HYPERLIQUID · PERPETUAL FUTURES

APEX

APEX-USD perpetual · 24/7 trading on Hyperliquid

▸ Advanced metrics · M2M bundle

hyperliquid · perp-apex · fresh · feed 1s old
24h sparkline · 60 pts▲ 14.53%
realized vol (ann.)
215.70%
max drawdown
4.02%
sharpe
25.86
ulcer index
2.49%
RMS drawdown
pain index
2.15%
mean drawdown
mod. VaR 95%
0.00%
Cornish-Fisher
martin ratio
2237.35
ret / ulcer
CDaR 95%
3.87%
cond. drawdown
gain/pain
1.07
Σgain / Σ|loss|
sterling
1441.75
ret / CDaR
omega (θ=0)
1.07
upside/downside
roll spread
0.0 bps
implied (price-only)
bars used
2000
store
spread
—
24h Δ
14.53%
flow lean
—
carry
longs_pay
10.95%
signalNEUTRALconfidence 32%
  • 24h change +14.53%
  • funding: longs pay — perp shorts get paid to wait
  • mark cheap vs HL oracle by 6.1bps — long bias
Same bundle via M2M API: /api/m2m/hl-APEX/bundle · venue execution: hyperliquid →
LIVEPOLL0SRCFRESH1.1s⏱--:--:-- UTC8NEXT8.0sUP0s--:--HIST0/30
▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC FRESH·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC FRESH·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·
MARK · live
$0.293
24h Δ · live
14.53%
24h vol · live
$0.2M
APEX · live 24h price
n=25 · μ=0.2689 · σ=0.0116 · range [0.2565, 0.2940] · R²=0.874▲ RISING +14.19%σ NORMAL 4.30%LAST 0.29400.29400.28460.27520.26590.2565μ = 0.2689max 0.2940min 0.2565dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.87μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxminlive endpoint
25 closes · last $0.29
Funding direction · live
Long fee 48.1%Short fee 51.9%SHORT FEE51.9%
Σ = 0.0%
Σ-sides total = 0.00% (100.00pp arb gap)
H(p) entropy = 0.999 / 1.00 bits (100%) · max uncertainty (~50/50)
Long fee
48.1%▬ +0.00pp
Short fee
51.9%▬ +0.00pp
1h funding 0.001250% · longs pay
Hourly contract volume · live
n=25 · Σ=625,761 · μ=25030.4 · σ=20255.4 · CV=0.81BURSTYcumulative energy ↗ · 50% by h=19023,56247,12370,68594,246μ = 2503094,24650%h1h5h9h13h17h21h25#1 peak#2-3> μactivequietμ linecum energy
peak 94246 contracts
Live numerics · pulse on poll
LIVE NUMERICS9 metrics·POLL 0
⏱snapshot age
1.1s
$mark $
$0.2935
$mid $
$0.2935
◉prev-day close
$0.2562
Δ24h Δ %
+14.534%
$24h vol $
$167.77k
◐open interest $
$1.38M
%funding (1h)
0.001250%
%funding (yr)
+10.95%/yr

§1 · 24h time-series

Close price · hourly
n=25 · μ=0.2689 · σ=0.0116 · range [0.2565, 0.2940] · R²=0.874▲ RISING +14.19%σ NORMAL 4.30%LAST 0.29400.29400.28460.27520.26590.2565μ = 0.2689max 0.2940min 0.2565dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.87μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
mark $0.2935 · 24h 14.53% · range $[0.2565, 0.2940]
OHLC candles · hourly
n=25 · up 20 · down 5 (80% up) · range [0.2560, 0.2971] · σ=0.0116 · CV=0.04 · bodyµ=54%STRONG BULLISH +14.83%CLOSE 0.2940 vs OPEN 0.2560 (+14.83%)&#9650; CLOSE 0.29400.29710.28680.27650.26620.2560μ close = 0.2689O0.256 H0.258 L0.256 C0.257 (+0.56%)O0.256 H0.258 L0.256 C0.257 (+0.56%)O0.257 H0.259 L0.257 C0.258 (+0.47%)O0.257 H0.259 L0.257 C0.258 (+0.47%)O0.258 H0.259 L0.256 C0.257 (-0.45%)O0.258 H0.259 L0.256 C0.257 (-0.45%)O0.257 H0.258 L0.256 C0.256 (-0.21%)O0.257 H0.258 L0.256 C0.256 (-0.21%)O0.256 H0.258 L0.256 C0.257 (+0.21%)O0.256 H0.258 L0.256 C0.257 (+0.21%)O0.257 H0.258 L0.257 C0.258 (+0.12%)O0.257 H0.258 L0.257 C0.258 (+0.12%)O0.258 H0.259 L0.258 C0.259 (+0.35%)O0.258 H0.259 L0.258 C0.259 (+0.35%)O0.259 H0.261 L0.258 C0.261 (+0.92%)O0.259 H0.261 L0.258 C0.261 (+0.92%)O0.260 H0.263 L0.260 C0.262 (+0.49%)O0.260 H0.263 L0.260 C0.262 (+0.49%)O0.262 H0.263 L0.262 C0.262 (+0.28%)O0.262 H0.263 L0.262 C0.262 (+0.28%)O0.262 H0.263 L0.262 C0.263 (+0.09%)O0.262 H0.263 L0.262 C0.263 (+0.09%)O0.263 H0.267 L0.262 C0.267 (+1.58%)O0.263 H0.267 L0.262 C0.267 (+1.58%)O0.267 H0.269 L0.266 C0.267 (+0.07%)O0.267 H0.269 L0.266 C0.267 (+0.07%)O0.267 H0.270 L0.266 C0.270 (+1.02%)O0.267 H0.270 L0.266 C0.270 (+1.02%)O0.269 H0.270 L0.265 C0.267 (-1.00%)O0.269 H0.270 L0.265 C0.267 (-1.00%)O0.266 H0.269 L0.266 C0.269 (+0.79%)O0.266 H0.269 L0.266 C0.269 (+0.79%)O0.269 H0.270 L0.268 C0.269 (+0.16%)O0.269 H0.270 L0.268 C0.269 (+0.16%)O0.269 H0.270 L0.268 C0.270 (+0.33%)O0.269 H0.270 L0.268 C0.270 (+0.33%)O0.270 H0.277 L0.269 C0.276 (+2.30%)O0.270 H0.277 L0.269 C0.276 (+2.30%)O0.276 H0.281 L0.274 C0.281 (+1.74%)O0.276 H0.281 L0.274 C0.281 (+1.74%)O0.280 H0.289 L0.280 C0.287 (+2.60%)O0.280 H0.289 L0.280 C0.287 (+2.60%)O0.288 H0.290 L0.285 C0.287 (-0.14%)O0.288 H0.290 L0.285 C0.287 (-0.14%)O0.286 H0.286 L0.279 C0.280 (-2.27%)O0.286 H0.286 L0.279 C0.280 (-2.27%)3.7%O0.280 H0.297 L0.279 C0.290 (+3.69%)O0.280 H0.297 L0.279 C0.290 (+3.69%)O0.290 H0.295 L0.290 C0.294 (+1.30%)O0.290 H0.295 L0.290 C0.294 (+1.30%)#1#5#9#13#17#21#25up bar (C≥O)down bar (C<O)MA(5) closeμ closedoji (~no body)biggest body
25 bars
Hourly volume (base units)
n=25 · Σ=625,761 · μ=25030.4 · σ=20255.4 · CV=0.81BURSTYcumulative energy &nearr; · 50% by h=19023,56247,12370,68594,246μ = 2503023,678 · 25.1% peak23,678 · 25.1% peak10,750 · 11.4% peak10,750 · 11.4% peak30,371 · 32.2% peak30,371 · 32.2% peak12,711 · 13.5% peak12,711 · 13.5% peak14,338 · 15.2% peak14,338 · 15.2% peak9,658 · 10.2% peak9,658 · 10.2% peak10,702 · 11.4% peak10,702 · 11.4% peak8,616 · 9.1% peak8,616 · 9.1% peak11,813 · 12.5% peak11,813 · 12.5% peak20,708 · 22.0% peak20,708 · 22.0% peak27,137 · 28.8% peak27,137 · 28.8% peak18,597 · 19.7% peak18,597 · 19.7% peak21,659 · 23.0% peak21,659 · 23.0% peak18,657 · 19.8% peak18,657 · 19.8% peak16,935 · 18.0% peak16,935 · 18.0% peak22,193 · 23.5% peak22,193 · 23.5% peak16,126 · 17.1% peak16,126 · 17.1% peak15,803 · 16.8% peak15,803 · 16.8% peak24,253 · 25.7% peak24,253 · 25.7% peak17,319 · 18.4% peak17,319 · 18.4% peak24,506 · 26.0% peak24,506 · 26.0% peak66,772 · 70.8% peak66,772 · 70.8% peak63,916 · 67.8% peak63,916 · 67.8% peak94,24694,246 · 100.0% peak94,246 · 100.0% peak24,297 · 25.8% peak24,297 · 25.8% peak50%#1#5#9#13#17#21#25#1 peak#2-3> μactivequietμ linecum energy
Σ vol 625761 · peak 94246 · CV 0.81

§2 · Returns distribution (log-returns)

Histogram of rₜ = ln(pₜ/pₜ₋₁)
n=24 · 12 bins · μ=0.0058 · σ=0.0119 · skew=0.08 (symmetric) · kurt=0.71 (mesokurtic)108530 1-237.05bpbin -237.05bp · n=1 · 10.0% peakbin -237.05bp · n=1 · 10.0% peak-184.51bp 1-131.97bpbin -131.97bp · n=1 · 10.0% peakbin -131.97bp · n=1 · 10.0% peak-79.43bp 3-26.89bpbin -26.89bp · n=3 · 30.0% peakbin -26.89bp · n=3 · 30.0% peak 1025.65bpbin 25.65bp · n=10 · 100.0% peakbin 25.65bp · n=10 · 100.0% peak 278.18bpbin 78.18bp · n=2 · 20.0% peakbin 78.18bp · n=2 · 20.0% peak 2130.72bpbin 130.72bp · n=2 · 20.0% peakbin 130.72bp · n=2 · 20.0% peak 2183.26bpbin 183.26bp · n=2 · 20.0% peakbin 183.26bp · n=2 · 20.0% peak 2235.80bpbin 235.80bp · n=2 · 20.0% peakbin 235.80bp · n=2 · 20.0% peak288.34bp 1340.88bpbin 340.88bp · n=1 · 10.0% peakbin 340.88bp · n=1 · 10.0% peakμΔ < 0 · loss barsΔ ≈ 0 · flatΔ > 0 · gain barsN(μ,σ²) referenceμ line · ±σ band shaded
n=24 · positive 19 · negative 5
Q-Q plot · standardised rₜ vs N(0,1)
n=24 · skew=0.12 · kurt=1.45 · near 16 / mid 8 / far 0 · OLS slope=0.98 intercept=-0.00APPROXIMATELY NORMALUPPER TAIL NORMALLOWER TAIL NORMAL-3σ-3σ-2σ-2σ-1σ-1σ+0σ+0σ+1σ+1σ+2σ+2σ+3σ+3σsample ↓marginal: sample bars + theoretical N(0,1) curve →theoretical Φ⁻¹(p) →↑ sample z-quantile|Δ| < 0.3σ · on the line|Δ| < 1σ · moderate|Δ| ≥ 1σ · outliery = x refOLS fit

§3 · Spot quote

Mark price
$0.2935
Mid price
$0.2935
24h change
+14.53%
Mark–mid spread
0.34 bps
Prev-day close
$0.2562

§4 · Sample moments (prices)

Descriptive statistics · 5-number summary · shape diagnostics
SAMPLE MOMENTS · N=25RIGHT-SKEWED (G₁=0.76)
μ MEAN0.2689$95% CI: [0.2644$, 0.2734$]
σ STD DEV0.0116$σ² = 1.340×10⁻⁴ · CV = 4.30%
med MEDIAN0.2667$Q₁ 0.2586$ · Q₃ 0.2759$
FIVE-NUMBER SUMMARY · BOX PLOTrange 0.0375$ · IQR 0.0173$ (1.349σ→0.0156$)
min 0.2565$Q₁ 0.2586$med 0.2667$Q₃ 0.2759$max 0.2940$μ
SKEWNESS · G₁0.764right-skewed
−3−10+1+3
EXCESS KURTOSIS · G₂-0.744mesokurtic · normal-like
−30+2+4+6
μ ↔ medianμ > med · right-tailed|μ−med| / σ = 0.19
σ × 1.349 ↔ IQRconsistent with normalratio = 0.90
range ↔ σconcentrated (range < 4σ)range / σ = 3.24
μ = mean · σ = standard deviation · CV = coefficient of variation. Skew (G₁): >0 right-skewed. Kurt (G₂, excess): >0 leptokurtic. 95% CI = μ ± 1.96·SE.

§5 · Returns analytics (log-returns)

Risk-adjusted performance · log-returns
RETURNS · RISK-ADJUSTEDEXCEPTIONAL EDGE · SR=41.85
μᵣ MEAN / h+0.552819%drift is positive per h · |μ|/σ = 0.447
σᵣ STD / h1.236253%σ²ᵣ = 1.528×10⁻⁴ · CV = 2.24×
σ ANNUALISED115.71%/yrscaled by √8760 (hourly→yearly) · 1.236%/h base
RISK-ADJUSTED PERFORMANCEhigher = better edge per unit risk
SHARPE (annualised)41.85excellent · top-decile
-2-10+1+2+3+4
SORTINO (annualised)39.78strong downside-adjusted
-2-10+1+2+3+4
CALMAR (return / max-DD)100.00exceptional DD control
-20+2+4+6
RETURN-DISTRIBUTION SHAPE|skew| < 0.5 ≈ symmetric · |kurt| < 1 ≈ mesokurtic
SKEWNESS · G₁0.12approximately symmetric
-3-10+1+3
EXCESS KURTOSIS · G₂2.10leptokurtic · fat tails
-30+2+4+6
SORTINO vs SHARPEdownside ≈ total vol · symmetricSoR / SR = 0.95
CALMAR · DD CONTROLdrawdown control exceptionalCR = 100.00
EXPECTED EDGE+4842.69%/yr driftμ × 8760 = annualised expectation
rₜ = ln(pₜ/pₜ₋₁). σ × √8760 = annualised. Sharpe = μ/σ scaled; Sortino uses downside-only vol; Calmar = annual return / max drawdown.

§6 · Risk metrics

Tail risk + drawdown · downside diagnostics
TAIL & DRAWDOWN RISKHIGH · 95% VaR 1.01%
VaR₉₅ (h)1.014%5% prob of larger adverse h move
VaR₉₉ (h)2.281%1% prob · extreme-tail threshold
ES₉₅ (CVaR)1.867%expected loss given 5% tail event
MAX DRAWDOWN2.60%1h from peak to trough
TAIL-RISK LADDER (h losses)larger negative = worse · markers show severity
0 · no lossVaR₉₅−1.014%VaR₉₉−2.281%ES₉₅−1.867%worst tail ←→ zero loss
MAX DRAWDOWN PROFILEmoderate drawdown · 1h duration
PEAK28.74$
−2.60% drawdown over 1h
28.00$TROUGH
ES / VaR · TAIL THICKNESSmoderate fat tail|ES₉₅| / |VaR₉₅| = 1.84× (normal ≈ 1.25)
VaR₉₉ / VaR₉₅ · CONCENTRATIONextreme-tail dominated · severe outliersratio = 2.25× (normal ≈ 1.41)
DRAWDOWN · CAPITAL DURATIONmoderate drawdownrecovery needed: +2.67% (compounding)
VaR = quantile loss · ES (CVaR) = expected loss conditional on tail · DD = peak-to-trough decline. Under normality ES₉₅/VaR₉₅ ≈ 1.25; ratio > 1.5 ⇒ fat-tail regime.

§7 · Technicals

RSI(14)
79.4 · overbought
Bollinger %B
0.997 · within band
Bollinger upper
$0.2941
Bollinger MA
$0.2718
Bollinger lower
$0.2495

§8 · Time-series structure

Regime & autocorrelation diagnostics
TIME-SERIES STRUCTUREREGIME: MEAN-REVERTING · ADF rejects unit root
ρ(1) AUTOCORR-0.131within white-noise band
ρ(2) AUTOCORR-0.142lag-2 not significant
H · HURST EXPONENT0.977strongly persistent
OLS TREND · t-STAT+12.640significant @ α=0.05
HURST EXPONENT [0, 1]strongly persistent · H = 0.977
H = 0.977STRONGLY PERSISTENT
0
anti-persistent0.45
mean-reverting0.5
random walk0.55
persistent1
strongly trending
AUTOCORRELATION FUNCTION · ρ(k) for k=1..5WHITE NOISE · no significant lags
k=1-0.131k=2-0.142k=3-0.036k=4-0.059k=5+0.1720+1−1+0.41−0.41+ momentum (ρ > +0.41)− reversal (ρ < −0.41)noise (within band)±2/√n threshold
OLS TREND · t-STAT · [-5, +5]SIGNIFICANT @ 1% (|t|=12.64)
−5 reject−1.960 retain H₀+1.96+5 reject
REGIME CLASSIFICATIONMEAN-REVERTING · ADF rejects unit rootfrom Hurst + ρ(1) joint diagnosis
PREDICTABILITY · score 1.00very high · strong structure|ρ(1)| + 2·|H − 0.5| heuristic
TREND SIGNIFICANCESIGNIFICANT @ 1% (|t|=12.64)α=0.05 critical |t|=1.96 · α=0.01 |t|=2.58
ρ(k) = lag-k sample autocorrelation · H = R/S Hurst exponent · t = OLS-trend t-statistic. Significance bands at ±2/√n approximate the 95% white-noise envelope. α=0.05 critical |t|=1.96; α=0.01 |t|=2.58.

§9 · Microstructure

24h volume (USD)
$167.77k
Open interest (USD)
$1.38M
Vol / OI (turnover)
0.12x
1h funding
0.001250%
Funding (annualised)
+10.95%/yr

§10 · Position sizing

Continuous Kelly (μ/σ²)
10.000× leverage · optimal log-utility leverage
Half-Kelly
5.000× · industry-standard conservative
Quarter-Kelly
2.500×

§11 · Hourly return heatmap

24-hour signed Δln-r grid · green = up · red = down
HOURLY RETURN HEATMAP · n=24 bars · best 3.67% · worst -2.63% · typical |Δ| 0.93%BULLISH SESSION +13.27%BEST+3.67%13hWORST-2.63%12hTYPICAL |Δ|0.93%mean absoluteCUMULATIVE+13.27%Σ signed ΔSTREAK↗ 2up-runASIA · 00-08 UTCμ +0.35% · Σ +2.79%EUROPE · 08-16 UTCμ +1.11% · Σ +8.92%US · 16-24 UTCμ +0.19% · Σ +1.56%CUMULATIVE Δ PATH · final +13.27%+13.27%-0.39%0.33% · 15h0.33% · 15h0.33%15h-0.53% · 16h-0.53% · 16h-0.53%16h-0.19% · 17h-0.19% · 17h-0.19%17h0.21% · 18h0.21% · 18h0.21%18h0.20% · 19h0.20% · 19h0.20%19h0.41% · 20h0.41% · 20h0.41%20h0.89% · 21h0.89% · 21h0.89%21h0.29% · 22h0.29% · 22h0.29%22h0.27% · 23h0.27% · 23h0.27%23h0.10% · 00h0.10% · 00h0.10%00h1.59% · 01h1.59% · 01h1.59%01h-0.04% · 02h-0.04% · 02h-0.04%02h1.06% · 03h1.06% · 03h1.06%03h-1.10% · 04h-1.10% · 04h-1.10%04h0.74% · 05h0.74% · 05h0.74%05h0.16% · 06h0.16% · 06h0.16%06h0.29% · 07h0.29% · 07h0.29%07h2.23% · 08h2.23% · 08h2.23%08h1.69% · 09h1.69% · 09h1.69%09h2.37% · 10h2.37% · 10h2.37%10h0.05% · 11h0.05% · 11h0.05%11h-2.63% · 12h-2.63% · 12h-2.63%12h▼ WORST3.67% · 13h3.67% · 13h3.67%13h★ BEST1.22% · 14h1.22% · 14h1.22%14hTIME PATTERNEurope-led (+8.92%)RUNSup max 8 · down max 2BREADTH79% up · 21% down
19 up bars · 5 down · best 3.67% · worst -2.63% · typical |Δ| 0.927%

§12 · Equity curve & underwater drawdown

Cumulative compounded return + running peak-to-trough
EQUITY & DRAWDOWN ANALYSIS · n=25 barsPROFITABLE +13.95%FINAL+13.95%MAX DD-2.63%RECOVERYFULLY RECOVEREDMAX RUN-UP+13.95%UNDERWATER9/25 (36%)STREAK↗ 2EQUITY CURVE · end 1.1395 · peak 1.1395 · range [0.9961, 1.1395]1.13950.9961break-even = 1★ PEAK 1.1395UNDERWATER DRAWDOWN · max -2.63% · moderate0%-2.63%▼ TROUGH -2.63%TOP DRAWDOWN PERIODS · 4 total#1 -2.63%bar 23-23 · 1 bars · recovered#2 -1.10%bar 15-17 · 3 bars · recovered#3 -0.71%bar 3-6 · 4 bars · recoveredDD SEVERITYmoderate (max -2.63%)RECOVERYfully recoveredTIME UNDER WATER36% of session · 9/25 bars
final equity 1.1395 (13.95%) · max DD -2.63% · time-under-water 9/25 bars

§13 · Rolling-window statistics (w = 6 bars)

Rolling annualised Sharpe ratio · green positive · red negative
n=19 · +19 / −0 (100% positive) · μ=64.42 · σ=36.00PROFITABLE STRATEGYLAST 45.66 (-0.52σ vs μ)135.0767.540.00-67.54-135.07μ = 64.4218.6118.6131.7031.7080.3680.36135.07135.07120.38120.3899.2899.2878.5978.5979.7579.7531.3931.3938.4738.4739.5539.5522.9822.9847.8147.8152.7352.73119.27119.2797.6897.6833.0333.0351.6551.6545.6645.66v > 0 · positivev < 0 · negativeμ mean lineμ ± σ bandlatest bar (outlined)
latest 45.665 · range [18.61, 135.07] · μ 64.419 · positive Sharpe = excess-return-per-risk earned by buying-and-holding through this window
Rolling annualised volatility (%)
n=19 · μ=87.5151 · σ=55.5311 · range [24.5842, 208.3637] · R²=0.794▲ RISING +508.08%σ EXTREME 63.45%LAST 203.3862208.3637162.4188116.474070.529124.5842μ = 87.5151max 208.3637min 24.5842dataMA(3)OLS R²=0.79μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
latest 203.39% · range [24.58%, 208.36%] · μ 87.52% · σ̂ scaled to annualised (×√8760)
Rolling lag-1 autocorrelation ρ(1)
n=19 · +8 / −11 (42% positive) · μ=-0.166 · σ=0.337CLOSE TO MARTINGALELAST -0.254 (-0.26σ vs μ)0.7370.3680.000-0.368-0.737μ = -0.1660.0420.0420.3460.3460.1600.1600.0110.0110.0220.022-0.248-0.248-0.518-0.518-0.586-0.586-0.468-0.468-0.594-0.594-0.535-0.535-0.737-0.737-0.252-0.2520.1490.1490.3330.333-0.023-0.0230.2110.211-0.211-0.211-0.254-0.254v > 0 · positivev < 0 · negativeμ mean lineμ ± σ bandlatest bar (outlined)
latest -0.254 · |ρ| > 0.3 ⇒ regime with persistence (ρ > 0) or reversal (ρ < 0) · |ρ| ≤ 0.1 = consistent with random walk

§14 · Hypothesis tests (α = 0.05)

Formal inference at 5% significance
1 of 6 REJECT · mixed evidence1 reject·5 pass·α = 0.05
𝒩

Jarque-Bera

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Δln-r ~ Normal(μ, σ²)

STATISTIC
4.4635
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.1073
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainednormality not rejected
ρ

Ljung-Box(h=5)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: No serial autocorrelation up to lag 5

STATISTIC
2.1583
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.8284
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedconsistent with white noise
Ψ

Dickey-Fuller (τ_μ)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: p has a unit root (non-stationary)

STATISTIC
0.6834
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.9990
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedrandom-walk behaviour (crit ≈ -2.86)
±

Wald-Wolfowitz runs

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Sign sequence of Δ is random

STATISTIC
0.0540
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.9569
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedsigns appear random (9 runs)
χ

KPSS (μ stationarity)

REJECT H₀**

H₀: p IS level-stationary

STATISTIC
0.8675
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.0049
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p < α · rejection zonenon-stationary (crit 0.463)
χ

Variance ratio q=3

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Δln-r is a random walk · VR = 1

STATISTIC
-1.2337
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.2173
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedVR 0.625 ≈ 1 (RW behaviour)
Each row states an explicit null H₀, the test statistic, an approximated p-value, and the decision. REJECT means evidence against H₀. KPSS complements ADF (rejecting both ⇒ ambiguous; rejecting one ⇒ clean verdict).

§15 · Spectral analysis (DFT periodogram)

Power spectrum of Δln-r · ‖X̂(k)‖²/n
n=12 bins · noise floor μ=1.57e-4 · top T=6.00h (15.8%) · top-3 cover 46.7%WHITE NOISE · no dominant cyclecumulative energy ↗ (0 bins above 2× noise)3.0e-42.2e-41.5e-47.4e-50.0e+0μ noise floorperiod 24.0 · power 7.20e-5 · 3.8% energyperiod 24.0 · power 7.20e-5 · 3.8% energyperiod 12.0 · power 8.13e-5 · 4.3% energyperiod 12.0 · power 8.13e-5 · 4.3% energyperiod 8.0 · power 4.54e-5 · 2.4% energyperiod 8.0 · power 4.54e-5 · 2.4% energyperiod 6.0 · power 2.98e-4 · 15.8% energyperiod 6.0 · power 2.98e-4 · 15.8% energyperiod 4.8 · power 1.55e-4 · 8.2% energyperiod 4.8 · power 1.55e-4 · 8.2% energyperiod 4.0 · power 2.97e-4 · 15.7% energyperiod 4.0 · power 2.97e-4 · 15.7% energyperiod 3.4 · power 9.10e-5 · 4.8% energyperiod 3.4 · power 9.10e-5 · 4.8% energyperiod 3.0 · power 7.83e-5 · 4.1% energyperiod 3.0 · power 7.83e-5 · 4.1% energyperiod 2.7 · power 2.22e-4 · 11.7% energyperiod 2.7 · power 2.22e-4 · 11.7% energyperiod 2.4 · power 2.87e-4 · 15.2% energyperiod 2.4 · power 2.87e-4 · 15.2% energyperiod 2.2 · power 2.90e-7 · 0.0% energyperiod 2.2 · power 2.90e-7 · 0.0% energyperiod 2.0 · power 2.62e-4 · 13.9% energyperiod 2.0 · power 2.62e-4 · 13.9% energy50% by T=4.0h#1 dominantT=6.00h#2T=4.00h#3T=2.40hT=2hT=3hT=4hT=6hT=8hT=12hT=16hT=24h← shorter cycle (high freq · Nyquist=½) · period T (bars per cycle) · longer cycle (low freq · 1/n) →#1 dominant#2 peak#3 peak> 2× noisenoiseμ floor2μ sig.cum energy
dominant period ≈ 6.00h (freq 0.167) · concentrates 15.8% of total energy · Σ|X̂|²/n = 1.888e-3

▸ Depth section using sovereign-store price series (5000 bars · effective 5257847 bars/year) — annualisation reflects native polling cadence, not upstream timeframes.

§16 · NOSTRADAMUS continuous quant — perp leverage & bootstrap MC

Continuous-price extension of the prediction-market quant module. Kelly growth on observed returns (Merton μ/σ² parametric vs argmax empirical), Monte-Carlo equity fan bootstrapped from the historical return distribution at quarter-Kelly leverage, and an annualized return decomposition. Sweep parameters in the simulator.

§17 · Continuous Kelly

Continuous-Kelly growth · g(f) = E[ln(1 + f·r)]
f★ empirical 8.00× · g(f★) 0.012%/barparametric μ/σ² 31.70× · μ 0.002% · σ 0.07%
μ per barmean
0.002%
σ per barvol
0.07%
Empirical f★argmax g(f)
8.00×
from observed distribution
Parametric f★μ/σ²
31.70×
Merton continuous-time
Half-Kelly½ f★
4.00×
~⅔ of full growth, half the variance
Quarter-Kelly¼ f★
2.00×
industry default — survives model error
0.00%0.00%0.01%0.01%0.01%0.0×1.6×3.2×4.8×6.4×8.0×leverage fraction fexpected log-growth per bar
g(f) empiricalf★ argmaxparametric f★
Maximum expected log-growth from leveraging the historical return distribution. Empirical f★ argmaxes the sample expectation; parametric f★ = μ/σ² is Merton's continuous-time optimum.

§18 · MC equity fan

Bootstrapped equity fan at 3.00× leverage
Median CAGR/bar 0.005% · annualized Sharpe 55.27400 paths × 720 bars · leverage 3.00× · bootstrap from 4999 observed returns
Sharpe / barμ/σ
0.024
annualized 55.27
μ per barafter L
0.005%
σ per barafter L
0.22%
VaR 95%5%
0.19%
per-bar worst-case
CVaR 95%ES
0.45%
mean tail loss
Max DD (median)MDD
-0.3%
0.89×0.96×1.02×1.08×1.15×1.21×0120240360480600720startbar #equity multiple
median25/75 band5/95 band
Median path with 25/75 and 5/95 percentile bands across 400 simulated careers. Bars resample with replacement from the observed return distribution — preserves fat tails the parametric model misses.

§19 · Annualized breakdown

Annualized return components
APR 1000% · APY 1000% · Sharpe 53.38σ ann 168% · Sortino 37.99 · n 4999 · ⚠ capped (n=4999 too small to support 8760-bar projection)
0%1281%2562%3843%5124%6405%1000.0%APR (simple)1000.0%APY (compound)168.4%Ann. vol σ5337.8%Sharpe (ann)3799.3%Sortino (ann)
Simple APR vs compounded APY · annualized volatility · risk-adjusted Sharpe and Sortino. All scaled by √(periods/yr).

§20 · GARCH(1,1) volatility band

GARCH(1,1) · conditional vol envelope (±2σ)
GARCH persistence α+β = 0.980· σ̂ₜ = 1.001% · long-run σ = 2.236%
0.2580.2680.2780.2890.2990.310t-4999t-4166t-3333t-2500t-1666t-833t-0

Persistence near 1 ⇒ vol clusters strongly (slow mean reversion). Long-run σ is the unconditional target the conditional vol orbits. The ±2σ band reflects time-varying scale, unlike a flat-vol band.

Time-varying volatility band fitted to the price series. Persistence α+β > 0.98 means vol shocks decay slowly — recent moves stay relevant.

§∞ · Provenance & attestation

Upstream
api.hyperliquid.xyz
Snapshot fetched
2026-06-14 14:28:54 UTC
Snapshot age
1.1s
History points
25 hourly closes
Page rendered
2026-06-14 14:28:55 UTC
Storage policy
no persistence — fetched on every request
SHA-256 attestation
065c135e4d5f208352391a37fdfbd6003cbf981370a36eb70a2fc11cf8ad0eca · deterministic hash of the source snapshot — proves this page was rendered from this exact data
Open data licence
CC0 / public domain · free to mirror, syndicate, analyse

§∞-2 · Related markets · explore more

HL PREDGermany94.3¢HL PREDSpain90.3¢HL PREDUruguay66.7¢POLYMARKETWill Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?0¢POLYMARKETWill Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?0¢POLYMARKETWill Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?1¢HL PERPBTC-USD perpetual$64,214HL PERPETH-USD perpetual$1,666.5HL PERPHYPE-USD perpetual$60.26

Also see: /arb opportunities · RSS feed

Market depth

▸ live order book · Hyperliquid perp
Depth within 1bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Depth within 5bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Depth within 10bp
$898
bid $552 · ask $345
Depth within 50bp
$12.59K
bid $6.32K · ask $6.27K
Mid price
0.293460
(best bid + best ask) / 2
Spread
13.6bp
(bestAsk − bestBid) / mid
Imbalance (whole book)
-0.234
ask-heavy
Imbalance (top-5)
-0.239
ask-heavy top-of-book

Slippage scenarios

▸ live book walk · Hyperliquid perp

Simulating a market order at three notionals against the live book. Slippage = avg execution price vs. mid, in basis points. Worst fill = price of the deepest level touched. Live JSON: /api/asset/hl-APEX/slippage?size=10000&side=buy

SideNotionalAvg fillSlippageWorst fillLevelsStatus
BUY$1.00K0.29388214.37bp0.2940604FILLED
BUY$10.00K0.29474143.64bp0.29550017FILLED
BUY$100.00K0.29496251.18bp0.29570020PARTIAL
SELL$1.00K0.29315110.53bp0.2928505FILLED
SELL$10.00K0.29232538.67bp0.29145020PARTIAL
SELL$100.00K0.29232538.67bp0.29145020PARTIAL

Funding carry

▸ LONGS PAY · shorts receive
Hourly funding
+1.250e-5
0.00125% / hr
Annualised APR
10.958%
hourly · 24 · 365.25
Long: days to 1% carry
33.3d
longs pay
Short: days to 1% carry
33.3d
shorts receive
SideDirectionAnnualised carryDays → 1%Days → 10%
LONGPAY-10.958%33.3d333.3d
SHORTRECEIVE10.958%33.3d333.3d

/api/asset/hl-APEX/carry · same metrics, JSON

Volume profile

▸ real volume · Hyperliquid candlesstep $ 1 · 25 records
Price binBarsVolumeDistribution
$0.000000–$1.0000★25$625.76K

★ POC = Point of Control (highest-volume bin). Live JSON: /api/asset/hl-APEX/volprofile?priceStep=1

Order flow

▸ BID-LEAN · +0.516 · Hyperliquid candles
Bars (buy / sell)
19 / 5
1 unclassified
Buy weight
$456.49K
real volume
Sell weight
$145.59K
real volume
Net delta
$310.90K
buyers net
Imbalance
51.64%
(buy − sell) / (buy + sell)
Toxicity (VPIN)
51.6%
one-sided / toxic
Impact (|Δp|/vol)
—
needs real volume

Sparkline = cumulative delta over the 25-record window./api/asset/hl-APEX/flow?rollingWindow=30

Cascade clusters

▸ DOWN · 3 found · deepest 2.60% · Hyperliquid candles

Price-only proxy for forced-unwind clusters. No exchange liquidation feed is wired — read each row as a candidate event, not a confirmed liquidation.

#WindowDurationPeak → TroughDrawdownBars
#12026-06-14 12:00:00Z0ms0.287440→0.2799702.599%1
#22026-06-14 04:00:00Z0ms0.269570→0.2666201.094%1
#32026-06-13 16:00:00Z2.0h0.258310→0.2564700.712%3

/api/asset/hl-APEX/cascades?windowMs=10800000&minDrawdownPct=0.005 · full list + parameters in JSON

Risk metrics

▸ sovereign store · 5,000 barsperiods/year ≈ 5.26M
Realized vol (annualised)
168.39%
σ per bar = 0.000734
Mean return (annualised)
8988.20%
μ per bar = 0.000017
Sharpe (rf=0)
53.38
annualised; risk-free assumed zero
Max drawdown
4.02%
peak 0.29 → trough 0.28 over 1041 bars

/api/asset/hl-APEX/risk · same metrics, JSON