HYPERLIQUID · PERPETUAL FUTURES

0G

0G-USD perpetual · 24/7 trading on Hyperliquid

▸ Advanced metrics · M2M bundle

hyperliquid · perp-0g · fresh · feed 2s old
24h sparkline · 60 pts▼ -1.11%
realized vol (ann.)
102.26%
max drawdown
1.63%
sharpe
22.27
ulcer index
0.79%
RMS drawdown
pain index
0.62%
mean drawdown
mod. VaR 95%
0.04%
Cornish-Fisher
martin ratio
2868.46
ret / ulcer
CDaR 95%
1.49%
cond. drawdown
gain/pain
1.07
Σgain / Σ|loss|
sterling
1529.63
ret / CDaR
omega (θ=0)
1.07
upside/downside
roll spread
0.0 bps
implied (price-only)
bars used
2000
store
spread
—
24h Δ
-1.11%
flow lean
—
carry
longs_pay
10.95%
signalNEUTRALconfidence 40%
  • 24h change -1.11%
  • funding: longs pay — perp shorts get paid to wait
  • mark cheap vs HL oracle by 20.1bps — long bias
Same bundle via M2M API: /api/m2m/hl-0G/bundle · venue execution: hyperliquid →
LIVEPOLL0SRCFRESH1.8s⏱--:--:-- UTC8NEXT8.0sUP0s--:--HIST0/30
▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC FRESH·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC FRESH·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·
MARK · live
$0.296
24h Δ · live
-1.11%
24h vol · live
$0.3M
0G · live 24h price
n=25 · μ=0.2976 · σ=0.0034 · range [0.2924, 0.3055] · R²=0.733▼ FALLING -2.21%σ NORMAL 1.16%LAST 0.29540.30550.30220.29890.29560.2924μ = 0.2976max 0.3055min 0.2924dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.73μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxminlive endpoint
25 closes · last $0.30
Funding direction · live
Long fee 48.1%Short fee 51.9%SHORT FEE51.9%
Σ = 0.0%
Σ-sides total = 0.00% (100.00pp arb gap)
H(p) entropy = 0.999 / 1.00 bits (100%) · max uncertainty (~50/50)
Long fee
48.1%▬ +0.00pp
Short fee
51.9%▬ +0.00pp
1h funding 0.001250% · longs pay
Hourly contract volume · live
n=25 · Σ=1,135,584 · μ=45423.4 · σ=53411.9 · CV=1.18BURSTY · concentratedcumulative energy ↗ · 50% by h=12052,390104,780157,170209,560μ = 45423209,56050%h1h5h9h13h17h21h25#1 peak#2-3> μactivequietμ linecum energy
peak 209560 contracts
Live numerics · pulse on poll
LIVE NUMERICS9 metrics·POLL 0
⏱snapshot age
1.8s
$mark $
$0.2958
$mid $
$0.2958
◉prev-day close
$0.2991
Δ24h Δ %
-1.108%
$24h vol $
$332.72k
◐open interest $
$289.66k
%funding (1h)
0.001250%
%funding (yr)
+10.95%/yr

§1 · 24h time-series

Close price · hourly
n=25 · μ=0.2976 · σ=0.0034 · range [0.2924, 0.3055] · R²=0.733▼ FALLING -2.21%σ NORMAL 1.16%LAST 0.29540.30550.30220.29890.29560.2924μ = 0.2976max 0.3055min 0.2924dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.73μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
mark $0.2958 · 24h -1.11% · range $[0.2924, 0.3055]
OHLC candles · hourly
n=25 · up 12 · down 13 (48% up) · range [0.2915, 0.3114] · σ=0.0034 · CV=0.01 · bodyµ=47%BEARISH -1.93%CLOSE 0.2954 vs OPEN 0.3012 (-1.93%)&#9660; CLOSE 0.29540.31140.30640.30150.29650.2915μ close = 0.2976O0.301 H0.302 L0.299 C0.302 (+0.29%)O0.301 H0.302 L0.299 C0.302 (+0.29%)O0.302 H0.303 L0.300 C0.300 (-0.61%)O0.302 H0.303 L0.300 C0.300 (-0.61%)O0.300 H0.309 L0.298 C0.305 (+1.70%)O0.300 H0.309 L0.298 C0.305 (+1.70%)-1.9%O0.306 H0.306 L0.300 C0.300 (-1.94%)O0.306 H0.306 L0.300 C0.300 (-1.94%)O0.300 H0.302 L0.300 C0.301 (+0.34%)O0.300 H0.302 L0.300 C0.301 (+0.34%)O0.301 H0.301 L0.300 C0.300 (-0.31%)O0.301 H0.301 L0.300 C0.300 (-0.31%)O0.300 H0.300 L0.300 C0.300 (+0.08%)O0.300 H0.300 L0.300 C0.300 (+0.08%)O0.300 H0.302 L0.299 C0.302 (+0.44%)O0.300 H0.302 L0.299 C0.302 (+0.44%)O0.302 H0.311 L0.300 C0.301 (-0.34%)O0.302 H0.311 L0.300 C0.301 (-0.34%)O0.301 H0.301 L0.299 C0.301 (+0.09%)O0.301 H0.301 L0.299 C0.301 (+0.09%)O0.301 H0.301 L0.297 C0.297 (-1.25%)O0.301 H0.301 L0.297 C0.297 (-1.25%)O0.297 H0.299 L0.296 C0.297 (-0.01%)O0.297 H0.299 L0.296 C0.297 (-0.01%)O0.297 H0.298 L0.296 C0.297 (-0.14%)O0.297 H0.298 L0.296 C0.297 (-0.14%)O0.297 H0.303 L0.296 C0.298 (+0.40%)O0.297 H0.303 L0.296 C0.298 (+0.40%)O0.298 H0.298 L0.295 C0.295 (-1.04%)O0.298 H0.298 L0.295 C0.295 (-1.04%)O0.295 H0.297 L0.293 C0.296 (+0.31%)O0.295 H0.297 L0.293 C0.296 (+0.31%)O0.297 H0.298 L0.294 C0.294 (-0.70%)O0.297 H0.298 L0.294 C0.294 (-0.70%)O0.294 H0.295 L0.293 C0.293 (-0.49%)O0.294 H0.295 L0.293 C0.293 (-0.49%)O0.293 H0.295 L0.293 C0.294 (+0.24%)O0.293 H0.295 L0.293 C0.294 (+0.24%)O0.294 H0.296 L0.293 C0.295 (+0.49%)O0.294 H0.296 L0.293 C0.295 (+0.49%)O0.295 H0.295 L0.292 C0.292 (-1.06%)O0.295 H0.295 L0.292 C0.292 (-1.06%)O0.292 H0.294 L0.292 C0.294 (+0.48%)O0.292 H0.294 L0.292 C0.294 (+0.48%)O0.294 H0.296 L0.293 C0.293 (-0.21%)O0.294 H0.296 L0.293 C0.293 (-0.21%)O0.293 H0.301 L0.292 C0.297 (+1.42%)O0.293 H0.301 L0.292 C0.297 (+1.42%)O0.297 H0.298 L0.295 C0.295 (-0.57%)O0.297 H0.298 L0.295 C0.295 (-0.57%)#1#5#9#13#17#21#25up bar (C≥O)down bar (C<O)MA(5) closeμ closedoji (~no body)biggest body
25 bars
Hourly volume (base units)
n=25 · Σ=1,135,584 · μ=45423.4 · σ=53411.9 · CV=1.18BURSTY · concentratedcumulative energy &nearr; · 50% by h=12052,390104,780157,170209,560μ = 4542329,892 · 14.3% peak29,892 · 14.3% peak22,391 · 10.7% peak22,391 · 10.7% peak209,560209,560 · 100.0% peak209,560 · 100.0% peak42,421 · 20.2% peak42,421 · 20.2% peak17,738 · 8.5% peak17,738 · 8.5% peak24,037 · 11.5% peak24,037 · 11.5% peak21,884 · 10.4% peak21,884 · 10.4% peak18,744 · 8.9% peak18,744 · 8.9% peak144,141 · 68.8% peak144,141 · 68.8% peak14,407 · 6.9% peak14,407 · 6.9% peak14,546 · 6.9% peak14,546 · 6.9% peak12,948 · 6.2% peak12,948 · 6.2% peak8,396 · 4.0% peak8,396 · 4.0% peak150,506 · 71.8% peak150,506 · 71.8% peak21,531 · 10.3% peak21,531 · 10.3% peak48,560 · 23.2% peak48,560 · 23.2% peak16,336 · 7.8% peak16,336 · 7.8% peak11,395 · 5.4% peak11,395 · 5.4% peak20,579 · 9.8% peak20,579 · 9.8% peak44,529 · 21.2% peak44,529 · 21.2% peak21,347 · 10.2% peak21,347 · 10.2% peak18,528 · 8.8% peak18,528 · 8.8% peak10,551 · 5.0% peak10,551 · 5.0% peak130,159 · 62.1% peak130,159 · 62.1% peak60,458 · 28.8% peak60,458 · 28.8% peak50%#1#5#9#13#17#21#25#1 peak#2-3> μactivequietμ linecum energy
Σ vol 1135584 · peak 209560 · CV 1.18

§2 · Returns distribution (log-returns)

Histogram of rₜ = ln(pₜ/pₜ₋₁)
n=24 · 12 bins · μ=-0.0007 · σ=0.0076 · skew=0.11 (symmetric) · kurt=0.13 (mesokurtic)43210 1-178.38bpbin -178.38bp · n=1 · 25.0% peakbin -178.38bp · n=1 · 25.0% peak-148.40bp 1-118.43bpbin -118.43bp · n=1 · 25.0% peakbin -118.43bp · n=1 · 25.0% peak 2-88.45bpbin -88.45bp · n=2 · 50.0% peakbin -88.45bp · n=2 · 50.0% peak 4-58.47bpbin -58.47bp · n=4 · 100.0% peakbin -58.47bp · n=4 · 100.0% peak 3-28.49bpbin -28.49bp · n=3 · 75.0% peakbin -28.49bp · n=3 · 75.0% peak 41.49bpbin 1.49bp · n=4 · 100.0% peakbin 1.49bp · n=4 · 100.0% peak 431.47bpbin 31.47bp · n=4 · 100.0% peakbin 31.47bp · n=4 · 100.0% peak 361.45bpbin 61.45bp · n=3 · 75.0% peakbin 61.45bp · n=3 · 75.0% peak91.43bp121.41bp 2151.38bpbin 151.38bp · n=2 · 50.0% peakbin 151.38bp · n=2 · 50.0% peakμΔ < 0 · loss barsΔ ≈ 0 · flatΔ > 0 · gain barsN(μ,σ²) referenceμ line · ±σ band shaded
n=24 · positive 11 · negative 13
Q-Q plot · standardised rₜ vs N(0,1)
n=24 · skew=-0.02 · kurt=0.38 · near 21 / mid 3 / far 0 · OLS slope=1.01 intercept=-0.00MATCHES NORMAL · WELL-BEHAVEDUPPER TAIL NORMALLOWER TAIL NORMAL-3σ-3σ-2σ-2σ-1σ-1σ+0σ+0σ+1σ+1σ+2σ+2σ+3σ+3σsample ↓marginal: sample bars + theoretical N(0,1) curve →theoretical Φ⁻¹(p) →↑ sample z-quantile|Δ| < 0.3σ · on the line|Δ| < 1σ · moderate|Δ| ≥ 1σ · outliery = x refOLS fit

§3 · Spot quote

Mark price
$0.2958
Mid price
$0.2958
24h change
-1.11%
Mark–mid spread
0.00 bps
Prev-day close
$0.2991

§4 · Sample moments (prices)

Descriptive statistics · 5-number summary · shape diagnostics
SAMPLE MOMENTS · N=25APPROXIMATELY NORMAL · WELL-BEHAVED
μ MEAN0.2976$95% CI: [0.2963$, 0.2990$]
σ STD DEV0.0034$σ² = 0.118×10⁻⁴ · CV = 1.16%
med MEDIAN0.2971$Q₁ 0.2952$ · Q₃ 0.3004$
FIVE-NUMBER SUMMARY · BOX PLOTrange 0.0131$ · IQR 0.0052$ (1.349σ→0.0046$)
min 0.2924$Q₁ 0.2952$med 0.2971$Q₃ 0.3004$max 0.3055$μ
SKEWNESS · G₁0.266approximately symmetric
−3−10+1+3
EXCESS KURTOSIS · G₂-0.939mesokurtic · normal-like
−30+2+4+6
μ ↔ medianμ > med · right-tailed|μ−med| / σ = 0.16
σ × 1.349 ↔ IQRconsistent with normalratio = 0.89
range ↔ σconcentrated (range < 4σ)range / σ = 3.81
μ = mean · σ = standard deviation · CV = coefficient of variation. Skew (G₁): >0 right-skewed. Kurt (G₂, excess): >0 leptokurtic. 95% CI = μ ± 1.96·SE.

§5 · Returns analytics (log-returns)

Risk-adjusted performance · log-returns
RETURNS · RISK-ADJUSTEDUNPROFITABLE · SR=-10.96
μᵣ MEAN / h-0.093167%drift is negative per h · |μ|/σ = 0.117
σᵣ STD / h0.795505%σ²ᵣ = 0.633×10⁻⁴ · CV = 8.54×
σ ANNUALISED74.46%/yrscaled by √8760 (hourly→yearly) · 0.796%/h base
RISK-ADJUSTED PERFORMANCEhigher = better edge per unit risk
SHARPE (annualised)-10.96negative edge
-2-10+1+2+3+4
SORTINO (annualised)-10.59downside drag
-2-10+1+2+3+4
CALMAR (return / max-DD)-100.00drawdown overwhelms returns
-20+2+4+6
RETURN-DISTRIBUTION SHAPE|skew| < 0.5 ≈ symmetric · |kurt| < 1 ≈ mesokurtic
SKEWNESS · G₁-0.02approximately symmetric
-3-10+1+3
EXCESS KURTOSIS · G₂0.77mesokurtic · normal-like tails
-30+2+4+6
SORTINO vs SHARPEdownside vol < total vol · favourableSoR / SR = 0.97
CALMAR · DD CONTROLdrawdown > returns · adverseCR = -100.00
EXPECTED EDGE-816.14%/yr driftμ × 8760 = annualised expectation
rₜ = ln(pₜ/pₜ₋₁). σ × √8760 = annualised. Sharpe = μ/σ scaled; Sortino uses downside-only vol; Calmar = annual return / max drawdown.

§6 · Risk metrics

Tail risk + drawdown · downside diagnostics
TAIL & DRAWDOWN RISKHIGH · 95% VaR 1.25%
VaR₉₅ (h)1.247%5% prob of larger adverse h move
VaR₉₉ (h)1.785%1% prob · extreme-tail threshold
ES₉₅ (CVaR)1.611%expected loss given 5% tail event
MAX DRAWDOWN4.29%18h from peak to trough
TAIL-RISK LADDER (h losses)larger negative = worse · markers show severity
0 · no lossVaR₉₅−1.247%VaR₉₉−1.785%ES₉₅−1.611%worst tail ←→ zero loss
MAX DRAWDOWN PROFILEmoderate drawdown · 18h duration
PEAK30.55$
−4.29% drawdown over 18h
29.24$TROUGH
ES / VaR · TAIL THICKNESSmild tail heaviness|ES₉₅| / |VaR₉₅| = 1.29× (normal ≈ 1.25)
VaR₉₉ / VaR₉₅ · CONCENTRATIONmoderate extreme-tail concentrationratio = 1.43× (normal ≈ 1.41)
DRAWDOWN · CAPITAL DURATIONmoderate drawdownrecovery needed: +4.48% (compounding)
VaR = quantile loss · ES (CVaR) = expected loss conditional on tail · DD = peak-to-trough decline. Under normality ES₉₅/VaR₉₅ ≈ 1.25; ratio > 1.5 ⇒ fat-tail regime.

§7 · Technicals

RSI(14)
44.8 · neutral
Bollinger %B
0.397 · within band
Bollinger upper
$0.3024
Bollinger MA
$0.2966
Bollinger lower
$0.2908

§8 · Time-series structure

Regime & autocorrelation diagnostics
TIME-SERIES STRUCTUREREGIME: MEAN-REVERTING · ρ(1) -0.57 + ADF rejected
ρ(1) AUTOCORR-0.566negative · reversal
ρ(2) AUTOCORR+0.234lag-2 not significant
H · HURST EXPONENT0.615persistent
OLS TREND · t-STAT-7.940significant @ α=0.05
HURST EXPONENT [0, 1]persistent · H = 0.615
H = 0.615PERSISTENT
0
anti-persistent0.45
mean-reverting0.5
random walk0.55
persistent1
strongly trending
AUTOCORRELATION FUNCTION · ρ(k) for k=1..51 SIGNIFICANT LAG · k=1
k=1 ★-0.566k=2+0.234k=3-0.208k=4+0.084k=5+0.0340+1−1+0.41−0.41+ momentum (ρ > +0.41)− reversal (ρ < −0.41)noise (within band)±2/√n threshold
OLS TREND · t-STAT · [-5, +5]SIGNIFICANT @ 1% (|t|=7.94)
−5 reject−1.960 retain H₀+1.96+5 reject
REGIME CLASSIFICATIONMEAN-REVERTING · ρ(1) -0.57 + ADF rejectedfrom Hurst + ρ(1) joint diagnosis
PREDICTABILITY · score 0.80very high · strong structure|ρ(1)| + 2·|H − 0.5| heuristic
TREND SIGNIFICANCESIGNIFICANT @ 1% (|t|=7.94)α=0.05 critical |t|=1.96 · α=0.01 |t|=2.58
ρ(k) = lag-k sample autocorrelation · H = R/S Hurst exponent · t = OLS-trend t-statistic. Significance bands at ±2/√n approximate the 95% white-noise envelope. α=0.05 critical |t|=1.96; α=0.01 |t|=2.58.

§9 · Microstructure

24h volume (USD)
$332.72k
Open interest (USD)
$289.66k
Vol / OI (turnover)
1.15x
1h funding
0.001250%
Funding (annualised)
+10.95%/yr

§10 · Position sizing

Continuous Kelly (μ/σ²)
-10.000× leverage · optimal log-utility leverage
Half-Kelly
-5.000× · industry-standard conservative
Quarter-Kelly
-2.500×

§11 · Hourly return heatmap

24-hour signed Δln-r grid · green = up · red = down
HOURLY RETURN HEATMAP · n=24 bars · best 1.66% · worst -1.93% · typical |Δ| 0.60%MILD BEARISH -2.24%BEST+1.66%16hWORST-1.93%17hTYPICAL |Δ|0.60%mean absoluteCUMULATIVE-2.24%Σ signed ΔSTREAK↘ 1down-runASIA · 00-08 UTCμ -0.33% · Σ -2.64%EUROPE · 08-16 UTCμ +0.03% · Σ +0.24%US · 16-24 UTCμ +0.02% · Σ +0.17%CUMULATIVE Δ PATH · final -2.24%+1.11%-3.28%-0.56% · 15h-0.56% · 15h-0.56%15h1.66% · 16h1.66% · 16h1.66%16h★ BEST-1.93% · 17h-1.93% · 17h-1.93%17h▼ WORST0.45% · 18h0.45% · 18h0.45%18h-0.28% · 19h-0.28% · 19h-0.28%19h0.01% · 20h0.01% · 20h0.01%20h0.53% · 21h0.53% · 21h0.53%21h-0.34% · 22h-0.34% · 22h-0.34%22h0.07% · 23h0.07% · 23h0.07%23h-1.29% · 00h-1.29% · 00h-1.29%00h-0.01% · 01h-0.01% · 01h-0.01%01h-0.11% · 02h-0.11% · 02h-0.11%02h0.50% · 03h0.50% · 03h0.50%03h-0.99% · 04h-0.99% · 04h-0.99%04h0.28% · 05h0.28% · 05h0.28%05h-0.53% · 06h-0.53% · 06h-0.53%06h-0.49% · 07h-0.49% · 07h-0.49%07h0.29% · 08h0.29% · 08h0.29%08h0.49% · 09h0.49% · 09h0.49%09h-1.02% · 10h-1.02% · 10h-1.02%10h0.40% · 11h0.40% · 11h0.40%11h-0.17% · 12h-0.17% · 12h-0.17%12h1.38% · 13h1.38% · 13h1.38%13h-0.57% · 14h-0.57% · 14h-0.57%14hTIME PATTERNEurope-led (+0.24%)RUNSup max 2 · down max 3BREADTH46% up · 54% down
11 up bars · 13 down · best 1.66% · worst -1.93% · typical |Δ| 0.598%

§12 · Equity curve & underwater drawdown

Cumulative compounded return + running peak-to-trough
EQUITY & DRAWDOWN ANALYSIS · n=25 barsLOSS WITH MODERATE DD (-2.28%)FINAL-2.28%MAX DD-4.33%RECOVERYONGOING · 22 barsMAX RUN-UP+1.10%UNDERWATER23/25 (92%)STREAK↘ 1EQUITY CURVE · end 0.9772 · peak 1.0110 · range [0.9672, 1.0110]1.01100.9672break-even = 1★ PEAK 1.0110UNDERWATER DRAWDOWN · max -4.33% · moderate0%-4.33%▼ TROUGH -4.33%TOP DRAWDOWN PERIODS · 2 total#1 -4.33%bar 4-25 · 22 bars · ONGOING#2 -0.56%bar 2-2 · 1 bars · recoveredDD SEVERITYmoderate (max -4.33%)RECOVERYongoing · 22 barsTIME UNDER WATER92% of session · 23/25 bars
final equity 0.9772 (-2.28%) · max DD -4.33% · time-under-water 23/25 bars

§13 · Rolling-window statistics (w = 6 bars)

Rolling annualised Sharpe ratio · green positive · red negative
n=19 · +4 / −15 (21% positive) · μ=-18.17 · σ=19.71UNPROFITABLE STRATEGYLAST 9.31 (+1.39σ vs μ)41.9620.980.00-20.98-41.96μ = -18.17-8.47-8.475.775.77-27.25-27.2518.9018.90-33.45-33.45-26.37-26.37-29.80-29.80-30.83-30.83-41.96-41.96-35.61-35.61-24.91-24.91-37.69-37.69-24.70-24.70-25.14-25.14-25.46-25.46-21.57-21.57-13.05-13.0527.0127.019.319.31v > 0 · positivev < 0 · negativeμ mean lineμ ± σ bandlatest bar (outlined)
latest 9.311 · range [-41.96, 27.01] · μ -18.172 · positive Sharpe = excess-return-per-risk earned by buying-and-holding through this window
Rolling annualised volatility (%)
n=19 · μ=64.9744 · σ=19.6019 · range [33.7010, 111.0286] · R²=0.114▼ FALLING -28.10%σ EXTREME 30.17%LAST 79.8187111.028691.696772.364853.032933.7010μ = 64.9744max 111.0286min 33.7010dataMA(3)OLS R²=0.11μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
latest 79.82% · range [33.70%, 111.03%] · μ 64.97% · σ̂ scaled to annualised (×√8760)
Rolling lag-1 autocorrelation ρ(1)
n=19 · +0 / −19 (0% positive) · μ=-0.426 · σ=0.183MEAN-REVERSIONLAST -0.562 (-0.75σ vs μ)0.7360.3680.000-0.368-0.736μ = -0.426-0.736-0.736-0.582-0.582-0.265-0.265-0.500-0.500-0.147-0.147-0.251-0.251-0.330-0.330-0.250-0.250-0.423-0.423-0.414-0.414-0.705-0.705-0.607-0.607-0.623-0.623-0.152-0.152-0.252-0.252-0.403-0.403-0.554-0.554-0.334-0.334-0.562-0.562v > 0 · positivev < 0 · negativeμ mean lineμ ± σ bandlatest bar (outlined)
latest -0.562 · |ρ| > 0.3 ⇒ regime with persistence (ρ > 0) or reversal (ρ < 0) · |ρ| ≤ 0.1 = consistent with random walk

§14 · Hypothesis tests (α = 0.05)

Formal inference at 5% significance
4 of 6 REJECT · mixed evidence4 reject·2 pass·α = 0.05
𝒩

Jarque-Bera

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Δln-r ~ Normal(μ, σ²)

STATISTIC
0.5939
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.7431
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainednormality not rejected
ρ

Ljung-Box(h=5)

REJECT H₀*

H₀: No serial autocorrelation up to lag 5

STATISTIC
11.7647
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.0378
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p < α · rejection zoneserial dependence detected
Ψ

Dickey-Fuller (τ_μ)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: p has a unit root (non-stationary)

STATISTIC
-1.9439
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.3220
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedrandom-walk behaviour (crit ≈ -2.86)
±

Wald-Wolfowitz runs

REJECT H₀*

H₀: Sign sequence of Δ is random

STATISTIC
2.5579
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.0105
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p < α · rejection zonenon-random sign pattern (19 runs)
χ

KPSS (μ stationarity)

REJECT H₀**

H₀: p IS level-stationary

STATISTIC
0.8126
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.0066
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p < α · rejection zonenon-stationary (crit 0.463)
χ

Variance ratio q=3

REJECT H₀*

H₀: Δln-r is a random walk · VR = 1

STATISTIC
-2.1018
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.0356
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p < α · rejection zoneVR 0.360 → mean-reverting
Each row states an explicit null H₀, the test statistic, an approximated p-value, and the decision. REJECT means evidence against H₀. KPSS complements ADF (rejecting both ⇒ ambiguous; rejecting one ⇒ clean verdict).

§15 · Spectral analysis (DFT periodogram)

Power spectrum of Δln-r · ‖X̂(k)‖²/n
n=12 bins · noise floor μ=6.22e-5 · top T=2.40h (26.3%) · top-3 cover 64.1%BROADBAND · 3 CYCLEScumulative energy ↗ (3 bins above 2× noise)2.0e-41.5e-49.8e-54.9e-50.0e+0μ noise floor2× noise (significance)period 24.0 · power 1.70e-5 · 2.3% energyperiod 24.0 · power 1.70e-5 · 2.3% energyperiod 12.0 · power 2.78e-6 · 0.4% energyperiod 12.0 · power 2.78e-6 · 0.4% energyperiod 8.0 · power 1.69e-5 · 2.3% energyperiod 8.0 · power 1.69e-5 · 2.3% energyperiod 6.0 · power 3.45e-5 · 4.6% energyperiod 6.0 · power 3.45e-5 · 4.6% energyperiod 4.8 · power 2.54e-5 · 3.4% energyperiod 4.8 · power 2.54e-5 · 3.4% energyperiod 4.0 · power 1.59e-5 · 2.1% energyperiod 4.0 · power 1.59e-5 · 2.1% energyperiod 3.4 · power 1.12e-4 · 14.9% energyperiod 3.4 · power 1.12e-4 · 14.9% energyperiod 3.0 · power 7.00e-6 · 0.9% energyperiod 3.0 · power 7.00e-6 · 0.9% energyperiod 2.7 · power 1.47e-4 · 19.7% energyperiod 2.7 · power 1.47e-4 · 19.7% energyperiod 2.4 · power 1.96e-4 · 26.3% energyperiod 2.4 · power 1.96e-4 · 26.3% energyperiod 2.2 · power 1.35e-4 · 18.1% energyperiod 2.2 · power 1.35e-4 · 18.1% energyperiod 2.0 · power 3.64e-5 · 4.9% energyperiod 2.0 · power 3.64e-5 · 4.9% energy50% by T=2.7h#1 dominantT=2.40h#2T=2.67h#3T=2.18hT=2hT=3hT=4hT=6hT=8hT=12hT=16hT=24h← shorter cycle (high freq · Nyquist=½) · period T (bars per cycle) · longer cycle (low freq · 1/n) →#1 dominant#2 peak#3 peak> 2× noisenoiseμ floor2μ sig.cum energy
dominant period ≈ 2.40h (freq 0.417) · concentrates 26.3% of total energy · Σ|X̂|²/n = 7.459e-4

▸ Depth section using sovereign-store price series (5000 bars · effective 5257847 bars/year) — annualisation reflects native polling cadence, not upstream timeframes.

§16 · NOSTRADAMUS continuous quant — perp leverage & bootstrap MC

Continuous-price extension of the prediction-market quant module. Kelly growth on observed returns (Merton μ/σ² parametric vs argmax empirical), Monte-Carlo equity fan bootstrapped from the historical return distribution at quarter-Kelly leverage, and an annualized return decomposition. Sweep parameters in the simulator.

§17 · Continuous Kelly

Continuous-Kelly growth · g(f) = E[ln(1 + f·r)]
NO LONG EDGE · μ -0.000% per barparametric μ/σ² -7.07× · μ -0.000% · σ 0.04%
μ per barmean
-0.000%
σ per barvol
0.04%
Empirical f★argmax g(f)
0.00×
from observed distribution
Parametric f★μ/σ²
-7.07×
Merton continuous-time
Half-Kelly½ f★
0.00×
~⅔ of full growth, half the variance
Quarter-Kelly¼ f★
0.00×
industry default — survives model error
-0.00%0.02%0.05%0.07%0.10%0.0×1.6×3.2×4.8×6.4×8.0×leverage fraction fexpected log-growth per bar
g(f) empiricalf★ argmaxparametric f★
Maximum expected log-growth from leveraging the historical return distribution. Empirical f★ argmaxes the sample expectation; parametric f★ = μ/σ² is Merton's continuous-time optimum.

§18 · MC equity fan

Bootstrapped equity fan at 0.10× leverage
Median CAGR/bar -0.000% · annualized Sharpe -3.19400 paths × 720 bars · leverage 0.10× · bootstrap from 4999 observed returns
Sharpe / barμ/σ
-0.001
annualized -3.19
μ per barafter L
-0.000%
σ per barafter L
0.00%
VaR 95%5%
0.00%
per-bar worst-case
CVaR 95%ES
0.01%
mean tail loss
Max DD (median)MDD
-0.0%
0.95×0.97×0.99×1.01×1.03×1.05×0120240360480600720startbar #equity multiple
median25/75 band5/95 band
Median path with 25/75 and 5/95 percentile bands across 400 simulated careers. Bars resample with replacement from the observed return distribution — preserves fat tails the parametric model misses.

§19 · Annualized breakdown

Annualized return components
APR -479% · APY -99% · Sharpe -5.82σ ann 82% · Sortino -5.19 · n 4999
-698%-539%-380%-220%-61%99%-479.1%APR (simple)-99.4%APY (compound)82.3%Ann. vol σ-582.0%Sharpe (ann)-519.2%Sortino (ann)
Simple APR vs compounded APY · annualized volatility · risk-adjusted Sharpe and Sortino. All scaled by √(periods/yr).

§20 · GARCH(1,1) volatility band

GARCH(1,1) · conditional vol envelope (±2σ)
GARCH persistence α+β = 0.980· σ̂ₜ = 1.000% · long-run σ = 2.236%
0.2800.2860.2920.2980.3050.311t-4999t-4166t-3333t-2500t-1666t-833t-0

Persistence near 1 ⇒ vol clusters strongly (slow mean reversion). Long-run σ is the unconditional target the conditional vol orbits. The ±2σ band reflects time-varying scale, unlike a flat-vol band.

Time-varying volatility band fitted to the price series. Persistence α+β > 0.98 means vol shocks decay slowly — recent moves stay relevant.

§∞ · Provenance & attestation

Upstream
api.hyperliquid.xyz
Snapshot fetched
2026-06-14 14:30:38 UTC
Snapshot age
1.8s
History points
25 hourly closes
Page rendered
2026-06-14 14:30:39 UTC
Storage policy
no persistence — fetched on every request
SHA-256 attestation
e2e004255583888ddd67513da2f5ad66ec3db7a387d25199cd55b4ecece7ed14 · deterministic hash of the source snapshot — proves this page was rendered from this exact data
Open data licence
CC0 / public domain · free to mirror, syndicate, analyse

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Also see: /arb opportunities · RSS feed

Market depth

▸ live order book · Hyperliquid perp
Depth within 1bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Depth within 5bp
$1.96K
bid $1.01K · ask $953
Depth within 10bp
$4.78K
bid $2.39K · ask $2.38K
Depth within 50bp
$16.14K
bid $8.17K · ask $7.97K
Mid price
0.295805
(best bid + best ask) / 2
Spread
7.1bp
(bestAsk − bestBid) / mid
Imbalance (whole book)
-0.311
ask-heavy
Imbalance (top-5)
-0.258
ask-heavy top-of-book

Slippage scenarios

▸ live book walk · Hyperliquid perp

Simulating a market order at three notionals against the live book. Slippage = avg execution price vs. mid, in basis points. Worst fill = price of the deepest level touched. Live JSON: /api/asset/hl-0G/slippage?size=10000&side=buy

SideNotionalAvg fillSlippageWorst fillLevelsStatus
BUY$1.00K0.2959213.93bp0.2960803FILLED
BUY$10.00K0.29676432.42bp0.29783010FILLED
BUY$100.00K0.301329186.76bp0.30580020PARTIAL
SELL$1.00K0.2956943.77bp0.2956902FILLED
SELL$10.00K0.29495628.72bp0.29392014FILLED
SELL$100.00K0.29313090.44bp0.29143020PARTIAL

Funding carry

▸ LONGS PAY · shorts receive
Hourly funding
+1.250e-5
0.00125% / hr
Annualised APR
10.958%
hourly · 24 · 365.25
Long: days to 1% carry
33.3d
longs pay
Short: days to 1% carry
33.3d
shorts receive
SideDirectionAnnualised carryDays → 1%Days → 10%
LONGPAY-10.958%33.3d333.3d
SHORTRECEIVE10.958%33.3d333.3d

/api/asset/hl-0G/carry · same metrics, JSON

Volume profile

▸ real volume · Hyperliquid candlesstep $ 1 · 25 records
Price binBarsVolumeDistribution
$0.000000–$1.0000★25$1.14M

★ POC = Point of Control (highest-volume bin). Live JSON: /api/asset/hl-0G/volprofile?priceStep=1

Order flow

▸ BID-LEAN · +0.257 · Hyperliquid candles
Bars (buy / sell)
11 / 13
1 unclassified
Buy weight
$695.19K
real volume
Sell weight
$410.50K
real volume
Net delta
$284.70K
buyers net
Imbalance
25.75%
(buy − sell) / (buy + sell)
Toxicity (VPIN)
25.7%
two-sided / balanced
Impact (|Δp|/vol)
—
needs real volume

Sparkline = cumulative delta over the 25-record window./api/asset/hl-0G/flow?rollingWindow=30

Cascade clusters

▸ DOWN · 6 found · deepest 1.92% · Hyperliquid candles

Price-only proxy for forced-unwind clusters. No exchange liquidation feed is wired — read each row as a candidate event, not a confirmed liquidation.

#WindowDurationPeak → TroughDrawdownBars
#12026-06-13 17:00:00Z2.0h0.305460→0.2996101.915%3
#22026-06-14 04:00:00Z4.0h0.298180→0.2930701.714%5
#32026-06-14 00:00:00Z2.0h0.301740→0.2967001.670%3

/api/asset/hl-0G/cascades?windowMs=10800000&minDrawdownPct=0.005 · full list + parameters in JSON

Risk metrics

▸ sovereign store · 5,000 barsperiods/year ≈ 5.26M
Realized vol (annualised)
82.32%
σ per bar = 0.000359
Mean return (annualised)
-479.09%
μ per bar = -0.000001
Sharpe (rf=0)
-5.82
annualised; risk-free assumed zero
Max drawdown
2.00%
peak 0.30 → trough 0.29 over 4392 bars

/api/asset/hl-0G/risk · same metrics, JSON