TF-IDF basket · Engle-Granger pairs · Polymarket

Related to UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card)

Markets in the same TF-IDF topic cluster, with a 7-day Engle-Granger cointegration screen against each peer. Pairs with t-statistic below −3.34 reject the null of no cointegration at the 5% level — meaning the two markets share a stationary spread useful for relative-value trades.

§1 · Topic basket · “ufc · freedom · 250” (8 markets)

Top terms: ufcfreedom250maincardsports

UFC Freedom 250: Aiemann Zahabi vs. Sean O'Malley (Bantamweight, Main Card)21.0¢ YES · $84.9k 24h
★ UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card)49.5¢ YES · $632.6k 24h
UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card)22.5¢ YES · $213.0k 24h
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Card)20.5¢ YES · $707.2k 24h
UFC Freedom 250: Kyle Daukaus vs. Bo Nickal (Middleweight, Main Card)27.5¢ YES · $47.2k 24h
UFC Freedom 250: Michael Chandler vs. Mauricio Ruffy (Lightweight, Main Card)19.5¢ YES · $103.3k 24h
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Card)44.5¢ YES · $300.6k 24h
Will Lionel Messi attend UFC Freedom 250?0.6¢ YES · $628.6k 24h

§2 · Engle-Granger cointegration screen (7 pairs tested)

For each peer, 7d aligned series are regressed; the residuals are tested for a unit root (ADF). Reject H₀ (no cointegration) at 5% when t < −3.34. Cointegrated pairs share a stationary spread — candidates for pairs / basket trades.

Peer	t-stat	n	Verdict
UFC Freedom 250: Michael Chandler vs. Mauricio Ruffy (Lightweight, Main Card)	-3.149	169	no rejection · independent
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Card)	-3.110	169	no rejection · independent
UFC Freedom 250: Aiemann Zahabi vs. Sean O'Malley (Bantamweight, Main Card)	-3.028	169	no rejection · independent
UFC Freedom 250: Kyle Daukaus vs. Bo Nickal (Middleweight, Main Card)	-2.779	169	no rejection · independent
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Card)	-2.551	169	no rejection · independent
UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card)	-2.543	169	no rejection · independent
Will Lionel Messi attend UFC Freedom 250?	-2.336	169	no rejection · independent

▸ Advanced metrics · M2M bundle

polymarket · ufc-cir-ale30-2026-06-14 · fresh · feed 0s old

realized vol (ann.)

—

max drawdown

—

sharpe

—

ulcer index

—

RMS drawdown

pain index

—

mean drawdown

mod. VaR 95%

—

Cornish-Fisher

martin ratio

—

ret / ulcer

CDaR 95%

—

cond. drawdown

gain/pain

—

Σgain / Σ|loss|

sterling

—

ret / CDaR

omega (θ=0)

—

upside/downside

roll spread

—

implied (price-only)

bars used

insufficient

spread

—

24h Δ

—

flow lean

—

carry

flat

signalNEUTRALconfidence 0%

insufficient history for risk metrics — directional read only

Same bundle via M2M API: /api/m2m/pm-ufc-cir-ale30-2026-06-14/bundle · venue execution: polymarket →