TF-IDF basket · Engle-Granger pairs · Polymarket

Related to Will Congo DR win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Markets in the same TF-IDF topic cluster, with a 7-day Engle-Granger cointegration screen against each peer. Pairs with t-statistic below −3.34 reject the null of no cointegration at the 5% level — meaning the two markets share a stationary spread useful for relative-value trades.

§1 · Topic basket · “portugal · dr · congo” (3 markets)

Top terms: portugaldrcongofifacupworld

Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17?75.5¢ YES · $30.3k 24h
★ Will Congo DR win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?0.1¢ YES · $1.03M 24h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?11.3¢ YES · $1.72M 24h

§2 · Engle-Granger cointegration screen (2 pairs tested)

For each peer, 7d aligned series are regressed; the residuals are tested for a unit root (ADF). Reject H₀ (no cointegration) at 5% when t < −3.34. Cointegrated pairs share a stationary spread — candidates for pairs / basket trades.

Peer	t-stat	n	Verdict
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	-2.619	169	no rejection · independent
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17?	-1.655	169	no rejection · independent

▸ Advanced metrics · M2M bundle

polymarket · will-congo-dr-win-the-2026-fifa-world-cup · fresh · feed 0s old

realized vol (ann.)

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max drawdown

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sharpe

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ulcer index

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RMS drawdown

pain index

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mean drawdown

mod. VaR 95%

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Cornish-Fisher

martin ratio

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ret / ulcer

CDaR 95%

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cond. drawdown

gain/pain

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Σgain / Σ|loss|

sterling

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ret / CDaR

omega (θ=0)

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upside/downside

roll spread

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implied (price-only)

bars used

insufficient

spread

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24h Δ

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flow lean

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carry

flat

signalNEUTRALconfidence 0%

insufficient history for risk metrics — directional read only

Same bundle via M2M API: /api/m2m/pm-will-congo-dr-win-the-2026-fifa-world-cup/bundle · venue execution: polymarket →