TF-IDF basket · Engle-Granger pairs · Polymarket
Related to UFC Freedom 250: Kyle Daukaus vs. Bo Nickal (Middleweight, Main Card)
Markets in the same TF-IDF topic cluster, with a 7-day Engle-Granger cointegration screen against each peer. Pairs with t-statistic below −3.34 reject the null of no cointegration at the 5% level — meaning the two markets share a stationary spread useful for relative-value trades.
§1 · Topic basket · “ufc · freedom · 250” (8 markets)
Top terms: ufcfreedom250maincardsports
- UFC Freedom 250: Aiemann Zahabi vs. Sean O'Malley (Bantamweight, Main Card)21.5¢ YES · $80.5k 24h
- UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card)49.5¢ YES · $555.3k 24h
- UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card)22.5¢ YES · $155.3k 24h
- UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Card)20.5¢ YES · $653.9k 24h
- ★ UFC Freedom 250: Kyle Daukaus vs. Bo Nickal (Middleweight, Main Card)27.5¢ YES · $27.3k 24h
- UFC Freedom 250: Michael Chandler vs. Mauricio Ruffy (Lightweight, Main Card)19.5¢ YES · $94.4k 24h
- UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Card)44.5¢ YES · $222.0k 24h
- Will Lionel Messi attend UFC Freedom 250?0.4¢ YES · $502.9k 24h
§2 · Engle-Granger cointegration screen (7 pairs tested)
For each peer, 7d aligned series are regressed; the residuals are tested for a unit root (ADF). Reject H₀ (no cointegration) at 5% when t < −3.34. Cointegrated pairs share a stationary spread — candidates for pairs / basket trades.
| Peer | t-stat | n | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|
| -3.590 | 169 | ▲ cointegrated · pair candidate | |
| -3.479 | 169 | ▲ cointegrated · pair candidate | |
| -3.031 | 169 | no rejection · independent | |
| -2.878 | 169 | no rejection · independent | |
| -2.833 | 169 | no rejection · independent | |
| -2.796 | 169 | no rejection · independent | |
| -2.683 | 169 | no rejection · independent |
▸ Advanced metrics · M2M bundle
polymarket · ufc-kyl3-bon-2026-06-14 · fresh · feed 0s old24h sparkline · 60 pts▼ —
realized vol (ann.)
44.77%
max drawdown
0.00%
sharpe
—
ulcer index
0.00%
RMS drawdown
pain index
0.00%
mean drawdown
mod. VaR 95%
0.00%
Cornish-Fisher
martin ratio
—
ret / ulcer
CDaR 95%
0.00%
cond. drawdown
gain/pain
—
Σgain / Σ|loss|
sterling
—
ret / CDaR
omega (θ=0)
—
upside/downside
roll spread
0.8 bps
implied (price-only)
bars used
875
store
spread
—
24h Δ
—
flow lean
—
carry
flat
signalNEUTRALconfidence 20%
Same bundle via M2M API:
/api/m2m/pm-ufc-kyl3-bon-2026-06-14/bundle · venue execution: polymarket →