TF-IDF basket · Engle-Granger pairs · Polymarket
Related to Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in June?
Markets in the same TF-IDF topic cluster, with a 7-day Engle-Granger cointegration screen against each peer. Pairs with t-statistic below −3.34 reject the null of no cointegration at the 5% level — meaning the two markets share a stationary spread useful for relative-value trades.
§1 · Topic basket · “crude · oil · hit” (13 markets)
Top terms: crudeoilhitclendwti
- Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $105 by end of June?5.5¢ YES · $31.8k 24h
- Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $110 by end of June?3.0¢ YES · $24.4k 24h
- Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $115 by end of June?1.9¢ YES · $29.9k 24h
- Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of June?1.5¢ YES · $80.6k 24h
- Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $130 by end of June?1.6¢ YES · $52.3k 24h
- Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of June?1.4¢ YES · $29.0k 24h
- Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $175 by end of June?0.9¢ YES · $61.8k 24h
- Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of June?0.5¢ YES · $45.1k 24h
- Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $70 by end of June?16.5¢ YES · $69.6k 24h
- Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $80 by end of June?86.5¢ YES · $35.6k 24h
- Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $75 in June?48.5¢ YES · $38.9k 24h
- ★ Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in June?92.9¢ YES · $53.0k 24h
- Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in June?8.5¢ YES · $29.1k 24h
§2 · Engle-Granger cointegration screen (8 pairs tested)
For each peer, 7d aligned series are regressed; the residuals are tested for a unit root (ADF). Reject H₀ (no cointegration) at 5% when t < −3.34. Cointegrated pairs share a stationary spread — candidates for pairs / basket trades.
| Peer | t-stat | n | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|
| -4.146 | 169 | ▲ cointegrated · pair candidate | |
| -4.135 | 169 | ▲ cointegrated · pair candidate | |
| -3.911 | 169 | ▲ cointegrated · pair candidate | |
| -3.647 | 169 | ▲ cointegrated · pair candidate | |
| -3.602 | 169 | ▲ cointegrated · pair candidate | |
| -2.866 | 169 | no rejection · independent | |
| -2.478 | 169 | no rejection · independent | |
| -2.406 | 169 | no rejection · independent |
▸ Advanced metrics · M2M bundle
polymarket · will-wti-dip-to-80-in-june-2026-848-561-294-989-956-135-789 · fresh · feed 0s old24h sparkline · 60 pts▼ —
realized vol (ann.)
897.45%
max drawdown
7.12%
sharpe
—
ulcer index
3.65%
RMS drawdown
pain index
2.28%
mean drawdown
mod. VaR 95%
0.00%
Cornish-Fisher
martin ratio
—
ret / ulcer
CDaR 95%
7.12%
cond. drawdown
gain/pain
3.78
Σgain / Σ|loss|
sterling
—
ret / CDaR
omega (θ=0)
3.78
upside/downside
roll spread
6.9 bps
implied (price-only)
bars used
779
store
spread
—
24h Δ
—
flow lean
—
carry
flat
signalNEUTRALconfidence 20%
Same bundle via M2M API:
/api/m2m/pm-will-wti-dip-to-80-in-june-2026-848-561-294-989-956-135-789/bundle · venue execution: polymarket →