NOSTRADAMUS · Position Analytics Engine
SIMULATOR Starmer out by August 31, 2026?
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A live, interactive instrument for dissecting a single binary position. Sweep the inputs and watch every indicator recompute — payoff geometry, Kelly growth, Bayesian posterior, KL divergence, cost waterfall, Monte-Carlo equity fan, forecast calibration. Companion to the live /feed/pm-starmer-out-by-august-31-2026-593-871 page.
▲ YES EDGE · +0.004 · f★ 3.6% · deploy 1.8% · net -0.37pp
§1 · Position economics
YES · Expected P/L per share +0.0038@ model P(YES) = 0.899
P/L per sharemarket pricemodel Pprofit zoneloss zone
Profit is linear in the eventual settlement price.
f★ = 3.62% · g(f★) = 0.008%deploy 1.81% · g = 0.006%
g(f)f★ optimumdeployed fgrowth zone
Underbet leaves growth on the table; overbet destroys capital. The interior maximum is f★.
§2 · The trade ticket
YES @ 0.895 · EV +$2stake $453 · 1.81% of bankroll
Deployed stakestake
$453
1.81% of bankroll
Sharesunits
506
each pays $1 if YES
Max payoutwin
$506
gross, if win
Max profitwin
+$53
net of cost
Max losslose
-$453
binary settles to $0
Payout multiple×
×1.12
$1 → $1.12
Risk:RewardR:R
0.12 : 1
win $0.12 per $1
Expected P/LE[P/L]
+$2
probability-weighted
| Outcome | P(model) | P/L | Contribution |
|---|---|---|---|
| Resolves YES (win) | 89.9% | +$53 | +$48 |
| Resolves against (lose) | 10.1% | -$453 | -$46 |
| Expected value | 100.0% | — | +$2 |
What you actually win and lose. The bottom table tabulates probability-weighted P/L by outcome.
§3 · Break-even & cushion
Cushion +0.4 pprelative edge +0.4%
Required win ratebreak-even
89.5%
price = implied probability
Model win rateP(win)
89.9%
what you forecast
Cushionedge
+0.4 pp
margin of safety
Fair pricemodel
0.899
where you think it should trade
The market price equals the win rate you must beat to make money.
§4 · Odds conversion
Implied probabilityP
89.5%
= price
Decimal oddsEU
1.117
total return per $1
AmericanUS
-852
risk $852 to win $100
FractionalUK
0.12 / 1
profit per $1 risked
Profit per $100stake
+$11.73
clean dollar framing
underdog (+)favorite (-)your price
Five views of the same number.
§4b · Time & annualized return
APR 7% · APY 8%ROI 0.4% over 21d · 17.4 turns/yr
Time to resolvehorizon
21.0 d
504h capital lockup
Raw ROIper resolve
+0.4%
APR (simple)scaled
+7%
ROI × 365/days
APY (compounded)if redeployed
+8%
(1+ROI)^(365/d) − 1
Daily expectedper day
+0.02%
geometric, per day held
Capital turns/yrvelocity
×17.4
how often this slot recycles
simple APRcompounded APYyour horizon
Rank positions by APR, not raw ROI. A thin edge tomorrow beats a fat edge next year.
§5 · Costs & net edge
Net edge -0.37 pperosion 197% · break-even w/ fees 90.3%
gross edgefrictionnet edgefee 0 bps · spread 1.50¢
The number that decides whether to trade.
§6 · Sizing menu
Full Kellyf★
$905
3.62% · g = 0.008%
Half Kelly½ f★
$453
1.81% · g = 0.006%
Quarter Kelly¼ f★
$226
0.91% · g = 0.003%
Flat 1%1%
$250
1.00% · g = 0.004%
Flat 2%2%
$500
2.00% · g = 0.006%
Flat 5%5%
$1,250
5.00% · g = 0.007%
Recommended¼ f★
$226
survives model error
Quarter-Kelly is the industry default — survives model error far better than full Kelly.
§7 · Information theory
Market entropyH(p)
0.485 bit
max 1.0 at p = 0.5
Your entropyH(q)
0.473 bit
Δ -0.012 bit vs market
Surprise · YES−log₂ p
0.16 bit
self-information
Surprise · NO−log₂(1−p)
3.25 bit
self-information
H(p) peaks at p = 0.5 (one bit of irreducible doubt).
NOISE · D_KL(q ‖ p) = 0.0001 nat (0.0001 bit)belief ≈ market — stand down
YES contributionNO contributionbelief ‖ marketnoise
Zero KL ⇒ you know nothing the crowd doesn't.
§8 · Bayesian inference
MARKET PRICE INSIDE 95% CIposterior μ 0.899 · CI [0.75, 0.98] · κ 24.3
Posterior meanE[θ]
0.899
Beta(21.8, 2.5)
95% credible intervalHDI
[0.75, 0.98]
price INSIDE → weak edge
Concentrationκ
24.3
pseudo-obs behind belief
Disagreementvs crowd
+0.4 pp
posterior − price
market prior (dashed)model posterior95% credible bandmarket price
When the market price falls outside the 95% credible interval, your disagreement is statistically meaningful.
§9 · Tail risk · Monte-Carlo (mode A · single position to resolution)
E[P/L] -2.8% · P(YES) 87.0% · VaR₉₅ 100.0%400 paths · 504 bars to resolution
Expected P/Lper $1
-2.79%
P(YES) empiricalq
87.0%
Best pathmax
+11.7%
Worst pathmin
-100.0%
VaR 95%5%
100.0%
CVaR 95%ES
100.0%
median path25/75 + 5/95 bandsentry pricemodel q
Logit-space mean-reverting walk + terminal flip with probability q. Answers: 'what happens to THIS one position'. Distinct from the repeated-edge fan below.
§9b · Tail risk · Monte-Carlo (mode B · repeated independent edges)
Median CAGR/bet 0.01% · ruin rate 0.0%400 paths × 120 bets · f deploy 1.81%
Sharpe / betμ/σ
0.005
μ 0.00% · σ 0.6%
Sortino / betμ/σ↓
0.002
downside-only denominator
VaR 95%5%
-1.8%
per-bet worst-case
CVaR 95%ES
-1.8%
mean tail loss
Max drawdownMDD
-2.3%
Calmar 0.00
Ruin rate≤50%
0.0%
P(equity ever ≤ 50%)
median25/75 band5/95 bandruin line
Answers a different question: 'if I could find this exact edge forever, what is the bankroll trajectory'. Compounds 120 sequential resolutions which is NOT what happens to a single position.
§10 · Base-rate & macro context
ANCHORED · supported by convictionanchor gap +31.5pp · crowd gap +31.1pp
Anchor gapmodel − base
+31.5 pp
Crowd gapprice − base
+31.1 pp
Verdictdiscipline
ANCHORED
Reference-class anchoring prevents narrative-driven blowups.
§11 · Forecast quality (synthetic ledger)
SKILL POSITIVE · in-sample BSS 18.5% · AUC 0.759out-of-sample BSS (5-fold) 18.6% ± 4.0% · Brier 0.2038 · log-loss 0.6034 · n 1600✓ n = 1600
BrierBS
0.2038
lower = better · ō 0.50
BSSvs base
18.5%
improvement over base rate
ReliabilityREL
0.0056
miscalibration · want ↓
ResolutionRES
0.0517
decisiveness · want ↑
Log lossLL
0.6034
cross-entropy
AUCROC
0.759
0.5 coin · 1.0 oracle
calibration curveROCUNC (irreducible)RES (skill, ↑)REL (miscalib, ↓)
Computed on a seeded synthetic forecast ledger. Reseed (⟳) to redraw.
§12 · Journal vitals (synthetic ledger)
PROFITABLE · PF 1.45 · expectancy +0.188R180 trades · win 58.3% · Sharpe 0.162
Total P/Lnet
+$8,449
on $45,000 cycled
Win ratehit %
58.3%
105 W / 75 L
Profit factorPF
1.45
$ won / $ lost
Expectancyper trade
+$46.94
avg $ per position
R-expectancyper risk
+0.188R
in units of risk taken
Avg win / losspayoff
$259.03 / -$250.00
ratio 1.04 : 1
Sharpe / traderisk-adj
0.162
μR / σR
Closing line valueCLV
+2.59 pp
avg edge vs close
cumulative P/Lprofitable zonered zonesynthetic · seeded from asset
The scorecard every trader checks. Synthetic ledger seeded from the asset slug — recomputes against your real fill history once wired.