TF-IDF basket · Engle-Granger pairs · Polymarket
Related to Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by July 31?
Markets in the same TF-IDF topic cluster, with a 7-day Engle-Granger cointegration screen against each peer. Pairs with t-statistic below −3.34 reject the null of no cointegration at the 5% level — meaning the two markets share a stationary spread useful for relative-value trades.
§1 · Topic basket · “kharg · island · longer” (3 markets)
Top terms: khargislandlongercontroliranian24
- ★ Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by July 31?3.5¢ YES · $54.0k 24h
- Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 24?0.8¢ YES · $68.3k 24h
- Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30?1.3¢ YES · $664.3k 24h
§2 · Engle-Granger cointegration screen (2 pairs tested)
For each peer, 7d aligned series are regressed; the residuals are tested for a unit root (ADF). Reject H₀ (no cointegration) at 5% when t < −3.34. Cointegrated pairs share a stationary spread — candidates for pairs / basket trades.
| Peer | t-stat | n | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|
| -5.517 | 81 | ▲ cointegrated · pair candidate | |
| -4.314 | 81 | ▲ cointegrated · pair candidate |
▸ Advanced metrics · M2M bundle
polymarket · kharg-island-no-longer-under-iranian-control-by-july-31 · fresh · feed 0s old24h sparkline · 60 pts▼ —
realized vol (ann.)
74.43%
max drawdown
41.67%
sharpe
—
ulcer index
20.46%
RMS drawdown
pain index
15.18%
mean drawdown
mod. VaR 95%
0.00%
Cornish-Fisher
martin ratio
—
ret / ulcer
CDaR 95%
41.67%
cond. drawdown
gain/pain
0.44
Σgain / Σ|loss|
sterling
—
ret / CDaR
omega (θ=0)
0.44
upside/downside
roll spread
7.1 bps
implied (price-only)
bars used
1114
store
spread
—
24h Δ
—
flow lean
—
carry
flat
signalNEUTRALconfidence 20%
Same bundle via M2M API:
/api/m2m/pm-kharg-island-no-longer-under-iranian-control-by-july-31/bundle · venue execution: polymarket →