NOSTRADAMUS · Position Analytics Engine
SIMULATOR Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 Men's World Cup?
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A live, interactive instrument for dissecting a single binary position. Sweep the inputs and watch every indicator recompute — payoff geometry, Kelly growth, Bayesian posterior, KL divergence, cost waterfall, Monte-Carlo equity fan, forecast calibration. Companion to the live /feed/kalshi-kxmenworldcup-26-civ page.
▲ YES EDGE · +0.016 · f★ 1.6% · deploy 0.8% · net 0.85pp
§1 · Position economics
YES · Expected P/L per share +0.0160@ model P(YES) = 0.020
P/L per sharemarket pricemodel Pprofit zoneloss zone
Profit is linear in the eventual settlement price.
f★ = 1.61% · g(f★) = 1.632%deploy 0.80% · g = 1.407%
g(f)f★ optimumdeployed fgrowth zone
Underbet leaves growth on the table; overbet destroys capital. The interior maximum is f★.
§2 · The trade ticket
YES @ 0.004 · EV +$803stake $201 · 0.80% of bankroll
Deployed stakestake
$201
0.80% of bankroll
Sharesunits
50,201
each pays $1 if YES
Max payoutwin
$50,201
gross, if win
Max profitwin
+$50,000
net of cost
Max losslose
-$201
binary settles to $0
Payout multiple×
×250.00
$1 → $250.00
Risk:RewardR:R
249.00 : 1
win $249.00 per $1
Expected P/LE[P/L]
+$803
probability-weighted
| Outcome | P(model) | P/L | Contribution |
|---|---|---|---|
| Resolves YES (win) | 2.0% | +$50,000 | +$1,000 |
| Resolves against (lose) | 98.0% | -$201 | -$197 |
| Expected value | 100.0% | — | +$803 |
What you actually win and lose. The bottom table tabulates probability-weighted P/L by outcome.
§3 · Break-even & cushion
Cushion +1.6 pprelative edge +400.0%
Required win ratebreak-even
0.4%
price = implied probability
Model win rateP(win)
2.0%
what you forecast
Cushionedge
+1.6 pp
margin of safety
Fair pricemodel
0.020
where you think it should trade
The market price equals the win rate you must beat to make money.
§4 · Odds conversion
Implied probabilityP
0.4%
= price
Decimal oddsEU
250.000
total return per $1
AmericanUS
+24900
$100 wins $24900
FractionalUK
249.00 / 1
profit per $1 risked
Profit per $100stake
+$24900.00
clean dollar framing
underdog (+)favorite (-)your price
Five views of the same number.
§4b · Time & annualized return
APR 6952% · APY 140852435578547%ROI 400.0% over 21d · 17.4 turns/yr
Time to resolvehorizon
21.0 d
504h capital lockup
Raw ROIper resolve
+400.0%
APR (simple)scaled
+6952%
ROI × 365/days
APY (compounded)if redeployed
+140852435578547%
(1+ROI)^(365/d) − 1
Daily expectedper day
+7.97%
geometric, per day held
Capital turns/yrvelocity
×17.4
how often this slot recycles
simple APRcompounded APYyour horizon
Rank positions by APR, not raw ROI. A thin edge tomorrow beats a fat edge next year.
§5 · Costs & net edge
Net edge +0.85 pperosion 47% · break-even w/ fees 1.1%
gross edgefrictionnet edgefee 0 bps · spread 1.50¢
The number that decides whether to trade.
§6 · Sizing menu
Full Kellyf★
$402
1.61% · g = 1.632%
Half Kelly½ f★
$201
0.80% · g = 1.407%
Quarter Kelly¼ f★
$100
0.40% · g = 0.992%
Flat 1%1%
$250
1.00% · g = 1.515%
Flat 2%2%
$500
2.00% · g = 1.597%
Flat 5%5%
$1,250
5.00% · g = 0.171%
Recommended¼ f★
$100
survives model error
Quarter-Kelly is the industry default — survives model error far better than full Kelly.
§7 · Information theory
Market entropyH(p)
0.038 bit
max 1.0 at p = 0.5
Your entropyH(q)
0.141 bit
Δ +0.104 bit vs market
Surprise · YES−log₂ p
7.97 bit
self-information
Surprise · NO−log₂(1−p)
0.01 bit
self-information
H(p) peaks at p = 0.5 (one bit of irreducible doubt).
NOISE · D_KL(q ‖ p) = 0.0163 nat (0.0235 bit)belief ≈ market — stand down
YES contributionNO contributionbelief ‖ marketnoise
Zero KL ⇒ you know nothing the crowd doesn't.
§8 · Bayesian inference
MARKET PRICE INSIDE 95% CIposterior μ 0.020 · CI [0.00, 0.30] · κ 4.4
Posterior meanE[θ]
0.020
Beta(0.1, 4.4)
95% credible intervalHDI
[0.00, 0.30]
price INSIDE → weak edge
Concentrationκ
4.4
pseudo-obs behind belief
Disagreementvs crowd
+0.0 pp
posterior − price
market prior (dashed)model posterior95% credible bandmarket price
When the market price falls outside the 95% credible interval, your disagreement is statistically meaningful.
§9 · Tail risk · Monte-Carlo (mode A · single position to resolution)
E[P/L] +712.5% · P(YES) 3.3% · VaR₉₅ 100.0%400 paths · 504 bars to resolution
Expected P/Lper $1
+712.50%
P(YES) empiricalq
3.3%
Best pathmax
+24900.0%
Worst pathmin
-100.0%
VaR 95%5%
100.0%
CVaR 95%ES
100.0%
median path25/75 + 5/95 bandsentry pricemodel q
Logit-space mean-reverting walk + terminal flip with probability q. Answers: 'what happens to THIS one position'. Distinct from the repeated-edge fan below.
§9b · Tail risk · Monte-Carlo (mode B · repeated independent edges)
Median CAGR/bet 3.88% · ruin rate 4.3%400 paths × 120 bets · f deploy 0.80%
Sharpe / betμ/σ
0.182
μ 7.09% · σ 39.0%
Sortino / betμ/σ↓
8.823
downside-only denominator
VaR 95%5%
-0.8%
per-bet worst-case
CVaR 95%ES
-0.8%
mean tail loss
Max drawdownMDD
-16.9%
Calmar 0.23
Ruin rate≤50%
4.3%
P(equity ever ≤ 50%)
median25/75 band5/95 bandruin line
Answers a different question: 'if I could find this exact edge forever, what is the bankroll trajectory'. Compounds 120 sequential resolutions which is NOT what happens to a single position.
§10 · Base-rate & macro context
ANCHORED · supported by convictionanchor gap -54.7pp · crowd gap -56.3pp
Anchor gapmodel − base
-54.7 pp
Crowd gapprice − base
-56.3 pp
Verdictdiscipline
ANCHORED
Reference-class anchoring prevents narrative-driven blowups.
§11 · Forecast quality (synthetic ledger)
SKILL POSITIVE · in-sample BSS 20.9% · AUC 0.771out-of-sample BSS (5-fold) 21.0% ± 1.9% · Brier 0.1976 · log-loss 0.5858 · n 1600✓ n = 1600
BrierBS
0.1976
lower = better · ō 0.51
BSSvs base
20.9%
improvement over base rate
ReliabilityREL
0.0036
miscalibration · want ↓
ResolutionRES
0.0547
decisiveness · want ↑
Log lossLL
0.5858
cross-entropy
AUCROC
0.771
0.5 coin · 1.0 oracle
calibration curveROCUNC (irreducible)RES (skill, ↑)REL (miscalib, ↓)
Computed on a seeded synthetic forecast ledger. Reseed (⟳) to redraw.
§12 · Journal vitals (synthetic ledger)
PROFITABLE · PF 1.15 · expectancy +0.074R180 trades · win 50.6% · Sharpe 0.059
Total P/Lnet
+$3,338
on $45,000 cycled
Win ratehit %
50.6%
91 W / 89 L
Profit factorPF
1.15
$ won / $ lost
Expectancyper trade
+$18.54
avg $ per position
R-expectancyper risk
+0.074R
in units of risk taken
Avg win / losspayoff
$281.18 / -$250.00
ratio 1.12 : 1
Sharpe / traderisk-adj
0.059
μR / σR
Closing line valueCLV
+3.43 pp
avg edge vs close
cumulative P/Lprofitable zonered zonesynthetic · seeded from asset
The scorecard every trader checks. Synthetic ledger seeded from the asset slug — recomputes against your real fill history once wired.