TF-IDF basket · Engle-Granger pairs · Polymarket

Related to Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score

Markets in the same TF-IDF topic cluster, with a 7-day Engle-Granger cointegration screen against each peer. Pairs with t-statistic below −3.34 reject the null of no cointegration at the 5% level — meaning the two markets share a stationary spread useful for relative-value trades.

§1 · Topic basket · “canada · qatar · markets” (11 markets)

Top terms: canadaqatarmarketsbothteamsspread

Canada vs. Qatar: Both Teams to Score42.5¢ YES · $40.2k 24h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18?76.5¢ YES · $485.9k 24h
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw?16.5¢ YES · $145.3k 24h
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18?7.5¢ YES · $203.7k 24h
Spread: Canada (-1.5)52.5¢ YES · $266.9k 24h
Spread: Canada (-3.5)14.5¢ YES · $21.9k 24h
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 1.579.5¢ YES · $26.9k 24h
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 2.556.5¢ YES · $133.1k 24h
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 5.57.3¢ YES · $38.6k 24h
Czechia vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score49.5¢ YES · $99.1k 24h
★ Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score50.5¢ YES · $179.7k 24h

§2 · Engle-Granger cointegration screen (8 pairs tested)

For each peer, 7d aligned series are regressed; the residuals are tested for a unit root (ADF). Reject H₀ (no cointegration) at 5% when t < −3.34. Cointegrated pairs share a stationary spread — candidates for pairs / basket trades.

Peer	t-stat	n	Verdict
Spread: Canada (-3.5)	-2.718	137	no rejection · independent
Canada vs. Qatar: Both Teams to Score	-1.677	169	no rejection · independent
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 1.5	-0.684	169	no rejection · independent
Spread: Canada (-1.5)	-0.419	169	no rejection · independent
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 2.5	-0.280	169	no rejection · independent
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18?	0.148	169	no rejection · independent
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18?	0.231	169	no rejection · independent
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw?	0.299	169	no rejection · independent

▸ Advanced metrics · M2M bundle

polymarket · fifwc-mex-kr-2026-06-18-btts · fresh · feed 0s old

24h sparkline · 60 pts▼ —

realized vol (ann.)

59.64%

max drawdown

0.00%

sharpe

—

ulcer index

0.00%

RMS drawdown

pain index

0.00%

mean drawdown

mod. VaR 95%

0.00%

Cornish-Fisher

martin ratio

—

ret / ulcer

CDaR 95%

0.00%

cond. drawdown

gain/pain

—

Σgain / Σ|loss|

sterling

—

ret / CDaR

omega (θ=0)

—

upside/downside

roll spread

0.8 bps

implied (price-only)

bars used

1967

store

spread

—

24h Δ

—

flow lean

—

carry

flat

signalNEUTRALconfidence 20%

Same bundle via M2M API: /api/m2m/pm-fifwc-mex-kr-2026-06-18-btts/bundle · venue execution: polymarket →