NOSTRADAMUS · Position Analytics Engine
SIMULATOR Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by June 30, 2026?
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A live, interactive instrument for dissecting a single binary position. Sweep the inputs and watch every indicator recompute — payoff geometry, Kelly growth, Bayesian posterior, KL divergence, cost waterfall, Monte-Carlo equity fan, forecast calibration. Companion to the live /feed/pm-will-the-united-kingdom-send-warships-through-the-strait-of-hormuz-by-june-30-2026 page.
▲ YES EDGE · +0.011 · f★ 1.2% · deploy 0.6% · net 0.33pp
§1 · Position economics
YES · Expected P/L per share +0.0108@ model P(YES) = 0.094
P/L per sharemarket pricemodel Pprofit zoneloss zone
Profit is linear in the eventual settlement price.
f★ = 1.18% · g(f★) = 0.073%deploy 0.59% · g = 0.055%
g(f)f★ optimumdeployed fgrowth zone
Underbet leaves growth on the table; overbet destroys capital. The interior maximum is f★.
§2 · The trade ticket
YES @ 0.084 · EV +$19stake $147 · 0.59% of bankroll
Deployed stakestake
$147
0.59% of bankroll
Sharesunits
1,760
each pays $1 if YES
Max payoutwin
$1,760
gross, if win
Max profitwin
+$1,613
net of cost
Max losslose
-$147
binary settles to $0
Payout multiple×
×11.98
$1 → $11.98
Risk:RewardR:R
10.98 : 1
win $10.98 per $1
Expected P/LE[P/L]
+$19
probability-weighted
| Outcome | P(model) | P/L | Contribution |
|---|---|---|---|
| Resolves YES (win) | 9.4% | +$1,613 | +$152 |
| Resolves against (lose) | 90.6% | -$147 | -$133 |
| Expected value | 100.0% | — | +$19 |
What you actually win and lose. The bottom table tabulates probability-weighted P/L by outcome.
§3 · Break-even & cushion
Cushion +1.1 pprelative edge +12.9%
Required win ratebreak-even
8.3%
price = implied probability
Model win rateP(win)
9.4%
what you forecast
Cushionedge
+1.1 pp
margin of safety
Fair pricemodel
0.094
where you think it should trade
The market price equals the win rate you must beat to make money.
§4 · Odds conversion
Implied probabilityP
8.3%
= price
Decimal oddsEU
11.976
total return per $1
AmericanUS
+1098
$100 wins $1098
FractionalUK
10.98 / 1
profit per $1 risked
Profit per $100stake
+$1097.60
clean dollar framing
underdog (+)favorite (-)your price
Five views of the same number.
§4b · Time & annualized return
APR 224% · APY 725%ROI 12.9% over 21d · 17.4 turns/yr
Time to resolvehorizon
21.0 d
504h capital lockup
Raw ROIper resolve
+12.9%
APR (simple)scaled
+224%
ROI × 365/days
APY (compounded)if redeployed
+725%
(1+ROI)^(365/d) − 1
Daily expectedper day
+0.58%
geometric, per day held
Capital turns/yrvelocity
×17.4
how often this slot recycles
simple APRcompounded APYyour horizon
Rank positions by APR, not raw ROI. A thin edge tomorrow beats a fat edge next year.
§5 · Costs & net edge
Net edge +0.33 pperosion 70% · break-even w/ fees 9.1%
gross edgefrictionnet edgefee 0 bps · spread 1.50¢
The number that decides whether to trade.
§6 · Sizing menu
Full Kellyf★
$294
1.18% · g = 0.073%
Half Kelly½ f★
$147
0.59% · g = 0.055%
Quarter Kelly¼ f★
$73
0.29% · g = 0.033%
Flat 1%1%
$250
1.00% · g = 0.072%
Flat 2%2%
$500
2.00% · g = 0.041%
Flat 5%5%
$1,250
5.00% · g = -0.521%
Recommended¼ f★
$73
survives model error
Quarter-Kelly is the industry default — survives model error far better than full Kelly.
§7 · Information theory
Market entropyH(p)
0.414 bit
max 1.0 at p = 0.5
Your entropyH(q)
0.451 bit
Δ +0.036 bit vs market
Surprise · YES−log₂ p
3.58 bit
self-information
Surprise · NO−log₂(1−p)
0.13 bit
self-information
H(p) peaks at p = 0.5 (one bit of irreducible doubt).
NOISE · D_KL(q ‖ p) = 0.0007 nat (0.0011 bit)belief ≈ market — stand down
YES contributionNO contributionbelief ‖ marketnoise
Zero KL ⇒ you know nothing the crowd doesn't.
§8 · Bayesian inference
MARKET PRICE INSIDE 95% CIposterior μ 0.094 · CI [0.01, 0.24] · κ 22.7
Posterior meanE[θ]
0.094
Beta(2.1, 20.6)
95% credible intervalHDI
[0.01, 0.24]
price INSIDE → weak edge
Concentrationκ
22.7
pseudo-obs behind belief
Disagreementvs crowd
+1.1 pp
posterior − price
market prior (dashed)model posterior95% credible bandmarket price
When the market price falls outside the 95% credible interval, your disagreement is statistically meaningful.
§9 · Tail risk · Monte-Carlo (mode A · single position to resolution)
E[P/L] -13.2% · P(YES) 7.2% · VaR₉₅ 100.0%400 paths · 504 bars to resolution
Expected P/Lper $1
-13.17%
P(YES) empiricalq
7.2%
Best pathmax
+1097.6%
Worst pathmin
-100.0%
VaR 95%5%
100.0%
CVaR 95%ES
100.0%
median path25/75 + 5/95 bandsentry pricemodel q
Logit-space mean-reverting walk + terminal flip with probability q. Answers: 'what happens to THIS one position'. Distinct from the repeated-edge fan below.
§9b · Tail risk · Monte-Carlo (mode B · repeated independent edges)
Median CAGR/bet 0.07% · ruin rate 0.0%400 paths × 120 bets · f deploy 0.59%
Sharpe / betμ/σ
0.042
μ 0.09% · σ 2.1%
Sortino / betμ/σ↓
0.150
downside-only denominator
VaR 95%5%
-0.6%
per-bet worst-case
CVaR 95%ES
-0.6%
mean tail loss
Max drawdownMDD
-6.3%
Calmar 0.01
Ruin rate≤50%
0.0%
P(equity ever ≤ 50%)
median25/75 band5/95 bandruin line
Answers a different question: 'if I could find this exact edge forever, what is the bankroll trajectory'. Compounds 120 sequential resolutions which is NOT what happens to a single position.
§10 · Base-rate & macro context
ANCHORED · supported by convictionanchor gap -42.3pp · crowd gap -43.4pp
Anchor gapmodel − base
-42.3 pp
Crowd gapprice − base
-43.4 pp
Verdictdiscipline
ANCHORED
Reference-class anchoring prevents narrative-driven blowups.
§11 · Forecast quality (synthetic ledger)
SKILL POSITIVE · in-sample BSS 22.2% · AUC 0.778out-of-sample BSS (5-fold) 22.3% ± 2.3% · Brier 0.1944 · log-loss 0.5859 · n 1600✓ n = 1600
BrierBS
0.1944
lower = better · ō 0.49
BSSvs base
22.2%
improvement over base rate
ReliabilityREL
0.0031
miscalibration · want ↓
ResolutionRES
0.0582
decisiveness · want ↑
Log lossLL
0.5859
cross-entropy
AUCROC
0.778
0.5 coin · 1.0 oracle
calibration curveROCUNC (irreducible)RES (skill, ↑)REL (miscalib, ↓)
Computed on a seeded synthetic forecast ledger. Reseed (⟳) to redraw.
§12 · Journal vitals (synthetic ledger)
PROFITABLE · PF 1.25 · expectancy +0.121R180 trades · win 52.2% · Sharpe 0.090
Total P/Lnet
+$5,432
on $45,000 cycled
Win ratehit %
52.2%
94 W / 86 L
Profit factorPF
1.25
$ won / $ lost
Expectancyper trade
+$30.18
avg $ per position
R-expectancyper risk
+0.121R
in units of risk taken
Avg win / losspayoff
$286.51 / -$250.00
ratio 1.15 : 1
Sharpe / traderisk-adj
0.090
μR / σR
Closing line valueCLV
+2.61 pp
avg edge vs close
cumulative P/Lprofitable zonered zonesynthetic · seeded from asset
The scorecard every trader checks. Synthetic ledger seeded from the asset slug — recomputes against your real fill history once wired.