TF-IDF basket · Engle-Granger pairs · Polymarket

Related to Will Bitcoin hit $150k by June 30, 2026?

Markets in the same TF-IDF topic cluster, with a 7-day Engle-Granger cointegration screen against each peer. Pairs with t-statistic below −3.34 reject the null of no cointegration at the 5% level — meaning the two markets share a stationary spread useful for relative-value trades.

§1 · Topic basket · “market · cap · $150k” (7 markets)

Top terms: marketcap$150ktechbusinesshit

Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?1.0¢ YES · $27.2k 24h
Will Bitcoin hit $150k by December 31, 2026?4.5¢ YES · $27.8k 24h
★ Will Bitcoin hit $150k by June 30, 2026?0.1¢ YES · $68.3k 24h
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30?97.7¢ YES · $24.5k 24h
Will Revolut have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026?0.1¢ YES · $53.1k 24h
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.5T at market close on last trading day of IPO month?51.0¢ YES · $26.9k 24h
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.5T and $3.0T at market close on last trading day of IPO month?25.6¢ YES · $17.7k 24h

§2 · Engle-Granger cointegration screen (6 pairs tested)

For each peer, 7d aligned series are regressed; the residuals are tested for a unit root (ADF). Reject H₀ (no cointegration) at 5% when t < −3.34. Cointegrated pairs share a stationary spread — candidates for pairs / basket trades.

Peer	t-stat	n	Verdict
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.5T at market close on last trading day of IPO month?	-2.710	168	no rejection · independent
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30?	-2.432	168	no rejection · independent
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?	-2.362	168	no rejection · independent
Will Bitcoin hit $150k by December 31, 2026?	-2.290	168	no rejection · independent
Will Revolut have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026?	-2.251	168	no rejection · independent
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.5T and $3.0T at market close on last trading day of IPO month?	-2.226	168	no rejection · independent

▸ Advanced metrics · M2M bundle

polymarket · will-bitcoin-hit-150k-by-june-30-2026 · fresh · feed 6s old

24h sparkline · 60 pts▼ —

realized vol (ann.)

0.00%

max drawdown

0.00%

sharpe

—

ulcer index

0.00%

RMS drawdown

pain index

0.00%

mean drawdown

mod. VaR 95%

0.00%

Cornish-Fisher

martin ratio

—

ret / ulcer

CDaR 95%

0.00%

cond. drawdown

gain/pain

—

Σgain / Σ|loss|

sterling

—

ret / CDaR

omega (θ=0)

1.00

upside/downside

roll spread

0.0 bps

implied (price-only)

bars used

542

store

spread

—

24h Δ

—

flow lean

—

carry

flat

signalNEUTRALconfidence 20%

Same bundle via M2M API: /api/m2m/pm-will-bitcoin-hit-150k-by-june-30-2026/bundle · venue execution: polymarket →