TF-IDF basket · Engle-Granger pairs · Polymarket
Related to Modi out by December 31, 2026?
Markets in the same TF-IDF topic cluster, with a 7-day Engle-Granger cointegration screen against each peer. Pairs with t-statistic below −3.34 reject the null of no cointegration at the 5% level — meaning the two markets share a stationary spread useful for relative-value trades.
§1 · Topic basket · “hormuz · 31 · agrees” (14 markets)
Top terms: hormuz31agreesuraniumtrafficreturns
- Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31?76.0¢ YES · $32.5k 24h
- Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by July 31?68.0¢ YES · $33.2k 24h
- Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?70.5¢ YES · $867.4k 24h
- Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026?2.5¢ YES · $133.1k 24h
- Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by June 30?6.5¢ YES · $126.7k 24h
- ★ Modi out by December 31, 2026?6.2¢ YES · $53.0k 24h
- Starmer out by December 31, 2026?86.5¢ YES · $23.8k 24h
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?90.5¢ YES · $138.6k 24h
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?17.5¢ YES · $1.13M 24h
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15?37.5¢ YES · $193.0k 24h
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?53.0¢ YES · $169.4k 24h
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15?0.3¢ YES · $228.9k 24h
- US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30?0.4¢ YES · $83.6k 24h
- US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026?95.5¢ YES · $184.3k 24h
§2 · Engle-Granger cointegration screen (8 pairs tested)
For each peer, 7d aligned series are regressed; the residuals are tested for a unit root (ADF). Reject H₀ (no cointegration) at 5% when t < −3.34. Cointegrated pairs share a stationary spread — candidates for pairs / basket trades.
| Peer | t-stat | n | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|
| -2.795 | 169 | no rejection · independent | |
| -1.993 | 169 | no rejection · independent | |
| -1.952 | 169 | no rejection · independent | |
| -1.950 | 169 | no rejection · independent | |
| -1.814 | 169 | no rejection · independent | |
| -1.431 | 169 | no rejection · independent | |
| -0.001 | 169 | no rejection · independent | |
| 0.916 | 169 | no rejection · independent |
▸ Advanced metrics · M2M bundle
polymarket · modi-out-before-2027 · fresh · feed 8s old24h sparkline · 60 pts▼ —
realized vol (ann.)
25.40%
max drawdown
15.75%
sharpe
—
ulcer index
12.46%
RMS drawdown
pain index
11.46%
mean drawdown
mod. VaR 95%
0.01%
Cornish-Fisher
martin ratio
—
ret / ulcer
CDaR 95%
15.75%
cond. drawdown
gain/pain
0.58
Σgain / Σ|loss|
sterling
—
ret / CDaR
omega (θ=0)
0.58
upside/downside
roll spread
2.2 bps
implied (price-only)
bars used
1459
store
spread
—
24h Δ
—
flow lean
—
carry
flat
signalNEUTRALconfidence 20%
Same bundle via M2M API:
/api/m2m/pm-modi-out-before-2027/bundle · venue execution: polymarket →