TF-IDF basket · Engle-Granger pairs · Polymarket
Related to Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
Markets in the same TF-IDF topic cluster, with a 7-day Engle-Granger cointegration screen against each peer. Pairs with t-statistic below −3.34 reject the null of no cointegration at the 5% level — meaning the two markets share a stationary spread useful for relative-value trades.
§1 · Topic basket · “brazilian · election · president” (11 markets)
Top terms: brazilianelectionpresidentpoliticswin2026
- Will Camilo Santana win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?1.8¢ YES · $26.4k 24h
- Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?0.1¢ YES · $24.5k 24h
- Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?24.8¢ YES · $23.1k 24h
- Will Geraldo Alckmin win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?0.4¢ YES · $70.6k 24h
- Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?49.5¢ YES · $23.4k 24h
- Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?1.1¢ YES · $79.2k 24h
- Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?14.9¢ YES · $74.6k 24h
- Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?1.6¢ YES · $29.1k 24h
- ★ Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?2.2¢ YES · $41.7k 24h
- Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?0.1¢ YES · $56.3k 24h
- Will Tereza Cristina win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?0.1¢ YES · $70.3k 24h
§2 · Engle-Granger cointegration screen (8 pairs tested)
For each peer, 7d aligned series are regressed; the residuals are tested for a unit root (ADF). Reject H₀ (no cointegration) at 5% when t < −3.34. Cointegrated pairs share a stationary spread — candidates for pairs / basket trades.
| Peer | t-stat | n | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|
| -3.073 | 169 | no rejection · independent | |
| -2.614 | 169 | no rejection · independent | |
| -2.293 | 169 | no rejection · independent | |
| -2.226 | 169 | no rejection · independent | |
| -1.213 | 169 | no rejection · independent | |
| -0.899 | 169 | no rejection · independent | |
| -0.667 | 169 | no rejection · independent | |
| -0.622 | 169 | no rejection · independent |
▸ Advanced metrics · M2M bundle
polymarket · will-ronaldo-caiado-win-the-2026-brazilian-presidential-election · fresh · feed 6s old24h sparkline · 60 pts▲ 7.32%
realized vol (ann.)
10.15%
max drawdown
8.89%
sharpe
—
ulcer index
4.60%
RMS drawdown
pain index
2.69%
mean drawdown
mod. VaR 95%
0.00%
Cornish-Fisher
martin ratio
—
ret / ulcer
CDaR 95%
8.89%
cond. drawdown
gain/pain
1.11
Σgain / Σ|loss|
sterling
—
ret / CDaR
omega (θ=0)
1.11
upside/downside
roll spread
0.2 bps
implied (price-only)
bars used
2000
store
spread
—
24h Δ
7.32%
flow lean
—
carry
flat
signalNEUTRALconfidence 25%
- 24h change +7.32%
Same bundle via M2M API:
/api/m2m/pm-will-ronaldo-caiado-win-the-2026-brazilian-presidential-election/bundle · venue execution: polymarket →