TF-IDF basket · Engle-Granger pairs · Polymarket

Related to Will Bitcoin reach $66,000 on June 14?

Markets in the same TF-IDF topic cluster, with a 7-day Engle-Granger cointegration screen against each peer. Pairs with t-statistic below −3.34 reject the null of no cointegration at the 5% level — meaning the two markets share a stationary spread useful for relative-value trades.

§1 · Topic basket · “bitcoin · crypto · 000” (34 markets)

Top terms: bitcoincrypto000junepriceabove

Will the price of Bitcoin be above $52,000 on June 16?99.9¢ YES · $25.6k 24h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $54,000 on June 15?100.0¢ YES · $25.7k 24h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 15?100.0¢ YES · $102.8k 24h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 15?100.0¢ YES · $158.5k 24h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 15?99.7¢ YES · $60.7k 24h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 19?96.3¢ YES · $28.0k 24h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 15?98.8¢ YES · $102.8k 24h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 15?93.5¢ YES · $66.4k 24h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 15?39.5¢ YES · $95.3k 24h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 15?4.9¢ YES · $141.7k 24h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 15?0.9¢ YES · $62.9k 24h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 15?0.3¢ YES · $37.9k 24h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on June 15?0.1¢ YES · $34.8k 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 15?93.5¢ YES · $111.2k 24h
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on June 15?6.8¢ YES · $48.2k 24h
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in June?3.4¢ YES · $80.3k 24h
Will Bitcoin dip to $52,500 in June?5.3¢ YES · $79.9k 24h
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in June?7.7¢ YES · $136.6k 24h
Will Bitcoin dip to $56,000 June 8-14?0.1¢ YES · $29.7k 24h
Will Bitcoin dip to $58,000 June 8-14?0.1¢ YES · $51.4k 24h
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 June 8-14?0.1¢ YES · $37.4k 24h
Will Bitcoin dip to $62,000 on June 14?0.6¢ YES · $49.8k 24h
Will Bitcoin dip to $63,000 on June 14?0.5¢ YES · $88.0k 24h
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in June?0.3¢ YES · $112.6k 24h
Will Bitcoin reach $190,000 by December 31, 2026?2.0¢ YES · $31.0k 24h
Will Bitcoin reach $65,000 in June?100.0¢ YES · $191.1k 24h
Will Bitcoin reach $66,000 June 8-14?60.8¢ YES · $118.3k 24h
★ Will Bitcoin reach $66,000 on June 14?62.7¢ YES · $87.2k 24h
Will Bitcoin reach $68,000 June 8-14?1.8¢ YES · $47.4k 24h
Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 in June?37.5¢ YES · $67.5k 24h
Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 in June?8.5¢ YES · $27.0k 24h
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in June?2.6¢ YES · $119.7k 24h
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in June?0.4¢ YES · $28.1k 24h
Will Microstrategy announce a Bitcoin purchase June 9-15?99.4¢ YES · $32.0k 24h

§2 · Engle-Granger cointegration screen (0 pairs tested)

For each peer, 7d aligned series are regressed; the residuals are tested for a unit root (ADF). Reject H₀ (no cointegration) at 5% when t < −3.34. Cointegrated pairs share a stationary spread — candidates for pairs / basket trades.

Not enough history to test pairs (minimum 24 aligned points required).

▸ Advanced metrics · M2M bundle

polymarket · will-bitcoin-reach-66k-on-june-14 · fresh · feed 0s old

24h sparkline · 60 pts▼ —

realized vol (ann.)

3226.30%

max drawdown

56.01%

sharpe

—

ulcer index

24.99%

RMS drawdown

pain index

17.88%

mean drawdown

mod. VaR 95%

0.00%

Cornish-Fisher

martin ratio

—

ret / ulcer

CDaR 95%

56.01%

cond. drawdown

gain/pain

2.21

Σgain / Σ|loss|

sterling

—

ret / CDaR

omega (θ=0)

2.21

upside/downside

roll spread

45.1 bps

implied (price-only)

bars used

645

store

spread

—

24h Δ

—

flow lean

—

carry

flat

signalNEUTRALconfidence 20%

Same bundle via M2M API: /api/m2m/pm-will-bitcoin-reach-66k-on-june-14/bundle · venue execution: polymarket →