TF-IDF basket · Engle-Granger pairs · Polymarket
Related to Will Paraguay vs. Australia end in a draw?
Markets in the same TF-IDF topic cluster, with a 7-day Engle-Granger cointegration screen against each peer. Pairs with t-statistic below −3.34 reject the null of no cointegration at the 5% level — meaning the two markets share a stationary spread useful for relative-value trades.
§1 · Topic basket · “australia · advance · knockout” (11 markets)
Top terms: australiaadvanceknockoutstagesparaguaycup
- ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Australia vs Netherlands100.0¢ YES · $87.3k 24h
- Kwibuka T20 Tournament, Women: Brazil vs Nigeria0.1¢ YES · $24.6k 24h
- ★ Will Paraguay vs. Australia end in a draw?41.5¢ YES · $177.8k 24h
- Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-25?34.5¢ YES · $26.7k 24h
- Will Australia advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?89.0¢ YES · $30.4k 24h
- Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?0.4¢ YES · $787.6k 24h
- Will Croatia advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?74.5¢ YES · $27.7k 24h
- Will Morocco advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?99.9¢ YES · $39.5k 24h
- Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?0.1¢ YES · $3.10M 24h
- Will Scotland advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?67.5¢ YES · $45.5k 24h
- Will Switzerland advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?99.9¢ YES · $80.0k 24h
§2 · Engle-Granger cointegration screen (7 pairs tested)
For each peer, 7d aligned series are regressed; the residuals are tested for a unit root (ADF). Reject H₀ (no cointegration) at 5% when t < −3.34. Cointegrated pairs share a stationary spread — candidates for pairs / basket trades.
| Peer | t-stat | n | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|
| -2.546 | 168 | no rejection · independent | |
| -0.178 | 168 | no rejection · independent | |
| 0.421 | 67 | no rejection · independent | |
| 0.717 | 168 | no rejection · independent | |
| 1.147 | 168 | no rejection · independent | |
| 1.289 | 168 | no rejection · independent | |
| 1.537 | 168 | no rejection · independent |
▸ Advanced metrics · M2M bundle
polymarket · fifwc-par-aus-2026-06-25-draw · fresh · feed 3s old24h sparkline · 60 pts▼ —
realized vol (ann.)
58.52%
max drawdown
0.00%
sharpe
—
ulcer index
0.00%
RMS drawdown
pain index
0.00%
mean drawdown
mod. VaR 95%
0.00%
Cornish-Fisher
martin ratio
—
ret / ulcer
CDaR 95%
0.00%
cond. drawdown
gain/pain
—
Σgain / Σ|loss|
sterling
—
ret / CDaR
omega (θ=0)
—
upside/downside
roll spread
1.0 bps
implied (price-only)
bars used
1023
store
spread
—
24h Δ
—
flow lean
—
carry
flat
signalNEUTRALconfidence 20%
Same bundle via M2M API:
/api/m2m/pm-fifwc-par-aus-2026-06-25-draw/bundle · venue execution: polymarket →