HYPERLIQUID · PERPETUAL FUTURES

BIGTIME

BIGTIME-USD perpetual · 24/7 trading on Hyperliquid

▸ Advanced metrics · M2M bundle

hyperliquid · perp-bigtime · fresh · feed 1s old
24h sparkline · 60 pts▲ 3.05%
realized vol (ann.)
161.42%
max drawdown
4.66%
sharpe
30.86
ulcer index
2.02%
RMS drawdown
pain index
1.25%
mean drawdown
mod. VaR 95%
0.11%
Cornish-Fisher
martin ratio
2468.20
ret / ulcer
CDaR 95%
4.27%
cond. drawdown
gain/pain
1.06
Σgain / Σ|loss|
sterling
1165.73
ret / CDaR
omega (θ=0)
1.06
upside/downside
roll spread
0.0 bps
implied (price-only)
bars used
2000
store
spread
—
24h Δ
3.05%
flow lean
—
carry
shorts_pay
-58.49%
signalLONGconfidence 43%suggested side: BUY
  • 24h change +3.05%
  • funding: shorts pay — perp longs get paid to wait
  • mark cheap vs HL oracle by 15.3bps — long bias
Same bundle via M2M API: /api/m2m/hl-BIGTIME/bundle · venue execution: hyperliquid →
LIVEPOLL0SRCFRESH591ms⏱--:--:-- UTC8NEXT8.0sUP0s--:--HIST0/30
▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC FRESH·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC FRESH·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·
MARK · live
$0.009
24h Δ · live
3.05%
24h vol · live
$0.2M
BIGTIME · live 24h price
n=25 · μ=0.0090 · σ=0.0001 · range [0.0088, 0.0092] · R²=0.520▲ RISING +3.04%σ NORMAL 1.06%LAST 0.00910.00920.00910.00900.00890.0088μ = 0.0090max 0.0092min 0.0088dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.52μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxminlive endpoint
25 closes · last $0.01
Funding direction · live
Long fee 49.6%Short fee 50.4%SHORT FEE50.4%
Σ = 0.0%
Σ-sides total = 0.01% (99.99pp arb gap)
H(p) entropy = 1.000 / 1.00 bits (100%) · max uncertainty (~50/50)
Long fee
49.6%▬ +0.00pp
Short fee
50.4%▬ +0.00pp
1h funding -0.006677% · shorts pay
Hourly contract volume · live
n=25 · Σ=18,293,524 · μ=731741.0 · σ=907627.4 · CV=1.24BURSTY · concentratedcumulative energy ↗ · 50% by h=160958,1121,916,2242,874,3363,832,448μ = 7317413,832,44850%h1h5h9h13h17h21h25#1 peak#2-3> μactivequietμ linecum energy
peak 3832448 contracts
Live numerics · pulse on poll
LIVE NUMERICS9 metrics·POLL 0
⏱snapshot age
591ms
$mark $
$0.0091
$mid $
$0.0091
◉prev-day close
$0.0089
Δ24h Δ %
+3.051%
$24h vol $
$165.06k
◐open interest $
$215.39k
%funding (1h)
-0.006677%
%funding (yr)
-58.49%/yr

§1 · 24h time-series

Close price · hourly
n=25 · μ=0.0090 · σ=0.0001 · range [0.0088, 0.0092] · R²=0.520▲ RISING +3.04%σ NORMAL 1.06%LAST 0.00910.00920.00910.00900.00890.0088μ = 0.0090max 0.0092min 0.0088dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.52μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
mark $0.0091 · 24h 3.05% · range $[0.0088, 0.0092]
OHLC candles · hourly
n=25 · up 12 · down 13 (48% up) · range [0.0088, 0.0094] · σ=0.0001 · CV=0.01 · bodyµ=52%BULLISH +3.51%CLOSE 0.0091 vs OPEN 0.0088 (+3.51%)&#9650; CLOSE 0.00910.00940.00930.00910.00900.0088μ close = 0.0090O0.009 H0.009 L0.009 C0.009 (+0.45%)O0.009 H0.009 L0.009 C0.009 (+0.45%)O0.009 H0.009 L0.009 C0.009 (+1.81%)O0.009 H0.009 L0.009 C0.009 (+1.81%)O0.009 H0.009 L0.009 C0.009 (-1.35%)O0.009 H0.009 L0.009 C0.009 (-1.35%)O0.009 H0.009 L0.009 C0.009 (-0.47%)O0.009 H0.009 L0.009 C0.009 (-0.47%)O0.009 H0.009 L0.009 C0.009 (-0.82%)O0.009 H0.009 L0.009 C0.009 (-0.82%)O0.009 H0.009 L0.009 C0.009 (+1.23%)O0.009 H0.009 L0.009 C0.009 (+1.23%)O0.009 H0.009 L0.009 C0.009 (-0.70%)O0.009 H0.009 L0.009 C0.009 (-0.70%)O0.009 H0.009 L0.009 C0.009 (+0.56%)O0.009 H0.009 L0.009 C0.009 (+0.56%)O0.009 H0.009 L0.009 C0.009 (-0.10%)O0.009 H0.009 L0.009 C0.009 (-0.10%)O0.009 H0.009 L0.009 C0.009 (-0.01%)O0.009 H0.009 L0.009 C0.009 (-0.01%)O0.009 H0.009 L0.009 C0.009 (+0.03%)O0.009 H0.009 L0.009 C0.009 (+0.03%)O0.009 H0.009 L0.009 C0.009 (+1.77%)O0.009 H0.009 L0.009 C0.009 (+1.77%)O0.009 H0.009 L0.009 C0.009 (-0.62%)O0.009 H0.009 L0.009 C0.009 (-0.62%)O0.009 H0.009 L0.009 C0.009 (+0.56%)O0.009 H0.009 L0.009 C0.009 (+0.56%)O0.009 H0.009 L0.009 C0.009 (-0.48%)O0.009 H0.009 L0.009 C0.009 (-0.48%)O0.009 H0.009 L0.009 C0.009 (+0.28%)O0.009 H0.009 L0.009 C0.009 (+0.28%)O0.009 H0.009 L0.009 C0.009 (-0.48%)O0.009 H0.009 L0.009 C0.009 (-0.48%)O0.009 H0.009 L0.009 C0.009 (-0.28%)O0.009 H0.009 L0.009 C0.009 (-0.28%)O0.009 H0.009 L0.009 C0.009 (-0.16%)O0.009 H0.009 L0.009 C0.009 (-0.16%)O0.009 H0.009 L0.009 C0.009 (+0.75%)O0.009 H0.009 L0.009 C0.009 (+0.75%)O0.009 H0.009 L0.009 C0.009 (-0.81%)O0.009 H0.009 L0.009 C0.009 (-0.81%)O0.009 H0.009 L0.009 C0.009 (+0.68%)O0.009 H0.009 L0.009 C0.009 (+0.68%)2.3%O0.009 H0.009 L0.009 C0.009 (+2.30%)O0.009 H0.009 L0.009 C0.009 (+2.30%)O0.009 H0.009 L0.009 C0.009 (-1.26%)O0.009 H0.009 L0.009 C0.009 (-1.26%)O0.009 H0.009 L0.009 C0.009 (+0.75%)O0.009 H0.009 L0.009 C0.009 (+0.75%)#1#5#9#13#17#21#25up bar (C≥O)down bar (C<O)MA(5) closeμ closedoji (~no body)biggest body
25 bars
Hourly volume (base units)
n=25 · Σ=18,293,524 · μ=731741.0 · σ=907627.4 · CV=1.24BURSTY · concentratedcumulative energy &nearr; · 50% by h=160958,1121,916,2242,874,3363,832,448μ = 731741133,150 · 3.5% peak133,150 · 3.5% peak2,676,552 · 69.8% peak2,676,552 · 69.8% peak792,350 · 20.7% peak792,350 · 20.7% peak187,733 · 4.9% peak187,733 · 4.9% peak620,183 · 16.2% peak620,183 · 16.2% peak205,294 · 5.4% peak205,294 · 5.4% peak144,305 · 3.8% peak144,305 · 3.8% peak215,577 · 5.6% peak215,577 · 5.6% peak174,552 · 4.6% peak174,552 · 4.6% peak304,972 · 8.0% peak304,972 · 8.0% peak769,709 · 20.1% peak769,709 · 20.1% peak998,305 · 26.0% peak998,305 · 26.0% peak436,297 · 11.4% peak436,297 · 11.4% peak582,325 · 15.2% peak582,325 · 15.2% peak749,634 · 19.6% peak749,634 · 19.6% peak357,569 · 9.3% peak357,569 · 9.3% peak634,357 · 16.6% peak634,357 · 16.6% peak380,651 · 9.9% peak380,651 · 9.9% peak374,105 · 9.8% peak374,105 · 9.8% peak258,729 · 6.8% peak258,729 · 6.8% peak200,796 · 5.2% peak200,796 · 5.2% peak212,299 · 5.5% peak212,299 · 5.5% peak2,448,570 · 63.9% peak2,448,570 · 63.9% peak3,832,4483,832,448 · 100.0% peak3,832,448 · 100.0% peak603,062 · 15.7% peak603,062 · 15.7% peak50%#1#5#9#13#17#21#25#1 peak#2-3> μactivequietμ linecum energy
Σ vol 18293524 · peak 3832448 · CV 1.24

§2 · Returns distribution (log-returns)

Histogram of rₜ = ln(pₜ/pₜ₋₁)
n=24 · 12 bins · μ=0.0011 · σ=0.0089 · skew=0.58 (right-skewed) · kurt=-0.55 (mesokurtic)43210 3-105.53bpbin -105.53bp · n=3 · 75.0% peakbin -105.53bp · n=3 · 75.0% peak 3-76.40bpbin -76.40bp · n=3 · 75.0% peakbin -76.40bp · n=3 · 75.0% peak 3-47.28bpbin -47.28bp · n=3 · 75.0% peakbin -47.28bp · n=3 · 75.0% peak 3-18.15bpbin -18.15bp · n=3 · 75.0% peakbin -18.15bp · n=3 · 75.0% peak 310.98bpbin 10.98bp · n=3 · 75.0% peakbin 10.98bp · n=3 · 75.0% peak 140.10bpbin 40.10bp · n=1 · 25.0% peakbin 40.10bp · n=1 · 25.0% peak 469.23bpbin 69.23bp · n=4 · 100.0% peakbin 69.23bp · n=4 · 100.0% peak98.35bp 1127.48bpbin 127.48bp · n=1 · 25.0% peakbin 127.48bp · n=1 · 25.0% peak 2156.60bpbin 156.60bp · n=2 · 50.0% peakbin 156.60bp · n=2 · 50.0% peak185.73bp 1214.85bpbin 214.85bp · n=1 · 25.0% peakbin 214.85bp · n=1 · 25.0% peakμΔ < 0 · loss barsΔ ≈ 0 · flatΔ > 0 · gain barsN(μ,σ²) referenceμ line · ±σ band shaded
n=24 · positive 12 · negative 12
Q-Q plot · standardised rₜ vs N(0,1)
n=24 · skew=0.61 · kurt=-0.31 · near 21 / mid 3 / far 0 · OLS slope=1.01 intercept=-0.00APPROXIMATELY NORMALMILDLY HEAVY UPPERLOWER TAIL NORMAL-3σ-3σ-2σ-2σ-1σ-1σ+0σ+0σ+1σ+1σ+2σ+2σ+3σ+3σsample ↓marginal: sample bars + theoretical N(0,1) curve →theoretical Φ⁻¹(p) →↑ sample z-quantile|Δ| < 0.3σ · on the line|Δ| < 1σ · moderate|Δ| ≥ 1σ · outliery = x refOLS fit

§3 · Spot quote

Mark price
$0.0091
Mid price
$0.0091
24h change
+3.05%
Mark–mid spread
7.68 bps
Prev-day close
$0.0089

§4 · Sample moments (prices)

Descriptive statistics · 5-number summary · shape diagnostics
SAMPLE MOMENTS · N=25RIGHT-SKEWED (G₁=0.63)
μ MEAN0.0090$95% CI: [0.0089$, 0.0090$]
σ STD DEV0.0001$σ² = 0.000×10⁻⁴ · CV = 1.06%
med MEDIAN0.0090$Q₁ 0.0089$ · Q₃ 0.0090$
FIVE-NUMBER SUMMARY · BOX PLOTrange 0.0004$ · IQR 0.0001$ (1.349σ→0.0001$)
min 0.0088$Q₁ 0.0089$med 0.0090$Q₃ 0.0090$max 0.0092$μ
SKEWNESS · G₁0.628right-skewed
−3−10+1+3
EXCESS KURTOSIS · G₂-0.052mesokurtic · normal-like
−30+2+4+6
μ ↔ median≈ equal · symmetric|μ−med| / σ = 0.01
σ × 1.349 ↔ IQRconsistent with normalratio = 1.02
range ↔ σwide tails (range > 4σ)range / σ = 4.21
μ = mean · σ = standard deviation · CV = coefficient of variation. Skew (G₁): >0 right-skewed. Kurt (G₂, excess): >0 leptokurtic. 95% CI = μ ± 1.96·SE.

§5 · Returns analytics (log-returns)

Risk-adjusted performance · log-returns
RETURNS · RISK-ADJUSTEDEXCEPTIONAL EDGE · SR=12.66
μᵣ MEAN / h+0.124843%drift is positive per h · |μ|/σ = 0.135
σᵣ STD / h0.923313%σ²ᵣ = 0.853×10⁻⁴ · CV = 7.40×
σ ANNUALISED86.42%/yrscaled by √8760 (hourly→yearly) · 0.923%/h base
RISK-ADJUSTED PERFORMANCEhigher = better edge per unit risk
SHARPE (annualised)12.66excellent · top-decile
-2-10+1+2+3+4
SORTINO (annualised)16.62strong downside-adjusted
-2-10+1+2+3+4
CALMAR (return / max-DD)100.00exceptional DD control
-20+2+4+6
RETURN-DISTRIBUTION SHAPE|skew| < 0.5 ≈ symmetric · |kurt| < 1 ≈ mesokurtic
SKEWNESS · G₁0.66right-skewed · heavy positive tail
-3-10+1+3
EXCESS KURTOSIS · G₂-0.09mesokurtic · normal-like tails
-30+2+4+6
SORTINO vs SHARPEdownside vol < total vol · favourableSoR / SR = 1.31
CALMAR · DD CONTROLdrawdown control exceptionalCR = 100.00
EXPECTED EDGE+1093.62%/yr driftμ × 8760 = annualised expectation
rₜ = ln(pₜ/pₜ₋₁). σ × √8760 = annualised. Sharpe = μ/σ scaled; Sortino uses downside-only vol; Calmar = annual return / max drawdown.

§6 · Risk metrics

Tail risk + drawdown · downside diagnostics
TAIL & DRAWDOWN RISKHIGH · 95% VaR 1.09%
VaR₉₅ (h)1.090%5% prob of larger adverse h move
VaR₉₉ (h)1.181%1% prob · extreme-tail threshold
ES₉₅ (CVaR)1.158%expected loss given 5% tail event
MAX DRAWDOWN2.26%3h from peak to trough
TAIL-RISK LADDER (h losses)larger negative = worse · markers show severity
0 · no lossVaR₉₅−1.090%VaR₉₉−1.181%ES₉₅−1.158%worst tail ←→ zero loss
MAX DRAWDOWN PROFILEmoderate drawdown · 3h duration
PEAK0.90$
−2.26% drawdown over 3h
0.88$TROUGH
ES / VaR · TAIL THICKNESSthin tails · ES ≈ VaR|ES₉₅| / |VaR₉₅| = 1.06× (normal ≈ 1.25)
VaR₉₉ / VaR₉₅ · CONCENTRATIONuniform tailratio = 1.08× (normal ≈ 1.41)
DRAWDOWN · CAPITAL DURATIONmoderate drawdownrecovery needed: +2.31% (compounding)
VaR = quantile loss · ES (CVaR) = expected loss conditional on tail · DD = peak-to-trough decline. Under normality ES₉₅/VaR₉₅ ≈ 1.25; ratio > 1.5 ⇒ fat-tail regime.

§7 · Technicals

RSI(14)
59.8 · neutral
Bollinger %B
0.925 · within band
Bollinger upper
$0.0092
Bollinger MA
$0.0090
Bollinger lower
$0.0088

§8 · Time-series structure

Regime & autocorrelation diagnostics
TIME-SERIES STRUCTUREREGIME: MEAN-REVERTING · ρ(1) -0.42 + ADF rejected
ρ(1) AUTOCORR-0.423negative · reversal
ρ(2) AUTOCORR+0.013lag-2 not significant
H · HURST EXPONENT0.954strongly persistent
OLS TREND · t-STAT+4.988significant @ α=0.05
HURST EXPONENT [0, 1]strongly persistent · H = 0.954
H = 0.954STRONGLY PERSISTENT
0
anti-persistent0.45
mean-reverting0.5
random walk0.55
persistent1
strongly trending
AUTOCORRELATION FUNCTION · ρ(k) for k=1..51 SIGNIFICANT LAG · k=1
k=1 ★-0.423k=2+0.013k=3-0.064k=4+0.171k=5-0.2820+1−1+0.41−0.41+ momentum (ρ > +0.41)− reversal (ρ < −0.41)noise (within band)±2/√n threshold
OLS TREND · t-STAT · [-5, +5]SIGNIFICANT @ 1% (|t|=4.99)
−5 reject−1.960 retain H₀+1.96+5 reject
REGIME CLASSIFICATIONMEAN-REVERTING · ρ(1) -0.42 + ADF rejectedfrom Hurst + ρ(1) joint diagnosis
PREDICTABILITY · score 1.00very high · strong structure|ρ(1)| + 2·|H − 0.5| heuristic
TREND SIGNIFICANCESIGNIFICANT @ 1% (|t|=4.99)α=0.05 critical |t|=1.96 · α=0.01 |t|=2.58
ρ(k) = lag-k sample autocorrelation · H = R/S Hurst exponent · t = OLS-trend t-statistic. Significance bands at ±2/√n approximate the 95% white-noise envelope. α=0.05 critical |t|=1.96; α=0.01 |t|=2.58.

§9 · Microstructure

24h volume (USD)
$165.06k
Open interest (USD)
$215.39k
Vol / OI (turnover)
0.77x
1h funding
-0.006677%
Funding (annualised)
-58.49%/yr

§10 · Position sizing

Continuous Kelly (μ/σ²)
10.000× leverage · optimal log-utility leverage
Half-Kelly
5.000× · industry-standard conservative
Quarter-Kelly
2.500×

§11 · Hourly return heatmap

24-hour signed Δln-r grid · green = up · red = down
HOURLY RETURN HEATMAP · n=24 bars · best 2.29% · worst -1.20% · typical |Δ| 0.73%MILD BULLISH +3.00%BEST+2.29%12hWORST-1.20%13hTYPICAL |Δ|0.73%mean absoluteCUMULATIVE+3.00%Σ signed ΔSTREAK↗ 1up-runASIA · 00-08 UTCμ +0.11% · Σ +0.89%EUROPE · 08-16 UTCμ +0.45% · Σ +3.61%US · 16-24 UTCμ -0.19% · Σ -1.50%CUMULATIVE Δ PATH · final +3.00%+3.74%-0.70%1.59% · 15h1.59% · 15h1.59%15h-1.11% · 16h-1.11% · 16h-1.11%16h-0.46% · 17h-0.46% · 17h-0.46%17h-0.71% · 18h-0.71% · 18h-0.71%18h1.14% · 19h1.14% · 19h1.14%19h-0.79% · 20h-0.79% · 20h-0.79%20h0.72% · 21h0.72% · 21h0.72%21h-0.15% · 22h-0.15% · 22h-0.15%22h-0.13% · 23h-0.13% · 23h-0.13%23h0.10% · 00h0.10% · 00h0.10%00h1.69% · 01h1.69% · 01h1.69%01h-0.70% · 02h-0.70% · 02h-0.70%02h0.64% · 03h0.64% · 03h0.64%03h-0.42% · 04h-0.42% · 04h-0.42%04h0.21% · 05h0.21% · 05h0.21%05h-0.54% · 06h-0.54% · 06h-0.54%06h-0.10% · 07h-0.10% · 07h-0.10%07h0.08% · 08h0.08% · 08h0.08%08h0.66% · 09h0.66% · 09h0.66%09h-0.95% · 10h-0.95% · 10h-0.95%10h0.68% · 11h0.68% · 11h0.68%11h2.29% · 12h2.29% · 12h2.29%12h★ BEST-1.20% · 13h-1.20% · 13h-1.20%13h▼ WORST0.46% · 14h0.46% · 14h0.46%14hTIME PATTERNEurope-led (+3.61%)RUNSup max 2 · down max 3BREADTH50% up · 50% down
12 up bars · 12 down · best 2.29% · worst -1.20% · typical |Δ| 0.731%

§12 · Equity curve & underwater drawdown

Cumulative compounded return + running peak-to-trough
EQUITY & DRAWDOWN ANALYSIS · n=25 barsPROFITABLE +2.94%FINAL+2.94%MAX DD-2.27%RECOVERYONGOING · 9 barsMAX RUN-UP+3.71%UNDERWATER21/25 (84%)STREAK↗ 1EQUITY CURVE · end 1.0294 · peak 1.0371 · range [0.9928, 1.0371]1.03710.9928break-even = 1★ PEAK 1.0371UNDERWATER DRAWDOWN · max -2.27% · moderate0%-2.27%▼ TROUGH -2.27%TOP DRAWDOWN PERIODS · 3 total#1 -2.27%bar 3-11 · 9 bars · recovered#2 -1.20%bar 24-25 · 2 bars · ONGOING#3 -1.13%bar 13-22 · 10 bars · recoveredDD SEVERITYmoderate (max -2.27%)RECOVERYongoing · 23 barsTIME UNDER WATER84% of session · 21/25 bars
final equity 1.0294 (2.94%) · max DD -2.27% · time-under-water 21/25 bars

§13 · Rolling-window statistics (w = 6 bars)

Rolling annualised Sharpe ratio · green positive · red negative
n=19 · +11 / −8 (58% positive) · μ=8.43 · σ=19.46MIXED EDGELAST 23.85 (+0.79σ vs μ)38.2619.130.00-19.13-38.26μ = 8.43-4.83-4.83-20.81-20.81-4.84-4.841.591.5920.2820.2826.2026.2028.5128.5127.3327.3321.3421.3428.0728.0715.1215.12-27.93-27.93-4.79-4.79-4.33-4.33-17.76-17.76-4.28-4.2838.2638.2619.1419.1423.8523.85v > 0 · positivev < 0 · negativeμ mean lineμ ± σ bandlatest bar (outlined)
latest 23.850 · range [-27.93, 38.26] · μ 8.428 · positive Sharpe = excess-return-per-risk earned by buying-and-holding through this window
Rolling annualised volatility (%)
n=19 · μ=77.2655 · σ=23.1400 · range [40.7073, 119.0642] · R²=0.003▲ RISING +12.50%σ EXTREME 29.95%LAST 118.9358119.064299.475079.885860.296540.7073μ = 77.2655max 119.0642min 40.7073dataMA(3)OLS R²=0.00μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
latest 118.94% · range [40.71%, 119.06%] · μ 77.27% · σ̂ scaled to annualised (×√8760)
Rolling lag-1 autocorrelation ρ(1)
n=19 · +0 / −19 (0% positive) · μ=-0.463 · σ=0.197MEAN-REVERSIONLAST -0.419 (+0.22σ vs μ)0.7960.3980.000-0.398-0.796μ = -0.463-0.424-0.424-0.395-0.395-0.644-0.644-0.796-0.796-0.652-0.652-0.184-0.184-0.443-0.443-0.504-0.504-0.569-0.569-0.608-0.608-0.502-0.502-0.704-0.704-0.473-0.473-0.118-0.118-0.396-0.396-0.561-0.561-0.011-0.011-0.392-0.392-0.419-0.419v > 0 · positivev < 0 · negativeμ mean lineμ ± σ bandlatest bar (outlined)
latest -0.419 · |ρ| > 0.3 ⇒ regime with persistence (ρ > 0) or reversal (ρ < 0) · |ρ| ≤ 0.1 = consistent with random walk

§14 · Hypothesis tests (α = 0.05)

Formal inference at 5% significance
1 of 6 REJECT · mixed evidence1 reject·5 pass·α = 0.05
𝒩

Jarque-Bera

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Δln-r ~ Normal(μ, σ²)

STATISTIC
1.7254
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.4220
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainednormality not rejected
ρ

Ljung-Box(h=5)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: No serial autocorrelation up to lag 5

STATISTIC
8.5097
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.1291
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedconsistent with white noise
Ψ

Dickey-Fuller (τ_μ)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: p has a unit root (non-stationary)

STATISTIC
-2.0427
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.2780
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedrandom-walk behaviour (crit ≈ -2.86)
±

Wald-Wolfowitz runs

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Sign sequence of Δ is random

STATISTIC
1.6697
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.0950
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedsigns appear random (17 runs)
χ

KPSS (μ stationarity)

REJECT H₀*

H₀: p IS level-stationary

STATISTIC
0.6723
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.0161
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p < α · rejection zonenon-stationary (crit 0.463)
χ

Variance ratio q=3

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Δln-r is a random walk · VR = 1

STATISTIC
-1.8892
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.0589
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedVR 0.425 ≈ 1 (RW behaviour)
Each row states an explicit null H₀, the test statistic, an approximated p-value, and the decision. REJECT means evidence against H₀. KPSS complements ADF (rejecting both ⇒ ambiguous; rejecting one ⇒ clean verdict).

§15 · Spectral analysis (DFT periodogram)

Power spectrum of Δln-r · ‖X̂(k)‖²/n
n=12 bins · noise floor μ=9.25e-5 · top T=3.43h (24.3%) · top-3 cover 59.4%2 SIGNIFICANT CYCLEScumulative energy ↗ (2 bins above 2× noise)2.7e-42.0e-41.3e-46.7e-50.0e+0μ noise floor2× noise (significance)period 24.0 · power 2.32e-6 · 0.2% energyperiod 24.0 · power 2.32e-6 · 0.2% energyperiod 12.0 · power 7.82e-5 · 7.0% energyperiod 12.0 · power 7.82e-5 · 7.0% energyperiod 8.0 · power 6.97e-6 · 0.6% energyperiod 8.0 · power 6.97e-6 · 0.6% energyperiod 6.0 · power 2.68e-5 · 2.4% energyperiod 6.0 · power 2.68e-5 · 2.4% energyperiod 4.8 · power 2.09e-5 · 1.9% energyperiod 4.8 · power 2.09e-5 · 1.9% energyperiod 4.0 · power 5.13e-5 · 4.6% energyperiod 4.0 · power 5.13e-5 · 4.6% energyperiod 3.4 · power 2.69e-4 · 24.3% energyperiod 3.4 · power 2.69e-4 · 24.3% energyperiod 3.0 · power 1.32e-4 · 11.9% energyperiod 3.0 · power 1.32e-4 · 11.9% energyperiod 2.7 · power 1.14e-4 · 10.3% energyperiod 2.7 · power 1.14e-4 · 10.3% energyperiod 2.4 · power 6.33e-5 · 5.7% energyperiod 2.4 · power 6.33e-5 · 5.7% energyperiod 2.2 · power 8.64e-5 · 7.8% energyperiod 2.2 · power 8.64e-5 · 7.8% energyperiod 2.0 · power 2.58e-4 · 23.3% energyperiod 2.0 · power 2.58e-4 · 23.3% energy50% by T=3.0h#1 dominantT=3.43h#2T=2.00h#3T=3.00hT=2hT=3hT=4hT=6hT=8hT=12hT=16hT=24h← shorter cycle (high freq · Nyquist=½) · period T (bars per cycle) · longer cycle (low freq · 1/n) →#1 dominant#2 peak#3 peak> 2× noisenoiseμ floor2μ sig.cum energy
dominant period ≈ 3.43h (freq 0.292) · concentrates 24.3% of total energy · Σ|X̂|²/n = 1.109e-3

▸ Depth section using sovereign-store price series (5000 bars · effective 5257847 bars/year) — annualisation reflects native polling cadence, not upstream timeframes.

§16 · NOSTRADAMUS continuous quant — perp leverage & bootstrap MC

Continuous-price extension of the prediction-market quant module. Kelly growth on observed returns (Merton μ/σ² parametric vs argmax empirical), Monte-Carlo equity fan bootstrapped from the historical return distribution at quarter-Kelly leverage, and an annualized return decomposition. Sweep parameters in the simulator.

§17 · Continuous Kelly

Continuous-Kelly growth · g(f) = E[ln(1 + f·r)]
f★ empirical 6.67× · g(f★) 0.001%/barparametric μ/σ² 6.68× · μ 0.000% · σ 0.05%
μ per barmean
0.000%
σ per barvol
0.05%
Empirical f★argmax g(f)
6.67×
from observed distribution
Parametric f★μ/σ²
6.68×
Merton continuous-time
Half-Kelly½ f★
3.33×
~⅔ of full growth, half the variance
Quarter-Kelly¼ f★
1.67×
industry default — survives model error
0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.0×1.6×3.2×4.8×6.4×8.0×f★ empμ/σ²leverage fraction fexpected log-growth per bar
g(f) empiricalf★ argmaxparametric f★
Maximum expected log-growth from leveraging the historical return distribution. Empirical f★ argmaxes the sample expectation; parametric f★ = μ/σ² is Merton's continuous-time optimum.

§18 · MC equity fan

Bootstrapped equity fan at 1.67× leverage
Median CAGR/bar 0.000% · annualized Sharpe 8.77400 paths × 720 bars · leverage 1.67× · bootstrap from 4999 observed returns
Sharpe / barμ/σ
0.004
annualized 8.77
μ per barafter L
0.000%
σ per barafter L
0.08%
VaR 95%5%
0.09%
per-bar worst-case
CVaR 95%ES
0.20%
mean tail loss
Max DD (median)MDD
-0.3%
0.92×0.95×0.99×1.02×1.06×1.10×0120240360480600720startbar #equity multiple
median25/75 band5/95 band
Median path with 25/75 and 5/95 percentile bands across 400 simulated careers. Bars resample with replacement from the observed return distribution — preserves fat tails the parametric model misses.

§19 · Annualized breakdown

Annualized return components
APR 858% · APY 1000% · Sharpe 7.57σ ann 113% · Sortino 4.63 · n 4999 · ⚠ capped (n=4999 too small to support 8760-bar projection)
0%240%480%720%960%1200%857.7%APR (simple)1000.0%APY (compound)113.3%Ann. vol σ757.0%Sharpe (ann)462.6%Sortino (ann)
Simple APR vs compounded APY · annualized volatility · risk-adjusted Sharpe and Sortino. All scaled by √(periods/yr).

§20 · GARCH(1,1) volatility band

GARCH(1,1) · conditional vol envelope (±2σ)
GARCH persistence α+β = 0.980· σ̂ₜ = 1.002% · long-run σ = 2.236%
0.0090.0090.0090.0090.0100.010t-4999t-4166t-3333t-2500t-1666t-833t-0

Persistence near 1 ⇒ vol clusters strongly (slow mean reversion). Long-run σ is the unconditional target the conditional vol orbits. The ±2σ band reflects time-varying scale, unlike a flat-vol band.

Time-varying volatility band fitted to the price series. Persistence α+β > 0.98 means vol shocks decay slowly — recent moves stay relevant.

§∞ · Provenance & attestation

Upstream
api.hyperliquid.xyz
Snapshot fetched
2026-06-14 14:31:30 UTC
Snapshot age
591ms
History points
25 hourly closes
Page rendered
2026-06-14 14:31:31 UTC
Storage policy
no persistence — fetched on every request
SHA-256 attestation
da1dd36d6e1ae8f31a50a004dcfa8d50a367c00bd59f9699df63e5a8adb6aa2e · deterministic hash of the source snapshot — proves this page was rendered from this exact data
Open data licence
CC0 / public domain · free to mirror, syndicate, analyse

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Also see: /arb opportunities · RSS feed

Market depth

▸ live order book · Hyperliquid perp
Depth within 1bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Depth within 5bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Depth within 10bp
$3.06K
bid $1.57K · ask $1.49K
Depth within 50bp
$64.12K
bid $26.41K · ask $37.70K
Mid price
0.009114
(best bid + best ask) / 2
Spread
16.5bp
(bestAsk − bestBid) / mid
Imbalance (whole book)
-0.081
ask-heavy
Imbalance (top-5)
+0.099
bid-heavy top-of-book

Slippage scenarios

▸ live book walk · Hyperliquid perp

Simulating a market order at three notionals against the live book. Slippage = avg execution price vs. mid, in basis points. Worst fill = price of the deepest level touched. Live JSON: /api/asset/hl-BIGTIME/slippage?size=10000&side=buy

SideNotionalAvg fillSlippageWorst fillLevelsStatus
BUY$1.00K0.0091218.23bp0.0091211FILLED
BUY$10.00K0.00913219.98bp0.0091418FILLED
BUY$100.00K0.00915040.00bp0.00920820PARTIAL
SELL$1.00K0.0091068.23bp0.0091061FILLED
SELL$10.00K0.00909420.97bp0.0090817FILLED
SELL$100.00K0.009000124.89bp0.00872820PARTIAL

Funding carry

▸ SHORTS PAY · longs receive
Hourly funding
-6.677e-5
-0.00668% / hr
Annualised APR
-58.528%
hourly · 24 · 365.25
Long: days to 1% carry
6.2d
longs receive
Short: days to 1% carry
6.2d
shorts pay
SideDirectionAnnualised carryDays → 1%Days → 10%
LONGRECEIVE58.528%6.2d62.4d
SHORTPAY-58.528%6.2d62.4d

/api/asset/hl-BIGTIME/carry · same metrics, JSON

Volume profile

▸ real volume · Hyperliquid candlesstep $ 1 · 25 records
Price binBarsVolumeDistribution
$0.000000–$1.0000★25$18.29M

★ POC = Point of Control (highest-volume bin). Live JSON: /api/asset/hl-BIGTIME/volprofile?priceStep=1

Order flow

▸ BID-LEAN · +0.068 · Hyperliquid candles
Bars (buy / sell)
12 / 12
1 unclassified
Buy weight
$9.70M
real volume
Sell weight
$8.46M
real volume
Net delta
$1.24M
buyers net
Imbalance
6.85%
(buy − sell) / (buy + sell)
Toxicity (VPIN)
6.8%
two-sided / balanced
Impact (|Δp|/vol)
—
needs real volume

Sparkline = cumulative delta over the 25-record window./api/asset/hl-BIGTIME/flow?rollingWindow=30

Cascade clusters

▸ DOWN · 6 found · deepest 2.26% · Hyperliquid candles

Price-only proxy for forced-unwind clusters. No exchange liquidation feed is wired — read each row as a candidate event, not a confirmed liquidation.

#WindowDurationPeak → TroughDrawdownBars
#12026-06-13 16:00:00Z2.0h0.009019→0.0088152.262%3
#22026-06-14 13:00:00Z1.0h0.009215→0.0091051.194%2
#32026-06-14 10:00:00Z0ms0.009030→0.0089450.941%1

/api/asset/hl-BIGTIME/cascades?windowMs=10800000&minDrawdownPct=0.005 · full list + parameters in JSON

Risk metrics

▸ sovereign store · 5,000 barsperiods/year ≈ 5.26M
Realized vol (annualised)
113.31%
σ per bar = 0.000494
Mean return (annualised)
857.75%
μ per bar = 0.000002
Sharpe (rf=0)
7.57
annualised; risk-free assumed zero
Max drawdown
4.66%
peak 0.01 → trough 0.01 over 211 bars

/api/asset/hl-BIGTIME/risk · same metrics, JSON