT=16hT=24h← shorter cycle (high freq · Nyquist=½) · period T (bars per cycle) · longer cycle (low freq · 1/n) →#1 dominant#2 peak#3 peak> 2× noisenoiseμ floor2μ sig.cum energy
dominant period ≈ 2.00h (freq 0.500) · concentrates 41.6% of total energy · Σ|X̂|²/n = 5.613e-5

▸ Depth section using sovereign-store price series (5000 bars · effective 5257847 bars/year) — annualisation reflects native polling cadence, not upstream timeframes.

§16 · NOSTRADAMUS continuous quant — perp leverage & bootstrap MC

Continuous-price extension of the prediction-market quant module. Kelly growth on observed returns (Merton μ/σ² parametric vs argmax empirical), Monte-Carlo equity fan bootstrapped from the historical return distribution at quarter-Kelly leverage, and an annualized return decomposition. Sweep parameters in the simulator.

§17 · Continuous Kelly

Continuous-Kelly growth · g(f) = E[ln(1 + f·r)]
NO LONG EDGE · μ -0.000% per barparametric μ/σ² short edge (μ<0) · μ -0.000% · σ 0.01%
μ per barmean
-0.000%
σ per barvol
0.01%
Empirical f★argmax g(f)
0.00×
from observed distribution
Parametric f★μ/σ²
-140.71×
Merton continuous-time
Half-Kelly½ f★
0.00×
~⅔ of full growth, half the variance
Quarter-Kelly¼ f★
0.00×
industry default — survives model error
-0.00%0.02%0.05%0.07%0.10%0.0×1.6×3.2×4.8×6.4×8.0×leverage fraction fexpected log-growth per bar
g(f) empiricalf★ argmaxparametric f★
Maximum expected log-growth from leveraging the historical return distribution. Empirical f★ argmaxes the sample expectation; parametric f★ = μ/σ² is Merton's continuous-time optimum.

§18 · MC equity fan

Bootstrapped equity fan at 0.10× leverage
Median CAGR/bar -0.000% · annualized Sharpe -18.05400 paths × 720 bars · leverage 0.10× · bootstrap from 4999 observed returns
Sharpe / barμ/σ
-0.008
annualized -18.05
μ per barafter L
-0.000%
σ per barafter L
0.00%
VaR 95%5%
0.00%
per-bar worst-case
CVaR 95%ES
0.00%
mean tail loss
Max DD (median)MDD
-0.0%
0.95×0.97×0.99×1.01×1.03×1.05×0120240360480600720startbar #equity multiple
median25/75 band5/95 band
Median path with 25/75 and 5/95 percentile bands across 400 simulated careers. Bars resample with replacement from the observed return distribution — preserves fat tails the parametric model misses.

§19 · Annualized breakdown

Annualized return components
APR -329% · APY -96% · Sharpe -21.51σ ann 15% · Sortino -15.99 · n 4999
-2581%-2061%-1541%-1021%-502%18%-328.7%APR (simple)-96.3%APY (compound)15.3%Ann. vol σ-2150.7%Sharpe (ann)-1598.5%Sortino (ann)
Simple APR vs compounded APY · annualized volatility · risk-adjusted Sharpe and Sortino. All scaled by √(periods/yr).

§20 · GARCH(1,1) volatility band

GARCH(1,1) · conditional vol envelope (±2σ)
GARCH persistence α+β = 0.980· σ̂ₜ = 1.000% · long-run σ = 2.236%
616726279063909650276614567264t-4999t-4166t-3333t-2500t-1666t-833t-0

Persistence near 1 ⇒ vol clusters strongly (slow mean reversion). Long-run σ is the unconditional target the conditional vol orbits. The ±2σ band reflects time-varying scale, unlike a flat-vol band.

Time-varying volatility band fitted to the price series. Persistence α+β > 0.98 means vol shocks decay slowly — recent moves stay relevant.

§∞ · Provenance & attestation

Upstream
api.hyperliquid.xyz
Snapshot fetched
2026-06-14 14:29:17 UTC
Snapshot age
3.9s
History points
25 hourly closes
Page rendered
2026-06-14 14:29:18 UTC
Storage policy
no persistence — fetched on every request
SHA-256 attestation
ee11ec0cd8f87d158f47d166f9979837d020f94754c6f47632f8c3dec57f388a · deterministic hash of the source snapshot — proves this page was rendered from this exact data
Open data licence
CC0 / public domain · free to mirror, syndicate, analyse

§∞-2 · Related markets · explore more

HL PREDGermany94.3¢HL PREDSpain90.3¢HL PREDUruguay66.7¢POLYMARKETWill Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?0¢POLYMARKETWill Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?0¢POLYMARKETWill Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?1¢HL PERPBTC-USD perpetual$64,158.5HL PERPETH-USD perpetual$1,665.35HL PERPHYPE-USD perpetual$60.22

Also see: /arb opportunities · RSS feed

Market depth

▸ live order book · Hyperliquid perp
Depth within 1bp
$2.41M
bid $2.39M · ask $20.29K
Depth within 5bp
$15.02M
bid $10.36M · ask $4.66M
Depth within 10bp
$15.02M
bid $10.36M · ask $4.66M
Depth within 50bp
$15.02M
bid $10.36M · ask $4.66M
Mid price
64158.500000
(best bid + best ask) / 2
Spread
0.2bp
(bestAsk − bestBid) / mid
Imbalance (whole book)
+0.379
bid-heavy
Imbalance (top-5)
+0.962
bid-heavy top-of-book

Slippage scenarios

▸ live book walk · Hyperliquid perp

Simulating a market order at three notionals against the live book. Slippage = avg execution price vs. mid, in basis points. Worst fill = price of the deepest level touched. Live JSON: /api/asset/hl-BTC/slippage?size=10000&side=buy

SideNotionalAvg fillSlippageWorst fillLevelsStatus
BUY$1.00K64159.000.08bp64159.001FILLED
BUY$10.00K64159.000.08bp64159.001FILLED
BUY$100.00K64166.081.18bp64169.008FILLED
SELL$1.00K64158.000.08bp64158.001FILLED
SELL$10.00K64158.000.08bp64158.001FILLED
SELL$100.00K64158.000.08bp64158.001FILLED

Funding carry

▸ LONGS PAY · shorts receive
Hourly funding
+9.262e-6
0.00093% / hr
Annualised APR
8.119%
hourly · 24 · 365.25
Long: days to 1% carry
45.0d
longs pay
Short: days to 1% carry
45.0d
shorts receive
SideDirectionAnnualised carryDays → 1%Days → 10%
LONGPAY-8.119%45.0d1.23y
SHORTRECEIVE8.119%45.0d1.23y

/api/asset/hl-BTC/carry · same metrics, JSON

Volume profile

▸ real volume · Hyperliquid candlesstep $ 64 · 25 records
Price binBarsVolumeDistribution
$64576.00–$64640.001$989
$64512.00–$64576.004$2.83K
$64448.00–$64512.003$3.08K
$64384.00–$64448.004$2.47K
$64320.00–$64384.001$248
$64256.00–$64320.00★7$7.24K
$64192.00–$64256.001$296
$64128.00–$64192.002$928
$64000.00–$64064.001$1.61K
$63936.00–$64000.001$534

★ POC = Point of Control (highest-volume bin). Live JSON: /api/asset/hl-BTC/volprofile?priceStep=64

Order flow

▸ ASK-LEAN · -0.089 · Hyperliquid candles
Bars (buy / sell)
12 / 12
1 unclassified
Buy weight
$9.08K
real volume
Sell weight
$10.86K
real volume
Net delta
$1.78K
sellers net
Imbalance
-8.95%
(buy − sell) / (buy + sell)
Toxicity (VPIN)
8.9%
two-sided / balanced
Impact (|Δp|/vol)
—
needs real volume

Sparkline = cumulative delta over the 25-record window./api/asset/hl-BTC/flow?rollingWindow=30

Cascade clusters

▸ DOWN · 2 found · deepest 0.56% · Hyperliquid candles

Price-only proxy for forced-unwind clusters. No exchange liquidation feed is wired — read each row as a candidate event, not a confirmed liquidation.

#WindowDurationPeak → TroughDrawdownBars
#12026-06-14 14:00:00Z0ms64518.00→64158.000.558%1
#22026-06-13 17:00:00Z0ms64288.00→63957.000.515%1

/api/asset/hl-BTC/cascades?windowMs=10800000&minDrawdownPct=0.005 · full list + parameters in JSON

Risk metrics

▸ sovereign store · 5,000 barsperiods/year ≈ 5.26M
Realized vol (annualised)
15.29%
σ per bar = 0.000067
Mean return (annualised)
-328.75%
μ per bar = -0.000001
Sharpe (rf=0)
-21.51
annualised; risk-free assumed zero
Max drawdown
0.67%
peak 64639.00 → trough 64207.00 over 2315 bars

/api/asset/hl-BTC/risk · same metrics, JSON