HYPERLIQUID · PERPETUAL FUTURES

2Z

2Z-USD perpetual · 24/7 trading on Hyperliquid

▸ Advanced metrics · M2M bundle

hyperliquid · perp-2z · fresh · feed 5s old
24h sparkline · 60 pts▼ -1.73%
realized vol (ann.)
41.67%
max drawdown
1.24%
sharpe
21.43
ulcer index
0.66%
RMS drawdown
pain index
0.54%
mean drawdown
mod. VaR 95%
0.01%
Cornish-Fisher
martin ratio
1363.05
ret / ulcer
CDaR 95%
1.18%
cond. drawdown
gain/pain
1.05
Σgain / Σ|loss|
sterling
755.39
ret / CDaR
omega (θ=0)
1.05
upside/downside
roll spread
0.0 bps
implied (price-only)
bars used
2000
store
spread
—
24h Δ
-1.73%
flow lean
—
carry
longs_pay
10.95%
signalNEUTRALconfidence 40%
  • 24h change -1.73%
  • funding: longs pay — perp shorts get paid to wait
  • mark cheap vs HL oracle by 21.9bps — long bias
Same bundle via M2M API: /api/m2m/hl-2z/bundle · venue execution: hyperliquid →
LIVEPOLL0SRCFRESH4.8s⏱--:--:-- UTC8NEXT8.0sUP0s--:--HIST0/30
▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC FRESH·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC FRESH·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·
MARK · live
$0.070
24h Δ · live
-1.73%
24h vol · live
$0.2M
2Z · live 24h price
n=25 · μ=0.0706 · σ=0.0006 · range [0.0696, 0.0723] · R²=0.592▼ FALLING -2.68%σ LOW 0.86%LAST 0.07040.07230.07160.07100.07030.0696μ = 0.0706max 0.0723min 0.0696dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.59μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxminlive endpoint
25 closes · last $0.07
Funding direction · live
Long fee 48.1%Short fee 51.9%SHORT FEE51.9%
Σ = 0.0%
Σ-sides total = 0.00% (100.00pp arb gap)
H(p) entropy = 0.999 / 1.00 bits (100%) · max uncertainty (~50/50)
Long fee
48.1%▬ +0.00pp
Short fee
51.9%▬ +0.00pp
1h funding 0.001250% · longs pay
Hourly contract volume · live
n=25 · Σ=2,996,501 · μ=119860.0 · σ=144445.4 · CV=1.21BURSTY · concentratedcumulative energy ↗ · 50% by h=130155,278310,555465,833621,110μ = 119860621,11050%h1h5h9h13h17h21h25#1 peak#2-3> μactivequietμ linecum energy
peak 621110 contracts
Live numerics · pulse on poll
LIVE NUMERICS9 metrics·POLL 0
⏱snapshot age
4.8s
$mark $
$0.0705
$mid $
$0.0705
◉prev-day close
$0.0717
Δ24h Δ %
-1.732%
$24h vol $
$203.25k
◐open interest $
$770.31k
%funding (1h)
0.001250%
%funding (yr)
+10.95%/yr

§1 · 24h time-series

Close price · hourly
n=25 · μ=0.0706 · σ=0.0006 · range [0.0696, 0.0723] · R²=0.592▼ FALLING -2.68%σ LOW 0.86%LAST 0.07040.07230.07160.07100.07030.0696μ = 0.0706max 0.0723min 0.0696dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.59μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
mark $0.0705 · 24h -1.73% · range $[0.0696, 0.0723]
OHLC candles · hourly
n=25 · up 11 · down 14 (44% up) · range [0.0693, 0.0725] · σ=0.0006 · CV=0.01 · bodyµ=46%BEARISH -0.38%CLOSE 0.0704 vs OPEN 0.0707 (-0.38%)&#9660; CLOSE 0.07040.07250.07170.07090.07010.0693μ close = 0.07062.4%O0.071 H0.072 L0.071 C0.072 (+2.36%)O0.071 H0.072 L0.071 C0.072 (+2.36%)O0.072 H0.072 L0.071 C0.071 (-1.28%)O0.072 H0.072 L0.071 C0.071 (-1.28%)O0.071 H0.072 L0.071 C0.071 (-0.12%)O0.071 H0.072 L0.071 C0.071 (-0.12%)O0.071 H0.072 L0.071 C0.072 (+0.83%)O0.071 H0.072 L0.071 C0.072 (+0.83%)O0.072 H0.072 L0.071 C0.071 (-0.98%)O0.072 H0.072 L0.071 C0.071 (-0.98%)O0.071 H0.071 L0.071 C0.071 (-0.21%)O0.071 H0.071 L0.071 C0.071 (-0.21%)O0.071 H0.071 L0.070 C0.070 (-0.55%)O0.071 H0.071 L0.070 C0.070 (-0.55%)O0.071 H0.071 L0.070 C0.071 (-0.01%)O0.071 H0.071 L0.070 C0.071 (-0.01%)O0.071 H0.071 L0.070 C0.070 (-0.19%)O0.071 H0.071 L0.070 C0.070 (-0.19%)O0.070 H0.071 L0.070 C0.071 (+0.44%)O0.070 H0.071 L0.070 C0.071 (+0.44%)O0.071 H0.073 L0.071 C0.071 (+0.38%)O0.071 H0.073 L0.071 C0.071 (+0.38%)O0.071 H0.071 L0.071 C0.071 (+0.19%)O0.071 H0.071 L0.071 C0.071 (+0.19%)O0.071 H0.071 L0.070 C0.070 (-0.71%)O0.071 H0.071 L0.070 C0.070 (-0.71%)O0.070 H0.071 L0.070 C0.070 (-0.15%)O0.070 H0.071 L0.070 C0.070 (-0.15%)O0.070 H0.071 L0.070 C0.070 (-0.16%)O0.070 H0.071 L0.070 C0.070 (-0.16%)O0.070 H0.071 L0.070 C0.070 (+0.15%)O0.070 H0.071 L0.070 C0.070 (+0.15%)O0.070 H0.070 L0.070 C0.070 (-0.69%)O0.070 H0.070 L0.070 C0.070 (-0.69%)O0.070 H0.071 L0.069 C0.071 (+1.96%)O0.070 H0.071 L0.069 C0.071 (+1.96%)O0.071 H0.071 L0.070 C0.070 (-1.24%)O0.071 H0.071 L0.070 C0.070 (-1.24%)O0.070 H0.071 L0.070 C0.070 (+0.16%)O0.070 H0.071 L0.070 C0.070 (+0.16%)O0.070 H0.070 L0.070 C0.070 (+0.30%)O0.070 H0.070 L0.070 C0.070 (+0.30%)O0.070 H0.070 L0.070 C0.070 (-0.10%)O0.070 H0.070 L0.070 C0.070 (-0.10%)O0.070 H0.070 L0.070 C0.070 (-0.81%)O0.070 H0.070 L0.070 C0.070 (-0.81%)O0.070 H0.070 L0.069 C0.070 (+0.43%)O0.070 H0.070 L0.069 C0.070 (+0.43%)O0.070 H0.070 L0.070 C0.070 (+0.48%)O0.070 H0.070 L0.070 C0.070 (+0.48%)#1#5#9#13#17#21#25up bar (C≥O)down bar (C<O)MA(5) closeμ closedoji (~no body)biggest body
25 bars
Hourly volume (base units)
n=25 · Σ=2,996,501 · μ=119860.0 · σ=144445.4 · CV=1.21BURSTY · concentratedcumulative energy &nearr; · 50% by h=130155,278310,555465,833621,110μ = 119860199,691 · 32.2% peak199,691 · 32.2% peak124,865 · 20.1% peak124,865 · 20.1% peak85,645 · 13.8% peak85,645 · 13.8% peak59,111 · 9.5% peak59,111 · 9.5% peak92,046 · 14.8% peak92,046 · 14.8% peak30,882 · 5.0% peak30,882 · 5.0% peak87,090 · 14.0% peak87,090 · 14.0% peak29,792 · 4.8% peak29,792 · 4.8% peak70,580 · 11.4% peak70,580 · 11.4% peak47,113 · 7.6% peak47,113 · 7.6% peak457,262 · 73.6% peak457,262 · 73.6% peak41,427 · 6.7% peak41,427 · 6.7% peak312,416 · 50.3% peak312,416 · 50.3% peak46,954 · 7.6% peak46,954 · 7.6% peak40,299 · 6.5% peak40,299 · 6.5% peak24,965 · 4.0% peak24,965 · 4.0% peak43,785 · 7.0% peak43,785 · 7.0% peak621,110621,110 · 100.0% peak621,110 · 100.0% peak107,983 · 17.4% peak107,983 · 17.4% peak196,745 · 31.7% peak196,745 · 31.7% peak53,032 · 8.5% peak53,032 · 8.5% peak39,178 · 6.3% peak39,178 · 6.3% peak94,129 · 15.2% peak94,129 · 15.2% peak57,324 · 9.2% peak57,324 · 9.2% peak33,077 · 5.3% peak33,077 · 5.3% peak50%#1#5#9#13#17#21#25#1 peak#2-3> μactivequietμ linecum energy
Σ vol 2996501 · peak 621110 · CV 1.21

§2 · Returns distribution (log-returns)

Histogram of rₜ = ln(pₜ/pₜ₋₁)
n=24 · 12 bins · μ=-0.0014 · σ=0.0070 · skew=0.25 (symmetric) · kurt=0.21 (mesokurtic)86420 1-146.69bpbin -146.69bp · n=1 · 12.5% peakbin -146.69bp · n=1 · 12.5% peak 2-118.10bpbin -118.10bp · n=2 · 25.0% peakbin -118.10bp · n=2 · 25.0% peak 3-89.50bpbin -89.50bp · n=3 · 37.5% peakbin -89.50bp · n=3 · 37.5% peak 1-60.90bpbin -60.90bp · n=1 · 12.5% peakbin -60.90bp · n=1 · 12.5% peak 2-32.31bpbin -32.31bp · n=2 · 25.0% peakbin -32.31bp · n=2 · 25.0% peak 8-3.71bpbin -3.71bp · n=8 · 100.0% peakbin -3.71bp · n=8 · 100.0% peak 224.88bpbin 24.88bp · n=2 · 25.0% peakbin 24.88bp · n=2 · 25.0% peak 353.48bpbin 53.48bp · n=3 · 37.5% peakbin 53.48bp · n=3 · 37.5% peak 182.08bpbin 82.08bp · n=1 · 12.5% peakbin 82.08bp · n=1 · 12.5% peak110.67bp139.27bp 1167.86bpbin 167.86bp · n=1 · 12.5% peakbin 167.86bp · n=1 · 12.5% peakμΔ < 0 · loss barsΔ ≈ 0 · flatΔ > 0 · gain barsN(μ,σ²) referenceμ line · ±σ band shaded
n=24 · positive 11 · negative 13
Q-Q plot · standardised rₜ vs N(0,1)
n=24 · skew=0.24 · kurt=0.65 · near 22 / mid 2 / far 0 · OLS slope=1.01 intercept=-0.00MATCHES NORMAL · WELL-BEHAVEDUPPER TAIL NORMALLOWER TAIL NORMAL-3σ-3σ-2σ-2σ-1σ-1σ+0σ+0σ+1σ+1σ+2σ+2σ+3σ+3σsample ↓marginal: sample bars + theoretical N(0,1) curve →theoretical Φ⁻¹(p) →↑ sample z-quantile|Δ| < 0.3σ · on the line|Δ| < 1σ · moderate|Δ| ≥ 1σ · outliery = x refOLS fit

§3 · Spot quote

Mark price
$0.0705
Mid price
$0.0705
24h change
-1.73%
Mark–mid spread
2.41 bps
Prev-day close
$0.0717

§4 · Sample moments (prices)

Descriptive statistics · 5-number summary · shape diagnostics
SAMPLE MOMENTS · N=25RIGHT-SKEWED (G₁=0.83)
μ MEAN0.0706$95% CI: [0.0704$, 0.0708$]
σ STD DEV0.0006$σ² = 0.004×10⁻⁴ · CV = 0.86%
med MEDIAN0.0705$Q₁ 0.0702$ · Q₃ 0.0710$
FIVE-NUMBER SUMMARY · BOX PLOTrange 0.0027$ · IQR 0.0008$ (1.349σ→0.0008$)
min 0.0696$Q₁ 0.0702$med 0.0705$Q₃ 0.0710$max 0.0723$μ
SKEWNESS · G₁0.835right-skewed
−3−10+1+3
EXCESS KURTOSIS · G₂0.658mesokurtic · normal-like
−30+2+4+6
μ ↔ medianμ > med · right-tailed|μ−med| / σ = 0.24
σ × 1.349 ↔ IQRconsistent with normalratio = 1.04
range ↔ σwide tails (range > 4σ)range / σ = 4.48
μ = mean · σ = standard deviation · CV = coefficient of variation. Skew (G₁): >0 right-skewed. Kurt (G₂, excess): >0 leptokurtic. 95% CI = μ ± 1.96·SE.

§5 · Returns analytics (log-returns)

Risk-adjusted performance · log-returns
RETURNS · RISK-ADJUSTEDUNPROFITABLE · SR=-14.30
μᵣ MEAN / h-0.113175%drift is negative per h · |μ|/σ = 0.153
σᵣ STD / h0.740680%σ²ᵣ = 0.549×10⁻⁴ · CV = 6.54×
σ ANNUALISED69.32%/yrscaled by √8760 (hourly→yearly) · 0.741%/h base
RISK-ADJUSTED PERFORMANCEhigher = better edge per unit risk
SHARPE (annualised)-14.30negative edge
-2-10+1+2+3+4
SORTINO (annualised)-13.68downside drag
-2-10+1+2+3+4
CALMAR (return / max-DD)-100.00drawdown overwhelms returns
-20+2+4+6
RETURN-DISTRIBUTION SHAPE|skew| < 0.5 ≈ symmetric · |kurt| < 1 ≈ mesokurtic
SKEWNESS · G₁0.26approximately symmetric
-3-10+1+3
EXCESS KURTOSIS · G₂1.11leptokurtic · fat tails
-30+2+4+6
SORTINO vs SHARPEdownside vol < total vol · favourableSoR / SR = 0.96
CALMAR · DD CONTROLdrawdown > returns · adverseCR = -100.00
EXPECTED EDGE-991.41%/yr driftμ × 8760 = annualised expectation
rₜ = ln(pₜ/pₜ₋₁). σ × √8760 = annualised. Sharpe = μ/σ scaled; Sortino uses downside-only vol; Calmar = annual return / max drawdown.

§6 · Risk metrics

Tail risk + drawdown · downside diagnostics
TAIL & DRAWDOWN RISKHIGH · 95% VaR 1.28%
VaR₉₅ (h)1.277%5% prob of larger adverse h move
VaR₉₉ (h)1.542%1% prob · extreme-tail threshold
ES₉₅ (CVaR)1.463%expected loss given 5% tail event
MAX DRAWDOWN3.79%22h from peak to trough
TAIL-RISK LADDER (h losses)larger negative = worse · markers show severity
0 · no lossVaR₉₅−1.277%VaR₉₉−1.542%ES₉₅−1.463%worst tail ←→ zero loss
MAX DRAWDOWN PROFILEmoderate drawdown · 22h duration
PEAK7.23$
−3.79% drawdown over 22h
6.96$TROUGH
ES / VaR · TAIL THICKNESSmild tail heaviness|ES₉₅| / |VaR₉₅| = 1.15× (normal ≈ 1.25)
VaR₉₉ / VaR₉₅ · CONCENTRATIONuniform tailratio = 1.21× (normal ≈ 1.41)
DRAWDOWN · CAPITAL DURATIONmoderate drawdownrecovery needed: +3.93% (compounding)
VaR = quantile loss · ES (CVaR) = expected loss conditional on tail · DD = peak-to-trough decline. Under normality ES₉₅/VaR₉₅ ≈ 1.25; ratio > 1.5 ⇒ fat-tail regime.

§7 · Technicals

RSI(14)
42.7 · neutral
Bollinger %B
0.499 · within band
Bollinger upper
$0.0712
Bollinger MA
$0.0704
Bollinger lower
$0.0696

§8 · Time-series structure

Regime & autocorrelation diagnostics
TIME-SERIES STRUCTUREREGIME: MEAN-REVERTING · ρ(1) -0.38 + ADF rejected
ρ(1) AUTOCORR-0.382within white-noise band
ρ(2) AUTOCORR-0.042lag-2 not significant
H · HURST EXPONENT0.817strongly persistent
OLS TREND · t-STAT-5.782significant @ α=0.05
HURST EXPONENT [0, 1]strongly persistent · H = 0.817
H = 0.817STRONGLY PERSISTENT
0
anti-persistent0.45
mean-reverting0.5
random walk0.55
persistent1
strongly trending
AUTOCORRELATION FUNCTION · ρ(k) for k=1..5WHITE NOISE · no significant lags
k=1-0.382k=2-0.042k=3+0.001k=4+0.144k=5-0.2950+1−1+0.41−0.41+ momentum (ρ > +0.41)− reversal (ρ < −0.41)noise (within band)±2/√n threshold
OLS TREND · t-STAT · [-5, +5]SIGNIFICANT @ 1% (|t|=5.78)
−5 reject−1.960 retain H₀+1.96+5 reject
REGIME CLASSIFICATIONMEAN-REVERTING · ρ(1) -0.38 + ADF rejectedfrom Hurst + ρ(1) joint diagnosis
PREDICTABILITY · score 1.00very high · strong structure|ρ(1)| + 2·|H − 0.5| heuristic
TREND SIGNIFICANCESIGNIFICANT @ 1% (|t|=5.78)α=0.05 critical |t|=1.96 · α=0.01 |t|=2.58
ρ(k) = lag-k sample autocorrelation · H = R/S Hurst exponent · t = OLS-trend t-statistic. Significance bands at ±2/√n approximate the 95% white-noise envelope. α=0.05 critical |t|=1.96; α=0.01 |t|=2.58.

§9 · Microstructure

24h volume (USD)
$203.25k
Open interest (USD)
$770.31k
Vol / OI (turnover)
0.26x
1h funding
0.001250%
Funding (annualised)
+10.95%/yr

§10 · Position sizing

Continuous Kelly (μ/σ²)
-10.000× leverage · optimal log-utility leverage
Half-Kelly
-5.000× · industry-standard conservative
Quarter-Kelly
-2.500×

§11 · Hourly return heatmap

24-hour signed Δln-r grid · green = up · red = down
HOURLY RETURN HEATMAP · n=24 bars · best 1.82% · worst -1.61% · typical |Δ| 0.54%MILD BEARISH -2.72%BEST+1.82%05hWORST-1.61%13hTYPICAL |Δ|0.54%mean absoluteCUMULATIVE-2.72%Σ signed ΔSTREAK↗ 2up-runASIA · 00-08 UTCμ -0.15% · Σ -1.20%EUROPE · 08-16 UTCμ -0.06% · Σ -0.47%US · 16-24 UTCμ -0.13% · Σ -1.05%CUMULATIVE Δ PATH · final -2.72%+0.00%-3.86%-1.61% · 13h-1.61% · 13h-1.61%13h▼ WORST-0.06% · 14h-0.06% · 14h-0.06%14h0.88% · 15h0.88% · 15h0.88%15h-1.06% · 16h-1.06% · 16h-1.06%16h-0.16% · 17h-0.16% · 17h-0.16%17h-0.54% · 18h-0.54% · 18h-0.54%18h0.08% · 19h0.08% · 19h0.08%19h-0.23% · 20h-0.23% · 20h-0.23%20h0.51% · 21h0.51% · 21h0.51%21h0.29% · 22h0.29% · 22h0.29%22h0.06% · 23h0.06% · 23h0.06%23h-0.77% · 00h-0.77% · 00h-0.77%00h-0.15% · 01h-0.15% · 01h-0.15%01h-0.21% · 02h-0.21% · 02h-0.21%02h0.09% · 03h0.09% · 03h0.09%03h-0.76% · 04h-0.76% · 04h-0.76%04h1.82% · 05h1.82% · 05h1.82%05h★ BEST-1.32% · 06h-1.32% · 06h-1.32%06h0.09% · 07h0.09% · 07h0.09%07h0.14% · 08h0.14% · 08h0.14%08h-0.10% · 09h-0.10% · 09h-0.10%09h-0.86% · 10h-0.86% · 10h-0.86%10h0.59% · 11h0.59% · 11h0.59%11h0.55% · 12h0.55% · 12h0.55%12hTIME PATTERNEurope-led (+-0.47%)RUNSup max 3 · down max 3BREADTH46% up · 54% down
11 up bars · 13 down · best 1.82% · worst -1.61% · typical |Δ| 0.538%

§12 · Equity curve & underwater drawdown

Cumulative compounded return + running peak-to-trough
EQUITY & DRAWDOWN ANALYSIS · n=25 barsLOSS WITH MODERATE DD (-2.74%)FINAL-2.74%MAX DD-3.84%RECOVERYONGOING · 24 barsMAX RUN-UP+0.00%UNDERWATER24/25 (96%)STREAK↗ 2EQUITY CURVE · end 0.9726 · peak 1.0000 · range [0.9616, 1.0000]1.00000.9616break-even = 1★ PEAK 1.0000UNDERWATER DRAWDOWN · max -3.84% · moderate0%-3.84%▼ TROUGH -3.84%TOP DRAWDOWN PERIODS · 1 total#1 -3.84%bar 2-25 · 24 bars · ONGOINGDD SEVERITYmoderate (max -3.84%)RECOVERYongoing · 24 barsTIME UNDER WATER96% of session · 24/25 bars
final equity 0.9726 (-2.74%) · max DD -3.84% · time-under-water 24/25 bars

§13 · Rolling-window statistics (w = 6 bars)

Rolling annualised Sharpe ratio · green positive · red negative
n=19 · +4 / −15 (21% positive) · μ=-14.92 · σ=20.99UNPROFITABLE STRATEGYLAST 12.31 (+1.30σ vs μ)70.3435.170.00-35.17-70.34μ = -14.92-46.18-46.18-20.74-20.74-24.64-24.64-40.47-40.47-1.81-1.817.317.31-2.23-2.23-10.24-10.24-9.74-9.74-29.60-29.60-70.34-70.340.410.41-7.58-7.58-4.13-4.131.071.07-1.73-1.73-3.18-3.18-32.05-32.0512.3112.31v > 0 · positivev < 0 · negativeμ mean lineμ ± σ bandlatest bar (outlined)
latest 12.307 · range [-70.34, 12.31] · μ -14.925 · positive Sharpe = excess-return-per-risk earned by buying-and-holding through this window
Rolling annualised volatility (%)
n=19 · μ=64.3204 · σ=26.4418 · range [34.4159, 100.9186] · R²=0.196▼ FALLING -38.68%σ EXTREME 41.11%LAST 49.4875100.918684.292967.667251.041534.4159μ = 64.3204max 100.9186min 34.4159dataMA(3)OLS R²=0.20μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
latest 49.49% · range [34.42%, 100.92%] · μ 64.32% · σ̂ scaled to annualised (×√8760)
Rolling lag-1 autocorrelation ρ(1)
n=19 · +3 / −16 (16% positive) · μ=-0.282 · σ=0.299MEAN-REVERSIONLAST -0.060 (+0.74σ vs μ)0.7030.3520.000-0.352-0.703μ = -0.282-0.265-0.265-0.441-0.441-0.504-0.504-0.119-0.1190.0730.073-0.052-0.052-0.010-0.0100.1180.1180.2340.234-0.060-0.060-0.502-0.502-0.288-0.288-0.665-0.665-0.703-0.703-0.697-0.697-0.685-0.685-0.425-0.425-0.308-0.308-0.060-0.060v > 0 · positivev < 0 · negativeμ mean lineμ ± σ bandlatest bar (outlined)
latest -0.060 · |ρ| > 0.3 ⇒ regime with persistence (ρ > 0) or reversal (ρ < 0) · |ρ| ≤ 0.1 = consistent with random walk

§14 · Hypothesis tests (α = 0.05)

Formal inference at 5% significance
3 of 6 REJECT · mixed evidence3 reject·3 pass·α = 0.05
𝒩

Jarque-Bera

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Δln-r ~ Normal(μ, σ²)

STATISTIC
1.4982
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.4728
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainednormality not rejected
ρ

Ljung-Box(h=5)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: No serial autocorrelation up to lag 5

STATISTIC
7.5105
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.1841
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedconsistent with white noise
Ψ

Dickey-Fuller (τ_μ)

REJECT H₀**

H₀: p has a unit root (non-stationary)

STATISTIC
-3.7394
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.0040
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p < α · rejection zonestationary · mean-reverting (crit ≈ -2.86)
±

Wald-Wolfowitz runs

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Sign sequence of Δ is random

STATISTIC
0.4555
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.6487
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedsigns appear random (14 runs)
χ

KPSS (μ stationarity)

REJECT H₀**

H₀: p IS level-stationary

STATISTIC
0.7773
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.0081
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p < α · rejection zonenon-stationary (crit 0.463)
χ

Variance ratio q=3

REJECT H₀*

H₀: Δln-r is a random walk · VR = 1

STATISTIC
-2.2559
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.0241
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p < α · rejection zoneVR 0.314 → mean-reverting
Each row states an explicit null H₀, the test statistic, an approximated p-value, and the decision. REJECT means evidence against H₀. KPSS complements ADF (rejecting both ⇒ ambiguous; rejecting one ⇒ clean verdict).

§15 · Spectral analysis (DFT periodogram)

Power spectrum of Δln-r · ‖X̂(k)‖²/n
n=12 bins · noise floor μ=6.09e-5 · top T=3.43h (28.4%) · top-3 cover 70.8%2 SIGNIFICANT CYCLEScumulative energy ↗ (2 bins above 2× noise)2.1e-41.6e-41.0e-45.2e-50.0e+0μ noise floor2× noise (significance)period 24.0 · power 4.13e-6 · 0.6% energyperiod 24.0 · power 4.13e-6 · 0.6% energyperiod 12.0 · power 6.07e-6 · 0.8% energyperiod 12.0 · power 6.07e-6 · 0.8% energyperiod 8.0 · power 2.39e-5 · 3.3% energyperiod 8.0 · power 2.39e-5 · 3.3% energyperiod 6.0 · power 2.32e-5 · 3.2% energyperiod 6.0 · power 2.32e-5 · 3.2% energyperiod 4.8 · power 8.41e-6 · 1.2% energyperiod 4.8 · power 8.41e-6 · 1.2% energyperiod 4.0 · power 1.04e-5 · 1.4% energyperiod 4.0 · power 1.04e-5 · 1.4% energyperiod 3.4 · power 2.07e-4 · 28.4% energyperiod 3.4 · power 2.07e-4 · 28.4% energyperiod 3.0 · power 1.10e-4 · 15.1% energyperiod 3.0 · power 1.10e-4 · 15.1% energyperiod 2.7 · power 2.69e-6 · 0.4% energyperiod 2.7 · power 2.69e-6 · 0.4% energyperiod 2.4 · power 9.98e-5 · 13.7% energyperiod 2.4 · power 9.98e-5 · 13.7% energyperiod 2.2 · power 3.50e-5 · 4.8% energyperiod 2.2 · power 3.50e-5 · 4.8% energyperiod 2.0 · power 1.99e-4 · 27.3% energyperiod 2.0 · power 1.99e-4 · 27.3% energy50% by T=3.0h#1 dominantT=3.43h#2T=2.00h#3T=3.00hT=2hT=3hT=4hT=6hT=8hT=12hT=16hT=24h← shorter cycle (high freq · Nyquist=½) · period T (bars per cycle) · longer cycle (low freq · 1/n) →#1 dominant#2 peak#3 peak> 2× noisenoiseμ floor2μ sig.cum energy
dominant period ≈ 3.43h (freq 0.292) · concentrates 28.4% of total energy · Σ|X̂|²/n = 7.305e-4

▸ Depth section using sovereign-store price series (5000 bars · effective 5257847 bars/year) — annualisation reflects native polling cadence, not upstream timeframes.

§16 · NOSTRADAMUS continuous quant — perp leverage & bootstrap MC

Continuous-price extension of the prediction-market quant module. Kelly growth on observed returns (Merton μ/σ² parametric vs argmax empirical), Monte-Carlo equity fan bootstrapped from the historical return distribution at quarter-Kelly leverage, and an annualized return decomposition. Sweep parameters in the simulator.

§17 · Continuous Kelly

Continuous-Kelly growth · g(f) = E[ln(1 + f·r)]
f★ empirical 4.00× · g(f★) 0.000%/barparametric μ/σ² 3.90× · μ 0.000% · σ 0.03%
μ per barmean
0.000%
σ per barvol
0.03%
Empirical f★argmax g(f)
4.00×
from observed distribution
Parametric f★μ/σ²
3.90×
Merton continuous-time
Half-Kelly½ f★
2.00×
~⅔ of full growth, half the variance
Quarter-Kelly¼ f★
1.00×
industry default — survives model error
0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.0×1.6×3.2×4.8×6.4×8.0×f★ empμ/σ²leverage fraction fexpected log-growth per bar
g(f) empiricalf★ argmaxparametric f★
Maximum expected log-growth from leveraging the historical return distribution. Empirical f★ argmaxes the sample expectation; parametric f★ = μ/σ² is Merton's continuous-time optimum.

§18 · MC equity fan

Bootstrapped equity fan at 0.97× leverage
Median CAGR/bar -0.000% · annualized Sharpe -6.67400 paths × 720 bars · leverage 0.97× · bootstrap from 4999 observed returns
Sharpe / barμ/σ
-0.003
annualized -6.67
μ per barafter L
-0.000%
σ per barafter L
0.03%
VaR 95%5%
0.03%
per-bar worst-case
CVaR 95%ES
0.06%
mean tail loss
Max DD (median)MDD
-0.1%
0.94×0.96×0.99×1.01×1.04×1.06×0120240360480600720startbar #equity multiple
median25/75 band5/95 band
Median path with 25/75 and 5/95 percentile bands across 400 simulated careers. Bars resample with replacement from the observed return distribution — preserves fat tails the parametric model misses.

§19 · Annualized breakdown

Annualized return components
APR 241% · APY 716% · Sharpe 3.06σ ann 79% · Sortino 2.92 · n 4999
0%172%344%515%687%859%240.6%APR (simple)715.7%APY (compound)78.5%Ann. vol σ306.3%Sharpe (ann)291.9%Sortino (ann)
Simple APR vs compounded APY · annualized volatility · risk-adjusted Sharpe and Sortino. All scaled by √(periods/yr).

§20 · GARCH(1,1) volatility band

GARCH(1,1) · conditional vol envelope (±2σ)
GARCH persistence α+β = 0.980· σ̂ₜ = 1.001% · long-run σ = 2.236%
0.0670.0680.0700.0710.0730.074t-4999t-4166t-3333t-2500t-1666t-833t-0

Persistence near 1 ⇒ vol clusters strongly (slow mean reversion). Long-run σ is the unconditional target the conditional vol orbits. The ±2σ band reflects time-varying scale, unlike a flat-vol band.

Time-varying volatility band fitted to the price series. Persistence α+β > 0.98 means vol shocks decay slowly — recent moves stay relevant.

§∞ · Provenance & attestation

Upstream
api.hyperliquid.xyz
Snapshot fetched
2026-06-14 12:18:40 UTC
Snapshot age
4.8s
History points
25 hourly closes
Page rendered
2026-06-14 12:18:45 UTC
Storage policy
no persistence — fetched on every request
SHA-256 attestation
fb9ca468d5fe6f3c52c57c8a8950d3c64dea1280f173d589663f0de0a9c1d68c · deterministic hash of the source snapshot — proves this page was rendered from this exact data
Open data licence
CC0 / public domain · free to mirror, syndicate, analyse

§∞-2 · Related markets · explore more

HL PREDGermany94.3¢HL PREDSpain90.3¢HL PREDUruguay66.6¢POLYMARKETWill Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?0¢POLYMARKETWill Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?0¢POLYMARKETUS x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?17¢HL PERPBTC-USD perpetual$64,473HL PERPETH-USD perpetual$1,673.2HL PERPHYPE-USD perpetual$61.04

Also see: /arb opportunities · RSS feed

Market depth

▸ live order book · Hyperliquid perp
Depth within 1bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Depth within 5bp
$1.61K
bid $1.36K · ask $250
Depth within 10bp
$1.86K
bid $1.36K · ask $500
Depth within 50bp
$30.61K
bid $13.82K · ask $16.78K
Mid price
0.070550
(best bid + best ask) / 2
Spread
7.5bp
(bestAsk − bestBid) / mid
Imbalance (whole book)
-0.124
ask-heavy
Imbalance (top-5)
+0.193
bid-heavy top-of-book

Slippage scenarios

▸ live book walk · Hyperliquid perp

Simulating a market order at three notionals against the live book. Slippage = avg execution price vs. mid, in basis points. Worst fill = price of the deepest level touched. Live JSON: /api/asset/hl-2z/slippage?size=10000&side=buy

SideNotionalAvg fillSlippageWorst fillLevelsStatus
BUY$1.00K0.0706108.64bp0.0706275FILLED
BUY$10.00K0.07073225.90bp0.07080413FILLED
BUY$100.00K0.07078232.98bp0.07090720PARTIAL
SELL$1.00K0.0705233.76bp0.0705231FILLED
SELL$10.00K0.07040919.93bp0.07029715FILLED
SELL$100.00K0.07036825.72bp0.07023020PARTIAL

Funding carry

▸ LONGS PAY · shorts receive
Hourly funding
+1.250e-5
0.00125% / hr
Annualised APR
10.958%
hourly · 24 · 365.25
Long: days to 1% carry
33.3d
longs pay
Short: days to 1% carry
33.3d
shorts receive
SideDirectionAnnualised carryDays → 1%Days → 10%
LONGPAY-10.958%33.3d333.3d
SHORTRECEIVE10.958%33.3d333.3d

/api/asset/hl-2z/carry · same metrics, JSON

Volume profile

▸ real volume · Hyperliquid candlesstep $ 1 · 25 records
Price binBarsVolumeDistribution
$0.000000–$1.0000★25$3.00M

★ POC = Point of Control (highest-volume bin). Live JSON: /api/asset/hl-2z/volprofile?priceStep=1

Order flow

▸ BID-LEAN · +0.159 · Hyperliquid candles
Bars (buy / sell)
11 / 13
1 unclassified
Buy weight
$1.62M
real volume
Sell weight
$1.18M
real volume
Net delta
$445.11K
buyers net
Imbalance
15.91%
(buy − sell) / (buy + sell)
Toxicity (VPIN)
15.9%
two-sided / balanced
Impact (|Δp|/vol)
—
needs real volume

Sparkline = cumulative delta over the 25-record window./api/asset/hl-2z/flow?rollingWindow=30

Cascade clusters

▸ DOWN · 5 found · deepest 2.66% · Hyperliquid candles

Price-only proxy for forced-unwind clusters. No exchange liquidation feed is wired — read each row as a candidate event, not a confirmed liquidation.

#WindowDurationPeak → TroughDrawdownBars
#12026-06-13 13:00:00Z7.0h0.072323→0.0703992.660%8
#22026-06-14 06:00:00Z2.0h0.071020→0.0700921.307%3
#32026-06-14 00:00:00Z2.0h0.071002→0.0702031.125%3

/api/asset/hl-2z/cascades?windowMs=10800000&minDrawdownPct=0.005 · full list + parameters in JSON

Risk metrics

▸ sovereign store · 5,000 barsperiods/year ≈ 5.26M
Realized vol (annualised)
78.55%
σ per bar = 0.000343
Mean return (annualised)
240.59%
μ per bar = 0.000000
Sharpe (rf=0)
3.06
annualised; risk-free assumed zero
Max drawdown
2.45%
peak 0.07 → trough 0.07 over 3207 bars

/api/asset/hl-2z/risk · same metrics, JSON