NOSTRADAMUS · Position Analytics Engine
SIMULATOR Israel x Syria security agreement by June 30?
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A live, interactive instrument for dissecting a single binary position. Sweep the inputs and watch every indicator recompute — payoff geometry, Kelly growth, Bayesian posterior, KL divergence, cost waterfall, Monte-Carlo equity fan, forecast calibration. Companion to the live /feed/pm-israel-x-syria-security-agreement-by-june-30 page.
▲ YES EDGE · +0.054 · f★ 5.7% · deploy 2.8% · net 4.68pp
§1 · Position economics
YES · Expected P/L per share +0.0543@ model P(YES) = 0.093
P/L per sharemarket pricemodel Pprofit zoneloss zone
Profit is linear in the eventual settlement price.
f★ = 5.66% · g(f★) = 2.869%deploy 2.83% · g = 2.335%
g(f)f★ optimumdeployed fgrowth zone
Underbet leaves growth on the table; overbet destroys capital. The interior maximum is f★.
§2 · The trade ticket
YES @ 0.039 · EV +$985stake $707 · 2.83% of bankroll
Deployed stakestake
$707
2.83% of bankroll
Sharesunits
18,125
each pays $1 if YES
Max payoutwin
$18,125
gross, if win
Max profitwin
+$17,419
net of cost
Max losslose
-$707
binary settles to $0
Payout multiple×
×25.64
$1 → $25.64
Risk:RewardR:R
24.64 : 1
win $24.64 per $1
Expected P/LE[P/L]
+$985
probability-weighted
| Outcome | P(model) | P/L | Contribution |
|---|---|---|---|
| Resolves YES (win) | 9.3% | +$17,419 | +$1,626 |
| Resolves against (lose) | 90.7% | -$707 | -$641 |
| Expected value | 100.0% | — | +$985 |
What you actually win and lose. The bottom table tabulates probability-weighted P/L by outcome.
§3 · Break-even & cushion
Cushion +5.4 pprelative edge +139.3%
Required win ratebreak-even
3.9%
price = implied probability
Model win rateP(win)
9.3%
what you forecast
Cushionedge
+5.4 pp
margin of safety
Fair pricemodel
0.093
where you think it should trade
The market price equals the win rate you must beat to make money.
§4 · Odds conversion
Implied probabilityP
3.9%
= price
Decimal oddsEU
25.641
total return per $1
AmericanUS
+2464
$100 wins $2464
FractionalUK
24.64 / 1
profit per $1 risked
Profit per $100stake
+$2464.10
clean dollar framing
underdog (+)favorite (-)your price
Five views of the same number.
§4b · Time & annualized return
APR 2422% · APY 387178071%ROI 139.3% over 21d · 17.4 turns/yr
Time to resolvehorizon
21.0 d
504h capital lockup
Raw ROIper resolve
+139.3%
APR (simple)scaled
+2422%
ROI × 365/days
APY (compounded)if redeployed
+387178071%
(1+ROI)^(365/d) − 1
Daily expectedper day
+4.24%
geometric, per day held
Capital turns/yrvelocity
×17.4
how often this slot recycles
simple APRcompounded APYyour horizon
Rank positions by APR, not raw ROI. A thin edge tomorrow beats a fat edge next year.
§5 · Costs & net edge
Net edge +4.68 pperosion 14% · break-even w/ fees 4.7%
gross edgefrictionnet edgefee 0 bps · spread 1.50¢
The number that decides whether to trade.
§6 · Sizing menu
Full Kellyf★
$1,414
5.66% · g = 2.869%
Half Kelly½ f★
$707
2.83% · g = 2.335%
Quarter Kelly¼ f★
$353
1.41% · g = 1.499%
Flat 1%1%
$250
1.00% · g = 1.145%
Flat 2%2%
$500
2.00% · g = 1.908%
Flat 5%5%
$1,250
5.00% · g = 2.844%
Recommended¼ f★
$353
survives model error
Quarter-Kelly is the industry default — survives model error far better than full Kelly.
§7 · Information theory
Market entropyH(p)
0.238 bit
max 1.0 at p = 0.5
Your entropyH(q)
0.448 bit
Δ +0.210 bit vs market
Surprise · YES−log₂ p
4.68 bit
self-information
Surprise · NO−log₂(1−p)
0.06 bit
self-information
H(p) peaks at p = 0.5 (one bit of irreducible doubt).
SIGNAL · D_KL(q ‖ p) = 0.0287 nat (0.0414 bit)exploitable edge present
YES contributionNO contributionbelief ‖ marketsignal
Zero KL ⇒ you know nothing the crowd doesn't.
§8 · Bayesian inference
MARKET PRICE INSIDE 95% CIposterior μ 0.093 · CI [0.01, 0.24] · κ 22.5
Posterior meanE[θ]
0.093
Beta(2.1, 20.4)
95% credible intervalHDI
[0.01, 0.24]
price INSIDE → weak edge
Concentrationκ
22.5
pseudo-obs behind belief
Disagreementvs crowd
+5.4 pp
posterior − price
market prior (dashed)model posterior95% credible bandmarket price
When the market price falls outside the 95% credible interval, your disagreement is statistically meaningful.
§9 · Tail risk · Monte-Carlo (mode A · single position to resolution)
E[P/L] +169.2% · P(YES) 10.5% · VaR₉₅ 100.0%400 paths · 504 bars to resolution
Expected P/Lper $1
+169.23%
P(YES) empiricalq
10.5%
Best pathmax
+2464.1%
Worst pathmin
-100.0%
VaR 95%5%
100.0%
CVaR 95%ES
100.0%
median path25/75 + 5/95 bandsentry pricemodel q
Logit-space mean-reverting walk + terminal flip with probability q. Answers: 'what happens to THIS one position'. Distinct from the repeated-edge fan below.
§9b · Tail risk · Monte-Carlo (mode B · repeated independent edges)
Median CAGR/bet 2.27% · ruin rate 13.5%400 paths × 120 bets · f deploy 2.83%
Sharpe / betμ/σ
0.194
μ 4.16% · σ 21.4%
Sortino / betμ/σ↓
1.471
downside-only denominator
VaR 95%5%
-2.8%
per-bet worst-case
CVaR 95%ES
-2.8%
mean tail loss
Max drawdownMDD
-24.9%
Calmar 0.09
Ruin rate≤50%
13.5%
P(equity ever ≤ 50%)
median25/75 band5/95 bandruin line
Answers a different question: 'if I could find this exact edge forever, what is the bankroll trajectory'. Compounds 120 sequential resolutions which is NOT what happens to a single position.
§10 · Base-rate & macro context
ANCHORED · supported by convictionanchor gap -36.2pp · crowd gap -41.6pp
Anchor gapmodel − base
-36.2 pp
Crowd gapprice − base
-41.6 pp
Verdictdiscipline
ANCHORED
Reference-class anchoring prevents narrative-driven blowups.
§11 · Forecast quality (synthetic ledger)
SKILL POSITIVE · in-sample BSS 24.8% · AUC 0.791out-of-sample BSS (5-fold) 24.9% ± 1.4% · Brier 0.1880 · log-loss 0.5630 · n 1600✓ n = 1600
BrierBS
0.1880
lower = better · ō 0.50
BSSvs base
24.8%
improvement over base rate
ReliabilityREL
0.0023
miscalibration · want ↓
ResolutionRES
0.0640
decisiveness · want ↑
Log lossLL
0.5630
cross-entropy
AUCROC
0.791
0.5 coin · 1.0 oracle
calibration curveROCUNC (irreducible)RES (skill, ↑)REL (miscalib, ↓)
Computed on a seeded synthetic forecast ledger. Reseed (⟳) to redraw.
§12 · Journal vitals (synthetic ledger)
PROFITABLE · PF 1.43 · expectancy +0.168R180 trades · win 60.6% · Sharpe 0.157
Total P/Lnet
+$7,561
on $45,000 cycled
Win ratehit %
60.6%
109 W / 71 L
Profit factorPF
1.43
$ won / $ lost
Expectancyper trade
+$42.00
avg $ per position
R-expectancyper risk
+0.168R
in units of risk taken
Avg win / losspayoff
$232.21 / -$250.00
ratio 0.93 : 1
Sharpe / traderisk-adj
0.157
μR / σR
Closing line valueCLV
+2.36 pp
avg edge vs close
cumulative P/Lprofitable zonered zonesynthetic · seeded from asset
The scorecard every trader checks. Synthetic ledger seeded from the asset slug — recomputes against your real fill history once wired.