NOSTRADAMUS · Position Analytics Engine
SIMULATOR Will Scottie Scheffler win the 2026 U.S. Open?
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A live, interactive instrument for dissecting a single binary position. Sweep the inputs and watch every indicator recompute — payoff geometry, Kelly growth, Bayesian posterior, KL divergence, cost waterfall, Monte-Carlo equity fan, forecast calibration. Companion to the live /feed/pm-2026-us-open-winner-scottie-scheffler-win page.
▲ YES EDGE · +0.002 · f★ 0.3% · deploy 0.1% · net -0.51pp
§1 · Position economics
YES · Expected P/L per share +0.0024@ model P(YES) = 0.137
P/L per sharemarket pricemodel Pprofit zoneloss zone
Profit is linear in the eventual settlement price.
f★ = 0.28% · g(f★) = 0.002%deploy 0.14% · g = 0.002%
g(f)f★ optimumdeployed fgrowth zone
Underbet leaves growth on the table; overbet destroys capital. The interior maximum is f★.
§2 · The trade ticket
YES @ 0.135 · EV +$1stake $35 · 0.14% of bankroll
Deployed stakestake
$35
0.14% of bankroll
Sharesunits
258
each pays $1 if YES
Max payoutwin
$258
gross, if win
Max profitwin
+$223
net of cost
Max losslose
-$35
binary settles to $0
Payout multiple×
×7.41
$1 → $7.41
Risk:RewardR:R
6.41 : 1
win $6.41 per $1
Expected P/LE[P/L]
+$1
probability-weighted
| Outcome | P(model) | P/L | Contribution |
|---|---|---|---|
| Resolves YES (win) | 13.7% | +$223 | +$31 |
| Resolves against (lose) | 86.3% | -$35 | -$30 |
| Expected value | 100.0% | — | +$1 |
What you actually win and lose. The bottom table tabulates probability-weighted P/L by outcome.
§3 · Break-even & cushion
Cushion +0.2 pprelative edge +1.8%
Required win ratebreak-even
13.5%
price = implied probability
Model win rateP(win)
13.7%
what you forecast
Cushionedge
+0.2 pp
margin of safety
Fair pricemodel
0.137
where you think it should trade
The market price equals the win rate you must beat to make money.
§4 · Odds conversion
Implied probabilityP
13.5%
= price
Decimal oddsEU
7.407
total return per $1
AmericanUS
+641
$100 wins $641
FractionalUK
6.41 / 1
profit per $1 risked
Profit per $100stake
+$640.74
clean dollar framing
underdog (+)favorite (-)your price
Five views of the same number.
§4b · Time & annualized return
APR 31% · APY 36%ROI 1.8% over 21d · 17.4 turns/yr
Time to resolvehorizon
21.0 d
504h capital lockup
Raw ROIper resolve
+1.8%
APR (simple)scaled
+31%
ROI × 365/days
APY (compounded)if redeployed
+36%
(1+ROI)^(365/d) − 1
Daily expectedper day
+0.08%
geometric, per day held
Capital turns/yrvelocity
×17.4
how often this slot recycles
simple APRcompounded APYyour horizon
Rank positions by APR, not raw ROI. A thin edge tomorrow beats a fat edge next year.
§5 · Costs & net edge
Net edge -0.51 pperosion 311% · break-even w/ fees 14.3%
gross edgefrictionnet edgefee 0 bps · spread 1.50¢
The number that decides whether to trade.
§6 · Sizing menu
Full Kellyf★
$70
0.28% · g = 0.002%
Half Kelly½ f★
$35
0.14% · g = 0.002%
Quarter Kelly¼ f★
$17
0.07% · g = 0.001%
Flat 1%1%
$250
1.00% · g = -0.014%
Flat 2%2%
$500
2.00% · g = -0.086%
Flat 5%5%
$1,250
5.00% · g = -0.606%
Recommended¼ f★
$17
survives model error
Quarter-Kelly is the industry default — survives model error far better than full Kelly.
§7 · Information theory
Market entropyH(p)
0.571 bit
max 1.0 at p = 0.5
Your entropyH(q)
0.577 bit
Δ +0.006 bit vs market
Surprise · YES−log₂ p
2.89 bit
self-information
Surprise · NO−log₂(1−p)
0.21 bit
self-information
H(p) peaks at p = 0.5 (one bit of irreducible doubt).
NOISE · D_KL(q ‖ p) = 0.0000 nat (0.0000 bit)belief ≈ market — stand down
YES contributionNO contributionbelief ‖ marketnoise
Zero KL ⇒ you know nothing the crowd doesn't.
§8 · Bayesian inference
MARKET PRICE INSIDE 95% CIposterior μ 0.137 · CI [0.04, 0.27] · κ 31.9
Posterior meanE[θ]
0.137
Beta(4.4, 27.5)
95% credible intervalHDI
[0.04, 0.27]
price INSIDE → weak edge
Concentrationκ
31.9
pseudo-obs behind belief
Disagreementvs crowd
+0.2 pp
posterior − price
market prior (dashed)model posterior95% credible bandmarket price
When the market price falls outside the 95% credible interval, your disagreement is statistically meaningful.
§9 · Tail risk · Monte-Carlo (mode A · single position to resolution)
E[P/L] -0.0% · P(YES) 13.5% · VaR₉₅ 100.0%400 paths · 504 bars to resolution
Expected P/Lper $1
-0.00%
P(YES) empiricalq
13.5%
Best pathmax
+640.7%
Worst pathmin
-100.0%
VaR 95%5%
100.0%
CVaR 95%ES
100.0%
median path25/75 + 5/95 bandsentry pricemodel q
Logit-space mean-reverting walk + terminal flip with probability q. Answers: 'what happens to THIS one position'. Distinct from the repeated-edge fan below.
§9b · Tail risk · Monte-Carlo (mode B · repeated independent edges)
Median CAGR/bet -0.01% · ruin rate 0.0%400 paths × 120 bets · f deploy 0.50%
Sharpe / betμ/σ
0.012
μ 0.01% · σ 1.3%
Sortino / betμ/σ↓
0.029
downside-only denominator
VaR 95%5%
-0.5%
per-bet worst-case
CVaR 95%ES
-0.5%
mean tail loss
Max drawdownMDD
-3.9%
Calmar -0.00
Ruin rate≤50%
0.0%
P(equity ever ≤ 50%)
median25/75 band5/95 bandruin line
Answers a different question: 'if I could find this exact edge forever, what is the bankroll trajectory'. Compounds 120 sequential resolutions which is NOT what happens to a single position.
§10 · Base-rate & macro context
ANCHORED · supported by convictionanchor gap -38.5pp · crowd gap -38.7pp
Anchor gapmodel − base
-38.5 pp
Crowd gapprice − base
-38.7 pp
Verdictdiscipline
ANCHORED
Reference-class anchoring prevents narrative-driven blowups.
§11 · Forecast quality (synthetic ledger)
SKILL POSITIVE · in-sample BSS 20.6% · AUC 0.767out-of-sample BSS (5-fold) 20.7% ± 2.5% · Brier 0.1986 · log-loss 0.5882 · n 1600✓ n = 1600
BrierBS
0.1986
lower = better · ō 0.50
BSSvs base
20.6%
improvement over base rate
ReliabilityREL
0.0036
miscalibration · want ↓
ResolutionRES
0.0550
decisiveness · want ↑
Log lossLL
0.5882
cross-entropy
AUCROC
0.767
0.5 coin · 1.0 oracle
calibration curveROCUNC (irreducible)RES (skill, ↑)REL (miscalib, ↓)
Computed on a seeded synthetic forecast ledger. Reseed (⟳) to redraw.
§12 · Journal vitals (synthetic ledger)
BLEEDING · PF 0.97 · expectancy -0.015R180 trades · win 51.7% · Sharpe -0.015
Total P/Lnet
-$686
on $45,000 cycled
Win ratehit %
51.7%
93 W / 87 L
Profit factorPF
0.97
$ won / $ lost
Expectancyper trade
-$3.81
avg $ per position
R-expectancyper risk
-0.015R
in units of risk taken
Avg win / losspayoff
$226.49 / -$250.00
ratio 0.91 : 1
Sharpe / traderisk-adj
-0.015
μR / σR
Closing line valueCLV
+2.40 pp
avg edge vs close
cumulative P/Lprofitable zonered zonesynthetic · seeded from asset
The scorecard every trader checks. Synthetic ledger seeded from the asset slug — recomputes against your real fill history once wired.