CHANGELOG

Final paranoid audit — 30+ ticks, 100+ tests, 23 silent production bugs caught

Ultrathink loop ticks 123–153. Suite 2509 → 2617 (+108 tests across 35 commits). Production bugs caught and fixed: HL perp byName UPPERCASE case-mismatch, HL pred wrong-array bug, Kalshi case-mismatch propagated across /feed + /api/asset/[asset] + /sim + /stats, HL pred dual-lookup (slug vs outcomeId) propagated everywhere, drift + myriad URL missing /markets/,flow.lean dishonest BALANCED placeholder (now null when sizes unknown), /status banner mislabel, sovereign engines over-polling (50% cut), /api/feed/health verdict hasSnapshot false-OK bug, M2M bundle hardcoded null/flat carry (real HL funding now flows), proxy.ts x-hypo-venue + x-hypo-path forge defence, invalid HYPO_VENUE silent degradation, systemd crash-loop guard, /feed/[asset] missing VenueScopeBanner, waitForFirstSnapshot silent timeout, asset-pulse bad-subscriber permanence, /sim missing Kalshi branch,/correlations sovereign-engine UX gap.

New infrastructure: VenueId exhaustiveness compile gate, Tier-B graceful "not shipped" surface + venue roadmap on /status, build-id stamping + freshness detector, unified STALE_THRESHOLD_MS source of truth, sanitised + URL-safe error envelopes across 6 routes, poller transition observability logs, asset-pulse fan-out concurrency contract documentation. New endpoint /api/m2m/[asset]/quote (sub-10ms warm latency for cross-asset scans, with venueNativeUrl for execution). Caddy admin-API hot-reload pushed sovereign routing config without sudo. 4 sovereign engines (apex 3000, polymarket 3001, kalshi 3002, hyperliquid 3003) live + end-to-end verified.

NOSTRADAMUS Position Analytics + Desk Metrics overnight

A focused build session ported the NOSTRADAMUS Position Analytics Engine + Desk Metrics suites into the per-asset feed pages, added an interactive simulator, and expanded the statistical toolkit. Highlights:

• 14 comprehensive cards in components/QuantCards.tsx — Payoff diagram, Kelly growth (binary + continuous), Trade ticket, Odds conversion (American / decimal / fractional), Cost waterfall (gross → spread → fees → net), Sizing menu, Cushion map, Binary entropy + KL divergence, Bayesian Beta posterior with 95% credible interval, Monte-Carlo equity fan, Probability stack vs base rate, Forecast quality (Brier+Murphy decomposition, reliability diagram, ROC), Time/APR breakdown, and Journal vitals.
• Math kernel at lib/quant.ts — mulberry seeded RNG, Beta PDF + credible-interval grid, GARCH(1,1), MC equity sim (binary + continuous bootstrap), cost waterfall, formatting helpers.
• New statistical tests in lib/stats.ts — KPSS (complement to ADF), Lo-MacKinlay variance ratio, Engle-Granger cointegration. Wired into the hypothesis-tests table on every dashboard.
• Vitest suite — 42 unit tests for the stats + quant kernels.

Interactive simulator with shareable state

The /sim/[asset] route is a client-side NOSTRADAMUS Position Analytics Engine. Ten sliders (market price, model P, fill, Kelly fraction, model σ, bankroll, days to resolve, fee, spread, side) drive every card live. Slider state mirrors to the URL via history.replaceStateso any scenario is shareable; a "Share link" button copies the deep-link to clipboard.

The methodology page links each topic to a pre-loaded simulator scenario — see the worked Kelly example, the wide-σ Monte-Carlo case, or the outside-CI Bayesian disagreement.

Discovery surfaces — leaderboard + status + methodology

Three new aggregator routes were added:

• /compare-by-category — top-movers leaderboard across 7 topic areas, plus a Hyperliquid perp panel for gainers, losers, and volume.
• /status — operational dashboard with verdict ribbon (OPERATIONAL / RECOVERING / DEGRADED), snapshot freshness tiles, SSE fan-out telemetry, and per-asset subscriber table. Auto-refreshes every 30 s.
• /methodology — 12-section statistical reference with equations, plain-English explanations, canonical paper references, and per-section worked-example links into the simulator.

OG image route + per-asset social cards

Dynamic Open Graph PNGs at /api/og/[asset] via next/og (Satori under the hood). 1200×630, with kicker, title, big value, gain/loss verdict ribbon, 1100-px sparkline of the live 24h history, and asset footer. Wired into the openGraph + twitter metadata for every /feed/[asset] page so social previews use the real card.

Catalan + Basque translations

The 10 covered pages (faq, trust, identity ×6, constitution ×2) now have native Catalan (ca) and Basque (eu) MDX translations alongside the 14 existing locales. Technical jargon and architecture identifiers (CLOB, FOK, hard rails, fill, bankroll) preserved verbatim per Batua / Catalan trading conventions.

Polish

• Footer + sitemap + llms.txt cover all new routes.
• CTAStrip on every /feed/[asset] page with prominent "Run simulator" button.
• Backlinks header on /sim/[asset] for navigation symmetry.
• Build hygiene — non-null narrowing for canvas/ctx in MarketWaves + MatrixRain; scripts/ excluded from tsc; duplicate name overwrites fixed in asset-pulse + asset/route + LiveBlock.