HYPERLIQUID · PERPETUAL FUTURES

0G

0G-USD perpetual · 24/7 trading on Hyperliquid

▸ Advanced metrics · M2M bundle

hyperliquid · perp-0g · fresh · feed 5s old
24h sparkline · 60 pts▼ -1.67%
realized vol (ann.)
71.13%
max drawdown
1.47%
sharpe
25.80
ulcer index
0.83%
RMS drawdown
pain index
0.71%
mean drawdown
mod. VaR 95%
0.03%
Cornish-Fisher
martin ratio
2210.57
ret / ulcer
CDaR 95%
1.38%
cond. drawdown
gain/pain
1.06
Σgain / Σ|loss|
sterling
1330.55
ret / CDaR
omega (θ=0)
1.06
upside/downside
roll spread
0.0 bps
implied (price-only)
bars used
2000
store
spread
—
24h Δ
-1.67%
flow lean
—
carry
longs_pay
10.95%
signalNEUTRALconfidence 40%
  • 24h change -1.67%
  • funding: longs pay — perp shorts get paid to wait
  • mark cheap vs HL oracle by 18.2bps — long bias
Same bundle via M2M API: /api/m2m/hl-0g/bundle · venue execution: hyperliquid →
LIVEPOLL0SRCFRESH5.1s⏱--:--:-- UTC8NEXT8.0sUP0s--:--HIST0/30
▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC FRESH·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC FRESH·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·
MARK · live
$0.296
24h Δ · live
-1.67%
24h vol · live
$0.3M
0G · live 24h price
n=25 · μ=0.2982 · σ=0.0035 · range [0.2924, 0.3055] · R²=0.797▼ FALLING -2.49%σ NORMAL 1.19%LAST 0.29610.30550.30220.29890.29560.2924μ = 0.2982max 0.3055min 0.2924dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.80μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxminlive endpoint
25 closes · last $0.30
Funding direction · live
Long fee 48.1%Short fee 51.9%SHORT FEE51.9%
Σ = 0.0%
Σ-sides total = 0.00% (100.00pp arb gap)
H(p) entropy = 0.999 / 1.00 bits (100%) · max uncertainty (~50/50)
Long fee
48.1%▬ +0.00pp
Short fee
51.9%▬ +0.00pp
1h funding 0.001250% · longs pay
Hourly contract volume · live
n=25 · Σ=1,009,601 · μ=40384.0 · σ=50869.8 · CV=1.26BURSTY · concentratedcumulative energy ↗ · 50% by h=11052,390104,780157,170209,560μ = 40384209,56050%h1h5h9h13h17h21h25#1 peak#2-3> μactivequietμ linecum energy
peak 209560 contracts
Live numerics · pulse on poll
LIVE NUMERICS9 metrics·POLL 0
⏱snapshot age
5.1s
$mark $
$0.2961
$mid $
$0.2958
◉prev-day close
$0.3011
Δ24h Δ %
-1.674%
$24h vol $
$293.69k
◐open interest $
$280.64k
%funding (1h)
0.001250%
%funding (yr)
+10.95%/yr

§1 · 24h time-series

Close price · hourly
n=25 · μ=0.2982 · σ=0.0035 · range [0.2924, 0.3055] · R²=0.797▼ FALLING -2.49%σ NORMAL 1.19%LAST 0.29610.30550.30220.29890.29560.2924μ = 0.2982max 0.3055min 0.2924dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.80μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
mark $0.2961 · 24h -1.67% · range $[0.2924, 0.3055]
OHLC candles · hourly
n=25 · up 13 · down 12 (52% up) · range [0.2920, 0.3114] · σ=0.0035 · CV=0.01 · bodyµ=49%BEARISH -1.95%CLOSE 0.2961 vs OPEN 0.3020 (-1.95%)&#9660; CLOSE 0.29610.31140.30650.30170.29690.2920μ close = 0.2982O0.302 H0.305 L0.301 C0.304 (+0.55%)O0.302 H0.305 L0.301 C0.304 (+0.55%)O0.303 H0.304 L0.301 C0.301 (-0.66%)O0.303 H0.304 L0.301 C0.301 (-0.66%)O0.301 H0.302 L0.299 C0.302 (+0.29%)O0.301 H0.302 L0.299 C0.302 (+0.29%)O0.302 H0.303 L0.300 C0.300 (-0.61%)O0.302 H0.303 L0.300 C0.300 (-0.61%)O0.300 H0.309 L0.298 C0.305 (+1.70%)O0.300 H0.309 L0.298 C0.305 (+1.70%)-1.9%O0.306 H0.306 L0.300 C0.300 (-1.94%)O0.306 H0.306 L0.300 C0.300 (-1.94%)O0.300 H0.302 L0.300 C0.301 (+0.34%)O0.300 H0.302 L0.300 C0.301 (+0.34%)O0.301 H0.301 L0.300 C0.300 (-0.31%)O0.301 H0.301 L0.300 C0.300 (-0.31%)O0.300 H0.300 L0.300 C0.300 (+0.08%)O0.300 H0.300 L0.300 C0.300 (+0.08%)O0.300 H0.302 L0.299 C0.302 (+0.44%)O0.300 H0.302 L0.299 C0.302 (+0.44%)O0.302 H0.311 L0.300 C0.301 (-0.34%)O0.302 H0.311 L0.300 C0.301 (-0.34%)O0.301 H0.301 L0.299 C0.301 (+0.09%)O0.301 H0.301 L0.299 C0.301 (+0.09%)O0.301 H0.301 L0.297 C0.297 (-1.25%)O0.301 H0.301 L0.297 C0.297 (-1.25%)O0.297 H0.299 L0.296 C0.297 (-0.01%)O0.297 H0.299 L0.296 C0.297 (-0.01%)O0.297 H0.298 L0.296 C0.297 (-0.14%)O0.297 H0.298 L0.296 C0.297 (-0.14%)O0.297 H0.303 L0.296 C0.298 (+0.40%)O0.297 H0.303 L0.296 C0.298 (+0.40%)O0.298 H0.298 L0.295 C0.295 (-1.04%)O0.298 H0.298 L0.295 C0.295 (-1.04%)O0.295 H0.297 L0.293 C0.296 (+0.31%)O0.295 H0.297 L0.293 C0.296 (+0.31%)O0.297 H0.298 L0.294 C0.294 (-0.70%)O0.297 H0.298 L0.294 C0.294 (-0.70%)O0.294 H0.295 L0.293 C0.293 (-0.49%)O0.294 H0.295 L0.293 C0.293 (-0.49%)O0.293 H0.295 L0.293 C0.294 (+0.24%)O0.293 H0.295 L0.293 C0.294 (+0.24%)O0.294 H0.296 L0.293 C0.295 (+0.49%)O0.294 H0.296 L0.293 C0.295 (+0.49%)O0.295 H0.295 L0.292 C0.292 (-1.06%)O0.295 H0.295 L0.292 C0.292 (-1.06%)O0.292 H0.294 L0.292 C0.294 (+0.48%)O0.292 H0.294 L0.292 C0.294 (+0.48%)O0.294 H0.296 L0.293 C0.296 (+0.83%)O0.294 H0.296 L0.293 C0.296 (+0.83%)#1#5#9#13#17#21#25up bar (C≥O)down bar (C<O)MA(5) closeμ closedoji (~no body)biggest body
25 bars
Hourly volume (base units)
n=25 · Σ=1,009,601 · μ=40384.0 · σ=50869.8 · CV=1.26BURSTY · concentratedcumulative energy &nearr; · 50% by h=11052,390104,780157,170209,560μ = 4038458,021 · 27.7% peak58,021 · 27.7% peak11,875 · 5.7% peak11,875 · 5.7% peak29,892 · 14.3% peak29,892 · 14.3% peak22,391 · 10.7% peak22,391 · 10.7% peak209,560209,560 · 100.0% peak209,560 · 100.0% peak42,421 · 20.2% peak42,421 · 20.2% peak17,738 · 8.5% peak17,738 · 8.5% peak24,037 · 11.5% peak24,037 · 11.5% peak21,884 · 10.4% peak21,884 · 10.4% peak18,744 · 8.9% peak18,744 · 8.9% peak144,141 · 68.8% peak144,141 · 68.8% peak14,407 · 6.9% peak14,407 · 6.9% peak14,546 · 6.9% peak14,546 · 6.9% peak12,948 · 6.2% peak12,948 · 6.2% peak8,396 · 4.0% peak8,396 · 4.0% peak150,506 · 71.8% peak150,506 · 71.8% peak21,531 · 10.3% peak21,531 · 10.3% peak48,560 · 23.2% peak48,560 · 23.2% peak16,336 · 7.8% peak16,336 · 7.8% peak11,395 · 5.4% peak11,395 · 5.4% peak20,579 · 9.8% peak20,579 · 9.8% peak44,529 · 21.2% peak44,529 · 21.2% peak21,347 · 10.2% peak21,347 · 10.2% peak18,528 · 8.8% peak18,528 · 8.8% peak5,289 · 2.5% peak5,289 · 2.5% peak50%#1#5#9#13#17#21#25#1 peak#2-3> μactivequietμ linecum energy
Σ vol 1009601 · peak 209560 · CV 1.26

§2 · Returns distribution (log-returns)

Histogram of rₜ = ln(pₜ/pₜ₋₁)
n=24 · 12 bins · μ=-0.0009 · σ=0.0073 · skew=-0.19 (symmetric) · kurt=-0.09 (mesokurtic)54310 1-178.38bpbin -178.38bp · n=1 · 20.0% peakbin -178.38bp · n=1 · 20.0% peak-148.40bp 1-118.43bpbin -118.43bp · n=1 · 20.0% peakbin -118.43bp · n=1 · 20.0% peak 3-88.45bpbin -88.45bp · n=3 · 60.0% peakbin -88.45bp · n=3 · 60.0% peak 3-58.47bpbin -58.47bp · n=3 · 60.0% peakbin -58.47bp · n=3 · 60.0% peak 2-28.49bpbin -28.49bp · n=2 · 40.0% peakbin -28.49bp · n=2 · 40.0% peak 41.49bpbin 1.49bp · n=4 · 80.0% peakbin 1.49bp · n=4 · 80.0% peak 531.47bpbin 31.47bp · n=5 · 100.0% peakbin 31.47bp · n=5 · 100.0% peak 361.45bpbin 61.45bp · n=3 · 60.0% peakbin 61.45bp · n=3 · 60.0% peak 191.43bpbin 91.43bp · n=1 · 20.0% peakbin 91.43bp · n=1 · 20.0% peak121.41bp 1151.38bpbin 151.38bp · n=1 · 20.0% peakbin 151.38bp · n=1 · 20.0% peakμΔ < 0 · loss barsΔ ≈ 0 · flatΔ > 0 · gain barsN(μ,σ²) referenceμ line · ±σ band shaded
n=24 · positive 12 · negative 12
Q-Q plot · standardised rₜ vs N(0,1)
n=24 · skew=-0.21 · kurt=0.31 · near 22 / mid 2 / far 0 · OLS slope=1.01 intercept=-0.00MATCHES NORMAL · WELL-BEHAVEDUPPER TAIL NORMALLOWER TAIL NORMAL-3σ-3σ-2σ-2σ-1σ-1σ+0σ+0σ+1σ+1σ+2σ+2σ+3σ+3σsample ↓marginal: sample bars + theoretical N(0,1) curve →theoretical Φ⁻¹(p) →↑ sample z-quantile|Δ| < 0.3σ · on the line|Δ| < 1σ · moderate|Δ| ≥ 1σ · outliery = x refOLS fit

§3 · Spot quote

Mark price
$0.2961
Mid price
$0.2958
24h change
-1.67%
Mark–mid spread
7.94 bps
Prev-day close
$0.3011

§4 · Sample moments (prices)

Descriptive statistics · 5-number summary · shape diagnostics
SAMPLE MOMENTS · N=25PLATYKURTIC · THIN TAILS (G₂=-1.11)
μ MEAN0.2982$95% CI: [0.2969$, 0.2996$]
σ STD DEV0.0035$σ² = 0.125×10⁻⁴ · CV = 1.19%
med MEDIAN0.2982$Q₁ 0.2954$ · Q₃ 0.3009$
FIVE-NUMBER SUMMARY · BOX PLOTrange 0.0131$ · IQR 0.0056$ (1.349σ→0.0048$)
min 0.2924$Q₁ 0.2954$med 0.2982$Q₃ 0.3009$max 0.3055$μ
SKEWNESS · G₁0.072approximately symmetric
−3−10+1+3
EXCESS KURTOSIS · G₂-1.113platykurtic · thin tails
−30+2+4+6
μ ↔ median≈ equal · symmetric|μ−med| / σ = 0.02
σ × 1.349 ↔ IQRconsistent with normalratio = 0.86
range ↔ σconcentrated (range < 4σ)range / σ = 3.71
μ = mean · σ = standard deviation · CV = coefficient of variation. Skew (G₁): >0 right-skewed. Kurt (G₂, excess): >0 leptokurtic. 95% CI = μ ± 1.96·SE.

§5 · Returns analytics (log-returns)

Risk-adjusted performance · log-returns
RETURNS · RISK-ADJUSTEDUNPROFITABLE · SR=-12.69
μᵣ MEAN / h-0.104907%drift is negative per h · |μ|/σ = 0.136
σᵣ STD / h0.773775%σ²ᵣ = 0.599×10⁻⁴ · CV = 7.38×
σ ANNUALISED72.42%/yrscaled by √8760 (hourly→yearly) · 0.774%/h base
RISK-ADJUSTED PERFORMANCEhigher = better edge per unit risk
SHARPE (annualised)-12.69negative edge
-2-10+1+2+3+4
SORTINO (annualised)-11.26downside drag
-2-10+1+2+3+4
CALMAR (return / max-DD)-100.00drawdown overwhelms returns
-20+2+4+6
RETURN-DISTRIBUTION SHAPE|skew| < 0.5 ≈ symmetric · |kurt| < 1 ≈ mesokurtic
SKEWNESS · G₁-0.23approximately symmetric
-3-10+1+3
EXCESS KURTOSIS · G₂0.69mesokurtic · normal-like tails
-30+2+4+6
SORTINO vs SHARPEdownside vol < total vol · favourableSoR / SR = 0.89
CALMAR · DD CONTROLdrawdown > returns · adverseCR = -100.00
EXPECTED EDGE-918.98%/yr driftμ × 8760 = annualised expectation
rₜ = ln(pₜ/pₜ₋₁). σ × √8760 = annualised. Sharpe = μ/σ scaled; Sortino uses downside-only vol; Calmar = annual return / max drawdown.

§6 · Risk metrics

Tail risk + drawdown · downside diagnostics
TAIL & DRAWDOWN RISKHIGH · 95% VaR 1.25%
VaR₉₅ (h)1.247%5% prob of larger adverse h move
VaR₉₉ (h)1.785%1% prob · extreme-tail threshold
ES₉₅ (CVaR)1.611%expected loss given 5% tail event
MAX DRAWDOWN4.29%18h from peak to trough
TAIL-RISK LADDER (h losses)larger negative = worse · markers show severity
0 · no lossVaR₉₅−1.247%VaR₉₉−1.785%ES₉₅−1.611%worst tail ←→ zero loss
MAX DRAWDOWN PROFILEmoderate drawdown · 18h duration
PEAK30.55$
−4.29% drawdown over 18h
29.24$TROUGH
ES / VaR · TAIL THICKNESSmild tail heaviness|ES₉₅| / |VaR₉₅| = 1.29× (normal ≈ 1.25)
VaR₉₉ / VaR₉₅ · CONCENTRATIONmoderate extreme-tail concentrationratio = 1.43× (normal ≈ 1.41)
DRAWDOWN · CAPITAL DURATIONmoderate drawdownrecovery needed: +4.48% (compounding)
VaR = quantile loss · ES (CVaR) = expected loss conditional on tail · DD = peak-to-trough decline. Under normality ES₉₅/VaR₉₅ ≈ 1.25; ratio > 1.5 ⇒ fat-tail regime.

§7 · Technicals

RSI(14)
44.3 · neutral
Bollinger %B
0.411 · within band
Bollinger upper
$0.3031
Bollinger MA
$0.2972
Bollinger lower
$0.2912

§8 · Time-series structure

Regime & autocorrelation diagnostics
TIME-SERIES STRUCTUREREGIME: MEAN-REVERTING · ρ(1) -0.54 + ADF rejected
ρ(1) AUTOCORR-0.536negative · reversal
ρ(2) AUTOCORR+0.196lag-2 not significant
H · HURST EXPONENT0.828strongly persistent
OLS TREND · t-STAT-9.491significant @ α=0.05
HURST EXPONENT [0, 1]strongly persistent · H = 0.828
H = 0.828STRONGLY PERSISTENT
0
anti-persistent0.45
mean-reverting0.5
random walk0.55
persistent1
strongly trending
AUTOCORRELATION FUNCTION · ρ(k) for k=1..51 SIGNIFICANT LAG · k=1
k=1 ★-0.536k=2+0.196k=3-0.205k=4+0.134k=5-0.0490+1−1+0.41−0.41+ momentum (ρ > +0.41)− reversal (ρ < −0.41)noise (within band)±2/√n threshold
OLS TREND · t-STAT · [-5, +5]SIGNIFICANT @ 1% (|t|=9.49)
−5 reject−1.960 retain H₀+1.96+5 reject
REGIME CLASSIFICATIONMEAN-REVERTING · ρ(1) -0.54 + ADF rejectedfrom Hurst + ρ(1) joint diagnosis
PREDICTABILITY · score 1.00very high · strong structure|ρ(1)| + 2·|H − 0.5| heuristic
TREND SIGNIFICANCESIGNIFICANT @ 1% (|t|=9.49)α=0.05 critical |t|=1.96 · α=0.01 |t|=2.58
ρ(k) = lag-k sample autocorrelation · H = R/S Hurst exponent · t = OLS-trend t-statistic. Significance bands at ±2/√n approximate the 95% white-noise envelope. α=0.05 critical |t|=1.96; α=0.01 |t|=2.58.

§9 · Microstructure

24h volume (USD)
$293.69k
Open interest (USD)
$280.64k
Vol / OI (turnover)
1.05x
1h funding
0.001250%
Funding (annualised)
+10.95%/yr

§10 · Position sizing

Continuous Kelly (μ/σ²)
-10.000× leverage · optimal log-utility leverage
Half-Kelly
-5.000× · industry-standard conservative
Quarter-Kelly
-2.500×

§11 · Hourly return heatmap

24-hour signed Δln-r grid · green = up · red = down
HOURLY RETURN HEATMAP · n=24 bars · best 1.66% · worst -1.93% · typical |Δ| 0.59%MILD BEARISH -2.52%BEST+1.66%16hWORST-1.93%17hTYPICAL |Δ|0.59%mean absoluteCUMULATIVE-2.52%Σ signed ΔSTREAK↗ 2up-runASIA · 00-08 UTCμ -0.33% · Σ -2.64%EUROPE · 08-16 UTCμ -0.01% · Σ -0.04%US · 16-24 UTCμ +0.02% · Σ +0.17%CUMULATIVE Δ PATH · final -2.52%+0.59%-3.79%-0.82% · 13h-0.82% · 13h-0.82%13h0.30% · 14h0.30% · 14h0.30%14h-0.56% · 15h-0.56% · 15h-0.56%15h1.66% · 16h1.66% · 16h1.66%16h★ BEST-1.93% · 17h-1.93% · 17h-1.93%17h▼ WORST0.45% · 18h0.45% · 18h0.45%18h-0.28% · 19h-0.28% · 19h-0.28%19h0.01% · 20h0.01% · 20h0.01%20h0.53% · 21h0.53% · 21h0.53%21h-0.34% · 22h-0.34% · 22h-0.34%22h0.07% · 23h0.07% · 23h0.07%23h-1.29% · 00h-1.29% · 00h-1.29%00h-0.01% · 01h-0.01% · 01h-0.01%01h-0.11% · 02h-0.11% · 02h-0.11%02h0.50% · 03h0.50% · 03h0.50%03h-0.99% · 04h-0.99% · 04h-0.99%04h0.28% · 05h0.28% · 05h0.28%05h-0.53% · 06h-0.53% · 06h-0.53%06h-0.49% · 07h-0.49% · 07h-0.49%07h0.29% · 08h0.29% · 08h0.29%08h0.49% · 09h0.49% · 09h0.49%09h-1.02% · 10h-1.02% · 10h-1.02%10h0.40% · 11h0.40% · 11h0.40%11h0.87% · 12h0.87% · 12h0.87%12hTIME PATTERNUS-led (+0.17%)RUNSup max 2 · down max 3BREADTH50% up · 50% down
12 up bars · 12 down · best 1.66% · worst -1.93% · typical |Δ| 0.592%

§12 · Equity curve & underwater drawdown

Cumulative compounded return + running peak-to-trough
EQUITY & DRAWDOWN ANALYSIS · n=25 barsLOSS WITH MODERATE DD (-2.55%)FINAL-2.55%MAX DD-4.33%RECOVERYONGOING · 20 barsMAX RUN-UP+0.57%UNDERWATER23/25 (92%)STREAK↗ 2EQUITY CURVE · end 0.9745 · peak 1.0057 · range [0.9622, 1.0057]1.00570.9622break-even = 1★ PEAK 1.0057UNDERWATER DRAWDOWN · max -4.33% · moderate0%-4.33%▼ TROUGH -4.33%TOP DRAWDOWN PERIODS · 2 total#1 -4.33%bar 6-25 · 20 bars · ONGOING#2 -1.07%bar 2-4 · 3 bars · recoveredDD SEVERITYmoderate (max -4.33%)RECOVERYongoing · 20 barsTIME UNDER WATER92% of session · 23/25 bars
final equity 0.9745 (-2.55%) · max DD -4.33% · time-under-water 23/25 bars

§13 · Rolling-window statistics (w = 6 bars)

Rolling annualised Sharpe ratio · green positive · red negative
n=19 · +3 / −16 (16% positive) · μ=-19.59 · σ=17.13UNPROFITABLE STRATEGYLAST 12.11 (+1.85σ vs μ)41.9620.980.00-20.98-41.96μ = -19.59-11.22-11.22-4.63-4.63-8.47-8.475.775.77-27.25-27.2518.9018.90-33.45-33.45-26.37-26.37-29.80-29.80-30.83-30.83-41.96-41.96-35.61-35.61-24.91-24.91-37.69-37.69-24.70-24.70-25.14-25.14-25.46-25.46-21.57-21.5712.1112.11v > 0 · positivev < 0 · negativeμ mean lineμ ± σ bandlatest bar (outlined)
latest 12.114 · range [-41.96, 18.90] · μ -19.594 · positive Sharpe = excess-return-per-risk earned by buying-and-holding through this window
Rolling annualised volatility (%)
n=19 · μ=69.4231 · σ=24.6590 · range [33.7010, 115.7666] · R²=0.443▼ FALLING -43.24%σ EXTREME 35.52%LAST 65.7072115.766695.250274.733854.217433.7010μ = 69.4231max 115.7666min 33.7010dataMA(3)OLS R²=0.44μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
latest 65.71% · range [33.70%, 115.77%] · μ 69.42% · σ̂ scaled to annualised (×√8760)
Rolling lag-1 autocorrelation ρ(1)
n=19 · +0 / −19 (0% positive) · μ=-0.439 · σ=0.208MEAN-REVERSIONLAST -0.234 (+0.99σ vs μ)0.7450.3720.000-0.372-0.745μ = -0.439-0.724-0.724-0.745-0.745-0.736-0.736-0.582-0.582-0.265-0.265-0.500-0.500-0.147-0.147-0.251-0.251-0.330-0.330-0.250-0.250-0.423-0.423-0.414-0.414-0.705-0.705-0.607-0.607-0.623-0.623-0.152-0.152-0.252-0.252-0.403-0.403-0.234-0.234v > 0 · positivev < 0 · negativeμ mean lineμ ± σ bandlatest bar (outlined)
latest -0.234 · |ρ| > 0.3 ⇒ regime with persistence (ρ > 0) or reversal (ρ < 0) · |ρ| ≤ 0.1 = consistent with random walk

§14 · Hypothesis tests (α = 0.05)

Formal inference at 5% significance
3 of 6 REJECT · mixed evidence3 reject·3 pass·α = 0.05
𝒩

Jarque-Bera

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Δln-r ~ Normal(μ, σ²)

STATISTIC
0.6737
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.7140
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainednormality not rejected
ρ

Ljung-Box(h=5)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: No serial autocorrelation up to lag 5

STATISTIC
10.7693
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.0556
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedconsistent with white noise
Ψ

Dickey-Fuller (τ_μ)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: p has a unit root (non-stationary)

STATISTIC
-1.9939
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.2984
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedrandom-walk behaviour (crit ≈ -2.86)
±

Wald-Wolfowitz runs

REJECT H₀*

H₀: Sign sequence of Δ is random

STATISTIC
2.0871
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.0369
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p < α · rejection zonenon-random sign pattern (18 runs)
χ

KPSS (μ stationarity)

REJECT H₀**

H₀: p IS level-stationary

STATISTIC
0.8594
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.0051
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p < α · rejection zonenon-stationary (crit 0.463)
χ

Variance ratio q=3

REJECT H₀*

H₀: Δln-r is a random walk · VR = 1

STATISTIC
-2.1258
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.0335
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p < α · rejection zoneVR 0.353 → mean-reverting
Each row states an explicit null H₀, the test statistic, an approximated p-value, and the decision. REJECT means evidence against H₀. KPSS complements ADF (rejecting both ⇒ ambiguous; rejecting one ⇒ clean verdict).

§15 · Spectral analysis (DFT periodogram)

Power spectrum of Δln-r · ‖X̂(k)‖²/n
n=12 bins · noise floor μ=5.76e-5 · top T=2.18h (42.4%) · top-3 cover 75.9%STRONG CYCLE @ T≈2.2cumulative energy ↗ (2 bins above 2× noise)2.9e-42.2e-41.5e-47.3e-50.0e+0μ noise floor2× noise (significance)period 24.0 · power 1.16e-5 · 1.7% energyperiod 24.0 · power 1.16e-5 · 1.7% energyperiod 12.0 · power 1.65e-6 · 0.2% energyperiod 12.0 · power 1.65e-6 · 0.2% energyperiod 8.0 · power 7.93e-6 · 1.1% energyperiod 8.0 · power 7.93e-6 · 1.1% energyperiod 6.0 · power 3.30e-5 · 4.8% energyperiod 6.0 · power 3.30e-5 · 4.8% energyperiod 4.8 · power 2.83e-5 · 4.1% energyperiod 4.8 · power 2.83e-5 · 4.1% energyperiod 4.0 · power 1.86e-5 · 2.7% energyperiod 4.0 · power 1.86e-5 · 2.7% energyperiod 3.4 · power 1.28e-4 · 18.6% energyperiod 3.4 · power 1.28e-4 · 18.6% energyperiod 3.0 · power 2.38e-5 · 3.4% energyperiod 3.0 · power 2.38e-5 · 3.4% energyperiod 2.7 · power 3.59e-5 · 5.2% energyperiod 2.7 · power 3.59e-5 · 5.2% energyperiod 2.4 · power 1.03e-4 · 14.9% energyperiod 2.4 · power 1.03e-4 · 14.9% energyperiod 2.2 · power 2.93e-4 · 42.4% energyperiod 2.2 · power 2.93e-4 · 42.4% energyperiod 2.0 · power 5.50e-6 · 0.8% energyperiod 2.0 · power 5.50e-6 · 0.8% energy50% by T=2.4h#1 dominantT=2.18h#2T=3.43h#3T=2.40hT=2hT=3hT=4hT=6hT=8hT=12hT=16hT=24h← shorter cycle (high freq · Nyquist=½) · period T (bars per cycle) · longer cycle (low freq · 1/n) →#1 dominant#2 peak#3 peak> 2× noisenoiseμ floor2μ sig.cum energy
dominant period ≈ 2.18h (freq 0.458) · concentrates 42.4% of total energy · Σ|X̂|²/n = 6.913e-4

▸ Depth section using sovereign-store price series (5000 bars · effective 5257847 bars/year) — annualisation reflects native polling cadence, not upstream timeframes.

§16 · NOSTRADAMUS continuous quant — perp leverage & bootstrap MC

Continuous-price extension of the prediction-market quant module. Kelly growth on observed returns (Merton μ/σ² parametric vs argmax empirical), Monte-Carlo equity fan bootstrapped from the historical return distribution at quarter-Kelly leverage, and an annualized return decomposition. Sweep parameters in the simulator.

§17 · Continuous Kelly

Continuous-Kelly growth · g(f) = E[ln(1 + f·r)]
NO LONG EDGE · μ -0.000% per barparametric μ/σ² short edge (μ<0) · μ -0.000% · σ 0.03%
μ per barmean
-0.000%
σ per barvol
0.03%
Empirical f★argmax g(f)
0.00×
from observed distribution
Parametric f★μ/σ²
-18.42×
Merton continuous-time
Half-Kelly½ f★
0.00×
~⅔ of full growth, half the variance
Quarter-Kelly¼ f★
0.00×
industry default — survives model error
-0.00%0.02%0.05%0.07%0.10%0.0×1.6×3.2×4.8×6.4×8.0×leverage fraction fexpected log-growth per bar
g(f) empiricalf★ argmaxparametric f★
Maximum expected log-growth from leveraging the historical return distribution. Empirical f★ argmaxes the sample expectation; parametric f★ = μ/σ² is Merton's continuous-time optimum.

§18 · MC equity fan

Bootstrapped equity fan at 0.10× leverage
Median CAGR/bar -0.000% · annualized Sharpe -12.07400 paths × 720 bars · leverage 0.10× · bootstrap from 4999 observed returns
Sharpe / barμ/σ
-0.005
annualized -12.07
μ per barafter L
-0.000%
σ per barafter L
0.00%
VaR 95%5%
0.00%
per-bar worst-case
CVaR 95%ES
0.01%
mean tail loss
Max DD (median)MDD
-0.0%
0.95×0.97×0.99×1.01×1.03×1.05×0120240360480600720startbar #equity multiple
median25/75 band5/95 band
Median path with 25/75 and 5/95 percentile bands across 400 simulated careers. Bars resample with replacement from the observed return distribution — preserves fat tails the parametric model misses.

§19 · Annualized breakdown

Annualized return components
APR -705% · APY -100% · Sharpe -11.39σ ann 62% · Sortino -8.88 · n 4999
-1367%-1079%-791%-502%-214%74%-704.6%APR (simple)-99.9%APY (compound)61.8%Ann. vol σ-1139.2%Sharpe (ann)-887.5%Sortino (ann)
Simple APR vs compounded APY · annualized volatility · risk-adjusted Sharpe and Sortino. All scaled by √(periods/yr).

§20 · GARCH(1,1) volatility band

GARCH(1,1) · conditional vol envelope (±2σ)
GARCH persistence α+β = 0.980· σ̂ₜ = 1.001% · long-run σ = 2.236%
0.2800.2860.2920.2980.3040.310t-4999t-4166t-3333t-2500t-1666t-833t-0

Persistence near 1 ⇒ vol clusters strongly (slow mean reversion). Long-run σ is the unconditional target the conditional vol orbits. The ±2σ band reflects time-varying scale, unlike a flat-vol band.

Time-varying volatility band fitted to the price series. Persistence α+β > 0.98 means vol shocks decay slowly — recent moves stay relevant.

§∞ · Provenance & attestation

Upstream
api.hyperliquid.xyz
Snapshot fetched
2026-06-14 12:18:34 UTC
Snapshot age
5.1s
History points
25 hourly closes
Page rendered
2026-06-14 12:18:39 UTC
Storage policy
no persistence — fetched on every request
SHA-256 attestation
518cbd0a1d28ae0ce35c8522c9a84d9a2cd6d172b232f887d7676981e71687ee · deterministic hash of the source snapshot — proves this page was rendered from this exact data
Open data licence
CC0 / public domain · free to mirror, syndicate, analyse

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Also see: /arb opportunities · RSS feed

Market depth

▸ live order book · Hyperliquid perp
Depth within 1bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Depth within 5bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Depth within 10bp
$1.73K
bid $1.36K · ask $362
Depth within 50bp
$11.21K
bid $6.37K · ask $4.84K
Mid price
0.295880
(best bid + best ask) / 2
Spread
12.2bp
(bestAsk − bestBid) / mid
Imbalance (whole book)
-0.229
ask-heavy
Imbalance (top-5)
+0.157
bid-heavy top-of-book

Slippage scenarios

▸ live book walk · Hyperliquid perp

Simulating a market order at three notionals against the live book. Slippage = avg execution price vs. mid, in basis points. Worst fill = price of the deepest level touched. Live JSON: /api/asset/hl-0g/slippage?size=10000&side=buy

SideNotionalAvg fillSlippageWorst fillLevelsStatus
BUY$1.00K0.29621511.31bp0.2965604FILLED
BUY$10.00K0.29744752.94bp0.29837012FILLED
BUY$100.00K0.299133109.94bp0.30116020PARTIAL
SELL$1.00K0.2956976.18bp0.2956803FILLED
SELL$10.00K0.29478237.11bp0.29403013FILLED
SELL$100.00K0.29410859.90bp0.29181020PARTIAL

Funding carry

▸ LONGS PAY · shorts receive
Hourly funding
+1.250e-5
0.00125% / hr
Annualised APR
10.958%
hourly · 24 · 365.25
Long: days to 1% carry
33.3d
longs pay
Short: days to 1% carry
33.3d
shorts receive
SideDirectionAnnualised carryDays → 1%Days → 10%
LONGPAY-10.958%33.3d333.3d
SHORTRECEIVE10.958%33.3d333.3d

/api/asset/hl-0g/carry · same metrics, JSON

Volume profile

▸ real volume · Hyperliquid candlesstep $ 1 · 25 records
Price binBarsVolumeDistribution
$0.000000–$1.0000★25$1.01M

★ POC = Point of Control (highest-volume bin). Live JSON: /api/asset/hl-0g/volprofile?priceStep=1

Order flow

▸ BID-LEAN · +0.262 · Hyperliquid candles
Bars (buy / sell)
12 / 12
1 unclassified
Buy weight
$600.22K
real volume
Sell weight
$351.36K
real volume
Net delta
$248.85K
buyers net
Imbalance
26.15%
(buy − sell) / (buy + sell)
Toxicity (VPIN)
26.2%
two-sided / balanced
Impact (|Δp|/vol)
—
needs real volume

Sparkline = cumulative delta over the 25-record window./api/asset/hl-0g/flow?rollingWindow=30

Cascade clusters

▸ DOWN · 5 found · deepest 1.92% · Hyperliquid candles

Price-only proxy for forced-unwind clusters. No exchange liquidation feed is wired — read each row as a candidate event, not a confirmed liquidation.

#WindowDurationPeak → TroughDrawdownBars
#12026-06-13 17:00:00Z2.0h0.305460→0.2996101.915%3
#22026-06-14 04:00:00Z4.0h0.298180→0.2930701.714%5
#32026-06-14 00:00:00Z2.0h0.301740→0.2967001.670%3

/api/asset/hl-0g/cascades?windowMs=10800000&minDrawdownPct=0.005 · full list + parameters in JSON

Risk metrics

▸ sovereign store · 5,000 barsperiods/year ≈ 5.26M
Realized vol (annualised)
61.85%
σ per bar = 0.000270
Mean return (annualised)
-704.60%
μ per bar = -0.000001
Sharpe (rf=0)
-11.39
annualised; risk-free assumed zero
Max drawdown
2.13%
peak 0.30 → trough 0.29 over 4203 bars

/api/asset/hl-0g/risk · same metrics, JSON