NOSTRADAMUS · Position Analytics Engine
SIMULATOR Japan
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A live, interactive instrument for dissecting a single binary position. Sweep the inputs and watch every indicator recompute — payoff geometry, Kelly growth, Bayesian posterior, KL divergence, cost waterfall, Monte-Carlo equity fan, forecast calibration. Companion to the live /feed/hl-pred-japan-196 page.
▲ YES EDGE · +0.003 · f★ 0.3% · deploy 0.1% · net -0.47pp
§1 · Position economics
YES · Expected P/L per share +0.0028@ model P(YES) = 0.020
P/L per sharemarket pricemodel Pprofit zoneloss zone
Profit is linear in the eventual settlement price.
f★ = 0.29% · g(f★) = 0.022%deploy 0.14% · g = 0.017%
g(f)f★ optimumdeployed fgrowth zone
Underbet leaves growth on the table; overbet destroys capital. The interior maximum is f★.
§2 · The trade ticket
YES @ 0.017 · EV +$6stake $36 · 0.14% of bankroll
Deployed stakestake
$36
0.14% of bankroll
Sharesunits
2,079
each pays $1 if YES
Max payoutwin
$2,079
gross, if win
Max profitwin
+$2,043
net of cost
Max losslose
-$36
binary settles to $0
Payout multiple×
×58.17
$1 → $58.17
Risk:RewardR:R
57.17 : 1
win $57.17 per $1
Expected P/LE[P/L]
+$6
probability-weighted
| Outcome | P(model) | P/L | Contribution |
|---|---|---|---|
| Resolves YES (win) | 2.0% | +$2,043 | +$41 |
| Resolves against (lose) | 98.0% | -$36 | -$35 |
| Expected value | 100.0% | — | +$6 |
What you actually win and lose. The bottom table tabulates probability-weighted P/L by outcome.
§3 · Break-even & cushion
Cushion +0.3 pprelative edge +16.3%
Required win ratebreak-even
1.7%
price = implied probability
Model win rateP(win)
2.0%
what you forecast
Cushionedge
+0.3 pp
margin of safety
Fair pricemodel
0.020
where you think it should trade
The market price equals the win rate you must beat to make money.
§4 · Odds conversion
Implied probabilityP
1.7%
= price
Decimal oddsEU
58.173
total return per $1
AmericanUS
+5717
$100 wins $5717
FractionalUK
57.17 / 1
profit per $1 risked
Profit per $100stake
+$5717.34
clean dollar framing
underdog (+)favorite (-)your price
Five views of the same number.
§4b · Time & annualized return
APR 284% · APY 1290%ROI 16.3% over 21d · 17.4 turns/yr
Time to resolvehorizon
21.0 d
504h capital lockup
Raw ROIper resolve
+16.3%
APR (simple)scaled
+284%
ROI × 365/days
APY (compounded)if redeployed
+1290%
(1+ROI)^(365/d) − 1
Daily expectedper day
+0.72%
geometric, per day held
Capital turns/yrvelocity
×17.4
how often this slot recycles
simple APRcompounded APYyour horizon
Rank positions by APR, not raw ROI. A thin edge tomorrow beats a fat edge next year.
§5 · Costs & net edge
Net edge -0.47 pperosion 267% · break-even w/ fees 2.5%
gross edgefrictionnet edgefee 0 bps · spread 1.50¢
The number that decides whether to trade.
§6 · Sizing menu
Full Kellyf★
$71
0.29% · g = 0.022%
Half Kelly½ f★
$36
0.14% · g = 0.017%
Quarter Kelly¼ f★
$18
0.07% · g = 0.010%
Flat 1%1%
$250
1.00% · g = -0.081%
Flat 2%2%
$500
2.00% · g = -0.455%
Flat 5%5%
$1,250
5.00% · g = -2.326%
Recommended¼ f★
$18
survives model error
Quarter-Kelly is the industry default — survives model error far better than full Kelly.
§7 · Information theory
Market entropyH(p)
0.125 bit
max 1.0 at p = 0.5
Your entropyH(q)
0.141 bit
Δ +0.016 bit vs market
Surprise · YES−log₂ p
5.86 bit
self-information
Surprise · NO−log₂(1−p)
0.03 bit
self-information
H(p) peaks at p = 0.5 (one bit of irreducible doubt).
NOISE · D_KL(q ‖ p) = 0.0002 nat (0.0003 bit)belief ≈ market — stand down
YES contributionNO contributionbelief ‖ marketnoise
Zero KL ⇒ you know nothing the crowd doesn't.
§8 · Bayesian inference
MARKET PRICE INSIDE 95% CIposterior μ 0.020 · CI [0.00, 0.30] · κ 4.4
Posterior meanE[θ]
0.020
Beta(0.1, 4.4)
95% credible intervalHDI
[0.00, 0.30]
price INSIDE → weak edge
Concentrationκ
4.4
pseudo-obs behind belief
Disagreementvs crowd
+0.0 pp
posterior − price
market prior (dashed)model posterior95% credible bandmarket price
When the market price falls outside the 95% credible interval, your disagreement is statistically meaningful.
§9 · Tail risk · Monte-Carlo (mode A · single position to resolution)
E[P/L] +30.9% · P(YES) 2.3% · VaR₉₅ 100.0%400 paths · 504 bars to resolution
Expected P/Lper $1
+30.89%
P(YES) empiricalq
2.3%
Best pathmax
+5717.3%
Worst pathmin
-100.0%
VaR 95%5%
100.0%
CVaR 95%ES
100.0%
median path25/75 + 5/95 bandsentry pricemodel q
Logit-space mean-reverting walk + terminal flip with probability q. Answers: 'what happens to THIS one position'. Distinct from the repeated-edge fan below.
§9b · Tail risk · Monte-Carlo (mode B · repeated independent edges)
Median CAGR/bet 0.35% · ruin rate 0.0%400 paths × 120 bets · f deploy 0.50%
Sharpe / betμ/σ
0.109
μ 0.61% · σ 5.6%
Sortino / betμ/σ↓
1.213
downside-only denominator
VaR 95%5%
-0.5%
per-bet worst-case
CVaR 95%ES
-0.5%
mean tail loss
Max drawdownMDD
-12.7%
Calmar 0.03
Ruin rate≤50%
0.0%
P(equity ever ≤ 50%)
median25/75 band5/95 bandruin line
Answers a different question: 'if I could find this exact edge forever, what is the bankroll trajectory'. Compounds 120 sequential resolutions which is NOT what happens to a single position.
§10 · Base-rate & macro context
ANCHORED · supported by convictionanchor gap -40.3pp · crowd gap -40.6pp
Anchor gapmodel − base
-40.3 pp
Crowd gapprice − base
-40.6 pp
Verdictdiscipline
ANCHORED
Reference-class anchoring prevents narrative-driven blowups.
§11 · Forecast quality (synthetic ledger)
SKILL POSITIVE · in-sample BSS 23.6% · AUC 0.784out-of-sample BSS (5-fold) 23.7% ± 1.8% · Brier 0.1909 · log-loss 0.5699 · n 1600✓ n = 1600
BrierBS
0.1909
lower = better · ō 0.50
BSSvs base
23.6%
improvement over base rate
ReliabilityREL
0.0024
miscalibration · want ↓
ResolutionRES
0.0625
decisiveness · want ↑
Log lossLL
0.5699
cross-entropy
AUCROC
0.784
0.5 coin · 1.0 oracle
calibration curveROCUNC (irreducible)RES (skill, ↑)REL (miscalib, ↓)
Computed on a seeded synthetic forecast ledger. Reseed (⟳) to redraw.
§12 · Journal vitals (synthetic ledger)
PROFITABLE · PF 1.38 · expectancy +0.164R180 trades · win 57.2% · Sharpe 0.139
Total P/Lnet
+$7,378
on $45,000 cycled
Win ratehit %
57.2%
103 W / 77 L
Profit factorPF
1.38
$ won / $ lost
Expectancyper trade
+$40.99
avg $ per position
R-expectancyper risk
+0.164R
in units of risk taken
Avg win / losspayoff
$258.53 / -$250.00
ratio 1.03 : 1
Sharpe / traderisk-adj
0.139
μR / σR
Closing line valueCLV
+2.74 pp
avg edge vs close
cumulative P/Lprofitable zonered zonesynthetic · seeded from asset
The scorecard every trader checks. Synthetic ledger seeded from the asset slug — recomputes against your real fill history once wired.